Cone penetration test(CPT)is an appropriate technique for quickly determining the geotechnical properties of lunar soil,which is valuable for in situ lunar exploration.Utilizing a typical coupling method recently deve...Cone penetration test(CPT)is an appropriate technique for quickly determining the geotechnical properties of lunar soil,which is valuable for in situ lunar exploration.Utilizing a typical coupling method recently developed by the authors,a finite element method(FEM)-discrete element method(DEM)coupled model of CPTs is obtained.A series of CPTs in lunar soil are simulated to qualitatively reveal the flow of particles and the development of resistance throughout the penetration process.In addition,the effects of major factors,such as penetration velocity,penetration depth,cone tip angle,and the low gravity on the Moon surface are investigated.展开更多
Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper...Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper presents a data-driven approach to expansion estimation using electromechanical coupled models with machine learning.The proposed method integrates reduced-order impedance models with data-driven mechanical models,coupling the electrochemical and mechanical states through the state of charge(SOC)and mechanical pressure within a state estimation framework.The coupling relationship was established through experimental insights into pressure-related impedance parameters and the nonlinear mechanical behavior with SOC and pressure.The data-driven model was interpreted by introducing a novel swelling coefficient defined by component stiffnesses to capture the nonlinear mechanical behavior across various mechanical constraints.Sensitivity analysis of the impedance model shows that updating model parameters with pressure can reduce the mean absolute error of simulated voltage by 20 mV and SOC estimation error by 2%.The results demonstrate the model's estimation capabilities,achieving a root mean square error of less than 1 kPa when the maximum expansion force is from 30 kPa to 120 kPa,outperforming calibrated stiffness models and other machine learning techniques.The model's robustness and generalizability are further supported by its effective handling of SOC estimation and pressure measurement errors.This work highlights the importance of the proposed framework in enhancing state estimation and fault diagnosis for lithium-ion batteries.展开更多
Timely and accurate forecasting of storm surges can effectively prevent typhoon storm surges from causing large economic losses and casualties in coastal areas.At present,numerical model forecasting consumes too many ...Timely and accurate forecasting of storm surges can effectively prevent typhoon storm surges from causing large economic losses and casualties in coastal areas.At present,numerical model forecasting consumes too many resources and takes too long to compute,while neural network forecasting lacks regional data to train regional forecasting models.In this study,we used the DUAL wind model to build typhoon wind fields,and constructed a typhoon database of 75 processes in the northern South China Sea using the coupled Advanced Circulation-Simulating Waves Nearshore(ADCIRC-SWAN)model.Then,a neural network with a Res-U-Net structure was trained using the typhoon database to forecast the typhoon processes in the validation dataset,and an excellent storm surge forecasting effect was achieved in the Pearl River Estuary region.The storm surge forecasting effect of stronger typhoons was improved by adding a branch structure and transfer learning.展开更多
A coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical cohesive phase-field model for hydraulic fracturing in deep coal seams is presented.Heat exchange between the cold fluid and the hot rock is considered,and the thermal contribution t...A coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical cohesive phase-field model for hydraulic fracturing in deep coal seams is presented.Heat exchange between the cold fluid and the hot rock is considered,and the thermal contribution terms between the cold fluid and the hot rock are derived.Heat transfer obeys Fourier's law,and porosity is used to relate the thermodynamic parameters of the fracture and matrix domains.The net pressure difference between the fracture and the matrix is neglected,and thus the fluid flow is modeled by the unified fluid-governing equations.The evolution equations of porosity and Biot's coefficient during hydraulic fracturing are derived from their definitions.The effect of coal cleats is considered and modeled by Voronoi polygons,and this approach is shown to have high accuracy.The accuracy of the proposed model is verified by two sets of fracturing experiments in multilayer coal seams.Subsequently,the differences in fracture morphology,fluid pressure response,and fluid pressure distribution between direct fracturing of coal seams and indirect fracturing of shale interlayers are explored,and the effects of the cluster number and cluster spacing on fracture morphology for multi-cluster fracturing are also examined.The numerical results show that the proposed model is expected to be a powerful tool for the fracturing design and optimization of deep coalbed methane.展开更多
Nonuniform track support and differential settlements are commonly observed in bridge approaches where the ballast layer can develop gaps at crosstie-ballast interfaces often referred to as a hanging crosstie conditio...Nonuniform track support and differential settlements are commonly observed in bridge approaches where the ballast layer can develop gaps at crosstie-ballast interfaces often referred to as a hanging crosstie condition.Hanging crossties usually yield unfavorable dynamic effects such as higher wheel loads,which negatively impact the serviceability and safety of railway operations.Hence,a better understanding of the mechanisms that cause hanging crossties and their effects on the ballast layer load-deformation characteristics is necessary.Since the ballast layer is a particulate medium,the discrete element method(DEM),which simulates ballast particle interactions individually,is ideal to explore the interparticle contact forces and ballast movements under dynamic wheel loading.Accurate representations of the dynamic loads from the train and track superstructure are needed for high-fidelity DEM modeling.This paper introduces an integrated modeling approach,which couples a single-crosstie DEM ballast model with a train–track–bridge(TTB)model using a proportional–integral–derivative control loop.The TTB–DEM model was validated with field measurements,and the coupled model calculates similar crosstie displacements as the TTB model.The TTB–DEM provided new insights into the ballast particle-scale behavior,which the TTB model alone cannot explore.The TTB–DEM coupling approach identified detrimental effects of hanging crossties on adjacent crossties,which were found to experience drastic vibrations and large ballast contact force concentrations.展开更多
Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit signifi...Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit significant biases and inter-model differences in simulating ENSO,underscoring the need for alternative modeling approaches.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)is a sophisticated ocean model widely used for regional studies and has been coupled with various atmospheric models.However,its application in simulating ENSO processes on a basin scale in the tropical Pacific has not been explored.For the first time,this study presents the development of a basin-scale hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the tropical Pacific,integrating ROMS with a statistical atmospheric model that captures the interannual relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)and wind stress anomalies.The HCM is evaluated for its capability to simulate the annual mean,seasonal,and interannual variations of the oceanic state in the tropical Pacific.Results demonstrate that the model effectively reproduces the ENSO cycle,with a dominant oscillation period of approximately two years.The ROMS-based HCM developed here offers an efficient and robust tool for investigating climate variability in the tropical Pacific.展开更多
Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical(THM)processes in fractured rock are playing a crucial role in geoscience and geoengineering applications.Diverse and conceptually distinct approaches have emerged over the past decades ...Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical(THM)processes in fractured rock are playing a crucial role in geoscience and geoengineering applications.Diverse and conceptually distinct approaches have emerged over the past decades in both continuum and discontinuum perspectives leading to significant progress in their comprehending and modeling.This review paper offers an integrated perspective on existing modeling methodologies providing guidance for model selection based on the initial and boundary conditions.By comparing various models,one can better assess the uncertainties in predictions,particularly those related to the conceptual models.The review explores how these methodologies have significantlyenhanced the fundamental understanding of how fractures respond to fluid injection and production,and improved predictive capabilities pertaining to coupled processes within fractured systems.It emphasizes the importance of utilizing advanced computational technologies and thoroughly considering fundamental theories and principles established through past experimental evidence and practical experience.The selection and calibration of model parameters should be based on typical ranges and applied to the specificconditions of applications.The challenges arising from inherent heterogeneity and uncertainties,nonlinear THM coupled processes,scale dependence,and computational limitations in representing fieldscale fractures are discussed.Realizing potential advances on computational capacity calls for methodical conceptualization,mathematical modeling,selection of numerical solution strategies,implementation,and calibration to foster simulation outcomes that intricately reflectthe nuanced complexities of geological phenomena.Future research efforts should focus on innovative approaches to tackle the hurdles and advance the state-of-the-art in this critical fieldof study.展开更多
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a naturally recurring interannual climate fluctuation that affects the global climate system.The advent of deep learning-based approaches has led to transformative changes...The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a naturally recurring interannual climate fluctuation that affects the global climate system.The advent of deep learning-based approaches has led to transformative changes in ENSO forecasts,resulting in significant progress.Most deep learning-based ENSO prediction models which primarily rely solely on reanalysis data may lead to challenges in intensity underestimation in long-term forecasts,reducing the forecasting skills.To this end,we propose a deep residual-coupled model prediction(Res-CMP)model,which integrates historical reanalysis data and coupled model forecast data for multiyear ENSO prediction.The Res-CMP model is designed as a lightweight model that leverages only short-term reanalysis data and nudging assimilation prediction results of the Community Earth System Model(CESM)for effective prediction of the Niño 3.4 index.We also developed a transfer learning strategy for this model to overcome the limitations of inadequate forecast data.After determining the optimal configuration,which included selecting a suitable transfer learning rate during training,along with input variables and CESM forecast lengths,Res-CMP demonstrated a high correlation ability for 19-month lead time predictions(correlation coefficients exceeding 0.5).The Res-CMP model also alleviated the spring predictability barrier(SPB).When validated against actual ENSO events,Res-CMP successfully captured the temporal evolution of the Niño 3.4 index during La Niña events(1998/99 and 2020/21)and El Niño events(2009/10 and 2015/16).Our proposed model has the potential to further enhance ENSO prediction performance by using coupled models to assist deep learning methods.展开更多
This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone(TC)gales over the northern South China Sea.The atmosphere and o...This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone(TC)gales over the northern South China Sea.The atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled system are represented by the China Meteorological Administration’s Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS)and the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model(LICOM),respectively.The Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil VersionH 3(OASIS3)software has been utilized for the exchange of momentum,heat,and freshwater fluxes between these two components.An assessment of the coupled model’s three-day predictions for five TCs’gales was conducted.Preliminary findings indicate that the predicted TC tracks show less sensitivity to oceanic influences than the predicted TC intensities.Significant improvement in predicting the surface TC gales has been achieved through coupling the ocean model.This improvement is attributed to the impact of the warmer ocean’s effect on TC intensification,counteracting the cooling effect of the cold wake.In summary,coupling has enhanced the model’s predictive capabilities for TC gales.A detailed assessment of the coupled model’s performance in predicting other tropical weather phenomena is forthcoming.展开更多
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this st...Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.展开更多
