The growth of Sakhalin fir(Abies sachalinen-sis)seedlings,an important forest tree species in northern Hokkaido,Japan,is significantly affected by competition from surrounding vegetation,especially evergreen dwarf bam...The growth of Sakhalin fir(Abies sachalinen-sis)seedlings,an important forest tree species in northern Hokkaido,Japan,is significantly affected by competition from surrounding vegetation,especially evergreen dwarf bamboo.In this study,we investigated the height and root collar diameter(RCD)growth of Sakhalin fir seedlings under various degrees of cover by deciduous vegetation and evergreen dwarf bamboo.Generalized additive models were used to quantify the effects of canopy cover and forest floor cover on the relative growth rates of these two parameters.The canopy cover of Sakhalin fir seedlings had a nonlin-ear negative effect on both the height growth of seedlings in the subsequent year and the RCD growth in the current year,given the general growth pattern in this species,where height growth ceases in early summer and RCD growth con-tinues until autumn.Height growth declined sharply after the canopy cover rate exceeded 50%,while RCD growth declined rapidly between 0 and 50%canopy cover rate.The forest floor cover had a greater negative impact on RCD growth than on height growth.These results suggested that Sakhalin fir seedlings respond to vegetative competition by prioritizing height growth for light acquisition at the expense of diameter growth and possibly root growth for below-ground competition.The cover of evergreen dwarf bamboo reduced the height growth of fir seedlings significantly more than the cover of deciduous vegetation.This difference is likely due to the timing of light availability.When competing with deciduous vegetation,Sakhalin fir seedlings exposed to light during the post-snow melt and early spring before the development of the deciduous vegetation canopy can photosynthesize more effectively,leading to greater height growth.The results of this study highlighted the importance of vegetation control considering the type of vegetation for successful Sakhalin fir reforestation.Adjusting the intensity and timing of weeding based on the presence and abundance of dwarf bamboo and other competing vegetation could potentially reduce weeding costs and increase biodiversity in reforested areas.展开更多
This study aims to provide a predictive vegetation mapping approach based on the spectral data, DEM and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). GAMs were used as a prediction tool to describe the relationship between vege...This study aims to provide a predictive vegetation mapping approach based on the spectral data, DEM and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). GAMs were used as a prediction tool to describe the relationship between vegetation and environmental variables, as well as spectral variables. Based on the fitted GAMs model, probability map of species occurrence was generated and then vegetation type of each grid was defined according to the probability of species occurrence. Deviance analysis was employed to test the goodness of curve fitting and drop contribution calculation was used to evaluate the contribution of each predictor in the fitted GAMs models. Area under curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to assess the results maps of probability. The results showed that: 1) AUC values of the fitted GAMs models are very high which proves that integrating spectral data and environmental variables based on the GAMs is a feasible way to map the vegetation. 2) Prediction accuracy varies with plant community, and community with dense cover is better predicted than sparse plant community. 3) Both spectral variables and environmental variables play an important role in mapping the vegetation. However, the contribution of the same predictor in the GAMs models for different plant communities is different. 4) Insufficient resolution of spectral data, environmental data and confounding effects of land use and other variables which are not closely related to the environmental conditions are the major causes of imprecision.展开更多
The spatiotemporal distribution and relationship between nominal catch-per-unit-ef fort(CPUE) and environment for the jumbo flying squid( Dosidicus gigas) were examined in of fshore Peruvian waters during 2009–2013. ...The spatiotemporal distribution and relationship between nominal catch-per-unit-ef fort(CPUE) and environment for the jumbo flying squid( Dosidicus gigas) were examined in of fshore Peruvian waters during 2009–2013. Three typical oceanographic factors aff ecting the squid habitat were investigated in this research, including sea surface temperature(SST), sea surface salinity(SSS) and sea surface height(SSH). We studied the CPUE-environment relationships for D. gigas using a spatially-lagged version of spatial autoregressive(SAR) model and a generalized additive model(GAM), with the latter for auxiliary and comparative purposes. The annual fishery centroids were distributed broadly in an area bounded by 79.5°–82.7°W and 11.9°–17.1°S, while the monthly fishery centroids were spatially close and lay in a smaller area bounded by 81.0°–81.2°W and 14.3°–15.4°S. Our results show that the preferred environmental ranges for D. gigas offshore Peru were 20.9°–21.9°C for SST, 35.16–35.32 for SSS and 27.2–31.5 cm for SSH in the areas bounded by 78°–80°W/82–84°W and 15°–18°S. Monthly spatial distributions during October to December were predicted using the calibrated GAM and SAR models and general similarities were found between the observed and predicted patterns for the nominal CPUE of D. gigas. The overall accuracies for the hotspots generated by the SAR model were much higher than those produced by the GAM model for all three months. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of D. gigas off shore Peru, and off er a new SAR modeling method for advancing fishery science.展开更多
[Objective]The construction of weirs changes the hydraulic characteristics of rivers and affects the structure of phytoplankton communities and the health of aquatic ecosystems in the river.This study aims to explore ...[Objective]The construction of weirs changes the hydraulic characteristics of rivers and affects the structure of phytoplankton communities and the health of aquatic ecosystems in the river.This study aims to explore the nonlinear response relationship between phytoplankton community structure and its driving factors in spring and autumn in Furong Creek under the construction of cascade weirs.[Methods]The structure of phytoplankton communities and related environmental factors were investigated in Furong Creek from 2023 to 2024.This study focused on the analysis of the changes of nutrient concentrations and biomass of phytoplankton in autumn and spring within the same dry season in Furong Creek.Redundancy analysis was used to identify the key factors influencing the structure of phytoplankton communities.The MIKE 11 model was employed to simulate the hydrodynamic changes in the river.Combined with total nitrogen and permanganate index,a GAM model of phytoplankton diversity index and hydrodynamic factors was developed,and the change of phytoplankton diversity after the optimized layout of the cascade weirs was fitted.[Results]The result showed that the annual average value of Shannon-Wiener diversity index of phytoplankton in Furong Creek was 2.79,which was in a state of mild pollution.A total of 239 species from 95 genera in 8 phyla were identified.Among the phytoplankton,Chlorophyta was the dominant group throughout the year in Furong Creek,followed by Bacillariophyta and Cyanophyta.The cell abundance of phytoplankton ranged from 3.11 to 20.64 mg/L and from 0.23 to 6.31 mg/L in spring and autumn,which indicated a clear seasonal succession of phytoplankton community structure.Compared with autumn,the relative abundance of Cyanophyta significantly decreased in spring across the whole river section,while Chrysophyta and Dinophyta showed significant increase at some monitoring sites,leading to water bloom phenomenon and a noticeable decline in the diversity of phytoplankton.The dominant species in the water bodies throughout the year were Cyclotella catenata,Chlorella vulgaris,Scenedesmus bijuga,Scenedesmus quadricauda,Chroomonas acuta,Cryptomonas ovata,and Cryptomonas erosa.Redundancy analysis(RDA)showed that hydrodynamic factors(v,h)and water environmental factors(TN,COD_(Mn))were the main influencing factors of phytoplankton community structure.[Conclusion]The result show that the nutrient concentration,phytoplankton biomass,and density in Furong Creek in spring are significantly higher than in autumn.The GAM model,constructed by combining hydrodynamic and environmental factors,can effectively reflect the nonlinear relationship between phytoplankton diversity index and its driving factors.In spring,with an increase in nutrient concentration,the habitat conditions of low flow speed and high water depths formed by overflow weirs will lead to a decrease in the Shannon-Wiener index of phytoplankton and an intensified risk of eutrophication.However,a reasonable layout scheme of cascade weirs will improve the diversity of phytoplankton and reduce the risk of eutrophication in the river.The findings of this study can help deepen the understanding of the ecological and environmental effects of cascade weir construction in the river.展开更多
