Ecosystem services(ES)are highly impacted by human-induced land-use change.Progressive urbanization and agricultural land abandonment in Western Europe necessitate assessments of future land-change impacts on ES to en...Ecosystem services(ES)are highly impacted by human-induced land-use change.Progressive urbanization and agricultural land abandonment in Western Europe necessitate assessments of future land-change impacts on ES to ensure sustainable service management.The present study aims at evaluating future demand and supply of three key services(flood protection,nearby recreation and biodiversity)in the mountainous region of Vorarlberg,Austria.We mapped the ES for the referenced time step 2016 and two scenarios for 2050,assuming the continuation of current land-change trends and pressure on landscape development.Results for the referenced landscape in 2016 show the highest ES supply for intermediate levels,while ES supply was low in the lowlands and valley bottoms and in high-elevation areas.We found a high positive correlation of ES with the distribution of forested areas.In contrast,service demand was highest in lowelevation areas and decreased with increasing elevation.This indicates that densely settled and intensively used agricultural areas currently suffer from ES undersupply.The projected future development of land use showed an increase in both supply and demand of the selected ES.The overall service supply increased more than the respective demand due to some reforestation of open land.As forests were found to be important synergistic areas for overall service provision,we expect decreasing demand on related services.Locally,demand was found to exceed the supply of ES,especially in the densely populated Rhine valley-requiring further policy interventions.Such ES-related information may contribute to regional policy making and ensure the long-term provision of ESs for future generations.展开更多
As important freshwater resources in alpine basins,glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming,thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development.However,...As important freshwater resources in alpine basins,glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming,thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development.However,impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite limited.This study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios(RCP2.6(RCP,Representative Concentration Pathway),RCP4.5,and RCP8.5)by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial,agricultural,service,and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030 s,2050 s,2070 s,and 2090 s.The results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6%and 74.5%under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090 s relative to the baseline period(1980-2010),respectively.Compared to the RCP2.6 scenario,the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10×10^(6) and 537.20×10^(6) CNY in the 2050 s and 2090 s,respectively,and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00×10^(6) CNY.We also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses,respectively.The economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier meltwater.These findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions,industrial transformation,and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future.展开更多
[ Objective] The research aimed to study climate suitability of S. superba in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario and response of its regional distribution on climate change. [ Metbed] Based on cli...[ Objective] The research aimed to study climate suitability of S. superba in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario and response of its regional distribution on climate change. [ Metbed] Based on climate- vegetation related Kira model, Holdridge model and ecological suitability theory, climate suitability model of S. superba was established by using fuzzy mathematics. Based on the daily meteorological data at 246 stations of the subtropical zone from 1960 to 2005, by using spatial interpolation method, suitability of S. superba on temperature, precipitation, po- tential evapotranspiration rate was analyzed. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Sce- nario （SRES）, future scenario simulation result was used. Under IPCC A2 scenario, climate suitability of S. superba and its change were studied in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario. Climate suitability of S. superba in future was classified. [ Result] Under future climate scenario, climate suitability of S. superba was stronger in most of areas in Hunan, north Guangdong, northeast Guangxi and east coast of Zhe- jiang. It was suitable for growth of S. superba in central Guangxi, east Guizhou, central Jiangxi and Fuzhou. Growth suitability of S. superba was still lower in the north of Gongshan - Weixi - Lijiang - Yuanjiang - Huize - Leibo - Emei - Neijiang - Nanchong - Bazhong - Zhongxiang - zaoyang - Xinyang -Lu＇an -Chuzhou -Gaoyou -Taitong. Climate suitability in west Yunnan and Sichuan had big change. Future climate suitability change of S. superba was greatly affected by temperature and potential evapotranspiration rate. [ Conclusion] Future climate suitability decreased toward west and north from Hunan. The climate suitability had a decline trend as time went by under future climate scenario. The research provided theoretical basis for studying geographic distribution of the vegetation population.展开更多
The changing energy-chemistry nexus is discussed in this perspective paper about the future of sustainable energy and chemical production to identify the priorities and open issues on which focus research and developm...The changing energy-chemistry nexus is discussed in this perspective paper about the future of sustainable energy and chemical production to identify the priorities and open issues on which focus research and development. Topics discussed regard （i） the new sustainable energy scenario, （ii） the role of energy storage （from smart grids to chemical storage of energy）, （iii） the outlooks and role of solar （bio）refineries and solar fuels, （iv） how to integrate hio- and solar-refineries to move to new economy, （v） the role of methanol at the crossover of new energy-chemistry nexus, （vi） the role of chemistry in this new scenario, （vii） the role of nanomaterials for a sustainable energy, （viii） the use of nanocarbons to design advanced energy conversion and storage devices, and （ix） possibilities and routes to exploit solar energy and methane （shale gas）. The contribution provides a glimpse of the emerging directions and routes with some elements about their possible role in the future scenario, but does not orovide a detailed analysis of the state of the art in these directions展开更多
