Background Cervical cancer is the only cancer that can be eliminated worldwide.Tracking the latest burden of cervical cancer is critical toward the targets set by World Health Organization(WHO)to eliminate cervical ca...Background Cervical cancer is the only cancer that can be eliminated worldwide.Tracking the latest burden of cervical cancer is critical toward the targets set by World Health Organization(WHO)to eliminate cervical cancer as a major public health problem.Methods All data were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory(GLOBOCAN)2022.Age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and mortality rates(ASMR)of cervical cancer were compared and linked to Human Development Index(HDI)between populations.The estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)were used to characterize the temporal trend in ASIR/ASMR,and demographic estimates were projected up to 2050.Results Globally,an estimated 662,044 cases(ASIR:14.12/100,000)and 348,709 deaths(ASMR:7.08/100,000)from cervical cancer occurred in 2022,corresponding to the fourth cause of cancer morbidity and mortality in women worldwide.Specifically,42%of cases and 39%of deaths occurred in China(23%and 16%)and India(19%and 23%).Both ASIR and ASMR of cervical cancer decreased with HDI,and similar decreasing links were observed for both early-onset(0–39 years)and late-onset(≥40 years)cervical cancer.Both ASIR and ASMR of overall cervical cancer showed decreasing trends during 2003–2012(EAPC:0.04%and-1.03%);however,upward trends were observed for early-onset cervical cancer(EAPC:1.16%and 0.57%).If national rates in 2022 remain stable,the estimated cases and deaths from cervical cancer are projected to increase by 56.8%and 80.7%up to 2050.Moreover,the projected increase of early-onset cervical cancer is mainly observed in transitioning countries,while decreased burden is expected in transitioned countries.Conclusions Cervical cancer remains a common cause of cancer death in many countries,especially in transitioning countries.Unless scaling-up preventive interventions,human papillomavirus(HPV)vaccination and cervical cancer screening,as well as systematic cooperation within government,civil societies,and private enterprises,the global burden of cervical cancer would be expected to increase in the future.展开更多
The diurnal temperature range(DTR)serves as a vital indicator reflecting both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.This study investigates the historical and projected multitemporal DTR variati...The diurnal temperature range(DTR)serves as a vital indicator reflecting both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.This study investigates the historical and projected multitemporal DTR variations over the Tibetan Plateau.It assesses 23 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)using CN05.1 observational data as validation,evaluating their ability to simulate DTR over the Tibetan Plateau.Then,the evolution of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau under different shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios for the near,middle,and long term of future projection are analyzed using 11 selected robustly performing models.Key findings reveal:(1)Among the models examined,BCC-CSM2-MR,EC-Earth3,EC-Earth3-CC,EC-Earth3-Veg,EC-Earth3-Veg-LR,FGOALS-g3,FIO-ESM-2-0,GFDL-ESM4,MPI-ESM1-2-HR,MPI-ESM1-2-LR,and INM-CM5-0 exhibit superior integrated simulation capability for capturing the spatiotemporal variability of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau.(2)Projection indicates a slightly increasing trend in DTR on the Tibetan Plateau in the SSP1-2.6 scenario,and decreasing trends in the SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SPP5-8.5 scenarios.In certain areas,such as the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau,western hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau,southern Kunlun,and the Qaidam basins,the changes in DTR are relatively large.(3)Notably,the warming rate of maximum temperature under SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SPP5-8.5 is slower compared to that of minimum temperature,and it emerges as the primary contributor to the projected decrease in DTR over the Tibetan Plateau in the future.展开更多
With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions,especially in the Tibetan Plateau,global warming is undoubtedly occurring.In this study,we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model perfor...With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions,especially in the Tibetan Plateau,global warming is undoubtedly occurring.In this study,we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model performance regarding surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2014,reported spatiotemporal variability in surface air temperature in the future under four scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5),and further quantified the timing of warming levels(1.5,2,and 3℃)in the region.The results show that the multimodel ensemble means depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of surface air temperature for the past decades well,although with differences across individual models.The projected surface air temperature,by 2099,would warm by 1.9,3.2,5.2,and 6.3℃relative to the reference period(1981–2010),with increasing rates of 0.11,0.31,0.53,and 0.70℃/decade under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015–2099,respectively.Compared with the preindustrial periods(1850–1900),the mean annual surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau has hit the 1.5℃threshold and will break 2℃in the next decade,but there is still a chance to limit the temperature below 3℃in this century.Our study provides a new understanding of climate warming in high mountain areas and implies the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality.展开更多
Natural gas is one of the key energy resources for Turkey due to fact that 32% of annual primary energy supply and 45% of annual electricity production is obtained from natural gas with also common usage of residentia...Natural gas is one of the key energy resources for Turkey due to fact that 32% of annual primary energy supply and 45% of annual electricity production is obtained from natural gas with also common usage of residential and industrial zones. In this study, the supply security of natural gas was taken into consideration with strategic criteria of energy policy with the SWOT （strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats） analysis and the future projection for Turkey. It has been concluded on geopolitics criteria, domestic production and research for resources must be stimulated as high as possible and participation to abroad resources must be implemented.展开更多
