Hydraulic models for the generation of flood inundation maps are not commonly applied in mountain river basins because of the difficulty in modeling the hydraulic behavior and the complex topography. This paper presen...Hydraulic models for the generation of flood inundation maps are not commonly applied in mountain river basins because of the difficulty in modeling the hydraulic behavior and the complex topography. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of four twodimensional hydraulic models (HEC-RAS 2D, Iber 2D, Flood Modeller 2D, and PCSWMM 2D) with respect to the generation of flood inundation maps. The study area covers a 5-km reach of the Santa B-arbara River located in the Ecuadorian Andes, at 2330 masl, in Gualaceo. The model's performance was evaluated based on the water surface elevation and flood extent, in terms of the mean absolute difference and measure of fit. The analysis revealed that, for a given case, Iber 2D has the best performance in simulating the water level and inundation for flood events with 20- and 50-year return periods, respectively, followed by Flood Modeller 2D, HEC-RAS 2D, and PCSWMM 2D in terms of their performance. Grid resolution, the way in which hydraulic structures are mimicked, the model code, and the default value of the parameters are considered the main sources of prediction uncertainty.展开更多
Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the character...Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the characteristics of floods during their propagations in natural rivers because all of the terms of the momentum equation are considered in the model. However, no significant research has been conducted on how the model sensitivity affects the accuracy of the downstream hydrograph. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the input parameters 9f the dynamic wave model was performed through field applications in natural rivers and routing experiments in artificial channels using the graphical multi-parametric sensitivity analysis （GMPSA）. The results indicate that the effects of input parameter errors on the output results are more significant in special situations, such as lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the characteristics of a design hydrograph, larger values of the skewness factor and/or time to peak on the channel characteristics, larger values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or the bed slope on the space step, and lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the time step and weighting factor.展开更多
The injection of fuel-generated CO2 into oil reservoirs will lead to two benefits in both enhanced oil recovery （EOR） and the reduction in atmospheric emission of CO2. To get an insight into CO2 miscible flooding pe...The injection of fuel-generated CO2 into oil reservoirs will lead to two benefits in both enhanced oil recovery （EOR） and the reduction in atmospheric emission of CO2. To get an insight into CO2 miscible flooding performance in oil reservoirs, a multi-compositional non-isothermal CO2 miscible flooding mathematical model is developed. The convection and diffusion of CO2-hydrocarbon mixtures in multiphase fluids in reservoirs, mass transfer between CO2 and crude, and formation damages caused by asphaltene precipitation are fully considered in the model. The governing equations are discretized in space using the integral finite difference method. The Newton-Raphson iterative technique was used to solve the nonlinear equation systems of mass and energy conservation. A numerical simulator, in which regular grids and irregular grids are optional, was developed for predicting CO2 miscible flooding processes. Two examples of one-dimensional （1D） regular and three-dimensional （3D） rectangle and polygonal grids are designed to demonstrate the functions of the simulator. Experimental data validate the developed simulator by comparison with 1D simulation results. The applications of the simulator indicate that it is feasible for predicting CO2 flooding in oil reservoirs for EOR.展开更多
The flood hazard management is one of the major challenges in the floodplain regions worldwide.With the rise in population growth and the spread of infrastructural development,the level of risk has increased over time...The flood hazard management is one of the major challenges in the floodplain regions worldwide.With the rise in population growth and the spread of infrastructural development,the level of risk has increased over time.Therefore,the prediction of flood susceptible area is a key challenge for the adoption of management plans.Flood susceptibility modeling is technically a common work,but it is still a very tough job to validate flood susceptible models in a very rigorous and scientific manner.Therefore,the present work in the Atreyee River Basin of India and Bangladesh was planned to establish artificial neural network(ANN),radial basis function(RBF),random forest(RF)and their ensemble-based flood susceptibility models.The flood susceptible models were constructed based on nine flood conditioning parameters.The flood susceptibility models were validated in a conventional way using the receiver operating curve(ROC).To validate the flood-susceptible models,a two dimensional(2D)hydraulic flood simulation model was developed.Also,the index of flood vulnerability model was developed and applied for validating the flood susceptible models,which was a very unique way to validate the predictive models.Friedman test and Wilcoxon Signed rank test were employed to compare the generated flood susceptible models.Results showed that 11.95%-12.99%of the entire basin area(10188.4 km^(2))comes under very high flood-susceptible zones.Accuracy evaluation results have shown that the performance of ensemble flood susceptible models outperforms other standalone machine learning models.The flood simulation model and IFV model were also spatially adjusted with the flood susceptibility models.Therefore,the present study recommended for the ensemble flood susceptibility prediction and IFV based validation along with conventional ways.展开更多
Increasing frequency and severity of flooding have caused tremendous damage in China, requiring more essential countermeasures to alleviate the damage. In this study, the dynamic simulation property of a cellular auto...Increasing frequency and severity of flooding have caused tremendous damage in China, requiring more essential countermeasures to alleviate the damage. In this study, the dynamic simulation property of a cellular automaton was used to make further progress in flood routing. In consideration of terrain＇s influence on flood routing, we regarded the terrain elevation as an auxiliary attribute of a two-dimensional cellular automaton in path selection for flood routing and developed a mathematical model based on a cellular automaton. A numerical case of propagation of an outburst flood in an area of the lower Yangtze River was analyzed with both the fixed-step and variable-step models. The results show that the flood does not spread simultaneously in all directions, but flows into the lower place first, and that the submerged area grows quickly at the beginning, but slowly later on. The final submerged areas obtained from the two different models are consistent, and the flood volume balance test shows that the flood volume meets the requirement of the total volume balance. The analysis of the case shows that the proposed model can be a valuable tool for flood routing.展开更多