To investigate the response of Roadside Monitoring Stations(RSs)to traffic-related air pollution,traffic and pollutant characteristics,influencing factors,and potential source characterization in Tianjin,China were de...To investigate the response of Roadside Monitoring Stations(RSs)to traffic-related air pollution,traffic and pollutant characteristics,influencing factors,and potential source characterization in Tianjin,China were determined based on roadside monitoring of real-world data conducted at RSs in 2022.The diurnal variation trend of pollutants at RSs was consistent with that at the National Monitoring Station(NM),with notably higher pollutant fluctuations during the morning and evening peak traffic times at RSs,where the average diurnal concentration was 41.46%higher than that at the NM.The generalized additive model(GAM)for nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))and carbon monoxide(CO),responding to themultiple influencing factors,performed well at RSs,with deviance explained by 86.6%and 61.4%,respectively.The synergistic effects of wind direction and speed contributed to most of the variations in NO_(x) and CO,which were 14.74%and 12.87%,respectively.Pollutant concentrations were highest under windless conditions,with pollutants originating primarily from local vehicle emissions.The model results indicated that medium-duty truck(MDT)traffic flow predominantly contributed to the variability in NO_(x) emissions,whereas passenger car(PC)traffic flow was the primary source of CO emissions from traffic variables.MDTs should be the focus of urban NO_(x) traffic emissions control.Potential-source analysis validated the results obtained from the GAM,and both analyses showed that RSs can better characterize traffic-related air pollutants.Furthermore,more stringent emission standards have effectively mitigated the release of pollutants from motor vehicles and contributed to the modernization of vehicle fleet composition,effectively decreasing CO concentrations.展开更多
We used generalized additive models (GAM) to analyze the relationship between spatiotemporal factors and catch, and to estimate the monthly marine fishery yield of single otter trawls in Putuo district of Zhoushan, Ch...We used generalized additive models (GAM) to analyze the relationship between spatiotemporal factors and catch, and to estimate the monthly marine fishery yield of single otter trawls in Putuo district of Zhoushan, China. We used logbooks from five commercial fishing boats and data in government's monthly statistical reports. We developed two GAM models: one included temporal variables (month and hauling time) and spatial variables (longitude and latitude), and another included just two variables, month and the number of fishing boats. Our results suggest that temporal factors explained more of the variability in catch than spatial factors. Furthermore, month explained the majority of variation in catch. Change in spatial distribution of fleet had a temporal component as the boats fished within a relatively small area within the same month, but the area varied among months. The number of boats fishing in each month also explained a large proportion of the variation in catch. Engine power had no effect on catch. The pseudo-coefficients (PCf) of the two GAMs were 0.13 and 0.29 respectively, indicating the both had good fits. The model yielded estimates that were very similar to those in the governmental reports between January to September, with relative estimate errors (REE) of <18%. However, the yields in October and November were significantly underestimated, with REEs of 36% and 27%, respectively.展开更多
In the present study,we investigated a shift in the spatial distribution of wintering anchovy(Engraulis japonicus)and its relationship with water temperature,using data collected by bottom trawl surveys and remote sen...In the present study,we investigated a shift in the spatial distribution of wintering anchovy(Engraulis japonicus)and its relationship with water temperature,using data collected by bottom trawl surveys and remote sensing in the central and southern Yellow Sea,during 2000–2015.Our results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of wintering anchovy varied between years,but there was no consistent pattern in the direction of change(north or south).Wintering anchovy did not move northward with increasing water temperature.However,the latitudinal distribution of wintering anchovy correlated well with 10°C and 11°C isotherms.The results of both a one-step and a two-step generalized additive model indicated that water temperature was associated with both presence and biomass of wintering anchovy.This paper is the fi rst to systematically examine the relationship between anchovy distribution and water temperature using a variety of techniques.All the fi ndings confi rm the impact of water temperature on wintering anchovy distribution,which has important implications for the continued management of the anchovy resource and the enhancement of marine fi shery resources in the Yellow Sea,especially as the climate changes.However water temperature only partly explains the species distribution of anchovy,and stock characteristics also aff ect fi shery distribution.Therefore,other factors should be considered in future research.展开更多
Soil acidification is a major global issue of sustainable development for ecosystems. The increasing soil acidity induced by excessive nitrogen （N） fertilization in farmlands has profoundly impacted the soil carbon ...Soil acidification is a major global issue of sustainable development for ecosystems. The increasing soil acidity induced by excessive nitrogen （N） fertilization in farmlands has profoundly impacted the soil carbon dynamics. However, the way in which changes in soil pH regulating the soil carbon dynamics in a deep soil profile is still not well elucidated. In this study, through a 12-year field N fertilization experiment with three N fertilizer treatments （0, 120, and 240 kg N/（hm-2·a）） in a dryland agroecosystem of China, we explored the soil pH changes over a soil profile up to a depth of 200 cm and determined the responses of soil organic carbon （SOC） and soil inorganic carbon （SIC） to the changed soil pH. Using a generalized additive model, we identified the soil depth intervals with the most powerful statistical relationships between changes in soil pH and soil carbon dynamics. Hierarchical responses of SOC and SIC dynamics to soil acidification were found. The results indicate that the changes in soil pH explained the SOC dynamics well by using a non-linear relationship at the soil depth of 0-80 cm （P=0.006）, whereas the changes in soil pH were significantly linearly correlated with SIC dynamics at the 100-180 cm soil depth （P=0.015）. After a long-term N fertilization in the experimental field, the soil pH value decreased in all three N fertilizer treatments. Furthermore, the declines in soil pH in the deep soil layer （100-200 cm） were significantly greater （P=0.035） than those in the upper soil layer （0-80 cm）. These results indicate that soil acidification in the upper soil layer can transfer excess protons to the deep soil layer, and subsequently, the structural heterogeneous responses of SOC and SIC to soil acidification were identified because of different buffer capacities for the SOC and SIC. To better estimate the effects of soil acidification on soil carbon dynamics, we suggest that future investigations for soil acidification should be extended to a deeper soil depth, e.g., 200 cm.展开更多
