Earthquakes are caused by the rapid slip along seismogenic faults.Whether large or small,there is inevitably a certain nucleation process involved before the dynamic rupture.At the same time,significant foreshock acti...Earthquakes are caused by the rapid slip along seismogenic faults.Whether large or small,there is inevitably a certain nucleation process involved before the dynamic rupture.At the same time,significant foreshock activity has been observed before some but not all large earthquakes.Understanding the nucleation process and foreshocks of earthquakes,especially large damaging ones,is crucial for accurate earthquake prediction and seismic hazard mitigation.The physical mechanism of earthquake nucleation and foreshock generation is still in debate.While the earthquake nucleation process is present in laboratory experiments and numerical simulations,it is difficult to observe such a process directly in the field.In addition,it is currently impossible to effectively distinguish foreshocks from ordinary earthquake sequences.In this article,we first summarize foreshock observations in the last decades and attempt to classify them into different types based on their temporal behaviors.Next,we present different mechanisms for earthquake nucleation and foreshocks that have been proposed so far.These physical models can be largely grouped into the following three categories:elastic stress triggering,aseismic slip,and fluid flows.We also review several recent studies of foreshock sequences before moderate to large earthquakes around the world,focusing on how different results/conclusions can be made by different datasets/methods.Finally,we offer some suggestions on how to move forward on the research topic of earthquake nucleation and foreshock mechanisms and their governing factors.展开更多
Ultra-low-frequency(ULF) waves are ubiquitous in terrestrial and planetary environments, playing a crucial role in energy transfer and dissipation through wave–particle interactions within space plasmas. By performin...Ultra-low-frequency(ULF) waves are ubiquitous in terrestrial and planetary environments, playing a crucial role in energy transfer and dissipation through wave–particle interactions within space plasmas. By performing a detailed event study in terms of particle distribution maps and wave–particle variable correlation maps, we report that ULF waves observed by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN(MAVEN) spacecraft in the Martian foreshock can effectively modulate the suprathermal electron fluxes by the magnetic field fluctuations. In particular, the variations in electron fluxes at energies of ~10–100 eV are significant in the perpendicular direction, showing good relationships with changes in the wave field strength characterized by a correlation coefficient ~0.8. These findings demonstrate the generality of interactions of ULF waves with electrons, even at these low energies, highlighting the importance of such processes throughout the heliosphere.展开更多
Monitoring the evolution of foreshocks can be a valuable way to analyze the nucleation process.Foreshocks accompanying moderate mainshocks have been recorded in the west of Yunnan Province,China.We obtain the earthqua...Monitoring the evolution of foreshocks can be a valuable way to analyze the nucleation process.Foreshocks accompanying moderate mainshocks have been recorded in the west of Yunnan Province,China.We obtain the earthquake catalog and source parameters of the 2016 Yunlong foreshocks,and discuss the implications for the nucleation processes of the earthquake in western Yunnan,China.By using the matched filter detection,we identify 343 foreshocks with a magnitude of -0.8-4.5,starting with a magnitude 1.0 foreshock approximately 3 months before the 2016 M_(S)5.1 Yunlong mainshock.The spatial distribution of foreshocks doesn’t show localization or directional migration towards the mainshock.Coulomb stress analysis suggests a positive stress perturbation at the mainshock nucleate area.These observations indicate a cascade-triggering mechanism of the 2016 Yunlong earthquakes.We further collect published catalogs of 2021 Yangbi and 2017 Yangbi foreshocks in the adjacent area,and analyze the temporal changes in b values.The temporal changes in b values reveal precursory drops before the mainshocks.展开更多
This study analyzed and summarized in detail the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes,tidal responses,focal mechanisms,and stress field characteristics for the M 7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence in Februa...This study analyzed and summarized in detail the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes,tidal responses,focal mechanisms,and stress field characteristics for the M 7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence in February 1975.The foreshocks are related to the main fault and the conjugate faults surrounding the extension step-over in the middle.The initiation timing of the foreshock clusters and the original time of the mainshock were clearly modulated by the Earth's tidal force and coincided with the peak of dilational volumetric tidal strain.As a plausible and testable hypothesis,we proposed a fluid-driven foreshock model,by which all observed seismicity features can be more reasonably interpreted with respect to the results of existing models.Together with some other known examples,the widely existing step-over along strike-slip faults and associated conjugate faults,especially for extensional ones in the presence of deep fluids,favor the occurrence of short-term foreshocks.Although clustered seismicity with characteristics similar to those of the studied case is not a sufficient and necessary condition for large earthquakes to occur under similar tectonic conditions,it undoubtedly has a warning significance for the criticality of the main fault.Subsequent testing would require quantification of true/false positives/negatives.展开更多
