This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assim...This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme （E4DVAR） benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence： the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.展开更多
A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the ...A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The ＂observation＂ of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a ＂truth＂ model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.展开更多
A heavy rainfall event along the mei-yu front during 22-23 June 2002 was chosen for this study. To assess the impact of the routine and additional IOP (intensive observation period) radiosonde observations on the meso...A heavy rainfall event along the mei-yu front during 22-23 June 2002 was chosen for this study. To assess the impact of the routine and additional IOP (intensive observation period) radiosonde observations on the mesoscale heavy rainfall forecast, a series of four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation and model simulation experiments was conducted using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 and the MM5 4DVAR system. The effects of the intensive observations in the different areas on the heavy rainfall forecast were also investigated. The results showed that improvement of the forecast skill for mesoscale heavy rainfall intensity was possible from the assimilation of the IOP radiosonde observations. However, the impact of the IOP observations on the forecast of the rainfall pattern was not significant. Initial conditions obtained through the 4DVAR experiments with a 12-h assimilation window were capable of improving the 24-h forecast. The simulated results after the assimilation showed that it would be best to perform the intensive radiosonde observations in the upstream of the rainfall area and in the moisture passageway area at the same time. Initial conditions created by the 4DVAR led to the low-level moisture convergence over the rainfall area, enhanced frontogenesis and upward motion within the mei-yu front, and intensified middle- and high-level unstable stratification in front of the mei-yu front. Consequently, the heavy rainfall forecast was improved.展开更多
Accurate forecast of rainstorms associated with the mei-yu front has been an important issue for the Chinese economy and society. In July 1998 a heavy rainstorm hit the Yangzi River valley and received widespread atte...Accurate forecast of rainstorms associated with the mei-yu front has been an important issue for the Chinese economy and society. In July 1998 a heavy rainstorm hit the Yangzi River valley and received widespread attention from the public because it caused catastrophic damage in China. Several numerical studies have shown that many forecast models, including Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research’s fifth-generation mesoscale model （MM5）, failed to simulate the heavy precipitation over the Yangzi River valley. This study demonstrates that with the optimal initial conditions from the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation （DRP-4DVar） system, MM5 can successfully reproduce these observed rainfall amounts and can capture many important mesoscale features, including the southwestward shear line and the low-level jet stream. The study also indicates that the failure of previous forecasts can be mainly attributed to the lack of mesoscale details in the initial conditions of the models.展开更多
The four-dimensional variational assimilation(4D-Var)has been widely used in meteorological and oceanographic data assimilation.This method is usually implemented in the model space,known as primal approach(P4D-Var).A...The four-dimensional variational assimilation(4D-Var)has been widely used in meteorological and oceanographic data assimilation.This method is usually implemented in the model space,known as primal approach(P4D-Var).Alternatively,physical space analysis system(4D-PSAS)is proposed to reduce the computation cost,in which the 4D-Var problem is solved in physical space(i.e.,observation space).In this study,the conjugate gradient(CG)algorithm,implemented in the 4D-PSAS system is evaluated and it is found that the non-monotonic change of the gradient norm of 4D-PSAS cost function causes artificial oscillations of cost function in the iteration process.The reason of non-monotonic variation of gradient norm in 4D-PSAS is then analyzed.In order to overcome the non-monotonic variation of gradient norm,a new algorithm,Minimum Residual(MINRES)algorithm,is implemented in the process of assimilation iteration in this study.Our experimental results show that the improved 4D-PSAS with the MINRES algorithm guarantees the monotonic reduction of gradient norm of cost function,greatly improves the convergence properties of 4D-PSAS as well,and significantly restrains the numerical noises associated with the traditional 4D-PSAS system.展开更多
Forecasting convective storms using NWP models is an important goal and a highly active area of ongoing research. Skillful and reliable NWP of convective storms could allow for severe weather warnings with longer lead...Forecasting convective storms using NWP models is an important goal and a highly active area of ongoing research. Skillful and reliable NWP of convective storms could allow for severe weather warnings with longer lead times, as opera- tional forecasters begin to incorporate convective-scale fore- casts into severe weather forecast operations （Stensrud et al., 2009, 2013）. This would then provide vulnerable individuals and industries with more time to seek shelter and/or mitigate the impact of severe weather hazards.展开更多
Aiming at the Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm proposed earlier,the observation error regularization factor is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy of the diffusion model,and an impr...Aiming at the Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm proposed earlier,the observation error regularization factor is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy of the diffusion model,and an improved Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm with observation error regularization(OER-4DVAR STI model)is formed.Firstly,by constructing the inversion process and basic model of OER-4DVAR STI model,its basic principle and logical structure are studied.Secondly,the observation error regularization factor estimation method based on Bayesian optimization is proposed,and the error factor is separated and optimized by two parameters:error statistical time and deviation degree.Finally,the scientific,feasible and advanced nature of the OER-4DVAR STI model are verified by numerical simulation and tracer test data.The experimental results show that OER-4DVAR STI model can better reverse calculate the hazard source term information under the conditions of high atmospheric stability and flat underlying surface.Compared with the previous inversion algorithm,the source intensity estimation accuracy of OER-4DVAR STI model is improved by about 46.97%,and the source location estimation accuracy is improved by about 26.72%.展开更多
