China＇s economic growth has been driven by the dual-engine of domestic demand and external demand. Among which, domestic demand is the main engine originated from China＇s huge domestic market. Due to the advantage o...China＇s economic growth has been driven by the dual-engine of domestic demand and external demand. Among which, domestic demand is the main engine originated from China＇s huge domestic market. Due to the advantage of openness, external demand has a growing contribution to economic growth. For a long term, China will remain in the stage of rapid industrialization, urbanization, marketization and internationalization, therefore China will further expand its domestic consumption and external demand. The undergoing institutional reform will also contribute to the coordinated development of domestic demand and external demand.展开更多
Industry collapse has become an importantphenomenon in China＇s recent economic growth fluctuation. This paper develops a simple model to analyze this phenomenon. Our analysis focuses on an external demand decline-cau...Industry collapse has become an importantphenomenon in China＇s recent economic growth fluctuation. This paper develops a simple model to analyze this phenomenon. Our analysis focuses on an external demand decline-caused industry collapse. The model reveals that the combination of large-scale decline in external demand with a horizontal domestic supply curve causes the domestic export industry to undergo a sharp decrease in output in a short period of time, which further leads to a sharp decline in employment. The conventional stabilization policy is less effective in coping with this sudden industry collapse. The Chinese Government needs to formulate an appropriate structural industry stabilization policy to cope with the sudden industry collapse, and, in particular, to implement a direct employment aid program to deal with unemployment resulting from the industry collapse.展开更多
Building a unified national market serves as a fundamental support and intrinsic requirement for creating a new development pattern and pursuing high-quality economic development.This paper examines the impact of exte...Building a unified national market serves as a fundamental support and intrinsic requirement for creating a new development pattern and pursuing high-quality economic development.This paper examines the impact of external demand shocks and domestic market segmentation on China's economic growth and economic structure.It further discusses the potential role of establishing a unified national market in promoting the high-quality development of China's economy.Based on the dynamic quantitative spatial general equilibrium model,this paper characterizes the relationships among external demand shocks,market segmentation,economic growth,and economic structure within a unified theoretical framework.lt accounts for major macroeconomic phenomena observed in China before and after the 2008 global financial crisis,such as the initial rise and subsequent decline in the economic growth rate and the transition from imbalance to balance in industrial structure,income distribution structure,and consumption-saving structure.The study finds that domestic market segmentation exacerbates the negative effects of shrinking external demand on economic growth and economic structure,while a unified national market can reduce the extent of decline in the economic growth rate by two-thirds.This paper further estimates the potential impacts of reducing segmentation in product and labor markets on economic growth and social welfare,and finds that product market integration has a more significant effect on promoting economic growth,while labor market integration is more beneficial for improving social welfare.Both help to facilitate high-quality economic rebalancing.The policy implication of this paper lies in that developing a unified national market has a great potential to drive economic growth and economic rebalancing.Reform is needed to unleash institutional dividends,enabling regions to shift from"segmentation"to"regional division of labor,"and facilitating high-quality economic development.展开更多
Both academia and actual economic sectors have certain misunderstandings regarding the development of China＇s open economy. Since its accession to the WTO, China has in fact had an open economy and not an ＂export-or...Both academia and actual economic sectors have certain misunderstandings regarding the development of China＇s open economy. Since its accession to the WTO, China has in fact had an open economy and not an ＂export-oriented＂ economy. China＇s trade imbalance in the global economy is merely a result of economic disparities between the world＇s more- and less- developed regions combined with the rational optimization of resources. The current situation, wherein China appears to be heavily export-oriented, stems naturally from the real economy moving towards a dynamic equilibrium against a backdrop of economic globalization and deepening international specialization. We have concluded that domestic consumption and external demand reinforce each other, and the development of an open economy in China is therefore not at odds with expanding domestic consumption.展开更多
To study the relationship between under-urbanization and international trade, we set up a model of the transfer of surplus rural labor in an open economy using 1995-2010 data from 40 countries and regions where indust...To study the relationship between under-urbanization and international trade, we set up a model of the transfer of surplus rural labor in an open economy using 1995-2010 data from 40 countries and regions where industrialization was incomplete. Our findings indicate that if, in an open economy, there is a substantial labor surplus and in which domestic goods and services can be sold to foreign markets, there will be a significantly positive correlation between the net export ratio and the degree to which urbanization lags behind industrialization; countries or regions with higher marketization level, lower urban unemployment rate and poorer public health facilities are more likely to be under- urbanized; and an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between under-urbanization and percapita GDR展开更多
文摘China＇s economic growth has been driven by the dual-engine of domestic demand and external demand. Among which, domestic demand is the main engine originated from China＇s huge domestic market. Due to the advantage of openness, external demand has a growing contribution to economic growth. For a long term, China will remain in the stage of rapid industrialization, urbanization, marketization and internationalization, therefore China will further expand its domestic consumption and external demand. The undergoing institutional reform will also contribute to the coordinated development of domestic demand and external demand.
