Given the great strides that China＇s education sector has made in recent decades, it can be expected that the overall workforce quality of exiting China＇s labor market in coming one or two decades will be relatively...Given the great strides that China＇s education sector has made in recent decades, it can be expected that the overall workforce quality of exiting China＇s labor market in coming one or two decades will be relatively low, while the overall quality of workforce newly entering into China＇s labor market will be high. As the new, bettereducated generation takes over, China＇s workforce quality will be vastly improved. This in turn will promote economic growth. We refer to economic growth arising from improved workforce quality as qualitative demographic dividend. Using the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model, this paper investigates the relationship between workforce quality improvements and economic growth. According to the model＇s results, an improvement in workforce quality will raise the economic growth rate by about two percentage points per annum between 2016 and 2020 and by 10 percentage points cumulatively by 2020. In other words, GDP will be 1.1 times the level of baseline GDP by 2020 due to the improved education levels. Given different production functions across sectors, the improvement of workforce quality will affect different sectors in different ways. On the whole, the improvement of workforce quality is more favorable to the development of capital-intensive sectors and sectors with rapid technology progress. According to this paper, considering the improvement of workforce quality, we cannot conclude that China＇s potential economic growth rate has already begun to decline. Despite diminishing conventional quantitative demographic dividends, China ＂s qualitative demographic dividends will keep rising. Qualitative demographic dividends will further push forward China＇s industrial restructuring and the strategic transition of industrial competitiveness from quantitative to qualitative and from an extensive to an intensive pattern of development.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to analyze the phenomenon of employment diffi- culty and labor shortage, and to reveal the influencing factors of employment difli- culty and labor shortage. [Method] On the basis of the econom...[Objective] The aim was to analyze the phenomenon of employment diffi- culty and labor shortage, and to reveal the influencing factors of employment difli- culty and labor shortage. [Method] On the basis of the economic principle of popu- lation dividend, the use of human resources and natural resource constraints The IS-LM model describes these two states. [Results] The resource constraints have a ＂squeeze＂ effect on the demographic dividend, and employment pressure is shown in terms of the population opportunity window; the labor market segmentation, the ir- rational industrial structure, the backward curriculum and employment concept are the main factors affecting employment and labor shortage. [Conclusion] The way to solve this dilemma must be removed from the division of labor market, the adjust- ment of industrial structure, the setting of university specialty, the change of em- ployment concept of university graduates as well as the improvement of the quality of labor.展开更多
Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during t...Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.展开更多
This paper presents a review of the demographic dividend in China’s economic growth or the contribution of the demographic factor to China’s rapid economic growth over the past 30 years. Based on this review, it exp...This paper presents a review of the demographic dividend in China’s economic growth or the contribution of the demographic factor to China’s rapid economic growth over the past 30 years. Based on this review, it explores how China has sustained high-speed economic growth in the midst of a slowdown in working age population growth, surplus labor depletion and population aging. This study intends to demonstrate that the second demographic dividend may still arise after the decline and even disappearance of the first demographic dividend to avoid demographic debt by boosting labor productivity through the furtherance of education, extending the competitive advantage of China’s industry, tapping new sources of savings through institutional arrangements of pension security, and expanding labor resource and human capital stock in the aging era through the institutional arrangements in the labor market.展开更多
The demographic dividend refers to the process of transforming population advantages into economic ones to achieve rapid growth. The opening and acquisition of a demographic window of opportunity requires correspondin...The demographic dividend refers to the process of transforming population advantages into economic ones to achieve rapid growth. The opening and acquisition of a demographic window of opportunity requires corresponding institutional guarantees. Thanks to reform and opening-up, China has opened and reaped its first demographic window of opportunity. As China enters the critical stage of reform and upgrades for economic development, population advantages have been shifting from quantity to quality on a solid basis, marking the opening of our second demographic window of opportunity. Establishing and implementing compatible social and economic policies will be helpful to maximize advantages of this demographic “gift” and modernize China’s economic system.展开更多