The East Asian monsoon transitional zone(MTZ)is a northeast-southwest oriented belt between the wet monsoon areas and the northwestern dry areas of China with a fragile ecology and high climate sensitivity.The climate...The East Asian monsoon transitional zone(MTZ)is a northeast-southwest oriented belt between the wet monsoon areas and the northwestern dry areas of China with a fragile ecology and high climate sensitivity.The climate in the MTZ is characterized by strong instability and large variability,resulting in frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events.A number of studies have focused on the dry-wet characteristics from different perspectives,taking into account the increasing problems of water scarcity and ecological risks.This study reviews the multi-scale variations,underlying mechanisms and future projections of dry-wet conditions over the MTZ under global warming.The main findings over the last few decades are summarized as follows:1)the interannual variability of summer precipitation is under the combined impacts of oceanic forcings and internal atmospheric teleconnection patterns at mid-high latitudes;2)an interdecadal decrease in summer precipitation amount in the MTZ was observed in the late 1990s due to a Silk-Road pattern-like wave train triggered by the combined impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-like SST warming over the North Atlantic and positive-to-negative phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO);3)a pronounced drying trend has been observed during 1951-2005,which is mainly attributed to human activities and internal atmospheric variability,including increased aerosols,land-use changes,thermal forcing over the Tibetan Plateau,and the phase shift of the PDO;and 4)the summer precipitation in the MTZ is projected to increase under global warming with considerable uncertainties mainly due to internal atmospheric variability,including the Arctic Oscillation and the Polar-Eurasian pattern.This review attempts to provide a clear and systematic picture on the distinctive changing features of dry-wet conditions over the MTZ,and to attract the interest of the scientific community in climate change over this unique“transition”domain.展开更多
Using a reanalysis dataset and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) models, this study investigated the southern and northern modes of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and their respective relations...Using a reanalysis dataset and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) models, this study investigated the southern and northern modes of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and their respective relationships with the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The EAWM northern mode(EAWM_N) exhibited a consistent and strong connection with the mid-and high-latitude atmospheric circulation during 1979–2013, resembling the Eurasian teleconnection pattern. The positive phase of this pattern enhanced the sea-land pressure gradient across the mid-latitude East Asia and strengthened northerly winds flowing from high latitudes to South China, resulting in a strong EAWM_N. The relationship between the EAWM_N and ENSO shifted from insignificant to significant in the late 1990s, coinciding with a westward transition of the Walker circulation. In contrast, the EAWM southern mode(EAWM_S) was closely associated with an anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea and exhibited a stable, robust inverse correlation with ENSO.Projections from 12 CMIP6 models indicated that the unstable negative correlation of EAWM_N with ENSO would intensify, while the robust linkage between EAWM_S and ENSO was expected to persist under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Additionally, increased future variability in the Ni?o 3.4 index, driven by external forcing, corresponded well to enhanced variability of EAWM_S. These findings underscore the necessity for further research into the distinct behaviors of the northern and southern EAWM modes under the background of ongoing climate warming.展开更多
Based on multiresource high-resolution in situ and satellite merged observations along with model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX),this study first investigated historic...Based on multiresource high-resolution in situ and satellite merged observations along with model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX),this study first investigated historical changes in extreme temperature and precipitation during the period of 1979-2018 in areas along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,and then projected the future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation under the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.This paper is expected to enhance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability in the extreme temperature and precipitation along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,and to provide scientific basis to advance the Sichuan-Tibet Railway construction and operation.The results show that temperatures in the Sichuan-Tibet region display a noticeable warming trend in the past 40 years,and the increase of minimum temperature is significantly higher than that of maximum temperature in the northwest of the region.Significant increase of precipitation is found mainly over the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau.Except for Lhasa and its surrounding areas,precipitation over other areas along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway shows no significant change in the past 40 years,as indicated in five datasets;however,precipitation along the railway has shown a remarkable decrease in the past 20 years in the TRMM satellite dataset.The warm days and nights have clearly increased by 6 and 5 day decade1-for 1979-2019,while cold days and nights have markedly decreased by about 6.6 and 3.6 day decade-1,respectively.In the past 20 years,the areas with increased precipitation from very wet days and extremely wet days are mainly distributed to the north of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,while in the areas along the railway itself,the very wet days and extremely wet days are decreasing.Under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5,the temperature in the Sichuan-Tibet region will increase significantly,and the frequency of extreme high(low)temperature events in the late 21 st century(2070-2099)will greatly increase(decrease)by about 50%-80%(10%)compared with occurrences in the late 20 th century(1970-1999).Meanwhile,the frequency of very wet days and extremely wet days in the Sichuan-Tibet region will increase by about 2%-19% and 2%-5%,respectively,and the areas along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway will be affected by more extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation events.展开更多
This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2...This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best performance.The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend.Under various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes.This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after 2040.Furthermore,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods.However,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP scenarios.During the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations.In contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.However,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state.展开更多
Background Future distribution of dengue risk is usually predicted based on predicted climate changes using general circulation models(GCMs).However,it is difficult to validate the GCM results and assess the uncertain...Background Future distribution of dengue risk is usually predicted based on predicted climate changes using general circulation models(GCMs).However,it is difficult to validate the GCM results and assess the uncertainty of the predictions.The observed changes in climate may be very different from the GCM results.We aim to utilize trends in observed climate dynamics to predict future risks of Aedes albopictus in China.Methods We collected Ae.albopictus surveillance data and observed climate records from 80 meteorological stations from 1970 to 2021.We analyzed the trends in climate change in China and made predictions on future climate for the years 2050 and 2080 based on trend analyses.We analyzed the relationship between climatic variables and the prevalence of Ae.albopictus in different months/seasons.We built a classification tree model(based on the average of 999 runs of classification and regression tree analyses)to predict the