Several studies showed that the breast cancer incidence rates are higher in high-income (developed) countries, due to the link of breast cancer with several risk factors and the presence of systematic screening polici...Several studies showed that the breast cancer incidence rates are higher in high-income (developed) countries, due to the link of breast cancer with several risk factors and the presence of systematic screening policies. Some of the authors suggest that lower breast cancer incidence rates in low-income (developing) countries probably reflect international variation in hormonal factors and accessibility to early detection facilities. Recent studies showed that the breast cancer increased rapidly among women in Pakistan (a developing country) and it became the first malignancy among females of Pakistan. Although, the incidence rates may contain important evidence for understanding and control of the disease;however in Pakistan, the breast cancer incidence data have never been available in the last five decades since independence;rather, only hospital-based data are available. In this study, we intend to apply Functional Time Series (FTS) models to the breast cancer incidence rates of United State (developed country), and to see the difference between various components (age and time) of Functional Time Series (FTS) models applied independently on the breast cancer incidence rates of Karachi (Pakistan) and US. Past studies have already suggested that the incidence of US breast cancer cases was expected to increase in the coming decades. A progressive increase in the number of new cases is already predetermined by the high birth rate that occurred during the middle part of the century, and it will lead to nearly a doubling in the number of cases in about 4 decades. We also obtain 15 years predictions of breast cancer incidence rates in United States and compare them with the forecasts of incidence curves for Karachi. Development of methods for cancer incidence trend forecasting can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources between the need for development of new treatments and the need for new research directed toward primary preventive measures.展开更多
Multiple change-points estimation for functional time series is studied in this paper.The change-point problem is first transformed into a high-dimensional sparse estimation problem via basis functions.Group least abs...Multiple change-points estimation for functional time series is studied in this paper.The change-point problem is first transformed into a high-dimensional sparse estimation problem via basis functions.Group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)is then applied to estimate the number and the locations of possible change points.However,the group LASSO(GLASSO)always overestimate the true points.To circumvent this problem,a further Information Criterion(IC)is applied to eliminate the redundant estimated points.It is shown that the proposed two-step procedure estimates the number and the locations of the change-points consistently.Simulations and two temperature data examples are also provided to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed method.展开更多
Based on the existing continuous borehole strain observation,the multiquadric function fitting method was used to deal with time series data. The impact of difference kernel function parameters was discussed to obtain...Based on the existing continuous borehole strain observation,the multiquadric function fitting method was used to deal with time series data. The impact of difference kernel function parameters was discussed to obtain a valuable fitting result,from which the physical connotation of the original data and its possible applications were analyzed.Meanwhile,a brief comparison was made between the results of multiquadric function fitting and polynomial fitting.展开更多
This paper examines the causal relationship between oil prices and the Gross Domestic Product(GDP)in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.The study is carried out by a data set collected quarterly,by Saudi Arabian Monetary Aut...This paper examines the causal relationship between oil prices and the Gross Domestic Product(GDP)in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.The study is carried out by a data set collected quarterly,by Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority,over a period from 1974 to 2016.We seek how a change in real crude oil price affects the GDP of KSA.Based on a new technique,we treat this data in its continuous path.Precisely,we analyze the causality between these two variables,i.e.,oil prices and GDP,by using their yearly curves observed in the four quarters of each year.We discuss the causality in the sense of Granger,which requires the stationarity of the data.Thus,in the first Step,we test the stationarity by using the Monte Carlo test of a functional time series stationarity.Our main goal is treated in the second step,where we use the functional causality idea to model the co-variability between these variables.We show that the two series are not integrated;there is one causality between these two variables.All the statistical analyzes were performed using R software.展开更多
By establishing the concepts of fuzzy approaching set and fuzzy approaching functional mapping and making research on them, a new method for time series prediction is introduced.
