The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Da...The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation.However,research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited.Therefore,this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River,including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia.Using long-term hydrometeorological observations,the change trends of temperature(1933–2020),precipitation(1970–2020),and runoff(1940–2018)were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources.The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation.The temperature changes across three climatic periods(1933–1960,1960–1990,and 1990–2020)indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming.The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020.Moreover,there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades.Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff,seasonal redistribution occurred,with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer,due to the compensation of glacier melting.Moreover,this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing(ETS)method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases,emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia.Therefore,this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning,climate-resilient hydropower development,and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.展开更多
The endurance time (ET) method is a time history based dynamic analysis in which structures are subjected to gradually intensifying excitations and their performances are judged based on their responses at various exc...The endurance time (ET) method is a time history based dynamic analysis in which structures are subjected to gradually intensifying excitations and their performances are judged based on their responses at various excitation levels. Using this method, the computational effort required for estimating probable seismic demand parameters can be reduced by an order of magnitude. Calculation of the maximum displacement or target displacement is a basic requirement for estimating performance based on structural design. The purpose of this paper is to compare the results of the nonlinear ET method with the nonlinear static pushover (NSP) method of FEMA 356 by evaluating performances and target displacements of steel frames. This study will lead to a deeper insight into the capabilities and limitations of the ET method. The results are further compared with those of the standard nonlinear response history analysis. We conclude that results from the ET analysis are in proper agreement with those from standard procedures.展开更多
The ELECTRE(ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalite)method has gained widespread recognition as one of the most effective multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)methods.Its versatility allows it to be applied in a wid...The ELECTRE(ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalite)method has gained widespread recognition as one of the most effective multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)methods.Its versatility allows it to be applied in a wide range of areas such as engineering,economics,business,environmental management and many others.This paper aims to provide an overview of the ELECTRE method,including its fundamental concepts,applications,advantages,and limitations.At its core,the ELECTRE method is an outranking family of MCDM techniques,which allows for the direct comparison of alternatives based on a set of criteria.The method takes into account the preferences and importance of decision-makers and generates a ranking of the alternatives based on their relative strengths and weaknesses.The ELECTRE method is a powerful tool for decision-making,and its applicability to a wide range of fields demonstrates its versatility and adaptability.By understanding its concepts,applications,merits,and demerits,decision-makers can use the ELECTRE method to make informed and effective decisions in a variety of contexts.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(W2412135).
文摘The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation.However,research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited.Therefore,this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River,including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia.Using long-term hydrometeorological observations,the change trends of temperature(1933–2020),precipitation(1970–2020),and runoff(1940–2018)were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources.The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation.The temperature changes across three climatic periods(1933–1960,1960–1990,and 1990–2020)indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming.The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020.Moreover,there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades.Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff,seasonal redistribution occurred,with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer,due to the compensation of glacier melting.Moreover,this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing(ETS)method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases,emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia.Therefore,this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning,climate-resilient hydropower development,and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.
文摘The endurance time (ET) method is a time history based dynamic analysis in which structures are subjected to gradually intensifying excitations and their performances are judged based on their responses at various excitation levels. Using this method, the computational effort required for estimating probable seismic demand parameters can be reduced by an order of magnitude. Calculation of the maximum displacement or target displacement is a basic requirement for estimating performance based on structural design. The purpose of this paper is to compare the results of the nonlinear ET method with the nonlinear static pushover (NSP) method of FEMA 356 by evaluating performances and target displacements of steel frames. This study will lead to a deeper insight into the capabilities and limitations of the ET method. The results are further compared with those of the standard nonlinear response history analysis. We conclude that results from the ET analysis are in proper agreement with those from standard procedures.
文摘The ELECTRE(ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalite)method has gained widespread recognition as one of the most effective multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)methods.Its versatility allows it to be applied in a wide range of areas such as engineering,economics,business,environmental management and many others.This paper aims to provide an overview of the ELECTRE method,including its fundamental concepts,applications,advantages,and limitations.At its core,the ELECTRE method is an outranking family of MCDM techniques,which allows for the direct comparison of alternatives based on a set of criteria.The method takes into account the preferences and importance of decision-makers and generates a ranking of the alternatives based on their relative strengths and weaknesses.The ELECTRE method is a powerful tool for decision-making,and its applicability to a wide range of fields demonstrates its versatility and adaptability.By understanding its concepts,applications,merits,and demerits,decision-makers can use the ELECTRE method to make informed and effective decisions in a variety of contexts.
