Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study...Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study models the dynamics of Italian silver fir(Abies alba)forests under varying climate change scenarios using the forest gap model FORMIND.Focusing on three distinct silver fir provenances(Western Alps,Northern Apennines,and Southern Apennines),the study simulates forest growth in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs).The individual-based model FORMIND was parameterized and validated with field data for each of the provenances,demonstrating its ability to accurately reproduce key forest metrics and dynamics.Our results reveal significant differences in expected growth patterns,productivity,metabolism,and carbon storage capacity among the silver fir provenances in pure and mixed stands.In the simulations,the Northern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass production(biomass>10%±1%)and carbon uptake(net primary productivity,NPP>8%±1%)at the end of the century compared to the Western Alps provenance in the pure provenance(PP)and no regeneration scenario.Conversely,the Southern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass(biomass>5%–10%)and NPP(>15%–18%)in mixed provenance(MP)and regeneration scenarios.These results show that genetic diversity strongly affects forest growth and resilience to environmental changes.Hence,it should be included as a predictor variable in forest models.The study also demonstrates the resilience of silver fir to climatic stressors,emphasizing its potential as a robust species in multiple forest contexts.The integration of forest provenance data into the FORMIND model represents a significant advancement in forest modelling,enabling more accurate and reliable predictions under climate change scenarios.The study's findings advocate for a greater understanding and consideration of genetic diversity in forest management and conservation strategies,in support of assisted migration strategies aiming to enhance the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.展开更多
Slope units are divided according to the real topography and have clear geological characteristics,making them ideal units for evaluating the susceptibility to geological disasters.Based on the results of automaticall...Slope units are divided according to the real topography and have clear geological characteristics,making them ideal units for evaluating the susceptibility to geological disasters.Based on the results of automatically and manually corrected hydrological slope unit division,the Longhua District,Shenzhen City,Guangdong Province,was selected as the study area.A total of 15 influencing factors,namely Fluctuation,slope,slope aspect,curvature,topographic witness index(TWI),stream power index(SPI),topographic roughness index(TRI),annual average rainfall,distance to water system,engineering rock group,distance to fault,land use,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),nighttime light,and distance to road,were selected as evaluation indicators.The information volume model(IV)and random points were used to select non-geological disaster units,and then the random forest model(RF)was used to evaluate the susceptibility to geological disasters.The automatic slope unit and the hydrological slope unit were compared and analyzed in the random forest and information volume random forest models.The results show that the area under the curve(AUC)values of the automatic slope unit evaluation results are 0.931 for the IV-RF model and 0.716 for the RF model,which are 0.6%(IV-RF model)and 1.9%(RF model)higher than those for the hydrological slope unit.Based on a comparison of the evaluation methods based on the two types of slope units,the hydrological slope unit evaluation method based on manual correction is highly subjective,is complicated to operate,and has a low evaluation accuracy,whereas the evaluation method based on automatic slope unit division is efficient and accurate,is suitable for large-scale efficient geological disaster evaluation,and can better deal with the problem of geological disaster susceptibility evaluation.展开更多
Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of ...Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of this species,it is important to have accurate and precise projections over time to make efficient decisions for forest management and greenfield investments in afforestation projects,especially for permanent carbon forests.Future projections of any natural resource systems rely on modeling;however,the acceleration of climate change makes future projections of yield less certain.These challenges also impact national expectations of the contribution planted forests will provide to address climate change and meet international commitments under the Paris Agreement.Using a large national-scale set of contemporary ground-measured data(2013–2023),this study investigates the performance of two growth models developed over 30 years ago that are widely used by NZ plantation growers:1)the Pumice Plateau Model 1988(PPM88)and 2)the 300-index(including a model variant of regional drift).Model simulations were made using the FORECASTER modeling suite with geographic boundaries to adjust for drift in space and time.Basal area(BA,m^(2)⋅ha^(-1))and volume(m^(3)⋅ha^(-1))were simulated,and standard errors and goodness-of-fit metrics calculated up to a typical rotation age of 30 years.Model residuals were then separated and analysed for the main plantation growing regions.The models overpredicted observed growth by between 6.8%and 16.2%,but model predictions and errors varied significantly between regions.The results of this study provided clear evidence of divergence between the outputs of both models and the measured data.Finally,this study suggests future measures to address challenges posed by these discrepancies that will provide better information for forest management and investment decisions in a changing climate.展开更多
Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environment...Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environmental footprint by reducing the risks of disruption,downtime,and waste.However,with increasingly complex energy consumption patterns driven by renewable energy integration and changing consumer behaviors,no single approach has emerged as universally effective.In response,this research presents a hybrid modeling framework that combines the strengths of Random Forest(RF)and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)models,enhanced with advanced feature selection—Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevancy and Maximum Synergy(MRMRMS)method—to produce a sparse model.Additionally,the residual patterns are analyzed to enhance forecast accuracy.High-resolution weather data from Weather Underground and historical energy consumption data from PJM for Duke Energy Ohio and Kentucky(DEO&K)are used in this application.This methodology,termed SP-RF-ARIMA,is evaluated against existing approaches;it demonstrates more than 40%reduction in mean absolute error and root mean square error compared to the second-best method.展开更多
