Symposium overview The International Symposium on Earthquake Forecasting to Commemorate the 50th Anniversary of the 1975 Haicheng M7.3 Earthquake,Liaoning,China,was held in Shenyang,China,from 8 to 11 July 2025.The sy...Symposium overview The International Symposium on Earthquake Forecasting to Commemorate the 50th Anniversary of the 1975 Haicheng M7.3 Earthquake,Liaoning,China,was held in Shenyang,China,from 8 to 11 July 2025.The symposium was organized by the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration(CEA),the State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics and Forecasting,and the China Seismic Experimental Site(CSES),in collaboration with the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior(IASPEI),the APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Science(ACES).展开更多
Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware los...Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware loss function is proposed for accurate multistep wind speed forecasting.In this model,the wind speed data is first denoised using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform.Next,an encoder-decoder network based on a temporal convolutional network,bidirectional gated recurrent unit,and multihead self-attention is employed for forecasting.Additionally,to enhance the ability of the model to identify temporal dynamics,a shape-aware loss function,ITILDE-Q,is employed in the model.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,a comparative experiment and an ablation experiment were conducted using three datasets of measured wind speeds.Three error metrics and a similarity metric were adopted for comprehensive evaluation.The experimental results showed that the proposed model consistently outperforms benchmark models in all tested forecasting scenarios,with particularly pronounced differences in performance over longer forecast horizons.Furthermore,the synergistic interaction of the three key components contributes to the extraordinary performance of the proposed model.展开更多
With the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy,flexible resources are highly needed to hedge the growing uncertainty,and variability in the power system.Demand response has served as a cost-effective typ...With the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy,flexible resources are highly needed to hedge the growing uncertainty,and variability in the power system.Demand response has served as a cost-effective type of flexible resource in recent years.In order to balance the uncertainty of the system,it is crucial to assess how much flexibility demand response programs can provide.Thus,forecasting demand response potential is important for the operation of the bulk system.This paper proposes a modeling approach that can characterize the multi-timescale flexibility of demand response so that not only the power potential but also temporal-coupling characteristics can be considered.Furthermore,a day-ahead demand response potential forecasting method is proposed using deep convolutional generative adversarial networks.The proposed forecasting method is tested using data from 170 users in Pecan Street Dataport.The results show that the proposed method can forecast the multi-timescale flexibility of demand response with high accuracy.展开更多
Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed...Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed among forecast results produced by different ensemble members when applied to South China.To enhance the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region,it is essential to develop new methods that can effectively leverage multiple predictive models.This study introduces a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning to improve forecast accuracy.We utilized ensemble forecasts from three models:the Integrated Forecasting System model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,and the Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3 model from the China Meteorological Administration.The ensemble weights are trained using an online learning approach.The results indicate that the forecasts obtained through online learning outperform those of the original dynamical models.Compared to the simple ensemble results of the three models,the weighted ensemble model showed a stronger capability to capture temperature and precipitation patterns in South China.Therefore,this method has the potential to improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region.展开更多
This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administratio...This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.展开更多
The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and na...The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.展开更多
Accurate photovoltaic(PV)power generation forecasting is essential for the efficient integration of renewable energy into power grids.However,the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of PV power signals,driven...Accurate photovoltaic(PV)power generation forecasting is essential for the efficient integration of renewable energy into power grids.However,the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of PV power signals,driven by fluctuating weather conditions,pose significant challenges for reliable prediction.This study proposes a DOEP(Decomposition–Optimization–Error Correction–Prediction)framework,a hybrid forecasting approach that integrates adaptive signal decomposition,machine learning,metaheuristic optimization,and error correction.The PV power signal is first decomposed using CEEMDAN to extract multi-scale temporal features.Subsequently,the hyperparameters and window sizes of the LSSVM are optimized using a Segment-based EBQPSO strategy.The main novelty of the proposed DOEP framework lies in the incorporation of Segment-based EBQPSO as a structured optimization mechanism that balances elite exploitation and population diversity during LSSVM tuning within the CEEMDAN-based forecasting pipeline.This strategy effectively mitigates convergence instability and sensitivity to initialization,which are common limitations in existing hybrid PV forecasting models.Each IMF is then predicted individually and aggregated to generate an initial forecast.In the error-correction stage,the residual error series is modeled using LSTM,and the final prediction is obtained by combining the initial forecast with the predicted error component.The proposed framework is evaluated using two PV power plant datasets with different levels of complexity.The results demonstrate that DOEP consistently outperforms benchmark models across multiple error-based and goodness-of-fit metrics,achieving MSE reductions of approximately 15%–60%on the ResPV-BDG dataset and 37%–92%on the NREL dataset.Analyses of predicted vs.observed values and residual distributions further confirm the superior calibration and robustness of the proposed approach.Although the DOEP framework entails higher computational costs than single model methods,it delivers significantly improved accuracy and stability for PV power forecasting under complex operating conditions.展开更多
Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning ...Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.展开更多
Marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)significantly impact marine ecosystems and socioeconomic development,yet accurately forecasting MHWs remains a challenge.This study developed an upper-ocean temperature...Marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)significantly impact marine ecosystems and socioeconomic development,yet accurately forecasting MHWs remains a challenge.This study developed an upper-ocean temperature forecasting model based on ConvLSTM for the northern SCS and,in conjunction with the ocean forecasting system LICOM Forecast System(LFS),constructed a hybrid Fusion model using Wasserstein-Distance optimization.The ability of these three models to forecast key MHW metrics with a 10-day lead was assessed during the summer of 2022 in the SCS.Overall,the Fusion model takes advantage of LFS and ConvLSTM,providing superior forecasts for both the duration and intensity of MHWs in the southern SCS.LFS(ConvLSTM)overestimates(underestimates)the duration of MHWs and all models exhibit limitations in forecasting the intensity of MHWs in part of the SCS.The Fusion model's superior forecast skill for MHWs may be attributable to its more realistic representation of the upper-ocean thermal structure with shallower mixed-layer depths during MHWs.This study highlights that combining the deep learning technique with a dynamical model can improve MHW forecasting and has certain physical interpretability.展开更多
Clouds are one of the leading causes of sun shading,which reduces the direct horizontal irradiance and curtails the photovoltaic(PV)power.It is critical to estimate cloud cover to accurately predict PV generation with...Clouds are one of the leading causes of sun shading,which reduces the direct horizontal irradiance and curtails the photovoltaic(PV)power.It is critical to estimate cloud cover to accurately predict PV generation within a very short horizon(second/minute).To achieve the precise forecasting of cloud cover,an image preprocessing method based on total-sky images is proposed to remove the interference and address the image edge distortion issue.An optimal threshold estimation method is further designed to achieve higher cloud identification precision.Considering the cloud's meteorological properties,a random hypersurface model(RHM)based on the Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density(GM-PHD)filter is applied to track the cloud.The GM-PHD can track the rotation and diffusion of clouds,which helps to estimate sun-cloud collision.Furthermore,a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)and backpropagation(BP)neural network-based model is applied for intra-hour PV power forecasting.The experiment results demonstrate that the proposed cloud-tracking-based PV power forecasting model can capture the ramp behavior of PV power,improving forecasting precision.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of crude oil futures prices is crucial for understanding global energy market dynamics and formulating effective macroeconomic and energy strategies.However,the strong nonlinearity and multi-scale...Accurate forecasting of crude oil futures prices is crucial for understanding global energy market dynamics and formulating effective macroeconomic and energy strategies.However,the strong nonlinearity and multi-scale temporal characteristics of crude oil prices pose significant challenges to traditional forecasting methods.To address these issues,this study proposes a hybrid CEEMDAN–HOA–Transformer–GRU model that integrates decomposition,complexity analysis,adaptive modeling,and intelligent optimization.Specifically,Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise(CEEMDAN)is employed to decompose the original series into multi-scale components,after which entropy-based complexity analysis quantitatively evaluates each component.A differentiated modeling strategy is then applied:Transformer networks capture long-term dependencies in high-complexity components,while Gated Recurrent Units(GRU)model short-term dynamics in relatively simple components.To further enhance robustness,the Hiking Optimization Algorithm(HOA)is used for joint hyperparameter optimization across both base learners.Empirical analysis of WTI and Brent crude oil futures demonstrates the technical effectiveness of the framework.Compared with benchmark models,the proposed method reduces RMSE by 79.16% for WTI and 77.47% for Brent.Incorporating complexity analysis further decreases RMSE by 36.51%for WTI and 34.93%for Brent,confirming the superior nonlinear modeling capacity and generalization performance of the integrated framework.Overall,this study provides not only a technically reliable tool for modeling complex financial time series but also practical guidance for improving the accuracy and stability of crude oil price forecasting,thereby supporting market monitoring,risk management,and policy formulation.展开更多
The Vertical Total Electron Content(VTEC)of the ionosphere is a crucial parameter for describing the distribution and dynamic changes within the ionosphere.The study utilizes Dual Hybrid Attentional UNet(DHA-UNet)mode...The Vertical Total Electron Content(VTEC)of the ionosphere is a crucial parameter for describing the distribution and dynamic changes within the ionosphere.The study utilizes Dual Hybrid Attentional UNet(DHA-UNet)model to achieve higher forecasting performance for global VTEC predictions under the condition of data acquisition delays.Initially,this study uses the first Hybrid Attentional UNet(HA-UNet)model to predict the intermediate missing data.The missing data are caused by delays in data processing,making the Global Ionosphere Map(GIM)for the current day unavailable.Subsequently,the predicted results from the first HA-UNet model are concatenated with the input data to serve as the input data for the second HA-UNet model,yielding the final prediction results.The performance of DHA-UNet model is then evaluated under varying solar and geomagnetic activity conditions.Evaluation results demonstrate that the DHA-UNet model exhibits higher forecasting accuracy and stability compared to commonly used temporal and spatiotemporal forecasting models.Compared to CODG VTEC,the DHA-UNet model achieves Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values of 2.60 TECU,3.07 TECU,3.78 TECU,and 6.45TECU during quiet,weak,moderate,and strong geomagnetic storm periods,respectively,in years of high solar activity.In years of low solar activity,the model achieves MAE values of 1.00 TECU,1.15 TECU,and 1.54 TECU during quiet,weak,and moderate geomagnetic storm periods,respectively.Even during strong geomagnetic storms,55%of the residuals from the DHA-UNet model fall within the-5.0 TECU to 5.0 TECU range,surpassing other commonly used models.Compared to the C1PG forecasting product,the DHA-UNet model shows particularly notable improvements in accuracy during the spring and winter seasons,as well as in mid-to high-latitude regions.展开更多