Minimization algorithms are singular components in four-dimensional variational data assimilation(4DVar).In this paper,the convergence and application of the conjugate gradient algorithm(CGA),which is based on the Lan...Minimization algorithms are singular components in four-dimensional variational data assimilation(4DVar).In this paper,the convergence and application of the conjugate gradient algorithm(CGA),which is based on the Lanczos iterative algorithm and the Hessian matrix derived from tangent linear and adjoint models using a non-hydrostatic framework,are investigated in the 4DVar minimization.First,the influence of the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization of the Lanczos vector on the convergence of the Lanczos algorithm is studied.The results show that the Lanczos algorithm without orthogonalization fails to converge after the ninth iteration in the 4DVar minimization,while the orthogonalized Lanczos algorithm converges stably.Second,the convergence and computational efficiency of the CGA and quasi-Newton method in batch cycling assimilation experiments are compared on the 4DVar platform of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES).The CGA is 40%more computationally efficient than the quasi-Newton method,although the equivalent analysis results can be obtained by using either the CGA or the quasi-Newton method.Thus,the CGA based on Lanczos iterations is better for solving the optimization problems in the GRAPES 4DVar system.展开更多
Seasonal and interannual changes in the Earth's gravity field are mainly due to mass exchange among the atmosphere,ocean,and continental water sources.The terrestrial water storage changes,detected as gravity chan...Seasonal and interannual changes in the Earth's gravity field are mainly due to mass exchange among the atmosphere,ocean,and continental water sources.The terrestrial water storage changes,detected as gravity changes by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) satellites,are mainly caused by precipitation,evapotranspiration,river transportation and downward infiltration processes.In this study,a land data assimilation system LDAS-G was developed to assimilate the GRACE terrestrial water storage(TWS) data into the Community Land Model(CLM3.5) using the POD-based ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation method PODEn4 DVar,disaggregating the GRACE large-scale terrestrial water storage changes vertically and in time,and placing constraints on the simulation of vertical hydrological variables to improve land surface hydrological simulations.The ideal experiments conducted at a single point and assimilation experiments carried out over China by the LDAS-G data assimilation system showed that the system developed in this study improved the simulation of land surface hydrological variables,indicating the potential of GRACE data assimilation in large-scale land surface hydrological research and applications.展开更多
Replicating the chaotic characteristics inherent in nonlinear dynamical systems via machine learning(ML)is a key challenge in this rapidly advancing interdisciplinary field.In this work,we explore the potential of var...Replicating the chaotic characteristics inherent in nonlinear dynamical systems via machine learning(ML)is a key challenge in this rapidly advancing interdisciplinary field.In this work,we explore the potential of variational quantum circuits(VQC)for learning the stochastic properties of classical nonlinear dynamical systems.Specifically,we focus on the one-and two-dimensional logistic maps,which,while simple,remain under-explored in the context of learning dynamical characteristics.Our findings reveal that,even for such simple dynamical systems,accurately replicating longterm characteristics is hindered by a pronounced sensitivity to overfitting.While increasing the parameter complexity of the ML model typically enhances short-term prediction accuracy,it also leads to a degradation in the model’s ability to replicate long-term characteristics,primarily due to the detrimental effects of overfitting on generalization power.By comparing the VQC with two widely recognized classical ML techniques,which are long short-term memory(LSTM)networks for timeseries processing and reservoir computing,we demonstrate that VQC outperforms these methods in terms of replicating long-term characteristics.Our results suggest that for the ML of dynamics,it is demanded to develop more compact and efficient models(such as VQC)rather than more complicated and large-scale ones.展开更多
Plastome variation,including single spontaneous nucleotide substitutions and single insertions/deletions,is the major source of leaf variegation in plants.Additionally,one recent study has showed that a simple plastom...Plastome variation,including single spontaneous nucleotide substitutions and single insertions/deletions,is the major source of leaf variegation in plants.Additionally,one recent study has showed that a simple plastome structural variation,which is induced by one pair of small inverted repeats,can also result in leaf variegation.Here we show a complex plastome structural variation caused by intermolecular and intramolecular recombination across three pairs of small inverted repeats accounts for leaf variegation in a widely cultivated shrub Heptapleurum ellipticum(Araliaceae).This plastome structural variation contains two deletions and two duplications,resulting in dramatic expansion of IRs,substantial contraction of LSC and loss of 11 genes that essential for photosynthesis.Plastome heteroplasmy was detected in both green and albino sectors of variegated leaves.Relative to green sectors,albino sectors in the variegated leaves exhibit significantly reduced expression for the 11 genes lost in the mutated plastome as well as 26 other genes,but significantly increased expression for one gene related to translation apparatus.Optical and transmission electron microscopy observations showed that mesophyll cells of albino sectors possess plastids lacking grana lamellae,which likely carry the mutated plastome and contribute to albinism.In both sectors,the first layer of spongy mesophyll cells beneath the lower epidermis contains normal chloroplasts,suggesting periclinal division of the lower epidermis during development.Our study demonstrates that multiple small repeats can collectively mediate intra-and inter-molecular recombination in plastome and offers a new mechanism accounting for leaf variegation in plants.展开更多
