The challenge of establishing top-down constraints for regional emissions of fossil fuel CO_(2)(FFCO_(2))arises from the difficulty in distinguishing between atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations released from fossil fuels...The challenge of establishing top-down constraints for regional emissions of fossil fuel CO_(2)(FFCO_(2))arises from the difficulty in distinguishing between atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations released from fossil fuels and background variability,particularly owing to the influence of terrestrial biospheric fluxes.This necessitates the development of a regional inversion methodology based on atmospheric CO_(2)observations to verify bottom-up estimations independently.This study presents a promising approach for estimating China's FFCO_(2)emissions by incorporating the model residual errors(MREs)of the column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO_(2)(XCO_(2))from FFCO_(2)emissions(MREff)retained in the analysis of natural flux optimization.China's FFCO_(2)emissions during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 are estimated using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model.The relationship between the MREff and FFCO_(2)is determined using the model based on a regional FFCO_(2)anomaly suggested by posterior NOx emissions from air-quality data assimilation.The MREff is typically one-tenth in magnitude,but some positively skewed outliers exceed 1 ppm because the prior emissions lack lockdown impacts,thereby exerting considerable observation forcing given the satellite retrieval uncertainties.We initialize the FFCO_(2)with posterior NOx emissions and optimize the colinear emission ratio.Synthetic data experiments demonstrate that this approach reduces the FFCO_(2)bias to less than 10%.The real-data experiments estimate 19%lower FFCO_(2)with GOSAT XCO_(2)and 26%lower with OCO-2 XCO_(2)than the bottom-up estimations.This study proves the feasibility of our regional FFCO_(2)inversion,highlighting the importance of addressing the outlier behaviors observed in satellite XCO_(2)retrievals.展开更多
Detailed projections of the Former Soviet Union(FSU)fossil fuel production has been created.Russian production has been modelled at the region(oblast)level where possible.The projections were made using the Geologic R...Detailed projections of the Former Soviet Union(FSU)fossil fuel production has been created.Russian production has been modelled at the region(oblast)level where possible.The projections were made using the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model(GeRS-DeMo).Low,Best Guess and High scenarios were created.FSU fossil fuels are projected to peak between 2027 and 2087 with the range due to spread of Ultimately Recoverable Resources(URR)values used.The Best Guess(BG)scenario anticipates FSU will peak in 2087 with production over 170 EJ per year.The FSU projections were combined with rest of the world projections(Mohr et al.2015b),the emissions from the High scenario for the world are similar to the IPCC A1 AIM scenario.展开更多
This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil productio...This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year(or 9.6 EJ/year),in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around350 Bcm/year(or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year(or 91.9 EJ/year)around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI(energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.展开更多
Under the context of carbon neutrality of China,it is urgent to shift our energy supply towards cleaner fuels as well as to reduce the greenhouse gas emission.Currently,coal is the main fossil fuel energy source of Ch...Under the context of carbon neutrality of China,it is urgent to shift our energy supply towards cleaner fuels as well as to reduce the greenhouse gas emission.Currently,coal is the main fossil fuel energy source of China.The country is striving hard to replace it with methane,a cleaner fossil fuel.Although China has rich geological resources of methane as coal bed methane(CBM)reserves,it is quite challenging to utilize them due to low concentration.The CBM is however mainly emitted directly to atmosphere during coal mining,causing waste of the resource and huge contribution to greenhouse effect.The recent work by Yang et al.demonstrated a potential solution to extract low concentration methane selectively from CBM through using MOF materials as sorbents.Such kind of materials and associated separation technology are promising to reduce greenhouse gas emission and promote the methane production capability,which would contribute to carbon neutrality in dual pathways.展开更多
Dramatic fall in costs of renewable energy in the last 24 months has not only accelerated the replacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy in electricity generation. The low cost renewable electricity is now starti...Dramatic fall in costs of renewable energy in the last 24 months has not only accelerated the replacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy in electricity generation. The low cost renewable electricity is now starting to replace fossil fuels in other sectors. One reason is that renewable electricity is now cheaper per unit energy than oil, about the same price as fossil methan but, still, more expensive than coal. Another reason is that electricity often offer other opportunities, such as cheaper transport, better control, higher energy efficiency in final production of energy services and lower local environmental costs.展开更多
Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have greatly increased with the increased use of fossil fuels, leading to air pollution and global warming. We present the researches on air pollution an...Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have greatly increased with the increased use of fossil fuels, leading to air pollution and global warming. We present the researches on air pollution and the use of fossil fuels in north China, the economic zone of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and the economic zone of the Pearl River Delta region. Researches indicate that the use of fossil fuels has been the main source of air pollution in the three regions. We present researches on global mean surface temperature (GMST) with the rise of carbon dioxide concentration (CDC) and global fossil fuel consumption (GFFC);researches indicate that the rise in CDC can account for 91% of the rise in GMST, and GFFC can account for 90% of the rise in GMST. We analyse the factors that bring about air pollution and temperature rise, they are the use of fossil fuels and deforestation. It is critically important to replace fossil fuels with clean energy, but renewable energy has also disadvantages. The world faces difficulties in solving air pollution and global warming, so governments of the world should cooperate to solve the technologies of clean energy, and preserve the forests and the natural environment.展开更多