This study presents a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) constitutive model for clay rocks. The model is formulated within the elastic-viscoplasticity framework, which considers nonlinearity and softening aft...This study presents a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) constitutive model for clay rocks. The model is formulated within the elastic-viscoplasticity framework, which considers nonlinearity and softening after peak strength, anisotropy of stiffness and strength, as well as permeability variation due to damage. In addition, the mechanical properties are coupled with thermal phenomena and accumulated plastic strains. The adopted nonlocal and viscoplastic approaches enhance numerical efficiency and provide the possibility to simulate localization phenomena. The model is validated against experimental data from laboratory tests conducted on Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone samples that are initially unsaturated and under suction. The tests include a thermal phase where the COx specimens are subjected to different temperature increases. A good agreement with experimental data is obtained. In addition, parametric analyses are carried out to investigate the influence of the hydraulic boundary conditions (B.C.) and post-failure behavior models on the THM behavior evolution. It is shown that different drainage conditions affect the thermally induced pore pressures that, in turn, influence the onset of softening. The constitutive model presented constitutes a promising approach for simulating the most important features of the THM behavior of clay rocks. It is a tool with a high potential for application to several relevant case studies, such as thermal fracturing analysis of nuclear waste disposal systems.展开更多
To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information ...To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information System(GIS)with integrated spatial data,a frequency ratio(FR)model,and a random forest(RF)model(also referred to as the coupled FR-RF model).The coupled FR-RF model was constructed based on the analysis of nine influential factors,including distance from roads,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and slope.The performance of the coupled FR-RF model was assessed using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)and Precision-Recall(PR)curves,yielding Area Under the Curve(AUC)values of 0.93 and 0.95,which indicate high predictive accuracy and reliability for geological hazard forecasting.Based on the model predictions,five susceptibility levels were determined in the study area,providing crucial spatial information for geologic hazard prevention and control.The contributions of various influential factors to landslide susceptibility were determined using SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis and the Gini index,enhancing the model interpretability and transparency.Additionally,this study discussed the limitations of the coupled FR-RF model and the prospects for its improvement using new technologies.This study provides an innovative method and theoretical support for geologic hazard prediction and management,holding promising prospects for application.展开更多
The global rise in energy demand, particularly in remote and sparsely populated regions, necessitates innovative and cost-effective electrical distribution solutions. Traditional Rural Electrification (RE) methods, li...The global rise in energy demand, particularly in remote and sparsely populated regions, necessitates innovative and cost-effective electrical distribution solutions. Traditional Rural Electrification (RE) methods, like Conventional Rural Electrification (CRE), have proven economically unfeasible in such areas due to high infrastructure costs and low electricity demand. Consequently, Unconventional Rural Electrification (URE) technologies, such as Capacitor Coupled Substations (CCS), are gaining attention as viable alternatives. This study presents the design and simulation of an 80 kW CCS system, which taps power directly from a 132 kV transmission line to supply low-voltage consumers. The critical components of the CCS, the capacitors are calculated, then a MATLAB/Simulink model with the attained results is executed. Mathematical representation and state-space representation for maintaining the desired tapped voltage area also developed. The research further explores the feasibility and operational performance of this CCS configuration, aiming to address the challenges of rural electrification by offering a sustainable and scalable solution. The results show that the desired value of the tapped voltage can be achieved at any level of High Voltage (HV) with the selection of capacitors that are correctly rated. With an adequately designed control strategy, the research also shows that tapped voltage can be attained under both steady-state and dynamic loads. By leveraging CCS technology, the study demonstrates the potential for delivering reliable electricity to underserved areas, highlighting the system’s practicality and effectiveness in overcoming the limitations of conventional distribution methods.展开更多
A thermo-mechanical coupled particle model for simulation of thermally-induced rock damage based on the particle simulation method was proposed.The simulation results of three verification examples,for which the analy...A thermo-mechanical coupled particle model for simulation of thermally-induced rock damage based on the particle simulation method was proposed.The simulation results of three verification examples,for which the analytical solutions are available,demonstrate the correctness and usefulness of the thermo-mechanical coupled particle model.This model is applied to simulating an application example with two cases：one is temperature-independent elastic modulus and strength,while the other is temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength.The related simulation results demonstrate that microscopic crack initiation and propagation process with consideration of temperature-independent and temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength are different and therefore,the corresponding macroscopic failure patterns of rock are also different.On the contrary,considering the temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength has no or little effect on the heating conduction behavior.Numerical results,which are obtained by using the proposed model with temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength,agree well with the experimental results.This also reveals that the rock subjected to heating experiences much more cracking than the rock subjected to cooling.展开更多
Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961-1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely ...Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961-1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models' ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.展开更多
A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed...A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.展开更多
Based on a 200 year simulation and reanalysis data (1980–1996), the general characteristics of East Asian monsoon (EAM) were analyzed in the first part of the paper. It is clear from this re-search that the South Asi...Based on a 200 year simulation and reanalysis data (1980–1996), the general characteristics of East Asian monsoon (EAM) were analyzed in the first part of the paper. It is clear from this re-search that the South Asian monsoon (SAM) defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is geographically and dynamically different from the East Asian monsoon (EAM). The region of the monsoon defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is located in the tropical region of Asia (40–110°E, 10–20°N), including the Indian monsoon and the Southeast Asian monsoon, while the EAM de-fined in this paper is located in the subtropical region of East Asia (110–125°E, 20–40°N). The components and the seasonal variations of the SAM and EAM are different and they characterize the tropical and subtropical Asian monsoon systems respectively. A suitable index (EAMI) for East Asian monsoon