The control and management of mining-induced seismic hazards have attracted ever-rising attention,especially in underground longwall coal mines,where continuous mining activities dynamically alter the stress states an...The control and management of mining-induced seismic hazards have attracted ever-rising attention,especially in underground longwall coal mines,where continuous mining activities dynamically alter the stress states and induce seismic events.In this work,the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence(ETAS)model was applied to formulate the aftershock catalogue of mining-induced seismicity and investigate the formation of event triggering associated with longwall mining.The conventional Baiesi and Paczuski method(2004)was used to separate longwall mining-induced seismic events into triggered and nontriggered catalogues.The latter catalogue contains both non-triggering(NT)-isolated events that do not trigger subsequent events and NT-parent events of the former catalogue.Statistical properties of triggered events were analysed spatially and temporally.The temporal triggering sequence follows the Omori-Utsu law,where the temporal decay of aftershocks is influenced by the magnitude of NT-parent events in mining-induced seismicity.The spatial distribution of aftershocks follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with distance to their corresponding NT-parent events.The quantitative forecasting of triggered events was performed based on the nonhomogeneous Poisson distribution,which achieved a good consistency with their NT-parent events.Amongst the non-triggered catalogue,NT-isolated events are concentrated ahead of NT-parent events,potentially acting as foreshocks for the latter.展开更多
This paper briefly introduces the current research progress in the field of foreshocks,both in China and abroad,and contrasts the common characteristics and the mechanisms of foreshocks of the sequence under the defin...This paper briefly introduces the current research progress in the field of foreshocks,both in China and abroad,and contrasts the common characteristics and the mechanisms of foreshocks of the sequence under the definition of different conditions of foreshocks. The main recognition methods of foreshocks are briefly reviewed,and their characteristics and existing problems are reviewed and discussed. Foreshocks are small earthquakes that occur before the mainshock and adjacent to the main source location. A foreshock sequence is constituted of a series of foreshock activities that occur before the mainshock. The proportion of earthquake cases includes direct foreshocks ranging from 10% - 40% at different defined conditions of foreshocks. Theoretically,cascade model or pre-slid model can explain foreshocks. Foreshocks are mainly concentrated in the range of 10km -75 km of the mainshock,but their time distribution form is very complicated,mostly prior to the mainshock from 1 or 2 days,the seismicity rate of part of foreshock sequences shows significant acceleration features,but many foreshock sequences often show the attenuation characteristics of mainshock-aftershock sequences. The most prominent feature of foreshocks is a focal consistent mechanism and low b-value of earthquakes of the earthquake sequence. Foreshocks seems to have a certain relationship with tectonic environment and the rupture form of the mainshock,in limited foreshocks earthquake cases,the dip-thrusting earthquakes seem to have relatively more foreshocks. The results of some of the earthquake cases show that the focal depth of foreshocks gradually moved downward with the mainshock approaching. So far,it is difficult to determine whether an earthquake or an earthquake sequence is a foreshock or foreshock sequence before the mainshock. The identification methods of foreshocks mainly include a statistical method of analogy,focal consistent mechanism and related derivative method,the fine detection of the earthquake nucleation process. From a few existing studies of earthquake cases,in spite of earthquake temporal clusters and focal consistent mechanism being the most significant features of foreshock sequence,there were not sufficient conditions for judging a foreshock sequence. Because the rupture rate of expansion and sliding displacement have a tendency to increase faster with time,the method of fine detection of the earthquake nucleation process is expected to play a more important role in the identification of foreshocks,but it needs more earthquake examples to be verified.展开更多
In the paper, we analyze 117 moderate-strong earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland (Ms greater than or equal 5.5 in the east and Ms greater than or equal 6.0 in the west) since 1970, among them, 11 earthquakes (abo...In the paper, we analyze 117 moderate-strong earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland (Ms greater than or equal 5.5 in the east and Ms greater than or equal 6.0 in the west) since 1970, among them, 11 earthquakes (about 9%) have direct foreshocks and 63 earthquakes (about 51%) have generalized foreshocks. The predominant time interval between foreshock and main earthquake is no more than 30 days with a spatial distance less than 50 km and a magnitude difference over 1. From the digital seismic data in Liaoning Province, we know that direct foreshock had an obvious shear-stress background before the Ms=5.6 and Ms=5.1 Xiuyan earthquakes occurred on Nov. 29, 1999 and Jan.15, 2000.展开更多
The July 2019 M_(W)6.4 Ridgecrest,California earthquake and its distinct foreshocks were well recorded by local and regional stations,providing a great opportunity to characterize its foreshocks and investigate the nu...The July 2019 M_(W)6.4 Ridgecrest,California earthquake and its distinct foreshocks were well recorded by local and regional stations,providing a great opportunity to characterize its foreshocks and investigate the nucleation mechanisms of the mainshock.In this study,we utilized the match-and-locate(M&L)method to build a high-precision foreshock catalog for this M_(W)6.4 earthquake.Compared with the sequential location methods(matched-filter+cross-correlation-based hypoDD),our new catalog contains more events with higher location accuracy.The M_(W)6.4 mainshock was preceded by 40 foreshocks within~2 h(on July 4,2019 from 15:35:29 to 17:32:52,UTC).Their spatiotemporal distribution revealed a complex seismogenic structure consisting of multiple fault strands,which were connected as a throughgoing fault by later foreshocks and eventually accommodated the 2019 M_(W)6.4 mainshock.To better understand the nucleation mechanism,we determined the rupture dimension of the largest M_(L)4.0 foreshock by calculating its initial rupture and centroid points using the M&L method.By estimating Coulomb stress change we suggested that the majority of foreshocks following the M_(L)4.0 event and M_(W)6.4 mainshock occurred within regions of increasing Coulomb stress,indicating that they were triggered by stress transfer.The nucleation process before the M_(L)4.0 event remains unclear due to the insufficient sampling rate of waveforms and small magnitude of events.Thus,our study demonstrates that the M&L method has superior detection and location ability,showing potential for studies that require high-precision location(e.g.,earthquake nucleation).展开更多
