As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods fa...As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods face challenges:some are too simplistic to capture complex traffic patterns effectively,and others are overly complex,leading to excessive communication overhead between cloud and edge devices.Moreover,the problem of single point failure limits their robustness and reliability in real-world applications.To tackle these challenges,this paper proposes a new method,CMBA-FL,a Communication-Mitigated and Blockchain-Assisted Federated Learning model.First,CMBA-FL improves the client model’s ability to capture temporal traffic patterns by employing the Encoder-Decoder framework for each edge device.Second,to reduce the communication overhead during federated learning,we introduce a verification method based on parameter update consistency,avoiding unnecessary parameter updates.Third,to mitigate the risk of a single point of failure,we integrate consensus mechanisms from blockchain technology.To validate the effectiveness of CMBA-FL,we assess its performance on two widely used traffic datasets.Our experimental results show that CMBA-FL reduces prediction error by 11.46%,significantly lowers communication overhead,and improves security.展开更多
The increase in population and vehicles exacerbates traffic congestion and management difficulties.Therefore,achieving accurate and efficient traffic flow prediction is crucial for urban transportation.For that reason...The increase in population and vehicles exacerbates traffic congestion and management difficulties.Therefore,achieving accurate and efficient traffic flow prediction is crucial for urban transportation.For that reason,we propose a graph federated learning-based digital twin traffic flow prediction method(GFLDT)by integrating the benefits of collaborative intelligence and computation of intelligent IoT.Specifically,we construct a digital twin network for predicting traffic flow,which is divided into client twin and global twin.Based on this,we adopt the concept of graph federated learning to learn the temporal dependence of traffic flow using local data from client twins,and the spatial dependence of traffic flow using global information from global twins.In addition,we validate on a real traffic dataset,and the results show that through collaborative training of the client twins and the global twins,GFLDT achieves accurate traffic flow prediction while protecting data security.展开更多
Accurate traffic flow prediction(TFP)is vital for efficient and sustainable transportation management and the development of intelligent traffic systems.However,missing data in real-world traffic datasets poses a sign...Accurate traffic flow prediction(TFP)is vital for efficient and sustainable transportation management and the development of intelligent traffic systems.However,missing data in real-world traffic datasets poses a significant challenge to maintaining prediction precision.This study introduces REPTF-TMDI,a novel method that combines a Reduced Error Pruning Tree Forest(REPTree Forest)with a newly proposed Time-based Missing Data Imputation(TMDI)approach.The REP Tree Forest,an ensemble learning approach,is tailored for time-related traffic data to enhance predictive accuracy and support the evolution of sustainable urbanmobility solutions.Meanwhile,the TMDI approach exploits temporal patterns to estimate missing values reliably whenever empty fields are encountered.The proposed method was evaluated using hourly traffic flow data from a major U.S.roadway spanning 2012-2018,incorporating temporal features(e.g.,hour,day,month,year,weekday),holiday indicator,and weather conditions(temperature,rain,snow,and cloud coverage).Experimental results demonstrated that the REPTF-TMDI method outperformed conventional imputation techniques across various missing data ratios by achieving an average 11.76%improvement in terms of correlation coefficient(R).Furthermore,REPTree Forest achieved improvements of 68.62%in RMSE and 70.52%in MAE compared to existing state-of-the-art models.These findings highlight the method’s ability to significantly boost traffic flow prediction accuracy,even in the presence of missing data,thereby contributing to the broader objectives of sustainable urban transportation systems.展开更多
Precise traffic flow forecasting is essential for mitigating urban traffic congestion.However,it is difficult for existing methods to adequately capture the dynamic spatio-temporal characteristics and multiscale tempo...Precise traffic flow forecasting is essential for mitigating urban traffic congestion.However,it is difficult for existing methods to adequately capture the dynamic spatio-temporal characteristics and multiscale temporal dependencies of traffic flow.A traffic flow prediction model with multiscale temporal awareness and graph diffusion attention networks(MT-GDAN)is proposed to address these issues.Specifically,a graph diffusion attention module is constructed,which dynamically adjusts and calculates the weights of neighboring nodes in the graph structure using a random graph attention network(GAT)and captures the spatial characteristics of hidden nodes through an adaptive adjacency matrix,thus better exploiting the dynamic spatio-temporal properties of traffic flow.Secondly,a multiscale isometric convolutional network and bi-level routing attention are used to construct a multiscale temporal awareness module.The former extracts local information of traffic flow segments by convolution with different sizes of convolution kernels and then introduces isometric convolution to obtain the global temporal relationship between local features of traffic flow segments;the latter filters irrelevant spatio-temporal features at a coarse regional level and focuses locally on key points to more accurately capture the multiscale temporal dependencies of traffic flows.Experimental results reveal that the MT-GDAN model surpasses the mainstream baseline model in terms of forecasting accuracy and exhibits good prediction performance.展开更多
Traffic flow prediction is a key component of intelligent transportation systems,particularly in datascarce regions where traditional models relying on complete datasets often fail to provide accurate forecasts.These ...Traffic flow prediction is a key component of intelligent transportation systems,particularly in datascarce regions where traditional models relying on complete datasets often fail to provide accurate forecasts.These regions are characterized by limited sensor coverage and sparse data collection,pose significant challenges for existing prediction methods.To address this,we propose a novel transfer learning framework called transfer learning with deep knowledge distillation(TL-DKD),which combines graph neural network(GNN)with deep knowledge distillation to enable effective knowledge transfer from data-rich to data-scarce domains.Our contributions are three-fold:(1)We introduce,for the first time,a unique integration of deep knowledge distillation and transfer learning,enhancing feature adaptability across diverse traffic datasets while addressing data scarcity.(2)We design an encoder-decoder architecture where the encoder retains generalized spatiotemporal patterns fromsource domains,and the decoder finetunes predictions for target domains,ensuring minimal information loss during transfer.(3)Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets(METR-LA,PeMS-Bay,PeMS03/04/08)demonstrate the framework’s robustness.The TL-DKD model achieves significant improvements in prediction accuracy,especially in data-scarce scenarios.For example,the PEMSD4 dataset in multi-region experiments,it achieves a mean absolute error(MAE)of 20.08,a mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 13.59%,and a root mean squared error(RMSE)of 31.75 for 30-min forecasts.Additionally,noise-augmented experiments show improved adaptability under perturbed data conditions.These results highlight the framework’s practical impact,offering a scalable solution for accurate traffic predictions in resource-constrained environments.展开更多