Xiangxi River Basin, located in western Hubei Province in central China, is a karst ridge-trough area with an inhomogeneous and complicated distribution of water resources. This paper compares the characteristics of s...Xiangxi River Basin, located in western Hubei Province in central China, is a karst ridge-trough area with an inhomogeneous and complicated distribution of water resources. This paper compares the characteristics of surface and subsurface floods in this karst basin, utilizing a one-parameter Darcian model and the traditional exponential model. The observed hydrographs and inferred water components are strikingly similar for surface and subsurface floods. The Darcian model and the exponential model are based on different views of the flood generation process, with the former fitting the entire hydrograph with a single time constant, and the latter fitting only the recession limb with multiple time constants. Due to the anisotropy and heterogeneity of karst media, a combination of physical and chemical techniques including the use of 3S（remote sensing, geographical information system, global positioning system） method is proposed for an enhanced hydrological investigation to assess and characterize karst water resources in mountainous areas.展开更多
In this study, the Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF) that occurred over Kedarnath in June 2013 was modeled using integrated observations from the field and Remote Sensing(RS). The lake breach parameters such as area, ...In this study, the Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF) that occurred over Kedarnath in June 2013 was modeled using integrated observations from the field and Remote Sensing(RS). The lake breach parameters such as area, depth, breach, and height have been estimated from the field observations and Remote Sensing(RS) data. A number of modelling approaches, including Snow Melt Runoff Model(SRM), Modified Single Flow model(MSF), Watershed Management System(WMS), Simplified Dam Breach Model(SMPDBK) and BREACH were used to model the GLOF. Estimations from SRM produced a runoff of about 22.7 m3 during 16–17, June 2013 over Chorabari Lake. Bathymetry data reported that the lake got filled to its maximum capacity(3822.7 m3) due to excess discharge. Hydrograph obtained from the BREACH model revealed a peak discharge of about 1699 m3/s during an intense water flow episode that lasted for 10–15 minutes on 17 th June 2013. Excess discharge from heavy rainfall and snowmelt into the lake increased its hydrostatic pressure and the lake breached cataclysmically.展开更多
Intense human activities have greatly changed the flood generation conditions in most areas of the world, and have destroyed the consistency in the annual flood peak and volume series. For design flood estimation, coa...Intense human activities have greatly changed the flood generation conditions in most areas of the world, and have destroyed the consistency in the annual flood peak and volume series. For design flood estimation, coaxial correlation diagram and conceptual hydrological model are two frequently used tools to adjust and reconstruct the flood series under human disturbance. This study took a typical mountain catchment of the Haihe River Basin as an example to investigate the effects of human activities on flood regime and to compare and assess the two adjustment methods. The main purpose is to construct a conceptual hydrological model which can incorporate the effects of human activities. The results show that the coaxial correlation diagram is simple and widely-used, but can only adjust the time series of total flood volumes. Therefore, it is only applicable under certain conditions(e.g. There is a strong link between the flood peaks and volumes and the link is not significantly affected by human activities). The conceptual model is a powerful tool to adjust the time series of both flood peak flows and flood volumes over different durations provided that it is closely related to the catchment hydrological characteristics, specifically accounting for the effects of human activities, and incorporating expert knowledge when estimating or calibrating parameters. It is suggested that the two methods should be used together to cross check each other.展开更多
The hydrological models and simpli?ed methods of Saint-venant equations are used extensively in hydrological modeling, in particular for the simulation of the ?ood routing. These models require speci?c and extensive d...The hydrological models and simpli?ed methods of Saint-venant equations are used extensively in hydrological modeling, in particular for the simulation of the ?ood routing. These models require speci?c and extensive data that usually makes the study of ?ood propagation an arduous practice. We present in this work a new model, based on a transfer function, this function is a function of parametric probability density, having a physical meaning with respect to the propagation of a hydrological signal. The inversion of the model is carried out by an optimization technique called Genetic Algorithm. It consists of evolving a population of parameters based primarily on genetic recombination operators and natural selection to?nd the minimum of an objective function that measures the distance between observed and simulated data. The precision of the simulations of the proposed model is compared with the response of the Hayami model and the applicability of the model is tested on a real case, the N'Fis basin river, located in the High Atlas Occidental, which presents elements that appear favorable to the study of the propagation. The results obtained are very satisfactory and the simulation of the proposed model is very close to the response of the Hayami model.展开更多
This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study are...This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.展开更多