We have found some fluorescence characteristics of fossil fuels based on the contour maps of the three dimensional fluorescence spectra of their non quenching samples. The common fluorescence characteristic is t...We have found some fluorescence characteristics of fossil fuels based on the contour maps of the three dimensional fluorescence spectra of their non quenching samples. The common fluorescence characteristic is that the main peaks of various fossil fuels are located in the vicinity of excitation/emission wavelength pair 228nm/340nm.The diversity of fluorescence characteristics can be represented with several indexes α,K,F and R ,and these indexes provide measurable parameters for division of fluorescence fingerprints of fossil fuels. The fluorescence fingerprints of fossil fuels can be divided into five models named O,B,Q,P and G that are corresponding to condensate oil, light oil, heavy oil, coal and natural gas, respectively. The technique has a potential application in study of environment pollution on crude oil and geochemical exploration of fossil fuels.展开更多
Examining the contribution of fossil fuel CO_(2) to the total CO_(2) changes in the atmosphere is of primary concern due to its alarming levels of fossil fuel emissions over the globe,specifically developing countries...Examining the contribution of fossil fuel CO_(2) to the total CO_(2) changes in the atmosphere is of primary concern due to its alarming levels of fossil fuel emissions over the globe,specifically developing countries.Atmospheric radiocarbon represents an important observational constraint and utilized to trace fossil fuel derived CO_(2)(CO_(2ff))in the atmosphere.For the first time,we have presented a detailed analysis on the spatial distribution of fossil fuel derived CO_(2)(CO_(2ff))over India using radiocarbon(Δ14C)measurements during three-year period.Analysis shows that theΔ14C values are varying between 29.33‰ to-34.06‰ across India in the year 2017,where highest value belongs to a location from Gujarat while lowest value belongs to a location from Chhattisgarh.Based on the14C patterns,spatial distributions of CO_(2ff) mole fractions have been determined over India and the calculated values of CO_(2ff) mole fractions are varying between 4.85 ppm to 26.59 ppm across India.It is also noticed that the highest CO_(2ff) mole fraction is observed as 26.59 ppm from a site in Chhattisgarh.CO_(2ff) mole fraction values from four high altitude sites are found to be varied between 4.85 ppm to 14.87 ppm.Effect of sampling different crop plants from the same growing season and different crop plant organs(grains,leaves,stems)on theΔ14C and CO_(2ff) have been studied.Annual and intra seasonal variations in theΔ14C and CO_(2ff) mole fractions have also been analyzed from a rural location(Dholpur,Rajasthan).展开更多
Rising greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change, and the world’s focus has shifted to the need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. There has been a rise in the published literature on the utilization o...Rising greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change, and the world’s focus has shifted to the need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. There has been a rise in the published literature on the utilization of crops for bioenergy production in Louisiana. However, very few scholarly documents have used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map the distribution of potential bioenergy crops in Louisiana. This study seeks to fill the void by evaluating the potential of bioenergy crops in Louisiana for energy production using GIS. Given this objective, the agricultural census data for 1999, 2009, 2019, and 2020 obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture were used in the analysis. The quantities of various crops produced in the state were loaded into an attribute table and joined to a shapefile using ArcGIS software. The symbology tool’s graduated option was used to create five maps representing each of the bioenergy crops in Louisiana. The findings of the GIS analysis show that some of the parishes, such as Franklin produced the most bushels of corn (13,795,416), Iberia produced the most tons of sugarcane (1,697,980), East Carroll produced the most bushels of soybean (8,237,991), Tensas harvested the most bales of cotton (80,898) and Avoyelles produced the most bushels of sorghum (630,694). The abundance and availability of crops as raw materials for energy production will translate into lower prices in terms of energy use, making bioenergy crops a promising alternative to fossil fuels. In addition, gasoline price data from 1993-2022 was obtained from U.S. Energy Information Administration. A regression model for the average annual gasoline price over the years was constructed. The results show that the average annual gasoline price variation with respect to years is statistically significant (p 0.05). This suggests that gasoline prices will generally rise despite a price drop over the years. The paper concludes by outlining policy recommendations in the form of assessing the availability and viability of other crop types, such as wheat, oats, and rice, for energy production in the state.展开更多
Mass balance equations can be used to quantify the level of fossil carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>)<sub>ff</sub> at a given site by using samples of tree leaves or tree rings. These sites are of...Mass balance equations can be used to quantify the level of fossil carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>)<sub>ff</sub> at a given site by using samples of tree leaves or tree rings. These sites are often densely populated and highly industrialized areas. In this case, in addition to the natural carbon dioxide level of the site, there are several other components that are added to it. The approaches we propose in this paper are based on the isotopic fractionation of carbon and the laws of matter conservation. Mathematical equations are derived from this and we propose approaches to establish them. Our method has allowed us to come to the conclusion of the relationship that is already found in literature. But we term this relationship in another way by introducing the fraction of carbon modern F and the proportion of CO<sub>2</sub> derived from fossil fuels, which will be noted (S)<sub>ff</sub> for the following. As an indicator of the Suess Effect, we have calculated these values in our different sites. Wooded areas sites which are located in urban areas have higher value of proportion of fossil fuel <span style="white-space:normal;">(S)</span><sub style="white-space:normal;">ff</sub> .展开更多