China is faced with a decreasing labor supply and therefore is losing its cost advantage.However,benefiting from continuous improvement of population quality,China's population quality-based demographic dividend b...China is faced with a decreasing labor supply and therefore is losing its cost advantage.However,benefiting from continuous improvement of population quality,China's population quality-based demographic dividend begins to replace the quantity-based dividend to play a dominant role in economic development.Thus,in supply-side structure,rather than essential factors,it paves the way for the sustainable development of the Chinese economy.With the addition of the successful industrial transformation and upgrading,China still has the advantage to overcome the middle income trap and maintain the momentum of economic growth.展开更多
THE history of all developed economies and even the emerging ones have been their abilities to harness human resource into capital and use its diverse multiplier effects to create value chains spanning all other resou...THE history of all developed economies and even the emerging ones have been their abilities to harness human resource into capital and use its diverse multiplier effects to create value chains spanning all other resources categories. In addition, this process unleashes outcomes that include a rise in national economic aggregates and more importantly, improved quality of living standards for citizens.展开更多
The relation between economic growth and population growth is a widely debated topic in economics.The discussioncircles around three main views about demography;(i) Population Neutralism,(ii) Demographic Dividends,and...The relation between economic growth and population growth is a widely debated topic in economics.The discussioncircles around three main views about demography;(i) Population Neutralism,(ii) Demographic Dividends,and (iii)Demographic Traps.This paper provides a quantitative definition of the demographic trap based on the theoreticaldemographic distribution curve.We then compare the results of the world’s two most populous countries,China and India.The results show that India may fall into a demographic trap while China will not and,hence these two countries exhibittwo distinctly opposite demographic characteristics.Extending the results to include examination of a set of rich and poorcountries,we conclude that there is no evidence of a demographic trap in the U.S.and Canada,while it is highly possiblethat Algeria and Angola will get caught in one.展开更多
Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions ...Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration;and 3） analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey.Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.展开更多
As China’s demographic transition enters a new stage,the“first demographic dividend”-the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades-is bound to disappear permanently.China s future deve...As China’s demographic transition enters a new stage,the“first demographic dividend”-the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades-is bound to disappear permanently.China s future development will be characterized by an aging population.The“second demographic dividend”refers to new sources of economic growth derived from this later population change.This paper reveals major constraints caused by aging in China,which is characterized by a tendency to grow old before becoming rich.As the population ages,human capital improvement slows,labor force participation declines and consumption power reduces.This paper suggests taking advantage of a population“echo effect”to improve human capital at all ages,to enhance workers’ability to benefit from employment,and to improve the labor participation rate of the elderly,which in turn would increase the income and social security of the aged.These measures are conducive tofuture economic growth and to the cultivation of the second demographic dividend.展开更多
文摘Given the great strides that China＇s education sector has made in recent decades, it can be expected that the overall workforce quality of exiting China＇s labor market in coming one or two decades will be relatively low, while the overall quality of workforce newly entering into China＇s labor market will be high. As the new, bettereducated generation takes over, China＇s workforce quality will be vastly improved. This in turn will promote economic growth. We refer to economic growth arising from improved workforce quality as qualitative demographic dividend. Using the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model, this paper investigates the relationship between workforce quality improvements and economic growth. According to the model＇s results, an improvement in workforce quality will raise the economic growth rate by about two percentage points per annum between 2016 and 2020 and by 10 percentage points cumulatively by 2020. In other words, GDP will be 1.1 times the level of baseline GDP by 2020 due to the improved education levels. Given different production functions across sectors, the improvement of workforce quality will affect different sectors in different ways. On the whole, the improvement of workforce quality is more favorable to the development of capital-intensive sectors and sectors with rapid technology progress. According to this paper, considering the improvement of workforce quality, we cannot conclude that China＇s potential economic growth rate has already begun to decline. Despite diminishing conventional quantitative demographic dividends, China ＂s qualitative demographic dividends will keep rising. Qualitative demographic dividends will further push forward China＇s industrial restructuring and the strategic transition of industrial competitiveness from quantitative to qualitative and from an extensive to an intensive pattern of development.
