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尾部风险视角下的金融系统性风险研究——基于随机森林法和GARCH-MIDAS模型的分析
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作者 高杰英 周圣杰 徐昕 《现代金融研究》 北大核心 2025年第7期30-44,共15页
本研究测度了2010-2022年我国金融机构尾部风险水平,刻画了金融业和金融子行业两个维度的尾部风险溢出特征,并进一步采用随机森林法与GARCH-MIDAS模型研究不同频率下宏观驱动因子对金融系统性风险的影响。研究发现:第一,金融系统性风险... 本研究测度了2010-2022年我国金融机构尾部风险水平,刻画了金融业和金融子行业两个维度的尾部风险溢出特征,并进一步采用随机森林法与GARCH-MIDAS模型研究不同频率下宏观驱动因子对金融系统性风险的影响。研究发现:第一,金融系统性风险呈周期震荡特征,子行业风险溢出表现出阶段性的共振与分化;第二,金融系统性风险对国际金融渠道的宏观驱动因子更敏感,且不同子行业对宏观驱动因子的敏感性存在显著异质性;第三,资本流出与经济过热加剧金融系统不稳定性,但在极端情境下,避险资金逆流入境反而对我国系统性风险形成缓冲。 展开更多
关键词 尾部风险 系统性风险 宏观驱动因子 随机森林 garch-midas模型
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经济政策不确定性与比特币市场波动的跨国实证研究——基于GARCH-MIDAS模型的分析 被引量:1
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作者 杨洁萌 沈云淇 《上海经济研究》 北大核心 2025年第7期102-115,共14页
本文以作为私有数字货币代表的比特币为研究对象,分析经济政策不确定性(Economic Policy Uncertainty,EPU)对私有数字货币市场波动的影响。使用GARCH-MIDAS模型进行跨国实证分析,选取中国、美国、日本、德国、英国五国EPU指数,构建包含... 本文以作为私有数字货币代表的比特币为研究对象,分析经济政策不确定性(Economic Policy Uncertainty,EPU)对私有数字货币市场波动的影响。使用GARCH-MIDAS模型进行跨国实证分析,选取中国、美国、日本、德国、英国五国EPU指数,构建包含EPU的扩展波动率预测模型,发现EPU指数显著影响比特币的长期波动,其中美国EPU与比特币市场的波动性呈现高度正相关,符合全球私人数字货币市场对美国经济政策不确定性的高度敏感;而中国、德国EPU指数与比特币市场的波动性总体呈负相关,体现出比特币在特定市场的避险属性。相较于传统GARCH模型,包含EPU指数的GARCH-MIDAS模型在样本内和样本外预测中均表现出更高的精度,证明政策不确定性是驱动比特币市场波动的重要长期因素,为全球数字货币市场的监管政策制定和投资者的风险管理策略提供理论依据和实证支持。 展开更多
关键词 经济政策不确定性 比特币市场波动 garch-midas模型 波动率预测 跨国实证研究
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基于GARCH-MIDAS模型的经济政策不确定性和投资者情绪对原油价格波动的影响研究
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作者 陈亚琼 《电子商务评论》 2025年第4期402-412,共11页
原油作为全球最重要的能源之一,在经济和金融市场中具有举足轻重的地位。本文利用GARCH-MIDAS模型,深入探讨了2014年1月至2024年9月期间,我国经济政策不确定性和投资者情绪对原油价格波动的影响。研究表明:原油价格波动表现出显著的自... 原油作为全球最重要的能源之一,在经济和金融市场中具有举足轻重的地位。本文利用GARCH-MIDAS模型,深入探讨了2014年1月至2024年9月期间,我国经济政策不确定性和投资者情绪对原油价格波动的影响。研究表明:原油价格波动表现出显著的自相关性,且其长期趋势呈现负向特征。从短期来看,经济政策不确定性和投资者情绪显著影响原油价格波动,且正向冲击会加剧价格波动;从长期来看,经济政策不确定性对原油价格波动具有显著抑制作用,而投资者情绪不会显著影响原油价格波动。在经济政策高不确定性的情况下,投资者情绪会更显著地影响原油价格波动。本文不仅为讨论原油价格波动提供了新视角,也为实现风险控制或金融稳定提供了参考。Crude oil, as one of the world’s most crucial energy sources, holds a pivotal position in both economic and financial markets. This paper employs the GARCH-MIDAS model to conduct an in-depth analysis of the impact of economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment on crude oil price volatility in China from January 2014 to September 2024. The study reveals that crude oil price volatility exhibits significant autocorrelation, with a long-term trend characterized by a negative trajectory. In the short term, crude oil prices are significantly influenced by economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment, with positive shocks exacerbating price volatility. Over the long term, economic policy uncertainty exerts a negative influence on prices of crude oil, whereas the influence of investor sentiment does not appear to be statistically significant. Additionally, during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, the attention of domestic investors increases and is reflected in the volatility of crude oil prices. This paper not only offers a new perspective on the discussion of crude oil price volatility but also provides insights for achieving risk control or financial stability. 展开更多
关键词 garch-midas模型 经济政策不确定性 投资者情绪 原油价格波动
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基于Hybrid Model的浙江省太阳总辐射估算及其时空分布特征
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作者 顾婷婷 潘娅英 张加易 《气象科学》 2025年第2期176-181,共6页
利用浙江省两个辐射站的观测资料,对地表太阳辐射模型Hybrid Model在浙江省的适用性进行评估分析。在此基础上,利用Hybrid Model重建浙江省71个站点1971—2020年的地表太阳辐射日数据集,并分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:Hybrid Model模... 利用浙江省两个辐射站的观测资料,对地表太阳辐射模型Hybrid Model在浙江省的适用性进行评估分析。在此基础上,利用Hybrid Model重建浙江省71个站点1971—2020年的地表太阳辐射日数据集,并分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:Hybrid Model模拟效果良好,和A-P模型计算结果进行对比,杭州站的平均误差、均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差分别为2.01 MJ·m^(-2)、2.69 MJ·m^(-2)和18.02%,而洪家站的平均误差、均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差分别为1.41 MJ·m^(-2)、1.85 MJ·m^(-2)和11.56%,误差均低于A-P模型,且Hybrid Model在各月模拟的误差波动较小。浙江省近50 a平均地表总辐射在3733~5060 MJ·m^(-2),高值区主要位于浙北平原及滨海岛屿地区。1971—2020年浙江省太阳总辐射呈明显减少的趋势,气候倾向率为-72 MJ·m^(-2)·(10 a)^(-1),并在1980s初和2000年中期发生了突变减少。 展开更多