Foreshock ultralow frequency (ULF) waves constitute a significant physical phenomenon in the plasma environment of terrestrial planets. The occurrence of these waves, associated with backstreaming particles reflected ...Foreshock ultralow frequency (ULF) waves constitute a significant physical phenomenon in the plasma environment of terrestrial planets. The occurrence of these waves, associated with backstreaming particles reflected and accelerated at the bow shock, implies specific conditions and properties of the shock and its foreshock. Using magnetic field and ion measurements from MAVEN, we report a clear event of ULF waves in the Martian foreshock. The interplanetary magnetic field connected to the Martian bow shock, forming a shock angle of ~51°. Indicating that this was a fast mode wave is the fact that ion density varied in phase with perturbations of the wave field. The peak frequency of the waves was about 0.040 Hz in the spacecraft frame, much lower than the local proton gyrofrequency (~0.088 Hz). The ULF waves had a propagation angle approximately 34° from ambient magnetic field and were accompanied by the whistler mode. The ULF waves displayed left-hand elliptical polarization with respect to the interplanetary magnetic field in the spacecraft frame. All these properties fit very well with foreshock waves excited by interactions between solar wind and backstreaming ions through right-hand beam instability.展开更多
Based on the data of first motion of 11 earthquake sequences with ML ≥ 3.0 recorded by the Telemetric Seismic Network of Shanxi since the 1980s, the first motion characteristics of each earthquake sequence were studi...Based on the data of first motion of 11 earthquake sequences with ML ≥ 3.0 recorded by the Telemetric Seismic Network of Shanxi since the 1980s, the first motion characteristics of each earthquake sequence were studied. It is known that earthquake sequences of different types have different consistency characteristics of focal mechanism. The decrease and increase of the first motion contradictory sign ratios could be taken as an index to judge whether there would still be a larger earthquake to come after the earthquake sequence.展开更多
We have continued investigation of waves in the regions of undisturbed solar wind, foreshock and magnetosheath. The analysis of ion flux and magnetic field variations with the time interval 1-240s was performed in the...We have continued investigation of waves in the regions of undisturbed solar wind, foreshock and magnetosheath. The analysis of ion flux and magnetic field variations with the time interval 1-240s was performed in the regions above. Very large variation in such a time interval can be considered the common feature of the foreshock and magnetosheath. The results of case and statistical studies showed that the level of relative variations of ion flux and magnetic field magnitude in foreshock is about 3 times larger than in undisturbed solar wind. Variations of these parameters in the magnetosheath topologically connected with the quasi-parallel bow shock are about two times larger than those behind the quasi-perpendicular. We also compared the results from Interball-1 data analysis with those from statistical analysis of cluster magnetic field measurements. The magnetic field variations obtained from the different satellite data coincide with each other very well not only in quality but also in quantity.展开更多
Taking the 2013 Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake as a research subject, on the basis of statistical analysis of earthquake sequence using the HypoDD location method and focal mechanism solutions,the paper analyzes and discu...Taking the 2013 Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake as a research subject, on the basis of statistical analysis of earthquake sequence using the HypoDD location method and focal mechanism solutions,the paper analyzes and discusses the relationship between the ML4. 4 and MS5. 3 earthquakes. The results show that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake occurred under the background of medium-small earthquakes long-term quiescence and short-term enhancement in the epicentral area. The results of accurate seismic location shows that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake sequence is distributed in the NW direction,extending 10 km,and the ML≥3. 0 aftershocks are concentrated south of the mainshock. The distance between the MS5. 3 mainshock and the ML4. 4 foreshock is about 1. 8 km,with a focal depth of 7. 208 km and 7. 089 km,respectively,their focal location is very close,and may have occurred on the same fault plane. The results of focal mechanism shows that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake is of the strike-slip type,the focal mechanism of aftershocks are disordered,and with time lapse,the type is changed from strike-slip to thrust and normal faulting. The bigger foreshocks had similar focal mechanism and were all normal fault types,which exhibits to some extent,an obvious crustal medium anisotropy in the epicentral area before macroscopic rupturing,as represented by alignment fractures,with stress action enhanced,this"consistency"of seismic precursor regime would gestate the mainshock. According to the characteristics of temporal-spatial distribution of earthquake sequence and similarity of focal mechanism,we judge that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake sequence is a foreshock-mainshock-aftershock type.展开更多
