Engineering construction project is a complicated and huge systematic work, and project post evaluation is an important part of Engineering summary. In engineering construction, many work contents cannot be quantified...Engineering construction project is a complicated and huge systematic work, and project post evaluation is an important part of Engineering summary. In engineering construction, many work contents cannot be quantified and scored. In this paper, analytic hierarchy process and success degree method can be used to complete the post evaluation of engineering construction projects, further analyze and summarize the success and failure of various works in engineering construction projects, and accumulate valuable experience for similar projects.展开更多
Case Method originated in the 1920s and was initiated by Harvard Business School in the United States.At that time,it adopted a unique style of case study,which was based on real situations or events in business manag...Case Method originated in the 1920s and was initiated by Harvard Business School in the United States.At that time,it adopted a unique style of case study,which was based on real situations or events in business management,in this way,it is helpful to cultivate and develop students’active participation in class discussion.For investment students,specialized courses such as Investment Project Evaluation and corporate finance are concentrated in the upper grades,and in the freshman,sophomore phase has completed the Finance,finance,macroeconomics and other basic courses.On the basis of students’existing knowledge structure,the course“Investment Project Evaluation”needs to fully tap students’potential in learning and train students’practical problem-solving ability,to cultivate students’thinking ability of combining theoretical knowledge with practical cases,to avoid the teaching mode of“I tell you to listen”,and to guide students to think,analyze and solve problems actively.展开更多
Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both g...Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.展开更多
Benefit evaluation of debris flow prevention and control projects was one of the essential contents of debris flow prevention and mitigation work.In order to scientifically and quantitatively evaluate the comprehensiv...Benefit evaluation of debris flow prevention and control projects was one of the essential contents of debris flow prevention and mitigation work.In order to scientifically and quantitatively evaluate the comprehensive benefit of debris flow prevention and control projects,this study identified nine factors as evaluation indicators from economic,social,and ecological aspects.The projection pursuit(PP) model based on the improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO) algorithm was used to construct a mathematical model to evaluate the benefit of debris flow prevention and control projects.The interpolation method was applied to divide the benefit grades.The debris flow prevention and control projects in Qipan,Taoguan,Chutou,Anjia,and Mozi gullies in Wenchuan County were chosen as typical cases for empirical analysis.The case study revealed that,among the criteria layer indicators,investment per unit of the protected area,investment per unit of the protected population,the amount of water and soil conservation,and reduction rate of accumulation fan had the most significant weights.The social and ecological benefits were found to be the more important in the target layer.The comprehensive benefit of Qipan,Taoguan,Chutou,Anjia,and Mozi gullies was found to be 4.44,4.83,1.95,3,and 2,respectively.The benefit ranking of the five gullies was consistent with their effectiveness in disaster prevention ranking in the flood season of 2019.Therefore,it could prove that the newly-built benefit evaluation model was practical and feasible,and the evaluation results of the sample could be reasonably interpreted,which verified the effectiveness of the methods.展开更多
To effectively select risk control schemes in uncertain environments,this paper has proposed an analysis and evaluation method based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Firstly,enterprises have adopted the br...To effectively select risk control schemes in uncertain environments,this paper has proposed an analysis and evaluation method based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Firstly,enterprises have adopted the brainstorming method and the Delphi method to identify risks in engineering projects,and organized the identified risks in the form of checklists to facilitate further analysis.Secondly,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory was introduced to determine the comparison matrix of each risk factor and its weight.Furthermore,the top five risk factors in terms of weight ranking were taken as the evaluation factors for the selection of risk control plans.The plans were scored through the weighted scoring method,and the optimal risk control plan was determined based on the score.Finally,the feasibility of the proposed selection technology was verified through A research example of the risk control plan assessment for the construction project of Enterprise A.展开更多
Through analysis on existing problems and rationality of East Street reconstruction project,its social benefit had been analyzed sysmatically and comprehensively from the aspects of social environment,natural environm...Through analysis on existing problems and rationality of East Street reconstruction project,its social benefit had been analyzed sysmatically and comprehensively from the aspects of social environment,natural environment and traffic safety environment.Furthermore,evaluation indexes of East Street reconstruction project had been established and weighting of each index had been identified by analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model had been founded through fuzzy synthetic evaluation method.Finally,scientific judgment was conducted on social benefit of East Street reconstruction project by applying established evaluation system.It demonstrated that East Street reconstruction project could bring great social benefit,so it should support this project.展开更多