Accurate traffic flow prediction has a profound impact on modern traffic management. Traffic flow has complex spatial-temporal correlations and periodicity, which poses difficulties for precise prediction. To address ...Accurate traffic flow prediction has a profound impact on modern traffic management. Traffic flow has complex spatial-temporal correlations and periodicity, which poses difficulties for precise prediction. To address this problem, a Multi-head Self-attention and Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (MSSTGCN) for multiscale traffic flow prediction is proposed. Firstly, to capture the hidden traffic periodicity of traffic flow, traffic flow is divided into three kinds of periods, including hourly, daily, and weekly data. Secondly, a graph attention residual layer is constructed to learn the global spatial features across regions. Local spatial-temporal dependence is captured by using a T-GCN module. Thirdly, a transformer layer is introduced to learn the long-term dependence in time. A position embedding mechanism is introduced to label position information for all traffic sequences. Thus, this multi-head self-attention mechanism can recognize the sequence order and allocate weights for different time nodes. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that the MSSTGCN performs better than the baseline methods and can be successfully adapted to traffic prediction tasks.展开更多
Short⁃term traffic flow prediction plays a crucial role in the planning of intelligent transportation systems.Nowadays,there is a large amount of traffic flow data generated from the monitoring devices of urban road n...Short⁃term traffic flow prediction plays a crucial role in the planning of intelligent transportation systems.Nowadays,there is a large amount of traffic flow data generated from the monitoring devices of urban road networks,which contains road network traffic information with high application value.In this study,an improved spatio⁃temporal attention transformer model(ISTA⁃transformer model)is proposed to provide a more accurate method for predicting multi⁃step short⁃term traffic flow based on monitoring data.By embedding a temporal attention layer and a spatial attention layer in the model,the model learns the relationship between traffic flows at different time intervals and different geographic locations,and realizes more accurate multi⁃step short⁃time flow prediction.Finally,we validate the superiority of the model with monitoring data spanning 15 days from 620 monitoring points in Qingdao,China.In the four time steps of prediction,the MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)values of ISTA⁃transformers prediction results are 0.22,0.29,0.37,and 0.38,respectively,and its prediction accuracy is usually better than that of six baseline models(Transformer,GRU,CNN,LSTM,Seq2Seq and LightGBM),which indicates that the proposed model in this paper always has a better ability to explain the prediction results with the time steps in the multi⁃step prediction.展开更多
Traffic flow prediction is an important component for real-time traffic-adaptive signal control in urban arterial networks.By exploring available detector and signal controller information from neighboring intersectio...Traffic flow prediction is an important component for real-time traffic-adaptive signal control in urban arterial networks.By exploring available detector and signal controller information from neighboring intersections,a dynamic data-driven flow prediction model was developed.The model consists of two prediction components based on the signal states(red or green) for each movement at an upstream intersection.The characteristics of each signal state were carefully examined and the corresponding travel time from the upstream intersection to the approach in question at the downstream intersection was predicted.With an online turning proportion estimation method,along with the predicted travel times,the anticipated vehicle arrivals can be forecasted at the downstream intersection.The model performance was tested at a set of two signalized intersections located in the city of Gainesville,Florida,USA,using the CORSIM microscopic simulation package.Analysis results show that the model agrees well with empirical arrival data measured at 10 s intervals within an acceptable range of 10%-20%,and show a normal distribution.It is reasonably believed that the model has potential applicability for use in truly proactive real-time traffic adaptive signal control systems.展开更多
According to the time series characteristics of the trajectory history data,we predicted and analyzed the traffic flow.This paper proposed a LSTMXGBoost model based urban road short-term traffic flow prediction in ord...According to the time series characteristics of the trajectory history data,we predicted and analyzed the traffic flow.This paper proposed a LSTMXGBoost model based urban road short-term traffic flow prediction in order to analyze and solve the problems of periodicity,stationary and abnormality of time series.It can improve the traffic flow prediction effect,achieve efficient traffic guidance and traffic control.The model combined the characteristics of LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)network and XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting)algorithms.First,we used the LSTM model that increases dropout layer to train the data set after preprocessing.Second,we replaced the full connection layer with the XGBoost model.Finally,we depended on the model training to strengthen the data association,avoided the overfitting phenomenon of the fully connected layer,and enhanced the generalization ability of the prediction model.We used the Kears based on TensorFlow to build the LSTM-XGBoost model.Using speed data samples of multiple road sections in Shenzhen to complete the model verification,we achieved the comparison of the prediction effects of the model.The results show that the combined prediction model used in this paper can not only improve the accuracy of prediction,but also improve the practicability,real-time and scalability of the model.展开更多
Traffic flow prediction is an important part of the intelligent transportation system. Accurate multi-step traffic flow prediction plays an important role in improving the operational efficiency of the traffic network...Traffic flow prediction is an important part of the intelligent transportation system. Accurate multi-step traffic flow prediction plays an important role in improving the operational efficiency of the traffic network. Since traffic flow data has complex spatio-temporal correlation and non-linearity, existing prediction methods are mainly accomplished through a combination of a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and a recurrent neural network. The combination strategy has an excellent performance in traffic prediction tasks. However, multi-step prediction error accumulates with the predicted step size. Some scholars use multiple sampling sequences to achieve more accurate prediction results. But it requires high hardware conditions and multiplied training time. Considering the spatiotemporal correlation of traffic flow and influence of external factors, we propose an Attention Based Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network considering External Factors (ABSTGCN-EF) for multi-step traffic flow prediction. This model models the traffic flow as diffusion on a digraph and extracts the spatial characteristics of traffic flow through GCN. We add meaningful time-slots attention to the encoder-decoder to form an Attention Encoder Network (AEN) to handle temporal correlation. The attention vector is used as a competitive choice to draw the correlation between predicted states and historical states. We considered the impact of three external factors (daytime, weekdays, and traffic accident markers) on the traffic flow prediction tasks. Experiments on two public data sets show that it makes sense to consider external factors. The prediction performance of our ABSTGCN-EF model achieves 7.2%–8.7% higher than the state-of-the-art baselines.展开更多