In recent years,Konosirus punctatus has accounted for a large portion in catch composition and become important economic species in the South Yellow Sea.However,the distribution of K.punctatus early life stages is sti...In recent years,Konosirus punctatus has accounted for a large portion in catch composition and become important economic species in the South Yellow Sea.However,the distribution of K.punctatus early life stages is still poorly understood.In this study,generalized additive models with Tweedie distribution were used to analyze the relationships between K.punctatus ichthyoplankton and environmental factors(longitude and latitude,sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface salinity(SSS)and depth),and predict distribution K.punctatus spawning ground and nursing ground,based on samplings collected in 6 months during 2014–2017.The results showed that K.punctatus’spawning ground were mainly distributed in central and north study area(from 33.0°N to 37.0°N).By comparison,the nursing ground shifted southward,which were approximately located along central and south coast of study area(from 31.7°N to 35.5°N).The optimal models identified that suitable SST,SSS and depth for eggs were 19–26℃,25–30 and 9–23 m,respectively.The suitable SSS for larvae were 29–31.The K.punctatus spawning habit might have changed in the past decades,which was a response to increasing SST and fishing pressure.That needs to be proved in further study.The study provides references of conservation and exploitation for K.punctatus.展开更多
We investigated the spatio-temporal and environmental factors that affect the distribution and abundance of wintering anchovy and quantifi es the infl uences of these factors. Generalized additive models(GAMs) were de...We investigated the spatio-temporal and environmental factors that affect the distribution and abundance of wintering anchovy and quantifi es the infl uences of these factors. Generalized additive models(GAMs) were developed to examine the variation in species distribution and abundance with a set of spatiotemporal and oceanographic factors, using data collected by bottom trawl surveys and remote sensing in the central and southern Yellow Sea during 2000–2011. The fi nal model accounted for 28.21% and 41.03% of the variance in anchovy distribution and abundance, respectively. The results of a two-step GAM showed that hour, longitude, latitude, temperature gradient(TGR), and chlorophyll a(Chl- a) concentration best explained the anchovy distribution(presence/absence) and that a model including year, longitude, latitude, depth, sea surface temperature(SST), and TGR best described anchovy abundance(given presence). Longitude and latitude were the most important factors affecting both distribution and abundance, but the area of high abundance tended to be east and south of the area where anchovy were most likely to be present. Hour had a signifi cant effect on distribution, but year was more important for anchovy abundance, indicating that the anchovy catch ratio varied across the day but abundance had an apparent interannual variation. With respect to environmental factors, TGR and Chl- a concentration had effects on distribution, while depth, SST, and TGR affected abundance. Changes in SST between two successive years or between any year and the 2000–2011 mean were not associated with changes in anchovy distribution or abundance. This fi nding indicated that short- and long-term water temperature changes during 2000–2011 were not of suffi cient magnitude to give rise to variation in wintering anchovy distribution or abundance in the study area. The results of this study have important implications for fi sheries management.展开更多
Determining scale and variable effects have critical importance in developing an energy resource policy.This study aims to explore the relationships in heterogeneous lignite sites using different scale models,spatial ...Determining scale and variable effects have critical importance in developing an energy resource policy.This study aims to explore the relationships in heterogeneous lignite sites using different scale models,spatial weighting as well as error-based pair-wise identification.From a statistical learning framework,the relationships among the quality variables such as geochemical variables and the contributions of the coordinates to quality measures have been exhibited by generalized additive models.In this way,the critical roles of spatial weights provided by the coordinates have been specified at a global scale.The experimental studies reveal that incorporating the geological weighting in the models as the additional information improves both accuracy and transparency.Because relationships among lignite quality variables and sampling locations are spatially non-stationary,the local structure and interdependencies among the variables were analyzed by geographically weighting regression.The local analyses including spatial patterns of bandwidths,search domains as well as residual-based areal dependencies provided not only the critical zones but also availability of pair-wise model alternatives by calibrating a model at each point for location-specific parameter learning.The results completely show that the weighting models applied at different scales can take spatial heterogeneity into consideration and these abilities provide some meta-data and specific information using in sustainable energy planning.展开更多
Despite millions of seafarers and passengers staying on ships each year, few studies have been conducted on the indoor air quality inside ship hulls. In this study, we investigated the levels and size distribution of ...Despite millions of seafarers and passengers staying on ships each year, few studies have been conducted on the indoor air quality inside ship hulls. In this study, we investigated the levels and size distribution of indoor particulate matter during two cruises of the research vessel “Xuelong” from Shanghai to Antarctica. The results showed that the particle size less than 2.5 μm(PM_(2.5)), and particle size less than 10 μm(PM_(10)) concentrations in different rooms of the ship widely varied. We observed high particulate matter(PM) levels in some of the rooms. The mass concentration distribution was dominated by 1–4 μm particles, which may have been caused by the hygroscopic growth of fine particles. The dominant factors influencing PM concentrations were indoor temperature, relative humidity, and human activity. We quantified contributions of these factors to the levels of indoor particles using a generalized additive model. In clean rooms, the levels of indoor particles were controlled by temperature and relative humidity, whereas in polluted rooms, the levels of indoor particles were mainly influenced by temperature and human activity, which implied that controlling temperature and human activity would efficiently reduce the levels of indoor particles.展开更多
Climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities,such as over-exploitation of groundwater,are exerting unavoidable stress on groundwater resources.This study investigated the spatio-temporal variation of depth t...Climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities,such as over-exploitation of groundwater,are exerting unavoidable stress on groundwater resources.This study investigated the spatio-temporal variation of depth to groundwater level(DGWL)and the impacts of climatic(precipitation,maximum temperature,and minimum temperature)and anthropogenic(gross district product(GDP),population,and net irrigated area(NIA))variables on DGWL during 1994-2020.The study considered DGWL in 113 observation wells and piezometers located in arid western plains(Barmer and Jodhpur districts)and semi-arid eastern plains(Jaipur,Ajmer,Dausa,and Tonk districts)of Rajasthan State,India.Statistical methods were employed to examine the annual and seasonal patterns of DGWL,and the generalized additive model(GAM)was used to determine the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic variables on DGWL.During 1994-2020,except for Barmer District,where the mean annual DGWL was almost constant(around 26.50 m),all other districts exhibited increase in DGWL,with Ajmer District experiencing the most increase.The results also revealed that 36 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant annual increasing trend in DGWL and 34 observation wells and piezometers exhibited a statistically significant decreasing trend in DGWL.Similarly,32 observation wells and piezometers showed an statistically significant increasing trend and 37 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in winter;33 observation wells and piezometers indicated a statistically significant increasing trend and 34 had a statistically significant decreasing trend in post-monsoon;35 observation wells and piezometers exhibited a statistically significant increasing trend and 32 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in pre-monsoon;and 36 observation wells and piezometers reflected a statistically significant increasing trend and 30 observation wells and piezometers reflected a statistically significant decreasing trend in monsoon.Interestingly,most of the observation wells and piezometers with increasing trends of DGWL were located in Dausa and Jaipur districts.Furthermore,the GAM analysis revealed that climatic variables,such as precipitation,significantly affected DGWL in Barmer District,and DGWL in all other districts was influenced by anthropogenic variables,including GDP,NIA,and population.As a result,stringent regulations should be implemented to curb excessive groundwater extraction,manage agricultural water demand,initiate proactive aquifer recharge programs,and strengthen sustainable management in these water-scarce regions.展开更多
