In recent years,rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on landscape stability.As a typical example of China's rapid urbanization,Hangzhou has also experienced significant landscape changes,which have profoun...In recent years,rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on landscape stability.As a typical example of China's rapid urbanization,Hangzhou has also experienced significant landscape changes,which have profoundly affected its ecological stability.Taking Hangzhou as an example,this study integrates land use change data from 1980 to 2020,combines dynamic simulation and ecological modeling techniques,and carries out a comprehensive analysis of historical trends and future predictions,to provide valuable insights into the complex interactions between urban expansion and landscape stability.The results indicate that:1)between 1980 and2020,Hangzhou experienced a significant increase in construction land at the expense of arable land,leading to a gradual decline in landscape stability,though the downward trend has slowed in recent years.2)The spatial distribution of landscape stability shows clear aggregation patterns,with lower stability concentrated in economically active flatlands and higher stability in the mountainous western regions.3)By 2040,further urban expansion is predicted to occur alongside increased landscape integration,reflecting the positive effects of ecological protection strategies.This study highlights the universal challenges of balancing economic growth with ecological stability in rapidly urbanizing regions.The combination of advanced simulation models and spatiotemporal analysis demonstrates a replicable framework for assessing urban expansion's ecological impacts.These findings underscore the importance of tailoring urban planning and ecological policies to address regional disparities,providing valuable insights for sustainable urban development and landscape management globally.展开更多
The delimitation of urban development boundaries plays an important role in optimizing the nation land space.“Double evaluation”is one of the important means to study and predict the scale of new construction land i...The delimitation of urban development boundaries plays an important role in optimizing the nation land space.“Double evaluation”is one of the important means to study and predict the scale of new construction land in the future and to determine the spatial distribution of urban construction land.This study combines the“double evaluation”with the FLUS(Future Land-Use Simulation)model to study the delimitation of the urban development boundary of Yichang.The results show that:(1)the“double evaluation”method comprehensively considers the carrying capacity of the resource environmental bear and the suitability of urban development;(2)the FLUS model can better couple the“double evaluation”method for Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)suitability evaluation,Land Use/land Cover Change(LUCC)simulation and urban development boundary delineation,and the overall accuracy of the simulation reaches 96%;(3)according to the requirements of relevant national policies,this study divides the urban development boundary of the study area into concentrated construction areas,elastic development areas and special purpose areas.This function-based division can meet the requirements of urban flexible development,ecological protection and urban safety.This research combines the FLUS model,which is widely used in the simulation of LUCC,with the double evaluation method used in China’s new round of land and space planning to obtain the result of the urban development boundary.This result is consistent with the existing plan of the study area.展开更多
Margin rules are very important rules in futures market. This paper provides a new Value-at-Risk （VaR） approach which uses GARCH model to set margin levels. The new approach overcomes the limitation of the hypothesi...Margin rules are very important rules in futures market. This paper provides a new Value-at-Risk （VaR） approach which uses GARCH model to set margin levels. The new approach overcomes the limitation of the hypothesis of normal distribution in traditional methods and improves the estimation precision. We use the data of metal futures in China＇s Shanghai Futures Exchange （SHFE） to have an empirical study.展开更多
There is an urgent and tremendous need for human dis- ease models in drug development in order to improve pre- clinical predictability. In the case of brain disorders drugs have to cross the blood-brain barrier （BBB...There is an urgent and tremendous need for human dis- ease models in drug development in order to improve pre- clinical predictability. In the case of brain disorders drugs have to cross the blood-brain barrier （BBB） to enter the central nervous system （CNS）. It was estimated that more than 95% of the drugs cannot cross the BBB.展开更多
Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present an...Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.展开更多