Three different degrees of heterogeneous fault models are simulated by using 2-D random dynamic cellular automata models for analyzing macroscopic behaviors of seismic activity evolution influenced by heterogeneity of...Three different degrees of heterogeneous fault models are simulated by using 2-D random dynamic cellular automata models for analyzing macroscopic behaviors of seismic activity evolution influenced by heterogeneity of fault structures. The results show that the heterogeneities of fault structures can influence evolution properties of the foreshock activity and rupture process, such as the mediate heterogeneous and less heterogeneous structures, which show relatively higher ASR rates and more significant seismic gaps before main shocks. Besides, stress drop distribution ranges of the foreshock events when approaching a main shock show more homogenous (narrower) than that of the foreshock events far from a main shock. So the heterogeneity of fault structures plays an important role in strong earthquake preparation processes.展开更多
On the 3rd of April 2017, an earthquake of moment magnitude 6.5 occurred near Moiyabana in central Botswana. This paper is aimed at studying the spatial distribution of the foreshock and aftershock sequences associate...On the 3rd of April 2017, an earthquake of moment magnitude 6.5 occurred near Moiyabana in central Botswana. This paper is aimed at studying the spatial distribution of the foreshock and aftershock sequences associated with the Moiyabana earthquake. The foreshocks and aftershocks data used were from the Botswana Geoscience Institute (BGI) and the Seisan software was used to analyze the foreshock and aftershock events. The analyses revealed nine epicenter locations of foreshocks which are spread out across the country and most of them are located in the central and southern parts of Botswana, while the aftershocks are clustered around the mainshock. Although five of the nine foreshocks occurred far from the boundaries of major tectonic units, the other four occurred near key features such as the Zoetfontein, Lecha and Chobe faults. The spatial distribution of aftershocks indicates that the stress released by the mainshock, re-activated the planes of weakness in the vicinity of the mainshock and farther away from the mainshock. Hence, this affected the Zoetfontein fault, the boundary between Passarge basin and Magondi belt and the boundary between the Kaapvaal craton and Limpopo mobile belt. The aftershocks also show a northwest-southeast trend, which probably indicates the rupture plane;and mainly lie within the Limpopo mobile belt that is sandwiched between the Kaapvaal craton to the south and Zimbabwe craton to the north. Furthermore, the aftershocks concentration to the south reveals a close relation in demarcating the boundary of the Kaapvaal craton and the Limpopo mobile belt.展开更多
The time analysis of seismic events preceding several strong earthquakes occurred in recent decades throughout the world, has highlighted some foreshocks’ characteristics, which are helpful for their discrimination c...The time analysis of seismic events preceding several strong earthquakes occurred in recent decades throughout the world, has highlighted some foreshocks’ characteristics, which are helpful for their discrimination compared to other types of events. These features can be identified within the seismic sequence and used as strong events’ precursors. Through the energy release pattern analysis, which precedes any strong earthquakes, in this study we describe some graphical procedures suitable for distinguishing a foreshock from any other type of earthquake. We have broadly divided foreshocks into two classes, depending on their position within the energy release pattern, by describing some relationships between the foreshock’s magnitude and the following earthquake’s. The results obtained show how the energy release pattern of some major earthquakes has distinctive features and repeatability which it is possible to obtain information from in order to perform sufficiently reliable short-term forecasts.展开更多
Based on previous research work,we present a spectrum deviation method to recognize a foreshock or generalized foreshock in this paper. The criterion to determine whether an event is a foreshock is a wide spectrum for...Based on previous research work,we present a spectrum deviation method to recognize a foreshock or generalized foreshock in this paper. The criterion to determine whether an event is a foreshock is a wide spectrum for an ordinary event,however,a moderate earthquake with foreshock or generalized foreshock has the characteristics of a narrow frequency band,and it deviates to the low frequency. It may be explained by metastable extension in the rupture source or related area of the main shock or regional fragmentation damage and crack nucleation process. The calculation results of two foreshocks,the M_S4. 7 event which occurred before the Yushu M_S7. 1 earthquake on April 14,2010 and the M_S5. 3 event which occurred before the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake on February 12,2014,show that the spectra of foreshocks shift,and they are quite different from the nonforeshock seismic spectrum of equivalent size. Therefore,this result can verify the validity of the spectrum deviation method.展开更多
We analyzed 223 earthquakes with M 1〉 5.0 that occurred in the Yunnan region during 1965 - 2014, among which 74 （ about 33. 2 % ） had foreshocks. There are great differences in foreshock populations in different te...We analyzed 223 earthquakes with M 1〉 5.0 that occurred in the Yunnan region during 1965 - 2014, among which 74 （ about 33. 2 % ） had foreshocks. There are great differences in foreshock populations in different tectonic blocks： the most abundant foreshocks occurred in the Lancang-Gengma and Tengchong-Baoshan blocks, which have the most abundant foreshocks in the Yunnan region. The predominant magnitude difference, time interval and spatial distance are 0. 5 -2. 9, within 10 days and within 20km, respectively. These characteristics can be used to forecast the mainshock after the identification of a foreshock.展开更多
In the early morning of April 14th, 2010, a strong earth- quake (Ms7.1, http://www.csndmc.ac.cn; Mw6.9, http://neic. usgs.gov) occurred in Yushu district, Qinghai Province, China. More than 2000 lives were lost and ov...In the early morning of April 14th, 2010, a strong earth- quake (Ms7.1, http://www.csndmc.ac.cn; Mw6.9, http://neic. usgs.gov) occurred in Yushu district, Qinghai Province, China. More than 2000 lives were lost and over 100000 injured,展开更多
基金supported by U.S.National Science Foundation grant RISE-2425889.