This study evaluated the total height of trees based on diameter at breast height by using 23 widely used height-diameter non-linear regression models for mixed-species forest stands consisting of Caucasian oak,field ...This study evaluated the total height of trees based on diameter at breast height by using 23 widely used height-diameter non-linear regression models for mixed-species forest stands consisting of Caucasian oak,field maple,and hornbeam from forests in Northwest Iran.1920 trees were measured in 6 sampling plots(every sampling plot has 1 ha area).The fit of the best height–diameter models for each species were compared based on R2,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Akaike information criterion(AIC),standard error,and relative ranking performance criteria.In the final step,verification of results was performed by paired sample t-test to compare the observed height and estimated height.Results showed that among 23 height-diameter models,the best models were obtained from the top five ones including Modified-logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential.Comparison between the actual observed height and estimated height for Caucasian oak showed that Modified–Logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential performed better than the others,respectively(There were no statistically significant differences between observed heights and predicted height(p≥0.05)).Prodan,Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch evaluated field maple tree height correctly,and Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch had better fitness compared to the others for hornbeam,respectively.Although other models were introduced as appropriate criteria,they could not reliably predict the height of trees.Using the Rank analysis,the Modified-Logistic model for the Caucasian oak and Prodan model for field maple and hornbeam had the best performance.Finally,to complement the results of this study,it is suggested to assess how environmental factors such as elevation,climate parameters,forest protection policy and forest structure will modify height-diameter allometry models and will enhance the prediction accuracy of tree heights prediction in mixed stands.展开更多
Detecting cyber attacks in networks connected to the Internet of Things(IoT)is of utmost importance because of the growing vulnerabilities in the smart environment.Conventional models,such as Naive Bayes and support v...Detecting cyber attacks in networks connected to the Internet of Things(IoT)is of utmost importance because of the growing vulnerabilities in the smart environment.Conventional models,such as Naive Bayes and support vector machine(SVM),as well as ensemble methods,such as Gradient Boosting and eXtreme gradient boosting(XGBoost),are often plagued by high computational costs,which makes it challenging for them to perform real-time detection.In this regard,we suggested an attack detection approach that integrates Visual Geometry Group 16(VGG16),Artificial Rabbits Optimizer(ARO),and Random Forest Model to increase detection accuracy and operational efficiency in Internet of Things(IoT)networks.In the suggested model,the extraction of features from malware pictures was accomplished with the help of VGG16.The prediction process is carried out by the random forest model using the extracted features from the VGG16.Additionally,ARO is used to improve the hyper-parameters of the random forest model of the random forest.With an accuracy of 96.36%,the suggested model outperforms the standard models in terms of accuracy,F1-score,precision,and recall.The comparative research highlights our strategy’s success,which improves performance while maintaining a lower computational cost.This method is ideal for real-time applications,but it is effective.展开更多
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events raises the likelihood of forest wildfires.Therefore,establishing an effective fire prediction model is vital for protecting human life and property,and the environmen...The increasing frequency of extreme weather events raises the likelihood of forest wildfires.Therefore,establishing an effective fire prediction model is vital for protecting human life and property,and the environment.This study aims to build a prediction model to understand the spatial characteristics and piecewise effects of forest fire drivers.Using monthly grid data from 2006 to 2020,a modeling study analyzed fire occurrences during the September to April fire season in Fujian Province,China.We compared the fitting performance of the logistic regression model(LRM),the generalized additive logistic model(GALM),and the spatial generalized additive logistic model(SGALM).The results indicate that SGALMs had the best fitting results and the highest prediction accuracy.Meteorological factors significantly impacted forest fires in Fujian Province.Areas with high fire incidence were mainly concentrated in the northwest and southeast.SGALMs improved the fitting effect of fire prediction models by considering spatial effects and the flexible fitting ability of nonlinear interpretation.This model provides piecewise interpretations of forest wildfire occurrences,which can be valuable for relevant departments and will assist forest managers in refining prevention measures based on temporal and spatial differences.展开更多
This study investigated forest recovery in the Atlantic Rainforest and Rupestrian Grassland of Brazil using the diffusive-logistic growth(DLG)model.This model simulates vegetation growth in the two mountain biomes con...This study investigated forest recovery in the Atlantic Rainforest and Rupestrian Grassland of Brazil using the diffusive-logistic growth(DLG)model.This model simulates vegetation growth in the two mountain biomes considering spatial location,time,and two key parameters:diffusion rate and growth rate.A Bayesian framework is employed to analyze the model's parameters and assess prediction uncertainties.Satellite imagery from 1992 and 2022 was used for model calibration and validation.By solving the DLG model using the finite difference method,we predicted a 6.6%–51.1%increase in vegetation density for the Atlantic Rainforest and a 5.3%–99.9%increase for the Rupestrian Grassland over 30 years,with the latter showing slower recovery but achieving a better model fit(lower RMSE)compared to the Atlantic Rainforest.The Bayesian approach revealed well-defined parameter distributions and lower parameter values for the Rupestrian Grassland,supporting the slower recovery prediction.Importantly,the model achieved good agreement with observed vegetation patterns in unseen validation data for both biomes.While there were minor spatial variations in accuracy,the overall distributions of predicted and observed vegetation density were comparable.Furthermore,this study highlights the importance of considering uncertainty in model predictions.Bayesian inference allowed us to quantify this uncertainty,demonstrating that the model's performance can vary across locations.Our approach provides valuable insights into forest regeneration process uncertainties,enabling comparisons of modeled scenarios at different recovery stages for better decision-making in these critical mountain biomes.展开更多