monthly/seasonal Ae.albopictus distribution based on the average climate from 1970 to 2000 and assessed the contributions of different climatic variables to the Ae.albopictus distribution.Using these models,we projected the future distributions of Ae.albopictus for 2050 and 2080.Results The study included Ae.albopictus surveillance from 259 sites in China found that winter to early spring(November–February)temperatures were strongly correlated with Ae.albopictus prevalence(prediction accuracy ranges 93.0–98.8%)—the higher the temperature the higher the prevalence,while precipitation in summer(June–September)was important predictor for Ae.albopictus prevalence.The machine learning tree models predicted the current prevalence of Ae.albopictus with high levels of agreement(accuracy>90%and Kappa agreement>80%for all 12 months).Overall,winter temperature contributed the most to Ae.albopictus distribution,followed by summer precipitation.An increase in temperature was observed from 1970 to 2021 in most places in China,and annual change rates varied substantially from-0.22℃/year to 0.58℃/year among sites,with the largest increase in temperature occurring from February to April(an annual increase of 1.4–4.7℃ in monthly mean,0.6–4.0℃ in monthly minimum,and 1.3–4.3℃ in monthly maximum temperature)and the smallest in November and December.Temperature increases were lower in the tropics/subtropics(1.5–2.3℃ from February–April)compared to the high-latitude areas(2.6–4.6℃ from February–April).The projected temperatures in 2050 and 2080 by this study were approximately 1–1.5℃ higher than those projected by GCMs.The estimated current Ae.albopictus risk distribution had a northern boundary of north-central China and the southern edge of northeastern China,with a risk period of June–September.The projected future Ae.albopictus risks in 2050 and 2080 cover nearly all of China,with an expanded risk period of April–October.The current at-risk population was estimated to be 960 million and the future at-risk population was projected to be 1.2 billion.Conclusions The magnitude of climate change in China is likely to surpass GCM predictions.Future dengue risks will expand to cover nearly all of China if current climate trends continue.展开更多
Central Asia,located in the innermost part of the Eurasian continent,has experienced“warming and humidification”in recent decades,with potentially important implications for tree growth in alpine forests,which are c...Central Asia,located in the innermost part of the Eurasian continent,has experienced“warming and humidification”in recent decades,with potentially important implications for tree growth in alpine forests,which are critical for regional water reserves.We use nested principal component analysis to assess tree radial growth patterns and reveal significant positive trends since the 20th century across Central Asian alpine forests(0.076 per decade during 1900-2021,p=0.003).Regional hydroclimatic variations affect the greening of these alpine forests,especially with extreme droughts being the most damaging.Growth acceleration is driven by low-latitude warming,which enhances regional temperatures and precipitation.The warming ocean centers alter atmospheric circulation patterns,leading to more moisture being transported to the Central Asian alpine forests,thereby increasing regional precipitation and promoting tree growth.Our model projections indicate that growth rates will continue to rise in the future.However,unprecedented warming may eventually lead to growth deterioration if negative effects,such as insufficient precipitation,occur due to breakdown signs of positive feedback mechanisms,such as moisture transport driven by low-latitude warming.Our study highlights the beneficial,but not unlimited,influences of climate warming on tree growth in Central Asian alpine forests,with implications for the sustainability of water resources.However,as urban and agricultural demands escalate,a holistic,long-term perspective is recommended to mitigate the adverse effects of temperature increases.展开更多
Water resources play a fundamental role in maintaining ecosystem well-being and supporting socio-economic progress.Nevertheless,the water sustainability confronts unprecedented challenges exacerbated by climate change...Water resources play a fundamental role in maintaining ecosystem well-being and supporting socio-economic progress.Nevertheless,the water sustainability confronts unprecedented challenges exacerbated by climate change and human interventions.This research establishes a comprehensive evaluation framework aligned with the United Nations'Sustainability Development Goals(SDGs)to assess water sustainability across 30 Chinese provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions(excluding Xizang,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan).By integrating natural,economic,and social factors,this research elucidated the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of water sustainability from 2010 to 2020,and projected future trajectories under diverse socio-economic pathways(SSPs)for 2030 and 2050.The main findings include:1)China's water sustainability demonstrated gradual improvement during 2010–2020,yet baseline levels remain suboptimal for achieving SDG targets in 2030.Projections suggest significant enhancements by 2050,particularly under the SSP1-2.6 sustainability-oriented scenario.2)Persistent regional disparities are evident,with acute sustainability deficits observed in densely populated,intensively cultivated northern and the arid northwestern territories.These disparities are projected to attenuate by 2050.3)Natural ecological processes emerge as the dominant contributor to water sustainability,with projected growth potential.Economic processes constitute a secondary driver,while social dimensions exhibit more limited influence,both displaying heterogeneous developmental trajectories.4)SDG 6.4(Water Use Efficiency)demonstrates the highest implementation efficiency,whereas SDG 6.3(Water Quality)and SDG 15.1(Terrestrial Ecosystem Conservation)require urgent policy interventions.This study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed SDGs-aligned framework in diagnosing China's water sustainability challenges,providing actionable insights for regional policy prioritization.The interdisciplinary methodology bridges scientific analysis and governance strategies,enabling robust decision-making under complex future uncertainties.展开更多
The future changes in the relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)and the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated by using the high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5)experi...The future changes in the relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)and the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated by using the high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5)experiments from 26 coupled models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Six models,selected based on their best performance in simulating the upper-and lower-level pathways related to the SASM-EASM teleconnection in the historical run,can capture the positive relationship between the SASM and the rainfall over northern China.In the future scenario,the upper-level teleconnection wave pattern connecting the SASM and the EASM exhibits a significant weakening trend,due to the rainfall anomalies decrease over the northern Indian Peninsula in the future.At the lower level,the western North Pacific anticyclone is projected to strengthen in the warming climate.The positive(negative)rainfall anomalies associated with positive(negative)SASM rainfall anomalies are anticipated to extend southward from northern China to the Yangtze-Huai River valley,the Korea Peninsula,and southern Japan.The connection in the lower-level pathway may be strengthened in the future.展开更多