was then defined to describe the strength of EAM in this paper. In the second part of the paper, the interannual variability of EAM and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) in the 200 year simulation were studied by using the composite method, wavelet transformation, and the moving correlation coefficient method. The summer EAMI is negatively correlated with ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) cycle represented by the NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the preceding April and January, while the winter EAM is closely correlated with the succeeding spring SST over the Pacific in the coupled model. The general differences of EAM between El Nino and La Nina cases were studied in the model through composite analysis. It was also revealed that the dominating time scales of EAM variability may change in the long-term variation and the strength may also change. The anoma-lous winter EAM may have some correlation with the succeeding summer EAM, but this relation-ship may disappear sometimes in the long-term climate variation. Such time-dependence was found in the relationship between EAM and SST in the long-term climate simulation as well. Key words East Asian monsoon - Interannual variability - Coupled climate model The author wishes to thank Profs. Wu G.X., Zhang X.H., and Dr. Yu Y.Q. for providing the coupled model re-sults. Dr. Yu also kindly provided assistance in using the model output. This work was supported jointly by the Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China key project ’ The analysis on the seasonal-to-interannual variation of the general circulation’ under contract 49735160 and Chinese Academy of Sciences key project ’ The Interannual Va-riability and Predictability of East Asian Monsoon’.展开更多
A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models （ICMs） using only sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization sc...A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models （ICMs） using only sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization scheme, both the magnitude of the nudging parameter and the duration of the assimilation are considered, and initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST anomalies nudged to the observations. A comparison with the observations indicates that the scheme can generate realistic thermal fields and surface dynamic fields in the equatorial Pacific through hindcast experiments. An ideal experiment is performed to get the optimal nudging parameters which include the nudging intensity and nudging time length. Twelve-month-long hindcast experiments are performed with the model over the period 1984-2003 and the period 1997-2003. Compared with the original prediction results, the model prediction skills are significantly improved by the nudging method especially beyond a 6-month lead time during the two different periods. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed regarding the new coupled assimilation system.展开更多
A hybrid coupled model （HCM） is constructed for El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）-related modeling studies over almost the entire Pacific basin.An ocean general circulation model is coupled to a statistical atm...A hybrid coupled model （HCM） is constructed for El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）-related modeling studies over almost the entire Pacific basin.An ocean general circulation model is coupled to a statistical atmospheric model for interannual wind stress anomalies to represent their dominant coupling with sea surface temperatures.In addition,various relevant forcing and feedback processes exist in the region and can affect ENSO in a significant way; their effects are simply represented using historical data and are incorporated into the HCM,including stochastic forcing of atmospheric winds,and feedbacks associated with freshwater flux,ocean biology-induced heating （OBH）,and tropical instability waves （TIWs）.In addition to its computational efficiency,the advantages of making use of such an HCM enable these related forcing and feedback processes to be represented individually or collectively,allowing their modulating effects on ENSO to be examined in a clean and clear way.In this paper,examples are given to illustrate the ability of the HCM to depict the mean ocean state,the circulation pathways connecting the subtropics and tropics in the western Pacific,and interannual variability associated with ENSO.As satellite data are taken to parameterize processes that are not explicitly represented in the HCM,this work also demonstrates an innovative method of using remotely sensed data for climate modeling.Further model applications related with ENSO modulations by extratropical influences and by various forcings and feedbacks will be presented in Part Ⅱ of this study.展开更多
Generally, most soil slope failures are induced by rainfall infiltration, a process that involves interactions between the liquid phase, gas phase,and solid skeleton in an unsaturated soil slope. In this study, a loos...Generally, most soil slope failures are induced by rainfall infiltration, a process that involves interactions between the liquid phase, gas phase,and solid skeleton in an unsaturated soil slope. In this study, a loosely coupled liquid-gas-solid three-phase model, linking two numerical codes,TOUGH2/EOS3, which is used for water-air two-phase flow analysis, and FLAC^(3D), which is used for mechanical analysis, was established. The model was validated through a documented water drainage experiment over a sandy column and a comparison of the results with measured data and simulated results from other researchers. The proposed model was used to investigate the features of water-air two-phase flow and stress fields in an unsaturated soil slope during rainfall infiltration. The slope stability analysis was then performed based on the simulated water-air two-phase seepage and stress fields on a given slip surface. The results show that the safety factor for the given slip surface decreases first, then increases, and later decreases until the rainfall stops. Subsequently, a sudden rise occurs. After that, the safety factor decreases continually and reaches its lowest value, and then increases slowly to a steady value. The lowest value does not occur when the rainfall stops, indicating a delayed effect of the safety factor. The variations of the safety factor for the given slip surface are therefore caused by a combination of pore-air pressure, matric suction, normal stress, and net normal stress.展开更多
基金Project(51278451) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(LZ12E09001) supported by the Zhejiang Natural Science Foundation,China
文摘Cone penetration test(CPT)is an appropriate technique for quickly determining the geotechnical properties of lunar soil,which is valuable for in situ lunar exploration.Utilizing a typical coupling method recently developed by the authors,a finite element method(FEM)-discrete element method(DEM)coupled model of CPTs is obtained.A series of CPTs in lunar soil are simulated to qualitatively reveal the flow of particles and the development of resistance throughout the penetration process.In addition,the effects of major factors,such as penetration velocity,penetration depth,cone tip angle,and the low gravity on the Moon surface are investigated.