Zenith wet delay(ZWD)is a key parameter for the precise positioning of global navigation satellite systems(GNSS)and occupies a central role in meteorological research.Currently,most models only consider the periodic v...Zenith wet delay(ZWD)is a key parameter for the precise positioning of global navigation satellite systems(GNSS)and occupies a central role in meteorological research.Currently,most models only consider the periodic variability of the ZWD,neglecting the effect of nonlinear factors on the ZWD estimation.This oversight results in a limited capability to reflect the rapid fluctuations of the ZWD.To more accurately capture and predict complicated variations in ZWD,this paper developed the CRZWD model by a combination of the GPT3 model and random forests(RF)algorithm using 5-year atmospheric profiles from 70 radiosonde(RS)stations across China.Taking the external 25 test stations data as reference,the root mean square(RMS)of the CRZWD model is 29.95 mm.Compared with the GPT3 model and another model using backpropagation neural network(BPNN),the accuracy has improved by 24.7%and 15.9%,respectively.Notably,over 56%of the test stations exhibit an improvement of more than 20%in contrast to GPT3-ZWD.Further temporal and spatial characteristic analyses also demonstrate the significant accuracy and stability advantages of the CRZWD model,indicating the potential prospects for GNSS-based applications.展开更多
Stand age plays a crucial role in forest biomass estimation and carbon cycle modeling.Assessing the uncertainty of stand age prediction models and identifying the key driving factors in the modeling process have becom...Stand age plays a crucial role in forest biomass estimation and carbon cycle modeling.Assessing the uncertainty of stand age prediction models and identifying the key driving factors in the modeling process have become major challenges in forestry research.In this study,we selected the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region of Northeast China as the research area and utilized multi-source datasets from the summer of 2019 to extract information on spectral,textural,climatic,water balance,and stand characteristics.By integrating the Random Forest(RF)model with Monte Carlo(MC)simulation,we constructed six regression models based on different combina-tions of features and evaluated the uncertainty of each model.Furthermore,we investigated the driving factors influencing stand age modeling by analyzing the effects of different types of features on age inversion.Model performance and accuracy were assessed using the root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and the coefficient of determination(R^(2)),while the relative root mean square error(rRMSE)was employed to quantify model uncertainty.The results indicate that the scenarios with more obvious improve-ment in accuracy and effective reduction in uncertainty were Scenario 3 with the inclusion of climate and water balance information(RMSE=25.54 yr,MAE=18.03 yr,R^(2)=0.51,rRMSE=19.17%)and Scenario 5 with the inclusion of stand characterization informa-tion(RMSE=18.47 yr,MAE=13.05 yr,R^(2)=0.74,rRMSE=16.99%).Scenario 6,incorporating all feature types,achieved the highest accuracy(RMSE=17.60 yr,MAE=12.06 yr,R^(2)=0.77,rRMSE=14.19%).In this study,elevation,minimum temperature,and diameter at breast height(DBH)emerged as the key drivers of stand-age modeling.The proposed method can be used to identify drivers and to quantify uncertainty in stand-age estimation,providing a useful reference for improving model accuracy and uncertainty assessment.展开更多
The growth of Sakhalin fir(Abies sachalinen-sis)seedlings,an important forest tree species in northern Hokkaido,Japan,is significantly affected by competition from surrounding vegetation,especially evergreen dwarf bam...The growth of Sakhalin fir(Abies sachalinen-sis)seedlings,an important forest tree species in northern Hokkaido,Japan,is significantly affected by competition from surrounding vegetation,especially evergreen dwarf bamboo.In this study,we investigated the height and root collar diameter(RCD)growth of Sakhalin fir seedlings under various degrees of cover by deciduous vegetation and evergreen dwarf bamboo.Generalized additive models were used to quantify the effects of canopy cover and forest floor cover on the relative growth rates of these two parameters.The canopy cover of Sakhalin fir seedlings had a nonlin-ear negative effect on both the height growth of seedlings in the subsequent year and the RCD growth in the current year,given the general growth pattern in this species,where height growth ceases in early summer and RCD growth con-tinues until autumn.Height growth declined sharply after the canopy cover rate exceeded 50%,while RCD growth declined rapidly between 0 and 50%canopy cover rate.The forest floor cover had a greater negative impact on RCD growth than on height growth.These results suggested that Sakhalin fir seedlings respond to vegetative competition by prioritizing height growth for light acquisition at the expense of diameter growth and possibly root growth for below-ground competition.The cover of evergreen dwarf bamboo reduced the height growth of fir seedlings significantly more than the cover of deciduous vegetation.This difference is likely due to the timing of light availability.When competing with deciduous vegetation,Sakhalin fir seedlings exposed to light during the post-snow melt and early spring before the development of the deciduous vegetation canopy can photosynthesize more effectively,leading to greater height growth.The results of this study highlighted the importance of vegetation control considering the type of vegetation for successful Sakhalin fir reforestation.Adjusting the intensity and timing of weeding based on the presence and abundance of dwarf bamboo and other competing vegetation could potentially reduce weeding costs and increase biodiversity in reforested areas.展开更多