The mitigation potential of reforestation for offsetting the deleterious effects of increased flooding and soil erosion projected to occur in Atlantic Canada through future climate change was investigated. Modelling d...The mitigation potential of reforestation for offsetting the deleterious effects of increased flooding and soil erosion projected to occur in Atlantic Canada through future climate change was investigated. Modelling determined a strong but non-linear relationship between extent of vegetative cover and runoff volume and discharge rate for a Nova Scotian watershed, suggesting that reforestation will reduce, but not completely prevent, flooding. Predicted erosion rates were found to be progressively reduced in relation to the extent of upland reforestation. Of three scenarios examined in which 60%, 65%, and 85% of the entire watershed are randomly reforested, only the latter would reduce the elevated erosion expected to occur through climate change back to present-day existing levels. Additional modelling revealed that comparable mitigation of soil erosion can ensue through implementation of 70 m streamside buffer strips, which would only take up 19% of the total surface area. Prioritizing riparian zones for reforestation will therefore subsume less of the overall productive land area and therefore enact a less severe socio-economic impact on agriculture and forestry.展开更多
A large quantity of drilling core, paleontology, geochemistry and geophysics data revealed several features of the Jiyang subbasin during the deposition of the Ekl-ES4x members： （1） the paleotopography of the gentl...A large quantity of drilling core, paleontology, geochemistry and geophysics data revealed several features of the Jiyang subbasin during the deposition of the Ekl-ES4x members： （1） the paleotopography of the gentle slope belt had an extremely low gradient; （2） the paleoclimate frequently alternated between dry and wet periods in a generally arid setting; （3） there was strong weathering around the periphery of the basin; （4） the lake was very shallow; （5） the lake level frequently rose and fell; and （6） the sedimentary environment of the gentle slope belt was an over- flooding lake. All of these factors provided favorable geological conditions for the development of an over-flooding lake delta. The lithologies of the continental over-flooding lake delta deposits are complex and diverse. The compositional maturity is moderate to low, and the grain size distribution curves and sedimentary structures indicate the presence of both gravity and traction currents. The sedimentary microfacies associations consist of a combination of ordered superposition of flood channels, distributary channels and sheet sands. The delta exhibits a weak foreset seismic reflection. The over-flooding lake delta deposits are laterally extensive. The sandstone content is high, and the individual sandstone beds are thin. The flood channel and distributary channel deposits exhibit evidence of bifurcation and lateral migration. The distribution of the sandbodies and the oxidation color of the mudstones provide evidence of cyclic deposition. The paleoclimate was the dominant factor controlling the development of the over-flooding lake delta. Due to the frequently alternating wet and dry paleoclimates, the over-flooding lake delta is characterized by the development of a broad upper plain and a lower delta plain. The upper delta plain is characterized by flood channel deposits, whereas the lower delta plain is represented by distributary channel deposits. The transition zone is characterized by the interaction of flood channels and distributary channels. Due to fault activity, the sandbodies of the over-flooding lake delta were juxtaposed against hydrocarbon source rocks, which was favorable for the development of lithologic reservoirs or structural-lithologic reservoirs. The lower delta plain deposits comprise the most favorable reservoirs.展开更多
Channel roughness is a sensitive parameter in development of hydraulic model for flood forecasting and flood inundation mapping. The requirement of multiple channel roughness coefficient Mannnig’s ‘n’ values along ...Channel roughness is a sensitive parameter in development of hydraulic model for flood forecasting and flood inundation mapping. The requirement of multiple channel roughness coefficient Mannnig’s ‘n’ values along the river has been spelled out through simulation of floods, using HEC-RAS, for years 1998 and 2003, supported with the photographs of river reaches collected during the field visit of the lower Tapi River. The calibrated model, in terms of channel roughness, has been used to simulate the flood for year 2006 in the river. The performance of the calibrated HEC-RAS based model has been accessed by capturing the flood peaks of observed and simulated floods;and computation of root mean squared error (RMSE) for the intermediated gauging stations on the lower Tapi River.展开更多
Immiscible water-alternating-gas（WAG） flooding is an EOR technique that has proven successful for water drive reservoirs due to its ability to improve displacement and sweep efficiency.Nevertheless,considering the c...Immiscible water-alternating-gas（WAG） flooding is an EOR technique that has proven successful for water drive reservoirs due to its ability to improve displacement and sweep efficiency.Nevertheless,considering the complicated phase behavior and various multiphase flow characteristics,gas tends to break through early in production wells in heterogeneous formations because of overriding,fingering,and channeling,which may result in unfavorable recovery performance.On the basis of phase behavior studies,minimum miscibility pressure measurements,and immiscible WAG coreflood experiments,the cubic B-spline model（CBM） was employed to describe the three-phase relative permeability curve.Using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to adjust the vector of unknown model parameters of the CBM sequentially,optimization of production performance including pressure drop,water cut,and the cumulative gas-oil ratio was performed.A novel numerical inversion method was established for estimation of the water-oil-gas relative permeability curve during the immiscible WAG process.Based on the quantitative characterization of major recovery mechanisms,the proposed method was validated by interpreting coreflood data of the immiscible WAG experiment.The proposed method is reliable and can meet engineering requirements.It provides a basic calculation theory for implicit estimation of oil-water-gas relative permeability curve.展开更多
