Influenced by the layout of seismic network and the location of earthquakes,earthquake catalogs are often incomplete;such incompleteness of earthquake catalogue directly affects the analysis of sequence activity chara...Influenced by the layout of seismic network and the location of earthquakes,earthquake catalogs are often incomplete;such incompleteness of earthquake catalogue directly affects the analysis of sequence activity characteristics.In this paper,the GPU-acceleration-based g template matching method is used to scan the continuous waveforms of Chang Island earthquake swarm in Shandong Province from February 9 to August 20,2017.In total,15,286 earthquakes events were detected,which was more than 6 times compared with those in network catalogue and thus reduced the magnitude of completeness from 1.0 to 0.5.Based on the intergrated catalogue of earthquakes,the characteristics of Chang Island earthquake swarm were then analyzed using the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences(ETAS)model.The stochastic components in the ETAS model are used as a proxy for possible earthquake triggered by external forces(fluids).The results show that the proportion of earthquakes triggered by external forces of Chang Island swarm increases gradually(from 31.9%to 63.5%)and then decreases.The latter stage of swarm development is mainly affected by the self-excitation of earthquakes,suggesting that the fluids play an important role in the development of the Chang Island swarm.However,the triggering intensity of fluids to microseismicity is divergent in different periods,which may be related to the process of fluid permeation.展开更多
In order to reveal the relationship between water injection in mine wells in the Zigong area and seismicity, we divide the historical earthquakes of ML ≥ 1.2 into 3 phases according to seismicity behavior, and the ET...In order to reveal the relationship between water injection in mine wells in the Zigong area and seismicity, we divide the historical earthquakes of ML ≥ 1.2 into 3 phases according to seismicity behavior, and the ETAS model parameters are then inversed by the POWELL method. The results show that phase 1 and 2, in which there is no water injection, have moderate-to-low ratio of background earthquakes （40 % - 50 % ）, and aftershocks are relatively less for a single earthquake sequence. In phase 3, where there is water injection, the aftershocks triggered by foreshocks dominate （ 93. 1% ）, and background earthquakes amount only to 6. 9 %, less than those of phase 1 and 2. The results conflict with the existing cognition. To resolve this problem, we propose that the occurrence ratio of background earthquakes in unit time, that is, the p value in ETAS model is used as an indicator of water injection triggered earthquakes. Compared to the first two phases, phase 3 has the largest u value, which illustrates that the water injection has an obvious triggering effect on earthquakes of this region.展开更多
To provide long-term simulations of climate change at higher resolution, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are nested in global climate models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evaluate the Eta RCM simulations dri...To provide long-term simulations of climate change at higher resolution, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are nested in global climate models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evaluate the Eta RCM simulations driven by three global models, the HadGEM2-ES, BESM, and MIROC5, for the present period, 1961-1990. The RCM domain covers South America, Central America, and Caribbean. These simulations will be used for assessment of climate change projections in the region. Maximum temperatures are generally underestimated in the domain, in particular by MIROC5 driven simulations, in summer and winter seasons. Larger spread among the simulations was found in the minimum temperatures, which showed mixed signs of errors. The spatial correlations of temperature simulations against the CRU observations show better agreement for the MIROC5 driven simulations. The nested simulations underestimate precipitation in large areas over the continent in austral summer, whereas in winter overestimate occurs in southern Amazonia, and underestimate in southern Brazil and eastern coast of Northeast Brazil. The annual cycle of the near-surface temperature is underestimated in all model simulations, in all regions in Brazil, and in most of the year. The temperature and precipitation frequency distributions reveal that the RCM and GCM simulations contain more extreme values than the CRU observations. Evaluations of the climatic extreme indicators show that in general hot days, warm nights, and heat waves are increasing in the period, in agreement with observations. The Eta simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES show wet trends in the period, whereas the Eta driven by BESM and by MIROC5 show trends for drier conditions.展开更多
An extraordinary earthquake swarm occurred at Rushan on the Jiaodong Peninsula from October 1, 2013, onwards, and more than 12,000 aftershocks had been detected by December 31, 2015. All the activities of the whole sw...An extraordinary earthquake swarm occurred at Rushan on the Jiaodong Peninsula from October 1, 2013, onwards, and more than 12,000 aftershocks had been detected by December 31, 2015. All the activities of the whole swarm were recorded at the nearest station, RSH, which is located about 12 km from the epicenter. We examine the statistical characteristics of the Rushan swarm in this paper using RSH station data to assess the arrival time difference, ts p, of Pg and Sg phases. A temporary network comprising 18 seismometers was set up on May 6, 2014, within the area of the epicenter; based on the data from this network and use of the double difference method, we determine precise hypocenter locations. As the distribution of relocated sources reveals migration of seismic activity, we applied the mean-shift cluster method to perform clustering analysis on relocated catalogs. The results of this study show that there were at least 16 clusters of seismic activities between May 6, 2014, and June 30, 2014, and that each was characterized by a hypocenter spreading process. We estimated the hydraulic diffusivity, D, of each cluster using envelope curve fitting; the results show that D values range between 1.2 and 3.5 m2/d and that approximate values for clusters on the edge of the source area are lower than those within the central area. We utilize an epidemic-type aftershock sequence （ETAS） model to separate external triggered events from self-excited aftershocks within the Rushan swarm. The estimated parameters for this model suggest that α = 1.156, equiva- lent to sequences induced by fluid-injection, and that the forcing rate （μ） implies just 0.15 events per day. These estimates indicate that around 3% of the events within the swarm were externally triggered. The fact that variation in μ is synchronous with swarm activity implies that pulses in fluid pressure likely drove this series of earthquakes.展开更多