Cirrus clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system.We investigated the spatiotemporal variations of cirrus over the South China Sea(SCS)using satellite data(MOD08,MYD08,CALIPSO)and ...Cirrus clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system.We investigated the spatiotemporal variations of cirrus over the South China Sea(SCS)using satellite data(MOD08,MYD08,CALIPSO)and reanalysis data(MERRA-2)from March 2007 to February 2015(eight years).The horizontal distribution reveals lower cirrus fraction values in the northern SCS and higher values in the southern region,with minima observed in March and April and maxima sequentially occurring in August(northern SCS,NSCS),September(middle SCS,MSCS),and December(southern SCS,SSCS).Vertically,the cirrus fraction peaks in summer and reaches its lowest levels in spring.Opaque cirrus dominates during summer in the NSCS and MSCS,comprising 53.6%and 55.9%,respectively,while the SSCS exhibits a higher frequency of opaque cirrus relative to other cloud types.Subvisible cirrus clouds have the lowest frequency year-round,whereas thin cirrus is most prominent in winter in the NSCS(46.3%)and in spring in the MSCS(45.3%).A case study from September 2021 further explores the influence of ice crystal habits on brightness temperature(BT)over the SCS.Simulations utilizing five ice crystal shapes from the ARTS DDA(Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator Discrete Dipole Approximation)database and the RTTOV 12.4 radiative transfer model reveal that the 8-column-aggregate shape best represents BT in the NSCS and SSCS,while the large-block-aggregate shape performs better in the SSCS.展开更多
Understanding the spatial distributions and corresponding variation mechanisms of key soil nutrients in fragile karst ecosystems can assist in promoting sustainable development.However,due to the implementation of eco...Understanding the spatial distributions and corresponding variation mechanisms of key soil nutrients in fragile karst ecosystems can assist in promoting sustainable development.However,due to the implementation of ecological restoration initiatives such as land-use conversions,novel changes in the spatial characteristics of soil nutrients remain unknown.To address this gap,we explored nutrient variations and the drivers of the variation in the 0–15 cm topsoil layer using a regional-scale sampling method in a typical karst area in northwest Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Southwest China.Descriptive statistics,geostatistics,and spatial analysis were used to assess the soil nutrient variability.The results indicated that soil organic carbon(SOC),total nitrogen(TN),total phosphorus(TP),and total potassium(TK)concentrations showed moderate variations,with coefficients of variance being 0.60,0.60,0.71,and 0.72,respectively.Moreover,they demonstrated positive spatial autocorrelations,with global Moran's indices being 0.68,0.77,0.64,and 0.68,respectively.However,local Moran's index values were low,indicating large spatial variations in soil nutrients.The best-fitting semi-variogram models for SOC,TN,TP,and TK concentrations were spherical,Gaussian,exponential,and exponential,respectively.According to the classification criteria of the Second National Soil Census in China,SOC and TN concentrations were relatively sufficient,with the proportions of rich and very rich levels being up to 90.9 and 96.0%,respectively.TP concentration was in the mediumdeficient level,with the areas of medium and deficient levels accounting for 33.7 and 30.1%of the total,respectively.TK concentration was deficient,with the cumulative area of extremely deficient,very deficient,and deficient levels accounting for 87.6%of the total area.Consequently,the terrestrial ecosystems in the study area were more vulnerable to soil P and K than soil N deficiencies.Furthermore,variance partitioning analysis of the influencing factors showed that,except for the interactions,the single effect of other soil properties accounted more for soil nutrient variations than spatial and environmental variables.These results will aid in the future management of terrestrial ecosystems.展开更多
The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-bas...The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-based observations remain insufficient to clearly reflect the characteristics of the region’s lithospheric magnetism.In this study,we evaluate the lithospheric magnetism of the Tibetan Plateau by using a 3D surface spline model based on observations from>200 newly constructed repeat stations(portable stations)to determine the spatial distribution of plateau geomagnetism,as well as its correlation with the tectonic features of the region.We analyze the relationships between M≥5 earthquakes and lithospheric magnetic field variations on the Tibetan Plateau and identify regions susceptible to strong earthquakes.We compare the geomagnetic results with those from an enhanced magnetic model(EMM2015)developed by the NGDC and provide insights into improving lithospheric magnetic field calculations in the Tibetan Plateau region.Further research reveals that these magnetic anomalies exhibit distinct differences from the magnetic-seismic correlation mechanisms observed in other tectonic settings;here,they are governed primarily by the combined effects of compressional magnetism,thermal magnetism,and deep thermal stress.This study provides new evidence of geomagnetic anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau,interprets them physically,and demonstrates their potential for identifying seismic hazard zones on the Plateau.展开更多
Dissecting quantitative traits into Mendelian factors is a great challenge in genetics.Apple fruit storability is a complex trait controlled by multi-genes with unequal effects.We previously identified62 quantitative ...Dissecting quantitative traits into Mendelian factors is a great challenge in genetics.Apple fruit storability is a complex trait controlled by multi-genes with unequal effects.We previously identified62 quantitative trait loci(QTLs)associated with apple fruit storability and genomics-assisted prediction(GAP)models were trained using 56 QTLbased markers.Here,three candidate genes,Md NAC83,Md BPM2,and Md RGLG3,were screened from the regions of QTLs with large G'value and large genetic effects.Both a 216-bp deletion and an SNP934 T/C at the promoter of Md NAC83 were associated with higher Md NAC83expression but an SNP388 G/A at the coding region significantly reduced the activity to activate the expression of the target genes Md ACO1,Md MANA3,and Md XTH28.Md BPM2 and Md RGLG3 participated in the ubiquitination of Md NAC83.SNP657 T/A of Md BPM2 and SNP167C/G of Md RGLG3 caused a reduction in the activity to ubiquitinate Md NAC83.By the addition of functional markers to the Geno Baits SNP array,the prediction accuracy of the updated GAP models increased to 0.7723/0.6231 and 0.5639/0.5345 for flesh firmness/crispness at harvest and flesh firmness/crispness retainability,respectively.The variation network involving eight simple Mendelian variations in six genes helps to gain insight into the molecular quantitative genetics,to improve breeding strategy,and to provide targets for future genome editing.展开更多