【目的】耒阳市滑坡灾害频发,对人民生命财产和生态安全构成严重威胁。为提高滑坡易发性评价的精度,【方法】以湖南省耒阳市为研究区,构建信息量模型(information value model,IV)与随机森林模型(random forest,RF)耦合的IV-RF模型,引...【目的】耒阳市滑坡灾害频发,对人民生命财产和生态安全构成严重威胁。为提高滑坡易发性评价的精度,【方法】以湖南省耒阳市为研究区,构建信息量模型(information value model,IV)与随机森林模型(random forest,RF)耦合的IV-RF模型,引入空间约束采样策略优化负样本选取策略,开展滑坡易发性评价。通过ROC曲线和AUC值对3种模型进行对比分析,同时提出综合性能指数用于综合评价模型表现。【结果】1)IV-RF耦合模型表现优于单一模型,AUC=0.952,综合性能指数(Accuracy+F1+MCC)为2.593。极高-高易发区滑坡点分布密集,极低-低易发区滑坡点极少,验证模型具有较高的空间预测精度。2)工程地质岩组因子是影响研究区滑坡发育最重要的评价因子之一。【结论】IV-RF耦合模型结合IV的数据定量解译与RF的非线性识别能力,可有效提升模型识别精度,研究结果可为研究区滑坡灾害风险防控、水土保持和国土空间规划提供科学依据。展开更多
In our previous studies, we demonstrated the usefulness of TanDEM-X interferometric bistatic mode with single polarization to obtain forest heights for the purposes of large area mapping. A key feature of our approach...In our previous studies, we demonstrated the usefulness of TanDEM-X interferometric bistatic mode with single polarization to obtain forest heights for the purposes of large area mapping. A key feature of our approach has been the use of a simplified Random Volume Over Ground(RVOG) model that locally estimates forest height. The model takes TanDEM-X interferometric coherence amplitude as an input and uses an external Digital Surface Model(DSM) to account for local slope variations due to terrain topography in order to achieve accurate forest height estimation. The selection of DSM for use as a local slope reference is essential, as an inaccurate DSM will result in less accurate terrain-correction and forest height estimation. In this paper, we assessed TanDEM-X height estimates associated with scale variations in different DSMs used in the model over a remote sensing supersite in Petawawa, Canada. The DSMs used for assessments and comparisons included ASTER GDEM, ALOS GDSM, airborne DRAPE DSM, Canadian DSM and TanDEM-X DSM. Airborne Laser Scanning(ALS) data were used as reference for terrain slope and forest height comparisons. The results showed that, with the exception of the ASTER GDEM, all DSMs were sufficiently accurate for the simplified RVOG model to provide a satisfactory estimate of stand-level forest height. When compared to the ALS 95th height percentile, the modeled forest heights had R2 values greater than 80% and Root-Mean-Square Errors(RMSE)less than 2 m. For a close similarity in slope estimation with the ALS reference, coverage across Canada and open data access, the 0.75 arc-second(20 m) resolution Canadian DSM was selected as a preferred choice for the simplified RVOG model to provide TanDEM-X height estimation in Canada.展开更多
To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information ...To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information System(GIS)with integrated spatial data,a frequency ratio(FR)model,and a random forest(RF)model(also referred to as the coupled FR-RF model).The coupled FR-RF model was constructed based on the analysis of nine influential factors,including distance from roads,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and slope.The performance of the coupled FR-RF model was assessed using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)and Precision-Recall(PR)curves,yielding Area Under the Curve(AUC)values of 0.93 and 0.95,which indicate high predictive accuracy and reliability for geological hazard forecasting.Based on the model predictions,five susceptibility levels were determined in the study area,providing crucial spatial information for geologic hazard prevention and control.The contributions of various influential factors to landslide susceptibility were determined using SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis and the Gini index,enhancing the model interpretability and transparency.Additionally,this study discussed the limitations of the coupled FR-RF model and the prospects for its improvement using new technologies.This study provides an innovative method and theoretical support for geologic hazard prediction and management,holding promising prospects for application.展开更多
Gross primary production(GPP)is a crucial indicator representing the absorption of atmospheric CO_(2) by vegetation.At present,the estimation of GPP by remote sensing is mainly based on leaf-related vegetation indexes...Gross primary production(GPP)is a crucial indicator representing the absorption of atmospheric CO_(2) by vegetation.At present,the estimation of GPP by remote sensing is mainly based on leaf-related vegetation indexes and leaf-related biophysical para-meter leaf area index(LAI),which are not completely synchronized in seasonality with GPP.In this study,we proposed chlorophyll content-based light use efficiency model(CC-LUE)to improve GPP estimates,as chlorophyll is the direct site of photosynthesis,and only the light absorbed by chlorophyll is used in the photosynthetic process.The CC-LUE model is constructed by establishing a linear correlation between satellite-derived canopy chlorophyll content(Chlcanopy)and FPAR.This method was calibrated and validated utiliz-ing 7-d averaged in-situ GPP data from 14 eddy covariance flux towers covering deciduous broadleaf forest ecosystems across five dif-ferent climate zones.Results showed a relatively robust seasonal consistency between Chlcanopy with GPP in deciduous broadleaf forests under different climatic conditions.The CC-LUE model explained 88% of the in-situ GPP seasonality for all validation site-year and 56.0% of in-situ GPP variations through the growing season,outperforming the three widely used LUE models(MODIS-GPP algorithm,Vegetation Photosynthesis Model(VPM),and the eddy covariance-light use efficiency model(EC-LUE)).Additionally,the CC-LUE model(RMSE=0.50 g C/(m^(2)·d))significantly improved the underestimation of GPP during the growing season in semi-arid region,re-markably decreasing the root mean square error of averaged growing season GPP simulation and in-situ GPP by 75.4%,73.4%,and 37.5%,compared with MOD17(RMSE=2.03 g C/(m^(2)·d)),VPM(RMSE=1.88 g C/(m^(2)·d)),and EC-LUE(RMSE=0.80 g C/(m^(2)·d))model.The chlorophyll-based method proved superior in capturing the seasonal variations of GPP in forest ecosystems,thereby provid-ing the possibility of a more precise depiction of forest seasonal carbon uptake.展开更多
基金the University of Milan for funding the“ProForesta”project through the 2020 Research Support Planthe“Ente Parco Nazionale dell'Appennino Tosco-Emiliano”for having financed the project“First urgent measures to promote the adaptation of the silver fir forests of the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park to the effects of climate change”。