基金Fund supported this work for Excellent Youth Scholars of China(Grant No.52222708)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51977007)+1 种基金Part of this work is supported by the research project“SPEED”(03XP0585)at RWTH Aachen Universityfunded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research(BMBF)。
文摘Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper presents a data-driven approach to expansion estimation using electromechanical coupled models with machine learning.The proposed method integrates reduced-order impedance models with data-driven mechanical models,coupling the electrochemical and mechanical states through the state of charge(SOC)and mechanical pressure within a state estimation framework.The coupling relationship was established through experimental insights into pressure-related impedance parameters and the nonlinear mechanical behavior with SOC and pressure.The data-driven model was interpreted by introducing a novel swelling coefficient defined by component stiffnesses to capture the nonlinear mechanical behavior across various mechanical constraints.Sensitivity analysis of the impedance model shows that updating model parameters with pressure can reduce the mean absolute error of simulated voltage by 20 mV and SOC estimation error by 2%.The results demonstrate the model's estimation capabilities,achieving a root mean square error of less than 1 kPa when the maximum expansion force is from 30 kPa to 120 kPa,outperforming calibrated stiffness models and other machine learning techniques.The model's robustness and generalizability are further supported by its effective handling of SOC estimation and pressure measurement errors.This work highlights the importance of the proposed framework in enhancing state estimation and fault diagnosis for lithium-ion batteries.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42076214)Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No.ZR2024QD057).
文摘Timely and accurate forecasting of storm surges can effectively prevent typhoon storm surges from causing large economic losses and casualties in coastal areas.At present,numerical model forecasting consumes too many resources and takes too long to compute,while neural network forecasting lacks regional data to train regional forecasting models.In this study,we used the DUAL wind model to build typhoon wind fields,and constructed a typhoon database of 75 processes in the northern South China Sea using the coupled Advanced Circulation-Simulating Waves Nearshore(ADCIRC-SWAN)model.Then,a neural network with a Res-U-Net structure was trained using the typhoon database to forecast the typhoon processes in the validation dataset,and an excellent storm surge forecasting effect was achieved in the Pearl River Estuary region.The storm surge forecasting effect of stronger typhoons was improved by adding a branch structure and transfer learning.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42202314)。
文摘A coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical cohesive phase-field model for hydraulic fracturing in deep coal seams is presented.Heat exchange between the cold fluid and the hot rock is considered,and the thermal contribution terms between the cold fluid and the hot rock are derived.Heat transfer obeys Fourier's law,and porosity is used to relate the thermodynamic parameters of the fracture and matrix domains.The net pressure difference between the fracture and the matrix is neglected,and thus the fluid flow is modeled by the unified fluid-governing equations.The evolution equations of porosity and Biot's coefficient during hydraulic fracturing are derived from their definitions.The effect of coal cleats is considered and modeled by Voronoi polygons,and this approach is shown to have high accuracy.The accuracy of the proposed model is verified by two sets of fracturing experiments in multilayer coal seams.Subsequently,the differences in fracture morphology,fluid pressure response,and fluid pressure distribution between direct fracturing of coal seams and indirect fracturing of shale interlayers are explored,and the effects of the cluster number and cluster spacing on fracture morphology for multi-cluster fracturing are also examined.The numerical results show that the proposed model is expected to be a powerful tool for the fracturing design and optimization of deep coalbed methane.
基金a U.S. Federal Railroad Administration (FRA)BAA project,titled “Mitigation of Differential Movement at Railway Transitions for High-Speed Passenger Rail and Joint Passenger/Freight Corridors”the financial support provided by the China Scholarship Council (CSC),which funded Zhongyi Liu’s and Wenjing Li’s time and research efforts for this study
文摘Nonuniform track support and differential settlements are commonly observed in bridge approaches where the ballast layer can develop gaps at crosstie-ballast interfaces often referred to as a hanging crosstie condition.Hanging crossties usually yield unfavorable dynamic effects such as higher wheel loads,which negatively impact the serviceability and safety of railway operations.Hence,a better understanding of the mechanisms that cause hanging crossties and their effects on the ballast layer load-deformation characteristics is necessary.Since the ballast layer is a particulate medium,the discrete element method(DEM),which simulates ballast particle interactions individually,is ideal to explore the interparticle contact forces and ballast movements under dynamic wheel loading.Accurate representations of the dynamic loads from the train and track superstructure are needed for high-fidelity DEM modeling.This paper introduces an integrated modeling approach,which couples a single-crosstie DEM ballast model with a train–track–bridge(TTB)model using a proportional–integral–derivative control loop.The TTB–DEM model was validated with field measurements,and the coupled model calculates similar crosstie displacements as the TTB model.The TTB–DEM provided new insights into the ballast particle-scale behavior,which the TTB model alone cannot explore.The TTB–DEM coupling approach identified detrimental effects of hanging crossties on adjacent crossties,which were found to experience drastic vibrations and large ballast contact force concentrations.
基金Supported by the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ 202202404)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDB 42000000)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.42030410)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST,and the Jiangsu Innovation Research Group(No.JSSCTD 202346)。
文摘Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit significant biases and inter-model differences in simulating ENSO,underscoring the need for alternative modeling approaches.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)is a sophisticated ocean model widely used for regional studies and has been coupled with various atmospheric models.However,its application in simulating ENSO processes on a basin scale in the tropical Pacific has not been explored.For the first time,this study presents the development of a basin-scale hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the tropical Pacific,integrating ROMS with a statistical atmospheric model that captures the interannual relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)and wind stress anomalies.The HCM is evaluated for its capability to simulate the annual mean,seasonal,and interannual variations of the oceanic state in the tropical Pacific.Results demonstrate that the model effectively reproduces the ENSO cycle,with a dominant oscillation period of approximately two years.The ROMS-based HCM developed here offers an efficient and robust tool for investigating climate variability in the tropical Pacific.