Climate change projections over the Mediterranean region have been elaborated by using the outputs of ten ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations with an horizontal resolution of 25 km under the SRES A1B emission scena...Climate change projections over the Mediterranean region have been elaborated by using the outputs of ten ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations with an horizontal resolution of 25 km under the SRES A1B emission scenario. The analysis concerns some surface atmospheric variables： mean sea level pressure, temperature, precipitation and wind speed. At first, model validations have been performed by comparing model results with E-OBS and ERA-Interim data in reproducing the last decades over some Italian sub-areas and the Alpine region. In spite of the considerable spread in the models＇ performances to represent the reference climate, a multi-model reconstruction has been computed and some seasonal climate change projections have been elaborated. About the mean climate changes, the more significant signals expected by 2050 are a maximum warming （about 2 ~C） and maximum drying （about 20%） in the southern Europe in summer. Moreover, the results indicate an increasing risk for some severe weather conditions： more days of extremely high temperature in summer over the whole area, a greater occurrence of flooding and storms over coasts during spring and autumn seasons and a more serious wet-snow event over Alpine region in winter. No significant signals of wind changes have been detected.展开更多
The Hope Project has made a difference to the lives of many chldren in China..This magazine has also received a large number of inquiries from overseas readers.and,to answer their questions,we bring more informa-tion ...The Hope Project has made a difference to the lives of many chldren in China..This magazine has also received a large number of inquiries from overseas readers.and,to answer their questions,we bring more informa-tion on the Hope Project in the following outline.Readers can contact the Hope Project directly,and China I oday will also be happy to answer reader inquiries.展开更多
The summer mean water vapor transport （WVT） and cross-equatorial flow （CEF） over the Asian- Australian monsoon region simulated by 22 coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation models （AOGCMs） from the Worl...The summer mean water vapor transport （WVT） and cross-equatorial flow （CEF） over the Asian- Australian monsoon region simulated by 22 coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation models （AOGCMs） from the World Climate Research Programme＇s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） were evaluated. Based on climatology of the twentieth-century simulations, most of models have a reason- ably realistic representation of summer monsoon WVT characterized by southeast water vapor conveyor belt over the South Indian Ocean and southwest belt from the Arabian Sea to the East Asian. The correlation coefficients between NCEP reanalysis and simulations of BCC-CSMI-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, FGOALS-s2, MIROC4h and MPI-ESM-LR are up to 0.8. The simulated CEF depicted by the meridional wind along the equator includes the Somali jet and eastern CEF in low atmosphere and the reverse circulation in upper atmosphere, which were generally consistent with NCEP reanalysis. Multi-model ensemble means （MME） can reproduce more reasonable climatological features in spatial distribution both of WVT and CEF. Ten models with more reasonable WVT simulations were selected for future projection studies, including BCC- CSMI-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, FGOALS-s2, FIO-ESM, GFDL-ESM2G, MRIOCS, MPI-ESM-LR and NorESM-1M. Analysis based on the future projection experiments in RCP （Representative Concentra- tion Pathway） 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 show that the global warming forced by different RCP scenarios will results in enhanced WVT over the Indian area and the west Pacific and weaken WVT in the low latitudes of tropical Indian Ocean.展开更多
The middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020,with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive weeks.How the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembli...The middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020,with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive weeks.How the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembling that which occurred over the MLYRB in summer 2020(hereafter 2020PHR-like event)would change under global warming is investigated.An index that reflects maximum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive five-week period in summer(Rx35day)is introduced.This accumulated precipitation index in summer 2020 is 60%stronger than the climatology,and a statistical analysis further shows that the 2020 event is a 1-in-70-year event.The model projection results derived from the 50-member ensemble of CanESM2 and the multimodel ensemble(MME)of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event will dramatically increase under global warming.Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff test,one-third of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have reasonable performance in reproducing the 2020PHR-like event in their historical simulations are selected for the future projection study.The CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME results show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event under the present-day climate will be double under lower-emission scenarios(CMIP5 RCP4.5,CMIP6 SSP1-2.6,and SSP2-4.5)and 3-5 times greater under higher-emission scenarios(3.0 times for CMIP5 RCP8.5,2.9 times for CMIP6 SSP3-7.0,and 4.8 times for CMIP6 SSP5-8.5).The inter-model spread of the probability change is small,lending confidence to the projection results.The results provide a scientific reference for mitigation of and adaptation to future climate change.展开更多
Dependency of the human on the energy is ever-increasing today and the energy policies are reaching undeniable and un-ignorable dimensions steering the political events as well. Therefore, access to the energy and/or ...Dependency of the human on the energy is ever-increasing today and the energy policies are reaching undeniable and un-ignorable dimensions steering the political events as well. Therefore, access to the energy and/or energy resources is becoming the highest priority for the countries. In this study, the criteria that have to be kept in view while creating the energy policies are explained first of all. Then the geopolitics, redundancy and diversity are described as the strategic criteria and furthermore, the availability, energy resources geography, and the technological, economical and environmental criteria are examined as the operative criteria and thereafter the issues such as installation period, utilization period, reliability, repair-maintenance and public validation are handled as the tactical criteria. The nuclear power plants are examined and evaluated according to the criteria set forth above while creating the energy policies. Under the light of this evaluation, the situation is examined and explicated in terms of the energy expansion of Turkey. Thus the place of the nuclear energy in the energy expansion of Turkey is clarified and emphasized.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(grant number:2021YFC2500400)National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers:82172894,82073028,82204121)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(grant number:2023M742617).