文摘Earthquakes are caused by the rapid slip along seismogenic faults.Whether large or small,there is inevitably a certain nucleation process involved before the dynamic rupture.At the same time,significant foreshock activity has been observed before some but not all large earthquakes.Understanding the nucleation process and foreshocks of earthquakes,especially large damaging ones,is crucial for accurate earthquake prediction and seismic hazard mitigation.The physical mechanism of earthquake nucleation and foreshock generation is still in debate.While the earthquake nucleation process is present in laboratory experiments and numerical simulations,it is difficult to observe such a process directly in the field.In addition,it is currently impossible to effectively distinguish foreshocks from ordinary earthquake sequences.In this article,we first summarize foreshock observations in the last decades and attempt to classify them into different types based on their temporal behaviors.Next,we present different mechanisms for earthquake nucleation and foreshocks that have been proposed so far.These physical models can be largely grouped into the following three categories:elastic stress triggering,aseismic slip,and fluid flows.We also review several recent studies of foreshock sequences before moderate to large earthquakes around the world,focusing on how different results/conclusions can be made by different datasets/methods.Finally,we offer some suggestions on how to move forward on the research topic of earthquake nucleation and foreshock mechanisms and their governing factors.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42188101, 42174188, 42474217, 42330207, 42374193, 42241143, and 42025404)the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant Nos. 2022YFF0503700 and 2022YFF0503900)。
文摘Ultra-low-frequency(ULF) waves are ubiquitous in terrestrial and planetary environments, playing a crucial role in energy transfer and dissipation through wave–particle interactions within space plasmas. By performing a detailed event study in terms of particle distribution maps and wave–particle variable correlation maps, we report that ULF waves observed by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN(MAVEN) spacecraft in the Martian foreshock can effectively modulate the suprathermal electron fluxes by the magnetic field fluctuations. In particular, the variations in electron fluxes at energies of ~10–100 eV are significant in the perpendicular direction, showing good relationships with changes in the wave field strength characterized by a correlation coefficient ~0.8. These findings demonstrate the generality of interactions of ULF waves with electrons, even at these low energies, highlighting the importance of such processes throughout the heliosphere.
基金supported by the Laoshan Laboratory project(LSKJ202204100)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U2344221,92158205,42406064)+2 种基金Hong Kong Research Grant Council Grants(14306122)the Taishan Scholar Foundation of Shandong Province(tstp20230638)Shandong Province Outstanding Youth Science Fund Project Overseas(2023HWYQ-099).
文摘Monitoring the evolution of foreshocks can be a valuable way to analyze the nucleation process.Foreshocks accompanying moderate mainshocks have been recorded in the west of Yunnan Province,China.We obtain the earthquake catalog and source parameters of the 2016 Yunlong foreshocks,and discuss the implications for the nucleation processes of the earthquake in western Yunnan,China.By using the matched filter detection,we identify 343 foreshocks with a magnitude of -0.8-4.5,starting with a magnitude 1.0 foreshock approximately 3 months before the 2016 M_(S)5.1 Yunlong mainshock.The spatial distribution of foreshocks doesn’t show localization or directional migration towards the mainshock.Coulomb stress analysis suggests a positive stress perturbation at the mainshock nucleate area.These observations indicate a cascade-triggering mechanism of the 2016 Yunlong earthquakes.We further collect published catalogs of 2021 Yangbi and 2017 Yangbi foreshocks in the adjacent area,and analyze the temporal changes in b values.The temporal changes in b values reveal precursory drops before the mainshocks.
基金jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Project(2018YFC1503301)the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(NSFC)(U1839211)the fundamental scientific research project of the Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration(IGCEA2123)。
文摘This study analyzed and summarized in detail the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes,tidal responses,focal mechanisms,and stress field characteristics for the M 7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence in February 1975.The foreshocks are related to the main fault and the conjugate faults surrounding the extension step-over in the middle.The initiation timing of the foreshock clusters and the original time of the mainshock were clearly modulated by the Earth's tidal force and coincided with the peak of dilational volumetric tidal strain.As a plausible and testable hypothesis,we proposed a fluid-driven foreshock model,by which all observed seismicity features can be more reasonably interpreted with respect to the results of existing models.Together with some other known examples,the widely existing step-over along strike-slip faults and associated conjugate faults,especially for extensional ones in the presence of deep fluids,favor the occurrence of short-term foreshocks.Although clustered seismicity with characteristics similar to those of the studied case is not a sufficient and necessary condition for large earthquakes to occur under similar tectonic conditions,it undoubtedly has a warning significance for the criticality of the main fault.Subsequent testing would require quantification of true/false positives/negatives.
