Accurate short-term forecast of offshore wind fields is still challenging for numerical weather prediction models.Based on three years of 48-hour forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecas...Accurate short-term forecast of offshore wind fields is still challenging for numerical weather prediction models.Based on three years of 48-hour forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System global model(ECMWF-IFS)over 14 offshore weather stations along the coast of Shandong Province,this study introduces a multi-task learning(MTL)model(TabNet-MTL),which significantly improves the forecast bias of near-surface wind direction and speed simultaneously.TabNet-MTL adopts the feature engineering method,utilizes mean square error as the loss function,and employs the 5-fold cross validation method to ensure the generalization ability of the trained model.It demonstrates superior skills in wind field correction across different forecast lead times over all stations compared to its single-task version(TabNet-STL)and three other popular single-task learning models(Random Forest,LightGBM,and XGBoost).Results show that it significantly reduces root mean square error of the ECMWF-IFS wind speed forecast from 2.20 to 1.25 m s−1,and increases the forecast accuracy of wind direction from 50%to 65%.As an explainable deep learning model,the weather stations and long-term temporal statistics of near-surface wind speed are identified as the most influential variables for TabNet-MTL in constructing its feature engineering.展开更多
Post-processing correction is an effective way to improve the model forecasting result. Especially, the machine learning methods have played increasingly important roles in recent years. Taking the meteorological obse...Post-processing correction is an effective way to improve the model forecasting result. Especially, the machine learning methods have played increasingly important roles in recent years. Taking the meteorological observational data in a period of two years as the reference, the maximum and minimum temperature predictions of Shenyang station from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national intelligent grid forecasts are objectively corrected by using wavelet analysis, sliding training and other technologies. The evaluation results show that the sliding training time window of the maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature, and their difference is the largest in August, with a difference of 2.6 days. The objective correction product of maximum temperature shows a good performance in spring, while that of minimum temperature performs well throughout the whole year, with an accuracy improvement of 97% to 186%. The correction effect in the central plains is better than in the regions with complex terrain. As for the national intelligent grid forecasts, the objective correction products have shown positive skills in predicting the maximum temperatures in spring (the skill-score reaches 0.59) and in predicting the minimum temperature at most times of the year (the skill-score reaches 0.68).展开更多
This paper presents a new multiple linear regression（MLR） approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA（Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis） system fo...This paper presents a new multiple linear regression（MLR） approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA（Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis） system for the Eastern Alps.The generalized form of the model approximates the updated precipitation forecast as a linear response to combinations of predictors selected through a backward elimination algorithm from a pool of predictors. The predictors comprise the raw output of the extrapolated precipitation forecast, the latest radar observations, the convective analysis, and the precipitation analysis. For every MLR model, bias and distribution correction procedures are designed to further correct the systematic regression errors. Applications of the MLR models to a verification dataset containing two months of qualified samples,and to one-month gridded data, are performed and evaluated. Generally, MLR yields slight, but definite, improvements in the intensity accuracy of forecasts during the late evening to morning period, and significantly improves the forecasts for large thresholds. The structure-amplitude-location scores, used to evaluate the performance of the MLR approach,based on its simulation of morphological features, indicate that MLR typically reduces the overestimation of amplitudes and generates similar horizontal structures in precipitation patterns and slightly degraded location forecasts, when compared with the extrapolated nowcasting.展开更多
This paper presents a new correction method, "instant correction method(ICM)", to improve the accuracy of numerical prediction products(NPP) and provide weather variables at grid cells. The ICM makes use of ...This paper presents a new correction method, "instant correction method(ICM)", to improve the accuracy of numerical prediction products(NPP) and provide weather variables at grid cells. The ICM makes use of the continuity in time of the forecast errors at different forecast times to improve the accuracy of large scale NPP. To apply the ICM in China, an ensemble correction scheme is designed to correct the T213 NPP(the most popular NPP in China) through different statistical methods. The corrected T213 NPP(ICM T213 NPP) are evaluated by four popular indices: Correlation coefficient, climate anomalies correlation coefficient, root-mean-square-errors(RMSE), and confidence intervals(CI). The results show that the ICM T213 NPP are more accurate than the original T213 NPP in both the training period(2003–2008) and the validation period(2009–2010). Applications in China over the past three years indicate that the ICM is simple, fast, and reliable. Because of its low computing cost, end users in need of more accurate short-range weather forecasts around China can benefit greatly from the method.展开更多
基金the National Key Research and Development Plan of China[Grant No.2023YFB3002400]the Shanghai 2021 Natural Science Foundation[Grant Nos.21ZR1420400 and 21ZR1419800]+1 种基金the Shanghai 2023 Natural Science Foundation[Grant No.23ZR1463000]the Shandong Provincial Meteorological Bureau Scientific Research Project[Grant No.2023SDBD05].