The basic condition of earthquake disasters in China is featured by high frequency,strong intensity,wide distribution,and heavy losses.Earthquake forecasting plays a critical role in reducing seismic risks.To better a...The basic condition of earthquake disasters in China is featured by high frequency,strong intensity,wide distribution,and heavy losses.Earthquake forecasting plays a critical role in reducing seismic risks.To better advance earthquake predicting efforts,the China Earthquake Administration released the Strategic Plan for Earthquake Forecasting in China(2025−2035)on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Haicheng earthquake.Here we briefly introduce the main contents of the Strategic Plan,including the main progress,strategic objectives,and development directions of earthquake forecasting in China.展开更多
Greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from China’s food system are a major environmental concern;however,studies quantifying their drivers and future projections remain limited.This study uses structural decomposition analysi...Greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from China’s food system are a major environmental concern;however,studies quantifying their drivers and future projections remain limited.This study uses structural decomposition analysis and growth curve models to assess food-related GHG trends from 1961 to 2020,identify key drivers and their contributions,and project emissions for 2050 under six economic and population scenarios.It also proposes reduction pathways to help China achieve its 2060 carbon neutrality goal.Animal and plant foods are categorized into 14 groups based on the similarity of their emission coefficients.China’s total food related GHG emissions rose tenfold,from 351.7 to 3719.8 million tons CO_(2)-equivalent(CO_(2)e)/year,between 1961 and 2020.Per-capita emissions increased from 532.1 to 2584.4 kg CO_(2)e/year.Emissions from plant based foods grew from 435.0 to 824.6 kg CO_(2)e/year,while animal-based emissions surged from 97.1 to 1759.8 kg CO_(2)e/year,with animal products contributing more owing to their higher emission coefficients.Key drivers include rising food intake,increasing demand for animal-based foods(especially red meat),and population growth.Scenario analyses predict that emissions will peak at 3826.2 million tons CO_(2)e/year in 2031(low economy-low population)and 3971.0 million tons CO_(2)e/year in 2039(high economy-medium population).Compared with Australian,Indian,and Japanese diets,Chinese diets exhibit lower per-capita emissions than Australia and India but have higher emissions than in Japan.Adhering to China’s national dietary guidelines could reduce Chinese per-capita food-related GHGs by 31.5%,and optimized diets could lower them by 45.3%.This study provides valuable insights for Chinese policymakers to reduce food-related GHG emissions,refine national dietary guidelines,and raise public awareness regarding the food system’s environmental impact,thus encouraging people to follow sustainable diets.展开更多
Air conditioning is a major energy-consuming component in buildings,and accurate air conditioning load forecasting is of great significance for maximizing energy utilization efficiency.However,the deep learning models...Air conditioning is a major energy-consuming component in buildings,and accurate air conditioning load forecasting is of great significance for maximizing energy utilization efficiency.However,the deep learning models currently used in the field of air conditioning load forecasting often suffer from issues such as distribution bias in load data and insufficient expression ability of nonlinear features in the model,which affect the accuracy of load forecasting.To address this,this paper proposes a novel load forecasting model.Firstly,the model employs the Dish-TS(DS)module to standardize the input window data through self-learning standardized parameters,thereby addressing the spatial intra-bias problem existing between data.Secondly,DS-Kansformer introduces Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks(KANs)to enhance the expression ability of nonlinear features.Finally,the output window is denormalized through the self-learning parameter of the DS module to restore the original distribution of the predicted data.In this paper,experiments were carried out based on the air-conditioning load dataset collected from a multi-functional comprehensive building,and the experimental results show that after adding the DS module,the Mean Absolute Error(MAE),Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),and R-squared(R^(2))of the model are 20.46%,34.44%,and 92.61%,respectively;after introducing KAN,the MAE,RMSE,and R^(2) are 22.81%,35.72%,and 92.05%,respectively;the model also exhibits high prediction accuracy after integrating the two modules(with RMSE,MAE,and R^(2) being 19.75%,34.05%,and 92.78%,respectively),outperforming common time series prediction models,confirming the reliability and efficiency of the model,which can provide reliable support for intelligent energy management in buildings.展开更多
Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep...Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.展开更多
This research evaluates the performance of an eddy-resolving forecast system(LFS)in simulating mesoscale eddies over the South China Sea(SCs)through a comparative analysis with satellite observations and the reanalysi...This research evaluates the performance of an eddy-resolving forecast system(LFS)in simulating mesoscale eddies over the South China Sea(SCs)through a comparative analysis with satellite observations and the reanalysis dataset from the Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis product(CMEMS).The findings indicate that the spatial characteristics of eddy kinetic energy,number,and amplitude of coherent mesoscale eddies simulated by LFS exhibit a reasonable agreement with satellite observations.The reproduced seasonal variations are also comparable to outputs from the CMEMS reanalysis dataset.Nevertheless,certain systematic biases have also been identified.In the SCS,LFS generates approximately 17%fewer eddies than observed.Such biases are also evident in the CMEMS reanalysis dataset.Similar to the statistics shown in the CMEMS reanalysis dataset,both cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies are significantly weaker in LFS compared to the observations.Additionally,the composite three-dimensional structures of mesoscale eddies simulated by LFS exhibit a remarkable similarity to those identified in the CMEMS reanalysis datasets.This work lays the foundation for further studies using LFS to investigate the predictability of mesoscale eddies and enhance the accuracy of simulations.展开更多
Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial fe...Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial features.To address the limitations,the paper proposes a TimeXer-based numerical forecast correction model optimized by an exogenous-variable attention mechanism.The model treats target forecast values as internal variables,and incorporates historical temporal-spatial data and seven-day numerical forecast results from traditional models as external variables based on the embedding strategy of TimeXer.Using a self-attention structure,the model captures correlations between exogenous variables and target sequences,explores intrinsic multi-dimensional relationships,and subsequently corrects endogenous variables with the mined exogenous features.The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics including MSE(Mean Squared Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error),MSPE(Mean Square Percentage Error),and computational time,with TimeXer and PatchTST models serving as benchmarks.Experiment results show that the proposed model achieves lower errors and higher correction accuracy for both one-day and seven-day forecasts.展开更多
Sand and dust storms(SDSs)are natural disasters that frequently occur during spring in arid and semi-arid areas,causing serious impacts on human health,air quality,transportation,and agricultural production.Accurately...Sand and dust storms(SDSs)are natural disasters that frequently occur during spring in arid and semi-arid areas,causing serious impacts on human health,air quality,transportation,and agricultural production.Accurately simulating the occurrence and evolution of SDSs is of great significance for identifying dust sources and formulating effective disaster prevention measures.In this study,numerical simulations were conducted to reveal the dynamic spatiotemporal evolution and transport of dust load across East Asia.Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry(WRF-Chem)and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5(ERA5)data,the most severe SDS events in the spring of 2023 in East Asia were numerically simulated.The simulated results were compared and validated using meteorological observations and multisource remote sensing data.The results showed that the simulated dust load in the peak regions showed close agreement with ground-based observations during the events.The primary dust sources in spring 2023 were identified as the western desert of Mongolia,the Gobi Desert,and the Taklimakan Desert in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China.Peak dust load and maximum wind speed occurred almost simultaneously,indicating that high wind speed was the primary driver of sand and dust mobilization during individual SDS events.Increased surface vegetation covers partially mitigated wind-driven dust emissions.In April,strong winds over the Gobi Desert on the Mongolian Plateau predominantly drove cross-border SDSs along northwestern and northward transport pathways.Dust originating from Mongolia exerts a substantial influence on particulate dust load in the central and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China.In contrast,their impact on the northwestern regions of China remains relatively limited.These findings contribute to understanding the source areas of SDS events in East Asia by simulating the dynamic evolution of SDSs and elucidating the relationships between SDS events and local geographical and environmental factors.展开更多
Existing load forecasting methods typically assume that recent load data are available for prediction.This is not in conformity with reality since there is a time gap between the flow date(when power is consumed)and w...Existing load forecasting methods typically assume that recent load data are available for prediction.This is not in conformity with reality since there is a time gap between the flow date(when power is consumed)and when measurement values are obtained.To this end,this letter proposes an online learning-based probabilistic load forecasting method considering the impact of the data gap.Specifically,an adaptive ensemble backpropagation-enabled online quantile regression algorithm is developed to optimize the parameters of the attention network recursively using the newly obtained load observations.To further improve the reliability and sharpness of prediction intervals under significant data gaps,we introduce an online interval calibration technique.The proposed online learning method allows us to adaptively capture the dynamic changes in load patterns and alleviate the information lags caused by data gaps.Comparative tests utilizing real-world datasets reveal the superiority of the proposed method.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.U2039207)
文摘Symposium overview The International Symposium on Earthquake Forecasting to Commemorate the 50th Anniversary of the 1975 Haicheng M7.3 Earthquake,Liaoning,China,was held in Shenyang,China,from 8 to 11 July 2025.The symposium was organized by the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration(CEA),the State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics and Forecasting,and the China Seismic Experimental Site(CSES),in collaboration with the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior(IASPEI),the APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Science(ACES).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284)。
文摘Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware loss function is proposed for accurate multistep wind speed forecasting.In this model,the wind speed data is first denoised using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform.Next,an encoder-decoder network based on a temporal convolutional network,bidirectional gated recurrent unit,and multihead self-attention is employed for forecasting.Additionally,to enhance the ability of the model to identify temporal dynamics,a shape-aware loss function,ITILDE-Q,is employed in the model.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,a comparative experiment and an ablation experiment were conducted using three datasets of measured wind speeds.Three error metrics and a similarity metric were adopted for comprehensive evaluation.The experimental results showed that the proposed model consistently outperforms benchmark models in all tested forecasting scenarios,with particularly pronounced differences in performance over longer forecast horizons.Furthermore,the synergistic interaction of the three key components contributes to the extraordinary performance of the proposed model.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB2401200)National Natural Science Foundation of China(72242105)Organized Research Support Program,Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University.