This paper analyses the climate projections over the Koshi river basin obtained by applying the delta method to eight CMIP5 GCMs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The GCMs were selected to cover the full envelope o...This paper analyses the climate projections over the Koshi river basin obtained by applying the delta method to eight CMIP5 GCMs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The GCMs were selected to cover the full envelope of possible future ranges from dry and cold to wet and warm projections. The selected coarse resolution GCM outputs were statistically downscaled to the resolution of the historical climate datasets. The scenarios were developed based on the anomaly between the present reference period (1961-1990) and the future period (2021-2050) to generate transient climate change scenarios for the eight GCMs. The analyses were carried out for the whole basin and three physiographic zones: the trans-Himalaya, high-Himalaya and middle mountains, and southern plains. Future projections show a 14% increase in rainfall during the summer monsoon season by 2050. The increase in rainfall is higher over the mountains than the plains. The meagre amount of rainfall in the winter season is projected to further decrease over both the mountain and southern plains areas of the basin for both RCPs. The basin is likely to experience warming throughout the year, although the increase in winter is likely to be higher. The highest increase in temperature is projected to be over the high Himalayan and middle mountain area, with lower increases over the trans-Himalayan and southern plains areas.展开更多
This paper shows prospective methodology as a tool to generate strategic knowledge for designing sustainable futures. The strategic prospective is a social science discipline dedicated to explore the future. Based on ...This paper shows prospective methodology as a tool to generate strategic knowledge for designing sustainable futures. The strategic prospective is a social science discipline dedicated to explore the future. Based on qualitative methods with participative experts and stakeholders, the strategic prospective allows designing different future scenarios and planning the transformation of a current situation into a desired future. To design sustainable futures, this paper proposes a four-stage methodology： understanding the context; strategy visualization; design of alternative scenarios and definition of desired future; and planning its construction. This methodology makes evident the possibility of seeking alternative scenarios for a sustainable future in different scopes, particularly, in two prospective applications： biodiversity conservation and water treatment. The outcomes of the application have allowed proposing strategies and policies for the management of environmental goods, such as environmental services and water reuse, with a long-time outlook based on a collective desired future.展开更多
Flood regulation service(FRS)stands as one of the key benefits that people get from the ecosystem.Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the relationship between supply and demand of FRS would incr...Flood regulation service(FRS)stands as one of the key benefits that people get from the ecosystem.Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the relationship between supply and demand of FRS would increasingly affect regional flood risk and sustainable development.However,there was currently a lack of systematic study on the future supply-demand relationship of FRS in the flood-vulnerable area undergoing rapidly development in China.This study integrated the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)datasets and climate model data to quantify the supply-demand ratio(SDR)of FRS in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),China from 2020 to 2050.Trend analyses were conducted using linear regres-sion,Theil-Sen median estimation,and Hurst exponent analysis,while key drivers of SDR changes were identified and quantified through the Lindeman-Merenda-Gold(LMG)method between 2021 and 2050.Results show that the supply of FRS in the YRD was generally insufficient to meet the demand.The imbalanced subbasins covered 88.24%of the total study area,with 34.48%of this imbal-anced area concentrated in the Southeastern Basin in China.During 2021 and 2050,the imbalance of FRS supply-demand relationship would largely aggravate in the YRD,of which the aggravated area would account for 77.23%.Under different scenarios,the SDR for FRS would decrease significantly,with rates ranging from-5.45×10^(-4) to-2.06×10^(-4)(P<0.05).Especially,the decline rate of SDR in the YRD Basin(DeltaB)reached 2.92 times that the average of YRD.Human activities were the primary factors that exacerbated the imbalance in FRS supply-demand relationship,of which the relative contribution rate exceeds 75%.Particular attention should be direc-ted toward critical regions like the Southeast Basin in China(SEB)and DeltaB where substantial aggravation of supply-demand imbal-ances of FRS is projected.展开更多
In recent years,Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas.However,the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environm...In recent years,Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas.However,the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear.Under the current climate scenario,we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M.enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model with the occurrence data of this species.Furthermore,the potential distributions of M.enterolobii were projected under three future climate scenarios(BCC-CSM2-MR,CanESM5 and CNRM-CM6-1)for the periods 2050s and 2090s.Changes in the potential distribution were also predicted under different climate conditions.The results showed that highly suitable regions for M.enterolobii were concentrated in Africa,South America,Asia,and North America between latitudes 30°S to 30°N.Bio16(precipitation of the wettest quarter),bio10(mean temperature of the warmest quarter),and bio11(mean temperature of the coldest quarter)were the variables contributing most in predicting potential distributions of M.enterolobii.In addition,the potential suitable areas for M.enterolobii will shift toward higher latitudes under future climate scenarios.This study provides a theoretical basis for controlling and managing this nematode.展开更多
Optimizing the spatial pattern of carbon sequestration service is essential for advancing regional low-carbon development,accelerating the achievement of the"dual carbon"goals,and promoting the high-quality ...Optimizing the spatial pattern of carbon sequestration service is essential for advancing regional low-carbon development,accelerating the achievement of the"dual carbon"goals,and promoting the high-quality development of ecological environment.The carbon sequestration capacity within the mountain-desert-oasis system(MDOS),a unique landscape pattern,exhibits significant gradient characteristics,and its carbon sink potential can be substantially improved through multi-scale spatial optimization.This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff(InVEST)model to estimate carbon storage and sequestration(CSS)in the Gansu section of Heihe River Basin,China,a representative MDOS,based on land use/land cover(LULC)data from 1990 to 2020.The Patch-level Land Use Simulation(PLUS)model was coupled to simulate LULC and estimate carrying CSS under natural development(ND),ecological