The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain....The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.展开更多
This study investigates the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the global land monsoon system during the Last Interglacial(LIG,127000 years BP)and the mid-Holocene(MH,6000 years BP)using the earth system model E...This study investigates the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the global land monsoon system during the Last Interglacial(LIG,127000 years BP)and the mid-Holocene(MH,6000 years BP)using the earth system model EC-Earth3.Our findings indicate that vegetation changes significantly influence the global monsoon area and precipitation patterns,especially in the North African and Indian monsoon regions.The North African monsoon region experienced the most substantial increase in vegetation during both the LIG and MH,resulting in significant increases in monsoonal precipitation by 9.8%and 6.0%,respectively.The vegetation feedback also intensified the Saharan Heat Low,strengthened monsoonal flows,and enhanced precipitation over the North African monsoon region.In contrast,the Indian monsoon region exhibited divergent responses to vegetation changes.During the LIG,precipitation in the Indian monsoon region decreased by 2.2%,while it increased by 1.6%during the MH.These differences highlight the complex and region-specific impacts of vegetation feedback on monsoon systems.Overall,this study demonstrates that vegetation feedback exerts distinct influences on the global monsoon during the MH and LIG.These findings highlight the importance of considering vegetation-climate feedback in understanding past monsoon variability and in predicting future climate change impacts on monsoon systems.展开更多
Global land monsoon precipitation(GLMP)is highly sensitive to changes in interhemispheric thermal contrast(ITC).Amplified interhemispheric asymmetries of GLMP due to enhanced ITC driven by high-level anthropogenic emi...Global land monsoon precipitation(GLMP)is highly sensitive to changes in interhemispheric thermal contrast(ITC).Amplified interhemispheric asymmetries of GLMP due to enhanced ITC driven by high-level anthropogenic emissions are expected to simultaneously increase the probability of regional floods and droughts,threatening ecosystems within global terrestrial monsoon regions and the freshwater supply for billions of residents in these areas.In this study,the responses of GLMP to the evolution of ITC toward the carbon neutrality goal are assessed using multimodel outputs from a new model intercomparison project(CovidMIP).The results show that the Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere(NH-SH)asymmetry of GLMP in boreal summer weakens during the 2040s,as a persistent reduction in well-mixed greenhouse gas(WMGHG)emissions leads to a downward trend in the ITC after 2040.At the same time,the reduction in WMGHG emissions dampens the Eastern Hemisphere-Western Hemisphere(EH-WH)asymmetry of GLMP by inducing La Niña-like cooling and enhancing moisture transport to Inner America.The resulting increases in land monsoon precipitation(LMP)may alleviate drought under the global warming scenario by about 19%-25%and 7%-9%in the WH and SH monsoon regions,respectively.However,a persistent reduction in aerosol emissions in Asia will dominate the increases in LMP in this region until the mid-21st century,and these increases may be approximately 23%-60%of the growth under the global warming scenario.Our results highlight the different rates of response of aerosol and WMGHG concentrations to the carbon neutrality goal,leading to various changes in LMP at global and regional scales.展开更多
The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risk...The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.展开更多
A complex system is inherently high-dimensional.Recent studies indicate that,even without complete knowledge of its evolutionary dynamics,the future behavior of such a system can be predicted using time-series data(da...A complex system is inherently high-dimensional.Recent studies indicate that,even without complete knowledge of its evolutionary dynamics,the future behavior of such a system can be predicted using time-series data(data-driven prediction).This suggests that the essential dynamics of a complex system can be captured through a low-dimensional representation.Virus evolution and climate change are two examples of complex,time-varying systems.In this article,we show that mutations in the spike protein provide valuable data for predicting SARS-CoV-2 variants,forecasting the possible emergence of the new macro-lineage Q in the near future.Our analysis also demonstrates that carbon dioxide concentration is a reliable indicator for predicting the evolution of the climate system,extending global surface air temperature(GSAT)forecasts through 2500.展开更多