文摘Background Cervical cancer is the only cancer that can be eliminated worldwide.Tracking the latest burden of cervical cancer is critical toward the targets set by World Health Organization(WHO)to eliminate cervical cancer as a major public health problem.Methods All data were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory(GLOBOCAN)2022.Age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and mortality rates(ASMR)of cervical cancer were compared and linked to Human Development Index(HDI)between populations.The estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)were used to characterize the temporal trend in ASIR/ASMR,and demographic estimates were projected up to 2050.Results Globally,an estimated 662,044 cases(ASIR:14.12/100,000)and 348,709 deaths(ASMR:7.08/100,000)from cervical cancer occurred in 2022,corresponding to the fourth cause of cancer morbidity and mortality in women worldwide.Specifically,42%of cases and 39%of deaths occurred in China(23%and 16%)and India(19%and 23%).Both ASIR and ASMR of cervical cancer decreased with HDI,and similar decreasing links were observed for both early-onset(0–39 years)and late-onset(≥40 years)cervical cancer.Both ASIR and ASMR of overall cervical cancer showed decreasing trends during 2003–2012(EAPC:0.04%and-1.03%);however,upward trends were observed for early-onset cervical cancer(EAPC:1.16%and 0.57%).If national rates in 2022 remain stable,the estimated cases and deaths from cervical cancer are projected to increase by 56.8%and 80.7%up to 2050.Moreover,the projected increase of early-onset cervical cancer is mainly observed in transitioning countries,while decreased burden is expected in transitioned countries.Conclusions Cervical cancer remains a common cause of cancer death in many countries,especially in transitioning countries.Unless scaling-up preventive interventions,human papillomavirus(HPV)vaccination and cervical cancer screening,as well as systematic cooperation within government,civil societies,and private enterprises,the global burden of cervical cancer would be expected to increase in the future.
基金supported by The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(Grant No.2019QZKK0102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41975135)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan,China(Grant No.2022NSFSC1092)funded by the China Scholarship Council。
文摘The diurnal temperature range(DTR)serves as a vital indicator reflecting both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.This study investigates the historical and projected multitemporal DTR variations over the Tibetan Plateau.It assesses 23 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)using CN05.1 observational data as validation,evaluating their ability to simulate DTR over the Tibetan Plateau.Then,the evolution of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau under different shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios for the near,middle,and long term of future projection are analyzed using 11 selected robustly performing models.Key findings reveal:(1)Among the models examined,BCC-CSM2-MR,EC-Earth3,EC-Earth3-CC,EC-Earth3-Veg,EC-Earth3-Veg-LR,FGOALS-g3,FIO-ESM-2-0,GFDL-ESM4,MPI-ESM1-2-HR,MPI-ESM1-2-LR,and INM-CM5-0 exhibit superior integrated simulation capability for capturing the spatiotemporal variability of DTR over the Tibetan Plateau.(2)Projection indicates a slightly increasing trend in DTR on the Tibetan Plateau in the SSP1-2.6 scenario,and decreasing trends in the SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SPP5-8.5 scenarios.In certain areas,such as the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau,western hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau,southern Kunlun,and the Qaidam basins,the changes in DTR are relatively large.(3)Notably,the warming rate of maximum temperature under SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SPP5-8.5 is slower compared to that of minimum temperature,and it emerges as the primary contributor to the projected decrease in DTR over the Tibetan Plateau in the future.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21A2006)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFC0507401)+3 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100102)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)(2019QZKK0208)the Start-up Funds for Introduced Talent at Lanzhou University(561120217)the China Scholarship Council(201904910442,201906990037)。
文摘With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions,especially in the Tibetan Plateau,global warming is undoubtedly occurring.In this study,we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model performance regarding surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2014,reported spatiotemporal variability in surface air temperature in the future under four scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5),and further quantified the timing of warming levels(1.5,2,and 3℃)in the region.The results show that the multimodel ensemble means depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of surface air temperature for the past decades well,although with differences across individual models.The projected surface air temperature,by 2099,would warm by 1.9,3.2,5.2,and 6.3℃relative to the reference period(1981–2010),with increasing rates of 0.11,0.31,0.53,and 0.70℃/decade under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015–2099,respectively.Compared with the preindustrial periods(1850–1900),the mean annual surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau has hit the 1.5℃threshold and will break 2℃in the next decade,but there is still a chance to limit the temperature below 3℃in this century.Our study provides a new understanding of climate warming in high mountain areas and implies the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality.
文摘Natural gas is one of the key energy resources for Turkey due to fact that 32% of annual primary energy supply and 45% of annual electricity production is obtained from natural gas with also common usage of residential and industrial zones. In this study, the supply security of natural gas was taken into consideration with strategic criteria of energy policy with the SWOT （strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats） analysis and the future projection for Turkey. It has been concluded on geopolitics criteria, domestic production and research for resources must be stimulated as high as possible and participation to abroad resources must be implemented.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42230605 and 42205021).
