Abstract By testing and analyzing BJ-RUC forecast of one precipitation process, MODE was introduced. MODE could give objective comparison from position of precipitation falling zone, shape and direction, and reflect i...Abstract By testing and analyzing BJ-RUC forecast of one precipitation process, MODE was introduced. MODE could give objective comparison from position of precipitation falling zone, shape and direction, and reflect intensity difference between forecast and actual situation, which comprehensively reflected precipitation forecast performance of the model, and was close to subjective judgment thinking of forecaster.展开更多
Heavy rain is a kind of severe weather, often causing floods and serious soil erosion, leading to engineering losses, embankment rupture and crop flooding and other significant economic losses. Especially for some low...Heavy rain is a kind of severe weather, often causing floods and serious soil erosion, leading to engineering losses, embankment rupture and crop flooding and other significant economic losses. Especially for some low-lying terrain areas, rainwater cannot quickly vent caused by farm water and soil moisture being too saturated, so it will cause more geological disasters. This article combines live and forecast data, aiming at the results of the mid-rainstorm forecast in North China during the period of 7.19-2016, and compares with the actual situation of rainstorm. We carry out the mid-term forecast of the rainstorm. The atmosphere is a kind of medium with various fluctuation phenomena, and its physical properties and changes are studied by the analysis of volatility which is an important research method. It is important to improve the accuracy of such severe weather forecasting rainstorms and to take precautionary measures in a timely manner to minimize the losses caused by rainstorms.展开更多
To generate a test set for a given circuit (including both combinational and sequential circuits), choice of an algorithm within a number of existing test generation algorithms to apply is bound to vary from circuit t...To generate a test set for a given circuit (including both combinational and sequential circuits), choice of an algorithm within a number of existing test generation algorithms to apply is bound to vary from circuit to circuit. In this paper, the genetic algorithms are used to construct the models of existing test generation algorithms in making such choice more easily. Therefore, we may forecast the testability parameters of a circuit before using the real test generation algorithm. The results also can be used to evaluate the efficiency of the existing test generation algorithms. Experimental results are given to convince the readers of the truth and the usefulness of this approach.展开更多
This research uses Japan facsimile data in May-September of 2011-2015 in Fumeng and Zhangwu County of Fuxin, Liaoning, China as the site selection for high altitude NECV circulation background, using statistical and s...This research uses Japan facsimile data in May-September of 2011-2015 in Fumeng and Zhangwu County of Fuxin, Liaoning, China as the site selection for high altitude NECV circulation background, using statistical and synoptic methods testing the combination of test and Analysis on Japanese numerical precipitation prediction and error. The prediction equation of cold vortex precipitation in the region is established by SPSS software. It is predicted whether the product predicts precipitation, water vapor condition and vertical velocity according to the Japanese numerical forecast. The results show that the fitting rate is 88% in the past 5 years, and the rate of cold vortex precipitation in the summer of 2016 is 89%.展开更多
The model for forecasting the test data on mechanical products is established in the application of the grey system theories. A new formula of the background value is introduced into the model. The result of an exampl...The model for forecasting the test data on mechanical products is established in the application of the grey system theories. A new formula of the background value is introduced into the model. The result of an example shows the method can reduce test expense and enhance the precision of forecasting.展开更多
In this paper,the monitoring data of road surface temperature,air temperature,wind speed,wind direction,relative humidity and precipitation from the automatic weather stations of Hurongxi,Hanyi,Wuhuang and Huanghuang ...In this paper,the monitoring data of road surface temperature,air temperature,wind speed,wind direction,relative humidity and precipitation from the automatic weather stations of Hurongxi,Hanyi,Wuhuang and Huanghuang on Huyu expressway from June 2013 to August 2014 were used to investigate the change characteristics of different sections' road surface temperatures in different seasons and sky conditions. The forecast models of the maximum and minimum road surface temperatures were established on different sections by statistical analysis methods,and the forecast results were verified. The results showed that the road surface temperature and air temperature of Hurongxi,Hanyi,Wuhuang and Huanghuang displayed obvious diurnal variation,but the difference between the road surface temperature and air temperature was larger. Compared with the other three sections,the maximum difference between the road surface temperature and air temperature on Hurongxi increased in winter and decreased in summer overall. The road surface temperature was close to air temperature on Hurongxi after sunset on sunny to cloudy and overcast in winter,while less than air temperature on Hanyi,Wuhuang and Huanghuang. The air temperature was less than road surface temperature on the four sections on rainy day and significant on Hurongxi. In summer,the air temperature was less than road surface temperature on the four sections under three sky conditions and the difference between them in afternoon was the biggest on sunny to cloudy and overcast. The road surface temperature was very close to each other among the four sections in January,while which was rising with the decrease of altitude in April,July and October. The forecast result of the road surface temperature was close to actual result on Hurongxi and Huanghuang,so which can be for reference. But there were some big errors between the forecast result and actual result in several timings on Hanyi and Wuhuang,so the forecast result should be corrected for actual business work.展开更多