Accurate prediction of road traffic flow is a significant part in the intelligent transportation systems.Accurate prediction can alleviate traffic congestion,and reduce environmental pollution.For the management depar...Accurate prediction of road traffic flow is a significant part in the intelligent transportation systems.Accurate prediction can alleviate traffic congestion,and reduce environmental pollution.For the management department,it can make effective use of road resources.For individuals,it can help people plan their own travel paths,avoid congestion,and save time.Owing to complex factors on the road,such as damage to the detector and disturbances from environment,the measured traffic volume can contain noise.Reducing the influence of noise on traffic flow prediction is a piece of very important work.Therefore,in this paper we propose a combination algorithm of denoising and BILSTM to effectively improve the performance of traffic flow prediction.At the same time,three denoising algorithms are compared to find the best combination mode.In this paper,the wavelet(WL) denoising scheme,the empirical mode decomposition(EMD) denoising scheme,and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) denoising scheme are all introduced to suppress outliers in traffic flow data.In addition,we combine the denoising schemes with bidirectional long short-term memory(BILSTM)network to predict the traffic flow.The data in this paper are cited from performance measurement system(PeMS).We choose three kinds of road data(mainline,off ramp,on ramp) to predict traffic flow.The results for mainline show that data denoising can improve prediction accuracy.Moreover,prediction accuracy of BILSTM+EEMD scheme is the highest in the three methods(BILSTM+WL,BILSTM+EMD,BILSTM+EEMD).The results for off ramp and on ramp show the same performance as the results for mainline.It is indicated that this model is suitable for different road sections and long-term prediction.展开更多
In order to improve the accuracy and stability of terminal traffic flow prediction in convective weather,a multi-input deep learning(MICL)model is proposed.On the basis of previous studies,this paper expands the set o...In order to improve the accuracy and stability of terminal traffic flow prediction in convective weather,a multi-input deep learning(MICL)model is proposed.On the basis of previous studies,this paper expands the set of weather characteristics affecting the traffic flow in the terminal area,including weather forecast data and Meteorological Report of Aerodrome Conditions(METAR)data.The terminal airspace is divided into smaller areas based on function and the weather severity index(WSI)characteristics extracted from weather forecast data are established to better quantify the impact of weather.MICL model preserves the advantages of the convolution neural network(CNN)and the long short-term memory(LSTM)model,and adopts two channels to input WSI and METAR information,respectively,which can fully reflect the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of weather in the terminal area.Multi-scene experiments are designed based on the real historical data of Guangzhou Terminal Area operating in typical convective weather.The results show that the MICL model has excellent performance in mean squared error(MSE),root MSE(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE)and other performance indicators compared with the existing machine learning models or deep learning models,such as Knearest neighbor(KNN),support vector regression(SVR),CNN and LSTM.In the forecast period ranging from 30 min to 6 h,the MICL model has the best prediction accuracy and stability.展开更多
Traffic flow prediction,as the basis of signal coordination and travel time prediction,has become a research point in the field of transportation.For traffic flow prediction,researchers have proposed a variety of meth...Traffic flow prediction,as the basis of signal coordination and travel time prediction,has become a research point in the field of transportation.For traffic flow prediction,researchers have proposed a variety of methods,but most of these methods only use the time domain information of traffic flow data to predict the traffic flow,ignoring the impact of spatial correlation on the prediction of target road segment flow,which leads to poor prediction accuracy.In this paper,a traffic flow prediction model called as long short time memory and random forest(LSTM-RF)was proposed based on the combination model.In the process of traffic flow prediction,the long short time memory(LSTM)model was used to extract the time sequence features of the predicted target road segment.Then,the predicted value of LSTM and the collected information of adjacent upstream and downstream sections were simultaneously used as the input features of the random forest model to analyze the spatial-temporal correlation of traffic flow,so as to obtain the final prediction results.The traffic flow data of 132 urban road sections collected by the license plate recognition system in Guiyang City were tested and verified.The results show that the method is better than the single model in prediction accuracy,and the prediction error is obviously reduced compared with the single model.展开更多
Predicting traffic flow is a crucial component of an intelligent transportation system.Precisely monitoring and predicting traffic flow remains a challenging endeavor.However,existingmethods for predicting traffic flo...Predicting traffic flow is a crucial component of an intelligent transportation system.Precisely monitoring and predicting traffic flow remains a challenging endeavor.However,existingmethods for predicting traffic flow do not incorporate various external factors or consider the spatiotemporal correlation between spatially adjacent nodes,resulting in the loss of essential information and lower forecast performance.On the other hand,the availability of spatiotemporal data is limited.This research offers alternative spatiotemporal data with three specific features as input,vehicle type(5 types),holidays(3 types),and weather(10 conditions).In this study,the proposed model combines the advantages of the capability of convolutional(CNN)layers to extract valuable information and learn the internal representation of time-series data that can be interpreted as an image,as well as the efficiency of long short-term memory(LSTM)layers for identifying short-term and long-term dependencies.Our approach may utilize the heterogeneous spatiotemporal correlation features of the traffic flowdataset to deliver better performance traffic flow prediction than existing deep learning models.The research findings show that adding spatiotemporal feature data increases the forecast’s performance;weather by 25.85%,vehicle type by 23.70%,and holiday by 14.02%.展开更多