A risk in the prices of fossil fuels is a major concern to importing countries of them. This study analyzes the risk of an increase in the cost for Japanese electric utility sector during the period 1978-2007 consider...A risk in the prices of fossil fuels is a major concern to importing countries of them. This study analyzes the risk of an increase in the cost for Japanese electric utility sector during the period 1978-2007 considering the uncertainty in the prices of fossil fuels. The mean-semivariance model, which uses an upper semivariance as an index of the risk, is adopted for the purpose. The result confirms that the semivariance is the better index of the risk than the variance. Furether, the semivariance is decomposed into two factors; the risk caused by price changes in an individual fossil fuel source and the risk caused by correlations among the changes in the prices of fossil fuel sources. The former has been kept at a low level as it appears to be easy to estimate, while the latter has not been maintained at the lowest level as it appears to be difficult to estimate. The Japanese electric utility sector followed the minimum-risk fossil fuel mix up until 2001, but discontinued the same post 2001.展开更多
China has a huge demand for energy.Under the present energy structure of rich coal,lean oil,less gas,limited and low-rising rate renewable energy,discussion focus is now on the high-efficient mining of coal as well as...China has a huge demand for energy.Under the present energy structure of rich coal,lean oil,less gas,limited and low-rising rate renewable energy,discussion focus is now on the high-efficient mining of coal as well as its clean-and-low-carbon use.In view of this,based on an analysis of the problems in the coal chemical industry and the present coal utilization ways such as Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle(IGCC),this paper proposes that underground coal gasification(UCG)technology is a realistic choice.By virtue of its advantages in many aspects such as safety&environment,integrated use of superior resources,economic feasibility,etc.this technology can serve as the front-end support and guarantee for coal chemical industry and IGCC.Under the present situation,the following proposals were presented to promote the development of this technology.First,R&D of technical products should be strengthened,a comprehensive feasibility study assessment system should be established,and the relevant criteria in the industry should be formulated.Second,precise market positioning of UCG products should be made with much concern on the integrated economic indicators of each product's complete flow scheme,following the principle of“Technical Feasibility First,Economic Optimization Followed”.Third,a perfect operation and management pattern should be established with strict control over high-efficient,environmentally-friendly,safe,harmonious&compact objectives in the whole industry chain.In conclusion,to realize the large-scale UCG commercial production will strongly promote the optimization and innovation of fossil fuels supply-side economics in China.展开更多
In this work, by using an indirect method based on the correspondence between the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere and the quantity of fossil fuel in the Earth, the resources of fossil fuels were evaluated to be abo...In this work, by using an indirect method based on the correspondence between the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere and the quantity of fossil fuel in the Earth, the resources of fossil fuels were evaluated to be about 1.9 × 1016 ton. Unluckily, only a small part of these fuels is easily accessible. Nevertheless, their quantity is so high that it is reasonable to assume that fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy scene for several years. The extensive use of fossil fuels alters the ratio between oxygen and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The effects of this change are however so slow that they become important only on the geological time scale.展开更多
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the current energy landscape and the imperative transition toward renewable energy.It begins with an overview of current energy sources and trends,highlighting the dispa...This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the current energy landscape and the imperative transition toward renewable energy.It begins with an overview of current energy sources and trends,highlighting the disparity between supply and increasing demand.Adverse impacts of reliance on fossil fuels such as environmental degradation,economic volatility,and health hazards underscore the urgent need for a transition.The study then explores the vast potential of renewable energy sources(RES)such as solar,wind,hydrogen,and hydro,emphasizing their feasibility in the Southern African context.The positive impacts of integrating renewables are examined,including reduced greenhouse gas emissions,enhanced energy security,and economic diversification.Through case studies of regional examples,the success and failures of transitioning efforts are analyzed,providing valuable insights into best practices and pitfalls.The study identifies significant challenges in transitioning,particularly in grid-tied and off-grid scenarios,and discusses infrastructural,financial,and regulatory obstacles.The recommendations section outlines strategic steps for achieving a feasible transition,proposing either a full transition or specific percentages of renewable energy integration to meet energy demands.In conclusion,the study emphasizes the critical importance of adopting these strategies for sustainable development and global climate goals,advocating for continuous innovation and localized solutions to maximize the benefits of renewable energy.Key findings are that the environmental and economic effects of fossil fuel usage strain economies by increasing fossil fuel subsidies.RES are abundant in the Southern African region,and some projects have already been successfully implemented,especially in South Africa.Economic growth and technological advancement are some of the benefits of fully transitioning to renewables,but lack of skilled labor,infrastructure,necessary technology,and most importantly,high capital requirements,etc.,are some challenges being faced.Hence,the need for regional cooperation,policy frameworks,and infrastructure enhancement,and investment mobilization for an accelerated transition.展开更多
