The coexistence of the slowing-down economy and the buoyant employment market has been the pattern in China in recent years, and the service sector has played an important role in this regard. This paper uses empirica...The coexistence of the slowing-down economy and the buoyant employment market has been the pattern in China in recent years, and the service sector has played an important role in this regard. This paper uses empirical analysis to prove that the service sector has a long-term mechanism to promote employment growth： first, the verification of the Baumol-Fuchs hypothesis shows that the income elasticity of demand for services in China is greater than 1. As the current development of the services is lagging behind, this sector has great development potential. Second, the revised employment equation shows that the employment elasticity of the service sector is much higher than that of the industrial sector, and its employment adhesiveness is stronger as well. The employment of the service sector can not only create more jobs for the national economy, but also help stabilize the job market. The employment pressure in China is mainly caused by migrant workers and college graduates. To solve the employment problems of these two groups, China has to promote the development of traditional services and speed up the upgrading of emerging services at the same time, and should neglect neither. This paper provides recommendations accordingly.展开更多
Reasonable industrial structure can promote the benign development of employment structure, and the coordination of the employment structure but also for industrial restructuring and upgrading to lay a solid foundatio...Reasonable industrial structure can promote the benign development of employment structure, and the coordination of the employment structure but also for industrial restructuring and upgrading to lay a solid foundation. This article take Yulin as an example, uses 1990-2014 year three industrial output value and the employment population statistical data, uses the statistics gauging device that has conducted the quantitative investigation to the Yulin industrial structure and the employment structure relations. First, this paper describes the evolution process of Yulin’s industrial structure and employment structure. Secondly, it uses the correlation analysis to confirm the strong correlation between Yulin’s industrial structure and employment structure, then, from the industrial structure deviation and employment elasticity, and the second industry, the first industry, labor surplus. Finally, according to the research income, gives the rational distribution of industrial layout to promote employment growh in the third industry and the policy recommendations.展开更多
Since China＇s reform and opening up, the life expectancy of the population has prolonged. As a result, the trend of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The time was pushed back when young workers enter...Since China＇s reform and opening up, the life expectancy of the population has prolonged. As a result, the trend of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The time was pushed back when young workers entered the labor market, while the phenomenon was common that the elderly who should have retired were still engaged in working. Therefore, the retirement age shall be subjected to an imperative delay. In the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the central government proposed the ＂formulation of gradual delay retirement scheme ＂, which triggered a widespread concern among all sectors in the society. Support and opposition to delay of retirement focus on the impact made by extension of retirement age on the employment. The youth employment, however, is still the issue of social concemThis paper makes a systematic study on the controversy of the relevant scholars, and makes a detailed investigation of the reasons behind the various viewpoints, which is beneficial to the judgment of the rationality between the two parties of the dispute, and then seeks the solution to the problem.展开更多
The changes in labor supply and demand are important factors affecting economic growth.The purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends in China's labor supply and demand during the 13 th Five-Year P...The changes in labor supply and demand are important factors affecting economic growth.The purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends in China's labor supply and demand during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period and the longer period in the future.The scale and structure of the annual new entrants of labor force are predicted by accounting the numbers who are leaving from various stages of education.while trends of labor demand are predicted according to employment elasticity from the experience of industrialization of developed countries. The results show that, during the 13 th FiveYear Plan period.the scale of the new added labor would decrease slightly, with an average annual increment of around 15.68 million. At the same time.labor demand would increase steadily, with annually 15.42 million employment opportunities. Labor supply and demand would be roughly balanced; however,there would be increasing structural contradictions of the labor market.Based on the analysis of labor supply and demand,we provide an estimation of the unemployment scale of the 40's and 50's generations,migrant workers and college graduates,and discuss policy suggestions on promoting employment of college graduates.展开更多
基金supported by the Renmin University of China Research Fund Project(Grant No.10XNJ015)the outcomes of the Fourth China Macroeconomic Forum 2013 of Renmin University of China
文摘The coexistence of the slowing-down economy and the buoyant employment market has been the pattern in China in recent years, and the service sector has played an important role in this regard. This paper uses empirical analysis to prove that the service sector has a long-term mechanism to promote employment growth： first, the verification of the Baumol-Fuchs hypothesis shows that the income elasticity of demand for services in China is greater than 1. As the current development of the services is lagging behind, this sector has great development potential. Second, the revised employment equation shows that the employment elasticity of the service sector is much higher than that of the industrial sector, and its employment adhesiveness is stronger as well. The employment of the service sector can not only create more jobs for the national economy, but also help stabilize the job market. The employment pressure in China is mainly caused by migrant workers and college graduates. To solve the employment problems of these two groups, China has to promote the development of traditional services and speed up the upgrading of emerging services at the same time, and should neglect neither. This paper provides recommendations accordingly.
文摘Reasonable industrial structure can promote the benign development of employment structure, and the coordination of the employment structure but also for industrial restructuring and upgrading to lay a solid foundation. This article take Yulin as an example, uses 1990-2014 year three industrial output value and the employment population statistical data, uses the statistics gauging device that has conducted the quantitative investigation to the Yulin industrial structure and the employment structure relations. First, this paper describes the evolution process of Yulin’s industrial structure and employment structure. Secondly, it uses the correlation analysis to confirm the strong correlation between Yulin’s industrial structure and employment structure, then, from the industrial structure deviation and employment elasticity, and the second industry, the first industry, labor surplus. Finally, according to the research income, gives the rational distribution of industrial layout to promote employment growh in the third industry and the policy recommendations.
文摘Since China＇s reform and opening up, the life expectancy of the population has prolonged. As a result, the trend of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The time was pushed back when young workers entered the labor market, while the phenomenon was common that the elderly who should have retired were still engaged in working. Therefore, the retirement age shall be subjected to an imperative delay. In the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the central government proposed the ＂formulation of gradual delay retirement scheme ＂, which triggered a widespread concern among all sectors in the society. Support and opposition to delay of retirement focus on the impact made by extension of retirement age on the employment. The youth employment, however, is still the issue of social concemThis paper makes a systematic study on the controversy of the relevant scholars, and makes a detailed investigation of the reasons behind the various viewpoints, which is beneficial to the judgment of the rationality between the two parties of the dispute, and then seeks the solution to the problem.
文摘The changes in labor supply and demand are important factors affecting economic growth.The purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends in China's labor supply and demand during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period and the longer period in the future.The scale and structure of the annual new entrants of labor force are predicted by accounting the numbers who are leaving from various stages of education.while trends of labor demand are predicted according to employment elasticity from the experience of industrialization of developed countries. The results show that, during the 13 th FiveYear Plan period.the scale of the new added labor would decrease slightly, with an average annual increment of around 15.68 million. At the same time.labor demand would increase steadily, with annually 15.42 million employment opportunities. Labor supply and demand would be roughly balanced; however,there would be increasing structural contradictions of the labor market.Based on the analysis of labor supply and demand,we provide an estimation of the unemployment scale of the 40's and 50's generations,migrant workers and college graduates,and discuss policy suggestions on promoting employment of college graduates.