关键词 Hybrid model 太阳总辐射 误差分析 时空分布
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基于24Model的动火作业事故致因文本挖掘 被引量:1
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作者 牛茂辉 李威君 +1 位作者 刘音 王璐 《中国安全科学学报》 北大核心 2025年第3期151-158,共8页
为探究工业动火作业事故的根源,提出一种基于“2-4”模型(24Model)的文本挖掘方法。首先,收集整理220篇动火作业事故报告,并作为数据集,构建基于来自变换器的双向编码器表征量(BERT)的24Model分类器,使用预训练模型训练和评估事故报告... 为探究工业动火作业事故的根源,提出一种基于“2-4”模型(24Model)的文本挖掘方法。首先,收集整理220篇动火作业事故报告,并作为数据集,构建基于来自变换器的双向编码器表征量(BERT)的24Model分类器,使用预训练模型训练和评估事故报告数据集,构建分类模型;然后,通过基于BERT的关键字提取算法(KeyBERT)和词频-逆文档频率(TF-IDF)算法的组合权重,结合24Model框架,建立动火作业事故文本关键词指标体系;最后,通过文本挖掘关键词之间的网络共现关系,分析得到事故致因之间的相互关联。结果显示,基于BERT的24Model分类器模型能够系统准确地判定动火作业事故致因类别,通过组合权重筛选得到4个层级关键词指标体系,其中安全管理体系的权重最大,结合共现网络分析得到动火作业事故的7项关键致因。 展开更多
关键词 “2-4”模型(24model) 动火作业 事故致因 文本挖掘 指标体系
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时变风险厌恶与人民币汇率波动率--基于GARCH-MIDAS-SK模型的实证研究 被引量:2
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作者 吴鑫育 梅学婷 +1 位作者 周海林 尹学宝 《数理统计与管理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第4期721-736,共16页
经验研究表明汇率收益率分布呈现出时变高阶矩(偏度和峰度)特征,其对于汇率波动率建模和预测具有重要作用。同时众多研究表明,时变风险厌恶(RA)包含了金融波动率预测的相关信息。鉴于此,本文构建带时变高阶矩的GARCH-MIDAS-SK模型框架,... 经验研究表明汇率收益率分布呈现出时变高阶矩(偏度和峰度)特征,其对于汇率波动率建模和预测具有重要作用。同时众多研究表明,时变风险厌恶(RA)包含了金融波动率预测的相关信息。鉴于此,本文构建带时变高阶矩的GARCH-MIDAS-SK模型框架,进一步将RA指数引入该模型框架,实证检验RA对人民币汇率波动率的影响以及预测作用。实证结果表明:RA对人民币汇率波动率具有显著负的影响;人民币汇率收益率分布展现出明显的时变高阶矩特征;引入RA和时变高阶矩有助于提高模型的样本内拟合效果。基于损失函数和MCS检验证实了引入RA和时变高阶矩能够显著提高模型的样本外预测精度,且预测结果具有关于不同样本外预测阶段的稳健性。 展开更多
关键词 时变风险厌恶 时变高阶矩 人民币汇率波动率 garch-midas-SK模型 MCS检验
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经济政策不确定性对深圳碳排放权交易市场波动性的影响——基于GARCH-MIDAS模型的分析
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作者 黄俊凯 《中国商论》 2024年第12期121-125,共5页
相较于国外碳排放权市场,我国的碳排放权交易体系交易制度和监管体系等各方面尚待完善。碳排放权价格的波动经常会给投资者、企业、监管带来困扰,这也是当今学者关注的重点。本文采用GARCH-MIDAS模型将碳排放权价格的波动分解为长期和... 相较于国外碳排放权市场,我国的碳排放权交易体系交易制度和监管体系等各方面尚待完善。碳排放权价格的波动经常会给投资者、企业、监管带来困扰,这也是当今学者关注的重点。本文采用GARCH-MIDAS模型将碳排放权价格的波动分解为长期和短期分量,并将经济政策不确定性(EPU)指数作为潜在的影响因子,对设立时间最早且有效交易日较多的深圳碳交易市场进行研究。本文采用GJR-GARCH-MIDAS模型进行比对以将杠杆效应纳入考虑。研究表明,经济政策的变化会加剧碳排放权价格的波动,且这种影响是长久的,而杠杆效应在样本中并不显著。因此,政府应通过出台详细政策指引和增加信息披露透明度来最大化降低这种不确定性所带来的价格波动。 展开更多
关键词 经济政策不确定性 碳交易市场 碳价格波动 杠杆效应 garch-midas
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Prognostic model for esophagogastric variceal rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in liver cirrhosis: A Chinese multicenter study 被引量:2
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作者 Jun-Yi Zhan Jie Chen +7 位作者 Jin-Zhong Yu Fei-Peng Xu Fei-Fei Xing De-Xin Wang Ming-Yan Yang Feng Xing Jian Wang Yong-Ping Mu 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2025年第2期85-101,共17页
BACKGROUND Rebleeding after recovery from esophagogastric variceal bleeding(EGVB)is a severe complication that is associated with high rates of both incidence and mortality.Despite its clinical importance,recognized p... BACKGROUND Rebleeding after recovery from esophagogastric variceal bleeding(EGVB)is a severe complication that is associated with high rates of both incidence and mortality.Despite its clinical importance,recognized prognostic models that can effectively predict esophagogastric variceal rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis are lacking.AIM To construct and externally validate a reliable prognostic model for predicting the occurrence of esophagogastric variceal rebleeding.METHODS This study included 477 EGVB patients across 2 cohorts:The derivation cohort(n=322)and the validation cohort(n=155).The primary outcome was rebleeding events within 1 year.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was applied for predictor selection,and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to construct the prognostic model.Internal validation was performed with bootstrap resampling.We assessed the discrimination,calibration and accuracy of the model,and performed patient risk stratification.RESULTS Six predictors,including albumin and aspartate aminotransferase concentrations,white blood cell count,and the presence of ascites,portal vein thrombosis,and bleeding signs,were selected for the rebleeding event prediction following endoscopic treatment(REPET)model.In predicting rebleeding within 1 year,the REPET model ex-hibited a concordance index of 0.775 and a Brier score of 0.143 in the derivation cohort,alongside 0.862 and 0.127 in the validation cohort.Furthermore,the REPET model revealed a significant difference in rebleeding rates(P<0.01)between low-risk patients and intermediate-to high-risk patients in both cohorts.CONCLUSION We constructed and validated a new prognostic model for variceal rebleeding with excellent predictive per-formance,which will improve the clinical management of rebleeding in EGVB patients. 展开更多
