Gross Domestic Product(GDP)is the total market value of final goods and services produced by a country in a year.This study attempted to find the best-fit Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model for forec...Gross Domestic Product(GDP)is the total market value of final goods and services produced by a country in a year.This study attempted to find the best-fit Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model for forecasting China’s GDP over the next five years(2025 to 2029).In this study,we collected historical GDP data for China from 1960 to 2024 from the World Bank.Using the Box-Jenkins approach,we examined the Autocorrelation Function(ACF)and Partial Autocorrelation Function(PACF)plots,performed stationarity tests,and tested several models using the Akaike Information Criterion(AIC).We determined ARIMA(1,2,1)would be the best model to fit the data.We then used the fitted model to forecast the following five years for GDP in China,demonstrating the capabilities of ARIMA as an effective forecasting model.This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and economists in planning sustainable economic strategies for China's future development.展开更多
This study investigates whether accotmting earnings can predict future Gross Domestic Product （GDP） growth within China＇s institutional settings. Konchitchki and Patatoukas （2014a） find that accounting earnings i...This study investigates whether accotmting earnings can predict future Gross Domestic Product （GDP） growth within China＇s institutional settings. Konchitchki and Patatoukas （2014a） find that accounting earnings is a significant leading indicator of GDP growth for the next three or four quarters. We conjecture, however, that earnings management would weaken such predictive power for accounting earnings because it distorts earnings from real corporate profit. As earnings of Chinese firms are more seriously manipulated than those of US firms, this study finds that earnings of Chinese listed firms can only predict GDP growth for a single quarter. We further decompose accounting earnings into operating cash flow and accrual earnings and find that operating cash flow which is less affected by earnings management has better predictive power for GDP over the longer horizon of the next three quarters, but accrual earnings can only predict GDP growth for the next quarter.展开更多
文摘Gross Domestic Product(GDP)is the total market value of final goods and services produced by a country in a year.This study attempted to find the best-fit Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model for forecasting China’s GDP over the next five years(2025 to 2029).In this study,we collected historical GDP data for China from 1960 to 2024 from the World Bank.Using the Box-Jenkins approach,we examined the Autocorrelation Function(ACF)and Partial Autocorrelation Function(PACF)plots,performed stationarity tests,and tested several models using the Akaike Information Criterion(AIC).We determined ARIMA(1,2,1)would be the best model to fit the data.We then used the fitted model to forecast the following five years for GDP in China,demonstrating the capabilities of ARIMA as an effective forecasting model.This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and economists in planning sustainable economic strategies for China's future development.
文摘This study investigates whether accotmting earnings can predict future Gross Domestic Product （GDP） growth within China＇s institutional settings. Konchitchki and Patatoukas （2014a） find that accounting earnings is a significant leading indicator of GDP growth for the next three or four quarters. We conjecture, however, that earnings management would weaken such predictive power for accounting earnings because it distorts earnings from real corporate profit. As earnings of Chinese firms are more seriously manipulated than those of US firms, this study finds that earnings of Chinese listed firms can only predict GDP growth for a single quarter. We further decompose accounting earnings into operating cash flow and accrual earnings and find that operating cash flow which is less affected by earnings management has better predictive power for GDP over the longer horizon of the next three quarters, but accrual earnings can only predict GDP growth for the next quarter.
