The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)....The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of ENSO.Based on data during 1982-2022,results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback,in which the positive(negative)phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño(La Niña)in boreal winter via an earlier(delayed)seasonal cycle transition and larger(smaller)annual mean.The magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than±0.3◦C,regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity analysis.Results reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO,which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.展开更多
El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation an...El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further investigation.To investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 models.The results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the future.The higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in variability.Carbon flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9%compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through temperature.This occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.展开更多
The Mediterranean region in central Chile is experiencing a significant decrease in precipitation due to climate change and the dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO).Droughts have increased in recent deca...The Mediterranean region in central Chile is experiencing a significant decrease in precipitation due to climate change and the dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO).Droughts have increased in recent decades,~with the most severe and longest drought of the last millennium occurring since 2010 in central Chile.The impact of ongoing water scarcity is leading to significant drought-related declines in tree growth and forest dieback in the Mediterranean region.A deep understanding of how tree species respond to climate is crucial to accurately predict how forests will respond to climate change.We examined the growth responses to climate of three endemic and threatened tree species of the Mediterranean forests of central Chile,Nothofagus macrocarpa,Cryptocarya alba and Persea lingue,in a protected area.We observed that the growth of all three species was highly dependent on water availability and ENSO,and that the evergreen species C.alba and P.lingue increased their sensitivity to hydroclimate more than the deciduous species N.macrocarpa.These relationships were consistent across much of southern South America,highlighting the dependence of these species on water availability at large geographic scales.We found that there is a relationship between local water availability and ENSO that has intensified temporally and expanded geographically in recent decades.The xerophyllous species C.alba showed greater resistance and increasing resilience to severe droughts,while P.lingue and N.macrocarpa showed greater growth decline during droughts,possibly due to their preference for wetter environments.Our results highlight the crucial role of ENSO-driven water availability and drought in limiting tree growth and threatening the conservation of Mediterranean forests in central Chile.展开更多
In this study,we investigate the complex relationship between western disturbances(WDs),the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),and extreme precipitation events(EPEs) in the western Himalaya(WH) during the extended wi...In this study,we investigate the complex relationship between western disturbances(WDs),the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),and extreme precipitation events(EPEs) in the western Himalaya(WH) during the extended winter season(November–March).WDs west of WH coincide with 97% of recorded EPEs,contributing substantially(32% in winter,11% annually) to total precipitation within WH.WDs are 6% less frequent and 4% more intense during El Ni?o than La Ni?a to the west of WH.During El Ni?o(compared to La Ni?a) years,WDs co-occurring with EPEs are significantly more intense and associated with 17% higher moisture transport over “WH box”(the selected region where most of the winter precipitation over WH occurs).This results in twice the EPE frequency during El Ni?o periods than La Ni?a periods.A substantial southward shift(~180 km) of the subtropical jet(STJ) axis during El Ni?o brings WD tracks further south towards their primary moisture sources,especially the Arabian Sea.We have shown that WDs that are both more intense and pass to the south of their typical latitudes have higher levels of vertically integrated moisture flux(VIMF)within them.VIMF convergence in the most intense pentile of WDs is 5.7 times higher than in the weakest,and is 3.4 times higher in the second lowest latitude pentile than in the highest.Overall,this study demonstrates a direct link between changes in the latitudinal position and intensity of WDs associated with the winter STJ,and moisture convergence,which leads to the occurrence of EPEs over WH during ENSO phases.展开更多
A prior observational study indicated an asymmetric link between sea surface temperature(SST)in the Tasman Sea and ENSO during austral summer.Specifically,El Niño is associated with a dipolar SST anomaly pattern,...A prior observational study indicated an asymmetric link between sea surface temperature(SST)in the Tasman Sea and ENSO during austral summer.Specifically,El Niño is associated with a dipolar SST anomaly pattern,featuring warming in the northwest and cooling in the southeast,whereas La Niña corresponds to basin-scale warming.This study employs the experiments of coupled models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)to assess ENSO’s impact on Tasman Sea SST.While all 15 models capture the observed dipolar SST anomalies(SSTAs)in the Tasman Sea during El Niño years,only 7 models capture the basin-scale warmth in the Tasman Sea during La Niña years.Consequently,the models are bifurcated into two groups:group-one models yield one physically reasonable asymmetric connection as observed,including the asymmetry of oceanic heat transport,especially the Ekman meridional transport anomalies induced by zonal wind stress driven by the asymmetric atmospheric circulation over the Tasman Sea.However,due to abnormal responses to ENSO and systematic biases in model simulations,including jet and storm tracks,oceanic heat fluxes,ocean currents,and SST,the group-two models fail to reproduce the asymmetric connection between the Tasman Sea and ENSO.This study not only validates the observational asymmetric connection of SSTAs in the Tasman Sea with respect to the two opposite ENSO phases,but also provides evidence and clues to reduce the bias in group-two models.展开更多