Objectives Primary prevention targeting modifiable risk factors would reduce the global burden of colorectal cancer,but the quantitative results are uncertain.We aimed to assess the global burden of colorectal cancer ...Objectives Primary prevention targeting modifiable risk factors would reduce the global burden of colorectal cancer,but the quantitative results are uncertain.We aimed to assess the global burden of colorectal cancer attributed to modifiable lifestyle factors and quantify the potential increase in life expectancy resulting from the elimination of these risk factors.Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,we examined colorectal cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributed to modifiable risk factors(including smoking,diet low in whole grains,diet low in milk,diet high in red meat,diet low in calcium,diet high in processed meat,and diet low in fiber)at the global,regional,and national levels from 1990 to 2021.The abridged period life table method was utilized to quantify the potential gain in life expectancy from eliminating these risk factors.Results Globally in 2021,57.1%of colorectal cancer deaths and 56.4%of disability-adjusted life years were preventable,with rates of 7.55(4.94–9.64)and 174.67(114.54–222.24)per 100,000 population,respectively.The modifiable burden has diminished in the high,high-middle,and low socio-demographic index quintiles and remained steady in the middle one.However,there is a concerning increase in the low-middle one.In 2021,the elimination of global colorectal cancer attributed to modifiable factors would increase the life expectancy for males and females by 0.107 and 0.109 years,respectively.Conclusion Our results quantitatively demonstrate the substantial burden reduction in colorectal cancer and the significant gain in life expectancy that can be achieved by eliminating modifiable lifestyle factors.展开更多
Background Genitourinary cancers constitute a significant portion of the global cancer burden and have emerged as a prominent cause of cancer-related mortality.However,there remains a paucity of up-to-date statistical...Background Genitourinary cancers constitute a significant portion of the global cancer burden and have emerged as a prominent cause of cancer-related mortality.However,there remains a paucity of up-to-date statistical analyses that meticulously examine the global and national shifts in the epidemiology of genitourinary cancers.Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the global distribution and progression of genitourinary cancers through analyses of the recently updated 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database.Methods This study presented the incidence,mortality,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),and their respective age-standardized rates for four genitourinary cancers(bladder,kidney,prostate,and testicular cancers)by sex,age,and location from 1990 to 2021.Estimates for these data were presented with their 95%uncertainty intervals(UIs).Estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC)models were utilized to further quantify the temporal dynamics of age-standardized rates(ASRs)in genitourinary cancers.Countries and territories were categorized according to socio-demographic index(SDI)quintiles.Results Globally,with the exception of a sustained decline in age-standardized incidence rates(ASIRs)for bladder cancer(EAPC=−0.36%),the ASIRs for kidney,prostate,and testicular cancers demonstrated an upward trend from 1990 to 2021(EAPC=0.53%,0.20%,and 1.43%,respectively).In terms of geographical regions,High-income North America had the highest ASIRs for both bladder(13.98 per 100,000 persons[95%UI,12.96 to 14.61])and prostate(47.02 per 100,000 persons[95%UI,44.47 to 49.04])cancers.Southern Latin America recorded the highest ASIRs for kidney(13.44 per 100,000 persons[95%UI,12.27 to 14.73])and testicular(4.98 per 100,000 persons[95%UI,4.33 to 5.72])cancers.Additionally,Central Europe(1.25%[95%CI,1.12%to 1.38%]),East Asia(2.40%[95%CI,2.21%to 2.59%]),Eastern Europe(3.74%[95%CI,3.55%to 3.92%]),and the Caribbean(5.52%[95%CI,4.32%to 6.74%])exhibited the highest EAPCs for bladder,kidney,prostate,and testicular cancers,respectively.Unlike the ASIRs,age-standardized mortality rates(ASMRs)and age-standardized DALYs rates(ASDRs)showed a downward trend over time in all types of genitourinary cancers.The disease burdens of bladder,kidney,and prostate cancers were primarily distributed among older men,while testicular cancer mainly occurred in young men.Smoking remained the primary risk factor for bladder cancer.Meanwhile,high fasting plasma glucose and high body-mass index exerted increasingly significant impacts on bladder and kidney cancers,respectively,during the study period.Projections to 2050 suggest that the global burdens of genitourinary cancers are expected to decline to varying degrees.However,regional disparities in genitourinary cancer burdens are projected to persist.Conclusions Although the results demonstrate a marginal decline in ASRs caused by genitourinary cancers,they still impose a considerable global burden and result in numerous deaths.Our study obtained and analyzed the latest epidemiological data of genitourinary cancers from the GBD 2021,offering valuable information for national healthcare professionals and policymakers to optimize resource allocation,manage costs more efficiently,and develop practical healthcare policies.展开更多
This study directs the discussion of HIV disease with a novel kind of complex dynamical generalized and piecewise operator in the sense of classical and Atangana Baleanu(AB)derivatives having arbitrary order.The HIV i...This study directs the discussion of HIV disease with a novel kind of complex dynamical generalized and piecewise operator in the sense of classical and Atangana Baleanu(AB)derivatives having arbitrary order.The HIV infection model has a susceptible class,a recovered class,along with a case of infection divided into three sub-different levels or categories and the recovered class.The total time interval is converted into two,which are further investigated for ordinary and fractional order operators of the AB derivative,respectively.The proposed model is tested separately for unique solutions and existence on bi intervals.The numerical solution of the proposed model is treated by the piece-wise numerical iterative scheme of Newtons Polynomial.The proposed method is established for piece-wise derivatives under natural order and non-singular Mittag-Leffler Law.The cross-over or bending characteristics in the dynamical system of HIV are easily examined by the aspect of this research having a memory effect for controlling the said disease.This study uses the neural network(NN)technique to obtain a better set of weights with low residual errors,and the epochs number is considered 1000.The obtained figures represent the approximate solution and absolute error which are tested with NN to train the data accurately.展开更多