protection(EP),water constraint(WC),and economic development(ED)scenarios for 2035.Furthermore,the study constructed and optimized the CSS pattern on the basis of economic and ecological benefits,exploring the guiding significance of different scenarios for pattern optimization.The results showed that CSS spatial distribution is closely correlated with LULC pattern,and CSS is expected to improve in the future.CSS showed an overall increase across subsystems during 1990–2020,but varied across LULC types.CSS of construction land in all subsystems exhibited an increasing trend,while CSS of unused land showed a decreasing trend,with specific changes of 1.68×103 and 3.43×105 t,respectively.Regional CSS dynamics were mainly driven by conversions among unused land,cultivated land,and grassland.The CSS pattern of MDOS was divided into carbon sink functional region(CSFR),low carbon conservation region(LCCR),low carbon economic region(LCER),and economic development region(EDR).Water resources coordination served as the basis of pattern optimization,while the four dimensions—ecological carbon sink,low-carbon maintenance,agricultural carbon reduction and sink enhancement,and urban carbon emission reduction—framed the optimization framework.ND,EP,WC,and ED scenarios provided guidance as the basic reference,optimal benefit,"dual carbon"baseline,and upper development limit,respectively.Additionally,the detailed CSS sub-partitions of MDOS covered most potential scenarios of such ecosystems,demonstrating the applicability of these sub-partitions.These findings provide valuable references for enhancing CSS and hold important significance for low-carbon territorial spatial planning in the MDOS.展开更多
The roles of diurnal temperature in providing heat accumulation and chilling requirements for vegetation spring phenology differ.Although previous studies have established a stronger correlation between leaf onset and...The roles of diurnal temperature in providing heat accumulation and chilling requirements for vegetation spring phenology differ.Although previous studies have established a stronger correlation between leaf onset and diurnal temperature than between leaf onset and average temperature,current research on modeling spring phenology based on diurnal temperature indicators remains limited.In this study,we confirmed the start of the growing season(SOS)sensitivity to diurnal temperature and average temperature in boreal forest.The estimation of SOS was carried out by employing K-Nearest Neighbor Regression(KNR-TDN)model,Random Forest Regres-sion(RFR-TDN)model,eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGB-TDN)model and Light Gradient Boosting Machine model(LightGBM-TDN)driven by diurnal temperature indicators during 1982-2015,and the SOS was projected from 2015 to 2100 based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)climate scenario datasets.The sensitivity of boreal forest SOS to daytime temperature is greater than that to average temperature and nighttime temperature.The LightGBM-TDN model perform best across all vegetation types,exhibiting the lowest RMSE and bias compared to the KNR-TDN model,RFR-TDN model and XGB-TDN model.By incorporating diurn-al temperature indicators instead of relying only on average temperature indicators to simulate spring phenology,an improvement in the accuracy of the model is achieved.Furthermore,the preseason accumulated daytime temperature,daytime temperature and snow cover end date emerged as significant drivers of the SOS simulation in the study area.The simulation results based on LightGBM-TDN model exhibit a trend of advancing SOS followed by stabilization under future climate scenarios.This study underscores the potential of diurn-al temperature indicators as a viable alternative to average temperature indicators in driving spring phenology models,offering a prom-ising new method for simulating spring phenology.展开更多
Enhancing the spatio-temporal connectivity of dynamic landscapes is crucial for species to adapt to climate change.However,the spatio-temporal connectivity network approach considering climate change and species movem...Enhancing the spatio-temporal connectivity of dynamic landscapes is crucial for species to adapt to climate change.However,the spatio-temporal connectivity network approach considering climate change and species movement is often overlooked.Taking Tibetan wild ass on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau as an example,we simulated species distribution under current(2019)and future scenarios(2100),constructed spatio-temporal connectivity networks,and assessed the spatio-temporal connectivity.The results show that under the current,SSP2–4.5 and SSP3–7.0 scenarios,suitable habitats for the Tibetan wild ass account for 21.11%,21.34%,and 20.95%of the total area,respectively,with increased fragmentation projected by 2100.78.35%of the habitats which are predicted to be suitable under current conditions will remain suitable in the future,which can be regarded as stable climate refuges.With the increase in future emission intensity,the percentage of auxiliary connectivity corridors increases from 27.65%to 33.57%.This indicates that more patches will function as temporary refuges and the auxiliary connectivity corridors will gradually weaken the dominance of direct connectivity corridors.Under different SSP-RCP scenarios,the internal spatio-temporal connectivity is always higher than direct connectivity and auxiliary connectivity,accounting for 42%–43%.Compared with the spatio-temporal perspective,the purely spatial perspective overestimates network connectivity by about 28%considering all current and future patches,and underestimates network connectivity by 16%–21%when only considering all current or future patches.In this study,a new approach of spatio-temporal connectivity network is proposed to bridge climate refuges,which contributes to the long-term effectiveness of conservation networks for species’adaptation to climate change.展开更多
Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One w...Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downseale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross- validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downsealing to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 （HadCM3） simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 （RCP 4.5） scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5）. The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011- 35 relative to 1980-99.展开更多