An eco-industrial park or estate is a community of manufactaring and service businesses located together on a common property. The goat of ElP is to create a win-win harmonious development aspect of ecooomic developme...An eco-industrial park or estate is a community of manufactaring and service businesses located together on a common property. The goat of ElP is to create a win-win harmonious development aspect of ecooomic development and environmental protection. This paper emphasizes that the external .effect of an EIP is its main characteristic of technoeconomic evaluation for eco-industrial park project. From the view of the property, rights, the EIP＇s product is typicalty public-private. The government should take some inca.rares for the quantitative analysis on ecological positive externalities of the enterprises in EIP, and also should adopt Coase＇s Theorem, which supports that the market transaction is the best way to deal with positive externalities （external economics or diseconoraics）, or Pigou＇s Theorem, which holds that the government anti-positive externalities programs are the best way to cope with positive externalities, to internalize the EIP＇s external effects, which is also a fundamental tool to encourage investors to actively invest in EIP projects, Furthermore. this paper thinks that the EIP ＇s income should be equal to the income of staple products of the private property, and that of its by-products of the public property. According to this principle, this paper has put forward three major indicators, net present value （NPV）, internal rate of renan （IRR）, and investment repayment period （IRP）, which are also extensively used indicators in ardinary project techno-economic evaluation model to evaluate EIP technoeconomic effects. Theoretically, the indicatory not only can be used in EIP project evaluation, but also can provide a quantitative measure toot for the government to support EIP＇s construction to the maximum. In the end. a case is analyzed.展开更多
Based on the actual demand of project Management (PM) and the traditional conceptof Project Evaluation (PE), we extend the concept and connotation of PE In this paper, wepresent the concept of PE corresponding to the ...Based on the actual demand of project Management (PM) and the traditional conceptof Project Evaluation (PE), we extend the concept and connotation of PE In this paper, wepresent the concept of PE corresponding to the whole project life cycle, and divide it into ProjectEx Ante Evaluation (PAE), Project lnterim Evaluation (PIE) and Project Ex Post Evaluation(PPE), and mainly analyze PIE.展开更多
A new technique of dimension reduction named projection pursuit is applied to model and evaluatewetland soil quality variations in the Sanjiang Plain, Helongjiang Province, China. By adopting the im-proved real-coded ...A new technique of dimension reduction named projection pursuit is applied to model and evaluatewetland soil quality variations in the Sanjiang Plain, Helongjiang Province, China. By adopting the im-proved real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm (RAGA), the projection direction is optimized and multi-dimensional indexes are converted into low-dimensional space. Classification of wetland soils and evaluationof wetland soil quality variations are realized by pursuing optimum projection direction and projection func-tion value. Therefore, by adopting this new method, any possible human interference can be avoided andsound results can be achieved in researching quality changes and classification of wetland soils.展开更多
This article evaluates the performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China through comparisons with gridded observation data for the ...This article evaluates the performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China through comparisons with gridded observation data for the period of 1995–2014,with a focus on spatial patterns and interannual variability.The evaluations show that the CMIP6 models perform well in reproducing the climatological spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation,with better performance for temperature than for precipitation.Their interannual variability can also be reasonably captured by most models,however,poor performance is noted regarding the interannual variability of winter precipitation.Based on the comprehensive performance for the above two factors,the“highest-ranked”models are selected as an ensemble(BMME).The BMME outperforms the ensemble of all models(AMME)in simulating annual and winter temperature and precipitation,particularly for those subregions with complex terrain but it shows little improvement for summer temperature and precipitation.The AMME and BMME projections indicate annual increases for both temperature and precipitation across China by the end of the 21st century,with larger increases under the scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5/Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5(SSP585)than under scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2/Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(SSP245).The greatest increases of annual temperature are projected for higher latitudes and higher elevations and the largest percentage-based increases in annual precipitation are projected to occur in northern and western China,especially under SSP585.However,the BMME,which generally performs better in these regions,projects lower changes in annual temperature and larger variations in annual precipitation when compared to the AMME projections.展开更多