South African scholars highlight the importance of Xi Jinping:The Governance of China China is playing an increasingly active and important role in global politics and economy,especially in the development of the Glob...South African scholars highlight the importance of Xi Jinping:The Governance of China China is playing an increasingly active and important role in global politics and economy,especially in the development of the Global South.展开更多
Today,the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,and a host of global challenges continue to emerge.The international community urgently requires effective global governance.As Chinese President Xi J...Today,the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,and a host of global challenges continue to emerge.The international community urgently requires effective global governance.As Chinese President Xi Jinping has pointed out,multilateralism is the inevitable choice for addressing the world’s difficulties and challenges.1 However,various negative trends in international politics are undermining or impeding the effectiveness of multilateralism and aggravating the global governance deficit.Against this backdrop,it is essential to reassess the importance of multilateralism in global governance,identify the challenges it faces,and explore feasible pathways for collective action to advance global governance.展开更多
Nonlinear variations in the coordinate time series of global navigation satellite system(GNSS) reference stations are strongly correlated with surface displacements caused by environmental loading effects,including at...Nonlinear variations in the coordinate time series of global navigation satellite system(GNSS) reference stations are strongly correlated with surface displacements caused by environmental loading effects,including atmospheric, hydrological, and nontidal ocean loading. Continuous improvements in the accuracy of surface mass loading products, performance of Earth models, and precise data-processing technologies have significantly advanced research on the effects of environmental loading on nonlinear variations in GNSS coordinate time series. However, owing to theoretical limitations, the lack of high spatiotemporal resolution surface mass observations, and the coupling of GNSS technology-related systematic errors, environmental loading and nonlinear GNSS reference station displacements remain inconsistent. The applicability and capability of these loading products across different regions also require further evaluation. This paper outlines methods for modeling environmental loading, surface mass loading products, and service organizations. In addition, it summarizes recent advances in applying environmental loading to address nonlinear variations in global and regional GNSS coordinate time series. Moreover, the scientific questions of existing studies are summarized, and insights into future research directions are provided. The complex nonlinear motion of reference stations is a major factor limiting the accuracy of the current terrestrial reference frame. Further refining the environmental load modeling method, establishing a surface mass distribution model with high spatiotemporal resolution and reliability, exploring other environmental load factors such as ice sheet and artificial mass-change effects, and developing an optimal data-processing model and strategy for reprocessing global reference station data consistently could contribute to the development of a millimeter-level nonlinear motion model for GNSS reference stations with actual physical significance and provide theoretical support for establishing a terrestrial reference frame with 1 mm accuracy by 2050.展开更多
THIS year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.At this historical juncture,Chinese President Xi Jinping put fo...THIS year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.At this historical juncture,Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the Global Governance Initiative(GGI)at the“Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus”meeting in September.Focusing on the question of our times,essentially“what kind of global governance system should be built and how can global governance be reformed and improved,”the GGI embodies China’s solution to addressing the deficit in global governance.展开更多
Economic globalization is a process of forming a global market under the conditions of technological progress and national opening-up.Influenced by factors such as national policies,the international environment and g...Economic globalization is a process of forming a global market under the conditions of technological progress and national opening-up.Influenced by factors such as national policies,the international environment and geopolitics,the values,concepts and choices of the participants of globalization will change accordingly,thus affecting the mode,scale and speed of globalization.展开更多