The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing m...The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to study the obtaining method of meticulous climate forecast product and test its forecast effect. [Method] Based on the national standard surface observation data and secondary data bank obtai...[Objective] The aim was to study the obtaining method of meticulous climate forecast product and test its forecast effect. [Method] Based on the national standard surface observation data and secondary data bank obtained by means of distance weight interpolation method, the model of climate forecast was established, and the timing, fixed-point and quantitative meticulous climate forecast of meteorological elements was obtained by using many forecast methods and artificial revision, finally the forecast effect was tested. [Result] At present, meticulous climate forecast system was used to predict the daily, five-day, ten-day, monthly, seasonal and annual variation of six meteorological elements (including average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, average pressure and sunshine) in 10 meteorological stations in Guangzhou City. The forecast effect of meteorological elements in 10 stations in Guangzhou City from 2006 to 2010 was tested, and the average scores of monthly precipitation, average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were 75.0, 94.5, 98.6 and 88.9, respectively, while the scores of five-day meteorological elements were 77.1, 90.6, 90.1 and 82.8, which met the requirement of objective management of Guangdong Meteorological Observatory. [Conclusion] Meticulous climate forecast system could be widely used in the forecast of agricultural meteorological disasters and fixed-point forecast in large reservoir, new airport and nuclear power station.展开更多
The mesoscale forecasting model WRF is used to simulate two strong convective weather processes accompanied by lightning in Qinghai Province,and the simulated lightning potential index (LPI) and the observed lightning...The mesoscale forecasting model WRF is used to simulate two strong convective weather processes accompanied by lightning in Qinghai Province,and the simulated lightning potential index (LPI) and the observed lightning are compared.Finally,the application of LPI in another lightening case is examined.The results show that the simulated LPI corresponds well to the observed lightning in time.In terms of spatial distribution,the simulated LPI tends to be consistent with the observed lightning density,but there are some minor differences in the locations.Therefore,the LPI can be used to forecast lightning density.展开更多
In order to improve the availability of regional model precipitation forecast, this project intends to use the measured heavy rainfall data of dense automatic stations to carry out historical precipitation in the high...In order to improve the availability of regional model precipitation forecast, this project intends to use the measured heavy rainfall data of dense automatic stations to carry out historical precipitation in the high resolution: the Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System (SWAN) quantitative precipitation forecast and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) regional numerical model precipitation forecast in short-term nowcasting aging. Based on the error analysis, the grid fusion technology is used to establish the measured rainfall, HRRR regional model precipitation forecast, and optical flow radar quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) three-source fusion correction scheme, comprehensively integrate the revised forecasting effect, adjust the fusion correction parameters, establish an optimal correction plan, generate a frozen rolling update revised product based on measured dense data and short-term forecast, and put it into business operation, and perform real-time effect rolling test evaluation on the forecast product.展开更多
基金Supported by National "11th Five-year" Science and Technology Support Item,China(2008BAC37B012008BAC37B05)Item of Tianjin Meteorological Service,China(201002)
文摘Abstract By testing and analyzing BJ-RUC forecast of one precipitation process, MODE was introduced. MODE could give objective comparison from position of precipitation falling zone, shape and direction, and reflect intensity difference between forecast and actual situation, which comprehensively reflected precipitation forecast performance of the model, and was close to subjective judgment thinking of forecaster.
文摘Heavy rain is a kind of severe weather, often causing floods and serious soil erosion, leading to engineering losses, embankment rupture and crop flooding and other significant economic losses. Especially for some low-lying terrain areas, rainwater cannot quickly vent caused by farm water and soil moisture being too saturated, so it will cause more geological disasters. This article combines live and forecast data, aiming at the results of the mid-rainstorm forecast in North China during the period of 7.19-2016, and compares with the actual situation of rainstorm. We carry out the mid-term forecast of the rainstorm. The atmosphere is a kind of medium with various fluctuation phenomena, and its physical properties and changes are studied by the analysis of volatility which is an important research method. It is important to improve the accuracy of such severe weather forecasting rainstorms and to take precautionary measures in a timely manner to minimize the losses caused by rainstorms.
基金This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under the grant !No. 69873030
文摘To generate a test set for a given circuit (including both combinational and sequential circuits), choice of an algorithm within a number of existing test generation algorithms to apply is bound to vary from circuit to circuit. In this paper, the genetic algorithms are used to construct the models of existing test generation algorithms in making such choice more easily. Therefore, we may forecast the testability parameters of a circuit before using the real test generation algorithm. The results also can be used to evaluate the efficiency of the existing test generation algorithms. Experimental results are given to convince the readers of the truth and the usefulness of this approach.