文摘Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study models the dynamics of Italian silver fir(Abies alba)forests under varying climate change scenarios using the forest gap model FORMIND.Focusing on three distinct silver fir provenances(Western Alps,Northern Apennines,and Southern Apennines),the study simulates forest growth in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs).The individual-based model FORMIND was parameterized and validated with field data for each of the provenances,demonstrating its ability to accurately reproduce key forest metrics and dynamics.Our results reveal significant differences in expected growth patterns,productivity,metabolism,and carbon storage capacity among the silver fir provenances in pure and mixed stands.In the simulations,the Northern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass production(biomass>10%±1%)and carbon uptake(net primary productivity,NPP>8%±1%)at the end of the century compared to the Western Alps provenance in the pure provenance(PP)and no regeneration scenario.Conversely,the Southern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass(biomass>5%–10%)and NPP(>15%–18%)in mixed provenance(MP)and regeneration scenarios.These results show that genetic diversity strongly affects forest growth and resilience to environmental changes.Hence,it should be included as a predictor variable in forest models.The study also demonstrates the resilience of silver fir to climatic stressors,emphasizing its potential as a robust species in multiple forest contexts.The integration of forest provenance data into the FORMIND model represents a significant advancement in forest modelling,enabling more accurate and reliable predictions under climate change scenarios.The study's findings advocate for a greater understanding and consideration of genetic diversity in forest management and conservation strategies,in support of assisted migration strategies aiming to enhance the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.
文摘Slope units are divided according to the real topography and have clear geological characteristics,making them ideal units for evaluating the susceptibility to geological disasters.Based on the results of automatically and manually corrected hydrological slope unit division,the Longhua District,Shenzhen City,Guangdong Province,was selected as the study area.A total of 15 influencing factors,namely Fluctuation,slope,slope aspect,curvature,topographic witness index(TWI),stream power index(SPI),topographic roughness index(TRI),annual average rainfall,distance to water system,engineering rock group,distance to fault,land use,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),nighttime light,and distance to road,were selected as evaluation indicators.The information volume model(IV)and random points were used to select non-geological disaster units,and then the random forest model(RF)was used to evaluate the susceptibility to geological disasters.The automatic slope unit and the hydrological slope unit were compared and analyzed in the random forest and information volume random forest models.The results show that the area under the curve(AUC)values of the automatic slope unit evaluation results are 0.931 for the IV-RF model and 0.716 for the RF model,which are 0.6%(IV-RF model)and 1.9%(RF model)higher than those for the hydrological slope unit.Based on a comparison of the evaluation methods based on the two types of slope units,the hydrological slope unit evaluation method based on manual correction is highly subjective,is complicated to operate,and has a low evaluation accuracy,whereas the evaluation method based on automatic slope unit division is efficient and accurate,is suitable for large-scale efficient geological disaster evaluation,and can better deal with the problem of geological disaster susceptibility evaluation.
基金funded by Scion's Strategic Science Investment Fund(SSIF)the Forest Growers Levy Trust(FGLT)through the Resilient Forests Programme(Task No.A89220)。
文摘Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of this species,it is important to have accurate and precise projections over time to make efficient decisions for forest management and greenfield investments in afforestation projects,especially for permanent carbon forests.Future projections of any natural resource systems rely on modeling;however,the acceleration of climate change makes future projections of yield less certain.These challenges also impact national expectations of the contribution planted forests will provide to address climate change and meet international commitments under the Paris Agreement.Using a large national-scale set of contemporary ground-measured data(2013–2023),this study investigates the performance of two growth models developed over 30 years ago that are widely used by NZ plantation growers:1)the Pumice Plateau Model 1988(PPM88)and 2)the 300-index(including a model variant of regional drift).Model simulations were made using the FORECASTER modeling suite with geographic boundaries to adjust for drift in space and time.Basal area(BA,m^(2)⋅ha^(-1))and volume(m^(3)⋅ha^(-1))were simulated,and standard errors and goodness-of-fit metrics calculated up to a typical rotation age of 30 years.Model residuals were then separated and analysed for the main plantation growing regions.The models overpredicted observed growth by between 6.8%and 16.2%,but model predictions and errors varied significantly between regions.The results of this study provided clear evidence of divergence between the outputs of both models and the measured data.Finally,this study suggests future measures to address challenges posed by these discrepancies that will provide better information for forest management and investment decisions in a changing climate.
基金supported by the Startup Grant(PG18929)awarded to F.Shokoohi.
文摘Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environmental footprint by reducing the risks of disruption,downtime,and waste.However,with increasingly complex energy consumption patterns driven by renewable energy integration and changing consumer behaviors,no single approach has emerged as universally effective.In response,this research presents a hybrid modeling framework that combines the strengths of Random Forest(RF)and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)models,enhanced with advanced feature selection—Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevancy and Maximum Synergy(MRMRMS)method—to produce a sparse model.Additionally,the residual patterns are analyzed to enhance forecast accuracy.High-resolution weather data from Weather Underground and historical energy consumption data from PJM for Duke Energy Ohio and Kentucky(DEO&K)are used in this application.This methodology,termed SP-RF-ARIMA,is evaluated against existing approaches;it demonstrates more than 40%reduction in mean absolute error and root mean square error compared to the second-best method.
