By creating a five-country I-O model of China, EU, US, Japan and other countries, this paper decomposes gross export into nine parts and investigates the GVC positions and competitiveness of China and the other three ...By creating a five-country I-O model of China, EU, US, Japan and other countries, this paper decomposes gross export into nine parts and investigates the GVC positions and competitiveness of China and the other three economies for different sectors using real domestic trade in value-added and GVC position indices. In addition, valueadded trade is taken into consideration to identify the labor division characteristics of the four economies in the GVC, which led to the following findings: China participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the downstream yet shows a significant tendency to move upstream in technology-intensive sectors; Japan participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the upstream and boasts an advantage in technology-intensive sectors; the US participates in the multiple links of the GVC at the upstream with superiority in hightechnology sectors; the EU participates in the production and export of intermediate goods and final goods at both ends.展开更多
Economic globalization in the 21st century has been characterized by the rise and spread of global value chains(GVCs).It faces significant challenges due to increasing domestic and international policy uncertainty in ...Economic globalization in the 21st century has been characterized by the rise and spread of global value chains(GVCs).It faces significant challenges due to increasing domestic and international policy uncertainty in the context of emerging mega risks like geopolitical tensions and climate change.This paper begins by constructing a theoretical model for an open economy to study how risk-averse firms make decisions regarding the sourcing of intermediate inputs in an uncertain environment.Our model solution proposes that firms will source fewer intermediate inputs from countries with more economic uncertainty.An increase in domestic and foreign uncertainty will have opposite impacts on a country's position in GVCs.In this sense,we argue that a country tends to move downstream along GVCs if its own economic policies become more uncertain,and it tends to move upstream with an increase in the uncertainty of its trading partner countries.Our regression analyses,based on data including the World Input-Output Database,World Development Indicators,the UN Comtrade database,and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index,provide empirical support for this model-based conclusion.Our findings highlight that a nation must consider foreign economic policy uncertainty and maintain domestic policy stability to participate in GVCs.展开更多
This paper quantifies the way in which the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)afects the restructuring of global value chains(GVCs).It incorporates an inputoutput structure into a general equilibrium mod...This paper quantifies the way in which the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)afects the restructuring of global value chains(GVCs).It incorporates an inputoutput structure into a general equilibrium model,highlighting important differences between intermediates and final goods.Using tarif reduction schedules for the RCEP agreement and Asian Development Bank Multi-Region Input-Output database,it evaluates the impact of the RCEP's tariff cuts on vertical specialization and the GVC position index of members.It shows that the RCEP significantly increased vertical specialization and the weighted average number of stages for members for primary factors of production and final consumption,which led to more complex and longer production chains.This was mainly due to the trade creation in intermediates imported from member countries and those outside it.This is an important finding,distinct from traditional trade models without aninput-output structure.展开更多
基金supported by“12th Five-year Plan of Guangdong Province for Philosophical and Social Sciences”“Study on the Effects of Rising Labor Cost on the Technical Innovation of Heterogeneous Exporting Firms”(Grant No.GD14XYJ10)
文摘By creating a five-country I-O model of China, EU, US, Japan and other countries, this paper decomposes gross export into nine parts and investigates the GVC positions and competitiveness of China and the other three economies for different sectors using real domestic trade in value-added and GVC position indices. In addition, valueadded trade is taken into consideration to identify the labor division characteristics of the four economies in the GVC, which led to the following findings: China participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the downstream yet shows a significant tendency to move upstream in technology-intensive sectors; Japan participates primarily in the single links of the GVC at the upstream and boasts an advantage in technology-intensive sectors; the US participates in the multiple links of the GVC at the upstream with superiority in hightechnology sectors; the EU participates in the production and export of intermediate goods and final goods at both ends.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72273125)the Zhejiang Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project(Nos.22NDQN203YB,22ZJQN13YB)the JapaneseKAKENproject(No.24K04853).
文摘Economic globalization in the 21st century has been characterized by the rise and spread of global value chains(GVCs).It faces significant challenges due to increasing domestic and international policy uncertainty in the context of emerging mega risks like geopolitical tensions and climate change.This paper begins by constructing a theoretical model for an open economy to study how risk-averse firms make decisions regarding the sourcing of intermediate inputs in an uncertain environment.Our model solution proposes that firms will source fewer intermediate inputs from countries with more economic uncertainty.An increase in domestic and foreign uncertainty will have opposite impacts on a country's position in GVCs.In this sense,we argue that a country tends to move downstream along GVCs if its own economic policies become more uncertain,and it tends to move upstream with an increase in the uncertainty of its trading partner countries.Our regression analyses,based on data including the World Input-Output Database,World Development Indicators,the UN Comtrade database,and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index,provide empirical support for this model-based conclusion.Our findings highlight that a nation must consider foreign economic policy uncertainty and maintain domestic policy stability to participate in GVCs.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72173039)Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(No.2021JJ30156)+1 种基金Hunan Provincial Philosophy,Social Science Foundation Project(No.17JD18)Major Projects of the National Social Science Fund of China(No.18ZDA068).
文摘This paper quantifies the way in which the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)afects the restructuring of global value chains(GVCs).It incorporates an inputoutput structure into a general equilibrium model,highlighting important differences between intermediates and final goods.Using tarif reduction schedules for the RCEP agreement and Asian Development Bank Multi-Region Input-Output database,it evaluates the impact of the RCEP's tariff cuts on vertical specialization and the GVC position index of members.It shows that the RCEP significantly increased vertical specialization and the weighted average number of stages for members for primary factors of production and final consumption,which led to more complex and longer production chains.This was mainly due to the trade creation in intermediates imported from member countries and those outside it.This is an important finding,distinct from traditional trade models without aninput-output structure.