关键词 Esophagogastric variceal bleeding Variceal rebleeding Liver cirrhosis Prognostic model Risk stratification Secondary prophylaxis
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Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using RBFN-Based Ensemble Machine Learning Models 被引量:1
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作者 Duc-Dam Nguyen Nguyen Viet Tiep +5 位作者 Quynh-Anh Thi Bui Hiep Van Le Indra Prakash Romulus Costache Manish Pandey Binh Thai Pham 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2025年第1期467-500,共34页
This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble lear... This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble learning techniques:DAGGING(DG),MULTIBOOST(MB),and ADABOOST(AB).This combination resulted in three distinct ensemble models:DG-RBFN,MB-RBFN,and AB-RBFN.Additionally,a traditional weighted method,Information Value(IV),and a benchmark machine learning(ML)model,Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network(MLP),were employed for comparison and validation.The models were developed using ten landslide conditioning factors,which included slope,aspect,elevation,curvature,land cover,geomorphology,overburden depth,lithology,distance to rivers and distance to roads.These factors were instrumental in predicting the output variable,which was the probability of landslide occurrence.Statistical analysis of the models’performance indicated that the DG-RBFN model,with an Area Under ROC Curve(AUC)of 0.931,outperformed the other models.The AB-RBFN model achieved an AUC of 0.929,the MB-RBFN model had an AUC of 0.913,and the MLP model recorded an AUC of 0.926.These results suggest that the advanced ensemble ML model DG-RBFN was more accurate than traditional statistical model,single MLP model,and other ensemble models in preparing trustworthy landslide susceptibility maps,thereby enhancing land use planning and decision-making. 展开更多
关键词 Landslide susceptibility map spatial analysis ensemble modelling information values(IV)
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An integrated method of data-driven and mechanism models for formation evaluation with logs 被引量:1
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作者 Meng-Lu Kang Jun Zhou +4 位作者 Juan Zhang Li-Zhi Xiao Guang-Zhi Liao Rong-Bo Shao Gang Luo 《Petroleum Science》 2025年第3期1110-1124,共15页
We propose an integrated method of data-driven and mechanism models for well logging formation evaluation,explicitly focusing on predicting reservoir parameters,such as porosity and water saturation.Accurately interpr... We propose an integrated method of data-driven and mechanism models for well logging formation evaluation,explicitly focusing on predicting reservoir parameters,such as porosity and water saturation.Accurately interpreting these parameters is crucial for effectively exploring and developing oil and gas.However,with the increasing complexity of geological conditions in this industry,there is a growing demand for improved accuracy in reservoir parameter prediction,leading to higher costs associated with manual interpretation.The conventional logging interpretation methods rely on empirical relationships between logging data and reservoir parameters,which suffer from low interpretation efficiency,intense subjectivity,and suitability for ideal conditions.The application of artificial intelligence in the interpretation of logging data provides a new solution to the problems existing in traditional methods.It is expected to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the interpretation.If large and high-quality datasets