基金support from Australian Research Council(Grant No.LP200301404)support from the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2020CXNL02)is also much appreciated.
文摘The control and management of mining-induced seismic hazards have attracted ever-rising attention,especially in underground longwall coal mines,where continuous mining activities dynamically alter the stress states and induce seismic events.In this work,the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence(ETAS)model was applied to formulate the aftershock catalogue of mining-induced seismicity and investigate the formation of event triggering associated with longwall mining.The conventional Baiesi and Paczuski method(2004)was used to separate longwall mining-induced seismic events into triggered and nontriggered catalogues.The latter catalogue contains both non-triggering(NT)-isolated events that do not trigger subsequent events and NT-parent events of the former catalogue.Statistical properties of triggered events were analysed spatially and temporally.The temporal triggering sequence follows the Omori-Utsu law,where the temporal decay of aftershocks is influenced by the magnitude of NT-parent events in mining-induced seismicity.The spatial distribution of aftershocks follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with distance to their corresponding NT-parent events.The quantitative forecasting of triggered events was performed based on the nonhomogeneous Poisson distribution,which achieved a good consistency with their NT-parent events.Amongst the non-triggered catalogue,NT-isolated events are concentrated ahead of NT-parent events,potentially acting as foreshocks for the latter.
基金supported by the Special Task for Science and Technology Project of the Department of Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction,CEA in 2016(1640501320212)
文摘This paper briefly introduces the current research progress in the field of foreshocks,both in China and abroad,and contrasts the common characteristics and the mechanisms of foreshocks of the sequence under the definition of different conditions of foreshocks. The main recognition methods of foreshocks are briefly reviewed,and their characteristics and existing problems are reviewed and discussed. Foreshocks are small earthquakes that occur before the mainshock and adjacent to the main source location. A foreshock sequence is constituted of a series of foreshock activities that occur before the mainshock. The proportion of earthquake cases includes direct foreshocks ranging from 10% - 40% at different defined conditions of foreshocks. Theoretically,cascade model or pre-slid model can explain foreshocks. Foreshocks are mainly concentrated in the range of 10km -75 km of the mainshock,but their time distribution form is very complicated,mostly prior to the mainshock from 1 or 2 days,the seismicity rate of part of foreshock sequences shows significant acceleration features,but many foreshock sequences often show the attenuation characteristics of mainshock-aftershock sequences. The most prominent feature of foreshocks is a focal consistent mechanism and low b-value of earthquakes of the earthquake sequence. Foreshocks seems to have a certain relationship with tectonic environment and the rupture form of the mainshock,in limited foreshocks earthquake cases,the dip-thrusting earthquakes seem to have relatively more foreshocks. The results of some of the earthquake cases show that the focal depth of foreshocks gradually moved downward with the mainshock approaching. So far,it is difficult to determine whether an earthquake or an earthquake sequence is a foreshock or foreshock sequence before the mainshock. The identification methods of foreshocks mainly include a statistical method of analogy,focal consistent mechanism and related derivative method,the fine detection of the earthquake nucleation process. From a few existing studies of earthquake cases,in spite of earthquake temporal clusters and focal consistent mechanism being the most significant features of foreshock sequence,there were not sufficient conditions for judging a foreshock sequence. Because the rupture rate of expansion and sliding displacement have a tendency to increase faster with time,the method of fine detection of the earthquake nucleation process is expected to play a more important role in the identification of foreshocks,but it needs more earthquake examples to be verified.
基金Key Project of State Science and Technology in the tenth Five-year Plan (2001BA601B01-01-02).
文摘In the paper, we analyze 117 moderate-strong earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland (Ms greater than or equal 5.5 in the east and Ms greater than or equal 6.0 in the west) since 1970, among them, 11 earthquakes (about 9%) have direct foreshocks and 63 earthquakes (about 51%) have generalized foreshocks. The predominant time interval between foreshock and main earthquake is no more than 30 days with a spatial distance less than 50 km and a magnitude difference over 1. From the digital seismic data in Liaoning Province, we know that direct foreshock had an obvious shear-stress background before the Ms=5.6 and Ms=5.1 Xiuyan earthquakes occurred on Nov. 29, 1999 and Jan.15, 2000.
基金This work was co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U1939203 and 41874063)China Earthquake Science Experiment project,China Earthquake Administration(No.2019CSES0113)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(2-9-2019-172)Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant(RGPIN-2019-04297)the Ocean Frontier Institute International Postdoctoral Program.