In this manuscript,we consider a non-autonomous dynamical system.Using the Carathéodory structure,we define a BS dimension on an arbitrary subset and obtain a Bowen’s equation that illustrates the relation of th...In this manuscript,we consider a non-autonomous dynamical system.Using the Carathéodory structure,we define a BS dimension on an arbitrary subset and obtain a Bowen’s equation that illustrates the relation of the BS dimension to the Pesin-Pitskel topological pressure given by Nazarian[24].Moreover,we establish a variational principle and an inverse variational principle for the BS dimension of non-autonomous dynamical systems.Finally,we also get an analogue of Billingsley’s theorem for the BS dimension of non-autonomous dynamical systems.展开更多
Prevention of biological invasion requires understanding how alien species invade native communities.Although studies have identified mechanisms that underlie plant invasion in some habitats,limited attention has focu...Prevention of biological invasion requires understanding how alien species invade native communities.Although studies have identified mechanisms that underlie plant invasion in some habitats,limited attention has focused on invasion patterns along elevational gradients.In this study,we asked which factors drive the global and regional distribution of the invasive plant Galinsoga quadriradiata along elevational gradients.To answer this question,we examined whether human activities(i.e.,roads)promote G.quadriradiata invasion,how seed dispersal-related traits of G.quadriradiata change along elevation gradients,and whether G.quadriradiata has adapted to high-elevation environments through phenotypic plasticity or genetic variation.On the global scale,we found that human activities and road density positively contribute to the G.quadriradiata expansion in mountainous areas.Field surveys in China revealed significant elevational differences in the seed dispersal traits of G.quadriradiata,with higher-elevation populations exhibiting lower dispersal ability and generally lower genetic diversity.Under common conditions,high-elevation populations showed higher leaf mass ratio but lower root mass ratio and reproductive allocation.This suggests that high-elevation environments create a barrier to dispersal for G.quadriradiata,and that G.quadriradiata has adapted phenotypically to these conditions.Our study indicates that the elevational invasion pattern of G.quadriradiata is shaped by multiple factors,particularly human activities and phenotypic adaptability.In addition,our finding that G.quadriradiata invasion at high elevations is not constrained by low genetic diversity indicates that monitoring and management of G.quadriradiata in mountainous areas should be strengthened.展开更多
Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the progressive degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons in the brainstem and spinal cord,leading to muscle weakness,para...Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the progressive degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons in the brainstem and spinal cord,leading to muscle weakness,paralysis,and respiratory failure (Morgan and Orrell,2016).展开更多
A new data assimilation method called the explicit four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) method is proposed. In this method, the singular value decomposition (SVD) is used to construct the orthogonal basis vectors from...A new data assimilation method called the explicit four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) method is proposed. In this method, the singular value decomposition (SVD) is used to construct the orthogonal basis vectors from a forecast ensemble in a 4D space. The basis vectors represent not only the spatial structure of the analysis variables but also the temporal evolution. After the analysis variables are ex-pressed by a truncated expansion of the basis vectors in the 4D space, the control variables in the cost function appear explicitly, so that the adjoint model, which is used to derive the gradient of cost func-tion with respect to the control variables, is no longer needed. The new technique significantly simpli-fies the data assimilation process. The advantage of the proposed method is demonstrated by several experiments using a shallow water numerical model and the results are compared with those of the conventional 4DVAR. It is shown that when the observation points are very dense, the conventional 4DVAR is better than the proposed method. However, when the observation points are sparse, the proposed method performs better. The sensitivity of the proposed method with respect to errors in the observations and the numerical model is lower than that of the conventional method.展开更多
A method has been presented to improve ensemble forecast by utilizing these initial members generated by four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VDA), to conquer limitation of those initial members generat...A method has been presented to improve ensemble forecast by utilizing these initial members generated by four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VDA), to conquer limitation of those initial members generated by Monte Carlo forecast (MCF) or lagged average forecast (LAF). This method possesses significant statistical characteristic of MCF, and by virtue of LAF that contains multi-time information and its initial members are harmonic with展开更多
基金sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant No.ATM0205599)the U.S. Offce of Navy Research under Grant N000140410471Dr. James A. Hansen was partially supported by US Offce of Naval Research (Grant No. N00014-06-1-0500)
文摘This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme （E4DVAR） benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence： the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41490644,41475101 and 41421005)the CAS Strategic Priority Project(the Western Pacific Ocean System+2 种基金Project Nos.XDA11010105,XDA11020306 and XDA11010301)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(Grant No.U1406401)the NSFC Innovative Group Grant(Project No.41421005)
文摘A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The ＂observation＂ of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a ＂truth＂ model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.