In Central Europe,anthropogenic coniferous monocultures have been subject to conversion to more diverse mixed forests since the 1990s,however,they are still abundant across many forest landscapes.Artificial and natura...In Central Europe,anthropogenic coniferous monocultures have been subject to conversion to more diverse mixed forests since the 1990s,however,they are still abundant across many forest landscapes.Artificial and natural tree regeneration both play a key role during conversion by determining the species composition and structure of the future forests.Many abiotic and biotic factors can potentially influence the regeneration process and its specific combinations or interactions may be different among tree species and its developmental stages.Here,we aimed to identify and quantify the effect of the most important drivers on the density of the most abundant regenerating tree species(i.e.,Norway spruce and European beech),as well as on species and structural diversity of the tree regeneration.We studied tree regeneration in four former monospecific coniferous stand types(i.e.,Norway spruce,Scots pine,European larch,and Douglas fir)in Southwest Germany that have been under conversion to mixed forests since the 1990s.We sampled tree regeneration in four growth height classes together with a variety of potentially influencing factors on 108 sampling plots and applied multivariate analyses.We identified light availability in the understorey,stand structural attributes,browsing pressure,and diaspore source abundance as the most important factors for the density and diversity of tree regeneration.Particularly,we revealed speciesspecific differences in drivers of regeneration density.While spruce profited from increasing light availability and decreasing stand basal area,beech benefited either from a minor reduction or more strikingly from an increase in overstorey density.Increasing diaspore source abundance positively and a high browsing pressure negatively affected both species equally.Our results suggest that humus and topsoil properties were modified during conversion,probably due to changes in tree species composition and silvicultural activities.The species and structural diversity of the tree regeneration benefitted from increasing light availability,decreasing stand basal area,and a low to moderate browsing pressure.We conclude that forest managers may carefully equilibrate among the regulation of overstorey cover,stand basal area,and browsing pressure to fulfil the objectives of forest conversion,i.e.,establishing and safeguarding a diverse tree regeneration to promote the development of mature mixed forests in the future.展开更多
Most rainfall-induced landslide forecasting models focus on the relation between landslides and rainfall,which is one of the dynamic factors,and seldom consider the stacitc factors,such as geological and geograpical f...Most rainfall-induced landslide forecasting models focus on the relation between landslides and rainfall,which is one of the dynamic factors,and seldom consider the stacitc factors,such as geological and geograpical factors.Landslide susceptibility,however,is determinded by both static and dynamic factors.This article proposes a static and dynamic factors-coupled forecasting model(SDFCFM) of regional rainfall-induced landslides,which quantitatively considers both the static and dynamic factors that affect landslides.The generalized additive model(GAM) is applied to coupling both factors to get the landslide susceptibility.In the case study,SDFCFM is applied to forecast the landslide occurrences in Shenzhen during a rainfall process in 2008.Compared with the rainfall logistic regression model,the resulting landslide susceptibility map illustrates that SDFCFM can reduce the forecast redundancy and improve the hit ratio.It is both applicable and practical.The application of SDFCFM in landslide warning and prevention system will improve its efficiency and also cut down the cost of human and matreial resources.展开更多
This paper aims to optimize total energy costs in an operational model of a novel energy hub(EH) in a residential area. The optimization problem is set up based on daily load demand(such as electricity, heat, and cool...This paper aims to optimize total energy costs in an operational model of a novel energy hub(EH) in a residential area. The optimization problem is set up based on daily load demand(such as electricity, heat, and cooling) and time-of-use(TOU) energy prices. The extended EH model considers the involvement of solar photovoltaic(PV) generation, solar heat exchanger(SHE), and a battery energy storage system(BESS). A mathematical model is constructed with the objective of optimizing total energy cost during the day, including some constraints such as input-output energy balance of the EH, electricity price,capacity limitation of the system, and charge/discharge power of BESS. Four operational cases based on different EH structures are compared to assess the effect of solar energy applications and BESS on the operational efficiency. The results show that the proposed model predicts significant changes to the characteristics of electricity and gas power bought from utilities, leading to reduced total energy cost compared to other cases. They also indicate that the model is appropriate for the characteristics of residential loads.展开更多
Objective To assess the association between shortterm ambient air pollution exposure and arterial stiffness and whether obesity modifies these associations.Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted based on Fangsh...Objective To assess the association between shortterm ambient air pollution exposure and arterial stiffness and whether obesity modifies these associations.Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted based on Fangshan family cohort in Beijing.The 24 hours average air pollutant levels on the day cohort participants took baseline survey were calculated1asshort-term air pollution.A generalized additive model(GAM)with Gaussian links was used to estimate changes in typical carotid artery intima-media thickness(CIMT),brachialankle pulse wave velocity(BAPWV),pulse pressure(PP)and ankle-branchial index(ABI)after short-term exposure to each air pollution(PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2),CO).The cross-product terms of each air pollution,body mass index(BMI),and waist-to-hip ratio were included in the GAM model to test the interaction.Further,they conducted a stratified analysis to test their effects on the relationship between short-term exposure to each air pollution and the arterial stiffness indicators.Results A total of 4211 individuals were included in the analysis.Individuals'age was(58.9±8.7)years,of whom 2268(53.9%)were female.Several covariates,including sociodemographic factors,lifestyle behaviors,and history of drugs,were included in the analysis.The results of the GAM analysis showed that an increase in PM_(2.5)(β=2.912×10^(-4),95%CI:1.424×10^(-4)-4.400×10^(-4),P<0.001),C0(β=0.027,95%CI:0.011-0.043,P<0.001),S0_(2)(β=2.070×10-3,95%CI:7.060×10^(-4)-3.430×10^(-3),P=0.003),and NO(β=3.650×10^(-4),95%CI:2.340×10^(-5)-7.060×10^(-4),P=0.036)were associated with an increase in CIMT,while an increase in PMio(β=0.018,95%Cl:0.002-0.033,P=0.028)was associated with an increase in PP in the study population.Besides,the waist-to-hip ratio had an effect-modification on the correlation of short-term exposure of PM2.s(interaction P=0.015),NO_(2)(interaction P=0.008),and CO(interaction P=0.044)with CIMT,and the correlation between short-term exposure of PM_(2.5)(interaction P=0.002),NO_(2)(interaction P=0.010),CO(interaction P=0.029),PM_(10)(interaction P<0.001)with PP.The significant association between CIMT,PP,and air pollution concentrations was more visible in people with lower waist-to-hip ratios.Conclusion Short-term ambient air pollution exposure is associated with arterial stiffness indicators,and there is an effect modification of waist-tohip ratio on these associations,and lower waist-to-hip ratios may enhance the association between air pollution exposure and indicators.展开更多
