This article proposes a Gaussian process(GP) based model predictive control(MPC) method to solve the tracking control of wheeled mobile robot( WMR) with uncertain model parameters.Firstly,a Gaussian process velocity p...This article proposes a Gaussian process(GP) based model predictive control(MPC) method to solve the tracking control of wheeled mobile robot( WMR) with uncertain model parameters.Firstly,a Gaussian process velocity prediction model is proposed to compensate for the unknown dynamic model,as the kinematic model cannot accurately characterize the motion characteristics of the robot.Then,by introducing the Lorentz function,the improved iterative linear quadratic regulator(iLQR) method is used to solve the nonlinear MPC(NMPC) controller with constraints.In addition,in order to reduce computational burden,a closed gradient calculation method is introduced to improve algorithm efficiency.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of this method are verified through simulation and experiment.展开更多
In this paper,we propose a novel probabilistic method for predicting the undrained bearing capacity of spatially variable soils.Our approach combines a Gaussian process regression(GPR)-based surrogate model with rando...In this paper,we propose a novel probabilistic method for predicting the undrained bearing capacity of spatially variable soils.Our approach combines a Gaussian process regression(GPR)-based surrogate model with random cell-based smoothed finite analysis.The Gaussian process emulator(GPE)serves as a statistical tool for making predictions from a data set.First,we validate the accuracy and efficiency of kinematic limit analysis using the cell-based smoothed finite element method(CS-FEM)against the standard finite element method(FEM)and edge-based smoothed FEM(ES-FEM).The numerical results demonstrate that the CS-FEM framework surpasses traditional numerical approaches,establishing its reliability in computing collapse loads.Subsequently,we conduct several hundred simulations to develop a surrogate model for predicting the undrained bearing capacity of shallow foundations.By utilizing various kernel functions,we enhance the accuracy of the GPE in these predictions.This method offers a practical and efficient solution,effectively addressing multiple uncertainties.Numerical results indicate that the GPE significantly boosts computational efficiency,achieving satisfactory outcomes within minutes compared to the days required for conventional simulations.Notably,the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)decreases from 2.38%to 1.82%for rough foundations when employing Matérn and rational quadratic kernel functions,respectively.Additionally,combining different kernel functions further enhances the accuracy of collapse load predictions.展开更多
Robot interaction control with variable impedance parameters may conform to task requirements during continuous interaction with dynamic environments.Iterative learning(IL)is effective to learn desired impedance param...Robot interaction control with variable impedance parameters may conform to task requirements during continuous interaction with dynamic environments.Iterative learning(IL)is effective to learn desired impedance parameters for robots under unknown environments,and Gaussian process(GP)is a nonparametric Bayesian approach that models complicated functions with provable confidence using limited data.In this paper,we propose an impedance IL method enhanced by a sparse online Gaussian process(SOGP)to speed up learning convergence and improve generalization.The SOGP for variable impedance modeling is updated in the same iteration by removing similar data points from previous iterations while learning impedance parameters in multiple iterations.The proposed IL-SOGP method is verified by high-fidelity simulations of a collaborative robot with 7 degrees of freedom based on the admittance control framework.It is shown that the proposed method accelerates iterative convergence and improves generalization compared to the classical IL-based impedance learning method.展开更多
The packaging quality of coaxial laser diodes(CLDs)plays a pivotal role in determining their optical performance and long-term reliability.As the core packaging process,high-precision laser welding requires precise co...The packaging quality of coaxial laser diodes(CLDs)plays a pivotal role in determining their optical performance and long-term reliability.As the core packaging process,high-precision laser welding requires precise control of process parameters to suppress optical power loss.However,the complex nonlinear relationship between welding parameters and optical power loss renders traditional trial-and-error methods inefficient and imprecise.To address this challenge,a physics-informed(PI)and data-driven collaboration approach for welding parameter optimization is proposed.First,thermal-fluid-solid coupling finite element method(FEM)was employed to quantify the sensitivity of welding parameters to physical characteristics,including residual stress.This analysis facilitated the identification of critical factors