文摘With the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy,flexible resources are highly needed to hedge the growing uncertainty,and variability in the power system.Demand response has served as a cost-effective type of flexible resource in recent years.In order to balance the uncertainty of the system,it is crucial to assess how much flexibility demand response programs can provide.Thus,forecasting demand response potential is important for the operation of the bulk system.This paper proposes a modeling approach that can characterize the multi-timescale flexibility of demand response so that not only the power potential but also temporal-coupling characteristics can be considered.Furthermore,a day-ahead demand response potential forecasting method is proposed using deep convolutional generative adversarial networks.The proposed forecasting method is tested using data from 170 users in Pecan Street Dataport.The results show that the proposed method can forecast the multi-timescale flexibility of demand response with high accuracy.
基金Science and Technology Development Program of the“Taihu Light”(K20231023)CMA Numerical Weather Prediction R&D Project(TCYF2024QH007)+1 种基金“Qing Lan”Project of Jiangsu Province for C.H.LUWuxi University Research Start-up Fund for Introduced Talents(2023r037)。
文摘Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed among forecast results produced by different ensemble members when applied to South China.To enhance the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region,it is essential to develop new methods that can effectively leverage multiple predictive models.This study introduces a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning to improve forecast accuracy.We utilized ensemble forecasts from three models:the Integrated Forecasting System model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,and the Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3 model from the China Meteorological Administration.The ensemble weights are trained using an online learning approach.The results indicate that the forecasts obtained through online learning outperform those of the original dynamical models.Compared to the simple ensemble results of the three models,the weighted ensemble model showed a stronger capability to capture temperature and precipitation patterns in South China.Therefore,this method has the potential to improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFC3008004]。
文摘This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.
基金supported by the Academic Research Projects of Beijing Union University(ZK20202204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12250005,12073040,12273059,11973056,12003051,11573037,12073041,11427901,11572005,11611530679 and 12473052)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the China Academy of Sciences(XDB0560000,XDA15052200,XDB09040200,XDA15010700,XDB0560301,and XDA15320102)the Chinese Meridian Project(CMP).
文摘The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.
基金support from the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan(Contract Nos.113-2221-E-011-130-MY2 and 113-2218-E-011-002)the support from Intelligent Manufactur-ing Innovation Center(IMIC),National Taiwan University of Science and Technology(NTUST),Taipei,Taiwan.
文摘Accurate photovoltaic(PV)power generation forecasting is essential for the efficient integration of renewable energy into power grids.However,the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of PV power signals,driven by fluctuating weather conditions,pose significant challenges for reliable prediction.This study proposes a DOEP(Decomposition–Optimization–Error Correction–Prediction)framework,a hybrid forecasting approach that integrates adaptive signal decomposition,machine learning,metaheuristic optimization,and error correction.The PV power signal is first decomposed using CEEMDAN to extract multi-scale temporal features.Subsequently,the hyperparameters and window sizes of the LSSVM are optimized using a Segment-based EBQPSO strategy.The main novelty of the proposed DOEP framework lies in the incorporation of Segment-based EBQPSO as a structured optimization mechanism that balances elite exploitation and population diversity during LSSVM tuning within the CEEMDAN-based forecasting pipeline.This strategy effectively mitigates convergence instability and sensitivity to initialization,which are common limitations in existing hybrid PV forecasting models.Each IMF is then predicted individually and aggregated to generate an initial forecast.In the error-correction stage,the residual error series is modeled using LSTM,and the final prediction is obtained by combining the initial forecast with the predicted error component.The proposed framework is evaluated using two PV power plant datasets with different levels of complexity.The results demonstrate that DOEP consistently outperforms benchmark models across multiple error-based and goodness-of-fit metrics,achieving MSE reductions of approximately 15%–60%on the ResPV-BDG dataset and 37%–92%on the NREL dataset.Analyses of predicted vs.observed values and residual distributions further confirm the superior calibration and robustness of the proposed approach.Although the DOEP framework entails higher computational costs than single model methods,it delivers significantly improved accuracy and stability for PV power forecasting under complex operating conditions.
