The aim of this study was to investigate the responses of frost dates to global warming and its influences on grain yields. In this study, based on the frost date series defined by daily minimum ground temperature, th...The aim of this study was to investigate the responses of frost dates to global warming and its influences on grain yields. In this study, based on the frost date series defined by daily minimum ground temperature, the spatial and temporal characteristics of first frost date （FFD）, last frost date （LFD） and frost-free period （FFP） were analyzed. The impact of extending FFP on major crop yields was also studied. The results were as follows： FFD showed a significantly delaying trend of 2.2 d/10 y, and LFD presented an advancing trend of 2.4 d/10 y. FFP extended at a rate of 4.5 d/10 y due to the later FFD and earlier LFD. The most obvious trend of FFD was in westem Henan, while the most significant trend of LFD and FFP oc- curred in south central parts of the study area. However, in eestem region, the trends of FFD, LFD and FFP were not so obvious. Major crop yield showed a sig- nificant correlation with frost-free period for Henan during 1961-2013. The yields of grain, rice, wheat, and maize increased by 79.5, 90.0, 79.5 and 70.5 kg/hm2 with FFP extending by one day.展开更多
[Objective]The changes trend of temperature and frost-free period in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Method]According to the climate data of Xingtai City and Nangong County in 1958-2010,the changes trend of t...[Objective]The changes trend of temperature and frost-free period in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Method]According to the climate data of Xingtai City and Nangong County in 1958-2010,the changes trend of the temperature,the first and the last frost day,and the frost-free days in Xingtai were studied.The characteristics of the changes of temperature and frost-free days in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Result]No matter in city or countryside,the annual average temperature was increasing.The climate tendency rates in Xingtai and Nangong were about 0.5 and 0.2℃/10 a respectively.Especially,since 1996,the annual average temperature increasing trend was about 1.0℃/10 a.The average temperature of the four seasons was also climbing and was similar to the increasing span of the annual average temperature.The annual average temperature increasing span was the largest in winter.And the increase of the annual average temperature in winter was the largest and the increase of the annual average temperature was caused by the increase of the average temperature in winter.The urban annual average temperature was obviously higher than that of the countryside,which reflected the characteristics of tropical island effect.No matter in the city or the countryside,the early frost day,final frost day and frost-free day showed same tendency,namely,the delay of early frost day,advance of final-frost day,extension of frost-free day;the day of urban early frost was late than that of the countryside,and the final frost day was earlier than that of the countryside,the frost-free days were longer than that of countryside and indirectly influenced by urban heat effect.[Conclusion]The study provided theoretical basis for the development and application of thermal resources in Xingtai.展开更多
The frost-free period（FFP）first frost date（FFD） and last frost date（LFD） have been regard as the important climate variables for agricultural production. Understanding the spatio-temporal variations of the FFPFF...The frost-free period（FFP）first frost date（FFD） and last frost date（LFD） have been regard as the important climate variables for agricultural production. Understanding the spatio-temporal variations of the FFPFFD and LFD is beneficial to reduce the harmful impacts of climate change on agricultural production and enhance the agricultural adaptation. This study examined daily minimum temperatures for 823 national-level meteorological stationscalculated the values of FFDLFD and FFP for station-specific and region-specific from 1951 to 2012estimated the gradients of linear regression for station-specific moving averages of FFDLFD and FFPand assessed station-specific time series of FFP and detected the abrupt change. The results as follows： at both the station level and the regional levelthe FFP across China decreases with the increase of latitude from south to northand with the increase of altitude from east to west generally. At the station levelthe inter-annual fluctuations of FFDLFD and FFP in south and west agricultural regions are greater than those in north and east. At the regional levelexcluding the QT regiontemporal changes of FFP are relatively small in both the low-latitude and the high-latitude regionsbut for the mid-latitude regions. According to the linear trend gradients of the moving average values of station-specific FFDLFD and FFPFFD was delayedLFD advancedand FFP extended gradually over the 80% of China. Furthermorethe change magnitudes for FFDLFD and FFP in the north and east agricultural regions are higher than that in the southern and western. Among the 659 station-specific time series of FFP examined by the Mann-Kendall test341 stationslocated mainly in the north regionhave one identifiable and significant abrupt change. And at the 341 stations with identified abrupt changesmost（57%） abrupt changes occurred during 1991–2012followed by the periods of 1981–1990（28%）1971–1980（12%）and 1951–1970（3%）. The spatio-temporal variations of FFDLFD and FFP would provide important guidance to agricultural practices.展开更多
