Multiple failuremodes and strength degradation are usually inherent in the gear transmission system,which brings new challenges for conducting fatigue reliability analysis and design.This paper proposes a novel dynami...Multiple failuremodes and strength degradation are usually inherent in the gear transmission system,which brings new challenges for conducting fatigue reliability analysis and design.This paper proposes a novel dynamic fatigue reliability analysis method for failure dependence and strength degradation based on the combination of theCopula function and Gamma process.Firstly,the dynamic simulation model of the gear transmission system is established to obtain the dynamic stress-time history.The Gamma process is then used to describe the strength degradation to establish the dynamic stress-strength interference model.The marginal distribution functions of tooth contact fatigue and dedendumbending fatigue are calculated respectively based on the dynamic interferencemodel.Finally,the joint distribution of the two failure modes can be obtained by the t-Copula function to characterize the failure dependence,and so the dynamic fatigue reliability considering failure dependence can be estimated.The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated with examples.The results reveal the temporal law of reliability and the effects of failure dependence on dynamic fatigue reliability.展开更多
The reliability assessment problem for products subject to degradation and random shocks is investigated. Two kinds of probabilistic models are constructed, in which the dependent competing failure process is consider...The reliability assessment problem for products subject to degradation and random shocks is investigated. Two kinds of probabilistic models are constructed, in which the dependent competing failure process is considered. First, based on the assumption of cumulative shock, the probabilistic models for hard failure and soft failure are built respectively. On this basis, the dependent competing failure model involving degradation and shock processes is established. Furthermore, the situation of the shifting-threshold is also considered, in which the hard failure threshold value decreases to a lower level after the arrival of a certain number of shocks. A case study of fatigue crack growth is given to illustrate the proposed models. Numerical results show that shock has a significant effect on the failure process; meanwhile, the effect will be magnified when the value of the hard threshold shifts to a lower level.展开更多
In this paper, a new method is developed to model dependent failure behavior among failure mechanisms. Unlike the existing methods, the developed method models the root cause of the dependency explicitly, so that a de...In this paper, a new method is developed to model dependent failure behavior among failure mechanisms. Unlike the existing methods, the developed method models the root cause of the dependency explicitly, so that a deterministic model, rather than a probabilistic one, can be established. Three steps comprise the developed method. First, physics-of-failure（PoF） models are utilized to model each failure mechanism. Then, interactions among failure mechanisms are modeled as a combination of three basic relations, competition, superposition and coupling. This is the reason why the method is referred to as ＂compositional method＂. Finally, the PoF models and the interaction model are combined to develop a deterministic model of the dependent failure behavior. As a demonstration, the method is applied on an actual spool and the developed failure behavior model is validated by a wear test. The result demonstrates that the compositional method is an effective way to model dependent failure behavior.展开更多
Degradation and overstress failures occur in many electronic systems in which the operation load and environmental conditions are complex.The dependency of them called dependent competing failure process(DCFP),has bee...Degradation and overstress failures occur in many electronic systems in which the operation load and environmental conditions are complex.The dependency of them called dependent competing failure process(DCFP),has been widely studied.Electronic system may experience mutual effects of degradation and shocks,they are considered to be interdependent.Both the degradation and the shock processes will decrease the limit of system and cause cumulative effect.Finally,the competition of hard and soft failure will cause the system failure.Based on the failure mechanism accumulation theory,this paper constructs the shock-degradation acceleration and the threshold descent model,and a system reliability model established by using these two models.The mutually DCFP effect of electronic system interaction has been decomposed into physical correlation of failure,including acceleration,accumulation and competition.As a case,a reliability of electronic system in aeronautical system has been analyzed with the proposed method.The method proposed is based on failure physical evaluation,and could provide important reference for quantitative evaluation and design improvement of the newly designed system in case of data deficiency.展开更多
Most reliability studies assume large samples or independence among components,but these assump-tions often fail in practice,leading to imprecise inference.We address this issue by constructing confidence intervals(CI...Most reliability studies assume large samples or independence among components,but these assump-tions often fail in practice,leading to imprecise inference.We address this issue by constructing confidence intervals(CIs)for the reliability of two-component systems with Weibull distributed failure times under a copula-frailty framework.Our construction integrates gamma-distributed frailties to capture unobserved heterogeneity and a copula-based dependence structure for correlated failures.The main contribution of this work is to derive adjusted CIs that explicitly incorporate the copula parameter in the variance-covariance matrix,achieving near-nominal coverage probabilities even in small samples or highly dependent settings.Through simulation studies,we show that,although traditional methods may suffice with moderate dependence and large samples,the proposed CIs offer notable benefits when dependence is strong or data are sparse.We further illustrate our construction with a synthetic example illustrating how penalized estimation can mitigate the issue of a degenerate Hessian matrix under high dependence and limited observations,so enabling uncertainty quantification despite deviations from nominal assumptions.Overall,our results fill a gap in reliability modeling for systems prone to correlated failures,and contribute to more robust inference in engineering,industrial,and biomedical applications.展开更多
Recently, the physics-of-failure(PoF) method has been more and more popular in engineering to understand the failure mechanisms(FMs) of products.However, due to the lack of system modeling methods and problem-solving ...Recently, the physics-of-failure(PoF) method has been more and more popular in engineering to understand the failure mechanisms(FMs) of products.However, due to the lack of system modeling methods and problem-solving algorithms,the information of FMs cannot be used to evaluate system reliability.This paper presents a system reliability evaluation method with failure mechanism tree(FMT) considering physical dependency(PDEP) such as competition, trigger, acceleration, inhibition, damage accumulation, and parameter combination.And the binary decision diagram(BDD) analytical algorithm is developed to establish a system reliability model.The operation rules of ite operators for generating BDD are discussed.The flow chart of system reliability evaluation method based on FMT and BDD is proposed.The proposed method is applied in the case of an electronic controller drive unit.Results show that the method is effective to evaluate system reliability from the perspective of FM.展开更多