文摘Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 42375168 and 42205035]a Shanghai Science and Technology Commission Project [grant number 23DZ1204704]。
文摘Marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)significantly impact marine ecosystems and socioeconomic development,yet accurately forecasting MHWs remains a challenge.This study developed an upper-ocean temperature forecasting model based on ConvLSTM for the northern SCS and,in conjunction with the ocean forecasting system LICOM Forecast System(LFS),constructed a hybrid Fusion model using Wasserstein-Distance optimization.The ability of these three models to forecast key MHW metrics with a 10-day lead was assessed during the summer of 2022 in the SCS.Overall,the Fusion model takes advantage of LFS and ConvLSTM,providing superior forecasts for both the duration and intensity of MHWs in the southern SCS.LFS(ConvLSTM)overestimates(underestimates)the duration of MHWs and all models exhibit limitations in forecasting the intensity of MHWs in part of the SCS.The Fusion model's superior forecast skill for MHWs may be attributable to its more realistic representation of the upper-ocean thermal structure with shallower mixed-layer depths during MHWs.This study highlights that combining the deep learning technique with a dynamical model can improve MHW forecasting and has certain physical interpretability.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1909201,62206062).
文摘Clouds are one of the leading causes of sun shading,which reduces the direct horizontal irradiance and curtails the photovoltaic(PV)power.It is critical to estimate cloud cover to accurately predict PV generation within a very short horizon(second/minute).To achieve the precise forecasting of cloud cover,an image preprocessing method based on total-sky images is proposed to remove the interference and address the image edge distortion issue.An optimal threshold estimation method is further designed to achieve higher cloud identification precision.Considering the cloud's meteorological properties,a random hypersurface model(RHM)based on the Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density(GM-PHD)filter is applied to track the cloud.The GM-PHD can track the rotation and diffusion of clouds,which helps to estimate sun-cloud collision.Furthermore,a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)and backpropagation(BP)neural network-based model is applied for intra-hour PV power forecasting.The experiment results demonstrate that the proposed cloud-tracking-based PV power forecasting model can capture the ramp behavior of PV power,improving forecasting precision.
基金funded by the Henan Provincial Natural Science Foundation(grant no.242300421257).
文摘Accurate forecasting of crude oil futures prices is crucial for understanding global energy market dynamics and formulating effective macroeconomic and energy strategies.However,the strong nonlinearity and multi-scale temporal characteristics of crude oil prices pose significant challenges to traditional forecasting methods.To address these issues,this study proposes a hybrid CEEMDAN–HOA–Transformer–GRU model that integrates decomposition,complexity analysis,adaptive modeling,and intelligent optimization.Specifically,Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise(CEEMDAN)is employed to decompose the original series into multi-scale components,after which entropy-based complexity analysis quantitatively evaluates each component.A differentiated modeling strategy is then applied:Transformer networks capture long-term dependencies in high-complexity components,while Gated Recurrent Units(GRU)model short-term dynamics in relatively simple components.To further enhance robustness,the Hiking Optimization Algorithm(HOA)is used for joint hyperparameter optimization across both base learners.Empirical analysis of WTI and Brent crude oil futures demonstrates the technical effectiveness of the framework.Compared with benchmark models,the proposed method reduces RMSE by 79.16% for WTI and 77.47% for Brent.Incorporating complexity analysis further decreases RMSE by 36.51%for WTI and 34.93%for Brent,confirming the superior nonlinear modeling capacity and generalization performance of the integrated framework.Overall,this study provides not only a technically reliable tool for modeling complex financial time series but also practical guidance for improving the accuracy and stability of crude oil price forecasting,thereby supporting market monitoring,risk management,and policy formulation.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2022YFB3904402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42474037 and U2233217)。
文摘The Vertical Total Electron Content(VTEC)of the ionosphere is a crucial parameter for describing the distribution and dynamic changes within the ionosphere.The study utilizes Dual Hybrid Attentional UNet(DHA-UNet)model to achieve higher forecasting performance for global VTEC predictions under the condition of data acquisition delays.Initially,this study uses the first Hybrid Attentional UNet(HA-UNet)model to predict the intermediate missing data.The missing data are caused by delays in data processing,making the Global Ionosphere Map(GIM)for the current day unavailable.Subsequently,the predicted results from the first HA-UNet model are concatenated with the input data to serve as the input data for the second HA-UNet model,yielding the final prediction results.The performance of DHA-UNet model is then evaluated under varying solar and geomagnetic activity conditions.Evaluation results demonstrate that the DHA-UNet model exhibits higher forecasting accuracy and stability compared to commonly used temporal and spatiotemporal forecasting models.Compared to CODG VTEC,the DHA-UNet model achieves Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values of 2.60 TECU,3.07 TECU,3.78 TECU,and 6.45TECU during quiet,weak,moderate,and strong geomagnetic storm periods,respectively,in years of high solar activity.In years of low solar activity,the model achieves MAE values of 1.00 TECU,1.15 TECU,and 1.54 TECU during quiet,weak,and moderate geomagnetic storm periods,respectively.Even during strong geomagnetic storms,55%of the residuals from the DHA-UNet model fall within the-5.0 TECU to 5.0 TECU range,surpassing other commonly used models.Compared to the C1PG forecasting product,the DHA-UNet model shows particularly notable improvements in accuracy during the spring and winter seasons,as well as in mid-to high-latitude regions.