contributing to optical power loss.Subsequently,a Gaussian process regression(GPR)model incorporating finite element simulation prior knowledge was constructed based on the selected features.By introducing physics-informed kernel(PIK)functions,stress distribution patterns were embedded into the prediction model,achieving high-precision optical power loss prediction.Finally,a Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm with an adaptive sampling strategy was implemented for efficient parameter space exploration.Experimental results demonstrate that the proposedmethod effectively establishes explicit physical correlations between welding parameters and optical power loss.The optimized welding parameters reduced optical power loss by 34.1%,providing theoretical guidance and technical support for reliable CLD packaging.展开更多
Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)imaging method(GIM)has been successfully applied to global regions to investigate vertical land motion(VLM)of the Earth's surface.GNSS images derived from conventional GIM m...Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)imaging method(GIM)has been successfully applied to global regions to investigate vertical land motion(VLM)of the Earth's surface.GNSS images derived from conventional GIM method may present fragmented patches and encounter problems caused by excessive smoothing of velocity peaks,leading to difficulty in short-wavelength deformation detection and improper geophysical interpretation.Therefore,we propose a novel GNSS imaging method based on Gaussian process regression with velocity uncertainty considered(GPR-VU).Gaussian processing regression is introduced to describe the spatial relationship between neighboring site pairs as a priori weights and then reweight velocities by known station uncertainties,converting the discrete velocity field to a continuous one.The GPR-VU method is applied to reconstruct VLM images in the southwestern United States and the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,China,using the GNSS position time series in vertical direction.Compared to the traditional GIM method,the root-mean-square(RMS)and overall accuracy of the confusion matrix of the GPR-VU method increase by 5.0%and 14.0%from the 1°×1°checkerboard test in the southwestern United States.Similarly,the RMS and overall accuracy increase by 33.7%and 15.8%from the 6°×6°checkerboard test in the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.These checkerboard tests validate the capability to effectively capture the spatiotemporal variations characteristics of VLM and show that this algorithm outperforms the sparsely distributed network in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The images from the GPR-VU method using real data in both regions show significant subsidence around Lassen Volcanic in northern California within a 30 km radius,slight uplift in the northern Sichuan Basin,and subsidence in its central and southern sections.These results further qualitatively illustrate consistency with previous findings.The GPR-VU method outperforms in diminishing the effect by fragmented patches,excessive smoothing of velocity peaks,and detecting potential short-wavelength deformations.展开更多
The conventional single model strategy may be ill- suited due to the multiplicity of operation phases and system uncertainty. A novel global-local discriminant analysis （GLDA） based Gaussian process regression （GPR...The conventional single model strategy may be ill- suited due to the multiplicity of operation phases and system uncertainty. A novel global-local discriminant analysis （GLDA） based Gaussian process regression （GPR） approach is developed for the quality prediction of nonlinear and multiphase batch processes. After the collected data is preprocessed through batchwise unfolding, the hidden Markov model （HMM） is applied to identify different operation phases. A GLDA algorithm is also presented to extract the appropriate process variables highly correlated with the quality variables, decreasing the complexity of modeling. Besides, the multiple local GPR models are built in the reduced- dimensional space for all the identified operation phases. Furthermore, the HMM-based state estimation is used to classify each measurement sample of a test batch into a corresponding phase with the maximal likelihood estimation. Therefore, the local GPR model with respect to specific phase is selected for online prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed prediction approach is demonstrated through the multiphase penicillin fermentation process. The comparison results show that the proposed GLDA-GPR approach is superior to the regular GPR model and the GPR based on HMM （HMM-GPR） model.展开更多
