数值模拟方法在研究长时间的气候变化上扮演着重要角色。一直以来,数值模式模拟年代际气候变化如太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)的位相转换存在巨大挑战。本文利用自然资源部第一海洋研究所研发的地球系统模式(First Institute of Oceanography-...数值模拟方法在研究长时间的气候变化上扮演着重要角色。一直以来,数值模式模拟年代际气候变化如太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)的位相转换存在巨大挑战。本文利用自然资源部第一海洋研究所研发的地球系统模式(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model Version 2,FIO-ESM v2.0)145年(1870–2014年)历史气候模拟试验结果,结合再分析资料和另外两个地球系统模式结果,分析评估了该模式对太平洋年代际振荡的模拟能力。研究发现,FIO-ESM v2.0能够再现历史时期PDO的空间模态分布特征,其PDO指数具有10~30年的周期变化特征,同时于1960年以后能刻画出与再分析数据结果相近的PDO位相转变特征。研究表明,FIO-ESM v2.0能够较为准确地模拟出PDO的位相转变特征。另外,本文还评估了该模式对大气环流模态的模拟能力及其与PDO之间的关系,以及该模式模拟PDO的可能机制。该模式的PDO与大气环流的阿留申低压模态相关。进一步的分析表明,平流作用和热通量是关键年代际海域海温异常振幅的主要因素,而罗斯贝波西传时间则可能是影响PDO位相转变的关键因素。展开更多
Three tiers of experiments in the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP),one of the endorsed model intercomparison projects of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),are implemented ...Three tiers of experiments in the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP),one of the endorsed model intercomparison projects of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),are implemented by the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2(FIO-ESM v2.0),following the GMMIP protocols.Evaluation of global mean surface air temperature from 1870 to 2014 and climatological precipitation(1979–2014)in tier-1 shows that the atmosphere model of FIO-ESM v2.0 can reproduce the basic observed atmospheric features.In tier-2,the internal variability is captured by the coupled model,with the SST restoring to the model climatology plus the observed anomalies in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic.Simulation of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation is significantly improved by the SST restoration in the North Atlantic.In tier-3,five orographic perturbation experiments are conducted covering the period 1979–2014 by modifying the surface elevation or vertical heating in the prescribed region.In particular,the strength of the South Asian summer monsoon is reduced by removing the topography or thermal forcing above 500 m over the Asian continent.Monthly and daily simulated outputs of FIO-ESM v2.0 are provided through the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF)node to contribute to a better understanding of the global monsoon system.展开更多
大西洋经向翻转环流(Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,AMOC)作为全球大洋的极向热量输送带,对大西洋附近区域的天气及全球气候变化都存在至关重要的影响。采用自然资源部第一海洋研究所研发的地球系统模式FIO-ESM v2.0(Fir...大西洋经向翻转环流(Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,AMOC)作为全球大洋的极向热量输送带,对大西洋附近区域的天气及全球气候变化都存在至关重要的影响。采用自然资源部第一海洋研究所研发的地球系统模式FIO-ESM v2.0(First Institute of Oceanography-earth system model version 2.0)分析了1850~2014年AMOC的空间分布特征及时间变化规律,并进一步讨论造成该变化的可能因素。研究结果表明:1850~2014年AMOC最大值出现在40°N、1000 m深度附近,其时间序列总体呈现-0.0791×10^(6)m^(3)/(s·a)的减弱趋势,该期间伴随着Labrador、Irminger海域冬季混合层深度的变浅。通过将模式计算的AMOC强度与RAPID(rapid climate change programme)和OSNAP(overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic program)观测资料进行对比,结合模式间并行比较结果显示该模式能较好地再现观测数据期间的AMOC变化规律。FIO-ESM v2.0模式模拟的AMOC具有55 a左右的年代际周期,Labrador、Irminger海域冬季混合层深度变化揭示的对流变化以及Labrador、GIN海域表层海水密度变化造成的海水下沉对AMOC强度的周期性振荡贡献较明显,其周期性变化与海表盐度(sea surface salinity,SSS)、海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、蒸发与降水的差值、北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic oscillation,NAO)等要素的变化密切相关。展开更多
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the wave energy characteristics of the South China Sea(SCS)for 2015-2100 based on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios denoted SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585,repre...This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the wave energy characteristics of the South China Sea(SCS)for 2015-2100 based on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios denoted SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585,representing the low,medium,high future forcing pathways proposed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).Averages and trends of selected wave energy parameters under the three future scenarios were analyzed and compared.These parameters are recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification(62600-101:2015)and can be accessed for wind waves and swells separately.Results suggest that wind waves are substantial contributors of wave energy in the northern part of the study area,whereas swells are more dominant in the other parts.Water depths have more pronounced impacts on the wave energy directions and the frequency and directional spreads in nearshore regions,especially in the Gulf of Thailand.Wave energy magnitude does not change much under SSP126 across the entire SCS.However,in the northern SCS,it increases under SSP245 and decreases under SSP585;and it increases in the southern SCS and decreases in the Gulf Thailand under both SSP245 and SSP585.At certain locations,trends of the magnitudes of wave energy do not reflect the level of forcing of the scenarios.These abnormalities can be traced to wind speed belts that have similar abnormal trends in the northern part of the study area and in the regions adjacent to the northeastern corner of the study area.展开更多
文摘数值模拟方法在研究长时间的气候变化上扮演着重要角色。一直以来,数值模式模拟年代际气候变化如太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)的位相转换存在巨大挑战。本文利用自然资源部第一海洋研究所研发的地球系统模式(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model Version 2,FIO-ESM v2.0)145年(1870–2014年)历史气候模拟试验结果,结合再分析资料和另外两个地球系统模式结果,分析评估了该模式对太平洋年代际振荡的模拟能力。研究发现,FIO-ESM v2.0能够再现历史时期PDO的空间模态分布特征,其PDO指数具有10~30年的周期变化特征,同时于1960年以后能刻画出与再分析数据结果相近的PDO位相转变特征。研究表明,FIO-ESM v2.0能够较为准确地模拟出PDO的位相转变特征。另外,本文还评估了该模式对大气环流模态的模拟能力及其与PDO之间的关系,以及该模式模拟PDO的可能机制。该模式的PDO与大气环流的阿留申低压模态相关。进一步的分析表明,平流作用和热通量是关键年代际海域海温异常振幅的主要因素,而罗斯贝波西传时间则可能是影响PDO位相转变的关键因素。
基金This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1404004)the Project of Indo-Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Air-sea Interactions(Grant No.GASIIPOVAI-06)+5 种基金the Basic Scientific Fund of the National Public Research Institute of China(Grant No.2019S06)Ying BAO was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0602200)Zhenya SONG was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41821004)the Basic Scientific Fund of the National Public Research Institute of China(Grant No.2016S03)the China–Korea Cooperation Project on Northwestern Pacific Climate Change and its PredictionAll numerical experiments were carried out at the Beijing Super Cloud Computing Center(BSCC).