基金Supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(13XSH017)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to analyze the phenomenon of employment diffi- culty and labor shortage, and to reveal the influencing factors of employment difli- culty and labor shortage. [Method] On the basis of the economic principle of popu- lation dividend, the use of human resources and natural resource constraints The IS-LM model describes these two states. [Results] The resource constraints have a ＂squeeze＂ effect on the demographic dividend, and employment pressure is shown in terms of the population opportunity window; the labor market segmentation, the ir- rational industrial structure, the backward curriculum and employment concept are the main factors affecting employment and labor shortage. [Conclusion] The way to solve this dilemma must be removed from the division of labor market, the adjust- ment of industrial structure, the setting of university specialty, the change of em- ployment concept of university graduates as well as the improvement of the quality of labor.
基金the National Social Sciences Foundation Program "A Study on the Effects of Changing Demographic Structure on China's Economic Deceleration and Countermeasures"
文摘Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.
文摘This paper presents a review of the demographic dividend in China’s economic growth or the contribution of the demographic factor to China’s rapid economic growth over the past 30 years. Based on this review, it explores how China has sustained high-speed economic growth in the midst of a slowdown in working age population growth, surplus labor depletion and population aging. This study intends to demonstrate that the second demographic dividend may still arise after the decline and even disappearance of the first demographic dividend to avoid demographic debt by boosting labor productivity through the furtherance of education, extending the competitive advantage of China’s industry, tapping new sources of savings through institutional arrangements of pension security, and expanding labor resource and human capital stock in the aging era through the institutional arrangements in the labor market.
基金“Study on the Impact of Ageing Population on China’s Economy and Countermeasures” Program(No.13JZD005),a key philosophy and social sciences research subject funded by the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China
文摘The demographic dividend refers to the process of transforming population advantages into economic ones to achieve rapid growth. The opening and acquisition of a demographic window of opportunity requires corresponding institutional guarantees. Thanks to reform and opening-up, China has opened and reaped its first demographic window of opportunity. As China enters the critical stage of reform and upgrades for economic development, population advantages have been shifting from quantity to quality on a solid basis, marking the opening of our second demographic window of opportunity. Establishing and implementing compatible social and economic policies will be helpful to maximize advantages of this demographic “gift” and modernize China’s economic system.
文摘China is faced with a decreasing labor supply and therefore is losing its cost advantage.However,benefiting from continuous improvement of population quality,China's population quality-based demographic dividend begins to replace the quantity-based dividend to play a dominant role in economic development.Thus,in supply-side structure,rather than essential factors,it paves the way for the sustainable development of the Chinese economy.With the addition of the successful industrial transformation and upgrading,China still has the advantage to overcome the middle income trap and maintain the momentum of economic growth.
文摘THE history of all developed economies and even the emerging ones have been their abilities to harness human resource into capital and use its diverse multiplier effects to create value chains spanning all other resources categories. In addition, this process unleashes outcomes that include a rise in national economic aggregates and more importantly, improved quality of living standards for citizens.
文摘The relation between economic growth and population growth is a widely debated topic in economics.The discussioncircles around three main views about demography;(i) Population Neutralism,(ii) Demographic Dividends,and (iii)Demographic Traps.This paper provides a quantitative definition of the demographic trap based on the theoreticaldemographic distribution curve.We then compare the results of the world’s two most populous countries,China and India.The results show that India may fall into a demographic trap while China will not and,hence these two countries exhibittwo distinctly opposite demographic characteristics.Extending the results to include examination of a set of rich and poorcountries,we conclude that there is no evidence of a demographic trap in the U.S.and Canada,while it is highly possiblethat Algeria and Angola will get caught in one.
文摘Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration;and 3） analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey.Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.
文摘As China’s demographic transition enters a new stage,the“first demographic dividend”-the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades-is bound to disappear permanently.China s future development will be characterized by an aging population.The“second demographic dividend”refers to new sources of economic growth derived from this later population change.This paper reveals major constraints caused by aging in China,which is characterized by a tendency to grow old before becoming rich.As the population ages,human capital improvement slows,labor force participation declines and consumption power reduces.This paper suggests taking advantage of a population“echo effect”to improve human capital at all ages,to enhance workers’ability to benefit from employment,and to improve the labor participation rate of the elderly,which in turn would increase the income and social security of the aged.These measures are conducive tofuture economic growth and to the cultivation of the second demographic dividend.