The tensile properties and fatigue behavior of an Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloy were investigated by performing tensile tests and fatigue crack propagation （FCP） tests. The tensile results show that lower aging temperature modi...The tensile properties and fatigue behavior of an Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloy were investigated by performing tensile tests and fatigue crack propagation （FCP） tests. The tensile results show that lower aging temperature modified retrogression and re-aging （RRA） process enhances the elongation, but reduces the strength of the alloy, as compared to conventional RRA process which employs peak aging temperature. Both ductility and strength, however, are increased by employing a natural aging prior to re-aging based on the former modified RRA process. Fatigue test results show that both routes reduce FCP rate. Especially, the lower re-aging temperature modified RRA process obtains the lowest FCP rate. Natural aging treatment could enhance the nucleation rate of GP zones. A large amount of GP zones could be cut by dislocations, which is responsible for the highest tensile strength and elongation, as well as lower FCP rate.展开更多
High pressure die casting (HPDC) is a versatile material processing method for mass-production of metal parts with complex geometries,and this method has been widely used in manufacturing various products of excellent...High pressure die casting (HPDC) is a versatile material processing method for mass-production of metal parts with complex geometries,and this method has been widely used in manufacturing various products of excellent dimensional accuracy and productivity. In order to ensure the quality of the components,a number of variables need to be properly set. A novel methodology for high pressure die casting process optimization was developed,validated and applied to selection of optimal parameters,which incorporate design of experiment (DOE),Gaussian process (GP) regression technique and genetic algorithms (GA). This new approach was applied to process optimization for cast magnesium alloy notebook shell. After being trained,using data generated by PROCAST (FEM-based simulation software),the GP model approximated well with the simulation by extracting useful information from the simulation results. With the help of MATLAB,the GP/GA based approach has achieved the optimum solution of die casting process condition settings.展开更多
Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples acco...Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression （GPR）. Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee mactnne is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemical processes.展开更多
Let {Xi}i=1^∞ be a standardized stationary Gaussian sequence with covariance function τ（n） =EX1Xn＋1, Sn =∑i=1^nXi,and X^-n=Sn/n.And let Nn be the point process formed by the exceedances of random level （x/√2 l...Let {Xi}i=1^∞ be a standardized stationary Gaussian sequence with covariance function τ（n） =EX1Xn＋1, Sn =∑i=1^nXi,and X^-n=Sn/n.And let Nn be the point process formed by the exceedances of random level （x/√2 log n＋√2 log n-log（4π log n）/2√log n） √1-τ（n） ＋ X^-n by X1,X2,…, Xn. Under some mild conditions, Nn and Sn are asymptotically independent, and Nn converges weakly to a Poisson process on （0,1].展开更多
Teleseismic and GPS data were jointly inverted for the rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The inversion results show that it is a bilateral rupture event with an average rupture velocity less than 2.0 km/s...Teleseismic and GPS data were jointly inverted for the rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The inversion results show that it is a bilateral rupture event with an average rupture velocity less than 2.0 km/s along the fault strike direction. The source rupture process consists of three sub-events, the first oc- curred near the hypocenter and the rest two ruptured along the up-dip direction and broke the sea bed, causing a maximum slip of about 30 m. The large-scale sea bed breakage may account for the tremendous tsunami disaster which resulted in most of the death and missing in this mega earthquake.展开更多
Ballistic Missile Trajectory Prediction(BMTP)is critical to air defense systems.Most Trajectory Prediction(TP)methods focus on the coast and reentry phases,in which the Ballistic Missile(BM)trajectories are modeled as...Ballistic Missile Trajectory Prediction(BMTP)is critical to air defense systems.Most Trajectory Prediction(TP)methods focus on the coast and reentry phases,in which the Ballistic Missile(BM)trajectories are modeled as ellipses or the state components are propagated by the dynamic integral equations on time scales.In contrast,the boost-phase TP is more challenging because there are many unknown forces acting on the BM in this phase.To tackle this difficult problem,a novel BMTP method by using Gaussian Processes(GPs)is proposed in this paper.In particular,the GP is employed to train the prediction error model of the boost-phase trajectory database,in which the error refers to the difference between the true BM state at the prediction moment and the integral extrapolation of the BM state.And the final BMTP is a combination of the dynamic equation based numerical integration and the GP-based prediction error.Since the trained GP aims to capture the relationship between the numerical integration and the unknown error,the modified BM state prediction is closer to the true one compared with the original TP.Furthermore,the GP is able to output the uncertainty information of the TP,which is of great significance for determining the warning range centered on the predicted BM state.Simulation results show that the proposed method effectively improves the BMTP accuracy during the boost phase and provides reliable uncertainty estimation boundaries.展开更多