Climate change requires an immediate transition from fossil fuels to clean energy sources.Although hydrogen is considered a future energy source,over 90%of hydrogen is currently produced from fossil fuels,and large-sc...Climate change requires an immediate transition from fossil fuels to clean energy sources.Although hydrogen is considered a future energy source,over 90%of hydrogen is currently produced from fossil fuels,and large-scale renewable-fed hydrogen processes are limited by current technologies and economic processes.Therefore,hydrogen production from fossil fuels is a significant topic,particularly if fossil fuel-fed hydrogen production and utilization can be absolutely carbon-free.For the first time,this review critically discusses and analyses the current advances and fundamentals of fossil fuel dehydrogenation from the perspective of techno-economic-environmental assessments while considering all potential fossil resources and hydrogen technology.This review concludes that the preference of fossil fuels for any hydrogen production technology is as follows:fossil gas>heavy fossil liquid>light fossil liquid>fossil minerals.Thermo-catalytic hydrocarbon decomposition can outperform most other hydrocarbon reforming and pyrolysis processes owing to its energy efficiency,economic effectiveness,and environmental friendliness.Further,we explore potentially new“green hydrogen”technology and confirm that fossil fuels could be completely decarbonized throughout the full-chain stages from exploration to production and consumption.Overall,this work reveals that fossil fuels can be utilized completely carbon-free and provides technical support for future fossil fuel dehydrogenation and energy decarbonization in academic research,industrial practice,and governmental strategies.展开更多
The use of fossil fuels has led to global warming and air pollution,the transi-tion from fossil fuel to clean energy is necessary for human society to achieve sustainable development.But there are challenges in the tr...The use of fossil fuels has led to global warming and air pollution,the transi-tion from fossil fuel to clean energy is necessary for human society to achieve sustainable development.But there are challenges in the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy:1)Fossil fuels remain the primary energy for most coun-tries,more than 80%of primary energy consumption come from the use of fossil fuels;2)Upfront cost and intermittence are shortcomings that influence the large-scale application of renewable energy,hydrogen is not yet fully ma-ture in terms of technology and economy;3)Continuous deforestation re-duces the capability of the environment to turn CO_(2) into wood and leads to the rise of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases;and 4)Overpopu-lation and continuous growth of human population in developing countries cause the continuous increase of fossil fuel use and deforestation.If people do not take effective policies to get out of this predicament,global warming and air pollution will continue and become worse.展开更多
This article addresses the gap in comprehensive studies on the impact of climate change policies on the built heritage of greenhouse gas emitting industries,focusing on the preservation of fossil fuel power stations(F...This article addresses the gap in comprehensive studies on the impact of climate change policies on the built heritage of greenhouse gas emitting industries,focusing on the preservation of fossil fuel power stations(FFPSs)in Southwestern Europe.Through a cultural policy review and an extensive survey of FFPSs across Spain,France,Portugal,Italy,Gibraltar,Malta,Monaco,and the Vatican City,the study examines their conservation status and explores heritage-related concerns arising from their closure due to decarbonisation initiatives.The methodology combines the construction of a geo-referenced database using historical references with a multilingual review of heritage literature,administrative reports,and corporate documentation on industrial heritage management and decarbonisation policies.Findings reveal that the preservation of FFPSs affected by decarbonisation programmes is hindered by limited recognition of their cultural values,with economic factors further impeding efforts to prevent demolition and promote conservation.The discussion highlights disparities in the attention given to FFPSs:reused facilities,predominantly located in urban areas and dating to the first half of the 20th century or earlier,contrast sharply with those built in rural or isolated regions since the mid-20th century which face greater conflicts when proposed as heritage assets.This study underscores the challenges and inequities in preserving FFPSs as part of the industrial built heritage affected by decarbonisation policies.展开更多
Developing an anthropogenic carbon dioxides(CO_(2))emissions monitoring and verification support(MVS)capacity is essential to support the Global Stocktake(GST)and ratchet up Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs).T...Developing an anthropogenic carbon dioxides(CO_(2))emissions monitoring and verification support(MVS)capacity is essential to support the Global Stocktake(GST)and ratchet up Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs).The 2019 IPCC refinement proposes top-down inversed CO_(2)emissions,primarily from fossil fuel(FFCO_(2)),as a viable emission dataset.Despite substantial progress in directly inferring FFCO_(2)emissions from CO_(2)observations,substantial challenges remain,particularly in distinguishing local CO_(2)enhancements from the high background due to the long atmospheric lifetime.Alternatively,using short-lived and co-emitted nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2))as a proxy in FFCO_(2)emission inversion has gained prominence.This methodology is broadly categorized into plume-based and emission ratios(ERs)-based inversion methods.In the plume-based methods,NO_(2)observations act as locators,constraints,and validators for deciphering CO_(2)plumes downwind of sources,typically at point source and city scales.The ERs-based inversion approach typically consists of two steps:inferring NO_(2)-based nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))emissions and converting NO_(x)to CO_(2)emissions using CO_(2)-to-NO_(x)ERs.While integrating NO_(2)observations into FFCO_(2)emission inversion offers advantages over the direct CO_(2)-based methods,uncertainties persist,including both structural and data-related uncertainties.Addressing these uncertainties is a primary focus for future research,which includes deploying nextgeneration satellites and developing advanced inversion systems.Besides,data caveats are necessary when releasing data to users to prevent potential misuse.Advancing NO_(2)-based CO_(2)emission inversion requires interdisciplinary collaboration across multiple communities of remote sensing,emission inventory,transport model improvement,and atmospheric inversion algorithm development.展开更多