The summer rainfall over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YRSR) has been estimated with a multi-linear regression model using principal atmospheric modes derived from a 500 hPa geopotential height...The summer rainfall over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YRSR) has been estimated with a multi-linear regression model using principal atmospheric modes derived from a 500 hPa geopotential height and a 700 hPa zonal vapor flux over the domain of East Asia and the West Pacific.The model was developed using data from 1958 92 and validated with an independent prediction from 1993 2008.The independent prediction was efficient in predicting the YRSR with a correlation coefficient of 0.72 and a relative root mean square error of 18%.The downscaling model was applied to two general circulation models (GCMs) of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) to project rainfall for present and future climate under B1 and A1B emission scenarios.The downscaled results pro-vided a closer representation of the observation compared to the raw models in the present climate.In addition,compared to the inconsistent prediction directly from dif-ferent GCMs,the downscaled results provided a consistent projection for this half-century,which indicated a clear increase in the YRSR.Under the B1 emission scenario,the rainfall could increase by an average of 11.9% until 2011 25 and 17.2% until 2036 50 from the current state;under the A1B emission scenario,rainfall could increase by an average of 15.5% until 2011 25 and 25.3% until 2036 50 from the current state.Moreover,the increased rate was faster in the following decade (2011 25) than the latter of this half-century (2036 50) under both emissions.展开更多
The authors analyze climate extremes indices (CEI) of rainfall over the largest basins of the Brazilian territory: Amazon (AMA), S?o Francisco (SF), Tocantins (TO) and Paraná (PAR) rivers. The CEI represent the f...The authors analyze climate extremes indices (CEI) of rainfall over the largest basins of the Brazilian territory: Amazon (AMA), S?o Francisco (SF), Tocantins (TO) and Paraná (PAR) rivers. The CEI represent the frequency of heavy precipitation events (R30mm and R95p) and short duration extreme rainfall (RX5day and RX1day). Droughts (CDDd) are identified based on two indicators: The longest dry period (CDD) and the annual cycle. The results demonstrate that CDDd, RX1day and RX5day occurred with more frequency and intensity in SF basin during El Ni?o events. CDDd was of greater magnitude in the TO basin during La Ni?a events, while an increase of RX1day occurred in El Ni?o. The strong El Ni?o events (1983 and 1997) caused more intense and frequent RX1day and R30mm over the PAR basin. Amazon droughts occurred in two out of the six El Ni?o events. Moreover, the relationship between the positive (negative) sea superficial temperatures anomalies in North (South) Tropical Atlantic and drought in AMA basin was corroborated. A gradual warming of SST was observed at the start of 2003 until it achieved a maximum in 2005 associated with the southwestern Amazon drought. The second highest anomaly of SST was in 2010 linked with drought that was more spatially extensive than the 2005 drought. The spatial distribution of annual trends showed a significant increase of CDD in south-eastern AMA, Upper SF, northern PAR and throughout the TO basins. R20mm, RX1day and RX5day tend to increase significantly in southwestern (northeast) PAR (AMA) and northwestern TO basins. Comparisons between CEI derived from daily precipitation data from Climate Prediction Center (CPCp) and of the ETA_HadCM3 model showed that the model overestimated RX1day, RX5day and CDD, in the four basins. Future scenarios show that dry periods will occur with greatest magnitude in all the basins until 2071-2099 time slice, while RX1day will be more intense in the TO and SF basins.展开更多
Estimating CO2 emission factor of the electricity system is a key aspect in the calculation of the baseline emissions for projects certified as CDM （Clean Development Mechanism）, which replace energy from the grid. ...Estimating CO2 emission factor of the electricity system is a key aspect in the calculation of the baseline emissions for projects certified as CDM （Clean Development Mechanism）, which replace energy from the grid. Currently, Uruguay is driving the expansion of the electricity system based on domestic renewable energies, in addition to replacing oil-based fuels for others with lower emission factors. This implies a substantial change of the generation park in the next decade and of the associated CO2 emissions. In this paper, a calculation methodology of the baseline emissions is adapted for its incorporation in the software SimSEE （Electric Energy Systems Simulator）, which is used for modeling the Uruguayan electric system, and therefore, allows modeling the current energy generator park and the future one. Using this tool, the CO2 emission factor＇s evolution is evaluated in the 2012-2020 period. The 2020 scenario is based on an optimal expansion of the electric system. The results indicate a strong reduction of the emission factor between 2012 and 2020, going from average values （for 100 simulations） around 0.60 tCO2/MWh to 0.15 tCO2/MWh. In this possible future scenario, CDM certification will probably not act as a strong incentive in Uruguay for the development of projects based on non-traditional renewable energies.展开更多
Background:Anopheles gambiae(An.gambiae)is considered the most effective malaria vector worldwide and is widely distributed in Africa.The purpose of this study is to determine the potential impact of climate change on...Background:Anopheles gambiae(An.gambiae)is considered the most effective malaria vector worldwide and is widely distributed in Africa.The purpose of this study is to determine the potential impact of climate change on An.gambiae and predict the present and future potential suitable habitat globally.Methods:In this study,environmental variables,global occurrence data of An.gambiae,and the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)were used to evaluate the contribution of environmental factors and predict the habitat suitability of An.gambiae under the current and future scenarios.Results:Among all environmental variables,isothermality(Bio3,34.5%)contributed the most to An.gambiae distribution.Under current climate conditions,the potential suitable areas for An.gambiae are mainly located near the equator(approximately 30°N-30°S),with a total area of 16.58 million km2,including central and northern South America,a fraction of areas near the equator of North America,central and southern Africa,some tropical regions of southern Asia,and small areas of Oceania.The areas of potential suitable habitats would be reduced to varying degrees in future climate scenarios.Conclusions:Potential suitable habitats for An.gambiae may not be limited to Africa.Necessary surveillance and preventive measures should be undertaken in high-risk regions,including those outside Africa,to monitor and control the spread of An.gambiae.展开更多
基金the HiFlow-CMA project conducted by alpS and WSL, funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund (ACRP 8th call)