文摘The basic condition of earthquake disasters in China is featured by high frequency,strong intensity,wide distribution,and heavy losses.Earthquake forecasting plays a critical role in reducing seismic risks.To better advance earthquake predicting efforts,the China Earthquake Administration released the Strategic Plan for Earthquake Forecasting in China(2025−2035)on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Haicheng earthquake.Here we briefly introduce the main contents of the Strategic Plan,including the main progress,strategic objectives,and development directions of earthquake forecasting in China.
基金funded by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant No.42171300]the Strategic Research Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant No.42542001]+1 种基金Post-funded Project of National Social Science Fund of China[Grant No.25FJYB015]Special Project of Strategic Research and Decision Support System of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[Grant No.GHJ-ZLZX-2025-48].
文摘Greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from China’s food system are a major environmental concern;however,studies quantifying their drivers and future projections remain limited.This study uses structural decomposition analysis and growth curve models to assess food-related GHG trends from 1961 to 2020,identify key drivers and their contributions,and project emissions for 2050 under six economic and population scenarios.It also proposes reduction pathways to help China achieve its 2060 carbon neutrality goal.Animal and plant foods are categorized into 14 groups based on the similarity of their emission coefficients.China’s total food related GHG emissions rose tenfold,from 351.7 to 3719.8 million tons CO_(2)-equivalent(CO_(2)e)/year,between 1961 and 2020.Per-capita emissions increased from 532.1 to 2584.4 kg CO_(2)e/year.Emissions from plant based foods grew from 435.0 to 824.6 kg CO_(2)e/year,while animal-based emissions surged from 97.1 to 1759.8 kg CO_(2)e/year,with animal products contributing more owing to their higher emission coefficients.Key drivers include rising food intake,increasing demand for animal-based foods(especially red meat),and population growth.Scenario analyses predict that emissions will peak at 3826.2 million tons CO_(2)e/year in 2031(low economy-low population)and 3971.0 million tons CO_(2)e/year in 2039(high economy-medium population).Compared with Australian,Indian,and Japanese diets,Chinese diets exhibit lower per-capita emissions than Australia and India but have higher emissions than in Japan.Adhering to China’s national dietary guidelines could reduce Chinese per-capita food-related GHGs by 31.5%,and optimized diets could lower them by 45.3%.This study provides valuable insights for Chinese policymakers to reduce food-related GHG emissions,refine national dietary guidelines,and raise public awareness regarding the food system’s environmental impact,thus encouraging people to follow sustainable diets.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation with grant No.12374408。
文摘Air conditioning is a major energy-consuming component in buildings,and accurate air conditioning load forecasting is of great significance for maximizing energy utilization efficiency.However,the deep learning models currently used in the field of air conditioning load forecasting often suffer from issues such as distribution bias in load data and insufficient expression ability of nonlinear features in the model,which affect the accuracy of load forecasting.To address this,this paper proposes a novel load forecasting model.Firstly,the model employs the Dish-TS(DS)module to standardize the input window data through self-learning standardized parameters,thereby addressing the spatial intra-bias problem existing between data.Secondly,DS-Kansformer introduces Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks(KANs)to enhance the expression ability of nonlinear features.Finally,the output window is denormalized through the self-learning parameter of the DS module to restore the original distribution of the predicted data.In this paper,experiments were carried out based on the air-conditioning load dataset collected from a multi-functional comprehensive building,and the experimental results show that after adding the DS module,the Mean Absolute Error(MAE),Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),and R-squared(R^(2))of the model are 20.46%,34.44%,and 92.61%,respectively;after introducing KAN,the MAE,RMSE,and R^(2) are 22.81%,35.72%,and 92.05%,respectively;the model also exhibits high prediction accuracy after integrating the two modules(with RMSE,MAE,and R^(2) being 19.75%,34.05%,and 92.78%,respectively),outperforming common time series prediction models,confirming the reliability and efficiency of the model,which can provide reliable support for intelligent energy management in buildings.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 62376217]the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST[grant number 2023QNRC001]the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement[grant number 24NLTSZ003]。
文摘Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program for Developing Basic Sciences [grant number 2022YFC3104805]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 92358302 and 42306219]+1 种基金supported by the Tai Shan Scholar Program [grant number tstp20231237]Laoshan Laboratory project [grant number LSKJ202300301]。