文摘This study evaluated the total height of trees based on diameter at breast height by using 23 widely used height-diameter non-linear regression models for mixed-species forest stands consisting of Caucasian oak,field maple,and hornbeam from forests in Northwest Iran.1920 trees were measured in 6 sampling plots(every sampling plot has 1 ha area).The fit of the best height–diameter models for each species were compared based on R2,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Akaike information criterion(AIC),standard error,and relative ranking performance criteria.In the final step,verification of results was performed by paired sample t-test to compare the observed height and estimated height.Results showed that among 23 height-diameter models,the best models were obtained from the top five ones including Modified-logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential.Comparison between the actual observed height and estimated height for Caucasian oak showed that Modified–Logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential performed better than the others,respectively(There were no statistically significant differences between observed heights and predicted height(p≥0.05)).Prodan,Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch evaluated field maple tree height correctly,and Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch had better fitness compared to the others for hornbeam,respectively.Although other models were introduced as appropriate criteria,they could not reliably predict the height of trees.Using the Rank analysis,the Modified-Logistic model for the Caucasian oak and Prodan model for field maple and hornbeam had the best performance.Finally,to complement the results of this study,it is suggested to assess how environmental factors such as elevation,climate parameters,forest protection policy and forest structure will modify height-diameter allometry models and will enhance the prediction accuracy of tree heights prediction in mixed stands.
基金funded by Institutional Fund Projects under grant no.(IFPDP-261-22)。
文摘Detecting cyber attacks in networks connected to the Internet of Things(IoT)is of utmost importance because of the growing vulnerabilities in the smart environment.Conventional models,such as Naive Bayes and support vector machine(SVM),as well as ensemble methods,such as Gradient Boosting and eXtreme gradient boosting(XGBoost),are often plagued by high computational costs,which makes it challenging for them to perform real-time detection.In this regard,we suggested an attack detection approach that integrates Visual Geometry Group 16(VGG16),Artificial Rabbits Optimizer(ARO),and Random Forest Model to increase detection accuracy and operational efficiency in Internet of Things(IoT)networks.In the suggested model,the extraction of features from malware pictures was accomplished with the help of VGG16.The prediction process is carried out by the random forest model using the extracted features from the VGG16.Additionally,ARO is used to improve the hyper-parameters of the random forest model of the random forest.With an accuracy of 96.36%,the suggested model outperforms the standard models in terms of accuracy,F1-score,precision,and recall.The comparative research highlights our strategy’s success,which improves performance while maintaining a lower computational cost.This method is ideal for real-time applications,but it is effective.
基金supported by the Fujian Provincial Science and Technology Program“University-Industry Cooperation Project”(2024Y4015)National Key R&D Plan of Strategic International Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation Project(2018YFE0207800).
文摘The increasing frequency of extreme weather events raises the likelihood of forest wildfires.Therefore,establishing an effective fire prediction model is vital for protecting human life and property,and the environment.This study aims to build a prediction model to understand the spatial characteristics and piecewise effects of forest fire drivers.Using monthly grid data from 2006 to 2020,a modeling study analyzed fire occurrences during the September to April fire season in Fujian Province,China.We compared the fitting performance of the logistic regression model(LRM),the generalized additive logistic model(GALM),and the spatial generalized additive logistic model(SGALM).The results indicate that SGALMs had the best fitting results and the highest prediction accuracy.Meteorological factors significantly impacted forest fires in Fujian Province.Areas with high fire incidence were mainly concentrated in the northwest and southeast.SGALMs improved the fitting effect of fire prediction models by considering spatial effects and the flexible fitting ability of nonlinear interpretation.This model provides piecewise interpretations of forest wildfire occurrences,which can be valuable for relevant departments and will assist forest managers in refining prevention measures based on temporal and spatial differences.
基金financial support from the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development(CNPq)and the Federal University of Ouro PretoFinancial support from the Minas Gerais Research Foundation(FAPEMIG)under grant number APQ-06559-24 is also gratefully acknowledged。
文摘This study investigated forest recovery in the Atlantic Rainforest and Rupestrian Grassland of Brazil using the diffusive-logistic growth(DLG)model.This model simulates vegetation growth in the two mountain biomes considering spatial location,time,and two key parameters:diffusion rate and growth rate.A Bayesian framework is employed to analyze the model's parameters and assess prediction uncertainties.Satellite imagery from 1992 and 2022 was used for model calibration and validation.By solving the DLG model using the finite difference method,we predicted a 6.6%–51.1%increase in vegetation density for the Atlantic Rainforest and a 5.3%–99.9%increase for the Rupestrian Grassland over 30 years,with the latter showing slower recovery but achieving a better model fit(lower RMSE)compared to the Atlantic Rainforest.The Bayesian approach revealed well-defined parameter distributions and lower parameter values for the Rupestrian Grassland,supporting the slower recovery prediction.Importantly,the model achieved good agreement with observed vegetation patterns in unseen validation data for both biomes.While there were minor spatial variations in accuracy,the overall distributions of predicted and observed vegetation density were comparable.Furthermore,this study highlights the importance of considering uncertainty in model predictions.Bayesian inference allowed us to quantify this uncertainty,demonstrating that the model's performance can vary across locations.Our approach provides valuable insights into forest regeneration process uncertainties,enabling comparisons of modeled scenarios at different recovery stages for better decision-making in these critical mountain biomes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[42030109,42074012]the Scientific Study Project for institutes of Higher Learning,Ministry of Education,Liaoning Province[LJKMZ20220673]+2 种基金the Project supported by the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earths'Dynamics,Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology[SKLGED2023-3-2]Liaoning Revitalization Talent Program[XLYC2203162]Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province in China[D2023402024].
