Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture,water resources,ecosystems,and human environment.In the Qilian Mountains,northwestern China,flash droughts are be...Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture,water resources,ecosystems,and human environment.In the Qilian Mountains,northwestern China,flash droughts are becoming more frequently due to the global climate warming.However,the spatiotemporal variations and their driving factors of flash droughts are not clear in this region.In this study,the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5-Land(ERA5-Land)dataset was utilized to identify two types of flash drought events(heatwave-induced and water scarcity-induced flash drought events)that occurred in the growing season(April‒September)during 1981-2020 in this area.The results showed that the frequency of heatwave-induced flash droughts has decreased since 2010,while the frequency of water scarcity-induced flash droughts has declined markedly.Spatially,heatwave-induced flash droughts were predominantly concentrated in the western Qilian Mountains,whereas water scarcity-induced flash droughts were primarily concentrated in the central and eastern Qilian Mountains.A significantly increasing temporal trend in both types of flash droughts in the eastern Qilian Mountains was found.Meanwhile,there was a decreasing temporal trend of heatwave-induced flash droughts in the southwestern part of the region.Additionally,the influence of two major atmospheric modes,i.e.,the El Niño‒Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),on these two types of flash droughts was explored by the Superposed Epoch Analysis.The ENSO mainly influences flash droughts in the central and eastern parts of the Qilian Mountains by altering the strength of the East Asian monsoon,while the NAO mainly affects flash droughts in the entire parts of the Qilian Mountains by inducing anomalous westerlies activity.Our findings have important implications for predicting the evolution of flash drought events in the Qilian Mountains region under continued climate warming.展开更多
The frequent and rapid onset of flash drought poses a serious threat to agriculture and ecosystems.Detecting human influences on flash droughts and estimating their future risks under climate change have attracted gre...The frequent and rapid onset of flash drought poses a serious threat to agriculture and ecosystems.Detecting human influences on flash droughts and estimating their future risks under climate change have attracted great attention.Focusing on a record-breaking flash drought event in the southeastern coastal region of China in summer 2020,the authors found that the suppression of convective precipitation and high temperature caused by the persistent high geopotential height anomalies and land-atmosphere dry coupling were important reasons for the rapid onset and strong intensity of the flash drought.Event attribution analysis with the latest CMIP6 data showed that anthropogenic climate change has not only increased the likelihood of an onset speed and intensity like those of the 2020 flash drought event,by about 93%±20%and 18%±15%,respectively,but also increased the chance of their simultaneous occurrence,by about 86%±38%,according to their joint probability distribution.Under a business-as-usual future scenario(SSP2-4.5),the likelihood of such an onset speed,intensity,and their simultaneous occurrence will further increase,by 85%±33%,49%±8%,and 81%±48%,respectively,as compared with current climate conditions.This study highlights the importance of anthropogenic climate change for accelerating and intensifying flash drought in the southeastern coastal region of China.展开更多
Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop...Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.展开更多
Flash drought is a rapidly intensifying drought with abnormally high temperature,which has greatly threatened crop yields and water supply,and aroused wide public concern in a warming climate.However,the preferable hy...Flash drought is a rapidly intensifying drought with abnormally high temperature,which has greatly threatened crop yields and water supply,and aroused wide public concern in a warming climate.However,the preferable hydrometeorological conditions for flash drought and its association with conventional drought at longer time scales remain unclear.Here,we investigate two types of flash drought over China:one is high-temperature driven(Type Ⅰ),while the other is water-deficit driven(Type Ⅱ).Results show that the frequencies of the two types of flash drought averaged over China during the growing season are comparable.Type I flash drought tends to occur over southern China,where moisture supply is sufficient,while Type Ⅱ is more likely to occur over semi-arid regions such as northern China.Both types of flash drought increase significantly(p<0.01)during 1979–2010,with a doubled rise in Type Ⅰ as compared with Type Ⅱ.Composite analysis shows that high temperature quickly increases evapotranspiration(ET)and reduces soil moisture from two pentads before the onset of Type Ⅰ flash drought.In contrast,there are larger soil moisture deficits two pentads before the onset of Type Ⅱ flash drought,leading to a decrease in ET and increase in temperature.For flash drought associated with seasonal drought,there is a greater likelihood of occurrence during the onset and recovery phases of seasonal drought,suggesting perfect conditions for flash drought during transition periods.This study provides a basis for the early warning of flash drought by connecting multiscale drought phenomena.展开更多