A series-parallel system was proposed with common bus performance sharing in which the performance and failure rate of the element depended on the load it was carrying. In such a system,the surplus performance of a su...A series-parallel system was proposed with common bus performance sharing in which the performance and failure rate of the element depended on the load it was carrying. In such a system,the surplus performance of a sub-system can be transmitted to other deficient sub-systems. The transmission capacity of the common bus performance sharing mechanism is a random variable. Effects of load on element performance and failure rate were considered in this paper. A reliability evaluation algorithm based on the universal generating function technique was suggested. Numerical experiments were conducted to illustrate the algorithm.展开更多
The generating function approach is an important tool for performance assessment in multi-state systems.Aiming at strength reliability analysis of structural systems,generating function approach is introduced and deve...The generating function approach is an important tool for performance assessment in multi-state systems.Aiming at strength reliability analysis of structural systems,generating function approach is introduced and developed.Static reliability models of statically determinate,indeterminate systems and fatigue reliability models are built by constructing special generating functions,which are used to describe probability distributions of strength(resistance),stress(load)and fatigue life,by defining composite operators of generating functions and performance structure functions thereof.When composition operators are executed,computational costs can be reduced by a big margin by means of collecting like terms.The results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the generating function approach can be widely used for probability modeling of large complex systems with hierarchical structures due to the unified form,compact expression,computer program realizability and high universality.Because the new method considers twin loads giving rise to component failure dependency,it can provide a theoretical reference and act as a powerful tool for static,dynamic reliability analysis in civil engineering structures and mechanical equipment systems with multi-mode damage coupling.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Contract No.51875073the Scientific Research Project of Education Department of Liaoning Province under Contract No.JDL2019005+1 种基金the Dalian Science and Technology Innovation Fund Plan under Contract No.2019J11CY017the Innovation Team Support Plan of Liaoning Higher Education under Contract No.LT2016010.
文摘Multiple failuremodes and strength degradation are usually inherent in the gear transmission system,which brings new challenges for conducting fatigue reliability analysis and design.This paper proposes a novel dynamic fatigue reliability analysis method for failure dependence and strength degradation based on the combination of theCopula function and Gamma process.Firstly,the dynamic simulation model of the gear transmission system is established to obtain the dynamic stress-time history.The Gamma process is then used to describe the strength degradation to establish the dynamic stress-strength interference model.The marginal distribution functions of tooth contact fatigue and dedendumbending fatigue are calculated respectively based on the dynamic interferencemodel.Finally,the joint distribution of the two failure modes can be obtained by the t-Copula function to characterize the failure dependence,and so the dynamic fatigue reliability considering failure dependence can be estimated.The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated with examples.The results reveal the temporal law of reliability and the effects of failure dependence on dynamic fatigue reliability.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50405021)Graduate Training Innovative Projects Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.CXLX12_0081)
文摘The reliability assessment problem for products subject to degradation and random shocks is investigated. Two kinds of probabilistic models are constructed, in which the dependent competing failure process is considered. First, based on the assumption of cumulative shock, the probabilistic models for hard failure and soft failure are built respectively. On this basis, the dependent competing failure model involving degradation and shock processes is established. Furthermore, the situation of the shifting-threshold is also considered, in which the hard failure threshold value decreases to a lower level after the arrival of a certain number of shocks. A case study of fatigue crack growth is given to illustrate the proposed models. Numerical results show that shock has a significant effect on the failure process; meanwhile, the effect will be magnified when the value of the hard threshold shifts to a lower level.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71671009)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61573043)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51675025)
文摘In this paper, a new method is developed to model dependent failure behavior among failure mechanisms. Unlike the existing methods, the developed method models the root cause of the dependency explicitly, so that a deterministic model, rather than a probabilistic one, can be established. Three steps comprise the developed method. First, physics-of-failure（PoF） models are utilized to model each failure mechanism. Then, interactions among failure mechanisms are modeled as a combination of three basic relations, competition, superposition and coupling. This is the reason why the method is referred to as ＂compositional method＂. Finally, the PoF models and the interaction model are combined to develop a deterministic model of the dependent failure behavior. As a demonstration, the method is applied on an actual spool and the developed failure behavior model is validated by a wear test. The result demonstrates that the compositional method is an effective way to model dependent failure behavior.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61503014,62073009)。
文摘Degradation and overstress failures occur in many electronic systems in which the operation load and environmental conditions are complex.The dependency of them called dependent competing failure process(DCFP),has been widely studied.Electronic system may experience mutual effects of degradation and shocks,they are considered to be interdependent.Both the degradation and the shock processes will decrease the limit of system and cause cumulative effect.Finally,the competition of hard and soft failure will cause the system failure.Based on the failure mechanism accumulation theory,this paper constructs the shock-degradation acceleration and the threshold descent model,and a system reliability model established by using these two models.The mutually DCFP effect of electronic system interaction has been decomposed into physical correlation of failure,including acceleration,accumulation and competition.As a case,a reliability of electronic system in aeronautical system has been analyzed with the proposed method.The method proposed is based on failure physical evaluation,and could provide important reference for quantitative evaluation and design improvement of the newly designed system in case of data deficiency.