Protected areas(PA)have proven to be one of the best ways to conserve biodiversity against environmental changes.Amphibians are considered the most threatened group,with habitat loss due to deforestation identified as...Protected areas(PA)have proven to be one of the best ways to conserve biodiversity against environmental changes.Amphibians are considered the most threatened group,with habitat loss due to deforestation identified as their major threat.Here,we assessed for each PA of the American continent:1)amphibian’s occurrence(Global Biodiversity Information Facility(GBIF)vs.International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN)data);2)temperature velocity and estimated the climate residence time,and using the latest models of the land future use;3)we estimated the changes of natural vs.modified cover in three future scenarios.Amphibian occurrence showed differences between databases,while GBIF data shows that 52%of the amphibian species occurring in the continent are in PA,based on IUCN data,85%are protected.Results from climate change show a low pace of climate velocity during the last century that is maintained in the green scenario(SSP126).However,change in temperature increases in rate in the rest of the scenarios,with scenario SSP58 showing the highest velocity of temperature change.Future estimates of residence times in PA show that lower levels as emission scenarios tend to be higher.These results are worrisome since climate lag,specifically temperature increase over the PA will probably affect amphibian communities as shown in previous studies.Changes in climate patterns have a direct—mostly negative—impact on amphibians’ability to disperse and reproduce.The results of land use change were unexpected,since the categories showed minimal changes.However,the data on urbanization changes do not seem to be reflecting the trends of other databases,which may be causing artifacts in the comparisons in the future models of land use.Further research will be necessary to evaluate the extent of similarities and differences in future projections of land use including urbanization and human population between different databases.展开更多
Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-R...Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.展开更多
Historic Background Chinese medicine （CM） has over 2,000 years of history in China and was the only health care system providing care for Chinese prior to the introduction of Western medicine （WM） into China. WM ...Historic Background Chinese medicine （CM） has over 2,000 years of history in China and was the only health care system providing care for Chinese prior to the introduction of Western medicine （WM） into China. WM was slowly introduced into China by missionaries from the middle 17th century to the beginning of the 19th century. By 1840, WM began to take root in China. Western hospitals, clinics, medical schools and nursing schools spread rapidly throughout the country. At that time, with the might and power portrayed by Western countries,展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.LY19C160007)。
文摘In recent years,rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on landscape stability.As a typical example of China's rapid urbanization,Hangzhou has also experienced significant landscape changes,which have profoundly affected its ecological stability.Taking Hangzhou as an example,this study integrates land use change data from 1980 to 2020,combines dynamic simulation and ecological modeling techniques,and carries out a comprehensive analysis of historical trends and future predictions,to provide valuable insights into the complex interactions between urban expansion and landscape stability.The results indicate that:1)between 1980 and2020,Hangzhou experienced a significant increase in construction land at the expense of arable land,leading to a gradual decline in landscape stability,though the downward trend has slowed in recent years.2)The spatial distribution of landscape stability shows clear aggregation patterns,with lower stability concentrated in economically active flatlands and higher stability in the mountainous western regions.3)By 2040,further urban expansion is predicted to occur alongside increased landscape integration,reflecting the positive effects of ecological protection strategies.This study highlights the universal challenges of balancing economic growth with ecological stability in rapidly urbanizing regions.The combination of advanced simulation models and spatiotemporal analysis demonstrates a replicable framework for assessing urban expansion's ecological impacts.These findings underscore the importance of tailoring urban planning and ecological policies to address regional disparities,providing valuable insights for sustainable urban development and landscape management globally.
基金Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(No.2021CFB402)Key Laboratory of National Geographic Census and Monitoring,Ministry of Natural Resources(No.2020NGCMZD03)。
文摘The delimitation of urban development boundaries plays an important role in optimizing the nation land space.“Double evaluation”is one of the important means to study and predict the scale of new construction land in the future and to determine the spatial distribution of urban construction land.This study combines the“double evaluation”with the FLUS(Future Land-Use Simulation)model to study the delimitation of the urban development boundary of Yichang.The results show that:(1)the“double evaluation”method comprehensively considers the carrying capacity of the resource environmental bear and the suitability of urban development;(2)the FLUS model can better couple the“double evaluation”method for Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)suitability evaluation,Land Use/land Cover Change(LUCC)simulation and urban development boundary delineation,and the overall accuracy of the simulation reaches 96%;(3)according to the requirements of relevant national policies,this study divides the urban development boundary of the study area into concentrated construction areas,elastic development areas and special purpose areas.This function-based division can meet the requirements of urban flexible development,ecological protection and urban safety.This research combines the FLUS model,which is widely used in the simulation of LUCC,with the double evaluation method used in China’s new round of land and space planning to obtain the result of the urban development boundary.This result is consistent with the existing plan of the study area.
