A method to predict near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active faults is proposed. First, macro-source parameters characterizing the entire source area, i.e., global source parameters, includi...A method to predict near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active faults is proposed. First, macro-source parameters characterizing the entire source area, i.e., global source parameters, including fault length, fault width, rupture area, average slip on the fault plane, etc., are estimated by seismogeology survey, seismicity and seismic scaling laws. Second, slip distributions characterizing heterogeneity or roughness on the fault plane, i.e., local source parameters, are reproduced/evaluated by the hybrid slip model. Finally, the finite fault source model, developed from both the global and local source parameters, is combined with the stochastically synthetic technique of ground motion using the dynamic comer frequency based on seismology. The proposed method is applied to simulate the acceleration time histories on three base-rock stations during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Comparisons between the predicted and recorded acceleration time histories show that the method is feasible and practicable.展开更多
The occurrence of the historical and machine Earthquakes, near to the North Tabriz Fault in NW Iran is an evidence for the seismic activity of this fault, which records a historical earthquake with a magnitude more th...The occurrence of the historical and machine Earthquakes, near to the North Tabriz Fault in NW Iran is an evidence for the seismic activity of this fault, which records a historical earthquake with a magnitude more than 7. Using the existing experimental relations, seismicity, and the fault geometry, a Mw 7.7 earthquake scenario was defined. The stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency shows good agreement with common attenuation patterns. The shake map illustrates that Baghmisheh, Roshtieh, Ellahieh, Valiamr, and Eram region on Tabriz are at high hazard areas, and the maximum acceleration is located at the north direction with the same azimuth similar to fault strike.展开更多
In recent times,the impact of typhoon disasters on integrated energy active distribution networks(IEADNs)has received increasing attention,particularly,in terms of effective cascading fault path prediction and enhance...In recent times,the impact of typhoon disasters on integrated energy active distribution networks(IEADNs)has received increasing attention,particularly,in terms of effective cascading fault path prediction and enhanced fault recovery performance.In this study,we propose a modified ORNL-PSerc-Alaska(OPA)model based on optimal power flow(OPF)calculation to forecast IEADN cascading fault paths.We first established the topology and operational model of the IEADNs,and the typical fault scenario was chosen according to the component fault probability and information entropy.The modified OPA model consisted of two layers:An upper-layer model to determine the cascading fault location and a lower-layer model to calculate the OPF by using Yalmip and CPLEX and provide the data to update the upper-layer model.The approach was validated via the modified IEEE 33-node distribution system and two real IEADNs.Simulation results showed that the fault trend forecasted by the novel OPA model corresponded well with the development and movement of the typhoon above the IEADN.The proposed model also increased the load recovery rate by>24%compared to the traditional OPA model.展开更多
Ujsing deterministic methods in combination with probabilistic methods,the authors havestudied in detail the seismogeological background,seismogfnic faults and their abilities ingenerating earthquakes,the temporal and...Ujsing deterministic methods in combination with probabilistic methods,the authors havestudied in detail the seismogeological background,seismogfnic faults and their abilities ingenerating earthquakes,the temporal and spatial distribution features of seismicity;predicted the seismicity tendency in future 50 years;and studied the expected magnitude andexpected distance of destructive earthquakes that may attack Zigong City.On such a basis,2scenario earthquakes have been determined for Zigong City.The results would be helphl forthe lecal government and authorities to work out a great earthquake emergency pre-plan andto estaplish the great earthquake fast-response system.展开更多
Permanent faults in medium-voltage cable joints significantly impact the reliability of distribution networks.Radial breakdowns caused by water ingress often lead to several self-extinguishing arc discharges—referred...Permanent faults in medium-voltage cable joints significantly impact the reliability of distribution networks.Radial breakdowns caused by water ingress often lead to several self-extinguishing arc discharges—referred to as incipient faults—before developing into permanent faults.Effective monitoring of incipient faults can help reduce outage costs associated with permanent faults.However,the specific fault scenarios of incipient faults remain insufficiently understood.To address this gap,this study designed a simulation experiment replicating incipient fault conditions in medium-voltage cable joints under humid environments,based on actual operating scenarios.The experiment compared the insulation strength required to trigger incipient faults and examined both non-electrical fault characteristics,such as insulation damage and arc flame intensity,and electrical characteristics,such as fault current and impedance.Experimental observations show that,in cable joints,gaps without accumulated water retain sufficient insulation strength to prevent breakdown.However,the infiltration of accumulated water shortens the effective insulation path,thereby lowering the breakdown threshold.The peak current of an incipient fault can range from hundreds to thousands of amperes,with a duration of approximately 1/8 to 1/4 of a power–frequency cycle.During incipient faults,arc burning on the pore wall leaves conductive traces,which progressively reduce the insulation strength of the surrounding environment.As these traces accumulate over multiple events,the likelihood of breakdown increases,ultimately resulting in a permanent fault.Permanent faults are characterized by intense,sustained arc discharges that persist over a macroscopic time scale and exhibit flat-shoulder waveforms within individual cycles,with discharge intensity increasing progressively over time.展开更多
基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation UnderGrant No. 2005037650 Heilongjiang Province PostdoctoralScience Foundation China EarthquakeAdministration’s Tenth"Five Year Plans" Project
文摘A method to predict near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active faults is proposed. First, macro-source parameters characterizing the entire source area, i.e., global source parameters, including fault length, fault width, rupture area, average slip on the fault plane, etc., are estimated by seismogeology survey, seismicity and seismic scaling laws. Second, slip distributions characterizing heterogeneity or roughness on the fault plane, i.e., local source parameters, are reproduced/evaluated by the hybrid slip model. Finally, the finite fault source model, developed from both the global and local source parameters, is combined with the stochastically synthetic technique of ground motion using the dynamic comer frequency based on seismology. The proposed method is applied to simulate the acceleration time histories on three base-rock stations during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Comparisons between the predicted and recorded acceleration time histories show that the method is feasible and practicable.