North-east （NE） China covers considerable climatic gradients and all major forests types of NE Asia. in the present study, 10 major forest types across the forest region of NE China were sampled to Investigate fores...North-east （NE） China covers considerable climatic gradients and all major forests types of NE Asia. in the present study, 10 major forest types across the forest region of NE China were sampled to Investigate forest distribution in relation to climate. Canonical correspondence analysis （CCA） revealed that growing season precipitation and energy availability were primary climatic factors for the overall forest pattern of NE China, accounting for 66% of the explanatory power of CCA. Conversely, annual precipitation and winter coldness had minor effects. Generalized additive models revealed that tree species responded to climatic gradients differently and showed three types of response curve： （i） monotonous decline; （ii） monotonous Increase; and （iii） a unimodai pattern. Furthermore, tree species showed remarkable differences in limiting climatic factors for their distribution. The power of climate in explaining species distribution declined significantly with decreasing species dominance, suggesting that the distribution of dominant species was primarily controlled by climate, whereas that of subordinate species was more affected by competition from other species.展开更多
The dynamic pricing environment offers flexibility to the consumers to reschedule their switching appliances.Though the dynamic pricing environment results in several benefits to the utilities and consumers,it also po...The dynamic pricing environment offers flexibility to the consumers to reschedule their switching appliances.Though the dynamic pricing environment results in several benefits to the utilities and consumers,it also poses some challenges.The crowding among residential customers is one of such challenges.The scheduling of loads at low-cost intervals causes crowding among residential customers,which leads to a fall in voltage of the distribution system below its prescribed limits.In order to prevent crowding phenomena,this paper proposes a priority-based demand response program for local energy communities.In the program,past contributions made by residential houses and demand are considered as essential parameters while calculating the priority factor.The non-linear programming(NLP)model proposed in this study seeks to reschedule loads at low-cost intervals to alleviate crowding phenomena.Since the NLP model does not guarantee global optima due to its non-convex nature,a second-order cone programming model is proposed,which captures power flow characteristics and guarantees global optimum.The proposed formulation is solved using General Algebraic Modeling System(GAMS)software and is tested on a 12.66 kV IEEE 33-bus distribution system,which demonstrates its applicability and efficacy.展开更多
基金supported by the Ministry of Agriculture,Forestry,and Fisheries of Japan (25093 C)JSPS KAKENHI (JP23H02262)
文摘The growth of Sakhalin fir(Abies sachalinen-sis)seedlings,an important forest tree species in northern Hokkaido,Japan,is significantly affected by competition from surrounding vegetation,especially evergreen dwarf bamboo.In this study,we investigated the height and root collar diameter(RCD)growth of Sakhalin fir seedlings under various degrees of cover by deciduous vegetation and evergreen dwarf bamboo.Generalized additive models were used to quantify the effects of canopy cover and forest floor cover on the relative growth rates of these two parameters.The canopy cover of Sakhalin fir seedlings had a nonlin-ear negative effect on both the height growth of seedlings in the subsequent year and the RCD growth in the current year,given the general growth pattern in this species,where height growth ceases in early summer and RCD growth con-tinues until autumn.Height growth declined sharply after the canopy cover rate exceeded 50%,while RCD growth declined rapidly between 0 and 50%canopy cover rate.The forest floor cover had a greater negative impact on RCD growth than on height growth.These results suggested that Sakhalin fir seedlings respond to vegetative competition by prioritizing height growth for light acquisition at the expense of diameter growth and possibly root growth for below-ground competition.The cover of evergreen dwarf bamboo reduced the height growth of fir seedlings significantly more than the cover of deciduous vegetation.This difference is likely due to the timing of light availability.When competing with deciduous vegetation,Sakhalin fir seedlings exposed to light during the post-snow melt and early spring before the development of the deciduous vegetation canopy can photosynthesize more effectively,leading to greater height growth.The results of this study highlighted the importance of vegetation control considering the type of vegetation for successful Sakhalin fir reforestation.Adjusting the intensity and timing of weeding based on the presence and abundance of dwarf bamboo and other competing vegetation could potentially reduce weeding costs and increase biodiversity in reforested areas.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41001363)
文摘This study aims to provide a predictive vegetation mapping approach based on the spectral data, DEM and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). GAMs were used as a prediction tool to describe the relationship between vegetation and environmental variables, as well as spectral variables. Based on the fitted GAMs model, probability map of species occurrence was generated and then vegetation type of each grid was defined according to the probability of species occurrence. Deviance analysis was employed to test the goodness of curve fitting and drop contribution calculation was used to evaluate the contribution of each predictor in the fitted GAMs models. Area under curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to assess the results maps of probability. The results showed that: 1) AUC values of the fitted GAMs models are very high which proves that integrating spectral data and environmental variables based on the GAMs is a feasible way to map the vegetation. 2) Prediction accuracy varies with plant community, and community with dense cover is better predicted than sparse plant community. 3) Both spectral variables and environmental variables play an important role in mapping the vegetation. However, the contribution of the same predictor in the GAMs models for different plant communities is different. 4) Insufficient resolution of spectral data, environmental data and confounding effects of land use and other variables which are not closely related to the environmental conditions are the major causes of imprecision.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41406146,41476129)the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai Municipality(No.13ZR1419300)the Shanghai Universities FirstClass Disciplines Project-Fisheries(A)
文摘The spatiotemporal distribution and relationship between nominal catch-per-unit-ef fort(CPUE) and environment for the jumbo flying squid( Dosidicus gigas) were examined in of fshore Peruvian waters during 2009–2013. Three typical oceanographic factors aff ecting the squid habitat were investigated in this research, including sea surface temperature(SST), sea surface salinity(SSS) and sea surface height(SSH). We studied the CPUE-environment relationships for D. gigas using a spatially-lagged version of spatial autoregressive(SAR) model and a generalized additive model(GAM), with the latter for auxiliary and comparative purposes. The annual fishery centroids were distributed broadly in an area bounded by 79.5°–82.7°W and 11.9°–17.1°S, while the monthly fishery centroids were spatially close and lay in a smaller area bounded by 81.0°–81.2°W and 14.3°–15.4°S. Our results show that the preferred environmental ranges for D. gigas offshore Peru were 20.9°–21.9°C for SST, 35.16–35.32 for SSS and 27.2–31.5 cm for SSH in the areas bounded by 78°–80°W/82–84°W and 15°–18°S. Monthly spatial distributions during October to December were predicted using the calibrated GAM and SAR models and general similarities were found between the observed and predicted patterns for the nominal CPUE of D. gigas. The overall accuracies for the hotspots generated by the SAR model were much higher than those produced by the GAM model for all three months. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of D. gigas off shore Peru, and off er a new SAR modeling method for advancing fishery science.