From 2010 to 2012, the China Geological Survey Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey （CHEGS） carried out the project ＂Potential evaluation and demonstration project of CO2 Geological Storage in C...From 2010 to 2012, the China Geological Survey Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey （CHEGS） carried out the project ＂Potential evaluation and demonstration project of CO2 Geological Storage in China＂. During this project, we developed an evaluation index system and technical methods for the potential and suitability of CO2 geological storage based on China＇s geological conditions, and evaluated the potential and suitability of the primary basins for COz geological storage, in order to draw a series of regional scale maps （at a scale of 1：5000000） and develop an atlas of the main sedimentary basins in China. By using these tools, we delineated many potential targets for CO2 storage. We also built techniques and methods for site selection and the exploration and assessment of CO2 geological storage in deep saline aquifers. Furthermore, through cooperation with the China Shenhua Coal to Liquid and Chemical Co., Ltd., we successfully constructed the first coal-based demonstration project for CO2 geological storage in deep saline aquifers in the Yijinhuoluo Banner of Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which brought about the basic preliminary theories, techniques, and methods of geological CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers under China＇s geological conditions.展开更多
For the gray attributes of the equipment program and its difficulty to carry out the quantitative assessment of the equipment program information, the gray relation projection method is simply reviewed. Combining the ...For the gray attributes of the equipment program and its difficulty to carry out the quantitative assessment of the equipment program information, the gray relation projection method is simply reviewed. Combining the super-data envelopment analysis（DEA） model and the gray system theory, a new super-DEA for measuring the weight is proposed, and a gray relation projection model is established to rank the equipment programs. Finally, this approach is used to evaluate the equipment program. The results are verified valid and can provide a new way for evaluating the equipment program.展开更多
The conditions for the positive operation of water conservancy projects are described in this paper. A scientific and effective evaluation index system was established based on frequency analysis, theoretical analysis...The conditions for the positive operation of water conservancy projects are described in this paper. A scientific and effective evaluation index system was established based on frequency analysis, theoretical analysis, and expert consultation. This evaluation index system can be divided into six first-level indices： the degree to which facilities are intact and functionality standards are reached, the status of operation and management funds, the rationality and degree of advancement of the management team structure, the adaptability and rationality of the water conservancy project management system, the degree of automatization and informationization of the management techniques, and the conduciveness of the exterior environment. The weights for evaluation indices were obtained through the analytic hierarchy process method with consideration of the difference between public welfare and profit-oriented water conservancy projects. This study provides a scientific method for evaluating the positive operation of water conservancy projects.展开更多
Based on 20 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),this article explored possible reasons for differences in simulation biases and projected changes in precipitation in northern China ...Based on 20 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),this article explored possible reasons for differences in simulation biases and projected changes in precipitation in northern China among the allmodel ensemble(AMME),“highest-ranked”model ensemble(BMME),and“lowest-ranked”model ensemble(WMME),from the perspective of atmospheric circulations and moisture budgets.The results show that the BMME and AMME reproduce the East Asian winter circulations better than the WMME.Compared with the AMME and WMME,the BMME reduces the overestimation of evaporation,thereby improving the simulation of winter precipitation.The three ensemble simulated biases for the East Asian summer circulations are generally similar,characterized by a stronger zonal pressure gradient between the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and East Asia and a northward displacement of the East Asian westerly jet.However,the simulated vertical moisture advection is improved in the BMME,contributing to the slightly higher performance of the BMME than the AMME and WMME on summer precipitation in North and Northeast China.Compared to the AMME and WMME,the BMME projects larger increases in precipitation in northern China during both seasons by the end of the 21st century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5).One of the reasons is that the increase in evaporation projected by the BMME is larger.The projection of a greater dynamic contribution by the BMME also plays a role.In addition,larger changes in the nonlinear components in the BMME projection contribute to a larger increase in winter precipitation in northern China.展开更多