Philippine archipelago (PA) has strong background seismicity,but there is no systematic study of earthquake triggering in this region. There are six earthquakes (M_(w) > 6) occurred between 2018/12/29 and 2019/09/2...Philippine archipelago (PA) has strong background seismicity,but there is no systematic study of earthquake triggering in this region. There are six earthquakes (M_(w) > 6) occurred between 2018/12/29 and 2019/09/29 in PA,which provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the triggering relationship among these events. We calculate the static Coulomb stress changes of the first five events,and find that the local seismicity after the 2018/12/29 M_(w) 7.0 earthquake is mostly associated with positive Coulomb stress changes,including the 2019/05/31 M_(w) 6.1 event,suggesting a possible triggering relationship. However,we cannot rule out the dynamic triggering mechanism,due to increased microseismicity in both positive and negative stress change regions,and an incomplete local catalog,especially right after the first M_(w) 7.0 mainshock. The dynamic stresses from these M_(w) > 6 events are large enough (from 5 kPa to 3532 kPa) to trigger subsequent events,but a lack of seismicity and waveform evidence does not support delayed dynamic triggering among these events,even the shortest time interval is less than 24 hours. In the past 45 years,the released seismic energy shows certain peaks every 5–10 years. However,earthquakes with M_(w) > 6.0 were relatively infrequent between 2004 and 2018 at PA. Hence,it is possible that several regions are relatively late in their earthquake cycles,which would enhance their susceptibility of being triggered by earthquakes at nearby and regional distances.展开更多
Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective...Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040;2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.展开更多
基金sponsored by the National Key R&D Program of China(2016YFE0109300)the Seismological Science and Technology Spark Program(XH18026Y)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(ZR2017QD014)Key R&D Program of Shandong Province(2016GSF120011)
文摘Influenced by the layout of seismic network and the location of earthquakes,earthquake catalogs are often incomplete;such incompleteness of earthquake catalogue directly affects the analysis of sequence activity characteristics.In this paper,the GPU-acceleration-based g template matching method is used to scan the continuous waveforms of Chang Island earthquake swarm in Shandong Province from February 9 to August 20,2017.In total,15,286 earthquakes events were detected,which was more than 6 times compared with those in network catalogue and thus reduced the magnitude of completeness from 1.0 to 0.5.Based on the intergrated catalogue of earthquakes,the characteristics of Chang Island earthquake swarm were then analyzed using the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences(ETAS)model.The stochastic components in the ETAS model are used as a proxy for possible earthquake triggered by external forces(fluids).The results show that the proportion of earthquakes triggered by external forces of Chang Island swarm increases gradually(from 31.9%to 63.5%)and then decreases.The latter stage of swarm development is mainly affected by the self-excitation of earthquakes,suggesting that the fluids play an important role in the development of the Chang Island swarm.However,the triggering intensity of fluids to microseismicity is divergent in different periods,which may be related to the process of fluid permeation.
基金supported by "Study on Strong Earthquake Risk in Southern Region of Longmenshan Fault,Huayingshan Fault and Border Area of Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces",Department of Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration
文摘In order to reveal the relationship between water injection in mine wells in the Zigong area and seismicity, we divide the historical earthquakes of ML ≥ 1.2 into 3 phases according to seismicity behavior, and the ETAS model parameters are then inversed by the POWELL method. The results show that phase 1 and 2, in which there is no water injection, have moderate-to-low ratio of background earthquakes （40 % - 50 % ）, and aftershocks are relatively less for a single earthquake sequence. In phase 3, where there is water injection, the aftershocks triggered by foreshocks dominate （ 93. 1% ）, and background earthquakes amount only to 6. 9 %, less than those of phase 1 and 2. The results conflict with the existing cognition. To resolve this problem, we propose that the occurrence ratio of background earthquakes in unit time, that is, the p value in ETAS model is used as an indicator of water injection triggered earthquakes. Compared to the first two phases, phase 3 has the largest u value, which illustrates that the water injection has an obvious triggering effect on earthquakes of this region.
基金The authors thank:the Brazilian Ministry of Science,Technology,and Innovation for supporting the work through Global Environmental Facility funding(UNDP BRA/05/G31)the Secretariat for Strategic Affairs of the presidency of Brazil for additional funding,Martin Juckes from the British Atmospheric Data Centre for making available HadGEM2-ES dataset+1 种基金and Seita Emori and Tokuta Yokohata from the National Institute for Environmental Studies for making available the MIROC5 dataset.S.C.Cthanks the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development for the grant PQ 308035/2013-5.