At a time when humanity grapples with intersecting deficits in peace,development,security and governance,civilizations stand at a crossroads.As traditional Western-led solutions falter,China’s Global Civilization Ini...At a time when humanity grapples with intersecting deficits in peace,development,security and governance,civilizations stand at a crossroads.As traditional Western-led solutions falter,China’s Global Civilization Initiative(GCI)emerges as a transformative framework,translating historical wisdom into actionable strategies.Recent forums like the 11th Nishan Forum on World Civilizations and the Global Civilizations Dialogue Ministerial Meeting underscore growing consensus on core principles:equality,mutual learning,inclusive dialogue,and collaborative response to global challenges.As Chinese President Xi Jinping pointed out in his congratulatory letter to the Global Civilizations Dialogue Ministerial Meeting,“History shows that exchanges and mutual learning among civilizations are essential for civilizations to flourish and for human progress to be made.”展开更多
We study the two-dimensional(2D)Cauchy problem of nonhomogeneous Boussinesq system for magnetohydrodynamics convection without heat diffusion in the whole plane.Based on delicate weighted estimates,we derive the globa...We study the two-dimensional(2D)Cauchy problem of nonhomogeneous Boussinesq system for magnetohydrodynamics convection without heat diffusion in the whole plane.Based on delicate weighted estimates,we derive the global existence and uniqueness of strong solutions.In particular,the initial data can be arbitrarily large and the initial density may contain vacuum states and even have compact support.展开更多
Global South,representing the collective of emerging markets and developing countries,is becoming a pivotal force in reshaping the international order.It plays a vital role in driving global governance reforms with th...Global South,representing the collective of emerging markets and developing countries,is becoming a pivotal force in reshaping the international order.It plays a vital role in driving global governance reforms with the principle of fairness and equity.展开更多
At the“Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus”Meeting in Tianjin on September 1,Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the Global Governance Initiative(GGI)-the fourth landmark global initiative proposed in a row si...At the“Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus”Meeting in Tianjin on September 1,Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the Global Governance Initiative(GGI)-the fourth landmark global initiative proposed in a row since 2021.The initiation of the GGI can be seen as both China’s policy response to the current international landscape and to the objective deficiencies in the existing global governance system,as well as a logical and further step in the development of China’s diplomatic theories and practices in global governance.展开更多
After the 2008 global financial crisis, the global governance architecture underwent significant changes, accompanied by transformations in political, economic, diplomatic, and social spheres. What we had learnt since...After the 2008 global financial crisis, the global governance architecture underwent significant changes, accompanied by transformations in political, economic, diplomatic, and social spheres. What we had learnt since the end of World War Ⅱ was unable to make sense of the evolution and direction of this architecture.展开更多
基金supported by the Australian Research Council(Grant No.CE230100012)。
文摘The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.
基金supported by the Swedish Research Council(Vetenskapsradet,Grant No.202203129)the Project of Youth Science and Technology Fund of Gansu Province(Grant No.24JRRA439)partially funded by the Swedish Research Council(Vetenskapsradet,Grant No.2022-06725)。
文摘This study investigates the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the global land monsoon system during the Last Interglacial(LIG,127000 years BP)and the mid-Holocene(MH,6000 years BP)using the earth system model EC-Earth3.Our findings indicate that vegetation changes significantly influence the global monsoon area and precipitation patterns,especially in the North African and Indian monsoon regions.The North African monsoon region experienced the most substantial increase in vegetation during both the LIG and MH,resulting in significant increases in monsoonal precipitation by 9.8%and 6.0%,respectively.The vegetation feedback also intensified the Saharan Heat Low,strengthened monsoonal flows,and enhanced precipitation over the North African monsoon region.In contrast,the Indian monsoon region exhibited divergent responses to vegetation changes.During the LIG,precipitation in the Indian monsoon region decreased by 2.2%,while it increased by 1.6%during the MH.These differences highlight the complex and region-specific impacts of vegetation feedback on monsoon systems.Overall,this study demonstrates that vegetation feedback exerts distinct influences on the global monsoon during the MH and LIG.These findings highlight the importance of considering vegetation-climate feedback in understanding past monsoon variability and in predicting future climate change impacts on monsoon systems.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275039)the Meteorological Joint Fund by NSF and CMA(Grant No.U2342224)+1 种基金the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3701202)the S&T Development Fund of CAMS(Grant No.2024KJ019)。