基金funding from the European Research Council(ERC)under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program through the Starting Grant GEoREST(grant agreement No.801809)support by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by"European Union Next Generation EU/PRTR"through the‘Ramón y Cajal’fellowship(reference RYC2021-032780-I)+9 种基金funding by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by“ERDF,EU”through the‘HydroPoreII’project(reference PID2022-137652NBC44)support by the Institute for Korea Spent Nuclear Fuel(iKSNF)National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)grant funded by the Korea government(Ministry of Science and ICT,MSIT)(2021M2E1A1085196)support by the Swedish Radiation Safety(SSM),Swedish Transport Administration(Trafikverket),Swedish Rock Engineering Foundation(BeFo),and Nordic Energy Research(Grant 187658)supported by the US Department of Energy(DOE),the Officeof Nuclear Energy,Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign,and by the US Department of Energy(DOE),the Office of Basic Energy Sciences,Chemical Sciences,Geosciences,and Biosciences Division both under Contract Number DE-AC02-05CH11231 with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratorysupport from the US National Science Foundation(grant CMMI-2239630)funding from the European Research Council(ERC)under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme(grant agreement No.101002507)the UK Natural Environment Research Council(NERC)for funding SeisGreen Project(Grant No.NE/W009293/1)which supported this workthe Royal Society UK for supporting this research through fellowship UF160443IMEDEA is an accredited"Maria de Maeztu Excellence Unit"(Grant CEX2021-001198,funded by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033).
文摘Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical(THM)processes in fractured rock are playing a crucial role in geoscience and geoengineering applications.Diverse and conceptually distinct approaches have emerged over the past decades in both continuum and discontinuum perspectives leading to significant progress in their comprehending and modeling.This review paper offers an integrated perspective on existing modeling methodologies providing guidance for model selection based on the initial and boundary conditions.By comparing various models,one can better assess the uncertainties in predictions,particularly those related to the conceptual models.The review explores how these methodologies have significantlyenhanced the fundamental understanding of how fractures respond to fluid injection and production,and improved predictive capabilities pertaining to coupled processes within fractured systems.It emphasizes the importance of utilizing advanced computational technologies and thoroughly considering fundamental theories and principles established through past experimental evidence and practical experience.The selection and calibration of model parameters should be based on typical ranges and applied to the specificconditions of applications.The challenges arising from inherent heterogeneity and uncertainties,nonlinear THM coupled processes,scale dependence,and computational limitations in representing fieldscale fractures are discussed.Realizing potential advances on computational capacity calls for methodical conceptualization,mathematical modeling,selection of numerical solution strategies,implementation,and calibration to foster simulation outcomes that intricately reflectthe nuanced complexities of geological phenomena.Future research efforts should focus on innovative approaches to tackle the hurdles and advance the state-of-the-art in this critical fieldof study.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2024YFF0808900,2023YFF0805300,and 2020YFA0608804the Civilian Space Programme of China under contract No.D040305.
文摘The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a naturally recurring interannual climate fluctuation that affects the global climate system.The advent of deep learning-based approaches has led to transformative changes in ENSO forecasts,resulting in significant progress.Most deep learning-based ENSO prediction models which primarily rely solely on reanalysis data may lead to challenges in intensity underestimation in long-term forecasts,reducing the forecasting skills.To this end,we propose a deep residual-coupled model prediction(Res-CMP)model,which integrates historical reanalysis data and coupled model forecast data for multiyear ENSO prediction.The Res-CMP model is designed as a lightweight model that leverages only short-term reanalysis data and nudging assimilation prediction results of the Community Earth System Model(CESM)for effective prediction of the Niño 3.4 index.We also developed a transfer learning strategy for this model to overcome the limitations of inadequate forecast data.After determining the optimal configuration,which included selecting a suitable transfer learning rate during training,along with input variables and CESM forecast lengths,Res-CMP demonstrated a high correlation ability for 19-month lead time predictions(correlation coefficients exceeding 0.5).The Res-CMP model also alleviated the spring predictability barrier(SPB).When validated against actual ENSO events,Res-CMP successfully captured the temporal evolution of the Niño 3.4 index during La Niña events(1998/99 and 2020/21)and El Niño events(2009/10 and 2015/16).Our proposed model has the potential to further enhance ENSO prediction performance by using coupled models to assist deep learning methods.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFC3008005]the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation [grant numbers 2022A1515011288 and 2024A1515030210]+1 种基金the Key Innovation Team of the China Meteorological Administration [grant number CMA2023ZD08]the Guangdong Provincial Marine Meteorology Science Data Center [grant number 2024B1212070014]。
文摘This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone(TC)gales over the northern South China Sea.The atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled system are represented by the China Meteorological Administration’s Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS)and the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model(LICOM),respectively.The Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil VersionH 3(OASIS3)software has been utilized for the exchange of momentum,heat,and freshwater fluxes between these two components.An assessment of the coupled model’s three-day predictions for five TCs’gales was conducted.Preliminary findings indicate that the predicted TC tracks show less sensitivity to oceanic influences than the predicted TC intensities.Significant improvement in predicting the surface TC gales has been achieved through coupling the ocean model.This improvement is attributed to the impact of the warmer ocean’s effect on TC intensification,counteracting the cooling effect of the cold wake.In summary,coupling has enhanced the model’s predictive capabilities for TC gales.A detailed assessment of the coupled model’s performance in predicting other tropical weather phenomena is forthcoming.