文摘The July 2019 M_(W)6.4 Ridgecrest,California earthquake and its distinct foreshocks were well recorded by local and regional stations,providing a great opportunity to characterize its foreshocks and investigate the nucleation mechanisms of the mainshock.In this study,we utilized the match-and-locate(M&L)method to build a high-precision foreshock catalog for this M_(W)6.4 earthquake.Compared with the sequential location methods(matched-filter+cross-correlation-based hypoDD),our new catalog contains more events with higher location accuracy.The M_(W)6.4 mainshock was preceded by 40 foreshocks within~2 h(on July 4,2019 from 15:35:29 to 17:32:52,UTC).Their spatiotemporal distribution revealed a complex seismogenic structure consisting of multiple fault strands,which were connected as a throughgoing fault by later foreshocks and eventually accommodated the 2019 M_(W)6.4 mainshock.To better understand the nucleation mechanism,we determined the rupture dimension of the largest M_(L)4.0 foreshock by calculating its initial rupture and centroid points using the M&L method.By estimating Coulomb stress change we suggested that the majority of foreshocks following the M_(L)4.0 event and M_(W)6.4 mainshock occurred within regions of increasing Coulomb stress,indicating that they were triggered by stress transfer.The nucleation process before the M_(L)4.0 event remains unclear due to the insufficient sampling rate of waveforms and small magnitude of events.Thus,our study demonstrates that the M&L method has superior detection and location ability,showing potential for studies that require high-precision location(e.g.,earthquake nucleation).
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFB0501300, 2016YFB0501304)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No.41774187, 41674168, 41774176)+2 种基金Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission (Grant No.Z191100004319001)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.XDA14040404)the pre-research Project on Civil Aerospace Technologies No.D020103 funded by CNSA
文摘Foreshock ultralow frequency (ULF) waves constitute a significant physical phenomenon in the plasma environment of terrestrial planets. The occurrence of these waves, associated with backstreaming particles reflected and accelerated at the bow shock, implies specific conditions and properties of the shock and its foreshock. Using magnetic field and ion measurements from MAVEN, we report a clear event of ULF waves in the Martian foreshock. The interplanetary magnetic field connected to the Martian bow shock, forming a shock angle of ~51°. Indicating that this was a fast mode wave is the fact that ion density varied in phase with perturbations of the wave field. The peak frequency of the waves was about 0.040 Hz in the spacecraft frame, much lower than the local proton gyrofrequency (~0.088 Hz). The ULF waves had a propagation angle approximately 34° from ambient magnetic field and were accompanied by the whistler mode. The ULF waves displayed left-hand elliptical polarization with respect to the interplanetary magnetic field in the spacecraft frame. All these properties fit very well with foreshock waves excited by interactions between solar wind and backstreaming ions through right-hand beam instability.
文摘Based on the data of first motion of 11 earthquake sequences with ML ≥ 3.0 recorded by the Telemetric Seismic Network of Shanxi since the 1980s, the first motion characteristics of each earthquake sequence were studied. It is known that earthquake sequences of different types have different consistency characteristics of focal mechanism. The decrease and increase of the first motion contradictory sign ratios could be taken as an index to judge whether there would still be a larger earthquake to come after the earthquake sequence.
基金Project supported by the Russian Fund for Basic Research （RFBR 04-02-16152 and RFBR 04-02-39004）, Nauchnaya Shkola （NSh-5359.2006.2）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No 40325010）, RFBR-NSFC （2005--2006） and the China-Russia Joint Research Center on Space Weather, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘We have continued investigation of waves in the regions of undisturbed solar wind, foreshock and magnetosheath. The analysis of ion flux and magnetic field variations with the time interval 1-240s was performed in the regions above. Very large variation in such a time interval can be considered the common feature of the foreshock and magnetosheath. The results of case and statistical studies showed that the level of relative variations of ion flux and magnetic field magnitude in foreshock is about 3 times larger than in undisturbed solar wind. Variations of these parameters in the magnetosheath topologically connected with the quasi-parallel bow shock are about two times larger than those behind the quasi-perpendicular. We also compared the results from Interball-1 data analysis with those from statistical analysis of cluster magnetic field measurements. The magnetic field variations obtained from the different satellite data coincide with each other very well not only in quality but also in quantity.
基金Science and Technology MajorProject of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,entitled“Research,development and promotion of earthquake prediction and early warning technology in key areas”.Seismic Regime Tracking Project of CEA,No.2018010124
文摘Taking the 2013 Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake as a research subject, on the basis of statistical analysis of earthquake sequence using the HypoDD location method and focal mechanism solutions,the paper analyzes and discusses the relationship between the ML4. 4 and MS5. 3 earthquakes. The results show that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake occurred under the background of medium-small earthquakes long-term quiescence and short-term enhancement in the epicentral area. The results of accurate seismic location shows that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake sequence is distributed in the NW direction,extending 10 km,and the ML≥3. 0 aftershocks are concentrated south of the mainshock. The distance between the MS5. 3 mainshock and the ML4. 4 foreshock is about 1. 8 km,with a focal depth of 7. 208 km and 7. 089 km,respectively,their focal location is very close,and may have occurred on the same fault plane. The results of focal mechanism shows that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake is of the strike-slip type,the focal mechanism of aftershocks are disordered,and with time lapse,the type is changed from strike-slip to thrust and normal faulting. The bigger foreshocks had similar focal mechanism and were all normal fault types,which exhibits to some extent,an obvious crustal medium anisotropy in the epicentral area before macroscopic rupturing,as represented by alignment fractures,with stress action enhanced,this"consistency"of seismic precursor regime would gestate the mainshock. According to the characteristics of temporal-spatial distribution of earthquake sequence and similarity of focal mechanism,we judge that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake sequence is a foreshock-mainshock-aftershock type.