The 2022 Yangtze mega-flash drought is characterized by strong intensity and rapid development both in time and space,accompanied by a persistent anticyclonic circulation anomaly.However,the causes of the extreme even...The 2022 Yangtze mega-flash drought is characterized by strong intensity and rapid development both in time and space,accompanied by a persistent anticyclonic circulation anomaly.However,the causes of the extreme event remain elusive given the multiscale nature of drought.Here we presented a brief overview for the oceanic and terrestrial causes of the megaflash drought during the summer of 2022,and estimated the risk in a changing climate.Using the soil moisture percentile as the drought index,it was found that the drought expanded to the entire Yangtze River basin within two months,with 80%of basin under severe drought conditions at the end of August.Both the intensity and onset speed of the 2022 mega-flash drought were ranked as the first during the past 62 years,with return periods of 86 and 259 years,respectively.The results of composite analysis showed that the spring La Ni?a can facilitate the abrupt change from a wet/normal condition in May–June to drought in July–August over the Yangtze River basin,which was beneficial for the increase of flash drought intensity and onset speed in2022.The analysis through the linear regression also indicated that the unprecedented intensity was associated with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.Quantified by a coupling strength index for soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit,it was found that there was a strong land-atmosphere coupling over the Yangtze River basin during July–August 2022.The attribution by using CMIP6 climate models suggested that land-atmosphere coupling increased the risks of flash drought intensity and onset speed like 2022 by 61%±6%and 64%±7%under natural climate forcings,and the synergy of coupling and anthropogenic climate change would increase the risks by 75%±22%and 85%±12%.Our findings emphasized the role of landatmosphere coupling combined with anthropogenic climate change in intensifying flash droughts.展开更多
In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to be...In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases. However, despite this trend, changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region, whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons. Using hourly and daily gauge observations, rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are exalnined for a network of 142 locations in the region. From the analysis, dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [-2.4% （10 yr）^-1], particularly during the past 15 years [-17.7% （10 yr）^-1]. However, the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4% （10 yr）^-1], tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding. If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate, it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42477481,42477483)the Science and Technology Program in Gansu Province(23JRRA599)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)"Light of West China"Program.
文摘Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture,water resources,ecosystems,and human environment.In the Qilian Mountains,northwestern China,flash droughts are becoming more frequently due to the global climate warming.However,the spatiotemporal variations and their driving factors of flash droughts are not clear in this region.In this study,the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5-Land(ERA5-Land)dataset was utilized to identify two types of flash drought events(heatwave-induced and water scarcity-induced flash drought events)that occurred in the growing season(April‒September)during 1981-2020 in this area.The results showed that the frequency of heatwave-induced flash droughts has decreased since 2010,while the frequency of water scarcity-induced flash droughts has declined markedly.Spatially,heatwave-induced flash droughts were predominantly concentrated in the western Qilian Mountains,whereas water scarcity-induced flash droughts were primarily concentrated in the central and eastern Qilian Mountains.A significantly increasing temporal trend in both types of flash droughts in the eastern Qilian Mountains was found.Meanwhile,there was a decreasing temporal trend of heatwave-induced flash droughts in the southwestern part of the region.Additionally,the influence of two major atmospheric modes,i.e.,the El Niño‒Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),on these two types of flash droughts was explored by the Superposed Epoch Analysis.The ENSO mainly influences flash droughts in the central and eastern parts of the Qilian Mountains by altering the strength of the East Asian monsoon,while the NAO mainly affects flash droughts in the entire parts of the Qilian Mountains by inducing anomalous westerlies activity.Our findings have important implications for predicting the evolution of flash drought events in the Qilian Mountains region under continued climate warming.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41875105]the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2018YFA0606002]the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province for Distinguished Young Scholars[grant number BK20211540]。
文摘The frequent and rapid onset of flash drought poses a serious threat to agriculture and ecosystems.Detecting human influences on flash droughts and estimating their future risks under climate change have attracted great attention.Focusing on a record-breaking flash drought event in the southeastern coastal region of China in summer 2020,the authors found that the suppression of convective precipitation and high temperature caused by the persistent high geopotential height anomalies and land-atmosphere dry coupling were important reasons for the rapid onset and strong intensity of the flash drought.Event attribution analysis with the latest CMIP6 data showed that anthropogenic climate change has not only increased the likelihood of an onset speed and intensity like those of the 2020 flash drought event,by about 93%±20%and 18%±15%,respectively,but also increased the chance of their simultaneous occurrence,by about 86%±38%,according to their joint probability distribution.Under a business-as-usual future scenario(SSP2-4.5),the likelihood of such an onset speed,intensity,and their simultaneous occurrence will further increase,by 85%±33%,49%±8%,and 81%±48%,respectively,as compared with current climate conditions.This study highlights the importance of anthropogenic climate change for accelerating and intensifying flash drought in the southeastern coastal region of China.