With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions,especially in the Tibetan Plateau,global warming is undoubtedly occurring.In this study,we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model perfor...With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions,especially in the Tibetan Plateau,global warming is undoubtedly occurring.In this study,we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model performance regarding surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2014,reported spatiotemporal variability in surface air temperature in the future under four scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5),and further quantified the timing of warming levels(1.5,2,and 3℃)in the region.The results show that the multimodel ensemble means depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of surface air temperature for the past decades well,although with differences across individual models.The projected surface air temperature,by 2099,would warm by 1.9,3.2,5.2,and 6.3℃relative to the reference period(1981–2010),with increasing rates of 0.11,0.31,0.53,and 0.70℃/decade under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015–2099,respectively.Compared with the preindustrial periods(1850–1900),the mean annual surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau has hit the 1.5℃threshold and will break 2℃in the next decade,but there is still a chance to limit the temperature below 3℃in this century.Our study provides a new understanding of climate warming in high mountain areas and implies the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality.展开更多
Firstly,the related theories about agricultural science and technology innovation and project approval evaluation are combed and summarized. By combining application and finish books of science and technology support ...Firstly,the related theories about agricultural science and technology innovation and project approval evaluation are combed and summarized. By combining application and finish books of science and technology support plan project in agricultural field of Ministry of Science and Technology with stronger innovation,case analysis and expert interview are conducted. Evaluation indexes of agricultural science and technology project based on innovation value are proposed initially,and there are 50 initial indexes. After that,via focus group talk,qualitative research is conducted to further adjust innovative evaluation indexes,and 50 initial indexes are deleted to 41. The importance of the 41 indexes is scored by the experts,and index screening and classification are conducted by verification factor analysis in structural equation model. It not only obtains index classification but also finds action mechanism among innovation demand,innovation mode,research thinking,treatment method of difficulty,and predicted risk. The research could straighten up ideas of project review experts in agricultural field and provide reference for applicant designing project.展开更多
During the process of enterprises＇ strategy evaluation and selection, there are many evaluating indicators, and among them there are some potential correlations and conflicts. Thus it poses the problems to the decisi...During the process of enterprises＇ strategy evaluation and selection, there are many evaluating indicators, and among them there are some potential correlations and conflicts. Thus it poses the problems to the decision-makers how to conduct correct evaluation on a business and how to make strategy adjustment and selection according to the evaluation. Based on the qualitative and quantitative method, the paper introduces the Projection Pursuit Classification （PPC） model based on the Real-coded Accelerating Genetic Algorithm （RAGA） into the process of enterprises＇ strategy evaluation and selection. The characteristic of PPC model is that it ultimately overcomes the influence of the proportion of subjectivity and avoids precocious convergence, thus providing a new objective method for strategy evaluation and selection by pursuing the most objective strategy evaluation to make the relatively sensible strategy portfolio and action.展开更多
Risk evaluation is one of the important elements of international engineering project management. The risk factors of international engineering projects are systematically analyzed from multiple dimension features of ...Risk evaluation is one of the important elements of international engineering project management. The risk factors of international engineering projects are systematically analyzed from multiple dimension features of the projects. The muhilayer evaluation index system for the international engineering project risk assessment is proposed and constructed, which consists of 8 I-grade indexes and 24 II-grade indexes as policy risk, market risk, resource risk, and technical scheme risk, schedule risk, funding risk, personnel risk and management risk. And then the self-evaluation and benchmarking evaluation methods are applied to evaluate the international engineering project risk, and established the corresponding mathematical models. Finally, a project evaluation example is given to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the mathematical models.展开更多
文摘Engineering construction project is a complicated and huge systematic work, and project post evaluation is an important part of Engineering summary. In engineering construction, many work contents cannot be quantified and scored. In this paper, analytic hierarchy process and success degree method can be used to complete the post evaluation of engineering construction projects, further analyze and summarize the success and failure of various works in engineering construction projects, and accumulate valuable experience for similar projects.