In this article, we calculate China's Mainland’s CO2 emission of fossil fuel consumption from 1991 to 2010 following the apparent consumption method recommend by IPCC： （i） the scale of CO2 emissions has increa...In this article, we calculate China's Mainland’s CO2 emission of fossil fuel consumption from 1991 to 2010 following the apparent consumption method recommend by IPCC： （i） the scale of CO2 emissions has increased nearly to 4 times as that in 1991; （ii） coal consumption constitutes the highest proportion due to the richness of coal resources in China; （iii） per capita CO2 emission has increased from 1.98 to 5.57 t CO2 ; （iv） carbon emission intensity declined significantly from 6.66 to 1.07 kg CO2 USD -1 , but recently it tends to be stable; and （v） regional develop gaps remain in China's Mainland, for according to the provincial data, in many developing regions economic increase over-reliance on fossil fuel consumption. China has made the promises and already taken actions to deal with the high carbon emission. Comprehensively considering the sustainability of development and the uncertainties remaining in global climate change, healthier structures of industry, intensive usage of fossil fuel, and a more balanced development pattern among the southern, central and western China should be put more emphasis.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan(Grant No.2023YFB3907405)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175132)the Chinese Academy of Sciences Project for Young Scientists in Basic Research(Grant No.YSBR-037)。
文摘The challenge of establishing top-down constraints for regional emissions of fossil fuel CO_(2)(FFCO_(2))arises from the difficulty in distinguishing between atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations released from fossil fuels and background variability,particularly owing to the influence of terrestrial biospheric fluxes.This necessitates the development of a regional inversion methodology based on atmospheric CO_(2)observations to verify bottom-up estimations independently.This study presents a promising approach for estimating China's FFCO_(2)emissions by incorporating the model residual errors(MREs)of the column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO_(2)(XCO_(2))from FFCO_(2)emissions(MREff)retained in the analysis of natural flux optimization.China's FFCO_(2)emissions during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 are estimated using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model.The relationship between the MREff and FFCO_(2)is determined using the model based on a regional FFCO_(2)anomaly suggested by posterior NOx emissions from air-quality data assimilation.The MREff is typically one-tenth in magnitude,but some positively skewed outliers exceed 1 ppm because the prior emissions lack lockdown impacts,thereby exerting considerable observation forcing given the satellite retrieval uncertainties.We initialize the FFCO_(2)with posterior NOx emissions and optimize the colinear emission ratio.Synthetic data experiments demonstrate that this approach reduces the FFCO_(2)bias to less than 10%.The real-data experiments estimate 19%lower FFCO_(2)with GOSAT XCO_(2)and 26%lower with OCO-2 XCO_(2)than the bottom-up estimations.This study proves the feasibility of our regional FFCO_(2)inversion,highlighting the importance of addressing the outlier behaviors observed in satellite XCO_(2)retrievals.
基金The authors wish to thank:Igor Kharitonov,Director,Department for Foreign Statistics and International Projects,Federal State Statistics Service,Rosstat.State Statistics Service,Main Department of Statistics in Donetsk Oblast.The Ukrainian Statistical agency UkrStat.gov.ua.
文摘Detailed projections of the Former Soviet Union(FSU)fossil fuel production has been created.Russian production has been modelled at the region(oblast)level where possible.The projections were made using the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model(GeRS-DeMo).Low,Best Guess and High scenarios were created.FSU fossil fuels are projected to peak between 2027 and 2087 with the range due to spread of Ultimately Recoverable Resources(URR)values used.The Best Guess(BG)scenario anticipates FSU will peak in 2087 with production over 170 EJ per year.The FSU projections were combined with rest of the world projections(Mohr et al.2015b),the emissions from the High scenario for the world are similar to the IPCC A1 AIM scenario.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71503264,71373285,71303258)Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China(Grant Nos.15YJC630121,13YJC630148)+1 种基金Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(No.2462014YJRC024)the Major Program of the National Social Science Found of China(Grant No.13&ZD159)
文摘This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year(or 9.6 EJ/year),in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around350 Bcm/year(or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year(or 91.9 EJ/year)around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI(energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.
基金financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.22038001,51621003,22108007)。
文摘Under the context of carbon neutrality of China,it is urgent to shift our energy supply towards cleaner fuels as well as to reduce the greenhouse gas emission.Currently,coal is the main fossil fuel energy source of China.The country is striving hard to replace it with methane,a cleaner fossil fuel.Although China has rich geological resources of methane as coal bed methane(CBM)reserves,it is quite challenging to utilize them due to low concentration.The CBM is however mainly emitted directly to atmosphere during coal mining,causing waste of the resource and huge contribution to greenhouse effect.The recent work by Yang et al.demonstrated a potential solution to extract low concentration methane selectively from CBM through using MOF materials as sorbents.Such kind of materials and associated separation technology are promising to reduce greenhouse gas emission and promote the methane production capability,which would contribute to carbon neutrality in dual pathways.
文摘Dramatic fall in costs of renewable energy in the last 24 months has not only accelerated the replacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy in electricity generation. The low cost renewable electricity is now starting to replace fossil fuels in other sectors. One reason is that renewable electricity is now cheaper per unit energy than oil, about the same price as fossil methan but, still, more expensive than coal. Another reason is that electricity often offer other opportunities, such as cheaper transport, better control, higher energy efficiency in final production of energy services and lower local environmental costs.