基金supported by the Colombian government through COLCIENCIA scholarships,National Doctoral Program,Call 727 of 2015C.Castro gratefully acknowledges partial financial support from the Centro de Matematica da Universidade do Minho(CMAT/UM),through UID/00013V.Leiva acknowledges funding from the Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo(ANID)of the Chilean Ministry of Science,Technology,Knowledge and Innovation,through FONDECYT project grant 1200525.
文摘Most reliability studies assume large samples or independence among components,but these assump-tions often fail in practice,leading to imprecise inference.We address this issue by constructing confidence intervals(CIs)for the reliability of two-component systems with Weibull distributed failure times under a copula-frailty framework.Our construction integrates gamma-distributed frailties to capture unobserved heterogeneity and a copula-based dependence structure for correlated failures.The main contribution of this work is to derive adjusted CIs that explicitly incorporate the copula parameter in the variance-covariance matrix,achieving near-nominal coverage probabilities even in small samples or highly dependent settings.Through simulation studies,we show that,although traditional methods may suffice with moderate dependence and large samples,the proposed CIs offer notable benefits when dependence is strong or data are sparse.We further illustrate our construction with a synthetic example illustrating how penalized estimation can mitigate the issue of a degenerate Hessian matrix under high dependence and limited observations,so enabling uncertainty quantification despite deviations from nominal assumptions.Overall,our results fill a gap in reliability modeling for systems prone to correlated failures,and contribute to more robust inference in engineering,industrial,and biomedical applications.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (6150301462073009)。
文摘Recently, the physics-of-failure(PoF) method has been more and more popular in engineering to understand the failure mechanisms(FMs) of products.However, due to the lack of system modeling methods and problem-solving algorithms,the information of FMs cannot be used to evaluate system reliability.This paper presents a system reliability evaluation method with failure mechanism tree(FMT) considering physical dependency(PDEP) such as competition, trigger, acceleration, inhibition, damage accumulation, and parameter combination.And the binary decision diagram(BDD) analytical algorithm is developed to establish a system reliability model.The operation rules of ite operators for generating BDD are discussed.The flow chart of system reliability evaluation method based on FMT and BDD is proposed.The proposed method is applied in the case of an electronic controller drive unit.Results show that the method is effective to evaluate system reliability from the perspective of FM.
基金National Natural Science Foundations of China(Nos.71231001,11001005,71301009)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2013M530531)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(Nos.FRF-M P-13-009A,FRF-TP-13-026A)the MOE PhD Supervisor Fund of China(No.20120006110025)
文摘A series-parallel system was proposed with common bus performance sharing in which the performance and failure rate of the element depended on the load it was carrying. In such a system,the surplus performance of a sub-system can be transmitted to other deficient sub-systems. The transmission capacity of the common bus performance sharing mechanism is a random variable. Effects of load on element performance and failure rate were considered in this paper. A reliability evaluation algorithm based on the universal generating function technique was suggested. Numerical experiments were conducted to illustrate the algorithm.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.50805070,50775030)
文摘The generating function approach is an important tool for performance assessment in multi-state systems.Aiming at strength reliability analysis of structural systems,generating function approach is introduced and developed.Static reliability models of statically determinate,indeterminate systems and fatigue reliability models are built by constructing special generating functions,which are used to describe probability distributions of strength(resistance),stress(load)and fatigue life,by defining composite operators of generating functions and performance structure functions thereof.When composition operators are executed,computational costs can be reduced by a big margin by means of collecting like terms.The results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the generating function approach can be widely used for probability modeling of large complex systems with hierarchical structures due to the unified form,compact expression,computer program realizability and high universality.Because the new method considers twin loads giving rise to component failure dependency,it can provide a theoretical reference and act as a powerful tool for static,dynamic reliability analysis in civil engineering structures and mechanical equipment systems with multi-mode damage coupling.