基金jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)[grant number 42130608]the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[grant number 2024M753169]。
文摘Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.
基金funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under a grant agreement (Grant No.847593)partially supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No.22120240029).
文摘This study presents a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) constitutive model for clay rocks. The model is formulated within the elastic-viscoplasticity framework, which considers nonlinearity and softening after peak strength, anisotropy of stiffness and strength, as well as permeability variation due to damage. In addition, the mechanical properties are coupled with thermal phenomena and accumulated plastic strains. The adopted nonlocal and viscoplastic approaches enhance numerical efficiency and provide the possibility to simulate localization phenomena. The model is validated against experimental data from laboratory tests conducted on Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone samples that are initially unsaturated and under suction. The tests include a thermal phase where the COx specimens are subjected to different temperature increases. A good agreement with experimental data is obtained. In addition, parametric analyses are carried out to investigate the influence of the hydraulic boundary conditions (B.C.) and post-failure behavior models on the THM behavior evolution. It is shown that different drainage conditions affect the thermally induced pore pressures that, in turn, influence the onset of softening. The constitutive model presented constitutes a promising approach for simulating the most important features of the THM behavior of clay rocks. It is a tool with a high potential for application to several relevant case studies, such as thermal fracturing analysis of nuclear waste disposal systems.
基金supported by the project of the China Geological Survey(DD20230591).
文摘To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information System(GIS)with integrated spatial data,a frequency ratio(FR)model,and a random forest(RF)model(also referred to as the coupled FR-RF model).The coupled FR-RF model was constructed based on the analysis of nine influential factors,including distance from roads,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and slope.The performance of the coupled FR-RF model was assessed using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)and Precision-Recall(PR)curves,yielding Area Under the Curve(AUC)values of 0.93 and 0.95,which indicate high predictive accuracy and reliability for geological hazard forecasting.Based on the model predictions,five susceptibility levels were determined in the study area,providing crucial spatial information for geologic hazard prevention and control.The contributions of various influential factors to landslide susceptibility were determined using SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis and the Gini index,enhancing the model interpretability and transparency.Additionally,this study discussed the limitations of the coupled FR-RF model and the prospects for its improvement using new technologies.This study provides an innovative method and theoretical support for geologic hazard prediction and management,holding promising prospects for application.
文摘The global rise in energy demand, particularly in remote and sparsely populated regions, necessitates innovative and cost-effective electrical distribution solutions. Traditional Rural Electrification (RE) methods, like Conventional Rural Electrification (CRE), have proven economically unfeasible in such areas due to high infrastructure costs and low electricity demand. Consequently, Unconventional Rural Electrification (URE) technologies, such as Capacitor Coupled Substations (CCS), are gaining attention as viable alternatives. This study presents the design and simulation of an 80 kW CCS system, which taps power directly from a 132 kV transmission line to supply low-voltage consumers. The critical components of the CCS, the capacitors are calculated, then a MATLAB/Simulink model with the attained results is executed. Mathematical representation and state-space representation for maintaining the desired tapped voltage area also developed. The research further explores the feasibility and operational performance of this CCS configuration, aiming to address the challenges of rural electrification by offering a sustainable and scalable solution. The results show that the desired value of the tapped voltage can be achieved at any level of High Voltage (HV) with the selection of capacitors that are correctly rated. With an adequately designed control strategy, the research also shows that tapped voltage can be attained under both steady-state and dynamic loads. By leveraging CCS technology, the study demonstrates the potential for delivering reliable electricity to underserved areas, highlighting the system’s practicality and effectiveness in overcoming the limitations of conventional distribution methods.
基金Project(41372338)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A thermo-mechanical coupled particle model for simulation of thermally-induced rock damage based on the particle simulation method was proposed.The simulation results of three verification examples,for which the analytical solutions are available,demonstrate the correctness and usefulness of the thermo-mechanical coupled particle model.This model is applied to simulating an application example with two cases：one is temperature-independent elastic modulus and strength,while the other is temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength.The related simulation results demonstrate that microscopic crack initiation and propagation process with consideration of temperature-independent and temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength are different and therefore,the corresponding macroscopic failure patterns of rock are also different.On the contrary,considering the temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength has no or little effect on the heating conduction behavior.Numerical results,which are obtained by using the proposed model with temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength,agree well with the experimental results.This also reveals that the rock subjected to heating experiences much more cracking than the rock subjected to cooling.
基金This research was jointly supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)under Grant No.KZCX3-SW-221by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40405015+1 种基金by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology under Grant No.2001BA611B(part 1)by the CAS“Hundred Talent Project"funding awarded to Gao Yongqi.
文摘Using observation and reanalysis data throughout 1961-1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCAR-PCM, are systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models' ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors are displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compared with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances are much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.
基金This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 40523001, 40221503, 40675050）Major State Basic Research Development Program of China under Grant Nos. 2005CB321703, 2006CB403603the International Partnership Creative Group entitled ＂The Climate System Model Development and Application Studies＂.