Forecasting is predicting or estimating a future event or trend.Supply chains have been constantly growing in most countries ever since the industrial revolution of the 18th century.As the competitiveness between supp...Forecasting is predicting or estimating a future event or trend.Supply chains have been constantly growing in most countries ever since the industrial revolution of the 18th century.As the competitiveness between supply chains intensifies day by day,companies are shifting their focus to predictive analytics techniques to minimize costs and boost productivity and profits.Excessive inventory(overstock)and stock outs are very significant issues for suppliers.Excessive inventory levels can lead to loss of revenue because the company's capital is tied up in excess inventory.Excess inventory can also lead to increased storage,insurance costs and labor as well as lower and degraded quality based on the nature of the product.Shortages or out of stock can lead to lost sales and a decline in customer contentment and loyalty to the store.If clients are unable to find the right products on the shelves,they may switch to another vendor or purchase alternative items.Demand forecasting is valuable for planning,scheduling and improving the coordination of all supply chain activities.This paper discusses the use of neural networks for seasonal time series forecasting.Our objective is to evaluate the contribution of the correct choice of the transfer function by proposing a new form of the transfer function to improve the quality of the forecast.展开更多
Background: In this paper, we conduct an analysis of the COVID-19 data in the United States in 2020 via functional data analysis methods. Through this research, we investigate the effectiveness of the practice of publ...Background: In this paper, we conduct an analysis of the COVID-19 data in the United States in 2020 via functional data analysis methods. Through this research, we investigate the effectiveness of the practice of public health measures, and assess the correlation between infections and deaths caused by the COVID-19. Additionally, we look into the relationship between COVID-19 spread and geographical locations, and propose a forecasting method to predict the total number of confirmed cases nationwide.Methods: The functional data analysis methods include functional principal analysis methods, functional canonical correlation analysis methods, an expectation-maximization (EM) based clustering algorithm and a functional time series model used for forecasting.Results: It is evident that the practice of public health measures helps to reduce the growth rate of the epidemic outbreak over the nation. We have observed a high canonical correlation between confirmed and death cases. States that are geographically close to the hot spots are likely to be clustered together, and population density appears to be a critical factor affecting the cluster structure. The proposed functional time series model gives more reliable and accurate predictions of the total number of confirmed cases than standard time series methods.Conclusions: The results obtained by applying the functional data analysis methods provide new insights into the COVID-19 data in the United States. With our results and recommendations, the health professionals can make better decisions to reduce the spread of the epidemic, and mitigate its negative effects to the national public health.展开更多
文摘Several studies showed that the breast cancer incidence rates are higher in high-income (developed) countries, due to the link of breast cancer with several risk factors and the presence of systematic screening policies. Some of the authors suggest that lower breast cancer incidence rates in low-income (developing) countries probably reflect international variation in hormonal factors and accessibility to early detection facilities. Recent studies showed that the breast cancer increased rapidly among women in Pakistan (a developing country) and it became the first malignancy among females of Pakistan. Although, the incidence rates may contain important evidence for understanding and control of the disease;however in Pakistan, the breast cancer incidence data have never been available in the last five decades since independence;rather, only hospital-based data are available. In this study, we intend to apply Functional Time Series (FTS) models to the breast cancer incidence rates of United State (developed country), and to see the difference between various components (age and time) of Functional Time Series (FTS) models applied independently on the breast cancer incidence rates of Karachi (Pakistan) and US. Past studies have already suggested that the incidence of US breast cancer cases was expected to increase in the coming decades. A progressive increase in the number of new cases is already predetermined by the high birth rate that occurred during the middle part of the century, and it will lead to nearly a doubling in the number of cases in about 4 decades. We also obtain 15 years predictions of breast cancer incidence rates in United States and compare them with the forecasts of incidence curves for Karachi. Development of methods for cancer incidence trend forecasting can provide a sound and accurate foundation for planning a comprehensive national strategy for optimal partitioning of research resources between the need for development of new treatments and the need for new research directed toward primary preventive measures.
