基于山东省2021年3月—2022年2月1519个气象观测站2 m气温观测数据,对中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统(High Resolution China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System,HRCLDAS)和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五...基于山东省2021年3月—2022年2月1519个气象观测站2 m气温观测数据,对中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统(High Resolution China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System,HRCLDAS)和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代陆面再分析数据集(ERA5-Land)逐小时2 m气温分析的日统计数据(平均气温、最高气温、最低气温)进行对比评估。结果显示:(1)HRCLDAS/ERA5-Land日统计平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的均方根误差分别为0.1/1.2℃、0.6/1.9℃、0.4/1.7℃,表明HRCLDAS具有更高的精度,且在不同地理区域、不同海拔高度的表现均优于ERA5-Land,大部地区的偏差(-0.5~0.5℃)远低于ERA5-Land(-2.0~2.0℃)。(2)两套数据对高温及寒潮过程的监测能力对比评估表明,HRCLDAS能够捕捉到大部分的高温以及寒潮过程,其与观测的高温日数及寒潮日数空间分布较为相似,但对影响范围存在一定的低估;ERA5-Land则只能监测到部分高温及寒潮过程,并对高温日数与寒潮日数存在严重的低估。展开更多
利用全国40个地面台站的观测资料对ERA5及ERA5-Land两种不同空间分辨率的再分析资料开展了地面风速误差评估研究,结果表明:ERA5和ERA5-Land资料多年平均风速偏差的平均值分别为0.08 m s^(−1)、-0.06 m s^(−1),偏差的最大值分别为0.46 m ...利用全国40个地面台站的观测资料对ERA5及ERA5-Land两种不同空间分辨率的再分析资料开展了地面风速误差评估研究,结果表明:ERA5和ERA5-Land资料多年平均风速偏差的平均值分别为0.08 m s^(−1)、-0.06 m s^(−1),偏差的最大值分别为0.46 m s^(−1)、-0.19 m s^(−1),相对偏差的平均值为4.4%、-2.0%,相对偏差的最大值分别为33.0%、-10.1%;月平均风速线性拟合方程的斜率分别为0.93、0.97,截距分别为0.29 m s^(−1)、0.02 m s^(−1),相关系数分别为0.98、0.99;月平均风速均方根误差的平均值分别为0.17 m s^(−1)、0.14 m s^(−1),均方根误差的最大值分别为0.49 m s^(−1)、0.22 m s^(−1),相对均方根误差的平均值为7.4%、5.7%,相对均方根误差的最大值分别为35.2%、13.3%。ERA5-Land高分辨率资料地面风速误差相对较低,有利于提高风能资源评估的准确性。展开更多
ERA5-Land再分析产品作为全球重要的地表要素数据,其在干旱监测中的误差评估对进一步提升干旱预警能力和降低灾害风险具有重要意义。利用1981—2020年国家气象信息中心逐日降水格网数据,结合标准化降水指数(Standardized Precipitation ...ERA5-Land再分析产品作为全球重要的地表要素数据,其在干旱监测中的误差评估对进一步提升干旱预警能力和降低灾害风险具有重要意义。利用1981—2020年国家气象信息中心逐日降水格网数据,结合标准化降水指数(Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI),定量评价欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)的第五代再分析陆地产品(Land component of the Fifth Generation of European Reanalysis,ERA5-Land)降水资料在黄河流域及其子流域干旱监测中的误差特征,探讨ERA5-Land降水产品在不同地区和不同时间尺度下对降水的高(低)估以及对干旱特征的描述能力。结果表明:ERA5-Land降水产品在黄河流域对降水量存在明显高估现象,上游地区降水量高估误差最大,中游次之,而下游相对较低。在不同时间尺度下,ERA5-Land降水产品对干湿状况的反映能力存在明显差异,并随时间尺度的增加,差异也增加。针对黄河流域干旱事件,ERA5-Land降水产品存在明显的干旱频次高估和干旱历时低估。上游地区主要以干旱烈度和严重度高估为主,中下游则存在明显的干旱烈度和严重度低估现象。虽然ERA5-Land降水产品能够有效捕获典型干旱事件的空间分布,但对不同等级干旱面积的描述并不准确。因此,使用ERA5-Land降水产品数据进行干旱监测时,需特别注意其高估或低估现象。展开更多
The northernmost region of South America has great potential for wind energy production and is a strategic area for the energy transition.We analysed data from ERA5-Land global reanalysis from 1980 to 2020 to determin...The northernmost region of South America has great potential for wind energy production and is a strategic area for the energy transition.We analysed data from ERA5-Land global reanalysis from 1980 to 2020 to determine the wind power potential in this area.Our aim was to identify areas with a high potential for wind energy that could be used to supply energy in case of drought in the region or increases in fuel prices.We compared data from 19 meteorological stations located in Colombia with ERA5-Land reanalysis data to generate reliable information for the feasibility and operation of wind farms.According to our analysis,the Colombian Caribbean and Coastal Plain have monthly average wind speeds at 90 m ranging from 4.85 to 10.34 m/s and 3.79 to 6.62 m/s,respectively.Based on wind power density calculations,these regions have the highest wind power density in our study,with a monthly average of between 250 and 399 W/m^(2).The Caribbean Region had a 69%increase in wind power density from January to July compared with the annual average.The wind power density in the plains increased from January to March,while the Mountain Region had higher anomalies from May to October.The Alta Guajira and ParaguanáPeninsula have great potential to generate wind energy due to their privileged geographical location.Although ERA5 offers valuable information about wind availability in time and space,it cannot represent the influence of local effects on wind patterns for the Mountain Region.展开更多