It has been shown by the observed data that during the early 1990′s, the severe disastrous climate occurred in East Asia. In the summer of 1991, severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River basin o...It has been shown by the observed data that during the early 1990′s, the severe disastrous climate occurred in East Asia. In the summer of 1991, severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River basin of China and in South Korea, and it also appeared in South Korea in the summer of 1993. However, in the summer of 1994, a dry and hot summer was caused in the Huaihe River basin of China and in R. O. K.. In order to investigate the seasonal predictability of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods in the summers of 1991-1994 in East Asia have been made by using the Institute of Atmopsheric Physics-Two-Level General Circulation Model (IAP-L2 AGCM), the IAP-Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Model (IAP-CGCM) and the IAP-L2 AGCM including a filtering scheme, respectively. Compared with the observational facts, it is shown that the IAP-L2 AGCM or IAP-CGCM has some predictability for the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, especially for the severe droughts and floods in China and R. O. K.. In this study, a filtering scheme is used to improve the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia. The predicted results show that the filtering scheme to remain the planetary-scale disturbances is an effective method for the improvement of the seasonal prediction of the summer droughts and floods in East Asia.展开更多
The study focused on the application of Flood Routing Models for Flood Mitigation in Orashi River, South-East Nigeria. Flood data were collected for the study area and subjected to statistical analysis. Three flood Ro...The study focused on the application of Flood Routing Models for Flood Mitigation in Orashi River, South-East Nigeria. Flood data were collected for the study area and subjected to statistical analysis. Three flood Routingmodels were comparatively applied including Muskingum model, Level Pool model and Modified Pul’s model. Assumed routing period of 2.3 hours which helped to check excessive flood at the downstream section of the river was used. Also a dimensionless weighting factor of 0.15 was also adopted. Muskingum model and Level Pool model which represent linear relationship between measured outflow and predicted outflow for specified inflow and time change of one hour gave high and positive values of coefficients of correlations of 0.9769 and 0.9732 respectively. The Modified Pul’s model which also represents a linear relationship between measured outflow and predicted outflow for specified inflow and a time change for one hour showed the highest coefficient of correlation of 0.9984 and lowest standard error of 0.1749. Though, flood models of the Muskingum method and Level Pool method exhibited good correlation, their prediction differed significantly with the corresponding models of original data sets because of high standard error and thus not adequate for field application in similar rivers. A design application was carried out using the Modified Pul’s model. The values obtained for routed storage capacity was 348 m3 while the designed capacity was 354 m3. It is recommended that dredging of the river is carried out to achieve the designed capacity. This would eliminate the risk of flooding. The results of the study will serve useful purposes in predicting flood events and design of flood control works in similar basins.展开更多
The manuscript proposed a procedure designed to determine the hazard of total coastal flooding during the impact of hurricanes, which uses in its formulation the combination of river flooding and that caused by marine...The manuscript proposed a procedure designed to determine the hazard of total coastal flooding during the impact of hurricanes, which uses in its formulation the combination of river flooding and that caused by marine upwelling, which </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> multiplied by a density factor of the water that finds an explanation for the effect is shielding and rising of the water level when the currents of both floods collide in the coastal zone. The application of the procedure experimentally in the coastal sector Sevilla, of the municipality Guama province Santiago de Cuba, result</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ing</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> in the confirmation of areas previously mod</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">eled and estimated coastal flooding in the wake of extreme wea</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ther events in the study area;in addition to other new areas that confirm the actual visual and instrumental observations not included in previous studies.展开更多
This study lies within the scope of a strategy of prevention from inundations by the contribution of new technology in stage of the hydrological and geomorphological modeling for protection against the floods in a med...This study lies within the scope of a strategy of prevention from inundations by the contribution of new technology in stage of the hydrological and geomorphological modeling for protection against the floods in a medium of weak at the average risk in South-eastern Tunisia, starting from the catchment area of Zeuss-Koutine. Considering the lack of studies we were brought to extract the area catchment in question, and to deduce its geomorphological and hydrometric characteristics, starting from the digital terrain model. We could obtain, by overlaying maps of slopes, indices and flows, the hydrological zonation of the catchment area of Zeuss-Koutine. The hydrological study of the basin’s slopes of Zeuss-Koutine is not lying out that very little physical information rests primarily on cartographic processes. The use of the latter can be regarded as an allowing indicator, by the crossing of the explanatory factors of the surface flow (slopes and direction of flow), to define a set of homogeneous hydrological zones in the level of the hydrological characteristics (average slopes, altitudes, roughness, etc). It is mainly a question of better taking account of the physical properties of the basins slopes.展开更多
基金supported by the Research Directorate of the University of Cuenca(DIUC)
文摘Hydraulic models for the generation of flood inundation maps are not commonly applied in mountain river basins because of the difficulty in modeling the hydraulic behavior and the complex topography. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of four twodimensional hydraulic models (HEC-RAS 2D, Iber 2D, Flood Modeller 2D, and PCSWMM 2D) with respect to the generation of flood inundation maps. The study area covers a 5-km reach of the Santa B-arbara River located in the Ecuadorian Andes, at 2330 masl, in Gualaceo. The model's performance was evaluated based on the water surface elevation and flood extent, in terms of the mean absolute difference and measure of fit. The analysis revealed that, for a given case, Iber 2D has the best performance in simulating the water level and inundation for flood events with 20- and 50-year return periods, respectively, followed by Flood Modeller 2D, HEC-RAS 2D, and PCSWMM 2D in terms of their performance. Grid resolution, the way in which hydraulic structures are mimicked, the model code, and the default value of the parameters are considered the main sources of prediction uncertainty.