A novel model named Multi-scale Gaussian Processes (MGP) is proposed. Motivated by the ideas of multi-scale representations in the wavelet theory, in the new model, a Gaussian process is represented at a scale by a li...A novel model named Multi-scale Gaussian Processes (MGP) is proposed. Motivated by the ideas of multi-scale representations in the wavelet theory, in the new model, a Gaussian process is represented at a scale by a linear basis that is composed of a scale function and its different translations. Finally the distribution of the targets of the given samples can be obtained at different scales. Compared with the standard Gaussian Processes (GP) model, the MGP model can control its complexity conveniently just by adjusting the scale pa-rameter. So it can trade-off the generalization ability and the empirical risk rapidly. Experiments verify the fea-sibility of the MGP model, and exhibit that its performance is superior to the GP model if appropriate scales are chosen.展开更多
基金Supported by the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No.LR23F030002)。
文摘This article proposes a Gaussian process(GP) based model predictive control(MPC) method to solve the tracking control of wheeled mobile robot( WMR) with uncertain model parameters.Firstly,a Gaussian process velocity prediction model is proposed to compensate for the unknown dynamic model,as the kinematic model cannot accurately characterize the motion characteristics of the robot.Then,by introducing the Lorentz function,the improved iterative linear quadratic regulator(iLQR) method is used to solve the nonlinear MPC(NMPC) controller with constraints.In addition,in order to reduce computational burden,a closed gradient calculation method is introduced to improve algorithm efficiency.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of this method are verified through simulation and experiment.
文摘In this paper,we propose a novel probabilistic method for predicting the undrained bearing capacity of spatially variable soils.Our approach combines a Gaussian process regression(GPR)-based surrogate model with random cell-based smoothed finite analysis.The Gaussian process emulator(GPE)serves as a statistical tool for making predictions from a data set.First,we validate the accuracy and efficiency of kinematic limit analysis using the cell-based smoothed finite element method(CS-FEM)against the standard finite element method(FEM)and edge-based smoothed FEM(ES-FEM).The numerical results demonstrate that the CS-FEM framework surpasses traditional numerical approaches,establishing its reliability in computing collapse loads.Subsequently,we conduct several hundred simulations to develop a surrogate model for predicting the undrained bearing capacity of shallow foundations.By utilizing various kernel functions,we enhance the accuracy of the GPE in these predictions.This method offers a practical and efficient solution,effectively addressing multiple uncertainties.Numerical results indicate that the GPE significantly boosts computational efficiency,achieving satisfactory outcomes within minutes compared to the days required for conventional simulations.Notably,the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)decreases from 2.38%to 1.82%for rough foundations when employing Matérn and rational quadratic kernel functions,respectively.Additionally,combining different kernel functions further enhances the accuracy of collapse load predictions.
基金supported in part by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)Grant Funded by the Korea Government(MSIT)(RS-2025-00555064).Recommended by Associate Editor Zengguang Hou.
文摘Robot interaction control with variable impedance parameters may conform to task requirements during continuous interaction with dynamic environments.Iterative learning(IL)is effective to learn desired impedance parameters for robots under unknown environments,and Gaussian process(GP)is a nonparametric Bayesian approach that models complicated functions with provable confidence using limited data.In this paper,we propose an impedance IL method enhanced by a sparse online Gaussian process(SOGP)to speed up learning convergence and improve generalization.The SOGP for variable impedance modeling is updated in the same iteration by removing similar data points from previous iterations while learning impedance parameters in multiple iterations.The proposed IL-SOGP method is verified by high-fidelity simulations of a collaborative robot with 7 degrees of freedom based on the admittance control framework.It is shown that the proposed method accelerates iterative convergence and improves generalization compared to the classical IL-based impedance learning method.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China,Grant No.2024YFF0504904.