文摘Ecosystem services(ES)are highly impacted by human-induced land-use change.Progressive urbanization and agricultural land abandonment in Western Europe necessitate assessments of future land-change impacts on ES to ensure sustainable service management.The present study aims at evaluating future demand and supply of three key services(flood protection,nearby recreation and biodiversity)in the mountainous region of Vorarlberg,Austria.We mapped the ES for the referenced time step 2016 and two scenarios for 2050,assuming the continuation of current land-change trends and pressure on landscape development.Results for the referenced landscape in 2016 show the highest ES supply for intermediate levels,while ES supply was low in the lowlands and valley bottoms and in high-elevation areas.We found a high positive correlation of ES with the distribution of forested areas.In contrast,service demand was highest in lowelevation areas and decreased with increasing elevation.This indicates that densely settled and intensively used agricultural areas currently suffer from ES undersupply.The projected future development of land use showed an increase in both supply and demand of the selected ES.The overall service supply increased more than the respective demand due to some reforestation of open land.As forests were found to be important synergistic areas for overall service provision,we expect decreasing demand on related services.Locally,demand was found to exceed the supply of ES,especially in the densely populated Rhine valley-requiring further policy interventions.Such ES-related information may contribute to regional policy making and ensure the long-term provision of ESs for future generations.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41690141)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFC1510500)。
文摘As important freshwater resources in alpine basins,glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming,thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development.However,impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite limited.This study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios(RCP2.6(RCP,Representative Concentration Pathway),RCP4.5,and RCP8.5)by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial,agricultural,service,and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030 s,2050 s,2070 s,and 2090 s.The results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6%and 74.5%under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090 s relative to the baseline period(1980-2010),respectively.Compared to the RCP2.6 scenario,the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10×10^(6) and 537.20×10^(6) CNY in the 2050 s and 2090 s,respectively,and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00×10^(6) CNY.We also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses,respectively.The economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier meltwater.These findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions,industrial transformation,and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future.
文摘[ Objective] The research aimed to study climate suitability of S. superba in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario and response of its regional distribution on climate change. [ Metbed] Based on climate- vegetation related Kira model, Holdridge model and ecological suitability theory, climate suitability model of S. superba was established by using fuzzy mathematics. Based on the daily meteorological data at 246 stations of the subtropical zone from 1960 to 2005, by using spatial interpolation method, suitability of S. superba on temperature, precipitation, po- tential evapotranspiration rate was analyzed. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Sce- nario （SRES）, future scenario simulation result was used. Under IPCC A2 scenario, climate suitability of S. superba and its change were studied in subtropical zone of China under future climate scenario. Climate suitability of S. superba in future was classified. [ Result] Under future climate scenario, climate suitability of S. superba was stronger in most of areas in Hunan, north Guangdong, northeast Guangxi and east coast of Zhe- jiang. It was suitable for growth of S. superba in central Guangxi, east Guizhou, central Jiangxi and Fuzhou. Growth suitability of S. superba was still lower in the north of Gongshan - Weixi - Lijiang - Yuanjiang - Huize - Leibo - Emei - Neijiang - Nanchong - Bazhong - Zhongxiang - zaoyang - Xinyang -Lu＇an -Chuzhou -Gaoyou -Taitong. Climate suitability in west Yunnan and Sichuan had big change. Future climate suitability change of S. superba was greatly affected by temperature and potential evapotranspiration rate. [ Conclusion] Future climate suitability decreased toward west and north from Hunan. The climate suitability had a decline trend as time went by under future climate scenario. The research provided theoretical basis for studying geographic distribution of the vegetation population.
基金the PRIN10-11 projects "Mechanisms of activation of CO2for the design of new materials for energy and resource efficiency" and "Innovative processes for the conversion of algal biomass for the production of jet fuel and green diesel" for the financial support
文摘The changing energy-chemistry nexus is discussed in this perspective paper about the future of sustainable energy and chemical production to identify the priorities and open issues on which focus research and development. Topics discussed regard （i） the new sustainable energy scenario, （ii） the role of energy storage （from smart grids to chemical storage of energy）, （iii） the outlooks and role of solar （bio）refineries and solar fuels, （iv） how to integrate hio- and solar-refineries to move to new economy, （v） the role of methanol at the crossover of new energy-chemistry nexus, （vi） the role of chemistry in this new scenario, （vii） the role of nanomaterials for a sustainable energy, （viii） the use of nanocarbons to design advanced energy conversion and storage devices, and （ix） possibilities and routes to exploit solar energy and methane （shale gas）. The contribution provides a glimpse of the emerging directions and routes with some elements about their possible role in the future scenario, but does not orovide a detailed analysis of the state of the art in these directions
文摘This paper analyses the climate projections over the Koshi river basin obtained by applying the delta method to eight CMIP5 GCMs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The GCMs were selected to cover the full envelope of possible future ranges from dry and cold to wet and warm projections. The selected coarse resolution GCM outputs were statistically downscaled to the resolution of the historical climate datasets. The scenarios were developed based on the anomaly between the present reference period (1961-1990) and the future period (2021-2050) to generate transient climate change scenarios for the eight GCMs. The analyses were carried out for the whole basin and three physiographic zones: the trans-Himalaya, high-Himalaya and middle mountains, and southern plains. Future projections show a 14% increase in rainfall during the summer monsoon season by 2050. The increase in rainfall is higher over the mountains than the plains. The meagre amount of rainfall in the winter season is projected to further decrease over both the mountain and southern plains areas of the basin for both RCPs. The basin is likely to experience warming throughout the year, although the increase in winter is likely to be higher. The highest increase in temperature is projected to be over the high Himalayan and middle mountain area, with lower increases over the trans-Himalayan and southern plains areas.