文摘A heavy rainfall event along the mei-yu front during 22-23 June 2002 was chosen for this study. To assess the impact of the routine and additional IOP (intensive observation period) radiosonde observations on the mesoscale heavy rainfall forecast, a series of four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation and model simulation experiments was conducted using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 and the MM5 4DVAR system. The effects of the intensive observations in the different areas on the heavy rainfall forecast were also investigated. The results showed that improvement of the forecast skill for mesoscale heavy rainfall intensity was possible from the assimilation of the IOP radiosonde observations. However, the impact of the IOP observations on the forecast of the rainfall pattern was not significant. Initial conditions obtained through the 4DVAR experiments with a 12-h assimilation window were capable of improving the 24-h forecast. The simulated results after the assimilation showed that it would be best to perform the intensive radiosonde observations in the upstream of the rainfall area and in the moisture passageway area at the same time. Initial conditions created by the 4DVAR led to the low-level moisture convergence over the rainfall area, enhanced frontogenesis and upward motion within the mei-yu front, and intensified middle- and high-level unstable stratification in front of the mei-yu front. Consequently, the heavy rainfall forecast was improved.
基金the National Basic Research Program (973 Program) (No.2010CB 951604)the China Meteorological Administration for the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (meteorology) [Grant No. GYHY(QX)200906009]+1 种基金the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (No. 2010AA012304)the LASG free exploration fund
文摘Accurate forecast of rainstorms associated with the mei-yu front has been an important issue for the Chinese economy and society. In July 1998 a heavy rainstorm hit the Yangzi River valley and received widespread attention from the public because it caused catastrophic damage in China. Several numerical studies have shown that many forecast models, including Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research’s fifth-generation mesoscale model （MM5）, failed to simulate the heavy precipitation over the Yangzi River valley. This study demonstrates that with the optimal initial conditions from the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation （DRP-4DVar） system, MM5 can successfully reproduce these observed rainfall amounts and can capture many important mesoscale features, including the southwestward shear line and the low-level jet stream. The study also indicates that the failure of previous forecasts can be mainly attributed to the lack of mesoscale details in the initial conditions of the models.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2017YFC1501803 and2018YFC1506903the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 91730304,41475021 and 41575026
文摘The four-dimensional variational assimilation(4D-Var)has been widely used in meteorological and oceanographic data assimilation.This method is usually implemented in the model space,known as primal approach(P4D-Var).Alternatively,physical space analysis system(4D-PSAS)is proposed to reduce the computation cost,in which the 4D-Var problem is solved in physical space(i.e.,observation space).In this study,the conjugate gradient(CG)algorithm,implemented in the 4D-PSAS system is evaluated and it is found that the non-monotonic change of the gradient norm of 4D-PSAS cost function causes artificial oscillations of cost function in the iteration process.The reason of non-monotonic variation of gradient norm in 4D-PSAS is then analyzed.In order to overcome the non-monotonic variation of gradient norm,a new algorithm,Minimum Residual(MINRES)algorithm,is implemented in the process of assimilation iteration in this study.Our experimental results show that the improved 4D-PSAS with the MINRES algorithm guarantees the monotonic reduction of gradient norm of cost function,greatly improves the convergence properties of 4D-PSAS as well,and significantly restrains the numerical noises associated with the traditional 4D-PSAS system.
文摘Forecasting convective storms using NWP models is an important goal and a highly active area of ongoing research. Skillful and reliable NWP of convective storms could allow for severe weather warnings with longer lead times, as opera- tional forecasters begin to incorporate convective-scale fore- casts into severe weather forecast operations （Stensrud et al., 2009, 2013）. This would then provide vulnerable individuals and industries with more time to seek shelter and/or mitigate the impact of severe weather hazards.
基金Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China for its support and guidance(Grant No.2018YFC0214100)。
文摘Aiming at the Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm proposed earlier,the observation error regularization factor is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy of the diffusion model,and an improved Four-Dimensional Variation source term inversion algorithm with observation error regularization(OER-4DVAR STI model)is formed.Firstly,by constructing the inversion process and basic model of OER-4DVAR STI model,its basic principle and logical structure are studied.Secondly,the observation error regularization factor estimation method based on Bayesian optimization is proposed,and the error factor is separated and optimized by two parameters:error statistical time and deviation degree.Finally,the scientific,feasible and advanced nature of the OER-4DVAR STI model are verified by numerical simulation and tracer test data.The experimental results show that OER-4DVAR STI model can better reverse calculate the hazard source term information under the conditions of high atmospheric stability and flat underlying surface.Compared with the previous inversion algorithm,the source intensity estimation accuracy of OER-4DVAR STI model is improved by about 46.97%,and the source location estimation accuracy is improved by about 26.72%.