文摘Margin rules are very important rules in futures market. This paper provides a new Value-at-Risk （VaR） approach which uses GARCH model to set margin levels. The new approach overcomes the limitation of the hypothesis of normal distribution in traditional methods and improves the estimation precision. We use the data of metal futures in China＇s Shanghai Futures Exchange （SHFE） to have an empirical study.
基金supported by the SET foundation(Stiftung zur Forderung der Erforschung von Ersatz-und Erganzungsmethoden zur Einschrankung von Tierversuchen)project 060 to Winfried Neuhaus and Marco Metzger
文摘There is an urgent and tremendous need for human dis- ease models in drug development in order to improve pre- clinical predictability. In the case of brain disorders drugs have to cross the blood-brain barrier （BBB） to enter the central nervous system （CNS）. It was estimated that more than 95% of the drugs cannot cross the BBB.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42276234)National Social Science Foundation Major Project of China(No.23&ZD105)+1 种基金the Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection,Ministry of Natural Resources of China(No.2023CZEPK04)the Science and Technology Major Project of Ningbo(No.2021Z181)。
文摘Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.
基金supported partially by DGAPA/PAPIIT UNAM grant 220321 to LMOO.JAV received support from a DGAPA/PAPIIT UNAM grant(IA206523).
文摘Protected areas(PA)have proven to be one of the best ways to conserve biodiversity against environmental changes.Amphibians are considered the most threatened group,with habitat loss due to deforestation identified as their major threat.Here,we assessed for each PA of the American continent:1)amphibian’s occurrence(Global Biodiversity Information Facility(GBIF)vs.International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN)data);2)temperature velocity and estimated the climate residence time,and using the latest models of the land future use;3)we estimated the changes of natural vs.modified cover in three future scenarios.Amphibian occurrence showed differences between databases,while GBIF data shows that 52%of the amphibian species occurring in the continent are in PA,based on IUCN data,85%are protected.Results from climate change show a low pace of climate velocity during the last century that is maintained in the green scenario(SSP126).However,change in temperature increases in rate in the rest of the scenarios,with scenario SSP58 showing the highest velocity of temperature change.Future estimates of residence times in PA show that lower levels as emission scenarios tend to be higher.These results are worrisome since climate lag,specifically temperature increase over the PA will probably affect amphibian communities as shown in previous studies.Changes in climate patterns have a direct—mostly negative—impact on amphibians’ability to disperse and reproduce.The results of land use change were unexpected,since the categories showed minimal changes.However,the data on urbanization changes do not seem to be reflecting the trends of other databases,which may be causing artifacts in the comparisons in the future models of land use.Further research will be necessary to evaluate the extent of similarities and differences in future projections of land use including urbanization and human population between different databases.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41971219,41571168)Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(No.2020JJ4372)Philosophy and Social Science Fund Project of Hunan Province(No.18ZDB015)。
文摘Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.
文摘Historic Background Chinese medicine （CM） has over 2,000 years of history in China and was the only health care system providing care for Chinese prior to the introduction of Western medicine （WM） into China. WM was slowly introduced into China by missionaries from the middle 17th century to the beginning of the 19th century. By 1840, WM began to take root in China. Western hospitals, clinics, medical schools and nursing schools spread rapidly throughout the country. At that time, with the might and power portrayed by Western countries,
