The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic suppor...The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique（MTP-GERT） is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis,a global sensitivity analysis（GSA） method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.展开更多
Effectiveness evaluation of the joint operation system is an important basis for the demonstration and development of weapon equipment.With the consideration that existing models of system effectiveness evaluation sel...Effectiveness evaluation of the joint operation system is an important basis for the demonstration and development of weapon equipment.With the consideration that existing models of system effectiveness evaluation seldom describe the structural relationship among equipment clearly as well as reflect the dynamic,the analog-to-digital converter-graphical evaluation and review technique(ADC-GERT)network parameter estimation model is proposed based on the ADC model and the joint operation system structure.Firstly,analysis of the joint operation system structure and operation process is conducted to build the GERT network,where equipment subsystems are nodes and activities are directed arches.Then the mission effectiveness of equipment subsystems is calculated by the ADC model.The probability transfer parameters are modified by the mission effectiveness of equipment subsystems based on the Bayesian theorem,with the ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model constructed.Finally,a case study is used to validate the efficiency and dynamic of the ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model.展开更多
The effectiveness evaluation of GEO satellite communication constellation not only characterizes the communication capability of the constellation but also provides a basis for optimizing the constellation structure.W...The effectiveness evaluation of GEO satellite communication constellation not only characterizes the communication capability of the constellation but also provides a basis for optimizing the constellation structure.Whether due to information poverty or the complexity of the system,the impact of uncertain information on the effectiveness evaluation needs to be considered to ensure the accuracy of the evaluation results.To address this issue,this paper develops a model for evaluating the GEO satellite communication constellation’s effectiveness in the context of poor information.Firstly,it analyses the GEO satellite communication constellation plus system based on communication links with an in-depth analysis of the constellation structure.Secondly,an equivalent transfer function algorithm based on the characteristic function and transfer probability is proposed with the help of graphical evaluation and review technique.Then,by analyzing the communication link importance connotation,the algorithm formula of communication link effectiveness and its importance is derived,and the constellation effectiveness and variance are found.Finally,the model constructed in this paper is used to evaluate the effectiveness of a GEO satellite communication constellation,further verifying the accuracy and validity of the model.Through comparative analysis,it is shown that the model can not only solving the effectiveness of the constellation but also analyzing the variation of its effectiveness.It lays a theoretical foundation for the analysis and optimization of the GEO satellite communication constellation effectiveness.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71171008)
文摘The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique（MTP-GERT） is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis,a global sensitivity analysis（GSA） method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72071111,71801127,71671091)the NSFC and the UK Royal Society joint project(71811530338)+2 种基金the Special Postdoctoral Fund of China(2019TQ0150)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(NC2019003)the Intelligence Introduction Base of the Ministry of Science and Technology(G20190010178)。
文摘Effectiveness evaluation of the joint operation system is an important basis for the demonstration and development of weapon equipment.With the consideration that existing models of system effectiveness evaluation seldom describe the structural relationship among equipment clearly as well as reflect the dynamic,the analog-to-digital converter-graphical evaluation and review technique(ADC-GERT)network parameter estimation model is proposed based on the ADC model and the joint operation system structure.Firstly,analysis of the joint operation system structure and operation process is conducted to build the GERT network,where equipment subsystems are nodes and activities are directed arches.Then the mission effectiveness of equipment subsystems is calculated by the ADC model.The probability transfer parameters are modified by the mission effectiveness of equipment subsystems based on the Bayesian theorem,with the ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model constructed.Finally,a case study is used to validate the efficiency and dynamic of the ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 71671091in part by the Major Project Cultivation Fund and Major Science and Technology Achievements Development Fund of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics under Grant NP2019104 and NC2019003 respectivelyin part by the National Development and Reform Commission (High-Tech[2017]1069)
文摘The effectiveness evaluation of GEO satellite communication constellation not only characterizes the communication capability of the constellation but also provides a basis for optimizing the constellation structure.Whether due to information poverty or the complexity of the system,the impact of uncertain information on the effectiveness evaluation needs to be considered to ensure the accuracy of the evaluation results.To address this issue,this paper develops a model for evaluating the GEO satellite communication constellation’s effectiveness in the context of poor information.Firstly,it analyses the GEO satellite communication constellation plus system based on communication links with an in-depth analysis of the constellation structure.Secondly,an equivalent transfer function algorithm based on the characteristic function and transfer probability is proposed with the help of graphical evaluation and review technique.Then,by analyzing the communication link importance connotation,the algorithm formula of communication link effectiveness and its importance is derived,and the constellation effectiveness and variance are found.Finally,the model constructed in this paper is used to evaluate the effectiveness of a GEO satellite communication constellation,further verifying the accuracy and validity of the model.Through comparative analysis,it is shown that the model can not only solving the effectiveness of the constellation but also analyzing the variation of its effectiveness.It lays a theoretical foundation for the analysis and optimization of the GEO satellite communication constellation effectiveness.