文摘The packaging quality of coaxial laser diodes(CLDs)plays a pivotal role in determining their optical performance and long-term reliability.As the core packaging process,high-precision laser welding requires precise control of process parameters to suppress optical power loss.However,the complex nonlinear relationship between welding parameters and optical power loss renders traditional trial-and-error methods inefficient and imprecise.To address this challenge,a physics-informed(PI)and data-driven collaboration approach for welding parameter optimization is proposed.First,thermal-fluid-solid coupling finite element method(FEM)was employed to quantify the sensitivity of welding parameters to physical characteristics,including residual stress.This analysis facilitated the identification of critical factors contributing to optical power loss.Subsequently,a Gaussian process regression(GPR)model incorporating finite element simulation prior knowledge was constructed based on the selected features.By introducing physics-informed kernel(PIK)functions,stress distribution patterns were embedded into the prediction model,achieving high-precision optical power loss prediction.Finally,a Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm with an adaptive sampling strategy was implemented for efficient parameter space exploration.Experimental results demonstrate that the proposedmethod effectively establishes explicit physical correlations between welding parameters and optical power loss.The optimized welding parameters reduced optical power loss by 34.1%,providing theoretical guidance and technical support for reliable CLD packaging.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42274035)the Major Science and Technology Program for Hubei Province(No.2022AAA002)the Hunan Provincial Land Surveying and Mapping Project(HNGTCH-2023-05)。
文摘Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)imaging method(GIM)has been successfully applied to global regions to investigate vertical land motion(VLM)of the Earth's surface.GNSS images derived from conventional GIM method may present fragmented patches and encounter problems caused by excessive smoothing of velocity peaks,leading to difficulty in short-wavelength deformation detection and improper geophysical interpretation.Therefore,we propose a novel GNSS imaging method based on Gaussian process regression with velocity uncertainty considered(GPR-VU).Gaussian processing regression is introduced to describe the spatial relationship between neighboring site pairs as a priori weights and then reweight velocities by known station uncertainties,converting the discrete velocity field to a continuous one.The GPR-VU method is applied to reconstruct VLM images in the southwestern United States and the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,China,using the GNSS position time series in vertical direction.Compared to the traditional GIM method,the root-mean-square(RMS)and overall accuracy of the confusion matrix of the GPR-VU method increase by 5.0%and 14.0%from the 1°×1°checkerboard test in the southwestern United States.Similarly,the RMS and overall accuracy increase by 33.7%and 15.8%from the 6°×6°checkerboard test in the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.These checkerboard tests validate the capability to effectively capture the spatiotemporal variations characteristics of VLM and show that this algorithm outperforms the sparsely distributed network in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The images from the GPR-VU method using real data in both regions show significant subsidence around Lassen Volcanic in northern California within a 30 km radius,slight uplift in the northern Sichuan Basin,and subsidence in its central and southern sections.These results further qualitatively illustrate consistency with previous findings.The GPR-VU method outperforms in diminishing the effect by fragmented patches,excessive smoothing of velocity peaks,and detecting potential short-wavelength deformations.
基金The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.JUDCF12027,JUSRP51323B)the Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.CXLX12_0734)
文摘The conventional single model strategy may be ill- suited due to the multiplicity of operation phases and system uncertainty. A novel global-local discriminant analysis （GLDA） based Gaussian process regression （GPR） approach is developed for the quality prediction of nonlinear and multiphase batch processes. After the collected data is preprocessed through batchwise unfolding, the hidden Markov model （HMM） is applied to identify different operation phases. A GLDA algorithm is also presented to extract the appropriate process variables highly correlated with the quality variables, decreasing the complexity of modeling. Besides, the multiple local GPR models are built in the reduced- dimensional space for all the identified operation phases. Furthermore, the HMM-based state estimation is used to classify each measurement sample of a test batch into a corresponding phase with the maximal likelihood estimation. Therefore, the local GPR model with respect to specific phase is selected for online prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed prediction approach is demonstrated through the multiphase penicillin fermentation process. The comparison results show that the proposed GLDA-GPR approach is superior to the regular GPR model and the GPR based on HMM （HMM-GPR） model.
基金Project(51171209)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2012CB619506)supported by the National Basic Research Program of Chinasupported by the 2011 Program of Nonferrous Metals and Materials,China
文摘The tensile properties and fatigue behavior of an Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloy were investigated by performing tensile tests and fatigue crack propagation （FCP） tests. The tensile results show that lower aging temperature modified retrogression and re-aging （RRA） process enhances the elongation, but reduces the strength of the alloy, as compared to conventional RRA process which employs peak aging temperature. Both ductility and strength, however, are increased by employing a natural aging prior to re-aging based on the former modified RRA process. Fatigue test results show that both routes reduce FCP rate. Especially, the lower re-aging temperature modified RRA process obtains the lowest FCP rate. Natural aging treatment could enhance the nucleation rate of GP zones. A large amount of GP zones could be cut by dislocations, which is responsible for the highest tensile strength and elongation, as well as lower FCP rate.