exist,data-driven models can reveal relationships of arbitrary complexity.Nevertheless,constructing sufficiently large logging datasets with reliable labels remains challenging,making it difficult to apply data-driven models effectively in logging data interpretation.Furthermore,data-driven models often act as“black boxes”without explaining their predictions or ensuring compliance with primary physical constraints.This paper proposes a machine learning method with strong physical constraints by integrating mechanism and data-driven models.Prior knowledge of logging data interpretation is embedded into machine learning regarding network structure,loss function,and optimization algorithm.We employ the Physically Informed Auto-Encoder(PIAE)to predict porosity and water saturation,which can be trained without labeled reservoir parameters using self-supervised learning techniques.This approach effectively achieves automated interpretation and facilitates generalization across diverse datasets. 展开更多
关键词 Well log Reservoir evaluation Label scarcity Mechanism model Data-driven model Physically informed model Self-supervised learning Machine learning
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Predictability Study of Weather and Climate Events Related to Artificial Intelligence Models 被引量:2
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作者 Mu MU Bo QIN Guokun DAI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2025年第1期1-8,共8页
Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather an... Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate phenomena.In the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant progress.Nowadays,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful pioneers.In this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization modules.To this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability studies.AI models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven way.Then,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific value.In addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model paradigm.Comprehensive predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences. 展开更多
关键词 PREDICTABILITY artificial intelligence models simulation and forecasting nonlinear optimization cognition–observation–model paradigm
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Sensorless battery expansion estimation using electromechanical coupled models and machine learning 被引量:1
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作者 Xue Cai Caiping Zhang +4 位作者 Jue Chen Zeping Chen Linjing Zhang Dirk Uwe Sauer Weihan Li 《Journal of Energy Chemistry》 2025年第6期142-157,I0004,共17页
Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper... Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper presents a data-driven approach to expansion estimation using electromechanical coupled models with machine learning.The proposed method integrates reduced-order impedance models with data-driven mechanical models,coupling the electrochemical and mechanical states through the state of charge(SOC)and mechanical pressure within a state estimation framework.The coupling relationship was established through experimental insights into pressure-related impedance parameters and the nonlinear mechanical behavior with SOC and pressure.The data-driven model was interpreted by introducing a novel swelling coefficient defined by component stiffnesses to capture the nonlinear mechanical behavior across various mechanical constraints.Sensitivity analysis of the impedance model shows that updating model parameters with pressure can reduce the mean absolute error of simulated voltage by 20 mV and SOC estimation error by 2%.The results demonstrate the model's estimation capabilities,achieving a root mean square error of less than 1 kPa when the maximum expansion force is from 30 kPa to 120 kPa,outperforming calibrated stiffness models and other machine learning techniques.The model's robustness and generalizability are further supported by its effective handling of SOC estimation and pressure measurement errors.This work highlights the importance of the proposed framework in enhancing state estimation and fault diagnosis for lithium-ion batteries. 展开更多