Tajikistan,a mountainous country and a vital water tower for Central Asia,is becoming increasingly vulnerable to snow drought under climate change,threatening its snow-and glacier-fed streamflow.Yet,the impacts of sno...Tajikistan,a mountainous country and a vital water tower for Central Asia,is becoming increasingly vulnerable to snow drought under climate change,threatening its snow-and glacier-fed streamflow.Yet,the impacts of snow drought on the regional hydrology remain insufficiently understood.In this study,we integrated multisource data,including the Fifth Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis for Land Applications(ERA5-Land)data and hydrological station data,to systematically assess the snow drought patterns and their impacts on streamflow during 1950–2023.We identified snow drought events based on precipitation and snow fraction anomalies relative to climatological means and classified them into warm snow drought,dry snow drought,and warm&dry snow drought.The results revealed that snow drought was a recurrent phenomenon,occurring in 51.70%of the years during the study period,with warm&dry snow drought accounting for 21.90%of the total events.Both the frequency and severity exhibited pronounced spatial variability,largely governed by the elevation and snowfall fraction.Specifically,the frequency of warm snow drought was negatively correlated with the snowfall fraction,decreasing on average by 0.20 per unit increase in snowfall fraction,whereas the frequency of dry snow drought was positively correlated,increasing by 0.07 per unit increase.The streamflow analysis results demonstrated that snow drought typically reduced the warm-season discharge by 5.00%–18.00%in certain rivers,thereby exacerbating the water stress during the dry season.The results of this study advance our understanding by explicitly linking the types of snow drought to hydrological responses in Central Asia’s high mountains,providing a scientific basis for climate adaptation and sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan.展开更多
文摘基于山东省2021年3月—2022年2月1519个气象观测站2 m气温观测数据,对中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统(High Resolution China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System,HRCLDAS)和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代陆面再分析数据集(ERA5-Land)逐小时2 m气温分析的日统计数据(平均气温、最高气温、最低气温)进行对比评估。结果显示:(1)HRCLDAS/ERA5-Land日统计平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的均方根误差分别为0.1/1.2℃、0.6/1.9℃、0.4/1.7℃,表明HRCLDAS具有更高的精度,且在不同地理区域、不同海拔高度的表现均优于ERA5-Land,大部地区的偏差(-0.5~0.5℃)远低于ERA5-Land(-2.0~2.0℃)。(2)两套数据对高温及寒潮过程的监测能力对比评估表明,HRCLDAS能够捕捉到大部分的高温以及寒潮过程,其与观测的高温日数及寒潮日数空间分布较为相似,但对影响范围存在一定的低估;ERA5-Land则只能监测到部分高温及寒潮过程,并对高温日数与寒潮日数存在严重的低估。
文摘利用全国40个地面台站的观测资料对ERA5及ERA5-Land两种不同空间分辨率的再分析资料开展了地面风速误差评估研究,结果表明:ERA5和ERA5-Land资料多年平均风速偏差的平均值分别为0.08 m s^(−1)、-0.06 m s^(−1),偏差的最大值分别为0.46 m s^(−1)、-0.19 m s^(−1),相对偏差的平均值为4.4%、-2.0%,相对偏差的最大值分别为33.0%、-10.1%;月平均风速线性拟合方程的斜率分别为0.93、0.97,截距分别为0.29 m s^(−1)、0.02 m s^(−1),相关系数分别为0.98、0.99;月平均风速均方根误差的平均值分别为0.17 m s^(−1)、0.14 m s^(−1),均方根误差的最大值分别为0.49 m s^(−1)、0.22 m s^(−1),相对均方根误差的平均值为7.4%、5.7%,相对均方根误差的最大值分别为35.2%、13.3%。ERA5-Land高分辨率资料地面风速误差相对较低,有利于提高风能资源评估的准确性。
文摘ERA5-Land再分析产品作为全球重要的地表要素数据,其在干旱监测中的误差评估对进一步提升干旱预警能力和降低灾害风险具有重要意义。利用1981—2020年国家气象信息中心逐日降水格网数据,结合标准化降水指数(Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI),定量评价欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)的第五代再分析陆地产品(Land component of the Fifth Generation of European Reanalysis,ERA5-Land)降水资料在黄河流域及其子流域干旱监测中的误差特征,探讨ERA5-Land降水产品在不同地区和不同时间尺度下对降水的高(低)估以及对干旱特征的描述能力。结果表明:ERA5-Land降水产品在黄河流域对降水量存在明显高估现象,上游地区降水量高估误差最大,中游次之,而下游相对较低。在不同时间尺度下,ERA5-Land降水产品对干湿状况的反映能力存在明显差异,并随时间尺度的增加,差异也增加。针对黄河流域干旱事件,ERA5-Land降水产品存在明显的干旱频次高估和干旱历时低估。上游地区主要以干旱烈度和严重度高估为主,中下游则存在明显的干旱烈度和严重度低估现象。虽然ERA5-Land降水产品能够有效捕获典型干旱事件的空间分布,但对不同等级干旱面积的描述并不准确。因此,使用ERA5-Land降水产品数据进行干旱监测时,需特别注意其高估或低估现象。