文摘[Objective]The construction of weirs changes the hydraulic characteristics of rivers and affects the structure of phytoplankton communities and the health of aquatic ecosystems in the river.This study aims to explore the nonlinear response relationship between phytoplankton community structure and its driving factors in spring and autumn in Furong Creek under the construction of cascade weirs.[Methods]The structure of phytoplankton communities and related environmental factors were investigated in Furong Creek from 2023 to 2024.This study focused on the analysis of the changes of nutrient concentrations and biomass of phytoplankton in autumn and spring within the same dry season in Furong Creek.Redundancy analysis was used to identify the key factors influencing the structure of phytoplankton communities.The MIKE 11 model was employed to simulate the hydrodynamic changes in the river.Combined with total nitrogen and permanganate index,a GAM model of phytoplankton diversity index and hydrodynamic factors was developed,and the change of phytoplankton diversity after the optimized layout of the cascade weirs was fitted.[Results]The result showed that the annual average value of Shannon-Wiener diversity index of phytoplankton in Furong Creek was 2.79,which was in a state of mild pollution.A total of 239 species from 95 genera in 8 phyla were identified.Among the phytoplankton,Chlorophyta was the dominant group throughout the year in Furong Creek,followed by Bacillariophyta and Cyanophyta.The cell abundance of phytoplankton ranged from 3.11 to 20.64 mg/L and from 0.23 to 6.31 mg/L in spring and autumn,which indicated a clear seasonal succession of phytoplankton community structure.Compared with autumn,the relative abundance of Cyanophyta significantly decreased in spring across the whole river section,while Chrysophyta and Dinophyta showed significant increase at some monitoring sites,leading to water bloom phenomenon and a noticeable decline in the diversity of phytoplankton.The dominant species in the water bodies throughout the year were Cyclotella catenata,Chlorella vulgaris,Scenedesmus bijuga,Scenedesmus quadricauda,Chroomonas acuta,Cryptomonas ovata,and Cryptomonas erosa.Redundancy analysis(RDA)showed that hydrodynamic factors(v,h)and water environmental factors(TN,COD_(Mn))were the main influencing factors of phytoplankton community structure.[Conclusion]The result show that the nutrient concentration,phytoplankton biomass,and density in Furong Creek in spring are significantly higher than in autumn.The GAM model,constructed by combining hydrodynamic and environmental factors,can effectively reflect the nonlinear relationship between phytoplankton diversity index and its driving factors.In spring,with an increase in nutrient concentration,the habitat conditions of low flow speed and high water depths formed by overflow weirs will lead to a decrease in the Shannon-Wiener index of phytoplankton and an intensified risk of eutrophication.However,a reasonable layout scheme of cascade weirs will improve the diversity of phytoplankton and reduce the risk of eutrophication in the river.The findings of this study can help deepen the understanding of the ecological and environmental effects of cascade weir construction in the river.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Nos.2023YFC3707301 and 2023YFC3705400)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.ZB23003425 and 63211075)。
文摘To investigate the response of Roadside Monitoring Stations(RSs)to traffic-related air pollution,traffic and pollutant characteristics,influencing factors,and potential source characterization in Tianjin,China were determined based on roadside monitoring of real-world data conducted at RSs in 2022.The diurnal variation trend of pollutants at RSs was consistent with that at the National Monitoring Station(NM),with notably higher pollutant fluctuations during the morning and evening peak traffic times at RSs,where the average diurnal concentration was 41.46%higher than that at the NM.The generalized additive model(GAM)for nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))and carbon monoxide(CO),responding to themultiple influencing factors,performed well at RSs,with deviance explained by 86.6%and 61.4%,respectively.The synergistic effects of wind direction and speed contributed to most of the variations in NO_(x) and CO,which were 14.74%and 12.87%,respectively.Pollutant concentrations were highest under windless conditions,with pollutants originating primarily from local vehicle emissions.The model results indicated that medium-duty truck(MDT)traffic flow predominantly contributed to the variability in NO_(x) emissions,whereas passenger car(PC)traffic flow was the primary source of CO emissions from traffic variables.MDTs should be the focus of urban NO_(x) traffic emissions control.Potential-source analysis validated the results obtained from the GAM,and both analyses showed that RSs can better characterize traffic-related air pollutants.Furthermore,more stringent emission standards have effectively mitigated the release of pollutants from motor vehicles and contributed to the modernization of vehicle fleet composition,effectively decreasing CO concentrations.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation for Young Scientists of China (No. 40801225)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (No. Y3090038)
文摘We used generalized additive models (GAM) to analyze the relationship between spatiotemporal factors and catch, and to estimate the monthly marine fishery yield of single otter trawls in Putuo district of Zhoushan, China. We used logbooks from five commercial fishing boats and data in government's monthly statistical reports. We developed two GAM models: one included temporal variables (month and hauling time) and spatial variables (longitude and latitude), and another included just two variables, month and the number of fishing boats. Our results suggest that temporal factors explained more of the variability in catch than spatial factors. Furthermore, month explained the majority of variation in catch. Change in spatial distribution of fleet had a temporal component as the boats fished within a relatively small area within the same month, but the area varied among months. The number of boats fishing in each month also explained a large proportion of the variation in catch. Engine power had no effect on catch. The pseudo-coefficients (PCf) of the two GAMs were 0.13 and 0.29 respectively, indicating the both had good fits. The model yielded estimates that were very similar to those in the governmental reports between January to September, with relative estimate errors (REE) of <18%. However, the yields in October and November were significantly underestimated, with REEs of 36% and 27%, respectively.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41506162)the National Special Research Fund for Non-Profit Sector(Agriculture)(No.201303050)
文摘In the present study,we investigated a shift in the spatial distribution of wintering anchovy(Engraulis japonicus)and its relationship with water temperature,using data collected by bottom trawl surveys and remote sensing in the central and southern Yellow Sea,during 2000–2015.Our results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of wintering anchovy varied between years,but there was no consistent pattern in the direction of change(north or south).Wintering anchovy did not move northward with increasing water temperature.However,the latitudinal distribution of wintering anchovy correlated well with 10°C and 11°C isotherms.The results of both a one-step and a two-step generalized additive model indicated that water temperature was associated with both presence and biomass of wintering anchovy.This paper is the fi rst to systematically examine the relationship between anchovy distribution and water temperature using a variety of techniques.All the fi ndings confi rm the impact of water temperature on wintering anchovy distribution,which has important implications for the continued management of the anchovy resource and the enhancement of marine fi shery resources in the Yellow Sea,especially as the climate changes.However water temperature only partly explains the species distribution of anchovy,and stock characteristics also aff ect fi shery distribution.Therefore,other factors should be considered in future research.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2014CB954204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701099,31770765)
文摘Soil acidification is a major global issue of sustainable development for ecosystems. The increasing soil acidity induced by excessive nitrogen （N） fertilization in farmlands has profoundly impacted the soil carbon dynamics. However, the way in which changes in soil pH regulating the soil carbon dynamics in a deep soil profile is still not well elucidated. In this study, through a 12-year field N fertilization experiment with three N fertilizer treatments （0, 120, and 240 kg N/（hm-2·a）） in a dryland agroecosystem of China, we explored the soil pH changes over a soil profile up to a depth of 200 cm and determined the responses of soil organic carbon （SOC） and soil inorganic carbon （SIC） to the changed soil pH. Using a generalized additive model, we identified the soil depth intervals with the most powerful statistical relationships between changes in soil pH and soil carbon dynamics. Hierarchical responses of SOC and SIC dynamics to soil acidification were found. The results indicate that the changes in soil pH explained the SOC dynamics well by using a non-linear relationship at the soil depth of 0-80 cm （P=0.006）, whereas the changes in soil pH were significantly linearly correlated with SIC dynamics at the 100-180 cm soil depth （P=0.015）. After a long-term N fertilization in the experimental field, the soil pH value decreased in all three N fertilizer treatments. Furthermore, the declines in soil pH in the deep soil layer （100-200 cm） were significantly greater （P=0.035） than those in the upper soil layer （0-80 cm）. These results indicate that soil acidification in the upper soil layer can transfer excess protons to the deep soil layer, and subsequently, the structural heterogeneous responses of SOC and SIC to soil acidification were identified because of different buffer capacities for the SOC and SIC. To better estimate the effects of soil acidification on soil carbon dynamics, we suggest that future investigations for soil acidification should be extended to a deeper soil depth, e.g., 200 cm.