文摘To provide long-term simulations of climate change at higher resolution, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are nested in global climate models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evaluate the Eta RCM simulations driven by three global models, the HadGEM2-ES, BESM, and MIROC5, for the present period, 1961-1990. The RCM domain covers South America, Central America, and Caribbean. These simulations will be used for assessment of climate change projections in the region. Maximum temperatures are generally underestimated in the domain, in particular by MIROC5 driven simulations, in summer and winter seasons. Larger spread among the simulations was found in the minimum temperatures, which showed mixed signs of errors. The spatial correlations of temperature simulations against the CRU observations show better agreement for the MIROC5 driven simulations. The nested simulations underestimate precipitation in large areas over the continent in austral summer, whereas in winter overestimate occurs in southern Amazonia, and underestimate in southern Brazil and eastern coast of Northeast Brazil. The annual cycle of the near-surface temperature is underestimated in all model simulations, in all regions in Brazil, and in most of the year. The temperature and precipitation frequency distributions reveal that the RCM and GCM simulations contain more extreme values than the CRU observations. Evaluations of the climatic extreme indicators show that in general hot days, warm nights, and heat waves are increasing in the period, in agreement with observations. The Eta simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES show wet trends in the period, whereas the Eta driven by BESM and by MIROC5 show trends for drier conditions.
基金supported financially by the Science and Technology Development Plan Project of Shandong Province(2014GSF120007)Shandong Earthquake Agency,China Earthquake Administration(SD1250501)
文摘An extraordinary earthquake swarm occurred at Rushan on the Jiaodong Peninsula from October 1, 2013, onwards, and more than 12,000 aftershocks had been detected by December 31, 2015. All the activities of the whole swarm were recorded at the nearest station, RSH, which is located about 12 km from the epicenter. We examine the statistical characteristics of the Rushan swarm in this paper using RSH station data to assess the arrival time difference, ts p, of Pg and Sg phases. A temporary network comprising 18 seismometers was set up on May 6, 2014, within the area of the epicenter; based on the data from this network and use of the double difference method, we determine precise hypocenter locations. As the distribution of relocated sources reveals migration of seismic activity, we applied the mean-shift cluster method to perform clustering analysis on relocated catalogs. The results of this study show that there were at least 16 clusters of seismic activities between May 6, 2014, and June 30, 2014, and that each was characterized by a hypocenter spreading process. We estimated the hydraulic diffusivity, D, of each cluster using envelope curve fitting; the results show that D values range between 1.2 and 3.5 m2/d and that approximate values for clusters on the edge of the source area are lower than those within the central area. We utilize an epidemic-type aftershock sequence （ETAS） model to separate external triggered events from self-excited aftershocks within the Rushan swarm. The estimated parameters for this model suggest that α = 1.156, equiva- lent to sequences induced by fluid-injection, and that the forcing rate （μ） implies just 0.15 events per day. These estimates indicate that around 3% of the events within the swarm were externally triggered. The fact that variation in μ is synchronous with swarm activity implies that pulses in fluid pressure likely drove this series of earthquakes.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41704049,41890813,91628301 and 41974068the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract Nos QYZDY-SSW-DQC005 and 133244KYSB20180029+3 种基金the foundation of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou)under contract No.GML2019ZD0205the foundation of Youth Innovation Promotion Association,Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.YIPA2018385the United States National Science Foundation under contract No.EAR-1736197the Foundation of Science Foundation for the Earthquake Resilience of China Earthquake Administration under contract No.XH20072.
文摘Philippine archipelago (PA) has strong background seismicity,but there is no systematic study of earthquake triggering in this region. There are six earthquakes (M_(w) > 6) occurred between 2018/12/29 and 2019/09/29 in PA,which provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the triggering relationship among these events. We calculate the static Coulomb stress changes of the first five events,and find that the local seismicity after the 2018/12/29 M_(w) 7.0 earthquake is mostly associated with positive Coulomb stress changes,including the 2019/05/31 M_(w) 6.1 event,suggesting a possible triggering relationship. However,we cannot rule out the dynamic triggering mechanism,due to increased microseismicity in both positive and negative stress change regions,and an incomplete local catalog,especially right after the first M_(w) 7.0 mainshock. The dynamic stresses from these M_(w) > 6 events are large enough (from 5 kPa to 3532 kPa) to trigger subsequent events,but a lack of seismicity and waveform evidence does not support delayed dynamic triggering among these events,even the shortest time interval is less than 24 hours. In the past 45 years,the released seismic energy shows certain peaks every 5–10 years. However,earthquakes with M_(w) > 6.0 were relatively infrequent between 2004 and 2018 at PA. Hence,it is possible that several regions are relatively late in their earthquake cycles,which would enhance their susceptibility of being triggered by earthquakes at nearby and regional distances.
基金the Brazilian Ministry of Science,Technology,and Innovation for supporting the work through Global Environmental Facility funding(UNDP BRA/10/G32)the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development(CNPq)for the grants 308035/2013-5 and 400792/2012-5
文摘Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040;2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.