文摘Zenith wet delay(ZWD)is a key parameter for the precise positioning of global navigation satellite systems(GNSS)and occupies a central role in meteorological research.Currently,most models only consider the periodic variability of the ZWD,neglecting the effect of nonlinear factors on the ZWD estimation.This oversight results in a limited capability to reflect the rapid fluctuations of the ZWD.To more accurately capture and predict complicated variations in ZWD,this paper developed the CRZWD model by a combination of the GPT3 model and random forests(RF)algorithm using 5-year atmospheric profiles from 70 radiosonde(RS)stations across China.Taking the external 25 test stations data as reference,the root mean square(RMS)of the CRZWD model is 29.95 mm.Compared with the GPT3 model and another model using backpropagation neural network(BPNN),the accuracy has improved by 24.7%and 15.9%,respectively.Notably,over 56%of the test stations exhibit an improvement of more than 20%in contrast to GPT3-ZWD.Further temporal and spatial characteristic analyses also demonstrate the significant accuracy and stability advantages of the CRZWD model,indicating the potential prospects for GNSS-based applications.
基金Under the auspices of the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.32371875,32001249)。
文摘Stand age plays a crucial role in forest biomass estimation and carbon cycle modeling.Assessing the uncertainty of stand age prediction models and identifying the key driving factors in the modeling process have become major challenges in forestry research.In this study,we selected the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region of Northeast China as the research area and utilized multi-source datasets from the summer of 2019 to extract information on spectral,textural,climatic,water balance,and stand characteristics.By integrating the Random Forest(RF)model with Monte Carlo(MC)simulation,we constructed six regression models based on different combina-tions of features and evaluated the uncertainty of each model.Furthermore,we investigated the driving factors influencing stand age modeling by analyzing the effects of different types of features on age inversion.Model performance and accuracy were assessed using the root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and the coefficient of determination(R^(2)),while the relative root mean square error(rRMSE)was employed to quantify model uncertainty.The results indicate that the scenarios with more obvious improve-ment in accuracy and effective reduction in uncertainty were Scenario 3 with the inclusion of climate and water balance information(RMSE=25.54 yr,MAE=18.03 yr,R^(2)=0.51,rRMSE=19.17%)and Scenario 5 with the inclusion of stand characterization informa-tion(RMSE=18.47 yr,MAE=13.05 yr,R^(2)=0.74,rRMSE=16.99%).Scenario 6,incorporating all feature types,achieved the highest accuracy(RMSE=17.60 yr,MAE=12.06 yr,R^(2)=0.77,rRMSE=14.19%).In this study,elevation,minimum temperature,and diameter at breast height(DBH)emerged as the key drivers of stand-age modeling.The proposed method can be used to identify drivers and to quantify uncertainty in stand-age estimation,providing a useful reference for improving model accuracy and uncertainty assessment.
基金supported by the Ministry of Agriculture,Forestry,and Fisheries of Japan (25093 C)JSPS KAKENHI (JP23H02262)
文摘The growth of Sakhalin fir(Abies sachalinen-sis)seedlings,an important forest tree species in northern Hokkaido,Japan,is significantly affected by competition from surrounding vegetation,especially evergreen dwarf bamboo.In this study,we investigated the height and root collar diameter(RCD)growth of Sakhalin fir seedlings under various degrees of cover by deciduous vegetation and evergreen dwarf bamboo.Generalized additive models were used to quantify the effects of canopy cover and forest floor cover on the relative growth rates of these two parameters.The canopy cover of Sakhalin fir seedlings had a nonlin-ear negative effect on both the height growth of seedlings in the subsequent year and the RCD growth in the current year,given the general growth pattern in this species,where height growth ceases in early summer and RCD growth con-tinues until autumn.Height growth declined sharply after the canopy cover rate exceeded 50%,while RCD growth declined rapidly between 0 and 50%canopy cover rate.The forest floor cover had a greater negative impact on RCD growth than on height growth.These results suggested that Sakhalin fir seedlings respond to vegetative competition by prioritizing height growth for light acquisition at the expense of diameter growth and possibly root growth for below-ground competition.The cover of evergreen dwarf bamboo reduced the height growth of fir seedlings significantly more than the cover of deciduous vegetation.This difference is likely due to the timing of light availability.When competing with deciduous vegetation,Sakhalin fir seedlings exposed to light during the post-snow melt and early spring before the development of the deciduous vegetation canopy can photosynthesize more effectively,leading to greater height growth.The results of this study highlighted the importance of vegetation control considering the type of vegetation for successful Sakhalin fir reforestation.Adjusting the intensity and timing of weeding based on the presence and abundance of dwarf bamboo and other competing vegetation could potentially reduce weeding costs and increase biodiversity in reforested areas.