文摘This paper shows prospective methodology as a tool to generate strategic knowledge for designing sustainable futures. The strategic prospective is a social science discipline dedicated to explore the future. Based on qualitative methods with participative experts and stakeholders, the strategic prospective allows designing different future scenarios and planning the transformation of a current situation into a desired future. To design sustainable futures, this paper proposes a four-stage methodology： understanding the context; strategy visualization; design of alternative scenarios and definition of desired future; and planning its construction. This methodology makes evident the possibility of seeking alternative scenarios for a sustainable future in different scopes, particularly, in two prospective applications： biodiversity conservation and water treatment. The outcomes of the application have allowed proposing strategies and policies for the management of environmental goods, such as environmental services and water reuse, with a long-time outlook based on a collective desired future.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42101251)。
文摘Flood regulation service(FRS)stands as one of the key benefits that people get from the ecosystem.Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the relationship between supply and demand of FRS would increasingly affect regional flood risk and sustainable development.However,there was currently a lack of systematic study on the future supply-demand relationship of FRS in the flood-vulnerable area undergoing rapidly development in China.This study integrated the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)datasets and climate model data to quantify the supply-demand ratio(SDR)of FRS in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),China from 2020 to 2050.Trend analyses were conducted using linear regres-sion,Theil-Sen median estimation,and Hurst exponent analysis,while key drivers of SDR changes were identified and quantified through the Lindeman-Merenda-Gold(LMG)method between 2021 and 2050.Results show that the supply of FRS in the YRD was generally insufficient to meet the demand.The imbalanced subbasins covered 88.24%of the total study area,with 34.48%of this imbal-anced area concentrated in the Southeastern Basin in China.During 2021 and 2050,the imbalance of FRS supply-demand relationship would largely aggravate in the YRD,of which the aggravated area would account for 77.23%.Under different scenarios,the SDR for FRS would decrease significantly,with rates ranging from-5.45×10^(-4) to-2.06×10^(-4)(P<0.05).Especially,the decline rate of SDR in the YRD Basin(DeltaB)reached 2.92 times that the average of YRD.Human activities were the primary factors that exacerbated the imbalance in FRS supply-demand relationship,of which the relative contribution rate exceeds 75%.Particular attention should be direc-ted toward critical regions like the Southeast Basin in China(SEB)and DeltaB where substantial aggravation of supply-demand imbal-ances of FRS is projected.
基金supported by the Key R&D Project of Shaanxi Province,China(2020ZDLNY07-06)the Science and Technology Program of Shaanxi Academy of Sciences(2022k-11).
文摘In recent years,Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas.However,the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear.Under the current climate scenario,we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M.enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model with the occurrence data of this species.Furthermore,the potential distributions of M.enterolobii were projected under three future climate scenarios(BCC-CSM2-MR,CanESM5 and CNRM-CM6-1)for the periods 2050s and 2090s.Changes in the potential distribution were also predicted under different climate conditions.The results showed that highly suitable regions for M.enterolobii were concentrated in Africa,South America,Asia,and North America between latitudes 30°S to 30°N.Bio16(precipitation of the wettest quarter),bio10(mean temperature of the warmest quarter),and bio11(mean temperature of the coldest quarter)were the variables contributing most in predicting potential distributions of M.enterolobii.In addition,the potential suitable areas for M.enterolobii will shift toward higher latitudes under future climate scenarios.This study provides a theoretical basis for controlling and managing this nematode.
基金funded by the Gansu Provincial Department of Education's University Teacher Innovation Fund Project(2025A-001)the Gansu Provincial Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project(2024YB088).