基金supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science through the NERC National Capability International Programmes Award (NE/ X006263/1)the Global Challenges Research Fund, via Atmospheric hazard in developing Countries: Risk assessment and Early Warning (ACREW) (NE/R000034/1)the Natural Environmental Research Council and the Department for Foreign International Development through the Sat WIN-ALERT project (NE/ R014116/1)。
文摘Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606002)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91547103)+1 种基金the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201506001)the General Financial Grant from the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2018M631553)
文摘Flash drought is a rapidly intensifying drought with abnormally high temperature,which has greatly threatened crop yields and water supply,and aroused wide public concern in a warming climate.However,the preferable hydrometeorological conditions for flash drought and its association with conventional drought at longer time scales remain unclear.Here,we investigate two types of flash drought over China:one is high-temperature driven(Type Ⅰ),while the other is water-deficit driven(Type Ⅱ).Results show that the frequencies of the two types of flash drought averaged over China during the growing season are comparable.Type I flash drought tends to occur over southern China,where moisture supply is sufficient,while Type Ⅱ is more likely to occur over semi-arid regions such as northern China.Both types of flash drought increase significantly(p<0.01)during 1979–2010,with a doubled rise in Type Ⅰ as compared with Type Ⅱ.Composite analysis shows that high temperature quickly increases evapotranspiration(ET)and reduces soil moisture from two pentads before the onset of Type Ⅰ flash drought.In contrast,there are larger soil moisture deficits two pentads before the onset of Type Ⅱ flash drought,leading to a decrease in ET and increase in temperature.For flash drought associated with seasonal drought,there is a greater likelihood of occurrence during the onset and recovery phases of seasonal drought,suggesting perfect conditions for flash drought during transition periods.This study provides a basis for the early warning of flash drought by connecting multiscale drought phenomena.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42330604)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province for Distinguished Young Scholars(Grant No.BK20211540)。
文摘The 2022 Yangtze mega-flash drought is characterized by strong intensity and rapid development both in time and space,accompanied by a persistent anticyclonic circulation anomaly.However,the causes of the extreme event remain elusive given the multiscale nature of drought.Here we presented a brief overview for the oceanic and terrestrial causes of the megaflash drought during the summer of 2022,and estimated the risk in a changing climate.Using the soil moisture percentile as the drought index,it was found that the drought expanded to the entire Yangtze River basin within two months,with 80%of basin under severe drought conditions at the end of August.Both the intensity and onset speed of the 2022 mega-flash drought were ranked as the first during the past 62 years,with return periods of 86 and 259 years,respectively.The results of composite analysis showed that the spring La Ni?a can facilitate the abrupt change from a wet/normal condition in May–June to drought in July–August over the Yangtze River basin,which was beneficial for the increase of flash drought intensity and onset speed in2022.The analysis through the linear regression also indicated that the unprecedented intensity was associated with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.Quantified by a coupling strength index for soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit,it was found that there was a strong land-atmosphere coupling over the Yangtze River basin during July–August 2022.The attribution by using CMIP6 climate models suggested that land-atmosphere coupling increased the risks of flash drought intensity and onset speed like 2022 by 61%±6%and 64%±7%under natural climate forcings,and the synergy of coupling and anthropogenic climate change would increase the risks by 75%±22%and 85%±12%.Our findings emphasized the role of landatmosphere coupling combined with anthropogenic climate change in intensifying flash droughts.
基金jointly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2016YFE0102400 and 2017YFC1502701)the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
文摘In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases. However, despite this trend, changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region, whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons. Using hourly and daily gauge observations, rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are exalnined for a network of 142 locations in the region. From the analysis, dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [-2.4% （10 yr）^-1], particularly during the past 15 years [-17.7% （10 yr）^-1]. However, the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4% （10 yr）^-1], tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding. If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate, it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned.