基金The Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean under contract No.201305030the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41930535。
文摘In recent years,Konosirus punctatus has accounted for a large portion in catch composition and become important economic species in the South Yellow Sea.However,the distribution of K.punctatus early life stages is still poorly understood.In this study,generalized additive models with Tweedie distribution were used to analyze the relationships between K.punctatus ichthyoplankton and environmental factors(longitude and latitude,sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface salinity(SSS)and depth),and predict distribution K.punctatus spawning ground and nursing ground,based on samplings collected in 6 months during 2014–2017.The results showed that K.punctatus’spawning ground were mainly distributed in central and north study area(from 33.0°N to 37.0°N).By comparison,the nursing ground shifted southward,which were approximately located along central and south coast of study area(from 31.7°N to 35.5°N).The optimal models identified that suitable SST,SSS and depth for eggs were 19–26℃,25–30 and 9–23 m,respectively.The suitable SSS for larvae were 29–31.The K.punctatus spawning habit might have changed in the past decades,which was a response to increasing SST and fishing pressure.That needs to be proved in further study.The study provides references of conservation and exploitation for K.punctatus.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2011CB409805)the National Special Research Fund for Non-Profit Sector(Agriculture)(No.200903005)the Taishan Scholar Program of Shandong Province
文摘We investigated the spatio-temporal and environmental factors that affect the distribution and abundance of wintering anchovy and quantifi es the infl uences of these factors. Generalized additive models(GAMs) were developed to examine the variation in species distribution and abundance with a set of spatiotemporal and oceanographic factors, using data collected by bottom trawl surveys and remote sensing in the central and southern Yellow Sea during 2000–2011. The fi nal model accounted for 28.21% and 41.03% of the variance in anchovy distribution and abundance, respectively. The results of a two-step GAM showed that hour, longitude, latitude, temperature gradient(TGR), and chlorophyll a(Chl- a) concentration best explained the anchovy distribution(presence/absence) and that a model including year, longitude, latitude, depth, sea surface temperature(SST), and TGR best described anchovy abundance(given presence). Longitude and latitude were the most important factors affecting both distribution and abundance, but the area of high abundance tended to be east and south of the area where anchovy were most likely to be present. Hour had a signifi cant effect on distribution, but year was more important for anchovy abundance, indicating that the anchovy catch ratio varied across the day but abundance had an apparent interannual variation. With respect to environmental factors, TGR and Chl- a concentration had effects on distribution, while depth, SST, and TGR affected abundance. Changes in SST between two successive years or between any year and the 2000–2011 mean were not associated with changes in anchovy distribution or abundance. This fi nding indicated that short- and long-term water temperature changes during 2000–2011 were not of suffi cient magnitude to give rise to variation in wintering anchovy distribution or abundance in the study area. The results of this study have important implications for fi sheries management.
基金The authors would like to extend their appreciation to the General Directorate of Turkish Coal Enterprises(TKI˙)for the data sets.
文摘Determining scale and variable effects have critical importance in developing an energy resource policy.This study aims to explore the relationships in heterogeneous lignite sites using different scale models,spatial weighting as well as error-based pair-wise identification.From a statistical learning framework,the relationships among the quality variables such as geochemical variables and the contributions of the coordinates to quality measures have been exhibited by generalized additive models.In this way,the critical roles of spatial weights provided by the coordinates have been specified at a global scale.The experimental studies reveal that incorporating the geological weighting in the models as the additional information improves both accuracy and transparency.Because relationships among lignite quality variables and sampling locations are spatially non-stationary,the local structure and interdependencies among the variables were analyzed by geographically weighting regression.The local analyses including spatial patterns of bandwidths,search domains as well as residual-based areal dependencies provided not only the critical zones but also availability of pair-wise model alternatives by calibrating a model at each point for location-specific parameter learning.The results completely show that the weighting models applied at different scales can take spatial heterogeneity into consideration and these abilities provide some meta-data and specific information using in sustainable energy planning.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41941014, 41676173)the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China (No. IRASCC_(2)020-2022-No.01-01-02E)supported by China Arctic and Antarctic Administration。
文摘Despite millions of seafarers and passengers staying on ships each year, few studies have been conducted on the indoor air quality inside ship hulls. In this study, we investigated the levels and size distribution of indoor particulate matter during two cruises of the research vessel “Xuelong” from Shanghai to Antarctica. The results showed that the particle size less than 2.5 μm(PM_(2.5)), and particle size less than 10 μm(PM_(10)) concentrations in different rooms of the ship widely varied. We observed high particulate matter(PM) levels in some of the rooms. The mass concentration distribution was dominated by 1–4 μm particles, which may have been caused by the hygroscopic growth of fine particles. The dominant factors influencing PM concentrations were indoor temperature, relative humidity, and human activity. We quantified contributions of these factors to the levels of indoor particles using a generalized additive model. In clean rooms, the levels of indoor particles were controlled by temperature and relative humidity, whereas in polluted rooms, the levels of indoor particles were mainly influenced by temperature and human activity, which implied that controlling temperature and human activity would efficiently reduce the levels of indoor particles.
文摘Climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities,such as over-exploitation of groundwater,are exerting unavoidable stress on groundwater resources.This study investigated the spatio-temporal variation of depth to groundwater level(DGWL)and the impacts of climatic(precipitation,maximum temperature,and minimum temperature)and anthropogenic(gross district product(GDP),population,and net irrigated area(NIA))variables on DGWL during 1994-2020.The study considered DGWL in 113 observation wells and piezometers located in arid western plains(Barmer and Jodhpur districts)and semi-arid eastern plains(Jaipur,Ajmer,Dausa,and Tonk districts)of Rajasthan State,India.Statistical methods were employed to examine the annual and seasonal patterns of DGWL,and the generalized additive model(GAM)was used to determine the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic variables on DGWL.During 1994-2020,except for Barmer District,where the mean annual DGWL was almost constant(around 26.50 m),all other districts exhibited increase in DGWL,with Ajmer District experiencing the most increase.The results also revealed that 36 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant annual increasing trend in DGWL and 34 observation wells and piezometers exhibited a statistically significant decreasing trend in DGWL.Similarly,32 observation wells and piezometers showed an statistically significant increasing trend and 37 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in winter;33 observation wells and piezometers indicated a statistically significant increasing trend and 34 had a statistically significant decreasing trend in post-monsoon;35 observation wells and piezometers exhibited a statistically significant increasing trend and 32 observation wells and piezometers showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in pre-monsoon;and 36 observation wells and piezometers reflected a statistically significant increasing trend and 30 observation wells and piezometers reflected a statistically significant decreasing trend in monsoon.Interestingly,most of the observation wells and piezometers with increasing trends of DGWL were located in Dausa and Jaipur districts.Furthermore,the GAM analysis revealed that climatic variables,such as precipitation,significantly affected DGWL in Barmer District,and DGWL in all other districts was influenced by anthropogenic variables,including GDP,NIA,and population.As a result,stringent regulations should be implemented to curb excessive groundwater extraction,manage agricultural water demand,initiate proactive aquifer recharge programs,and strengthen sustainable management in these water-scarce regions.