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201506003)
文摘Minimization algorithms are singular components in four-dimensional variational data assimilation(4DVar).In this paper,the convergence and application of the conjugate gradient algorithm(CGA),which is based on the Lanczos iterative algorithm and the Hessian matrix derived from tangent linear and adjoint models using a non-hydrostatic framework,are investigated in the 4DVar minimization.First,the influence of the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization of the Lanczos vector on the convergence of the Lanczos algorithm is studied.The results show that the Lanczos algorithm without orthogonalization fails to converge after the ninth iteration in the 4DVar minimization,while the orthogonalized Lanczos algorithm converges stably.Second,the convergence and computational efficiency of the CGA and quasi-Newton method in batch cycling assimilation experiments are compared on the 4DVar platform of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES).The CGA is 40%more computationally efficient than the quasi-Newton method,although the equivalent analysis results can be obtained by using either the CGA or the quasi-Newton method.Thus,the CGA based on Lanczos iterations is better for solving the optimization problems in the GRAPES 4DVar system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41075062,91125016)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grants Nos.2010CB951001,2010CB428403)
文摘Seasonal and interannual changes in the Earth's gravity field are mainly due to mass exchange among the atmosphere,ocean,and continental water sources.The terrestrial water storage changes,detected as gravity changes by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) satellites,are mainly caused by precipitation,evapotranspiration,river transportation and downward infiltration processes.In this study,a land data assimilation system LDAS-G was developed to assimilate the GRACE terrestrial water storage(TWS) data into the Community Land Model(CLM3.5) using the POD-based ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation method PODEn4 DVar,disaggregating the GRACE large-scale terrestrial water storage changes vertically and in time,and placing constraints on the simulation of vertical hydrological variables to improve land surface hydrological simulations.The ideal experiments conducted at a single point and assimilation experiments carried out over China by the LDAS-G data assimilation system showed that the system developed in this study improved the simulation of land surface hydrological variables,indicating the potential of GRACE data assimilation in large-scale land surface hydrological research and applications.
基金Project supported in part by Beijing Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.1232025)Peng Huanwu Visiting Pro-fessor Program,and Academy for Multidisciplinary Studies,Capital Normal University.
文摘Replicating the chaotic characteristics inherent in nonlinear dynamical systems via machine learning(ML)is a key challenge in this rapidly advancing interdisciplinary field.In this work,we explore the potential of variational quantum circuits(VQC)for learning the stochastic properties of classical nonlinear dynamical systems.Specifically,we focus on the one-and two-dimensional logistic maps,which,while simple,remain under-explored in the context of learning dynamical characteristics.Our findings reveal that,even for such simple dynamical systems,accurately replicating longterm characteristics is hindered by a pronounced sensitivity to overfitting.While increasing the parameter complexity of the ML model typically enhances short-term prediction accuracy,it also leads to a degradation in the model’s ability to replicate long-term characteristics,primarily due to the detrimental effects of overfitting on generalization power.By comparing the VQC with two widely recognized classical ML techniques,which are long short-term memory(LSTM)networks for timeseries processing and reservoir computing,we demonstrate that VQC outperforms these methods in terms of replicating long-term characteristics.Our results suggest that for the ML of dynamics,it is demanded to develop more compact and efficient models(such as VQC)rather than more complicated and large-scale ones.
基金supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31811530297 and 32170217).