文摘The East Asian monsoon transitional zone(MTZ)is a northeast-southwest oriented belt between the wet monsoon areas and the northwestern dry areas of China with a fragile ecology and high climate sensitivity.The climate in the MTZ is characterized by strong instability and large variability,resulting in frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events.A number of studies have focused on the dry-wet characteristics from different perspectives,taking into account the increasing problems of water scarcity and ecological risks.This study reviews the multi-scale variations,underlying mechanisms and future projections of dry-wet conditions over the MTZ under global warming.The main findings over the last few decades are summarized as follows:1)the interannual variability of summer precipitation is under the combined impacts of oceanic forcings and internal atmospheric teleconnection patterns at mid-high latitudes;2)an interdecadal decrease in summer precipitation amount in the MTZ was observed in the late 1990s due to a Silk-Road pattern-like wave train triggered by the combined impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-like SST warming over the North Atlantic and positive-to-negative phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO);3)a pronounced drying trend has been observed during 1951-2005,which is mainly attributed to human activities and internal atmospheric variability,including increased aerosols,land-use changes,thermal forcing over the Tibetan Plateau,and the phase shift of the PDO;and 4)the summer precipitation in the MTZ is projected to increase under global warming with considerable uncertainties mainly due to internal atmospheric variability,including the Arctic Oscillation and the Polar-Eurasian pattern.This review attempts to provide a clear and systematic picture on the distinctive changing features of dry-wet conditions over the MTZ,and to attract the interest of the scientific community in climate change over this unique“transition”domain.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004)。
文摘Using a reanalysis dataset and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) models, this study investigated the southern and northern modes of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and their respective relationships with the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The EAWM northern mode(EAWM_N) exhibited a consistent and strong connection with the mid-and high-latitude atmospheric circulation during 1979–2013, resembling the Eurasian teleconnection pattern. The positive phase of this pattern enhanced the sea-land pressure gradient across the mid-latitude East Asia and strengthened northerly winds flowing from high latitudes to South China, resulting in a strong EAWM_N. The relationship between the EAWM_N and ENSO shifted from insignificant to significant in the late 1990s, coinciding with a westward transition of the Walker circulation. In contrast, the EAWM southern mode(EAWM_S) was closely associated with an anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea and exhibited a stable, robust inverse correlation with ENSO.Projections from 12 CMIP6 models indicated that the unstable negative correlation of EAWM_N with ENSO would intensify, while the robust linkage between EAWM_S and ENSO was expected to persist under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Additionally, increased future variability in the Ni?o 3.4 index, driven by external forcing, corresponded well to enhanced variability of EAWM_S. These findings underscore the necessity for further research into the distinct behaviors of the northern and southern EAWM modes under the background of ongoing climate warming.
基金Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20020201)Breakthrough Project of Strategic Priority Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(KFZD-SW-426)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41675094 and 41975115)Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province(2021JQ-166)Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of the Loess Plateau Soil Erosion and Water Process and Control,Ministry of Water Resources of China(HTGY202002)。
文摘Based on multiresource high-resolution in situ and satellite merged observations along with model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX),this study first investigated historical changes in extreme temperature and precipitation during the period of 1979-2018 in areas along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,and then projected the future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation under the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.This paper is expected to enhance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability in the extreme temperature and precipitation along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,and to provide scientific basis to advance the Sichuan-Tibet Railway construction and operation.The results show that temperatures in the Sichuan-Tibet region display a noticeable warming trend in the past 40 years,and the increase of minimum temperature is significantly higher than that of maximum temperature in the northwest of the region.Significant increase of precipitation is found mainly over the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau.Except for Lhasa and its surrounding areas,precipitation over other areas along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway shows no significant change in the past 40 years,as indicated in five datasets;however,precipitation along the railway has shown a remarkable decrease in the past 20 years in the TRMM satellite dataset.The warm days and nights have clearly increased by 6 and 5 day decade1-for 1979-2019,while cold days and nights have markedly decreased by about 6.6 and 3.6 day decade-1,respectively.In the past 20 years,the areas with increased precipitation from very wet days and extremely wet days are mainly distributed to the north of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway,while in the areas along the railway itself,the very wet days and extremely wet days are decreasing.Under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5,the temperature in the Sichuan-Tibet region will increase significantly,and the frequency of extreme high(low)temperature events in the late 21 st century(2070-2099)will greatly increase(decrease)by about 50%-80%(10%)compared with occurrences in the late 20 th century(1970-1999).Meanwhile,the frequency of very wet days and extremely wet days in the Sichuan-Tibet region will increase by about 2%-19% and 2%-5%,respectively,and the areas along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway will be affected by more extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation events.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42275024 and 42105040the Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2022YFE0203500+3 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation under contract Nos 2023B1515020009 and 2024B1515040024the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS under contract No.2020340the Special Fund of South China Sea Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.SCSIO2023QY01the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangzhou under contract No.2024A04J6275.
文摘This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best performance.The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend.Under various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes.This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after 2040.Furthermore,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods.However,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP scenarios.During the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations.In contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.However,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state.