关键词 Sensorless estimation Electromechanical coupling Impedance model Data-driven model Mechanical pressure
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A Multi-Level Semantic Constraint Approach for Highway Tunnel Scene Twin Modeling 被引量:1
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作者 LI Yufei XIE Yakun +3 位作者 CHEN Mingzhen ZHAO Yaoji TU Jiaxing HU Ya 《Journal of Geodesy and Geoinformation Science》 2025年第2期37-56,共20页
As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods ge... As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods generally have problems such as insufficient 3D scene description capability and low dynamic update efficiency,which are difficult to meet the demand of real-time accurate management.For this reason,this paper proposes a vehicle twin modeling method for road tunnels.This approach starts from the actual management needs,and supports multi-level dynamic modeling from vehicle type,size to color by constructing a vehicle model library that can be flexibly invoked;at the same time,semantic constraint rules with geometric layout,behavioral attributes,and spatial relationships are designed to ensure that the virtual model matches with the real model with a high degree of similarity;ultimately,the prototype system is constructed and the case region is selected for the case study,and the dynamic vehicle status in the tunnel is realized by integrating real-time monitoring data with semantic constraints for precise virtual-real mapping.Finally,the prototype system is constructed and case experiments are conducted in selected case areas,which are combined with real-time monitoring data to realize dynamic updating and three-dimensional visualization of vehicle states in tunnels.The experiments show that the proposed method can run smoothly with an average rendering efficiency of 17.70 ms while guaranteeing the modeling accuracy(composite similarity of 0.867),which significantly improves the real-time and intuitive tunnel management.The research results provide reliable technical support for intelligent operation and emergency response of road tunnels,and offer new ideas for digital twin modeling of complex scenes. 展开更多
关键词 highway tunnel twin modeling multi-level semantic constraints tunnel vehicles multidimensional modeling
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Large language models for robotics:Opportunities,challenges,and perspectives 被引量:3
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作者 Jiaqi Wang Enze Shi +7 位作者 Huawen Hu Chong Ma Yiheng Liu Xuhui Wang Yincheng Yao Xuan Liu Bao Ge Shu Zhang 《Journal of Automation and Intelligence》 2025年第1期52-64,共13页
Large language models(LLMs)have undergone significant expansion and have been increasingly integrated across various domains.Notably,in the realm of robot task planning,LLMs harness their advanced reasoning and langua... Large language models(LLMs)have undergone significant expansion and have been increasingly integrated across various domains.Notably,in the realm of robot task planning,LLMs harness their advanced reasoning and language comprehension capabilities to formulate precise and efficient action plans based on natural language instructions.However,for embodied tasks,where robots interact with complex environments,textonly LLMs often face challenges due to a lack of compatibility with robotic visual perception.This study provides a comprehensive overview of the emerging integration of LLMs and multimodal LLMs into various robotic tasks.Additionally,we propose a framework that utilizes multimodal GPT-4V to enhance embodied task planning through the combination of natural language instructions and robot visual perceptions.Our results,based on diverse datasets,indicate that GPT-4V effectively enhances robot performance in embodied tasks.This extensive survey and evaluation of LLMs and multimodal LLMs across a variety of robotic tasks enriches the understanding of LLM-centric embodied intelligence and provides forward-looking insights towards bridging the gap in Human-Robot-Environment interaction. 展开更多
关键词 Large language models ROBOTICS Generative AI Embodied intelligence