文摘Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have greatly increased with the increased use of fossil fuels, leading to air pollution and global warming. We present the researches on air pollution and the use of fossil fuels in north China, the economic zone of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and the economic zone of the Pearl River Delta region. Researches indicate that the use of fossil fuels has been the main source of air pollution in the three regions. We present researches on global mean surface temperature (GMST) with the rise of carbon dioxide concentration (CDC) and global fossil fuel consumption (GFFC);researches indicate that the rise in CDC can account for 91% of the rise in GMST, and GFFC can account for 90% of the rise in GMST. We analyse the factors that bring about air pollution and temperature rise, they are the use of fossil fuels and deforestation. It is critically important to replace fossil fuels with clean energy, but renewable energy has also disadvantages. The world faces difficulties in solving air pollution and global warming, so governments of the world should cooperate to solve the technologies of clean energy, and preserve the forests and the natural environment.
文摘We have found some fluorescence characteristics of fossil fuels based on the contour maps of the three dimensional fluorescence spectra of their non quenching samples. The common fluorescence characteristic is that the main peaks of various fossil fuels are located in the vicinity of excitation/emission wavelength pair 228nm/340nm.The diversity of fluorescence characteristics can be represented with several indexes α,K,F and R ,and these indexes provide measurable parameters for division of fluorescence fingerprints of fossil fuels. The fluorescence fingerprints of fossil fuels can be divided into five models named O,B,Q,P and G that are corresponding to condensate oil, light oil, heavy oil, coal and natural gas, respectively. The technique has a potential application in study of environment pollution on crude oil and geochemical exploration of fossil fuels.
文摘Examining the contribution of fossil fuel CO_(2) to the total CO_(2) changes in the atmosphere is of primary concern due to its alarming levels of fossil fuel emissions over the globe,specifically developing countries.Atmospheric radiocarbon represents an important observational constraint and utilized to trace fossil fuel derived CO_(2)(CO_(2ff))in the atmosphere.For the first time,we have presented a detailed analysis on the spatial distribution of fossil fuel derived CO_(2)(CO_(2ff))over India using radiocarbon(Δ14C)measurements during three-year period.Analysis shows that theΔ14C values are varying between 29.33‰ to-34.06‰ across India in the year 2017,where highest value belongs to a location from Gujarat while lowest value belongs to a location from Chhattisgarh.Based on the14C patterns,spatial distributions of CO_(2ff) mole fractions have been determined over India and the calculated values of CO_(2ff) mole fractions are varying between 4.85 ppm to 26.59 ppm across India.It is also noticed that the highest CO_(2ff) mole fraction is observed as 26.59 ppm from a site in Chhattisgarh.CO_(2ff) mole fraction values from four high altitude sites are found to be varied between 4.85 ppm to 14.87 ppm.Effect of sampling different crop plants from the same growing season and different crop plant organs(grains,leaves,stems)on theΔ14C and CO_(2ff) have been studied.Annual and intra seasonal variations in theΔ14C and CO_(2ff) mole fractions have also been analyzed from a rural location(Dholpur,Rajasthan).
文摘Rising greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change, and the world’s focus has shifted to the need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. There has been a rise in the published literature on the utilization of crops for bioenergy production in Louisiana. However, very few scholarly documents have used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map the distribution of potential bioenergy crops in Louisiana. This study seeks to fill the void by evaluating the potential of bioenergy crops in Louisiana for energy production using GIS. Given this objective, the agricultural census data for 1999, 2009, 2019, and 2020 obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture were used in the analysis. The quantities of various crops produced in the state were loaded into an attribute table and joined to a shapefile using ArcGIS software. The symbology tool’s graduated option was used to create five maps representing each of the bioenergy crops in Louisiana. The findings of the GIS analysis show that some of the parishes, such as Franklin produced the most bushels of corn (13,795,416), Iberia produced the most tons of sugarcane (1,697,980), East Carroll produced the most bushels of soybean (8,237,991), Tensas harvested the most bales of cotton (80,898) and Avoyelles produced the most bushels of sorghum (630,694). The abundance and availability of crops as raw materials for energy production will translate into lower prices in terms of energy use, making bioenergy crops a promising alternative to fossil fuels. In addition, gasoline price data from 1993-2022 was obtained from U.S. Energy Information Administration. A regression model for the average annual gasoline price over the years was constructed. The results show that the average annual gasoline price variation with respect to years is statistically significant (p 0.05). This suggests that gasoline prices will generally rise despite a price drop over the years. The paper concludes by outlining policy recommendations in the form of assessing the availability and viability of other crop types, such as wheat, oats, and rice, for energy production in the state.
文摘Mass balance equations can be used to quantify the level of fossil carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>)<sub>ff</sub> at a given site by using samples of tree leaves or tree rings. These sites are often densely populated and highly industrialized areas. In this case, in addition to the natural carbon dioxide level of the site, there are several other components that are added to it. The approaches we propose in this paper are based on the isotopic fractionation of carbon and the laws of matter conservation. Mathematical equations are derived from this and we propose approaches to establish them. Our method has allowed us to come to the conclusion of the relationship that is already found in literature. But we term this relationship in another way by introducing the fraction of carbon modern F and the proportion of CO<sub>2</sub> derived from fossil fuels, which will be noted (S)<sub>ff</sub> for the following. As an indicator of the Suess Effect, we have calculated these values in our different sites. Wooded areas sites which are located in urban areas have higher value of proportion of fossil fuel <span style="white-space:normal;">(S)</span><sub style="white-space:normal;">ff</sub> .