文摘Plastome variation,including single spontaneous nucleotide substitutions and single insertions/deletions,is the major source of leaf variegation in plants.Additionally,one recent study has showed that a simple plastome structural variation,which is induced by one pair of small inverted repeats,can also result in leaf variegation.Here we show a complex plastome structural variation caused by intermolecular and intramolecular recombination across three pairs of small inverted repeats accounts for leaf variegation in a widely cultivated shrub Heptapleurum ellipticum(Araliaceae).This plastome structural variation contains two deletions and two duplications,resulting in dramatic expansion of IRs,substantial contraction of LSC and loss of 11 genes that essential for photosynthesis.Plastome heteroplasmy was detected in both green and albino sectors of variegated leaves.Relative to green sectors,albino sectors in the variegated leaves exhibit significantly reduced expression for the 11 genes lost in the mutated plastome as well as 26 other genes,but significantly increased expression for one gene related to translation apparatus.Optical and transmission electron microscopy observations showed that mesophyll cells of albino sectors possess plastids lacking grana lamellae,which likely carry the mutated plastome and contribute to albinism.In both sectors,the first layer of spongy mesophyll cells beneath the lower epidermis contains normal chloroplasts,suggesting periclinal division of the lower epidermis during development.Our study demonstrates that multiple small repeats can collectively mediate intra-and inter-molecular recombination in plastome and offers a new mechanism accounting for leaf variegation in plants.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42027804,41775026,and 41075012)。
文摘Cirrus clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system.We investigated the spatiotemporal variations of cirrus over the South China Sea(SCS)using satellite data(MOD08,MYD08,CALIPSO)and reanalysis data(MERRA-2)from March 2007 to February 2015(eight years).The horizontal distribution reveals lower cirrus fraction values in the northern SCS and higher values in the southern region,with minima observed in March and April and maxima sequentially occurring in August(northern SCS,NSCS),September(middle SCS,MSCS),and December(southern SCS,SSCS).Vertically,the cirrus fraction peaks in summer and reaches its lowest levels in spring.Opaque cirrus dominates during summer in the NSCS and MSCS,comprising 53.6%and 55.9%,respectively,while the SSCS exhibits a higher frequency of opaque cirrus relative to other cloud types.Subvisible cirrus clouds have the lowest frequency year-round,whereas thin cirrus is most prominent in winter in the NSCS(46.3%)and in spring in the MSCS(45.3%).A case study from September 2021 further explores the influence of ice crystal habits on brightness temperature(BT)over the SCS.Simulations utilizing five ice crystal shapes from the ARTS DDA(Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator Discrete Dipole Approximation)database and the RTTOV 12.4 radiative transfer model reveal that the 8-column-aggregate shape best represents BT in the NSCS and SSCS,while the large-block-aggregate shape performs better in the SSCS.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2344201 and 42101316)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China(2022JJ40866)the Outstanding Youth Project of Education Bureau of Hunan Province,China(20B613)。
文摘Understanding the spatial distributions and corresponding variation mechanisms of key soil nutrients in fragile karst ecosystems can assist in promoting sustainable development.However,due to the implementation of ecological restoration initiatives such as land-use conversions,novel changes in the spatial characteristics of soil nutrients remain unknown.To address this gap,we explored nutrient variations and the drivers of the variation in the 0–15 cm topsoil layer using a regional-scale sampling method in a typical karst area in northwest Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Southwest China.Descriptive statistics,geostatistics,and spatial analysis were used to assess the soil nutrient variability.The results indicated that soil organic carbon(SOC),total nitrogen(TN),total phosphorus(TP),and total potassium(TK)concentrations showed moderate variations,with coefficients of variance being 0.60,0.60,0.71,and 0.72,respectively.Moreover,they demonstrated positive spatial autocorrelations,with global Moran's indices being 0.68,0.77,0.64,and 0.68,respectively.However,local Moran's index values were low,indicating large spatial variations in soil nutrients.The best-fitting semi-variogram models for SOC,TN,TP,and TK concentrations were spherical,Gaussian,exponential,and exponential,respectively.According to the classification criteria of the Second National Soil Census in China,SOC and TN concentrations were relatively sufficient,with the proportions of rich and very rich levels being up to 90.9 and 96.0%,respectively.TP concentration was in the mediumdeficient level,with the areas of medium and deficient levels accounting for 33.7 and 30.1%of the total,respectively.TK concentration was deficient,with the cumulative area of extremely deficient,very deficient,and deficient levels accounting for 87.6%of the total area.Consequently,the terrestrial ecosystems in the study area were more vulnerable to soil P and K than soil N deficiencies.Furthermore,variance partitioning analysis of the influencing factors showed that,except for the interactions,the single effect of other soil properties accounted more for soil nutrient variations than spatial and environmental variables.These results will aid in the future management of terrestrial ecosystems.
基金supported by the CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program and Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition Research Program(2019QZKK0708)as well as the Basic Research Program of Qinghai Province:Lithospheric Geomagnetic Field of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Relationship with Strong Earthquakes(2021-ZJ-969Q).
文摘The National Geophysical Data Center(NGDC)of the United States has collected aeromagnetic data for input into a series of geomagnetic models to improve model resolution;however,in the Tibetan Plateau region,ground-based observations remain insufficient to clearly reflect the characteristics of the region’s lithospheric magnetism.In this study,we evaluate the lithospheric magnetism of the Tibetan Plateau by using a 3D surface spline model based on observations from>200 newly constructed repeat stations(portable stations)to determine the spatial distribution of plateau geomagnetism,as well as its correlation with the tectonic features of the region.We analyze the relationships between M≥5 earthquakes and lithospheric magnetic field variations on the Tibetan Plateau and identify regions susceptible to strong earthquakes.We compare the geomagnetic results with those from an enhanced magnetic model(EMM2015)developed by the NGDC and provide insights into improving lithospheric magnetic field calculations in the Tibetan Plateau region.Further research reveals that these magnetic anomalies exhibit distinct differences from the magnetic-seismic correlation mechanisms observed in other tectonic settings;here,they are governed primarily by the combined effects of compressional magnetism,thermal magnetism,and deep thermal stress.This study provides new evidence of geomagnetic anomalies on the Tibetan Plateau,interprets them physically,and demonstrates their potential for identifying seismic hazard zones on the Plateau.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32202431)the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFD1200503)+2 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2022M713408)the Earmarked Fund for CARS-27the Key Research and Development Program of Hebei(21326308D)。
文摘Dissecting quantitative traits into Mendelian factors is a great challenge in genetics.Apple fruit storability is a complex trait controlled by multi-genes with unequal effects.We previously identified62 quantitative trait loci(QTLs)associated with apple fruit storability and genomics-assisted prediction(GAP)models were trained using 56 QTLbased markers.Here,three candidate genes,Md NAC83,Md BPM2,and Md RGLG3,were screened from the regions of QTLs with large G'value and large genetic effects.Both a 216-bp deletion and an SNP934 T/C at the promoter of Md NAC83 were associated with higher Md NAC83expression but an SNP388 G/A at the coding region significantly reduced the activity to activate the expression of the target genes Md ACO1,Md MANA3,and Md XTH28.Md BPM2 and Md RGLG3 participated in the ubiquitination of Md NAC83.SNP657 T/A of Md BPM2 and SNP167C/G of Md RGLG3 caused a reduction in the activity to ubiquitinate Md NAC83.By the addition of functional markers to the Geno Baits SNP array,the prediction accuracy of the updated GAP models increased to 0.7723/0.6231 and 0.5639/0.5345 for flesh firmness/crispness at harvest and flesh firmness/crispness retainability,respectively.The variation network involving eight simple Mendelian variations in six genes helps to gain insight into the molecular quantitative genetics,to improve breeding strategy,and to provide targets for future genome editing.