文摘Background Future distribution of dengue risk is usually predicted based on predicted climate changes using general circulation models(GCMs).However,it is difficult to validate the GCM results and assess the uncertainty of the predictions.The observed changes in climate may be very different from the GCM results.We aim to utilize trends in observed climate dynamics to predict future risks of Aedes albopictus in China.Methods We collected Ae.albopictus surveillance data and observed climate records from 80 meteorological stations from 1970 to 2021.We analyzed the trends in climate change in China and made predictions on future climate for the years 2050 and 2080 based on trend analyses.We analyzed the relationship between climatic variables and the prevalence of Ae.albopictus in different months/seasons.We built a classification tree model(based on the average of 999 runs of classification and regression tree analyses)to predict the monthly/seasonal Ae.albopictus distribution based on the average climate from 1970 to 2000 and assessed the contributions of different climatic variables to the Ae.albopictus distribution.Using these models,we projected the future distributions of Ae.albopictus for 2050 and 2080.Results The study included Ae.albopictus surveillance from 259 sites in China found that winter to early spring(November–February)temperatures were strongly correlated with Ae.albopictus prevalence(prediction accuracy ranges 93.0–98.8%)—the higher the temperature the higher the prevalence,while precipitation in summer(June–September)was important predictor for Ae.albopictus prevalence.The machine learning tree models predicted the current prevalence of Ae.albopictus with high levels of agreement(accuracy>90%and Kappa agreement>80%for all 12 months).Overall,winter temperature contributed the most to Ae.albopictus distribution,followed by summer precipitation.An increase in temperature was observed from 1970 to 2021 in most places in China,and annual change rates varied substantially from-0.22℃/year to 0.58℃/year among sites,with the largest increase in temperature occurring from February to April(an annual increase of 1.4–4.7℃ in monthly mean,0.6–4.0℃ in monthly minimum,and 1.3–4.3℃ in monthly maximum temperature)and the smallest in November and December.Temperature increases were lower in the tropics/subtropics(1.5–2.3℃ from February–April)compared to the high-latitude areas(2.6–4.6℃ from February–April).The projected temperatures in 2050 and 2080 by this study were approximately 1–1.5℃ higher than those projected by GCMs.The estimated current Ae.albopictus risk distribution had a northern boundary of north-central China and the southern edge of northeastern China,with a risk period of June–September.The projected future Ae.albopictus risks in 2050 and 2080 cover nearly all of China,with an expanded risk period of April–October.The current at-risk population was estimated to be 960 million and the future at-risk population was projected to be 1.2 billion.Conclusions The magnitude of climate change in China is likely to surpass GCM predictions.Future dengue risks will expand to cover nearly all of China if current climate trends continue.
基金supported by Excellent Research Group Program for Tibetan Plateau Earth System(continuation grant NSFC project No.41988101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U1803341 and 32061123008)+1 种基金the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFA0606401)the National Youth Talent Support Program.
文摘Central Asia,located in the innermost part of the Eurasian continent,has experienced“warming and humidification”in recent decades,with potentially important implications for tree growth in alpine forests,which are critical for regional water reserves.We use nested principal component analysis to assess tree radial growth patterns and reveal significant positive trends since the 20th century across Central Asian alpine forests(0.076 per decade during 1900-2021,p=0.003).Regional hydroclimatic variations affect the greening of these alpine forests,especially with extreme droughts being the most damaging.Growth acceleration is driven by low-latitude warming,which enhances regional temperatures and precipitation.The warming ocean centers alter atmospheric circulation patterns,leading to more moisture being transported to the Central Asian alpine forests,thereby increasing regional precipitation and promoting tree growth.Our model projections indicate that growth rates will continue to rise in the future.However,unprecedented warming may eventually lead to growth deterioration if negative effects,such as insufficient precipitation,occur due to breakdown signs of positive feedback mechanisms,such as moisture transport driven by low-latitude warming.Our study highlights the beneficial,but not unlimited,influences of climate warming on tree growth in Central Asian alpine forests,with implications for the sustainability of water resources.However,as urban and agricultural demands escalate,a holistic,long-term perspective is recommended to mitigate the adverse effects of temperature increases.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42271311)Open Project of State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Sciences(No.SKLEC-KF202204)Discipline Co-construction Project on 2024 Guangdong Philosophy and Social Science Foundation(No.GD24XGL026)。
文摘Water resources play a fundamental role in maintaining ecosystem well-being and supporting socio-economic progress.Nevertheless,the water sustainability confronts unprecedented challenges exacerbated by climate change and human interventions.This research establishes a comprehensive evaluation framework aligned with the United Nations'Sustainability Development Goals(SDGs)to assess water sustainability across 30 Chinese provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions(excluding Xizang,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan).By integrating natural,economic,and social factors,this research elucidated the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of water sustainability from 2010 to 2020,and projected future trajectories under diverse socio-economic pathways(SSPs)for 2030 and 2050.The main findings include:1)China's water sustainability demonstrated gradual improvement during 2010–2020,yet baseline levels remain suboptimal for achieving SDG targets in 2030.Projections suggest significant enhancements by 2050,particularly under the SSP1-2.6 sustainability-oriented scenario.2)Persistent regional disparities are evident,with acute sustainability deficits observed in densely populated,intensively cultivated northern and the arid northwestern territories.These disparities are projected to attenuate by 2050.3)Natural ecological processes emerge as the dominant contributor to water sustainability,with projected growth potential.Economic processes constitute a secondary driver,while social dimensions exhibit more limited influence,both displaying heterogeneous developmental trajectories.4)SDG 6.4(Water Use Efficiency)demonstrates the highest implementation efficiency,whereas SDG 6.3(Water Quality)and SDG 15.1(Terrestrial Ecosystem Conservation)require urgent policy interventions.This study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed SDGs-aligned framework in diagnosing China's water sustainability challenges,providing actionable insights for regional policy prioritization.The interdisciplinary methodology bridges scientific analysis and governance strategies,enabling robust decision-making under complex future uncertainties.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2020B0301030004)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975074)+2 种基金Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515010908)Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies(2020B1212060025)Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(311021001)。
文摘The future changes in the relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)and the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated by using the high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5)experiments from 26 coupled models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Six models,selected based on their best performance in simulating the upper-and lower-level pathways related to the SASM-EASM teleconnection in the historical run,can capture the positive relationship between the SASM and the rainfall over northern China.In the future scenario,the upper-level teleconnection wave pattern connecting the SASM and the EASM exhibits a significant weakening trend,due to the rainfall anomalies decrease over the northern Indian Peninsula in the future.At the lower level,the western North Pacific anticyclone is projected to strengthen in the warming climate.The positive(negative)rainfall anomalies associated with positive(negative)SASM rainfall anomalies are anticipated to extend southward from northern China to the Yangtze-Huai River valley,the Korea Peninsula,and southern Japan.The connection in the lower-level pathway may be strengthened in the future.