文摘This research uses Japan facsimile data in May-September of 2011-2015 in Fumeng and Zhangwu County of Fuxin, Liaoning, China as the site selection for high altitude NECV circulation background, using statistical and synoptic methods testing the combination of test and Analysis on Japanese numerical precipitation prediction and error. The prediction equation of cold vortex precipitation in the region is established by SPSS software. It is predicted whether the product predicts precipitation, water vapor condition and vertical velocity according to the Japanese numerical forecast. The results show that the fitting rate is 88% in the past 5 years, and the rate of cold vortex precipitation in the summer of 2016 is 89%.
文摘The model for forecasting the test data on mechanical products is established in the application of the grey system theories. A new formula of the background value is introduced into the model. The result of an example shows the method can reduce test expense and enhance the precision of forecasting.
基金Supported by 2017 Construction Project of Meteorological Guaranteeing Project of Mountain Torrent Geological Disaster Prevention and Control of Hubei Meteorological Service Center(Traffic Forecast Service Ability Construction)
文摘In this paper,the monitoring data of road surface temperature,air temperature,wind speed,wind direction,relative humidity and precipitation from the automatic weather stations of Hurongxi,Hanyi,Wuhuang and Huanghuang on Huyu expressway from June 2013 to August 2014 were used to investigate the change characteristics of different sections' road surface temperatures in different seasons and sky conditions. The forecast models of the maximum and minimum road surface temperatures were established on different sections by statistical analysis methods,and the forecast results were verified. The results showed that the road surface temperature and air temperature of Hurongxi,Hanyi,Wuhuang and Huanghuang displayed obvious diurnal variation,but the difference between the road surface temperature and air temperature was larger. Compared with the other three sections,the maximum difference between the road surface temperature and air temperature on Hurongxi increased in winter and decreased in summer overall. The road surface temperature was close to air temperature on Hurongxi after sunset on sunny to cloudy and overcast in winter,while less than air temperature on Hanyi,Wuhuang and Huanghuang. The air temperature was less than road surface temperature on the four sections on rainy day and significant on Hurongxi. In summer,the air temperature was less than road surface temperature on the four sections under three sky conditions and the difference between them in afternoon was the biggest on sunny to cloudy and overcast. The road surface temperature was very close to each other among the four sections in January,while which was rising with the decrease of altitude in April,July and October. The forecast result of the road surface temperature was close to actual result on Hurongxi and Huanghuang,so which can be for reference. But there were some big errors between the forecast result and actual result in several timings on Hanyi and Wuhuang,so the forecast result should be corrected for actual business work.
基金financially supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421 401)
文摘The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study the obtaining method of meticulous climate forecast product and test its forecast effect. [Method] Based on the national standard surface observation data and secondary data bank obtained by means of distance weight interpolation method, the model of climate forecast was established, and the timing, fixed-point and quantitative meticulous climate forecast of meteorological elements was obtained by using many forecast methods and artificial revision, finally the forecast effect was tested. [Result] At present, meticulous climate forecast system was used to predict the daily, five-day, ten-day, monthly, seasonal and annual variation of six meteorological elements (including average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, average pressure and sunshine) in 10 meteorological stations in Guangzhou City. The forecast effect of meteorological elements in 10 stations in Guangzhou City from 2006 to 2010 was tested, and the average scores of monthly precipitation, average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were 75.0, 94.5, 98.6 and 88.9, respectively, while the scores of five-day meteorological elements were 77.1, 90.6, 90.1 and 82.8, which met the requirement of objective management of Guangdong Meteorological Observatory. [Conclusion] Meticulous climate forecast system could be widely used in the forecast of agricultural meteorological disasters and fixed-point forecast in large reservoir, new airport and nuclear power station.
基金Supported by the Scientific Research of Qinghai Meteorological Bureau(2017 No.[28])
文摘The mesoscale forecasting model WRF is used to simulate two strong convective weather processes accompanied by lightning in Qinghai Province,and the simulated lightning potential index (LPI) and the observed lightning are compared.Finally,the application of LPI in another lightening case is examined.The results show that the simulated LPI corresponds well to the observed lightning in time.In terms of spatial distribution,the simulated LPI tends to be consistent with the observed lightning density,but there are some minor differences in the locations.Therefore,the LPI can be used to forecast lightning density.
文摘In order to improve the availability of regional model precipitation forecast, this project intends to use the measured heavy rainfall data of dense automatic stations to carry out historical precipitation in the high resolution: the Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System (SWAN) quantitative precipitation forecast and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) regional numerical model precipitation forecast in short-term nowcasting aging. Based on the error analysis, the grid fusion technology is used to establish the measured rainfall, HRRR regional model precipitation forecast, and optical flow radar quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) three-source fusion correction scheme, comprehensively integrate the revised forecasting effect, adjust the fusion correction parameters, establish an optimal correction plan, generate a frozen rolling update revised product based on measured dense data and short-term forecast, and put it into business operation, and perform real-time effect rolling test evaluation on the forecast product.