文摘Optimizing the spatial pattern of carbon sequestration service is essential for advancing regional low-carbon development,accelerating the achievement of the"dual carbon"goals,and promoting the high-quality development of ecological environment.The carbon sequestration capacity within the mountain-desert-oasis system(MDOS),a unique landscape pattern,exhibits significant gradient characteristics,and its carbon sink potential can be substantially improved through multi-scale spatial optimization.This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff(InVEST)model to estimate carbon storage and sequestration(CSS)in the Gansu section of Heihe River Basin,China,a representative MDOS,based on land use/land cover(LULC)data from 1990 to 2020.The Patch-level Land Use Simulation(PLUS)model was coupled to simulate LULC and estimate carrying CSS under natural development(ND),ecological protection(EP),water constraint(WC),and economic development(ED)scenarios for 2035.Furthermore,the study constructed and optimized the CSS pattern on the basis of economic and ecological benefits,exploring the guiding significance of different scenarios for pattern optimization.The results showed that CSS spatial distribution is closely correlated with LULC pattern,and CSS is expected to improve in the future.CSS showed an overall increase across subsystems during 1990–2020,but varied across LULC types.CSS of construction land in all subsystems exhibited an increasing trend,while CSS of unused land showed a decreasing trend,with specific changes of 1.68×103 and 3.43×105 t,respectively.Regional CSS dynamics were mainly driven by conversions among unused land,cultivated land,and grassland.The CSS pattern of MDOS was divided into carbon sink functional region(CSFR),low carbon conservation region(LCCR),low carbon economic region(LCER),and economic development region(EDR).Water resources coordination served as the basis of pattern optimization,while the four dimensions—ecological carbon sink,low-carbon maintenance,agricultural carbon reduction and sink enhancement,and urban carbon emission reduction—framed the optimization framework.ND,EP,WC,and ED scenarios provided guidance as the basic reference,optimal benefit,"dual carbon"baseline,and upper development limit,respectively.Additionally,the detailed CSS sub-partitions of MDOS covered most potential scenarios of such ecosystems,demonstrating the applicability of these sub-partitions.These findings provide valuable references for enhancing CSS and hold important significance for low-carbon territorial spatial planning in the MDOS.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42201374,42071359)。
文摘The roles of diurnal temperature in providing heat accumulation and chilling requirements for vegetation spring phenology differ.Although previous studies have established a stronger correlation between leaf onset and diurnal temperature than between leaf onset and average temperature,current research on modeling spring phenology based on diurnal temperature indicators remains limited.In this study,we confirmed the start of the growing season(SOS)sensitivity to diurnal temperature and average temperature in boreal forest.The estimation of SOS was carried out by employing K-Nearest Neighbor Regression(KNR-TDN)model,Random Forest Regres-sion(RFR-TDN)model,eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGB-TDN)model and Light Gradient Boosting Machine model(LightGBM-TDN)driven by diurnal temperature indicators during 1982-2015,and the SOS was projected from 2015 to 2100 based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)climate scenario datasets.The sensitivity of boreal forest SOS to daytime temperature is greater than that to average temperature and nighttime temperature.The LightGBM-TDN model perform best across all vegetation types,exhibiting the lowest RMSE and bias compared to the KNR-TDN model,RFR-TDN model and XGB-TDN model.By incorporating diurn-al temperature indicators instead of relying only on average temperature indicators to simulate spring phenology,an improvement in the accuracy of the model is achieved.Furthermore,the preseason accumulated daytime temperature,daytime temperature and snow cover end date emerged as significant drivers of the SOS simulation in the study area.The simulation results based on LightGBM-TDN model exhibit a trend of advancing SOS followed by stabilization under future climate scenarios.This study underscores the potential of diurn-al temperature indicators as a viable alternative to average temperature indicators in driving spring phenology models,offering a prom-ising new method for simulating spring phenology.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF1303201).
文摘Enhancing the spatio-temporal connectivity of dynamic landscapes is crucial for species to adapt to climate change.However,the spatio-temporal connectivity network approach considering climate change and species movement is often overlooked.Taking Tibetan wild ass on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau as an example,we simulated species distribution under current(2019)and future scenarios(2100),constructed spatio-temporal connectivity networks,and assessed the spatio-temporal connectivity.The results show that under the current,SSP2–4.5 and SSP3–7.0 scenarios,suitable habitats for the Tibetan wild ass account for 21.11%,21.34%,and 20.95%of the total area,respectively,with increased fragmentation projected by 2100.78.35%of the habitats which are predicted to be suitable under current conditions will remain suitable in the future,which can be regarded as stable climate refuges.With the increase in future emission intensity,the percentage of auxiliary connectivity corridors increases from 27.65%to 33.57%.This indicates that more patches will function as temporary refuges and the auxiliary connectivity corridors will gradually weaken the dominance of direct connectivity corridors.Under different SSP-RCP scenarios,the internal spatio-temporal connectivity is always higher than direct connectivity and auxiliary connectivity,accounting for 42%–43%.Compared with the spatio-temporal perspective,the purely spatial perspective overestimates network connectivity by about 28%considering all current and future patches,and underestimates network connectivity by 16%–21%when only considering all current or future patches.In this study,a new approach of spatio-temporal connectivity network is proposed to bridge climate refuges,which contributes to the long-term effectiveness of conservation networks for species’adaptation to climate change.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China "973" Program (Grant No. 2012CB956200)the Knowledge Innovation Project (Grant No. KZCX2-EW-202)the Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA05090103) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downseale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross- validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downsealing to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 （HadCM3） simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 （RCP 4.5） scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5）. The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011- 35 relative to 1980-99.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2010CB950400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Key Project,Grant No.41030961)the Australia-China Bilateral Climate Change Partnerships Program of the Australian Department of Climate Change
文摘The summer rainfall over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YRSR) has been estimated with a multi-linear regression model using principal atmospheric modes derived from a 500 hPa geopotential height and a 700 hPa zonal vapor flux over the domain of East Asia and the West Pacific.The model was developed using data from 1958 92 and validated with an independent prediction from 1993 2008.The independent prediction was efficient in predicting the YRSR with a correlation coefficient of 0.72 and a relative root mean square error of 18%.The downscaling model was applied to two general circulation models (GCMs) of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) to project rainfall for present and future climate under B1 and A1B emission scenarios.The downscaled results pro-vided a closer representation of the observation compared to the raw models in the present climate.In addition,compared to the inconsistent prediction directly from dif-ferent GCMs,the downscaled results provided a consistent projection for this half-century,which indicated a clear increase in the YRSR.Under the B1 emission scenario,the rainfall could increase by an average of 11.9% until 2011 25 and 17.2% until 2036 50 from the current state;under the A1B emission scenario,rainfall could increase by an average of 15.5% until 2011 25 and 25.3% until 2036 50 from the current state.Moreover,the increased rate was faster in the following decade (2011 25) than the latter of this half-century (2036 50) under both emissions.