文摘A risk in the prices of fossil fuels is a major concern to importing countries of them. This study analyzes the risk of an increase in the cost for Japanese electric utility sector during the period 1978-2007 considering the uncertainty in the prices of fossil fuels. The mean-semivariance model, which uses an upper semivariance as an index of the risk, is adopted for the purpose. The result confirms that the semivariance is the better index of the risk than the variance. Furether, the semivariance is decomposed into two factors; the risk caused by price changes in an individual fossil fuel source and the risk caused by correlations among the changes in the prices of fossil fuel sources. The former has been kept at a low level as it appears to be easy to estimate, while the latter has not been maintained at the lowest level as it appears to be difficult to estimate. The Japanese electric utility sector followed the minimum-risk fossil fuel mix up until 2001, but discontinued the same post 2001.
文摘China has a huge demand for energy.Under the present energy structure of rich coal,lean oil,less gas,limited and low-rising rate renewable energy,discussion focus is now on the high-efficient mining of coal as well as its clean-and-low-carbon use.In view of this,based on an analysis of the problems in the coal chemical industry and the present coal utilization ways such as Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle(IGCC),this paper proposes that underground coal gasification(UCG)technology is a realistic choice.By virtue of its advantages in many aspects such as safety&environment,integrated use of superior resources,economic feasibility,etc.this technology can serve as the front-end support and guarantee for coal chemical industry and IGCC.Under the present situation,the following proposals were presented to promote the development of this technology.First,R&D of technical products should be strengthened,a comprehensive feasibility study assessment system should be established,and the relevant criteria in the industry should be formulated.Second,precise market positioning of UCG products should be made with much concern on the integrated economic indicators of each product's complete flow scheme,following the principle of“Technical Feasibility First,Economic Optimization Followed”.Third,a perfect operation and management pattern should be established with strict control over high-efficient,environmentally-friendly,safe,harmonious&compact objectives in the whole industry chain.In conclusion,to realize the large-scale UCG commercial production will strongly promote the optimization and innovation of fossil fuels supply-side economics in China.
文摘In this work, by using an indirect method based on the correspondence between the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere and the quantity of fossil fuel in the Earth, the resources of fossil fuels were evaluated to be about 1.9 × 1016 ton. Unluckily, only a small part of these fuels is easily accessible. Nevertheless, their quantity is so high that it is reasonable to assume that fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy scene for several years. The extensive use of fossil fuels alters the ratio between oxygen and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The effects of this change are however so slow that they become important only on the geological time scale.
文摘This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the current energy landscape and the imperative transition toward renewable energy.It begins with an overview of current energy sources and trends,highlighting the disparity between supply and increasing demand.Adverse impacts of reliance on fossil fuels such as environmental degradation,economic volatility,and health hazards underscore the urgent need for a transition.The study then explores the vast potential of renewable energy sources(RES)such as solar,wind,hydrogen,and hydro,emphasizing their feasibility in the Southern African context.The positive impacts of integrating renewables are examined,including reduced greenhouse gas emissions,enhanced energy security,and economic diversification.Through case studies of regional examples,the success and failures of transitioning efforts are analyzed,providing valuable insights into best practices and pitfalls.The study identifies significant challenges in transitioning,particularly in grid-tied and off-grid scenarios,and discusses infrastructural,financial,and regulatory obstacles.The recommendations section outlines strategic steps for achieving a feasible transition,proposing either a full transition or specific percentages of renewable energy integration to meet energy demands.In conclusion,the study emphasizes the critical importance of adopting these strategies for sustainable development and global climate goals,advocating for continuous innovation and localized solutions to maximize the benefits of renewable energy.Key findings are that the environmental and economic effects of fossil fuel usage strain economies by increasing fossil fuel subsidies.RES are abundant in the Southern African region,and some projects have already been successfully implemented,especially in South Africa.Economic growth and technological advancement are some of the benefits of fully transitioning to renewables,but lack of skilled labor,infrastructure,necessary technology,and most importantly,high capital requirements,etc.,are some challenges being faced.Hence,the need for regional cooperation,policy frameworks,and infrastructure enhancement,and investment mobilization for an accelerated transition.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42372151 and Distinguished Young Scholars(Overseas)).
文摘Climate change requires an immediate transition from fossil fuels to clean energy sources.Although hydrogen is considered a future energy source,over 90%of hydrogen is currently produced from fossil fuels,and large-scale renewable-fed hydrogen processes are limited by current technologies and economic processes.Therefore,hydrogen production from fossil fuels is a significant topic,particularly if fossil fuel-fed hydrogen production and utilization can be absolutely carbon-free.For the first time,this review critically discusses and analyses the current advances and fundamentals of fossil fuel dehydrogenation from the perspective of techno-economic-environmental assessments while considering all potential fossil resources and hydrogen technology.This review concludes that the preference of fossil fuels for any hydrogen production technology is as follows:fossil gas>heavy fossil liquid>light fossil liquid>fossil minerals.Thermo-catalytic hydrocarbon decomposition can outperform most other hydrocarbon reforming and pyrolysis processes owing to its energy efficiency,economic effectiveness,and environmental friendliness.Further,we explore potentially new“green hydrogen”technology and confirm that fossil fuels could be completely decarbonized throughout the full-chain stages from exploration to production and consumption.Overall,this work reveals that fossil fuels can be utilized completely carbon-free and provides technical support for future fossil fuel dehydrogenation and energy decarbonization in academic research,industrial practice,and governmental strategies.