文摘Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the characteristics of floods during their propagations in natural rivers because all of the terms of the momentum equation are considered in the model. However, no significant research has been conducted on how the model sensitivity affects the accuracy of the downstream hydrograph. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the input parameters 9f the dynamic wave model was performed through field applications in natural rivers and routing experiments in artificial channels using the graphical multi-parametric sensitivity analysis （GMPSA）. The results indicate that the effects of input parameter errors on the output results are more significant in special situations, such as lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the characteristics of a design hydrograph, larger values of the skewness factor and/or time to peak on the channel characteristics, larger values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or the bed slope on the space step, and lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the time step and weighting factor.
基金Parts of this work were supported by the National Science and Technology Major Projects (2011ZX05009-002, 2011ZX05009–006)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, the Project-sponsored by SRF for ROCS, SEM, and the joint research on "Investigation of Mathematical Models and Their Applications for Oil, Water and CO2 Flow in Reservoirs" between Colorado School of Mines, U.S.A and PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development (RIPED), CNPC, China
文摘The injection of fuel-generated CO2 into oil reservoirs will lead to two benefits in both enhanced oil recovery （EOR） and the reduction in atmospheric emission of CO2. To get an insight into CO2 miscible flooding performance in oil reservoirs, a multi-compositional non-isothermal CO2 miscible flooding mathematical model is developed. The convection and diffusion of CO2-hydrocarbon mixtures in multiphase fluids in reservoirs, mass transfer between CO2 and crude, and formation damages caused by asphaltene precipitation are fully considered in the model. The governing equations are discretized in space using the integral finite difference method. The Newton-Raphson iterative technique was used to solve the nonlinear equation systems of mass and energy conservation. A numerical simulator, in which regular grids and irregular grids are optional, was developed for predicting CO2 miscible flooding processes. Two examples of one-dimensional （1D） regular and three-dimensional （3D） rectangle and polygonal grids are designed to demonstrate the functions of the simulator. Experimental data validate the developed simulator by comparison with 1D simulation results. The applications of the simulator indicate that it is feasible for predicting CO2 flooding in oil reservoirs for EOR.
文摘The flood hazard management is one of the major challenges in the floodplain regions worldwide.With the rise in population growth and the spread of infrastructural development,the level of risk has increased over time.Therefore,the prediction of flood susceptible area is a key challenge for the adoption of management plans.Flood susceptibility modeling is technically a common work,but it is still a very tough job to validate flood susceptible models in a very rigorous and scientific manner.Therefore,the present work in the Atreyee River Basin of India and Bangladesh was planned to establish artificial neural network(ANN),radial basis function(RBF),random forest(RF)and their ensemble-based flood susceptibility models.The flood susceptible models were constructed based on nine flood conditioning parameters.The flood susceptibility models were validated in a conventional way using the receiver operating curve(ROC).To validate the flood-susceptible models,a two dimensional(2D)hydraulic flood simulation model was developed.Also,the index of flood vulnerability model was developed and applied for validating the flood susceptible models,which was a very unique way to validate the predictive models.Friedman test and Wilcoxon Signed rank test were employed to compare the generated flood susceptible models.Results showed that 11.95%-12.99%of the entire basin area(10188.4 km^(2))comes under very high flood-susceptible zones.Accuracy evaluation results have shown that the performance of ensemble flood susceptible models outperforms other standalone machine learning models.The flood simulation model and IFV model were also spatially adjusted with the flood susceptibility models.Therefore,the present study recommended for the ensemble flood susceptibility prediction and IFV based validation along with conventional ways.