To accurately predict traffic flow on the highways,this paper proposes a Convolutional Neural Network-Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory-Attention Mechanism(CNN-BiLSTM-Attention)traffic flow prediction model based ...To accurately predict traffic flow on the highways,this paper proposes a Convolutional Neural Network-Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory-Attention Mechanism(CNN-BiLSTM-Attention)traffic flow prediction model based on Kalman-filtered data processing.Firstly,the original fluctuating data is processed by Kalman filtering,which can reduce the instability of short-term traffic flow prediction due to unexpected accidents.Then the local spatial features of the traffic data during different periods are extracted,dimensionality is reduced through a one-dimensional CNN,and the BiLSTM network is used to analyze the time series information.Finally,the Attention Mechanism assigns feature weights and performs Soft-max regression.The experimental results show that the data processed by Kalman filter is more accurate in predicting the results on the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model.Compared with the CNN-BiLSTM model,the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of the Kal-CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model is reduced by 17.58 and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)by 12.38,and the accuracy of the improved model is almost free from non-working days.To further verify the model’s applicability,the experiments were re-run using two other sets of fluctuating data,and the experimental results again demonstrated the stability of the model.Therefore,the Kal-CNN-BiLSTM-Attention traffic flow prediction model proposed in this paper is more applicable to a broader range of data and has higher accuracy.展开更多
As one of the core modules for air traffic flow management,Air Traffic Flow Prediction(ATFP)in the Multi-Airport System(MAS)is a prerequisite for demand and capacity balance in the complex meteorological environment.D...As one of the core modules for air traffic flow management,Air Traffic Flow Prediction(ATFP)in the Multi-Airport System(MAS)is a prerequisite for demand and capacity balance in the complex meteorological environment.Due to the challenge of implicit interaction mechanism among traffic flow,airspace capacity and weather impact,the Weather-aware ATFP(Wa-ATFP)is still a nontrivial issue.In this paper,a novel Multi-faceted Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network(MSTGCN)is proposed to address the Wa-ATFP within the complex operations of MAS.Firstly,a spatio-temporal graph is constructed with three different nodes,including airport,route,and fix to describe the topology structure of MAS.Secondly,a weather-aware multi-faceted fusion module is proposed to integrate the feature of air traffic flow and the auxiliary features of capacity and weather,which can effectively address the complex impact of severe weather,e.g.,thunderstorms.Thirdly,to capture the latent connections of nodes,an adaptive graph connection constructor is designed.The experimental results with the real-world operational dataset in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,China,validate that the proposed approach outperforms the state-of-the-art machine-learning and deep-learning based baseline approaches in performance.展开更多
Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the essential issues in intelligent transportation systems(ITS). A new two-stage traffic flow prediction method named AKNN-AVL method is presented, which combines an advanc...Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the essential issues in intelligent transportation systems(ITS). A new two-stage traffic flow prediction method named AKNN-AVL method is presented, which combines an advanced k-nearest neighbor(AKNN)method and balanced binary tree(AVL) data structure to improve the prediction accuracy. The AKNN method uses pattern recognition two times in the searching process, which considers the previous sequences of traffic flow to forecast the future traffic state. Clustering method and balanced binary tree technique are introduced to build case database to reduce the searching time. To illustrate the effects of these developments, the accuracies performance of AKNN-AVL method, k-nearest neighbor(KNN) method and the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) method are compared. These methods are calibrated and evaluated by the real-time data from a freeway traffic detector near North 3rd Ring Road in Beijing under both normal and incident traffic conditions.The comparisons show that the AKNN-AVL method with the optimal neighbor and pattern size outperforms both KNN method and ARMA method under both normal and incident traffic conditions. In addition, the combinations of clustering method and balanced binary tree technique to the prediction method can increase the searching speed and respond rapidly to case database fluctuations.展开更多
Water transportation today has become increasingly busy because of economic globalization.In order to solve the problem of inaccurate port traffic flow prediction,this paper proposes an algorithm based on gated recurr...Water transportation today has become increasingly busy because of economic globalization.In order to solve the problem of inaccurate port traffic flow prediction,this paper proposes an algorithm based on gated recurrent units(GRUs)and Markov residual correction to pass a fixed cross-section.To analyze the traffic flow of ships,the statistical method of ship traffic flow based on the automatic identification system(AIS)is introduced.And a model is put forward for predicting the ship flow.According to the basic principle of cyclic neural networks,the law of ship traffic flow in the channel is explored in the time series.Experiments have been performed using a large number of AIS data in the waters near Xiazhimen in Zhoushan,Ningbo,and the results show that the accuracy of the GRU-Markov algorithm is higher than that of other algorithms,proving the practicability and effectiveness of this method in ship flow prediction.展开更多
Aiming at the problem that ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method can not completely neutralize the added noise in the decomposition process,which leads to poor reconstruction of decomposition results and l...Aiming at the problem that ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method can not completely neutralize the added noise in the decomposition process,which leads to poor reconstruction of decomposition results and low accuracy of traffic flow prediction,a traffic flow prediction model based on modified ensemble empirical mode decomposition(MEEMD),double-layer bidirectional long-short term memory(DBiLSTM)and attention mechanism is proposed.Firstly,the intrinsic mode functions(IMFs)and residual components(Res)are obtained by using MEEMD algorithm to decompose the original traffic data and separate the noise in the data.Secondly,the IMFs and Res are put into the DBiLSTM network for training.Finally,the attention mechanism is used to enhance the extraction of data features,then the obtained results are reconstructed and added.The experimental results show that in different scenarios,the MEEMD-DBiLSTM-attention(MEEMD-DBA)model can reduce the data reconstruction error effectively and improve the accuracy of the short-term traffic flow prediction.展开更多
Traffic flow prediction is an important component of intelligent transportation systems.Recently,unprecedented data availability and rapid development of machine learning techniques have led to tremendous progress in ...Traffic flow prediction is an important component of intelligent transportation systems.Recently,unprecedented data availability and rapid development of machine learning techniques have led to tremendous progress in this field.This article first introduces the research on traffic flow prediction and the challenges it currently faces.It then proposes a classification method for literature,discussing and analyzing existing research on using machine learning methods to address traffic flow prediction from the perspectives of the prediction preparation process and the construction of prediction models.The article also summarizes innovative modules in these models.Finally,we provide improvement strategies for current baseline models and discuss the challenges and research directions in the field of traffic flow prediction in the future.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.U20A20182.