文摘This research evaluates the performance of an eddy-resolving forecast system(LFS)in simulating mesoscale eddies over the South China Sea(SCs)through a comparative analysis with satellite observations and the reanalysis dataset from the Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis product(CMEMS).The findings indicate that the spatial characteristics of eddy kinetic energy,number,and amplitude of coherent mesoscale eddies simulated by LFS exhibit a reasonable agreement with satellite observations.The reproduced seasonal variations are also comparable to outputs from the CMEMS reanalysis dataset.Nevertheless,certain systematic biases have also been identified.In the SCS,LFS generates approximately 17%fewer eddies than observed.Such biases are also evident in the CMEMS reanalysis dataset.Similar to the statistics shown in the CMEMS reanalysis dataset,both cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies are significantly weaker in LFS compared to the observations.Additionally,the composite three-dimensional structures of mesoscale eddies simulated by LFS exhibit a remarkable similarity to those identified in the CMEMS reanalysis datasets.This work lays the foundation for further studies using LFS to investigate the predictability of mesoscale eddies and enhance the accuracy of simulations.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program Project(2023YFC3107804)Planning Fund Project of Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education(24YJA880097)the Graduate Education Reform Project in North China University of Technology(217051360025XN095-17)。
文摘Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial features.To address the limitations,the paper proposes a TimeXer-based numerical forecast correction model optimized by an exogenous-variable attention mechanism.The model treats target forecast values as internal variables,and incorporates historical temporal-spatial data and seven-day numerical forecast results from traditional models as external variables based on the embedding strategy of TimeXer.Using a self-attention structure,the model captures correlations between exogenous variables and target sequences,explores intrinsic multi-dimensional relationships,and subsequently corrects endogenous variables with the mined exogenous features.The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics including MSE(Mean Squared Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error),MSPE(Mean Square Percentage Error),and computational time,with TimeXer and PatchTST models serving as benchmarks.Experiment results show that the proposed model achieves lower errors and higher correction accuracy for both one-day and seven-day forecasts.
基金supported by the Science&Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program(2023FY100700)the Key Project of Innovation LREIS(KPI006)+1 种基金the Key R&D and Achievement Transformation Program of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(2023KJHZ0027)the Construction Project of China Knowledge Centre for Engineering Sciences and Technology(CKCEST-2023-1-5).
文摘Sand and dust storms(SDSs)are natural disasters that frequently occur during spring in arid and semi-arid areas,causing serious impacts on human health,air quality,transportation,and agricultural production.Accurately simulating the occurrence and evolution of SDSs is of great significance for identifying dust sources and formulating effective disaster prevention measures.In this study,numerical simulations were conducted to reveal the dynamic spatiotemporal evolution and transport of dust load across East Asia.Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry(WRF-Chem)and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5(ERA5)data,the most severe SDS events in the spring of 2023 in East Asia were numerically simulated.The simulated results were compared and validated using meteorological observations and multisource remote sensing data.The results showed that the simulated dust load in the peak regions showed close agreement with ground-based observations during the events.The primary dust sources in spring 2023 were identified as the western desert of Mongolia,the Gobi Desert,and the Taklimakan Desert in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China.Peak dust load and maximum wind speed occurred almost simultaneously,indicating that high wind speed was the primary driver of sand and dust mobilization during individual SDS events.Increased surface vegetation covers partially mitigated wind-driven dust emissions.In April,strong winds over the Gobi Desert on the Mongolian Plateau predominantly drove cross-border SDSs along northwestern and northward transport pathways.Dust originating from Mongolia exerts a substantial influence on particulate dust load in the central and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China.In contrast,their impact on the northwestern regions of China remains relatively limited.These findings contribute to understanding the source areas of SDS events in East Asia by simulating the dynamic evolution of SDSs and elucidating the relationships between SDS events and local geographical and environmental factors.
基金supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 72401055in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 52277083in part by the joint founding of Guangdong,and Dongguan under Grant 2023A1515110939.
文摘Existing load forecasting methods typically assume that recent load data are available for prediction.This is not in conformity with reality since there is a time gap between the flow date(when power is consumed)and when measurement values are obtained.To this end,this letter proposes an online learning-based probabilistic load forecasting method considering the impact of the data gap.Specifically,an adaptive ensemble backpropagation-enabled online quantile regression algorithm is developed to optimize the parameters of the attention network recursively using the newly obtained load observations.To further improve the reliability and sharpness of prediction intervals under significant data gaps,we introduce an online interval calibration technique.The proposed online learning method allows us to adaptively capture the dynamic changes in load patterns and alleviate the information lags caused by data gaps.Comparative tests utilizing real-world datasets reveal the superiority of the proposed method.