文摘Three different degrees of heterogeneous fault models are simulated by using 2-D random dynamic cellular automata models for analyzing macroscopic behaviors of seismic activity evolution influenced by heterogeneity of fault structures. The results show that the heterogeneities of fault structures can influence evolution properties of the foreshock activity and rupture process, such as the mediate heterogeneous and less heterogeneous structures, which show relatively higher ASR rates and more significant seismic gaps before main shocks. Besides, stress drop distribution ranges of the foreshock events when approaching a main shock show more homogenous (narrower) than that of the foreshock events far from a main shock. So the heterogeneity of fault structures plays an important role in strong earthquake preparation processes.
文摘On the 3rd of April 2017, an earthquake of moment magnitude 6.5 occurred near Moiyabana in central Botswana. This paper is aimed at studying the spatial distribution of the foreshock and aftershock sequences associated with the Moiyabana earthquake. The foreshocks and aftershocks data used were from the Botswana Geoscience Institute (BGI) and the Seisan software was used to analyze the foreshock and aftershock events. The analyses revealed nine epicenter locations of foreshocks which are spread out across the country and most of them are located in the central and southern parts of Botswana, while the aftershocks are clustered around the mainshock. Although five of the nine foreshocks occurred far from the boundaries of major tectonic units, the other four occurred near key features such as the Zoetfontein, Lecha and Chobe faults. The spatial distribution of aftershocks indicates that the stress released by the mainshock, re-activated the planes of weakness in the vicinity of the mainshock and farther away from the mainshock. Hence, this affected the Zoetfontein fault, the boundary between Passarge basin and Magondi belt and the boundary between the Kaapvaal craton and Limpopo mobile belt. The aftershocks also show a northwest-southeast trend, which probably indicates the rupture plane;and mainly lie within the Limpopo mobile belt that is sandwiched between the Kaapvaal craton to the south and Zimbabwe craton to the north. Furthermore, the aftershocks concentration to the south reveals a close relation in demarcating the boundary of the Kaapvaal craton and the Limpopo mobile belt.
文摘The time analysis of seismic events preceding several strong earthquakes occurred in recent decades throughout the world, has highlighted some foreshocks’ characteristics, which are helpful for their discrimination compared to other types of events. These features can be identified within the seismic sequence and used as strong events’ precursors. Through the energy release pattern analysis, which precedes any strong earthquakes, in this study we describe some graphical procedures suitable for distinguishing a foreshock from any other type of earthquake. We have broadly divided foreshocks into two classes, depending on their position within the energy release pattern, by describing some relationships between the foreshock’s magnitude and the following earthquake’s. The results obtained show how the energy release pattern of some major earthquakes has distinctive features and repeatability which it is possible to obtain information from in order to perform sufficiently reliable short-term forecasts.
基金sponsored by the National Key Technology Support Program of China entitled "Application of Digital Seismic Technology to Mid-and Short-term Prediction of Strong Earthquake"(2012BAK19B02-01)
文摘Based on previous research work,we present a spectrum deviation method to recognize a foreshock or generalized foreshock in this paper. The criterion to determine whether an event is a foreshock is a wide spectrum for an ordinary event,however,a moderate earthquake with foreshock or generalized foreshock has the characteristics of a narrow frequency band,and it deviates to the low frequency. It may be explained by metastable extension in the rupture source or related area of the main shock or regional fragmentation damage and crack nucleation process. The calculation results of two foreshocks,the M_S4. 7 event which occurred before the Yushu M_S7. 1 earthquake on April 14,2010 and the M_S5. 3 event which occurred before the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake on February 12,2014,show that the spectra of foreshocks shift,and they are quite different from the nonforeshock seismic spectrum of equivalent size. Therefore,this result can verify the validity of the spectrum deviation method.
基金funded by the Database Establishment of Foreshocks before the M_W≥6.0 Earthquakes Worldwidethe Science and Technology Project of the Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province
文摘We analyzed 223 earthquakes with M 1〉 5.0 that occurred in the Yunnan region during 1965 - 2014, among which 74 （ about 33. 2 % ） had foreshocks. There are great differences in foreshock populations in different tectonic blocks： the most abundant foreshocks occurred in the Lancang-Gengma and Tengchong-Baoshan blocks, which have the most abundant foreshocks in the Yunnan region. The predominant magnitude difference, time interval and spatial distance are 0. 5 -2. 9, within 10 days and within 20km, respectively. These characteristics can be used to forecast the mainshock after the identification of a foreshock.
基金supported by Chinese Academy of Science Fund (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-116-1)China Earthquake Administration Fund (Grant No. 200808078)
文摘In the early morning of April 14th, 2010, a strong earth- quake (Ms7.1, http://www.csndmc.ac.cn; Mw6.9, http://neic. usgs.gov) occurred in Yushu district, Qinghai Province, China. More than 2000 lives were lost and over 100000 injured,