基金supporting this study through the CON7872011 project.
文摘The northernmost region of South America has great potential for wind energy production and is a strategic area for the energy transition.We analysed data from ERA5-Land global reanalysis from 1980 to 2020 to determine the wind power potential in this area.Our aim was to identify areas with a high potential for wind energy that could be used to supply energy in case of drought in the region or increases in fuel prices.We compared data from 19 meteorological stations located in Colombia with ERA5-Land reanalysis data to generate reliable information for the feasibility and operation of wind farms.According to our analysis,the Colombian Caribbean and Coastal Plain have monthly average wind speeds at 90 m ranging from 4.85 to 10.34 m/s and 3.79 to 6.62 m/s,respectively.Based on wind power density calculations,these regions have the highest wind power density in our study,with a monthly average of between 250 and 399 W/m^(2).The Caribbean Region had a 69%increase in wind power density from January to July compared with the annual average.The wind power density in the plains increased from January to March,while the Mountain Region had higher anomalies from May to October.The Alta Guajira and ParaguanáPeninsula have great potential to generate wind energy due to their privileged geographical location.Although ERA5 offers valuable information about wind availability in time and space,it cannot represent the influence of local effects on wind patterns for the Mountain Region.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project of China(2025YFE0103300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(W2412135)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2024D01A143,2025D01B165)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(GZC20250226)the S&T Innovation and Development Project of Information Institution of Ministry of Emergency Management,China(2024506).
文摘Tajikistan,a mountainous country and a vital water tower for Central Asia,is becoming increasingly vulnerable to snow drought under climate change,threatening its snow-and glacier-fed streamflow.Yet,the impacts of snow drought on the regional hydrology remain insufficiently understood.In this study,we integrated multisource data,including the Fifth Generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis for Land Applications(ERA5-Land)data and hydrological station data,to systematically assess the snow drought patterns and their impacts on streamflow during 1950–2023.We identified snow drought events based on precipitation and snow fraction anomalies relative to climatological means and classified them into warm snow drought,dry snow drought,and warm&dry snow drought.The results revealed that snow drought was a recurrent phenomenon,occurring in 51.70%of the years during the study period,with warm&dry snow drought accounting for 21.90%of the total events.Both the frequency and severity exhibited pronounced spatial variability,largely governed by the elevation and snowfall fraction.Specifically,the frequency of warm snow drought was negatively correlated with the snowfall fraction,decreasing on average by 0.20 per unit increase in snowfall fraction,whereas the frequency of dry snow drought was positively correlated,increasing by 0.07 per unit increase.The streamflow analysis results demonstrated that snow drought typically reduced the warm-season discharge by 5.00%–18.00%in certain rivers,thereby exacerbating the water stress during the dry season.The results of this study advance our understanding by explicitly linking the types of snow drought to hydrological responses in Central Asia’s high mountains,providing a scientific basis for climate adaptation and sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan.