文摘Industry collapse has become an importantphenomenon in China＇s recent economic growth fluctuation. This paper develops a simple model to analyze this phenomenon. Our analysis focuses on an external demand decline-caused industry collapse. The model reveals that the combination of large-scale decline in external demand with a horizontal domestic supply curve causes the domestic export industry to undergo a sharp decrease in output in a short period of time, which further leads to a sharp decline in employment. The conventional stabilization policy is less effective in coping with this sudden industry collapse. The Chinese Government needs to formulate an appropriate structural industry stabilization policy to cope with the sudden industry collapse, and, in particular, to implement a direct employment aid program to deal with unemployment resulting from the industry collapse.
基金the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China(No.21ZDA034)project of the Young Scientists Fund under the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72003211).
文摘Building a unified national market serves as a fundamental support and intrinsic requirement for creating a new development pattern and pursuing high-quality economic development.This paper examines the impact of external demand shocks and domestic market segmentation on China's economic growth and economic structure.It further discusses the potential role of establishing a unified national market in promoting the high-quality development of China's economy.Based on the dynamic quantitative spatial general equilibrium model,this paper characterizes the relationships among external demand shocks,market segmentation,economic growth,and economic structure within a unified theoretical framework.lt accounts for major macroeconomic phenomena observed in China before and after the 2008 global financial crisis,such as the initial rise and subsequent decline in the economic growth rate and the transition from imbalance to balance in industrial structure,income distribution structure,and consumption-saving structure.The study finds that domestic market segmentation exacerbates the negative effects of shrinking external demand on economic growth and economic structure,while a unified national market can reduce the extent of decline in the economic growth rate by two-thirds.This paper further estimates the potential impacts of reducing segmentation in product and labor markets on economic growth and social welfare,and finds that product market integration has a more significant effect on promoting economic growth,while labor market integration is more beneficial for improving social welfare.Both help to facilitate high-quality economic rebalancing.The policy implication of this paper lies in that developing a unified national market has a great potential to drive economic growth and economic rebalancing.Reform is needed to unleash institutional dividends,enabling regions to shift from"segmentation"to"regional division of labor,"and facilitating high-quality economic development.
文摘Both academia and actual economic sectors have certain misunderstandings regarding the development of China＇s open economy. Since its accession to the WTO, China has in fact had an open economy and not an ＂export-oriented＂ economy. China＇s trade imbalance in the global economy is merely a result of economic disparities between the world＇s more- and less- developed regions combined with the rational optimization of resources. The current situation, wherein China appears to be heavily export-oriented, stems naturally from the real economy moving towards a dynamic equilibrium against a backdrop of economic globalization and deepening international specialization. We have concluded that domestic consumption and external demand reinforce each other, and the development of an open economy in China is therefore not at odds with expanding domestic consumption.
基金a research product of the CASS Innovation Project "Urbanization,Structural Effects and China's Economic Growth Model"
文摘To study the relationship between under-urbanization and international trade, we set up a model of the transfer of surplus rural labor in an open economy using 1995-2010 data from 40 countries and regions where industrialization was incomplete. Our findings indicate that if, in an open economy, there is a substantial labor surplus and in which domestic goods and services can be sold to foreign markets, there will be a significantly positive correlation between the net export ratio and the degree to which urbanization lags behind industrialization; countries or regions with higher marketization level, lower urban unemployment rate and poorer public health facilities are more likely to be under- urbanized; and an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between under-urbanization and percapita GDR