文摘As an effective strategy to address urban traffic congestion,traffic flow prediction has gained attention from Federated-Learning(FL)researchers due FL’s ability to preserving data privacy.However,existing methods face challenges:some are too simplistic to capture complex traffic patterns effectively,and others are overly complex,leading to excessive communication overhead between cloud and edge devices.Moreover,the problem of single point failure limits their robustness and reliability in real-world applications.To tackle these challenges,this paper proposes a new method,CMBA-FL,a Communication-Mitigated and Blockchain-Assisted Federated Learning model.First,CMBA-FL improves the client model’s ability to capture temporal traffic patterns by employing the Encoder-Decoder framework for each edge device.Second,to reduce the communication overhead during federated learning,we introduce a verification method based on parameter update consistency,avoiding unnecessary parameter updates.Third,to mitigate the risk of a single point of failure,we integrate consensus mechanisms from blockchain technology.To validate the effectiveness of CMBA-FL,we assess its performance on two widely used traffic datasets.Our experimental results show that CMBA-FL reduces prediction error by 11.46%,significantly lowers communication overhead,and improves security.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U23A20272,U22A2069,62272146)Natural Science Foundation of Henan(252300421237).
文摘The increase in population and vehicles exacerbates traffic congestion and management difficulties.Therefore,achieving accurate and efficient traffic flow prediction is crucial for urban transportation.For that reason,we propose a graph federated learning-based digital twin traffic flow prediction method(GFLDT)by integrating the benefits of collaborative intelligence and computation of intelligent IoT.Specifically,we construct a digital twin network for predicting traffic flow,which is divided into client twin and global twin.Based on this,we adopt the concept of graph federated learning to learn the temporal dependence of traffic flow using local data from client twins,and the spatial dependence of traffic flow using global information from global twins.In addition,we validate on a real traffic dataset,and the results show that through collaborative training of the client twins and the global twins,GFLDT achieves accurate traffic flow prediction while protecting data security.
文摘Accurate traffic flow prediction(TFP)is vital for efficient and sustainable transportation management and the development of intelligent traffic systems.However,missing data in real-world traffic datasets poses a significant challenge to maintaining prediction precision.This study introduces REPTF-TMDI,a novel method that combines a Reduced Error Pruning Tree Forest(REPTree Forest)with a newly proposed Time-based Missing Data Imputation(TMDI)approach.The REP Tree Forest,an ensemble learning approach,is tailored for time-related traffic data to enhance predictive accuracy and support the evolution of sustainable urbanmobility solutions.Meanwhile,the TMDI approach exploits temporal patterns to estimate missing values reliably whenever empty fields are encountered.The proposed method was evaluated using hourly traffic flow data from a major U.S.roadway spanning 2012-2018,incorporating temporal features(e.g.,hour,day,month,year,weekday),holiday indicator,and weather conditions(temperature,rain,snow,and cloud coverage).Experimental results demonstrated that the REPTF-TMDI method outperformed conventional imputation techniques across various missing data ratios by achieving an average 11.76%improvement in terms of correlation coefficient(R).Furthermore,REPTree Forest achieved improvements of 68.62%in RMSE and 70.52%in MAE compared to existing state-of-the-art models.These findings highlight the method’s ability to significantly boost traffic flow prediction accuracy,even in the presence of missing data,thereby contributing to the broader objectives of sustainable urban transportation systems.
基金Supported by the by Key R&D Program of Gansu Province(No.23YFGA0063)the Key Talent Project of Gansu Province(No.2024RCXM57,2024RCXM22)the Major Science and Technology Special Program of Gansu Province(No.25ZYJA037).
文摘Precise traffic flow forecasting is essential for mitigating urban traffic congestion.However,it is difficult for existing methods to adequately capture the dynamic spatio-temporal characteristics and multiscale temporal dependencies of traffic flow.A traffic flow prediction model with multiscale temporal awareness and graph diffusion attention networks(MT-GDAN)is proposed to address these issues.Specifically,a graph diffusion attention module is constructed,which dynamically adjusts and calculates the weights of neighboring nodes in the graph structure using a random graph attention network(GAT)and captures the spatial characteristics of hidden nodes through an adaptive adjacency matrix,thus better exploiting the dynamic spatio-temporal properties of traffic flow.Secondly,a multiscale isometric convolutional network and bi-level routing attention are used to construct a multiscale temporal awareness module.The former extracts local information of traffic flow segments by convolution with different sizes of convolution kernels and then introduces isometric convolution to obtain the global temporal relationship between local features of traffic flow segments;the latter filters irrelevant spatio-temporal features at a coarse regional level and focuses locally on key points to more accurately capture the multiscale temporal dependencies of traffic flows.Experimental results reveal that the MT-GDAN model surpasses the mainstream baseline model in terms of forecasting accuracy and exhibits good prediction performance.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52002031)the Shaanxi Province Key R&D Plan Project(No.2024GX-YBXM-002).