基金supported by the Key Project in the National Science and Technology Pillar Program During the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period(Grant No.2012BAB03B02)the Key Project in Jiangsu Water Science and Technology(Grant No.2009054)the Open Fund of the Research Center on Levee Safety and Disasters Prevention,Ministry of Water Resources(Grant No.201104)
文摘Increasing frequency and severity of flooding have caused tremendous damage in China, requiring more essential countermeasures to alleviate the damage. In this study, the dynamic simulation property of a cellular automaton was used to make further progress in flood routing. In consideration of terrain＇s influence on flood routing, we regarded the terrain elevation as an auxiliary attribute of a two-dimensional cellular automaton in path selection for flood routing and developed a mathematical model based on a cellular automaton. A numerical case of propagation of an outburst flood in an area of the lower Yangtze River was analyzed with both the fixed-step and variable-step models. The results show that the flood does not spread simultaneously in all directions, but flows into the lower place first, and that the submerged area grows quickly at the beginning, but slowly later on. The final submerged areas obtained from the two different models are consistent, and the flood volume balance test shows that the flood volume meets the requirement of the total volume balance. The analysis of the case shows that the proposed model can be a valuable tool for flood routing.
基金supported by the China Geological Survey (No. 12120113103800)
文摘Xiangxi River Basin, located in western Hubei Province in central China, is a karst ridge-trough area with an inhomogeneous and complicated distribution of water resources. This paper compares the characteristics of surface and subsurface floods in this karst basin, utilizing a one-parameter Darcian model and the traditional exponential model. The observed hydrographs and inferred water components are strikingly similar for surface and subsurface floods. The Darcian model and the exponential model are based on different views of the flood generation process, with the former fitting the entire hydrograph with a single time constant, and the latter fitting only the recession limb with multiple time constants. Due to the anisotropy and heterogeneity of karst media, a combination of physical and chemical techniques including the use of 3S（remote sensing, geographical information system, global positioning system） method is proposed for an enhanced hydrological investigation to assess and characterize karst water resources in mountainous areas.
基金conducted as part of the DST, Govt. of India, New Delhi sponsored research project titled "Risk Assessment for Kedarnath Glacial Lake Outburst Floods" under the national project "Mapping Your Neighborhood in Uttarakhand (MANU)"the financial assistance received under the project to accomplish this research
文摘In this study, the Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF) that occurred over Kedarnath in June 2013 was modeled using integrated observations from the field and Remote Sensing(RS). The lake breach parameters such as area, depth, breach, and height have been estimated from the field observations and Remote Sensing(RS) data. A number of modelling approaches, including Snow Melt Runoff Model(SRM), Modified Single Flow model(MSF), Watershed Management System(WMS), Simplified Dam Breach Model(SMPDBK) and BREACH were used to model the GLOF. Estimations from SRM produced a runoff of about 22.7 m3 during 16–17, June 2013 over Chorabari Lake. Bathymetry data reported that the lake got filled to its maximum capacity(3822.7 m3) due to excess discharge. Hydrograph obtained from the BREACH model revealed a peak discharge of about 1699 m3/s during an intense water flow episode that lasted for 10–15 minutes on 17 th June 2013. Excess discharge from heavy rainfall and snowmelt into the lake increased its hydrostatic pressure and the lake breached cataclysmically.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41130639, 51179045, 41201028)the Nonprofit Industry Financial Program of MWR of China (201501022)
文摘Intense human activities have greatly changed the flood generation conditions in most areas of the world, and have destroyed the consistency in the annual flood peak and volume series. For design flood estimation, coaxial correlation diagram and conceptual hydrological model are two frequently used tools to adjust and reconstruct the flood series under human disturbance. This study took a typical mountain catchment of the Haihe River Basin as an example to investigate the effects of human activities on flood regime and to compare and assess the two adjustment methods. The main purpose is to construct a conceptual hydrological model which can incorporate the effects of human activities. The results show that the coaxial correlation diagram is simple and widely-used, but can only adjust the time series of total flood volumes. Therefore, it is only applicable under certain conditions(e.g. There is a strong link between the flood peaks and volumes and the link is not significantly affected by human activities). The conceptual model is a powerful tool to adjust the time series of both flood peak flows and flood volumes over different durations provided that it is closely related to the catchment hydrological characteristics, specifically accounting for the effects of human activities, and incorporating expert knowledge when estimating or calibrating parameters. It is suggested that the two methods should be used together to cross check each other.
