If the theory of cyclical fluctuation can be applied to modern China, the economic development ofChina in this period can be seen as consisting of several stages. At each stage as well as in the wholeperiod, chosen in...If the theory of cyclical fluctuation can be applied to modern China, the economic development ofChina in this period can be seen as consisting of several stages. At each stage as well as in the wholeperiod, chosen index system is likely to help measure the growth rate. By vertical and horizontal com-parison, this paper will try to settle the disputes on China’s modern economic development.展开更多
This paper first summarizes China＇s economic growth rate fluctuations over the past 60 years since 1949 and examines the new developments in China＇s economic structure behind these fluctuations since reform and open...This paper first summarizes China＇s economic growth rate fluctuations over the past 60 years since 1949 and examines the new developments in China＇s economic structure behind these fluctuations since reform and opening-up in the late 1970s.In tackling the global financial crisis,China is embracing a new economic cycle and must draw upon its economic history to prolong the upward momentum in the new cycle.To do so means maintaining an appropriate growth rate in the new cycle.This paper also analyzes the importance urbanization and the housing sector will play in the new cycle and how to address rising housing prices.展开更多
The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model ...The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5<sup>th</sup> information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6<sup>th</sup> LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4<sup>th</sup> Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.展开更多
The recession and revitalization of old industrial cities concerns urban industrial evolution and its characteristics. Based on the theory of evolutionary resilience, we developed an analytical framework for the indus...The recession and revitalization of old industrial cities concerns urban industrial evolution and its characteristics. Based on the theory of evolutionary resilience, we developed an analytical framework for the industrial structure evolution of old industrial cities, and applied the framework to a case study in Shenyang. The following conclusions are drawn. First, since 1978, Shenyang's industrial growth capacity has shown fluctuation between ‘contraction-expansion'. As the secondary industry has a much stronger expansionary and contractionary capacity for growth, this results in lacking stability leading to industrial structure transformation. Second, since 1999, the orientation towards a high-end manufacturing industry in Shenyang has weakened, and the evolution of the new and old growth path is characterized by low-end orientation. Third, since 2007, Shenyang's industrial innovation output capacity has dropped sharply which has been significantly affected by scientific and technological personnel and enterprise-owed science and technology institutions and to a less extent by R&D expenditure. We applied the resilience theory to study the industrial evolution of an old industrial city, explored new study perspectives on industrial evolution and verified the applicability of the resilience theory. This paper provides a scientific reference for understanding the recent deceleration in economic growth in the Northeast old industrial base, and for exploring new paths toward revitalization.展开更多
Under the global economy,classical economic doctrines cannot reflect every aspect of the country’s economic competitiveness as non-traditional factors of economic development play an equally important role in achievi...Under the global economy,classical economic doctrines cannot reflect every aspect of the country’s economic competitiveness as non-traditional factors of economic development play an equally important role in achieving the country’s economic goals.In the view of the mentioned,knowledge and innovation are essential factors of economic development at the present stage.Consequently,at the present stage,in the process of global competitiveness,the study of innovative economics as a factor of self-establishment is also relevant for the countries with limited natural resources.Thus,the urgency and necessity of researching the existing issue are conditioned by the complex study of the existing economic,political,and institutional factors.Despite theoretical estimates,in the Georgian economic literature today there is practically no comprehensive research and analysis on the opportunities for the development of innovative economics in the country,on the basis of which the formation of the innovative economics should be carried out in Georgia.The goals of the research are to study and analyze the potential and role of Georgia’s opportunities for the development of innovative economics and to determine its impact on the economic development of the country in the process of integration of the modern global economy.展开更多
The stress tests are based on macroeconomic variables for the estimations of the results.However,there are other factors that may influence them.This paper studies the influence of the balance sheet structure in the N...The stress tests are based on macroeconomic variables for the estimations of the results.However,there are other factors that may influence them.This paper studies the influence of the balance sheet structure in the NPL and the loss caused by the NPL using econometric models.The objective is to research how they affect the aggregates in the balance sheet to the delay in payment and the the provision for impairment,distinguishing these effects according to the economic cycle,so that can be applied to the stress test.The results show that the Balance sheet structure is important in delinquency and losses caused by it,especially in respect of stockholders'funds,ECB resources and the account Non-current assets held for sale.It also highlights the influence of the economic cycle and the different behavior of the NPL and the losses due to default with respect to the same explanatory variables.展开更多
Foreign capital constitutes a vital force in participating in the economic cycles of major countries,and serves as a key barometer for observing their economic transformations.Foreign capital in China includes both fo...Foreign capital constitutes a vital force in participating in the economic cycles of major countries,and serves as a key barometer for observing their economic transformations.Foreign capital in China includes both foreign direct investment(FDI)and foreign funds participating in investments in the domestic capital markets.Since 2024,foreign investment in China has experienced significant fluctuations,with withdrawal by some prominent enterprises drawing substantial market attention.Although the latest round of the US tariff tension has eased,its impacts may still influence the future allocation of foreign capital in China.Nonetheless,the recent dynamics of foreign capital in China present both opportunities and challenges.展开更多
文摘If the theory of cyclical fluctuation can be applied to modern China, the economic development ofChina in this period can be seen as consisting of several stages. At each stage as well as in the wholeperiod, chosen index system is likely to help measure the growth rate. By vertical and horizontal com-parison, this paper will try to settle the disputes on China’s modern economic development.