文摘Global land monsoon precipitation(GLMP)is highly sensitive to changes in interhemispheric thermal contrast(ITC).Amplified interhemispheric asymmetries of GLMP due to enhanced ITC driven by high-level anthropogenic emissions are expected to simultaneously increase the probability of regional floods and droughts,threatening ecosystems within global terrestrial monsoon regions and the freshwater supply for billions of residents in these areas.In this study,the responses of GLMP to the evolution of ITC toward the carbon neutrality goal are assessed using multimodel outputs from a new model intercomparison project(CovidMIP).The results show that the Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere(NH-SH)asymmetry of GLMP in boreal summer weakens during the 2040s,as a persistent reduction in well-mixed greenhouse gas(WMGHG)emissions leads to a downward trend in the ITC after 2040.At the same time,the reduction in WMGHG emissions dampens the Eastern Hemisphere-Western Hemisphere(EH-WH)asymmetry of GLMP by inducing La Niña-like cooling and enhancing moisture transport to Inner America.The resulting increases in land monsoon precipitation(LMP)may alleviate drought under the global warming scenario by about 19%-25%and 7%-9%in the WH and SH monsoon regions,respectively.However,a persistent reduction in aerosol emissions in Asia will dominate the increases in LMP in this region until the mid-21st century,and these increases may be approximately 23%-60%of the growth under the global warming scenario.Our results highlight the different rates of response of aerosol and WMGHG concentrations to the carbon neutrality goal,leading to various changes in LMP at global and regional scales.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608904)the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.060GJHZ2023079GC and 134111KYSB20160031)+1 种基金supported by the Office of Science,U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling(WACCEM)scientific focus areaoperated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830。
文摘The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.
基金Natural science foundation of Inner Mongolia(2024LHMS06018)The basic scientific research funding for directly affiliated universities in the Inner Mongolia(JY20250094)。
文摘A complex system is inherently high-dimensional.Recent studies indicate that,even without complete knowledge of its evolutionary dynamics,the future behavior of such a system can be predicted using time-series data(data-driven prediction).This suggests that the essential dynamics of a complex system can be captured through a low-dimensional representation.Virus evolution and climate change are two examples of complex,time-varying systems.In this article,we show that mutations in the spike protein provide valuable data for predicting SARS-CoV-2 variants,forecasting the possible emergence of the new macro-lineage Q in the near future.Our analysis also demonstrates that carbon dioxide concentration is a reliable indicator for predicting the evolution of the climate system,extending global surface air temperature(GSAT)forecasts through 2500.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant number:82404340)the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Science(grant number:2021-I2M-1–067)+1 种基金the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(grant number:LTGY23H260004)the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(grant number:Z240004).
文摘Objectives Primary prevention targeting modifiable risk factors would reduce the global burden of colorectal cancer,but the quantitative results are uncertain.We aimed to assess the global burden of colorectal cancer attributed to modifiable lifestyle factors and quantify the potential increase in life expectancy resulting from the elimination of these risk factors.Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,we examined colorectal cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributed to modifiable risk factors(including smoking,diet low in whole grains,diet low in milk,diet high in red meat,diet low in calcium,diet high in processed meat,and diet low in fiber)at the global,regional,and national levels from 1990 to 2021.The abridged period life table method was utilized to quantify the potential gain in life expectancy from eliminating these risk factors.Results Globally in 2021,57.1%of colorectal cancer deaths and 56.4%of disability-adjusted life years were preventable,with rates of 7.55(4.94–9.64)and 174.67(114.54–222.24)per 100,000 population,respectively.The modifiable burden has diminished in the high,high-middle,and low socio-demographic index quintiles and remained steady in the middle one.However,there is a concerning increase in the low-middle one.In 2021,the elimination of global colorectal cancer attributed to modifiable factors would increase the life expectancy for males and females by 0.107 and 0.109 years,respectively.Conclusion Our results quantitatively demonstrate the substantial burden reduction in colorectal cancer and the significant gain in life expectancy that can be achieved by eliminating modifiable lifestyle factors.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers:82202877 and 8237110369)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China(grant number:2024A1515010599)Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Clinical Medicine Development of Special Funding Support(grant number:XMLX202134).