文摘Accurate short-term forecast of offshore wind fields is still challenging for numerical weather prediction models.Based on three years of 48-hour forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System global model(ECMWF-IFS)over 14 offshore weather stations along the coast of Shandong Province,this study introduces a multi-task learning(MTL)model(TabNet-MTL),which significantly improves the forecast bias of near-surface wind direction and speed simultaneously.TabNet-MTL adopts the feature engineering method,utilizes mean square error as the loss function,and employs the 5-fold cross validation method to ensure the generalization ability of the trained model.It demonstrates superior skills in wind field correction across different forecast lead times over all stations compared to its single-task version(TabNet-STL)and three other popular single-task learning models(Random Forest,LightGBM,and XGBoost).Results show that it significantly reduces root mean square error of the ECMWF-IFS wind speed forecast from 2.20 to 1.25 m s−1,and increases the forecast accuracy of wind direction from 50%to 65%.As an explainable deep learning model,the weather stations and long-term temporal statistics of near-surface wind speed are identified as the most influential variables for TabNet-MTL in constructing its feature engineering.
文摘Post-processing correction is an effective way to improve the model forecasting result. Especially, the machine learning methods have played increasingly important roles in recent years. Taking the meteorological observational data in a period of two years as the reference, the maximum and minimum temperature predictions of Shenyang station from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national intelligent grid forecasts are objectively corrected by using wavelet analysis, sliding training and other technologies. The evaluation results show that the sliding training time window of the maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature, and their difference is the largest in August, with a difference of 2.6 days. The objective correction product of maximum temperature shows a good performance in spring, while that of minimum temperature performs well throughout the whole year, with an accuracy improvement of 97% to 186%. The correction effect in the central plains is better than in the regions with complex terrain. As for the national intelligent grid forecasts, the objective correction products have shown positive skills in predicting the maximum temperatures in spring (the skill-score reaches 0.59) and in predicting the minimum temperature at most times of the year (the skill-score reaches 0.68).
基金supported by Beijing Science & Technology Commission (Grant No. Z151100002115012)
文摘This paper presents a new multiple linear regression（MLR） approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA（Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis） system for the Eastern Alps.The generalized form of the model approximates the updated precipitation forecast as a linear response to combinations of predictors selected through a backward elimination algorithm from a pool of predictors. The predictors comprise the raw output of the extrapolated precipitation forecast, the latest radar observations, the convective analysis, and the precipitation analysis. For every MLR model, bias and distribution correction procedures are designed to further correct the systematic regression errors. Applications of the MLR models to a verification dataset containing two months of qualified samples,and to one-month gridded data, are performed and evaluated. Generally, MLR yields slight, but definite, improvements in the intensity accuracy of forecasts during the late evening to morning period, and significantly improves the forecasts for large thresholds. The structure-amplitude-location scores, used to evaluate the performance of the MLR approach,based on its simulation of morphological features, indicate that MLR typically reduces the overestimation of amplitudes and generates similar horizontal structures in precipitation patterns and slightly degraded location forecasts, when compared with the extrapolated nowcasting.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91125010)
文摘This paper presents a new correction method, "instant correction method(ICM)", to improve the accuracy of numerical prediction products(NPP) and provide weather variables at grid cells. The ICM makes use of the continuity in time of the forecast errors at different forecast times to improve the accuracy of large scale NPP. To apply the ICM in China, an ensemble correction scheme is designed to correct the T213 NPP(the most popular NPP in China) through different statistical methods. The corrected T213 NPP(ICM T213 NPP) are evaluated by four popular indices: Correlation coefficient, climate anomalies correlation coefficient, root-mean-square-errors(RMSE), and confidence intervals(CI). The results show that the ICM T213 NPP are more accurate than the original T213 NPP in both the training period(2003–2008) and the validation period(2009–2010). Applications in China over the past three years indicate that the ICM is simple, fast, and reliable. Because of its low computing cost, end users in need of more accurate short-range weather forecasts around China can benefit greatly from the method.