文摘The hydrological models and simpli?ed methods of Saint-venant equations are used extensively in hydrological modeling, in particular for the simulation of the ?ood routing. These models require speci?c and extensive data that usually makes the study of ?ood propagation an arduous practice. We present in this work a new model, based on a transfer function, this function is a function of parametric probability density, having a physical meaning with respect to the propagation of a hydrological signal. The inversion of the model is carried out by an optimization technique called Genetic Algorithm. It consists of evolving a population of parameters based primarily on genetic recombination operators and natural selection to?nd the minimum of an objective function that measures the distance between observed and simulated data. The precision of the simulations of the proposed model is compared with the response of the Hayami model and the applicability of the model is tested on a real case, the N'Fis basin river, located in the High Atlas Occidental, which presents elements that appear favorable to the study of the propagation. The results obtained are very satisfactory and the simulation of the proposed model is very close to the response of the Hayami model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51779074 and 41371052)the Special Fund for the Public Welfare Industry of the Ministry of Water Resources of China(Grant No.201501059)+3 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC0404304)the Jiangsu Water Conservancy Science and Technology Project(Grant No.2017027)the Program for Outstanding Young Talents in Colleges and Universities of Anhui Province(Grant No.gxyq2018143)the Natural Science Foundation of Wanjiang University of Technology(Grant No.WG18030)
文摘This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.
文摘The mitigation potential of reforestation for offsetting the deleterious effects of increased flooding and soil erosion projected to occur in Atlantic Canada through future climate change was investigated. Modelling determined a strong but non-linear relationship between extent of vegetative cover and runoff volume and discharge rate for a Nova Scotian watershed, suggesting that reforestation will reduce, but not completely prevent, flooding. Predicted erosion rates were found to be progressively reduced in relation to the extent of upland reforestation. Of three scenarios examined in which 60%, 65%, and 85% of the entire watershed are randomly reforested, only the latter would reduce the elevated erosion expected to occur through climate change back to present-day existing levels. Additional modelling revealed that comparable mitigation of soil erosion can ensue through implementation of 70 m streamside buffer strips, which would only take up 19% of the total surface area. Prioritizing riparian zones for reforestation will therefore subsume less of the overall productive land area and therefore enact a less severe socio-economic impact on agriculture and forestry.
基金jointly supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(No.41402095)the Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2014M550380)+1 种基金National Nature Science Foundation of China(No.U1262203)the Special Foundation of Postdoctoral Innovation Project of Shandong Province
文摘A large quantity of drilling core, paleontology, geochemistry and geophysics data revealed several features of the Jiyang subbasin during the deposition of the Ekl-ES4x members： （1） the paleotopography of the gentle slope belt had an extremely low gradient; （2） the paleoclimate frequently alternated between dry and wet periods in a generally arid setting; （3） there was strong weathering around the periphery of the basin; （4） the lake was very shallow; （5） the lake level frequently rose and fell; and （6） the sedimentary environment of the gentle slope belt was an over- flooding lake. All of these factors provided favorable geological conditions for the development of an over-flooding lake delta. The lithologies of the continental over-flooding lake delta deposits are complex and diverse. The compositional maturity is moderate to low, and the grain size distribution curves and sedimentary structures indicate the presence of both gravity and traction currents. The sedimentary microfacies associations consist of a combination of ordered superposition of flood channels, distributary channels and sheet sands. The delta exhibits a weak foreset seismic reflection. The over-flooding lake delta deposits are laterally extensive. The sandstone content is high, and the individual sandstone beds are thin. The flood channel and distributary channel deposits exhibit evidence of bifurcation and lateral migration. The distribution of the sandbodies and the oxidation color of the mudstones provide evidence of cyclic deposition. The paleoclimate was the dominant factor controlling the development of the over-flooding lake delta. Due to the frequently alternating wet and dry paleoclimates, the over-flooding lake delta is characterized by the development of a broad upper plain and a lower delta plain. The upper delta plain is characterized by flood channel deposits, whereas the lower delta plain is represented by distributary channel deposits. The transition zone is characterized by the interaction of flood channels and distributary channels. Due to fault activity, the sandbodies of the over-flooding lake delta were juxtaposed against hydrocarbon source rocks, which was favorable for the development of lithologic reservoirs or structural-lithologic reservoirs. The lower delta plain deposits comprise the most favorable reservoirs.
文摘Channel roughness is a sensitive parameter in development of hydraulic model for flood forecasting and flood inundation mapping. The requirement of multiple channel roughness coefficient Mannnig’s ‘n’ values along the river has been spelled out through simulation of floods, using HEC-RAS, for years 1998 and 2003, supported with the photographs of river reaches collected during the field visit of the lower Tapi River. The calibrated model, in terms of channel roughness, has been used to simulate the flood for year 2006 in the river. The performance of the calibrated HEC-RAS based model has been accessed by capturing the flood peaks of observed and simulated floods;and computation of root mean squared error (RMSE) for the intermediated gauging stations on the lower Tapi River.