基金supported by the NSFC(12461012)and the NSF of Chongqing(CSTB2024NSCQ-MSX1246).
文摘In this manuscript,we consider a non-autonomous dynamical system.Using the Carathéodory structure,we define a BS dimension on an arbitrary subset and obtain a Bowen’s equation that illustrates the relation of the BS dimension to the Pesin-Pitskel topological pressure given by Nazarian[24].Moreover,we establish a variational principle and an inverse variational principle for the BS dimension of non-autonomous dynamical systems.Finally,we also get an analogue of Billingsley’s theorem for the BS dimension of non-autonomous dynamical systems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32271584 and 31600445)the Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China(2020JM-286)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(GK202103072,GK202103073)the National College Students'Innovative Entrepreneurial Training Plan Program(202310718085)Special Research Project in Philosophy and Social Sciences of Shaanxi Province(2022HZ1795).
文摘Prevention of biological invasion requires understanding how alien species invade native communities.Although studies have identified mechanisms that underlie plant invasion in some habitats,limited attention has focused on invasion patterns along elevational gradients.In this study,we asked which factors drive the global and regional distribution of the invasive plant Galinsoga quadriradiata along elevational gradients.To answer this question,we examined whether human activities(i.e.,roads)promote G.quadriradiata invasion,how seed dispersal-related traits of G.quadriradiata change along elevation gradients,and whether G.quadriradiata has adapted to high-elevation environments through phenotypic plasticity or genetic variation.On the global scale,we found that human activities and road density positively contribute to the G.quadriradiata expansion in mountainous areas.Field surveys in China revealed significant elevational differences in the seed dispersal traits of G.quadriradiata,with higher-elevation populations exhibiting lower dispersal ability and generally lower genetic diversity.Under common conditions,high-elevation populations showed higher leaf mass ratio but lower root mass ratio and reproductive allocation.This suggests that high-elevation environments create a barrier to dispersal for G.quadriradiata,and that G.quadriradiata has adapted phenotypically to these conditions.Our study indicates that the elevational invasion pattern of G.quadriradiata is shaped by multiple factors,particularly human activities and phenotypic adaptability.In addition,our finding that G.quadriradiata invasion at high elevations is not constrained by low genetic diversity indicates that monitoring and management of G.quadriradiata in mountainous areas should be strengthened.
文摘Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the progressive degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons in the brainstem and spinal cord,leading to muscle weakness,paralysis,and respiratory failure (Morgan and Orrell,2016).
基金the 973 Program (Grant No. 2004CB418305)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40575049)
文摘A new data assimilation method called the explicit four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) method is proposed. In this method, the singular value decomposition (SVD) is used to construct the orthogonal basis vectors from a forecast ensemble in a 4D space. The basis vectors represent not only the spatial structure of the analysis variables but also the temporal evolution. After the analysis variables are ex-pressed by a truncated expansion of the basis vectors in the 4D space, the control variables in the cost function appear explicitly, so that the adjoint model, which is used to derive the gradient of cost func-tion with respect to the control variables, is no longer needed. The new technique significantly simpli-fies the data assimilation process. The advantage of the proposed method is demonstrated by several experiments using a shallow water numerical model and the results are compared with those of the conventional 4DVAR. It is shown that when the observation points are very dense, the conventional 4DVAR is better than the proposed method. However, when the observation points are sparse, the proposed method performs better. The sensitivity of the proposed method with respect to errors in the observations and the numerical model is lower than that of the conventional method.
文摘A method has been presented to improve ensemble forecast by utilizing these initial members generated by four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VDA), to conquer limitation of those initial members generated by Monte Carlo forecast (MCF) or lagged average forecast (LAF). This method possesses significant statistical characteristic of MCF, and by virtue of LAF that contains multi-time information and its initial members are harmonic with