文摘Climate change projections over the Mediterranean region have been elaborated by using the outputs of ten ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations with an horizontal resolution of 25 km under the SRES A1B emission scenario. The analysis concerns some surface atmospheric variables： mean sea level pressure, temperature, precipitation and wind speed. At first, model validations have been performed by comparing model results with E-OBS and ERA-Interim data in reproducing the last decades over some Italian sub-areas and the Alpine region. In spite of the considerable spread in the models＇ performances to represent the reference climate, a multi-model reconstruction has been computed and some seasonal climate change projections have been elaborated. About the mean climate changes, the more significant signals expected by 2050 are a maximum warming （about 2 ~C） and maximum drying （about 20%） in the southern Europe in summer. Moreover, the results indicate an increasing risk for some severe weather conditions： more days of extremely high temperature in summer over the whole area, a greater occurrence of flooding and storms over coasts during spring and autumn seasons and a more serious wet-snow event over Alpine region in winter. No significant signals of wind changes have been detected.
文摘The Hope Project has made a difference to the lives of many chldren in China..This magazine has also received a large number of inquiries from overseas readers.and,to answer their questions,we bring more informa-tion on the Hope Project in the following outline.Readers can contact the Hope Project directly,and China I oday will also be happy to answer reader inquiries.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)under Grant 2010CB950500 and 2010CB950304the Scientific Research Foundation of the First Institute of Oceanography,State Oceanic Administration(Grant No.GY02-2001G26)the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.41206026
文摘The summer mean water vapor transport （WVT） and cross-equatorial flow （CEF） over the Asian- Australian monsoon region simulated by 22 coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation models （AOGCMs） from the World Climate Research Programme＇s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） were evaluated. Based on climatology of the twentieth-century simulations, most of models have a reason- ably realistic representation of summer monsoon WVT characterized by southeast water vapor conveyor belt over the South Indian Ocean and southwest belt from the Arabian Sea to the East Asian. The correlation coefficients between NCEP reanalysis and simulations of BCC-CSMI-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, FGOALS-s2, MIROC4h and MPI-ESM-LR are up to 0.8. The simulated CEF depicted by the meridional wind along the equator includes the Somali jet and eastern CEF in low atmosphere and the reverse circulation in upper atmosphere, which were generally consistent with NCEP reanalysis. Multi-model ensemble means （MME） can reproduce more reasonable climatological features in spatial distribution both of WVT and CEF. Ten models with more reasonable WVT simulations were selected for future projection studies, including BCC- CSMI-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, FGOALS-s2, FIO-ESM, GFDL-ESM2G, MRIOCS, MPI-ESM-LR and NorESM-1M. Analysis based on the future projection experiments in RCP （Representative Concentra- tion Pathway） 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 show that the global warming forced by different RCP scenarios will results in enhanced WVT over the Indian area and the west Pacific and weaken WVT in the low latitudes of tropical Indian Ocean.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42088101)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2020YFA0608901 and 2019YFC1510004)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu(BK20190781),the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42005020)the General Program of Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(19KJB170019).
文摘The middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020,with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive weeks.How the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembling that which occurred over the MLYRB in summer 2020(hereafter 2020PHR-like event)would change under global warming is investigated.An index that reflects maximum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive five-week period in summer(Rx35day)is introduced.This accumulated precipitation index in summer 2020 is 60%stronger than the climatology,and a statistical analysis further shows that the 2020 event is a 1-in-70-year event.The model projection results derived from the 50-member ensemble of CanESM2 and the multimodel ensemble(MME)of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event will dramatically increase under global warming.Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff test,one-third of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have reasonable performance in reproducing the 2020PHR-like event in their historical simulations are selected for the future projection study.The CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME results show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event under the present-day climate will be double under lower-emission scenarios(CMIP5 RCP4.5,CMIP6 SSP1-2.6,and SSP2-4.5)and 3-5 times greater under higher-emission scenarios(3.0 times for CMIP5 RCP8.5,2.9 times for CMIP6 SSP3-7.0,and 4.8 times for CMIP6 SSP5-8.5).The inter-model spread of the probability change is small,lending confidence to the projection results.The results provide a scientific reference for mitigation of and adaptation to future climate change.
文摘Dependency of the human on the energy is ever-increasing today and the energy policies are reaching undeniable and un-ignorable dimensions steering the political events as well. Therefore, access to the energy and/or energy resources is becoming the highest priority for the countries. In this study, the criteria that have to be kept in view while creating the energy policies are explained first of all. Then the geopolitics, redundancy and diversity are described as the strategic criteria and furthermore, the availability, energy resources geography, and the technological, economical and environmental criteria are examined as the operative criteria and thereafter the issues such as installation period, utilization period, reliability, repair-maintenance and public validation are handled as the tactical criteria. The nuclear power plants are examined and evaluated according to the criteria set forth above while creating the energy policies. Under the light of this evaluation, the situation is examined and explicated in terms of the energy expansion of Turkey. Thus the place of the nuclear energy in the energy expansion of Turkey is clarified and emphasized.