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Comparative study on the oblique water-entry of high-speed projectile based on rigid-body and elastic-plastic body model 被引量:1
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作者 Xiangyan Liu Xiaowei Cai +3 位作者 Zhengui Huang Yu Hou Jian Qin Zhihua Chen 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 2025年第4期133-155,共23页
To examine the similarities and differences in the evolution of cavity,wetting and dynamics of a highspeed,oblique water-entry projectile with different positive angles of attack,a comparative analysis has been conduc... To examine the similarities and differences in the evolution of cavity,wetting and dynamics of a highspeed,oblique water-entry projectile with different positive angles of attack,a comparative analysis has been conducted based on the numerical results of two mathematical models,the rigid-body model and fluid-structure interaction model.In addition,the applicable scope of the above two methods,and the structural response characteristics of the projectile have also been investigated.Our results demonstrate that:(1) The impact loads and angular motion of the projectile of the rigid-body method are more likely to exhibit periodic variations due to the periodic tail slap,its range of positive angles of attack is about α<2°.(2) When the projectile undergone significant wetting,a strong coupling effect is observed among wetting,structural deformation,and projectile motion.With the applied projectile shape,it is observed that,when the projectile bends,the final wetting position is that of Part B(cylinder of body).With the occu rrence of this phenomenon,the projectile ballistics beco me completely unstable.(3) The force exerted on the lower surface of the projectile induced by wetting is the primary reason of the destabilization of the projectile traj ectory and structu ral deformation failure.Bending deformation is most likely to appear at the junction of Part C(cone of body) and Part D(tail).The safe angles of attack of the projectile stability are found to be about α≤2°. 展开更多
关键词 Fluid-structure interaction Rigid-body model Elastic-plastic model Structural deformation Impact loads Structural safety of projectile
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Dynamic intelligent prediction approach for landslide displacement based on biological growth models and CNN-LSTM 被引量:2
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作者 WANG Ziqian FANG Xiangwei +3 位作者 ZHANG Wengang WANG Luqi WANG Kai CHEN Chao 《Journal of Mountain Science》 2025年第1期71-88,共18页
Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Reg... Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides. 展开更多
关键词 Reservoir landslides Displacement prediction CNN LSTM Biological growth model
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Fast full-color pathological imaging using Fourier ptychographic microscopy via closed-form model-based colorization 被引量:2
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作者 Yanqi Chen Jiurun Chen +4 位作者 Zhiping Wang Yuting Gao Yonghong He Yishi Shi An Pan 《Advanced Photonics Nexus》 2025年第2期7-16,共10页
Full-color imaging is essential in digital pathology for accurate tissue analysis.Utilizing advanced optical modulation and phase retrieval algorithms,Fourier ptychographic microscopy(FPM)offers a powerful solution fo... Full-color imaging is essential in digital pathology for accurate tissue analysis.Utilizing advanced optical modulation and phase retrieval algorithms,Fourier ptychographic microscopy(FPM)offers a powerful solution for high-throughput digital pathology,combining high resolution,large field of view,and extended depth of field(DOF).However,the full-color capabilities of FPM are hindered by coherent color artifacts and reduced computational efficiency,which significantly limits its practical applications.Color-transferbased FPM(CFPM)has emerged as a potential solution,theoretically reducing both acquisition and reconstruction threefold time.Yet,existing methods fall short of achieving the desired reconstruction speed and colorization quality.In this study,we report a generalized