文摘Three tiers of experiments in the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project(GMMIP),one of the endorsed model intercomparison projects of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),are implemented by the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2(FIO-ESM v2.0),following the GMMIP protocols.Evaluation of global mean surface air temperature from 1870 to 2014 and climatological precipitation(1979–2014)in tier-1 shows that the atmosphere model of FIO-ESM v2.0 can reproduce the basic observed atmospheric features.In tier-2,the internal variability is captured by the coupled model,with the SST restoring to the model climatology plus the observed anomalies in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic.Simulation of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation is significantly improved by the SST restoration in the North Atlantic.In tier-3,five orographic perturbation experiments are conducted covering the period 1979–2014 by modifying the surface elevation or vertical heating in the prescribed region.In particular,the strength of the South Asian summer monsoon is reduced by removing the topography or thermal forcing above 500 m over the Asian continent.Monthly and daily simulated outputs of FIO-ESM v2.0 are provided through the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF)node to contribute to a better understanding of the global monsoon system.
文摘大西洋经向翻转环流(Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,AMOC)作为全球大洋的极向热量输送带,对大西洋附近区域的天气及全球气候变化都存在至关重要的影响。采用自然资源部第一海洋研究所研发的地球系统模式FIO-ESM v2.0(First Institute of Oceanography-earth system model version 2.0)分析了1850~2014年AMOC的空间分布特征及时间变化规律,并进一步讨论造成该变化的可能因素。研究结果表明:1850~2014年AMOC最大值出现在40°N、1000 m深度附近,其时间序列总体呈现-0.0791×10^(6)m^(3)/(s·a)的减弱趋势,该期间伴随着Labrador、Irminger海域冬季混合层深度的变浅。通过将模式计算的AMOC强度与RAPID(rapid climate change programme)和OSNAP(overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic program)观测资料进行对比,结合模式间并行比较结果显示该模式能较好地再现观测数据期间的AMOC变化规律。FIO-ESM v2.0模式模拟的AMOC具有55 a左右的年代际周期,Labrador、Irminger海域冬季混合层深度变化揭示的对流变化以及Labrador、GIN海域表层海水密度变化造成的海水下沉对AMOC强度的周期性振荡贡献较明显,其周期性变化与海表盐度(sea surface salinity,SSS)、海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、蒸发与降水的差值、北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic oscillation,NAO)等要素的变化密切相关。
基金Laoshan Laboratory under contract No.LSKJ202202100the Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institute of China(Shu-Xingbei Young Talent Program)under contract No.2023S01+2 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2022YFC3104801 and 2022YFC3104803the Open Research Fund of Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Disaster Prediction and Prevention under contract No.GPKLMD2023005the China-Korea Joint Ocean Research Center under contract No.GHKJ2024005。
文摘This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the wave energy characteristics of the South China Sea(SCS)for 2015-2100 based on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios denoted SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585,representing the low,medium,high future forcing pathways proposed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).Averages and trends of selected wave energy parameters under the three future scenarios were analyzed and compared.These parameters are recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification(62600-101:2015)and can be accessed for wind waves and swells separately.Results suggest that wind waves are substantial contributors of wave energy in the northern part of the study area,whereas swells are more dominant in the other parts.Water depths have more pronounced impacts on the wave energy directions and the frequency and directional spreads in nearshore regions,especially in the Gulf of Thailand.Wave energy magnitude does not change much under SSP126 across the entire SCS.However,in the northern SCS,it increases under SSP245 and decreases under SSP585;and it increases in the southern SCS and decreases in the Gulf Thailand under both SSP245 and SSP585.At certain locations,trends of the magnitudes of wave energy do not reflect the level of forcing of the scenarios.These abnormalities can be traced to wind speed belts that have similar abnormal trends in the northern part of the study area and in the regions adjacent to the northeastern corner of the study area.