Climate change has an impact on various climatic variables. In this study our focus is mainly on temperature characteristics of climate parameter. In temperate and humid regions like southern Ontario, the effect of cl...Climate change has an impact on various climatic variables. In this study our focus is mainly on temperature characteristics of climate parameter. In temperate and humid regions like southern Ontario, the effect of climate change on Frost-free days in winter is distinctive. The average annual temperature is going upward but the extreme increase is in the winter temperature. Winter average temperature is going up by about 2˚C. However, extreme daily minimum temperature is going up by more than 3˚C. This climate effect has a great impact on the nature of precipitation and length of frost-free days. The snowfall over winter months is decreasing and the rainfall is increasing. However, the number of frost-free days during late fall months, early winter months, late winter months and early spring months are increasing. This result reveals an increase in length of the growing season. This research focuses on the effect of change in climatic variables on Frost-free days in Southern Ontario. Therefore, special attention should be given to the effect of change in climate Frost-free conditions on length of crop growing in winter season for potential investigation.展开更多
Climate change poses significant risks to agriculture,particularly in East Asia,a major crop-producing region.This study evaluates the effectiveness of near-term climate predictions in forecasting agricultural thermal...Climate change poses significant risks to agriculture,particularly in East Asia,a major crop-producing region.This study evaluates the effectiveness of near-term climate predictions in forecasting agricultural thermal conditions in East Asia for up to five years.We compare temperature-based agroclimatic indicators from atmospheric reanalysis data with the firstyear prediction of the Decadal Prediction System version 4(DePreSys4),initialized annually from November 1960 to 2024.Our analysis reveals that first-year predictions accurately represent observed spatial climatological patterns,although trends in agroclimatic indicators based on daily maximum temperature are overestimated.High skill scores are observed in predicting the beginning of the growing season,frost-free days,agricultural hot days,and heat intensity in major cropping regions.However,the end of the growing season is less predictable due to longer lead times.Notably,five-year average predictions show higher skill than first-year predictions due to smoothed interannual variability.These improved climate predictions enable farmers and policymakers to make informed decisions about crop selection and agricultural infrastructure.展开更多
基金Funded by"Strategic Priority Research Program"of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05090101,XDA05090104)China Global Change Research Program(2010CB950101,2012CB955403)+2 种基金Basic Research Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology(2011FY120300)Doctor Foundation of Xinyang Normal University(0201403)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41271124,41101549)~~
文摘The aim of this study was to investigate the responses of frost dates to global warming and its influences on grain yields. In this study, based on the frost date series defined by daily minimum ground temperature, the spatial and temporal characteristics of first frost date （FFD）, last frost date （LFD） and frost-free period （FFP） were analyzed. The impact of extending FFP on major crop yields was also studied. The results were as follows： FFD showed a significantly delaying trend of 2.2 d/10 y, and LFD presented an advancing trend of 2.4 d/10 y. FFP extended at a rate of 4.5 d/10 y due to the later FFD and earlier LFD. The most obvious trend of FFD was in westem Henan, while the most significant trend of LFD and FFP oc- curred in south central parts of the study area. However, in eestem region, the trends of FFD, LFD and FFP were not so obvious. Major crop yield showed a sig- nificant correlation with frost-free period for Henan during 1961-2013. The yields of grain, rice, wheat, and maize increased by 79.5, 90.0, 79.5 and 70.5 kg/hm2 with FFP extending by one day.
文摘[Objective]The changes trend of temperature and frost-free period in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Method]According to the climate data of Xingtai City and Nangong County in 1958-2010,the changes trend of the temperature,the first and the last frost day,and the frost-free days in Xingtai were studied.The characteristics of the changes of temperature and frost-free days in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Result]No matter in city or countryside,the annual average temperature was increasing.The climate tendency rates in Xingtai and Nangong were about 0.5 and 0.2℃/10 a respectively.Especially,since 1996,the annual average temperature increasing trend was about 1.0℃/10 a.The average temperature of the four seasons was also climbing and was similar to the increasing span of the annual average temperature.The annual average temperature increasing span was the largest in winter.And the increase of the annual average temperature in winter was the largest and the increase of the annual average temperature was caused by the increase of the average temperature in winter.The urban annual average temperature was obviously higher than that of the countryside,which reflected the characteristics of tropical island effect.No matter in the city or the countryside,the early frost day,final frost day and frost-free day showed same tendency,namely,the delay of early frost day,advance of final-frost day,extension of frost-free day;the day of urban early frost was late than that of the countryside,and the final frost day was earlier than that of the countryside,the frost-free days were longer than that of countryside and indirectly influenced by urban heat effect.[Conclusion]The study provided theoretical basis for the development and application of thermal resources in Xingtai.