基金the financial support of the Important National Science and Technology Specific Projects of China (Grant No. 2011ZX05010-002)the Important Science and Technology Specific Projects of Petro China (Grant No. 2014E-3203)
文摘Immiscible water-alternating-gas（WAG） flooding is an EOR technique that has proven successful for water drive reservoirs due to its ability to improve displacement and sweep efficiency.Nevertheless,considering the complicated phase behavior and various multiphase flow characteristics,gas tends to break through early in production wells in heterogeneous formations because of overriding,fingering,and channeling,which may result in unfavorable recovery performance.On the basis of phase behavior studies,minimum miscibility pressure measurements,and immiscible WAG coreflood experiments,the cubic B-spline model（CBM） was employed to describe the three-phase relative permeability curve.Using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to adjust the vector of unknown model parameters of the CBM sequentially,optimization of production performance including pressure drop,water cut,and the cumulative gas-oil ratio was performed.A novel numerical inversion method was established for estimation of the water-oil-gas relative permeability curve during the immiscible WAG process.Based on the quantitative characterization of major recovery mechanisms,the proposed method was validated by interpreting coreflood data of the immiscible WAG experiment.The proposed method is reliable and can meet engineering requirements.It provides a basic calculation theory for implicit estimation of oil-water-gas relative permeability curve.
文摘It has been shown by the observed data that during the early 1990′s, the severe disastrous climate occurred in East Asia. In the summer of 1991, severe flood occurred in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River basin of China and in South Korea, and it also appeared in South Korea in the summer of 1993. However, in the summer of 1994, a dry and hot summer was caused in the Huaihe River basin of China and in R. O. K.. In order to investigate the seasonal predictability of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods in the summers of 1991-1994 in East Asia have been made by using the Institute of Atmopsheric Physics-Two-Level General Circulation Model (IAP-L2 AGCM), the IAP-Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Model (IAP-CGCM) and the IAP-L2 AGCM including a filtering scheme, respectively. Compared with the observational facts, it is shown that the IAP-L2 AGCM or IAP-CGCM has some predictability for the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia, especially for the severe droughts and floods in China and R. O. K.. In this study, a filtering scheme is used to improve the seasonal prediction experiments of the summer droughts and floods during the early 1990′s in East Asia. The predicted results show that the filtering scheme to remain the planetary-scale disturbances is an effective method for the improvement of the seasonal prediction of the summer droughts and floods in East Asia.
文摘The study focused on the application of Flood Routing Models for Flood Mitigation in Orashi River, South-East Nigeria. Flood data were collected for the study area and subjected to statistical analysis. Three flood Routingmodels were comparatively applied including Muskingum model, Level Pool model and Modified Pul’s model. Assumed routing period of 2.3 hours which helped to check excessive flood at the downstream section of the river was used. Also a dimensionless weighting factor of 0.15 was also adopted. Muskingum model and Level Pool model which represent linear relationship between measured outflow and predicted outflow for specified inflow and time change of one hour gave high and positive values of coefficients of correlations of 0.9769 and 0.9732 respectively. The Modified Pul’s model which also represents a linear relationship between measured outflow and predicted outflow for specified inflow and a time change for one hour showed the highest coefficient of correlation of 0.9984 and lowest standard error of 0.1749. Though, flood models of the Muskingum method and Level Pool method exhibited good correlation, their prediction differed significantly with the corresponding models of original data sets because of high standard error and thus not adequate for field application in similar rivers. A design application was carried out using the Modified Pul’s model. The values obtained for routed storage capacity was 348 m3 while the designed capacity was 354 m3. It is recommended that dredging of the river is carried out to achieve the designed capacity. This would eliminate the risk of flooding. The results of the study will serve useful purposes in predicting flood events and design of flood control works in similar basins.
文摘The manuscript proposed a procedure designed to determine the hazard of total coastal flooding during the impact of hurricanes, which uses in its formulation the combination of river flooding and that caused by marine upwelling, which </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> multiplied by a density factor of the water that finds an explanation for the effect is shielding and rising of the water level when the currents of both floods collide in the coastal zone. The application of the procedure experimentally in the coastal sector Sevilla, of the municipality Guama province Santiago de Cuba, result</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ing</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> in the confirmation of areas previously mod</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">eled and estimated coastal flooding in the wake of extreme wea</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ther events in the study area;in addition to other new areas that confirm the actual visual and instrumental observations not included in previous studies.
文摘This study lies within the scope of a strategy of prevention from inundations by the contribution of new technology in stage of the hydrological and geomorphological modeling for protection against the floods in a medium of weak at the average risk in South-eastern Tunisia, starting from the catchment area of Zeuss-Koutine. Considering the lack of studies we were brought to extract the area catchment in question, and to deduce its geomorphological and hydrometric characteristics, starting from the digital terrain model. We could obtain, by overlaying maps of slopes, indices and flows, the hydrological zonation of the catchment area of Zeuss-Koutine. The hydrological study of the basin’s slopes of Zeuss-Koutine is not lying out that very little physical information rests primarily on cartographic processes. The use of the latter can be regarded as an allowing indicator, by the crossing of the explanatory factors of the surface flow (slopes and direction of flow), to define a set of homogeneous hydrological zones in the level of the hydrological characteristics (average slopes, altitudes, roughness, etc). It is mainly a question of better taking account of the physical properties of the basins slopes.