文摘Traffic flow prediction is a key component of intelligent transportation systems,particularly in datascarce regions where traditional models relying on complete datasets often fail to provide accurate forecasts.These regions are characterized by limited sensor coverage and sparse data collection,pose significant challenges for existing prediction methods.To address this,we propose a novel transfer learning framework called transfer learning with deep knowledge distillation(TL-DKD),which combines graph neural network(GNN)with deep knowledge distillation to enable effective knowledge transfer from data-rich to data-scarce domains.Our contributions are three-fold:(1)We introduce,for the first time,a unique integration of deep knowledge distillation and transfer learning,enhancing feature adaptability across diverse traffic datasets while addressing data scarcity.(2)We design an encoder-decoder architecture where the encoder retains generalized spatiotemporal patterns fromsource domains,and the decoder finetunes predictions for target domains,ensuring minimal information loss during transfer.(3)Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets(METR-LA,PeMS-Bay,PeMS03/04/08)demonstrate the framework’s robustness.The TL-DKD model achieves significant improvements in prediction accuracy,especially in data-scarce scenarios.For example,the PEMSD4 dataset in multi-region experiments,it achieves a mean absolute error(MAE)of 20.08,a mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 13.59%,and a root mean squared error(RMSE)of 31.75 for 30-min forecasts.Additionally,noise-augmented experiments show improved adaptability under perturbed data conditions.These results highlight the framework’s practical impact,offering a scalable solution for accurate traffic predictions in resource-constrained environments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.62472149,62376089,62202147)Hubei Provincial Science and Technology Plan Project(2023BCB04100).
文摘Accurate traffic flow prediction has a profound impact on modern traffic management. Traffic flow has complex spatial-temporal correlations and periodicity, which poses difficulties for precise prediction. To address this problem, a Multi-head Self-attention and Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (MSSTGCN) for multiscale traffic flow prediction is proposed. Firstly, to capture the hidden traffic periodicity of traffic flow, traffic flow is divided into three kinds of periods, including hourly, daily, and weekly data. Secondly, a graph attention residual layer is constructed to learn the global spatial features across regions. Local spatial-temporal dependence is captured by using a T-GCN module. Thirdly, a transformer layer is introduced to learn the long-term dependence in time. A position embedding mechanism is introduced to label position information for all traffic sequences. Thus, this multi-head self-attention mechanism can recognize the sequence order and allocate weights for different time nodes. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that the MSSTGCN performs better than the baseline methods and can be successfully adapted to traffic prediction tasks.
基金Sponsored by National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YEB1600500).
文摘Short⁃term traffic flow prediction plays a crucial role in the planning of intelligent transportation systems.Nowadays,there is a large amount of traffic flow data generated from the monitoring devices of urban road networks,which contains road network traffic information with high application value.In this study,an improved spatio⁃temporal attention transformer model(ISTA⁃transformer model)is proposed to provide a more accurate method for predicting multi⁃step short⁃term traffic flow based on monitoring data.By embedding a temporal attention layer and a spatial attention layer in the model,the model learns the relationship between traffic flows at different time intervals and different geographic locations,and realizes more accurate multi⁃step short⁃time flow prediction.Finally,we validate the superiority of the model with monitoring data spanning 15 days from 620 monitoring points in Qingdao,China.In the four time steps of prediction,the MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)values of ISTA⁃transformers prediction results are 0.22,0.29,0.37,and 0.38,respectively,and its prediction accuracy is usually better than that of six baseline models(Transformer,GRU,CNN,LSTM,Seq2Seq and LightGBM),which indicates that the proposed model in this paper always has a better ability to explain the prediction results with the time steps in the multi⁃step prediction.
基金Project(71101109) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Traffic flow prediction is an important component for real-time traffic-adaptive signal control in urban arterial networks.By exploring available detector and signal controller information from neighboring intersections,a dynamic data-driven flow prediction model was developed.The model consists of two prediction components based on the signal states(red or green) for each movement at an upstream intersection.The characteristics of each signal state were carefully examined and the corresponding travel time from the upstream intersection to the approach in question at the downstream intersection was predicted.With an online turning proportion estimation method,along with the predicted travel times,the anticipated vehicle arrivals can be forecasted at the downstream intersection.The model performance was tested at a set of two signalized intersections located in the city of Gainesville,Florida,USA,using the CORSIM microscopic simulation package.Analysis results show that the model agrees well with empirical arrival data measured at 10 s intervals within an acceptable range of 10%-20%,and show a normal distribution.It is reasonably believed that the model has potential applicability for use in truly proactive real-time traffic adaptive signal control systems.
基金The authors would like to thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61461027)National Natural Science Foundation of China(61465007)for financial support.
文摘According to the time series characteristics of the trajectory history data,we predicted and analyzed the traffic flow.This paper proposed a LSTMXGBoost model based urban road short-term traffic flow prediction in order to analyze and solve the problems of periodicity,stationary and abnormality of time series.It can improve the traffic flow prediction effect,achieve efficient traffic guidance and traffic control.The model combined the characteristics of LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)network and XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting)algorithms.First,we used the LSTM model that increases dropout layer to train the data set after preprocessing.Second,we replaced the full connection layer with the XGBoost model.Finally,we depended on the model training to strengthen the data association,avoided the overfitting phenomenon of the fully connected layer,and enhanced the generalization ability of the prediction model.We used the Kears based on TensorFlow to build the LSTM-XGBoost model.Using speed data samples of multiple road sections in Shenzhen to complete the model verification,we achieved the comparison of the prediction effects of the model.The results show that the combined prediction model used in this paper can not only improve the accuracy of prediction,but also improve the practicability,real-time and scalability of the model.
基金supported by the Nation Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)under Grant No.61462042 and No.61966018.