文摘The occurrence of the historical and machine Earthquakes, near to the North Tabriz Fault in NW Iran is an evidence for the seismic activity of this fault, which records a historical earthquake with a magnitude more than 7. Using the existing experimental relations, seismicity, and the fault geometry, a Mw 7.7 earthquake scenario was defined. The stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency shows good agreement with common attenuation patterns. The shake map illustrates that Baghmisheh, Roshtieh, Ellahieh, Valiamr, and Eram region on Tabriz are at high hazard areas, and the maximum acceleration is located at the north direction with the same azimuth similar to fault strike.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Co.,Ltd.under Grant GDKJXM20222357.
文摘In recent times,the impact of typhoon disasters on integrated energy active distribution networks(IEADNs)has received increasing attention,particularly,in terms of effective cascading fault path prediction and enhanced fault recovery performance.In this study,we propose a modified ORNL-PSerc-Alaska(OPA)model based on optimal power flow(OPF)calculation to forecast IEADN cascading fault paths.We first established the topology and operational model of the IEADNs,and the typical fault scenario was chosen according to the component fault probability and information entropy.The modified OPA model consisted of two layers:An upper-layer model to determine the cascading fault location and a lower-layer model to calculate the OPF by using Yalmip and CPLEX and provide the data to update the upper-layer model.The approach was validated via the modified IEEE 33-node distribution system and two real IEADNs.Simulation results showed that the fault trend forecasted by the novel OPA model corresponded well with the development and movement of the typhoon above the IEADN.The proposed model also increased the load recovery rate by>24%compared to the traditional OPA model.
基金This project was sponsored by China Seismological Bureau(95-06-02-04-02)
文摘Ujsing deterministic methods in combination with probabilistic methods,the authors havestudied in detail the seismogeological background,seismogfnic faults and their abilities ingenerating earthquakes,the temporal and spatial distribution features of seismicity;predicted the seismicity tendency in future 50 years;and studied the expected magnitude andexpected distance of destructive earthquakes that may attack Zigong City.On such a basis,2scenario earthquakes have been determined for Zigong City.The results would be helphl forthe lecal government and authorities to work out a great earthquake emergency pre-plan andto estaplish the great earthquake fast-response system.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52077133).
文摘Permanent faults in medium-voltage cable joints significantly impact the reliability of distribution networks.Radial breakdowns caused by water ingress often lead to several self-extinguishing arc discharges—referred to as incipient faults—before developing into permanent faults.Effective monitoring of incipient faults can help reduce outage costs associated with permanent faults.However,the specific fault scenarios of incipient faults remain insufficiently understood.To address this gap,this study designed a simulation experiment replicating incipient fault conditions in medium-voltage cable joints under humid environments,based on actual operating scenarios.The experiment compared the insulation strength required to trigger incipient faults and examined both non-electrical fault characteristics,such as insulation damage and arc flame intensity,and electrical characteristics,such as fault current and impedance.Experimental observations show that,in cable joints,gaps without accumulated water retain sufficient insulation strength to prevent breakdown.However,the infiltration of accumulated water shortens the effective insulation path,thereby lowering the breakdown threshold.The peak current of an incipient fault can range from hundreds to thousands of amperes,with a duration of approximately 1/8 to 1/4 of a power–frequency cycle.During incipient faults,arc burning on the pore wall leaves conductive traces,which progressively reduce the insulation strength of the surrounding environment.As these traces accumulate over multiple events,the likelihood of breakdown increases,ultimately resulting in a permanent fault.Permanent faults are characterized by intense,sustained arc discharges that persist over a macroscopic time scale and exhibit flat-shoulder waveforms within individual cycles,with discharge intensity increasing progressively over time.