基金NSFC(Grant No.12171427/U21A20426/11771390)Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.LZ21A010002)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2021XZZX002)。
文摘Multiple change-points estimation for functional time series is studied in this paper.The change-point problem is first transformed into a high-dimensional sparse estimation problem via basis functions.Group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)is then applied to estimate the number and the locations of possible change points.However,the group LASSO(GLASSO)always overestimate the true points.To circumvent this problem,a further Information Criterion(IC)is applied to eliminate the redundant estimated points.It is shown that the proposed two-step procedure estimates the number and the locations of the change-points consistently.Simulations and two temperature data examples are also provided to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed method.
基金sponsored by the Annual Earthquake Tracking Task,CEA(2017010214)
文摘Based on the existing continuous borehole strain observation,the multiquadric function fitting method was used to deal with time series data. The impact of difference kernel function parameters was discussed to obtain a valuable fitting result,from which the physical connotation of the original data and its possible applications were analyzed.Meanwhile,a brief comparison was made between the results of multiquadric function fitting and polynomial fitting.
基金the financial support through the General Research Program under project number GRP-73-41.
文摘This paper examines the causal relationship between oil prices and the Gross Domestic Product(GDP)in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.The study is carried out by a data set collected quarterly,by Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority,over a period from 1974 to 2016.We seek how a change in real crude oil price affects the GDP of KSA.Based on a new technique,we treat this data in its continuous path.Precisely,we analyze the causality between these two variables,i.e.,oil prices and GDP,by using their yearly curves observed in the four quarters of each year.We discuss the causality in the sense of Granger,which requires the stationarity of the data.Thus,in the first Step,we test the stationarity by using the Monte Carlo test of a functional time series stationarity.Our main goal is treated in the second step,where we use the functional causality idea to model the co-variability between these variables.We show that the two series are not integrated;there is one causality between these two variables.All the statistical analyzes were performed using R software.
文摘By establishing the concepts of fuzzy approaching set and fuzzy approaching functional mapping and making research on them, a new method for time series prediction is introduced.
文摘Forecasting is predicting or estimating a future event or trend.Supply chains have been constantly growing in most countries ever since the industrial revolution of the 18th century.As the competitiveness between supply chains intensifies day by day,companies are shifting their focus to predictive analytics techniques to minimize costs and boost productivity and profits.Excessive inventory(overstock)and stock outs are very significant issues for suppliers.Excessive inventory levels can lead to loss of revenue because the company's capital is tied up in excess inventory.Excess inventory can also lead to increased storage,insurance costs and labor as well as lower and degraded quality based on the nature of the product.Shortages or out of stock can lead to lost sales and a decline in customer contentment and loyalty to the store.If clients are unable to find the right products on the shelves,they may switch to another vendor or purchase alternative items.Demand forecasting is valuable for planning,scheduling and improving the coordination of all supply chain activities.This paper discusses the use of neural networks for seasonal time series forecasting.Our objective is to evaluate the contribution of the correct choice of the transfer function by proposing a new form of the transfer function to improve the quality of the forecast.
文摘Background: In this paper, we conduct an analysis of the COVID-19 data in the United States in 2020 via functional data analysis methods. Through this research, we investigate the effectiveness of the practice of public health measures, and assess the correlation between infections and deaths caused by the COVID-19. Additionally, we look into the relationship between COVID-19 spread and geographical locations, and propose a forecasting method to predict the total number of confirmed cases nationwide.Methods: The functional data analysis methods include functional principal analysis methods, functional canonical correlation analysis methods, an expectation-maximization (EM) based clustering algorithm and a functional time series model used for forecasting.Results: It is evident that the practice of public health measures helps to reduce the growth rate of the epidemic outbreak over the nation. We have observed a high canonical correlation between confirmed and death cases. States that are geographically close to the hot spots are likely to be clustered together, and population density appears to be a critical factor affecting the cluster structure. The proposed functional time series model gives more reliable and accurate predictions of the total number of confirmed cases than standard time series methods.Conclusions: The results obtained by applying the functional data analysis methods provide new insights into the COVID-19 data in the United States. With our results and recommendations, the health professionals can make better decisions to reduce the spread of the epidemic, and mitigate its negative effects to the national public health.