基金funded by the Bavarian Ministry for Food,Agriculture and Forestry (Grant No.F053)support by the Open Access Publication Funds/transformative agreements of the Gottingen University
文摘In Central Europe,anthropogenic coniferous monocultures have been subject to conversion to more diverse mixed forests since the 1990s,however,they are still abundant across many forest landscapes.Artificial and natural tree regeneration both play a key role during conversion by determining the species composition and structure of the future forests.Many abiotic and biotic factors can potentially influence the regeneration process and its specific combinations or interactions may be different among tree species and its developmental stages.Here,we aimed to identify and quantify the effect of the most important drivers on the density of the most abundant regenerating tree species(i.e.,Norway spruce and European beech),as well as on species and structural diversity of the tree regeneration.We studied tree regeneration in four former monospecific coniferous stand types(i.e.,Norway spruce,Scots pine,European larch,and Douglas fir)in Southwest Germany that have been under conversion to mixed forests since the 1990s.We sampled tree regeneration in four growth height classes together with a variety of potentially influencing factors on 108 sampling plots and applied multivariate analyses.We identified light availability in the understorey,stand structural attributes,browsing pressure,and diaspore source abundance as the most important factors for the density and diversity of tree regeneration.Particularly,we revealed speciesspecific differences in drivers of regeneration density.While spruce profited from increasing light availability and decreasing stand basal area,beech benefited either from a minor reduction or more strikingly from an increase in overstorey density.Increasing diaspore source abundance positively and a high browsing pressure negatively affected both species equally.Our results suggest that humus and topsoil properties were modified during conversion,probably due to changes in tree species composition and silvicultural activities.The species and structural diversity of the tree regeneration benefitted from increasing light availability,decreasing stand basal area,and a low to moderate browsing pressure.We conclude that forest managers may carefully equilibrate among the regulation of overstorey cover,stand basal area,and browsing pressure to fulfil the objectives of forest conversion,i.e.,establishing and safeguarding a diverse tree regeneration to promote the development of mature mixed forests in the future.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China ("863" Program) (Grant No.2007AA12Z216,2007AA120502)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40701134)
文摘Most rainfall-induced landslide forecasting models focus on the relation between landslides and rainfall,which is one of the dynamic factors,and seldom consider the stacitc factors,such as geological and geograpical factors.Landslide susceptibility,however,is determinded by both static and dynamic factors.This article proposes a static and dynamic factors-coupled forecasting model(SDFCFM) of regional rainfall-induced landslides,which quantitatively considers both the static and dynamic factors that affect landslides.The generalized additive model(GAM) is applied to coupling both factors to get the landslide susceptibility.In the case study,SDFCFM is applied to forecast the landslide occurrences in Shenzhen during a rainfall process in 2008.Compared with the rainfall logistic regression model,the resulting landslide susceptibility map illustrates that SDFCFM can reduce the forecast redundancy and improve the hit ratio.It is both applicable and practical.The application of SDFCFM in landslide warning and prevention system will improve its efficiency and also cut down the cost of human and matreial resources.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51377060)
文摘This paper aims to optimize total energy costs in an operational model of a novel energy hub(EH) in a residential area. The optimization problem is set up based on daily load demand(such as electricity, heat, and cooling) and time-of-use(TOU) energy prices. The extended EH model considers the involvement of solar photovoltaic(PV) generation, solar heat exchanger(SHE), and a battery energy storage system(BESS). A mathematical model is constructed with the objective of optimizing total energy cost during the day, including some constraints such as input-output energy balance of the EH, electricity price,capacity limitation of the system, and charge/discharge power of BESS. Four operational cases based on different EH structures are compared to assess the effect of solar energy applications and BESS on the operational efficiency. The results show that the proposed model predicts significant changes to the characteristics of electricity and gas power bought from utilities, leading to reduced total energy cost compared to other cases. They also indicate that the model is appropriate for the characteristics of residential loads.
文摘Objective To assess the association between shortterm ambient air pollution exposure and arterial stiffness and whether obesity modifies these associations.Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted based on Fangshan family cohort in Beijing.The 24 hours average air pollutant levels on the day cohort participants took baseline survey were calculated1asshort-term air pollution.A generalized additive model(GAM)with Gaussian links was used to estimate changes in typical carotid artery intima-media thickness(CIMT),brachialankle pulse wave velocity(BAPWV),pulse pressure(PP)and ankle-branchial index(ABI)after short-term exposure to each air pollution(PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2),CO).The cross-product terms of each air pollution,body mass index(BMI),and waist-to-hip ratio were included in the GAM model to test the interaction.Further,they conducted a stratified analysis to test their effects on the relationship between short-term exposure to each air pollution and the arterial stiffness indicators.Results A total of 4211 individuals were included in the analysis.Individuals'age was(58.9±8.7)years,of whom 2268(53.9%)were female.Several covariates,including sociodemographic factors,lifestyle behaviors,and history of drugs,were included in the analysis.The results of the GAM analysis showed that an increase in PM_(2.5)(β=2.912×10^(-4),95%CI:1.424×10^(-4)-4.400×10^(-4),P<0.001),C0(β=0.027,95%CI:0.011-0.043,P<0.001),S0_(2)(β=2.070×10-3,95%CI:7.060×10^(-4)-3.430×10^(-3),P=0.003),and NO(β=3.650×10^(-4),95%CI:2.340×10^(-5)-7.060×10^(-4),P=0.036)were associated with an increase in CIMT,while an increase in PMio(β=0.018,95%Cl:0.002-0.033,P=0.028)was associated with an increase in PP in the study population.Besides,the waist-to-hip ratio had an effect-modification on the correlation of short-term exposure of PM2.s(interaction P=0.015),NO_(2)(interaction P=0.008),and CO(interaction P=0.044)with CIMT,and the correlation between short-term exposure of PM_(2.5)(interaction P=0.002),NO_(2)(interaction P=0.010),CO(interaction P=0.029),PM_(10)(interaction P<0.001)with PP.The significant association between CIMT,PP,and air pollution concentrations was more visible in people with lower waist-to-hip ratios.Conclusion Short-term ambient air pollution exposure is associated with arterial stiffness indicators,and there is an effect modification of waist-tohip ratio on these associations,and lower waist-to-hip ratios may enhance the association between air pollution exposure and indicators.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （40228001, 40021101 and 90211016） and Peking University ＂985＂ and ＂211＂ projects.
文摘North-east （NE） China covers considerable climatic gradients and all major forests types of NE Asia. in the present study, 10 major forest types across the forest region of NE China were sampled to Investigate forest distribution in relation to climate. Canonical correspondence analysis （CCA） revealed that growing season precipitation and energy availability were primary climatic factors for the overall forest pattern of NE China, accounting for 66% of the explanatory power of CCA. Conversely, annual precipitation and winter coldness had minor effects. Generalized additive models revealed that tree species responded to climatic gradients differently and showed three types of response curve： （i） monotonous decline; （ii） monotonous Increase; and （iii） a unimodai pattern. Furthermore, tree species showed remarkable differences in limiting climatic factors for their distribution. The power of climate in explaining species distribution declined significantly with decreasing species dominance, suggesting that the distribution of dominant species was primarily controlled by climate, whereas that of subordinate species was more affected by competition from other species.
基金supported by the Project entitled“Indo-Danish Collaboration for Data-driven Control and Optimization for a Highly Efficient Distribution Grid (ID-EDGe)”funded by Department of Science and Technology (DST),India (No.DST-1390-EED)。
文摘The dynamic pricing environment offers flexibility to the consumers to reschedule their switching appliances.Though the dynamic pricing environment results in several benefits to the utilities and consumers,it also poses some challenges.The crowding among residential customers is one of such challenges.The scheduling of loads at low-cost intervals causes crowding among residential customers,which leads to a fall in voltage of the distribution system below its prescribed limits.In order to prevent crowding phenomena,this paper proposes a priority-based demand response program for local energy communities.In the program,past contributions made by residential houses and demand are considered as essential parameters while calculating the priority factor.The non-linear programming(NLP)model proposed in this study seeks to reschedule loads at low-cost intervals to alleviate crowding phenomena.Since the NLP model does not guarantee global optima due to its non-convex nature,a second-order cone programming model is proposed,which captures power flow characteristics and guarantees global optimum.The proposed formulation is solved using General Algebraic Modeling System(GAMS)software and is tested on a 12.66 kV IEEE 33-bus distribution system,which demonstrates its applicability and efficacy.