文摘【目的】耒阳市滑坡灾害频发,对人民生命财产和生态安全构成严重威胁。为提高滑坡易发性评价的精度,【方法】以湖南省耒阳市为研究区,构建信息量模型(information value model,IV)与随机森林模型(random forest,RF)耦合的IV-RF模型,引入空间约束采样策略优化负样本选取策略,开展滑坡易发性评价。通过ROC曲线和AUC值对3种模型进行对比分析,同时提出综合性能指数用于综合评价模型表现。【结果】1)IV-RF耦合模型表现优于单一模型,AUC=0.952,综合性能指数(Accuracy+F1+MCC)为2.593。极高-高易发区滑坡点分布密集,极低-低易发区滑坡点极少,验证模型具有较高的空间预测精度。2)工程地质岩组因子是影响研究区滑坡发育最重要的评价因子之一。【结论】IV-RF耦合模型结合IV的数据定量解译与RF的非线性识别能力,可有效提升模型识别精度,研究结果可为研究区滑坡灾害风险防控、水土保持和国土空间规划提供科学依据。
基金This work was supported by Natural Resources Canada and the Canadian Space Agency under Multisource Biomass GRIP and by the German Aerospace Centre for provision of TanDEM-X data。
文摘In our previous studies, we demonstrated the usefulness of TanDEM-X interferometric bistatic mode with single polarization to obtain forest heights for the purposes of large area mapping. A key feature of our approach has been the use of a simplified Random Volume Over Ground(RVOG) model that locally estimates forest height. The model takes TanDEM-X interferometric coherence amplitude as an input and uses an external Digital Surface Model(DSM) to account for local slope variations due to terrain topography in order to achieve accurate forest height estimation. The selection of DSM for use as a local slope reference is essential, as an inaccurate DSM will result in less accurate terrain-correction and forest height estimation. In this paper, we assessed TanDEM-X height estimates associated with scale variations in different DSMs used in the model over a remote sensing supersite in Petawawa, Canada. The DSMs used for assessments and comparisons included ASTER GDEM, ALOS GDSM, airborne DRAPE DSM, Canadian DSM and TanDEM-X DSM. Airborne Laser Scanning(ALS) data were used as reference for terrain slope and forest height comparisons. The results showed that, with the exception of the ASTER GDEM, all DSMs were sufficiently accurate for the simplified RVOG model to provide a satisfactory estimate of stand-level forest height. When compared to the ALS 95th height percentile, the modeled forest heights had R2 values greater than 80% and Root-Mean-Square Errors(RMSE)less than 2 m. For a close similarity in slope estimation with the ALS reference, coverage across Canada and open data access, the 0.75 arc-second(20 m) resolution Canadian DSM was selected as a preferred choice for the simplified RVOG model to provide TanDEM-X height estimation in Canada.
基金supported by the project of the China Geological Survey(DD20230591).
文摘To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information System(GIS)with integrated spatial data,a frequency ratio(FR)model,and a random forest(RF)model(also referred to as the coupled FR-RF model).The coupled FR-RF model was constructed based on the analysis of nine influential factors,including distance from roads,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and slope.The performance of the coupled FR-RF model was assessed using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)and Precision-Recall(PR)curves,yielding Area Under the Curve(AUC)values of 0.93 and 0.95,which indicate high predictive accuracy and reliability for geological hazard forecasting.Based on the model predictions,five susceptibility levels were determined in the study area,providing crucial spatial information for geologic hazard prevention and control.The contributions of various influential factors to landslide susceptibility were determined using SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis and the Gini index,enhancing the model interpretability and transparency.Additionally,this study discussed the limitations of the coupled FR-RF model and the prospects for its improvement using new technologies.This study provides an innovative method and theoretical support for geologic hazard prediction and management,holding promising prospects for application.
基金Under the auspices of the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2019YFA0606603)。
文摘Gross primary production(GPP)is a crucial indicator representing the absorption of atmospheric CO_(2) by vegetation.At present,the estimation of GPP by remote sensing is mainly based on leaf-related vegetation indexes and leaf-related biophysical para-meter leaf area index(LAI),which are not completely synchronized in seasonality with GPP.In this study,we proposed chlorophyll content-based light use efficiency model(CC-LUE)to improve GPP estimates,as chlorophyll is the direct site of photosynthesis,and only the light absorbed by chlorophyll is used in the photosynthetic process.The CC-LUE model is constructed by establishing a linear correlation between satellite-derived canopy chlorophyll content(Chlcanopy)and FPAR.This method was calibrated and validated utiliz-ing 7-d averaged in-situ GPP data from 14 eddy covariance flux towers covering deciduous broadleaf forest ecosystems across five dif-ferent climate zones.Results showed a relatively robust seasonal consistency between Chlcanopy with GPP in deciduous broadleaf forests under different climatic conditions.The CC-LUE model explained 88% of the in-situ GPP seasonality for all validation site-year and 56.0% of in-situ GPP variations through the growing season,outperforming the three widely used LUE models(MODIS-GPP algorithm,Vegetation Photosynthesis Model(VPM),and the eddy covariance-light use efficiency model(EC-LUE)).Additionally,the CC-LUE model(RMSE=0.50 g C/(m^(2)·d))significantly improved the underestimation of GPP during the growing season in semi-arid region,re-markably decreasing the root mean square error of averaged growing season GPP simulation and in-situ GPP by 75.4%,73.4%,and 37.5%,compared with MOD17(RMSE=2.03 g C/(m^(2)·d)),VPM(RMSE=1.88 g C/(m^(2)·d)),and EC-LUE(RMSE=0.80 g C/(m^(2)·d))model.The chlorophyll-based method proved superior in capturing the seasonal variations of GPP in forest ecosystems,thereby provid-ing the possibility of a more precise depiction of forest seasonal carbon uptake.