基金Achievement of teaching reform research project in Sichuan University of Science&Engineering[JG1963]。
文摘Case Method originated in the 1920s and was initiated by Harvard Business School in the United States.At that time,it adopted a unique style of case study,which was based on real situations or events in business management,in this way,it is helpful to cultivate and develop students’active participation in class discussion.For investment students,specialized courses such as Investment Project Evaluation and corporate finance are concentrated in the upper grades,and in the freshman,sophomore phase has completed the Finance,finance,macroeconomics and other basic courses.On the basis of students’existing knowledge structure,the course“Investment Project Evaluation”needs to fully tap students’potential in learning and train students’practical problem-solving ability,to cultivate students’thinking ability of combining theoretical knowledge with practical cases,to avoid the teaching mode of“I tell you to listen”,and to guide students to think,analyze and solve problems actively.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2342210 and 42275043)the National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China(Grant Nos.J2223806,ZDJ2024-25 and ZDJ2025-34)。
文摘Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program(No.2018YFC1505402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41871174)+1 种基金the Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province(No.2020YFSY0013)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities Project(No.2682019CX19)。
文摘Benefit evaluation of debris flow prevention and control projects was one of the essential contents of debris flow prevention and mitigation work.In order to scientifically and quantitatively evaluate the comprehensive benefit of debris flow prevention and control projects,this study identified nine factors as evaluation indicators from economic,social,and ecological aspects.The projection pursuit(PP) model based on the improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO) algorithm was used to construct a mathematical model to evaluate the benefit of debris flow prevention and control projects.The interpolation method was applied to divide the benefit grades.The debris flow prevention and control projects in Qipan,Taoguan,Chutou,Anjia,and Mozi gullies in Wenchuan County were chosen as typical cases for empirical analysis.The case study revealed that,among the criteria layer indicators,investment per unit of the protected area,investment per unit of the protected population,the amount of water and soil conservation,and reduction rate of accumulation fan had the most significant weights.The social and ecological benefits were found to be the more important in the target layer.The comprehensive benefit of Qipan,Taoguan,Chutou,Anjia,and Mozi gullies was found to be 4.44,4.83,1.95,3,and 2,respectively.The benefit ranking of the five gullies was consistent with their effectiveness in disaster prevention ranking in the flood season of 2019.Therefore,it could prove that the newly-built benefit evaluation model was practical and feasible,and the evaluation results of the sample could be reasonably interpreted,which verified the effectiveness of the methods.
文摘To effectively select risk control schemes in uncertain environments,this paper has proposed an analysis and evaluation method based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Firstly,enterprises have adopted the brainstorming method and the Delphi method to identify risks in engineering projects,and organized the identified risks in the form of checklists to facilitate further analysis.Secondly,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory was introduced to determine the comparison matrix of each risk factor and its weight.Furthermore,the top five risk factors in terms of weight ranking were taken as the evaluation factors for the selection of risk control plans.The plans were scored through the weighted scoring method,and the optimal risk control plan was determined based on the score.Finally,the feasibility of the proposed selection technology was verified through A research example of the risk control plan assessment for the construction project of Enterprise A.
文摘Through analysis on existing problems and rationality of East Street reconstruction project,its social benefit had been analyzed sysmatically and comprehensively from the aspects of social environment,natural environment and traffic safety environment.Furthermore,evaluation indexes of East Street reconstruction project had been established and weighting of each index had been identified by analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model had been founded through fuzzy synthetic evaluation method.Finally,scientific judgment was conducted on social benefit of East Street reconstruction project by applying established evaluation system.It demonstrated that East Street reconstruction project could bring great social benefit,so it should support this project.
文摘An eco-industrial park or estate is a community of manufactaring and service businesses located together on a common property. The goat of ElP is to create a win-win harmonious development aspect of ecooomic development and environmental protection. This paper emphasizes that the external .effect of an EIP is its main characteristic of technoeconomic evaluation for eco-industrial park project. From the view of the property, rights, the EIP＇s product is typicalty public-private. The government should take some inca.rares for the quantitative analysis on ecological positive externalities of the enterprises in EIP, and also should adopt Coase＇s Theorem, which supports that the market transaction is the best way to deal with positive externalities （external economics or diseconoraics）, or Pigou＇s Theorem, which holds that the government anti-positive externalities programs are the best way to cope with positive externalities, to internalize the EIP＇s external effects, which is also a fundamental tool to encourage investors to actively invest in EIP projects, Furthermore. this paper thinks that the EIP ＇s income should be equal to the income of staple products of the private property, and that of its by-products of the public property. According to this principle, this paper has put forward three major indicators, net present value （NPV）, internal rate of renan （IRR）, and investment repayment period （IRP）, which are also extensively used indicators in ardinary project techno-economic evaluation model to evaluate EIP technoeconomic effects. Theoretically, the indicatory not only can be used in EIP project evaluation, but also can provide a quantitative measure toot for the government to support EIP＇s construction to the maximum. In the end. a case is analyzed.
文摘Based on the actual demand of project Management (PM) and the traditional conceptof Project Evaluation (PE), we extend the concept and connotation of PE In this paper, wepresent the concept of PE corresponding to the whole project life cycle, and divide it into ProjectEx Ante Evaluation (PAE), Project lnterim Evaluation (PIE) and Project Ex Post Evaluation(PPE), and mainly analyze PIE.
基金Project supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation,the Youth Foundation of Sichuan University(No.432028)and the National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(No.2002AA2Z4251).