文摘Traffic flow prediction is an important part of the intelligent transportation system. Accurate multi-step traffic flow prediction plays an important role in improving the operational efficiency of the traffic network. Since traffic flow data has complex spatio-temporal correlation and non-linearity, existing prediction methods are mainly accomplished through a combination of a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and a recurrent neural network. The combination strategy has an excellent performance in traffic prediction tasks. However, multi-step prediction error accumulates with the predicted step size. Some scholars use multiple sampling sequences to achieve more accurate prediction results. But it requires high hardware conditions and multiplied training time. Considering the spatiotemporal correlation of traffic flow and influence of external factors, we propose an Attention Based Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network considering External Factors (ABSTGCN-EF) for multi-step traffic flow prediction. This model models the traffic flow as diffusion on a digraph and extracts the spatial characteristics of traffic flow through GCN. We add meaningful time-slots attention to the encoder-decoder to form an Attention Encoder Network (AEN) to handle temporal correlation. The attention vector is used as a competitive choice to draw the correlation between predicted states and historical states. We considered the impact of three external factors (daytime, weekdays, and traffic accident markers) on the traffic flow prediction tasks. Experiments on two public data sets show that it makes sense to consider external factors. The prediction performance of our ABSTGCN-EF model achieves 7.2%–8.7% higher than the state-of-the-art baselines.
基金Project supported by the Program of Humanities and Social Science of the Education Ministry of China(Grant No.20YJA630008)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province,China(Grant No.LY20G010004)the K C Wong Magna Fund in Ningbo University,China。
文摘Accurate prediction of road traffic flow is a significant part in the intelligent transportation systems.Accurate prediction can alleviate traffic congestion,and reduce environmental pollution.For the management department,it can make effective use of road resources.For individuals,it can help people plan their own travel paths,avoid congestion,and save time.Owing to complex factors on the road,such as damage to the detector and disturbances from environment,the measured traffic volume can contain noise.Reducing the influence of noise on traffic flow prediction is a piece of very important work.Therefore,in this paper we propose a combination algorithm of denoising and BILSTM to effectively improve the performance of traffic flow prediction.At the same time,three denoising algorithms are compared to find the best combination mode.In this paper,the wavelet(WL) denoising scheme,the empirical mode decomposition(EMD) denoising scheme,and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) denoising scheme are all introduced to suppress outliers in traffic flow data.In addition,we combine the denoising schemes with bidirectional long short-term memory(BILSTM)network to predict the traffic flow.The data in this paper are cited from performance measurement system(PeMS).We choose three kinds of road data(mainline,off ramp,on ramp) to predict traffic flow.The results for mainline show that data denoising can improve prediction accuracy.Moreover,prediction accuracy of BILSTM+EEMD scheme is the highest in the three methods(BILSTM+WL,BILSTM+EMD,BILSTM+EEMD).The results for off ramp and on ramp show the same performance as the results for mainline.It is indicated that this model is suitable for different road sections and long-term prediction.
基金supported by the Civil Aviation Safety Capacity Building Project.
文摘In order to improve the accuracy and stability of terminal traffic flow prediction in convective weather,a multi-input deep learning(MICL)model is proposed.On the basis of previous studies,this paper expands the set of weather characteristics affecting the traffic flow in the terminal area,including weather forecast data and Meteorological Report of Aerodrome Conditions(METAR)data.The terminal airspace is divided into smaller areas based on function and the weather severity index(WSI)characteristics extracted from weather forecast data are established to better quantify the impact of weather.MICL model preserves the advantages of the convolution neural network(CNN)and the long short-term memory(LSTM)model,and adopts two channels to input WSI and METAR information,respectively,which can fully reflect the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of weather in the terminal area.Multi-scene experiments are designed based on the real historical data of Guangzhou Terminal Area operating in typical convective weather.The results show that the MICL model has excellent performance in mean squared error(MSE),root MSE(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE)and other performance indicators compared with the existing machine learning models or deep learning models,such as Knearest neighbor(KNN),support vector regression(SVR),CNN and LSTM.In the forecast period ranging from 30 min to 6 h,the MICL model has the best prediction accuracy and stability.
文摘Traffic flow prediction,as the basis of signal coordination and travel time prediction,has become a research point in the field of transportation.For traffic flow prediction,researchers have proposed a variety of methods,but most of these methods only use the time domain information of traffic flow data to predict the traffic flow,ignoring the impact of spatial correlation on the prediction of target road segment flow,which leads to poor prediction accuracy.In this paper,a traffic flow prediction model called as long short time memory and random forest(LSTM-RF)was proposed based on the combination model.In the process of traffic flow prediction,the long short time memory(LSTM)model was used to extract the time sequence features of the predicted target road segment.Then,the predicted value of LSTM and the collected information of adjacent upstream and downstream sections were simultaneously used as the input features of the random forest model to analyze the spatial-temporal correlation of traffic flow,so as to obtain the final prediction results.The traffic flow data of 132 urban road sections collected by the license plate recognition system in Guiyang City were tested and verified.The results show that the method is better than the single model in prediction accuracy,and the prediction error is obviously reduced compared with the single model.
基金Supported by Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta,Indonesia and Asia University,Taiwan.
文摘Predicting traffic flow is a crucial component of an intelligent transportation system.Precisely monitoring and predicting traffic flow remains a challenging endeavor.However,existingmethods for predicting traffic flow do not incorporate various external factors or consider the spatiotemporal correlation between spatially adjacent nodes,resulting in the loss of essential information and lower forecast performance.On the other hand,the availability of spatiotemporal data is limited.This research offers alternative spatiotemporal data with three specific features as input,vehicle type(5 types),holidays(3 types),and weather(10 conditions).In this study,the proposed model combines the advantages of the capability of convolutional(CNN)layers to extract valuable information and learn the internal representation of time-series data that can be interpreted as an image,as well as the efficiency of long short-term memory(LSTM)layers for identifying short-term and long-term dependencies.Our approach may utilize the heterogeneous spatiotemporal correlation features of the traffic flowdataset to deliver better performance traffic flow prediction than existing deep learning models.The research findings show that adding spatiotemporal feature data increases the forecast’s performance;weather by 25.85%,vehicle type by 23.70%,and holiday by 14.02%.
基金Supported by Program for Young Talents of Science and Technology in Universities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(No.NJYT23060).