基金National Basic Program of China(973 Program),No.2012CB955800National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41671536,No.41501588+1 种基金Qinghai Key Laboratory Open Fund of Disaster Prevention and Reduction,No.QHKF201401Key Scientific Research Projects in Colleges and Universities,No.17A170005
文摘The frost-free period（FFP）first frost date（FFD） and last frost date（LFD） have been regard as the important climate variables for agricultural production. Understanding the spatio-temporal variations of the FFPFFD and LFD is beneficial to reduce the harmful impacts of climate change on agricultural production and enhance the agricultural adaptation. This study examined daily minimum temperatures for 823 national-level meteorological stationscalculated the values of FFDLFD and FFP for station-specific and region-specific from 1951 to 2012estimated the gradients of linear regression for station-specific moving averages of FFDLFD and FFPand assessed station-specific time series of FFP and detected the abrupt change. The results as follows： at both the station level and the regional levelthe FFP across China decreases with the increase of latitude from south to northand with the increase of altitude from east to west generally. At the station levelthe inter-annual fluctuations of FFDLFD and FFP in south and west agricultural regions are greater than those in north and east. At the regional levelexcluding the QT regiontemporal changes of FFP are relatively small in both the low-latitude and the high-latitude regionsbut for the mid-latitude regions. According to the linear trend gradients of the moving average values of station-specific FFDLFD and FFPFFD was delayedLFD advancedand FFP extended gradually over the 80% of China. Furthermorethe change magnitudes for FFDLFD and FFP in the north and east agricultural regions are higher than that in the southern and western. Among the 659 station-specific time series of FFP examined by the Mann-Kendall test341 stationslocated mainly in the north regionhave one identifiable and significant abrupt change. And at the 341 stations with identified abrupt changesmost（57%） abrupt changes occurred during 1991–2012followed by the periods of 1981–1990（28%）1971–1980（12%）and 1951–1970（3%）. The spatio-temporal variations of FFDLFD and FFP would provide important guidance to agricultural practices.
文摘Climate change has an impact on various climatic variables. In this study our focus is mainly on temperature characteristics of climate parameter. In temperate and humid regions like southern Ontario, the effect of climate change on Frost-free days in winter is distinctive. The average annual temperature is going upward but the extreme increase is in the winter temperature. Winter average temperature is going up by about 2˚C. However, extreme daily minimum temperature is going up by more than 3˚C. This climate effect has a great impact on the nature of precipitation and length of frost-free days. The snowfall over winter months is decreasing and the rainfall is increasing. However, the number of frost-free days during late fall months, early winter months, late winter months and early spring months are increasing. This result reveals an increase in length of the growing season. This research focuses on the effect of change in climatic variables on Frost-free days in Southern Ontario. Therefore, special attention should be given to the effect of change in climate Frost-free conditions on length of crop growing in winter season for potential investigation.
基金supported by a National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)grant funded by the Korean government(MSIT)(Grant No.RS-2024-00342219)the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program(Grant No.RS-2025-02313090)S.-Y.JUN and B.-J.PARK were supported by Korea Polar Research Institute(KOPRI)grants funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries(Grant No.KOPRI PE25010).
文摘Climate change poses significant risks to agriculture,particularly in East Asia,a major crop-producing region.This study evaluates the effectiveness of near-term climate predictions in forecasting agricultural thermal conditions in East Asia for up to five years.We compare temperature-based agroclimatic indicators from atmospheric reanalysis data with the firstyear prediction of the Decadal Prediction System version 4(DePreSys4),initialized annually from November 1960 to 2024.Our analysis reveals that first-year predictions accurately represent observed spatial climatological patterns,although trends in agroclimatic indicators based on daily maximum temperature are overestimated.High skill scores are observed in predicting the beginning of the growing season,frost-free days,agricultural hot days,and heat intensity in major cropping regions.However,the end of the growing season is less predictable due to longer lead times.Notably,five-year average predictions show higher skill than first-year predictions due to smoothed interannual variability.These improved climate predictions enable farmers and policymakers to make informed decisions about crop selection and agricultural infrastructure.