基金funding from the projects Rede CLIMA,the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change(INCTCC),from the FAPESP—Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil and strategies for Adaptation options project(Ref.2008/58161-1).
文摘The authors analyze climate extremes indices (CEI) of rainfall over the largest basins of the Brazilian territory: Amazon (AMA), S?o Francisco (SF), Tocantins (TO) and Paraná (PAR) rivers. The CEI represent the frequency of heavy precipitation events (R30mm and R95p) and short duration extreme rainfall (RX5day and RX1day). Droughts (CDDd) are identified based on two indicators: The longest dry period (CDD) and the annual cycle. The results demonstrate that CDDd, RX1day and RX5day occurred with more frequency and intensity in SF basin during El Ni?o events. CDDd was of greater magnitude in the TO basin during La Ni?a events, while an increase of RX1day occurred in El Ni?o. The strong El Ni?o events (1983 and 1997) caused more intense and frequent RX1day and R30mm over the PAR basin. Amazon droughts occurred in two out of the six El Ni?o events. Moreover, the relationship between the positive (negative) sea superficial temperatures anomalies in North (South) Tropical Atlantic and drought in AMA basin was corroborated. A gradual warming of SST was observed at the start of 2003 until it achieved a maximum in 2005 associated with the southwestern Amazon drought. The second highest anomaly of SST was in 2010 linked with drought that was more spatially extensive than the 2005 drought. The spatial distribution of annual trends showed a significant increase of CDD in south-eastern AMA, Upper SF, northern PAR and throughout the TO basins. R20mm, RX1day and RX5day tend to increase significantly in southwestern (northeast) PAR (AMA) and northwestern TO basins. Comparisons between CEI derived from daily precipitation data from Climate Prediction Center (CPCp) and of the ETA_HadCM3 model showed that the model overestimated RX1day, RX5day and CDD, in the four basins. Future scenarios show that dry periods will occur with greatest magnitude in all the basins until 2071-2099 time slice, while RX1day will be more intense in the TO and SF basins.
文摘Estimating CO2 emission factor of the electricity system is a key aspect in the calculation of the baseline emissions for projects certified as CDM （Clean Development Mechanism）, which replace energy from the grid. Currently, Uruguay is driving the expansion of the electricity system based on domestic renewable energies, in addition to replacing oil-based fuels for others with lower emission factors. This implies a substantial change of the generation park in the next decade and of the associated CO2 emissions. In this paper, a calculation methodology of the baseline emissions is adapted for its incorporation in the software SimSEE （Electric Energy Systems Simulator）, which is used for modeling the Uruguayan electric system, and therefore, allows modeling the current energy generator park and the future one. Using this tool, the CO2 emission factor＇s evolution is evaluated in the 2012-2020 period. The 2020 scenario is based on an optimal expansion of the electric system. The results indicate a strong reduction of the emission factor between 2012 and 2020, going from average values （for 100 simulations） around 0.60 tCO2/MWh to 0.15 tCO2/MWh. In this possible future scenario, CDM certification will probably not act as a strong incentive in Uruguay for the development of projects based on non-traditional renewable energies.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(grant number 2020YFC1200101)Perceptive assessment of health risks caused by climate change,air pollution and health co-benefits of low carbon transition in China(grant number 15LCI1)the Emergency Response Mechanism Operation Program,National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(grant number 131031102000180007).
文摘Background:Anopheles gambiae(An.gambiae)is considered the most effective malaria vector worldwide and is widely distributed in Africa.The purpose of this study is to determine the potential impact of climate change on An.gambiae and predict the present and future potential suitable habitat globally.Methods:In this study,environmental variables,global occurrence data of An.gambiae,and the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)were used to evaluate the contribution of environmental factors and predict the habitat suitability of An.gambiae under the current and future scenarios.Results:Among all environmental variables,isothermality(Bio3,34.5%)contributed the most to An.gambiae distribution.Under current climate conditions,the potential suitable areas for An.gambiae are mainly located near the equator(approximately 30°N-30°S),with a total area of 16.58 million km2,including central and northern South America,a fraction of areas near the equator of North America,central and southern Africa,some tropical regions of southern Asia,and small areas of Oceania.The areas of potential suitable habitats would be reduced to varying degrees in future climate scenarios.Conclusions:Potential suitable habitats for An.gambiae may not be limited to Africa.Necessary surveillance and preventive measures should be undertaken in high-risk regions,including those outside Africa,to monitor and control the spread of An.gambiae.