文摘To accurately predict traffic flow on the highways,this paper proposes a Convolutional Neural Network-Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory-Attention Mechanism(CNN-BiLSTM-Attention)traffic flow prediction model based on Kalman-filtered data processing.Firstly,the original fluctuating data is processed by Kalman filtering,which can reduce the instability of short-term traffic flow prediction due to unexpected accidents.Then the local spatial features of the traffic data during different periods are extracted,dimensionality is reduced through a one-dimensional CNN,and the BiLSTM network is used to analyze the time series information.Finally,the Attention Mechanism assigns feature weights and performs Soft-max regression.The experimental results show that the data processed by Kalman filter is more accurate in predicting the results on the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model.Compared with the CNN-BiLSTM model,the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of the Kal-CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model is reduced by 17.58 and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)by 12.38,and the accuracy of the improved model is almost free from non-working days.To further verify the model’s applicability,the experiments were re-run using two other sets of fluctuating data,and the experimental results again demonstrated the stability of the model.Therefore,the Kal-CNN-BiLSTM-Attention traffic flow prediction model proposed in this paper is more applicable to a broader range of data and has higher accuracy.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFB2602402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U2033215 and U2133210).
文摘As one of the core modules for air traffic flow management,Air Traffic Flow Prediction(ATFP)in the Multi-Airport System(MAS)is a prerequisite for demand and capacity balance in the complex meteorological environment.Due to the challenge of implicit interaction mechanism among traffic flow,airspace capacity and weather impact,the Weather-aware ATFP(Wa-ATFP)is still a nontrivial issue.In this paper,a novel Multi-faceted Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network(MSTGCN)is proposed to address the Wa-ATFP within the complex operations of MAS.Firstly,a spatio-temporal graph is constructed with three different nodes,including airport,route,and fix to describe the topology structure of MAS.Secondly,a weather-aware multi-faceted fusion module is proposed to integrate the feature of air traffic flow and the auxiliary features of capacity and weather,which can effectively address the complex impact of severe weather,e.g.,thunderstorms.Thirdly,to capture the latent connections of nodes,an adaptive graph connection constructor is designed.The experimental results with the real-world operational dataset in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,China,validate that the proposed approach outperforms the state-of-the-art machine-learning and deep-learning based baseline approaches in performance.
基金Project(2012CB725403)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(71210001,51338008)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject supported by World Capital Cities Smooth Traffic Collaborative Innovation Center and Singapore National Research Foundation Under Its Campus for Research Excellence and Technology Enterprise(CREATE)Programme
文摘Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the essential issues in intelligent transportation systems(ITS). A new two-stage traffic flow prediction method named AKNN-AVL method is presented, which combines an advanced k-nearest neighbor(AKNN)method and balanced binary tree(AVL) data structure to improve the prediction accuracy. The AKNN method uses pattern recognition two times in the searching process, which considers the previous sequences of traffic flow to forecast the future traffic state. Clustering method and balanced binary tree technique are introduced to build case database to reduce the searching time. To illustrate the effects of these developments, the accuracies performance of AKNN-AVL method, k-nearest neighbor(KNN) method and the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) method are compared. These methods are calibrated and evaluated by the real-time data from a freeway traffic detector near North 3rd Ring Road in Beijing under both normal and incident traffic conditions.The comparisons show that the AKNN-AVL method with the optimal neighbor and pattern size outperforms both KNN method and ARMA method under both normal and incident traffic conditions. In addition, the combinations of clustering method and balanced binary tree technique to the prediction method can increase the searching speed and respond rapidly to case database fluctuations.
文摘Water transportation today has become increasingly busy because of economic globalization.In order to solve the problem of inaccurate port traffic flow prediction,this paper proposes an algorithm based on gated recurrent units(GRUs)and Markov residual correction to pass a fixed cross-section.To analyze the traffic flow of ships,the statistical method of ship traffic flow based on the automatic identification system(AIS)is introduced.And a model is put forward for predicting the ship flow.According to the basic principle of cyclic neural networks,the law of ship traffic flow in the channel is explored in the time series.Experiments have been performed using a large number of AIS data in the waters near Xiazhimen in Zhoushan,Ningbo,and the results show that the accuracy of the GRU-Markov algorithm is higher than that of other algorithms,proving the practicability and effectiveness of this method in ship flow prediction.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62162040,61966023)the Higher Educational Innovation Foundation Project of Gansu Province of China(No.2021A-028)the Science and Technology Plan of Gansu Province(No.21ZD4GA028).
文摘Aiming at the problem that ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method can not completely neutralize the added noise in the decomposition process,which leads to poor reconstruction of decomposition results and low accuracy of traffic flow prediction,a traffic flow prediction model based on modified ensemble empirical mode decomposition(MEEMD),double-layer bidirectional long-short term memory(DBiLSTM)and attention mechanism is proposed.Firstly,the intrinsic mode functions(IMFs)and residual components(Res)are obtained by using MEEMD algorithm to decompose the original traffic data and separate the noise in the data.Secondly,the IMFs and Res are put into the DBiLSTM network for training.Finally,the attention mechanism is used to enhance the extraction of data features,then the obtained results are reconstructed and added.The experimental results show that in different scenarios,the MEEMD-DBiLSTM-attention(MEEMD-DBA)model can reduce the data reconstruction error effectively and improve the accuracy of the short-term traffic flow prediction.
基金supported by 2022 Shenyang Philosophy and Social Science Planning under grant SY202201Z,Liaoning Provincial Department of Education Project under grant LJKZ0588.
文摘Traffic flow prediction is an important component of intelligent transportation systems.Recently,unprecedented data availability and rapid development of machine learning techniques have led to tremendous progress in this field.This article first introduces the research on traffic flow prediction and the challenges it currently faces.It then proposes a classification method for literature,discussing and analyzing existing research on using machine learning methods to address traffic flow prediction from the perspectives of the prediction preparation process and the construction of prediction models.The article also summarizes innovative modules in these models.Finally,we provide improvement strategies for current baseline models and discuss the challenges and research directions in the field of traffic flow prediction in the future.