文摘The use of fossil fuels has led to global warming and air pollution,the transi-tion from fossil fuel to clean energy is necessary for human society to achieve sustainable development.But there are challenges in the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy:1)Fossil fuels remain the primary energy for most coun-tries,more than 80%of primary energy consumption come from the use of fossil fuels;2)Upfront cost and intermittence are shortcomings that influence the large-scale application of renewable energy,hydrogen is not yet fully ma-ture in terms of technology and economy;3)Continuous deforestation re-duces the capability of the environment to turn CO_(2) into wood and leads to the rise of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases;and 4)Overpopu-lation and continuous growth of human population in developing countries cause the continuous increase of fossil fuel use and deforestation.If people do not take effective policies to get out of this predicament,global warming and air pollution will continue and become worse.
基金research project‘The image of the National Institute of Industry in the territory:Cartography and landscape of industry»’(Ref.PGC2018-095261-B-C22)funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science,Innovation and Universities 2019–2022.PI:Ángeles Layuno-Rosas.Field research carried out in Malta was part of a Short-Term Scientific Mission funded by Cost Action CA18110 Underground Built Heritage as catalyser for Community Valorisation+1 种基金Early careers at the University of Alcala are funded by the following programs:[Faria,Júlia]Next Generation EU Funds for the requalification of the Spanish University System—Margarita Salas,2021[Magaz-Molina,Jorge]Spanish State Plan for Scientific and Technical Research and Innovation 2017–2020—Funds for pre-doctoral contracts and PhD training PRE2019-091547,2019.
文摘This article addresses the gap in comprehensive studies on the impact of climate change policies on the built heritage of greenhouse gas emitting industries,focusing on the preservation of fossil fuel power stations(FFPSs)in Southwestern Europe.Through a cultural policy review and an extensive survey of FFPSs across Spain,France,Portugal,Italy,Gibraltar,Malta,Monaco,and the Vatican City,the study examines their conservation status and explores heritage-related concerns arising from their closure due to decarbonisation initiatives.The methodology combines the construction of a geo-referenced database using historical references with a multilingual review of heritage literature,administrative reports,and corporate documentation on industrial heritage management and decarbonisation policies.Findings reveal that the preservation of FFPSs affected by decarbonisation programmes is hindered by limited recognition of their cultural values,with economic factors further impeding efforts to prevent demolition and promote conservation.The discussion highlights disparities in the attention given to FFPSs:reused facilities,predominantly located in urban areas and dating to the first half of the 20th century or earlier,contrast sharply with those built in rural or isolated regions since the mid-20th century which face greater conflicts when proposed as heritage assets.This study underscores the challenges and inequities in preserving FFPSs as part of the industrial built heritage affected by decarbonisation policies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42105094).
文摘Developing an anthropogenic carbon dioxides(CO_(2))emissions monitoring and verification support(MVS)capacity is essential to support the Global Stocktake(GST)and ratchet up Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs).The 2019 IPCC refinement proposes top-down inversed CO_(2)emissions,primarily from fossil fuel(FFCO_(2)),as a viable emission dataset.Despite substantial progress in directly inferring FFCO_(2)emissions from CO_(2)observations,substantial challenges remain,particularly in distinguishing local CO_(2)enhancements from the high background due to the long atmospheric lifetime.Alternatively,using short-lived and co-emitted nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2))as a proxy in FFCO_(2)emission inversion has gained prominence.This methodology is broadly categorized into plume-based and emission ratios(ERs)-based inversion methods.In the plume-based methods,NO_(2)observations act as locators,constraints,and validators for deciphering CO_(2)plumes downwind of sources,typically at point source and city scales.The ERs-based inversion approach typically consists of two steps:inferring NO_(2)-based nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))emissions and converting NO_(x)to CO_(2)emissions using CO_(2)-to-NO_(x)ERs.While integrating NO_(2)observations into FFCO_(2)emission inversion offers advantages over the direct CO_(2)-based methods,uncertainties persist,including both structural and data-related uncertainties.Addressing these uncertainties is a primary focus for future research,which includes deploying nextgeneration satellites and developing advanced inversion systems.Besides,data caveats are necessary when releasing data to users to prevent potential misuse.Advancing NO_(2)-based CO_(2)emission inversion requires interdisciplinary collaboration across multiple communities of remote sensing,emission inventory,transport model improvement,and atmospheric inversion algorithm development.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31070384)
文摘In this article, we calculate China's Mainland’s CO2 emission of fossil fuel consumption from 1991 to 2010 following the apparent consumption method recommend by IPCC： （i） the scale of CO2 emissions has increased nearly to 4 times as that in 1991; （ii） coal consumption constitutes the highest proportion due to the richness of coal resources in China; （iii） per capita CO2 emission has increased from 1.98 to 5.57 t CO2 ; （iv） carbon emission intensity declined significantly from 6.66 to 1.07 kg CO2 USD -1 , but recently it tends to be stable; and （v） regional develop gaps remain in China's Mainland, for according to the provincial data, in many developing regions economic increase over-reliance on fossil fuel consumption. China has made the promises and already taken actions to deal with the high carbon emission. Comprehensively considering the sustainability of development and the uncertainties remaining in global climate change, healthier structures of industry, intensive usage of fossil fuel, and a more balanced development pattern among the southern, central and western China should be put more emphasis.