文摘Background Genitourinary cancers constitute a significant portion of the global cancer burden and have emerged as a prominent cause of cancer-related mortality.However,there remains a paucity of up-to-date statistical analyses that meticulously examine the global and national shifts in the epidemiology of genitourinary cancers.Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the global distribution and progression of genitourinary cancers through analyses of the recently updated 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database.Methods This study presented the incidence,mortality,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),and their respective age-standardized rates for four genitourinary cancers(bladder,kidney,prostate,and testicular cancers)by sex,age,and location from 1990 to 2021.Estimates for these data were presented with their 95%uncertainty intervals(UIs).Estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC)models were utilized to further quantify the temporal dynamics of age-standardized rates(ASRs)in genitourinary cancers.Countries and territories were categorized according to socio-demographic index(SDI)quintiles.Results Globally,with the exception of a sustained decline in age-standardized incidence rates(ASIRs)for bladder cancer(EAPC=−0.36%),the ASIRs for kidney,prostate,and testicular cancers demonstrated an upward trend from 1990 to 2021(EAPC=0.53%,0.20%,and 1.43%,respectively).In terms of geographical regions,High-income North America had the highest ASIRs for both bladder(13.98 per 100,000 persons[95%UI,12.96 to 14.61])and prostate(47.02 per 100,000 persons[95%UI,44.47 to 49.04])cancers.Southern Latin America recorded the highest ASIRs for kidney(13.44 per 100,000 persons[95%UI,12.27 to 14.73])and testicular(4.98 per 100,000 persons[95%UI,4.33 to 5.72])cancers.Additionally,Central Europe(1.25%[95%CI,1.12%to 1.38%]),East Asia(2.40%[95%CI,2.21%to 2.59%]),Eastern Europe(3.74%[95%CI,3.55%to 3.92%]),and the Caribbean(5.52%[95%CI,4.32%to 6.74%])exhibited the highest EAPCs for bladder,kidney,prostate,and testicular cancers,respectively.Unlike the ASIRs,age-standardized mortality rates(ASMRs)and age-standardized DALYs rates(ASDRs)showed a downward trend over time in all types of genitourinary cancers.The disease burdens of bladder,kidney,and prostate cancers were primarily distributed among older men,while testicular cancer mainly occurred in young men.Smoking remained the primary risk factor for bladder cancer.Meanwhile,high fasting plasma glucose and high body-mass index exerted increasingly significant impacts on bladder and kidney cancers,respectively,during the study period.Projections to 2050 suggest that the global burdens of genitourinary cancers are expected to decline to varying degrees.However,regional disparities in genitourinary cancer burdens are projected to persist.Conclusions Although the results demonstrate a marginal decline in ASRs caused by genitourinary cancers,they still impose a considerable global burden and result in numerous deaths.Our study obtained and analyzed the latest epidemiological data of genitourinary cancers from the GBD 2021,offering valuable information for national healthcare professionals and policymakers to optimize resource allocation,manage costs more efficiently,and develop practical healthcare policies.
基金supported and funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research at Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University(IMSIU)(grant number IMSIU-RP23066).
文摘This study directs the discussion of HIV disease with a novel kind of complex dynamical generalized and piecewise operator in the sense of classical and Atangana Baleanu(AB)derivatives having arbitrary order.The HIV infection model has a susceptible class,a recovered class,along with a case of infection divided into three sub-different levels or categories and the recovered class.The total time interval is converted into two,which are further investigated for ordinary and fractional order operators of the AB derivative,respectively.The proposed model is tested separately for unique solutions and existence on bi intervals.The numerical solution of the proposed model is treated by the piece-wise numerical iterative scheme of Newtons Polynomial.The proposed method is established for piece-wise derivatives under natural order and non-singular Mittag-Leffler Law.The cross-over or bending characteristics in the dynamical system of HIV are easily examined by the aspect of this research having a memory effect for controlling the said disease.This study uses the neural network(NN)technique to obtain a better set of weights with low residual errors,and the epochs number is considered 1000.The obtained figures represent the approximate solution and absolute error which are tested with NN to train the data accurately.
文摘South African scholars highlight the importance of Xi Jinping:The Governance of China China is playing an increasingly active and important role in global politics and economy,especially in the development of the Global South.
文摘Today,the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,and a host of global challenges continue to emerge.The international community urgently requires effective global governance.As Chinese President Xi Jinping has pointed out,multilateralism is the inevitable choice for addressing the world’s difficulties and challenges.1 However,various negative trends in international politics are undermining or impeding the effectiveness of multilateralism and aggravating the global governance deficit.Against this backdrop,it is essential to reassess the importance of multilateralism in global governance,identify the challenges it faces,and explore feasible pathways for collective action to advance global governance.