文摘A new technique of dimension reduction named projection pursuit is applied to model and evaluatewetland soil quality variations in the Sanjiang Plain, Helongjiang Province, China. By adopting the im-proved real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm (RAGA), the projection direction is optimized and multi-dimensional indexes are converted into low-dimensional space. Classification of wetland soils and evaluationof wetland soil quality variations are realized by pursuing optimum projection direction and projection func-tion value. Therefore, by adopting this new method, any possible human interference can be avoided andsound results can be achieved in researching quality changes and classification of wetland soils.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42025502,41991285,42088101).
文摘This article evaluates the performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China through comparisons with gridded observation data for the period of 1995–2014,with a focus on spatial patterns and interannual variability.The evaluations show that the CMIP6 models perform well in reproducing the climatological spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation,with better performance for temperature than for precipitation.Their interannual variability can also be reasonably captured by most models,however,poor performance is noted regarding the interannual variability of winter precipitation.Based on the comprehensive performance for the above two factors,the“highest-ranked”models are selected as an ensemble(BMME).The BMME outperforms the ensemble of all models(AMME)in simulating annual and winter temperature and precipitation,particularly for those subregions with complex terrain but it shows little improvement for summer temperature and precipitation.The AMME and BMME projections indicate annual increases for both temperature and precipitation across China by the end of the 21st century,with larger increases under the scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5/Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5(SSP585)than under scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2/Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(SSP245).The greatest increases of annual temperature are projected for higher latitudes and higher elevations and the largest percentage-based increases in annual precipitation are projected to occur in northern and western China,especially under SSP585.However,the BMME,which generally performs better in these regions,projects lower changes in annual temperature and larger variations in annual precipitation when compared to the AMME projections.
文摘From 2010 to 2012, the China Geological Survey Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey （CHEGS） carried out the project ＂Potential evaluation and demonstration project of CO2 Geological Storage in China＂. During this project, we developed an evaluation index system and technical methods for the potential and suitability of CO2 geological storage based on China＇s geological conditions, and evaluated the potential and suitability of the primary basins for COz geological storage, in order to draw a series of regional scale maps （at a scale of 1：5000000） and develop an atlas of the main sedimentary basins in China. By using these tools, we delineated many potential targets for CO2 storage. We also built techniques and methods for site selection and the exploration and assessment of CO2 geological storage in deep saline aquifers. Furthermore, through cooperation with the China Shenhua Coal to Liquid and Chemical Co., Ltd., we successfully constructed the first coal-based demonstration project for CO2 geological storage in deep saline aquifers in the Yijinhuoluo Banner of Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which brought about the basic preliminary theories, techniques, and methods of geological CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers under China＇s geological conditions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7107307971222106+2 种基金70901069)the Research Foundation of the National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of Chinathe Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(20133402110028)
文摘For the gray attributes of the equipment program and its difficulty to carry out the quantitative assessment of the equipment program information, the gray relation projection method is simply reviewed. Combining the super-data envelopment analysis（DEA） model and the gray system theory, a new super-DEA for measuring the weight is proposed, and a gray relation projection model is established to rank the equipment programs. Finally, this approach is used to evaluate the equipment program. The results are verified valid and can provide a new way for evaluating the equipment program.