dual-color-space constrained model for FPM colorization.This model provides a mathematical framework for model-based FPM colorization,enabling a closed-form solution without the need for redundant iterative calculations.Our approach,termed generalized CFPM(gCFPM),achieves colorization within seconds for megapixel-scale images,delivering superior colorization quality in terms of both colorfulness and sharpness,along with an extended DOF.Both simulations and experiments demonstrate that gCFPM surpasses state-of-the-art methods across all evaluated criteria.Our work offers a robust and comprehensive workflow for high-throughput full-color pathological imaging using FPM platforms,laying a solid foundation for future advancements in methodology and engineering. 展开更多
关键词 Fourier ptychographic microscopy color transfer dual-color-space constrained model
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Solubility and Thermodynamic Modeling of 3⁃Nitro⁃1,2,4⁃triazole⁃5⁃one(NTO)in Different Binary Solvents 被引量:1
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作者 GUO Hao-qi YANG Yu-lin 《含能材料》 北大核心 2025年第3期295-303,共9页
Using a dynamic laser monitoring technique,the solubility of 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazole-5-one(NTO)was investigated in two different binary systems,namely hydroxylamine nitrate(HAN)-water and boric acid(HB)-water ranging f... Using a dynamic laser monitoring technique,the solubility of 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazole-5-one(NTO)was investigated in two different binary systems,namely hydroxylamine nitrate(HAN)-water and boric acid(HB)-water ranging from 278.15 K to 318.15 K.The solubility in each system was found to be positively correlated with temperature.Furthermore,solubility data were analyzed using four equations:the modified Apelblat equation,Van’t Hoff equation,λh equation and CNIBS/R-K equations,and they provided satisfactory results for both two systems.The average root-mean-square deviation(105RMSD)values for these models were less than 13.93.Calculations utilizing the Van’t Hoff equation and Gibbs equations facilitated the derivation of apparent thermodynamic properties of NTO dissolution in the two systems,including values for Gibbs free energy,enthalpy and entropy.The%ζ_(H)is larger than%ζ_(TS),and all the%ζ_(H)data are≥58.63%,indicating that the enthalpy make a greater contribution than entropy to theΔG_(soln)^(Θ). 展开更多
关键词 3-nitro-l 2 4-triazole-5-one(NTO) SOLUBILITY thermodynamic models apparent thermodynamic analysis
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Behavioral Animal Models and Neural-Circuit Framework of Depressive Disorder 被引量:1
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作者 Xiangyun Tian Scott J.Russo Long Li 《Neuroscience Bulletin》 2025年第2期272-288,共17页
Depressive disorder is a chronic,recurring,and potentially life-endangering neuropsychiatric disease.According to a report by the World Health Organization,the global population suffering from depression is experienci... Depressive disorder is a chronic,recurring,and potentially life-endangering neuropsychiatric disease.According to a report by the World Health Organization,the global population suffering from depression is experiencing a significant annual increase.Despite its prevalence and considerable impact on people,little is known about its pathogenesis.One major reason is the scarcity of reliable animal models due to the absence of consensus on the pathology and etiology of depression.Furthermore,the neural circuit mechanism of depression induced by various factors is particularly complex.Considering the variability in depressive behavior patterns and neurobiological mechanisms among different animal models of depression,a comparison between the neural circuits of depression induced by various factors is essential for its treatment.In this review,we mainly summarize the most widely used behavioral animal models and neural circuits under different triggers of depression,aiming to provide a theoretical basis for depression prevention. 展开更多
关键词 DEPRESSION Animal models STRESS Neural circuits
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