文摘This paper first summarizes China＇s economic growth rate fluctuations over the past 60 years since 1949 and examines the new developments in China＇s economic structure behind these fluctuations since reform and opening-up in the late 1970s.In tackling the global financial crisis,China is embracing a new economic cycle and must draw upon its economic history to prolong the upward momentum in the new cycle.To do so means maintaining an appropriate growth rate in the new cycle.This paper also analyzes the importance urbanization and the housing sector will play in the new cycle and how to address rising housing prices.
文摘The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5<sup>th</sup> information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6<sup>th</sup> LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4<sup>th</sup> Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41571152,41771179,41630749,41601124)the Key Deployment Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.ZDBS-SSW-SQC)135 Planning and Featured Services Projects of IGA,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.Y6H2091001)
文摘The recession and revitalization of old industrial cities concerns urban industrial evolution and its characteristics. Based on the theory of evolutionary resilience, we developed an analytical framework for the industrial structure evolution of old industrial cities, and applied the framework to a case study in Shenyang. The following conclusions are drawn. First, since 1978, Shenyang's industrial growth capacity has shown fluctuation between ‘contraction-expansion'. As the secondary industry has a much stronger expansionary and contractionary capacity for growth, this results in lacking stability leading to industrial structure transformation. Second, since 1999, the orientation towards a high-end manufacturing industry in Shenyang has weakened, and the evolution of the new and old growth path is characterized by low-end orientation. Third, since 2007, Shenyang's industrial innovation output capacity has dropped sharply which has been significantly affected by scientific and technological personnel and enterprise-owed science and technology institutions and to a less extent by R&D expenditure. We applied the resilience theory to study the industrial evolution of an old industrial city, explored new study perspectives on industrial evolution and verified the applicability of the resilience theory. This paper provides a scientific reference for understanding the recent deceleration in economic growth in the Northeast old industrial base, and for exploring new paths toward revitalization.
文摘Under the global economy,classical economic doctrines cannot reflect every aspect of the country’s economic competitiveness as non-traditional factors of economic development play an equally important role in achieving the country’s economic goals.In the view of the mentioned,knowledge and innovation are essential factors of economic development at the present stage.Consequently,at the present stage,in the process of global competitiveness,the study of innovative economics as a factor of self-establishment is also relevant for the countries with limited natural resources.Thus,the urgency and necessity of researching the existing issue are conditioned by the complex study of the existing economic,political,and institutional factors.Despite theoretical estimates,in the Georgian economic literature today there is practically no comprehensive research and analysis on the opportunities for the development of innovative economics in the country,on the basis of which the formation of the innovative economics should be carried out in Georgia.The goals of the research are to study and analyze the potential and role of Georgia’s opportunities for the development of innovative economics and to determine its impact on the economic development of the country in the process of integration of the modern global economy.
文摘The stress tests are based on macroeconomic variables for the estimations of the results.However,there are other factors that may influence them.This paper studies the influence of the balance sheet structure in the NPL and the loss caused by the NPL using econometric models.The objective is to research how they affect the aggregates in the balance sheet to the delay in payment and the the provision for impairment,distinguishing these effects according to the economic cycle,so that can be applied to the stress test.The results show that the Balance sheet structure is important in delinquency and losses caused by it,especially in respect of stockholders'funds,ECB resources and the account Non-current assets held for sale.It also highlights the influence of the economic cycle and the different behavior of the NPL and the losses due to default with respect to the same explanatory variables.
文摘Foreign capital constitutes a vital force in participating in the economic cycles of major countries,and serves as a key barometer for observing their economic transformations.Foreign capital in China includes both foreign direct investment(FDI)and foreign funds participating in investments in the domestic capital markets.Since 2024,foreign investment in China has experienced significant fluctuations,with withdrawal by some prominent enterprises drawing substantial market attention.Although the latest round of the US tariff tension has eased,its impacts may still influence the future allocation of foreign capital in China.Nonetheless,the recent dynamics of foreign capital in China present both opportunities and challenges.