文摘The conditions for the positive operation of water conservancy projects are described in this paper. A scientific and effective evaluation index system was established based on frequency analysis, theoretical analysis, and expert consultation. This evaluation index system can be divided into six first-level indices： the degree to which facilities are intact and functionality standards are reached, the status of operation and management funds, the rationality and degree of advancement of the management team structure, the adaptability and rationality of the water conservancy project management system, the degree of automatization and informationization of the management techniques, and the conduciveness of the exterior environment. The weights for evaluation indices were obtained through the analytic hierarchy process method with consideration of the difference between public welfare and profit-oriented water conservancy projects. This study provides a scientific method for evaluating the positive operation of water conservancy projects.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41991285)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFA0605004)the Program for Distinguished Professors of Jiangsu。
文摘Based on 20 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),this article explored possible reasons for differences in simulation biases and projected changes in precipitation in northern China among the allmodel ensemble(AMME),“highest-ranked”model ensemble(BMME),and“lowest-ranked”model ensemble(WMME),from the perspective of atmospheric circulations and moisture budgets.The results show that the BMME and AMME reproduce the East Asian winter circulations better than the WMME.Compared with the AMME and WMME,the BMME reduces the overestimation of evaporation,thereby improving the simulation of winter precipitation.The three ensemble simulated biases for the East Asian summer circulations are generally similar,characterized by a stronger zonal pressure gradient between the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and East Asia and a northward displacement of the East Asian westerly jet.However,the simulated vertical moisture advection is improved in the BMME,contributing to the slightly higher performance of the BMME than the AMME and WMME on summer precipitation in North and Northeast China.Compared to the AMME and WMME,the BMME projects larger increases in precipitation in northern China during both seasons by the end of the 21st century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5).One of the reasons is that the increase in evaporation projected by the BMME is larger.The projection of a greater dynamic contribution by the BMME also plays a role.In addition,larger changes in the nonlinear components in the BMME projection contribute to a larger increase in winter precipitation in northern China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21A2006)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFC0507401)+3 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100102)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)(2019QZKK0208)the Start-up Funds for Introduced Talent at Lanzhou University(561120217)the China Scholarship Council(201904910442,201906990037)。
文摘With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions,especially in the Tibetan Plateau,global warming is undoubtedly occurring.In this study,we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model performance regarding surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2014,reported spatiotemporal variability in surface air temperature in the future under four scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5),and further quantified the timing of warming levels(1.5,2,and 3℃)in the region.The results show that the multimodel ensemble means depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of surface air temperature for the past decades well,although with differences across individual models.The projected surface air temperature,by 2099,would warm by 1.9,3.2,5.2,and 6.3℃relative to the reference period(1981–2010),with increasing rates of 0.11,0.31,0.53,and 0.70℃/decade under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015–2099,respectively.Compared with the preindustrial periods(1850–1900),the mean annual surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau has hit the 1.5℃threshold and will break 2℃in the next decade,but there is still a chance to limit the temperature below 3℃in this century.Our study provides a new understanding of climate warming in high mountain areas and implies the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality.
基金Supported by Special Item of Basic Science and Technology Work,Ministry of Science and Technology(2013IM030700)Youth Fund Project of Beijing Wuzi University in 2016(0541603716)Science Research Work Fund of Beijing Wuzi University(05416049)
文摘Firstly,the related theories about agricultural science and technology innovation and project approval evaluation are combed and summarized. By combining application and finish books of science and technology support plan project in agricultural field of Ministry of Science and Technology with stronger innovation,case analysis and expert interview are conducted. Evaluation indexes of agricultural science and technology project based on innovation value are proposed initially,and there are 50 initial indexes. After that,via focus group talk,qualitative research is conducted to further adjust innovative evaluation indexes,and 50 initial indexes are deleted to 41. The importance of the 41 indexes is scored by the experts,and index screening and classification are conducted by verification factor analysis in structural equation model. It not only obtains index classification but also finds action mechanism among innovation demand,innovation mode,research thinking,treatment method of difficulty,and predicted risk. The research could straighten up ideas of project review experts in agricultural field and provide reference for applicant designing project.
文摘During the process of enterprises＇ strategy evaluation and selection, there are many evaluating indicators, and among them there are some potential correlations and conflicts. Thus it poses the problems to the decision-makers how to conduct correct evaluation on a business and how to make strategy adjustment and selection according to the evaluation. Based on the qualitative and quantitative method, the paper introduces the Projection Pursuit Classification （PPC） model based on the Real-coded Accelerating Genetic Algorithm （RAGA） into the process of enterprises＇ strategy evaluation and selection. The characteristic of PPC model is that it ultimately overcomes the influence of the proportion of subjectivity and avoids precocious convergence, thus providing a new objective method for strategy evaluation and selection by pursuing the most objective strategy evaluation to make the relatively sensible strategy portfolio and action.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71172123Aviation Science Fund under Grant No.2012ZG53083humanities and social science research special task project of Chinese Ministry of education under Grant No.10JDSZ1010
文摘Risk evaluation is one of the important elements of international engineering project management. The risk factors of international engineering projects are systematically analyzed from multiple dimension features of the projects. The muhilayer evaluation index system for the international engineering project risk assessment is proposed and constructed, which consists of 8 I-grade indexes and 24 II-grade indexes as policy risk, market risk, resource risk, and technical scheme risk, schedule risk, funding risk, personnel risk and management risk. And then the self-evaluation and benchmarking evaluation methods are applied to evaluate the international engineering project risk, and established the corresponding mathematical models. Finally, a project evaluation example is given to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the mathematical models.