基金supported by the Basic Science Center Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42388102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42174030)+2 种基金the Special Fund of Hubei Luojia Laboratory(220100020)the Major Science and Technology Program for Hubei Province(2022AAA002)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(2042022dx0001 and 2042023kfyq01)。
文摘Nonlinear variations in the coordinate time series of global navigation satellite system(GNSS) reference stations are strongly correlated with surface displacements caused by environmental loading effects,including atmospheric, hydrological, and nontidal ocean loading. Continuous improvements in the accuracy of surface mass loading products, performance of Earth models, and precise data-processing technologies have significantly advanced research on the effects of environmental loading on nonlinear variations in GNSS coordinate time series. However, owing to theoretical limitations, the lack of high spatiotemporal resolution surface mass observations, and the coupling of GNSS technology-related systematic errors, environmental loading and nonlinear GNSS reference station displacements remain inconsistent. The applicability and capability of these loading products across different regions also require further evaluation. This paper outlines methods for modeling environmental loading, surface mass loading products, and service organizations. In addition, it summarizes recent advances in applying environmental loading to address nonlinear variations in global and regional GNSS coordinate time series. Moreover, the scientific questions of existing studies are summarized, and insights into future research directions are provided. The complex nonlinear motion of reference stations is a major factor limiting the accuracy of the current terrestrial reference frame. Further refining the environmental load modeling method, establishing a surface mass distribution model with high spatiotemporal resolution and reliability, exploring other environmental load factors such as ice sheet and artificial mass-change effects, and developing an optimal data-processing model and strategy for reprocessing global reference station data consistently could contribute to the development of a millimeter-level nonlinear motion model for GNSS reference stations with actual physical significance and provide theoretical support for establishing a terrestrial reference frame with 1 mm accuracy by 2050.
文摘THIS year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.At this historical juncture,Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the Global Governance Initiative(GGI)at the“Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus”meeting in September.Focusing on the question of our times,essentially“what kind of global governance system should be built and how can global governance be reformed and improved,”the GGI embodies China’s solution to addressing the deficit in global governance.
文摘Economic globalization is a process of forming a global market under the conditions of technological progress and national opening-up.Influenced by factors such as national policies,the international environment and geopolitics,the values,concepts and choices of the participants of globalization will change accordingly,thus affecting the mode,scale and speed of globalization.
文摘At a time when humanity grapples with intersecting deficits in peace,development,security and governance,civilizations stand at a crossroads.As traditional Western-led solutions falter,China’s Global Civilization Initiative(GCI)emerges as a transformative framework,translating historical wisdom into actionable strategies.Recent forums like the 11th Nishan Forum on World Civilizations and the Global Civilizations Dialogue Ministerial Meeting underscore growing consensus on core principles:equality,mutual learning,inclusive dialogue,and collaborative response to global challenges.As Chinese President Xi Jinping pointed out in his congratulatory letter to the Global Civilizations Dialogue Ministerial Meeting,“History shows that exchanges and mutual learning among civilizations are essential for civilizations to flourish and for human progress to be made.”
文摘We study the two-dimensional(2D)Cauchy problem of nonhomogeneous Boussinesq system for magnetohydrodynamics convection without heat diffusion in the whole plane.Based on delicate weighted estimates,we derive the global existence and uniqueness of strong solutions.In particular,the initial data can be arbitrarily large and the initial density may contain vacuum states and even have compact support.
文摘Global South,representing the collective of emerging markets and developing countries,is becoming a pivotal force in reshaping the international order.It plays a vital role in driving global governance reforms with the principle of fairness and equity.
文摘At the“Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus”Meeting in Tianjin on September 1,Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the Global Governance Initiative(GGI)-the fourth landmark global initiative proposed in a row since 2021.The initiation of the GGI can be seen as both China’s policy response to the current international landscape and to the objective deficiencies in the existing global governance system,as well as a logical and further step in the development of China’s diplomatic theories and practices in global governance.
文摘After the 2008 global financial crisis, the global governance architecture underwent significant changes, accompanied by transformations in political, economic, diplomatic, and social spheres. What we had learnt since the end of World War Ⅱ was unable to make sense of the evolution and direction of this architecture.