文摘A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.
文摘Based on a 200 year simulation and reanalysis data (1980–1996), the general characteristics of East Asian monsoon (EAM) were analyzed in the first part of the paper. It is clear from this re-search that the South Asian monsoon (SAM) defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is geographically and dynamically different from the East Asian monsoon (EAM). The region of the monsoon defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is located in the tropical region of Asia (40–110°E, 10–20°N), including the Indian monsoon and the Southeast Asian monsoon, while the EAM de-fined in this paper is located in the subtropical region of East Asia (110–125°E, 20–40°N). The components and the seasonal variations of the SAM and EAM are different and they characterize the tropical and subtropical Asian monsoon systems respectively. A suitable index (EAMI) for East Asian monsoon was then defined to describe the strength of EAM in this paper. In the second part of the paper, the interannual variability of EAM and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) in the 200 year simulation were studied by using the composite method, wavelet transformation, and the moving correlation coefficient method. The summer EAMI is negatively correlated with ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) cycle represented by the NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the preceding April and January, while the winter EAM is closely correlated with the succeeding spring SST over the Pacific in the coupled model. The general differences of EAM between El Nino and La Nina cases were studied in the model through composite analysis. It was also revealed that the dominating time scales of EAM variability may change in the long-term variation and the strength may also change. The anoma-lous winter EAM may have some correlation with the succeeding summer EAM, but this relation-ship may disappear sometimes in the long-term climate variation. Such time-dependence was found in the relationship between EAM and SST in the long-term climate simulation as well. Key words East Asian monsoon - Interannual variability - Coupled climate model The author wishes to thank Profs. Wu G.X., Zhang X.H., and Dr. Yu Y.Q. for providing the coupled model re-sults. Dr. Yu also kindly provided assistance in using the model output. This work was supported jointly by the Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China key project ’ The analysis on the seasonal-to-interannual variation of the general circulation’ under contract 49735160 and Chinese Academy of Sciences key project ’ The Interannual Va-riability and Predictability of East Asian Monsoon’.
基金The research was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 60225015, 40233033, and 40221503）.
文摘A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models （ICMs） using only sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization scheme, both the magnitude of the nudging parameter and the duration of the assimilation are considered, and initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST anomalies nudged to the observations. A comparison with the observations indicates that the scheme can generate realistic thermal fields and surface dynamic fields in the equatorial Pacific through hindcast experiments. An ideal experiment is performed to get the optimal nudging parameters which include the nudging intensity and nudging time length. Twelve-month-long hindcast experiments are performed with the model over the period 1984-2003 and the period 1997-2003. Compared with the original prediction results, the model prediction skills are significantly improved by the nudging method especially beyond a 6-month lead time during the two different periods. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed regarding the new coupled assimilation system.
基金supported by the CAS Strategic Priority Project (the Western Pacific Ocean System: Structure, Dynamics and Consequences, WPOS)a China 973 project (Grant No. 2012CB956000)+1 种基金the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41206017)
文摘A hybrid coupled model （HCM） is constructed for El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）-related modeling studies over almost the entire Pacific basin.An ocean general circulation model is coupled to a statistical atmospheric model for interannual wind stress anomalies to represent their dominant coupling with sea surface temperatures.In addition,various relevant forcing and feedback processes exist in the region and can affect ENSO in a significant way; their effects are simply represented using historical data and are incorporated into the HCM,including stochastic forcing of atmospheric winds,and feedbacks associated with freshwater flux,ocean biology-induced heating （OBH）,and tropical instability waves （TIWs）.In addition to its computational efficiency,the advantages of making use of such an HCM enable these related forcing and feedback processes to be represented individually or collectively,allowing their modulating effects on ENSO to be examined in a clean and clear way.In this paper,examples are given to illustrate the ability of the HCM to depict the mean ocean state,the circulation pathways connecting the subtropics and tropics in the western Pacific,and interannual variability associated with ENSO.As satellite data are taken to parameterize processes that are not explicitly represented in the HCM,this work also demonstrates an innovative method of using remotely sensed data for climate modeling.Further model applications related with ENSO modulations by extratropical influences and by various forcings and feedbacks will be presented in Part Ⅱ of this study.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51579170 and 51179118)the Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51321065)
文摘Generally, most soil slope failures are induced by rainfall infiltration, a process that involves interactions between the liquid phase, gas phase,and solid skeleton in an unsaturated soil slope. In this study, a loosely coupled liquid-gas-solid three-phase model, linking two numerical codes,TOUGH2/EOS3, which is used for water-air two-phase flow analysis, and FLAC^(3D), which is used for mechanical analysis, was established. The model was validated through a documented water drainage experiment over a sandy column and a comparison of the results with measured data and simulated results from other researchers. The proposed model was used to investigate the features of water-air two-phase flow and stress fields in an unsaturated soil slope during rainfall infiltration. The slope stability analysis was then performed based on the simulated water-air two-phase seepage and stress fields on a given slip surface. The results show that the safety factor for the given slip surface decreases first, then increases, and later decreases until the rainfall stops. Subsequently, a sudden rise occurs. After that, the safety factor decreases continually and reaches its lowest value, and then increases slowly to a steady value. The lowest value does not occur when the rainfall stops, indicating a delayed effect of the safety factor. The variations of the safety factor for the given slip surface are therefore caused by a combination of pore-air pressure, matric suction, normal stress, and net normal stress.