文摘High pressure die casting (HPDC) is a versatile material processing method for mass-production of metal parts with complex geometries,and this method has been widely used in manufacturing various products of excellent dimensional accuracy and productivity. In order to ensure the quality of the components,a number of variables need to be properly set. A novel methodology for high pressure die casting process optimization was developed,validated and applied to selection of optimal parameters,which incorporate design of experiment (DOE),Gaussian process (GP) regression technique and genetic algorithms (GA). This new approach was applied to process optimization for cast magnesium alloy notebook shell. After being trained,using data generated by PROCAST (FEM-based simulation software),the GP model approximated well with the simulation by extracting useful information from the simulation results. With the help of MATLAB,the GP/GA based approach has achieved the optimum solution of die casting process condition settings.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (2006AA040309)National BasicResearch Program of China (2007CB714000)
文摘Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression （GPR）. Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee mactnne is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemical processes.
基金Supported by the Program for Excellent Talents in Chongqing Higher Education Institutions (120060-20600204)
文摘Let {Xi}i=1^∞ be a standardized stationary Gaussian sequence with covariance function τ（n） =EX1Xn＋1, Sn =∑i=1^nXi,and X^-n=Sn/n.And let Nn be the point process formed by the exceedances of random level （x/√2 log n＋√2 log n-log（4π log n）/2√log n） √1-τ（n） ＋ X^-n by X1,X2,…, Xn. Under some mild conditions, Nn and Sn are asymptotically independent, and Nn converges weakly to a Poisson process on （0,1].
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 90915012 and 41090291)the Research Project in Earthquake Science, CEA (No.201108002)
文摘Teleseismic and GPS data were jointly inverted for the rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The inversion results show that it is a bilateral rupture event with an average rupture velocity less than 2.0 km/s along the fault strike direction. The source rupture process consists of three sub-events, the first oc- curred near the hypocenter and the rest two ruptured along the up-dip direction and broke the sea bed, causing a maximum slip of about 30 m. The large-scale sea bed breakage may account for the tremendous tsunami disaster which resulted in most of the death and missing in this mega earthquake.
基金support from National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61873205,61771399)Aerospace Science Foundation of China(No.2019-HT-XGD)Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China(No.2020JM-101).
文摘Ballistic Missile Trajectory Prediction(BMTP)is critical to air defense systems.Most Trajectory Prediction(TP)methods focus on the coast and reentry phases,in which the Ballistic Missile(BM)trajectories are modeled as ellipses or the state components are propagated by the dynamic integral equations on time scales.In contrast,the boost-phase TP is more challenging because there are many unknown forces acting on the BM in this phase.To tackle this difficult problem,a novel BMTP method by using Gaussian Processes(GPs)is proposed in this paper.In particular,the GP is employed to train the prediction error model of the boost-phase trajectory database,in which the error refers to the difference between the true BM state at the prediction moment and the integral extrapolation of the BM state.And the final BMTP is a combination of the dynamic equation based numerical integration and the GP-based prediction error.Since the trained GP aims to capture the relationship between the numerical integration and the unknown error,the modified BM state prediction is closer to the true one compared with the original TP.Furthermore,the GP is able to output the uncertainty information of the TP,which is of great significance for determining the warning range centered on the predicted BM state.Simulation results show that the proposed method effectively improves the BMTP accuracy during the boost phase and provides reliable uncertainty estimation boundaries.
文摘A novel model named Multi-scale Gaussian Processes (MGP) is proposed. Motivated by the ideas of multi-scale representations in the wavelet theory, in the new model, a Gaussian process is represented at a scale by a linear basis that is composed of a scale function and its different translations. Finally the distribution of the targets of the given samples can be obtained at different scales. Compared with the standard Gaussian Processes (GP) model, the MGP model can control its complexity conveniently just by adjusting the scale pa-rameter. So it can trade-off the generalization ability and the empirical risk rapidly. Experiments verify the fea-sibility of the MGP model, and exhibit that its performance is superior to the GP model if appropriate scales are chosen.