Tanzania is mainly subject to a bimodal rainfall pattern,characterized by two distinct seasons:the long rains,occurring from March to May,and the short rains,which typically take place from October to December(OND).Sh...Tanzania is mainly subject to a bimodal rainfall pattern,characterized by two distinct seasons:the long rains,occurring from March to May,and the short rains,which typically take place from October to December(OND).Short rains are usually less intense but still significantly influence local agriculture.Therefore,with station-based observations and reanalysis data,the current paper examines the interannual variability of OND precipitation in Tanzania from 1993 to 2022 and explores the possible impacts from El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)as well as the mechanisms.It is found that the Tanzania OND precipitation is above(below)normal in 1997,2006,2011,and 2019(1993,1998,2005,and 2016).The composite difference between wet(dry)years and the climatology indicates that the anomalous lower-level convergence(divergence)and upward(downward)motion are the critical circulation characters for above(below)precipitation.Further analysis indicates ENSO and the IOD are the two main oceanic systems modulating OND precipitation in Tanzania.El Niño and a positive IOD could induce easterly anomalies and weaken the Walker circulation over the Indian Ocean,consequently leading to lower-level convergence in water vapor flux,upward anomalies,and more than normal precipitation in Tanzania.In contrast,La Niña and a negative IOD produce opposite circulation anomalies and less than normal precipitation over Tanzania.Moreover,through partial correlation and Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Analysis,the individual contributions of ENSO and the IOD to circulation are investigated.It is found that although both the IOD and ENSO impact the Walker circulation,the feedback to the IOD is stronger than ENSO.These results provide critical insights into the oceanic drivers and their mechanistic pathways underlying precipitation anomalies in Tanzania.展开更多
The Hadley Circulation(HC),a fundamental component of global atmospheric circulation,plays an important role in the global energy balance and transport of moisture.The interaction between ENSO and the HC significantly...The Hadley Circulation(HC),a fundamental component of global atmospheric circulation,plays an important role in the global energy balance and transport of moisture.The interaction between ENSO and the HC significantly impacts tropical climate and has broad implications for global climate variability through atmospheric teleconnections.The HC is usually represented by the mass stream function.As a result,it can rarely be observed through in-situ measurement.Reanalysis datasets and CMIP models are frequently used to investigate the properties of the HC.Previous studies systematically assess the capability of these CMIP models to represent the spatial distribution and intensity of the HC anomalies associated with ENSO events.However,most of these studies investigate the HC anomaly from a global perspective.In this work,we focus on evaluating the ability of CMIP6 models to capture the three-dimensional features of ENSO-related HC anomalies in comparison to that in six reanalysis datasets.Results show a consistent westward shift of the ENSO-related HC over the tropical Central-Eastern Pacific in almost all CMIP6 models,accompanied by a weakening of the asymmetric component of the ENSO-related HC over the equatorial Pacific.The former is mainly attributed to the westward extension of the Pacific cold tongue in CMIP models,while the latter is more related to the southward shift of the ENSO-related SST and precipitation anomalies in CMIP models.One should be aware of these biases when studying the ENSO-related atmospheric circulation changes.Our study has broad implications for ENSO simulations and the predictability of ENSO-related global climate variabilities.展开更多
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a naturally recurring interannual climate fluctuation that affects the global climate system.The advent of deep learning-based approaches has led to transformative changes...The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a naturally recurring interannual climate fluctuation that affects the global climate system.The advent of deep learning-based approaches has led to transformative changes in ENSO forecasts,resulting in significant progress.Most deep learning-based ENSO prediction models which primarily rely solely on reanalysis data may lead to challenges in intensity underestimation in long-term forecasts,reducing the forecasting skills.To this end,we propose a deep residual-coupled model prediction(Res-CMP)model,which integrates historical reanalysis data and coupled model forecast data for multiyear ENSO prediction.The Res-CMP model is designed as a lightweight model that leverages only short-term reanalysis data and nudging assimilation prediction results of the Community Earth System Model(CESM)for effective prediction of the Niño 3.4 index.We also developed a transfer learning strategy for this model to overcome the limitations of inadequate forecast data.After determining the optimal configuration,which included selecting a suitable transfer learning rate during training,along with input variables and CESM forecast lengths,Res-CMP demonstrated a high correlation ability for 19-month lead time predictions(correlation coefficients exceeding 0.5).The Res-CMP model also alleviated the spring predictability barrier(SPB).When validated against actual ENSO events,Res-CMP successfully captured the temporal evolution of the Niño 3.4 index during La Niña events(1998/99 and 2020/21)and El Niño events(2009/10 and 2015/16).Our proposed model has the potential to further enhance ENSO prediction performance by using coupled models to assist deep learning methods.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers U2242205 and 41830969]the S&T Development Fund of CAMS [grant number 2023KJ036]the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS [grant number 2023Z018]。
文摘The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of ENSO.Based on data during 1982-2022,results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback,in which the positive(negative)phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño(La Niña)in boreal winter via an earlier(delayed)seasonal cycle transition and larger(smaller)annual mean.The magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than±0.3◦C,regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity analysis.Results reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO,which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.
基金jointly supported by projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 42141017 and 41975112]。
文摘El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further investigation.To investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 models.The results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the future.The higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in variability.Carbon flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9%compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through temperature.This occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.
基金funded by Gobierno de Chile with the project“An atlas of droughts for Chile:1000 years of space-time changes and variations throughout the territory”(grant number FONDECYT 1181956).
文摘The Mediterranean region in central Chile is experiencing a significant decrease in precipitation due to climate change and the dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO).Droughts have increased in recent decades,~with the most severe and longest drought of the last millennium occurring since 2010 in central Chile.The impact of ongoing water scarcity is leading to significant drought-related declines in tree growth and forest dieback in the Mediterranean region.A deep understanding of how tree species respond to climate is crucial to accurately predict how forests will respond to climate change.We examined the growth responses to climate of three endemic and threatened tree species of the Mediterranean forests of central Chile,Nothofagus macrocarpa,Cryptocarya alba and Persea lingue,in a protected area.We observed that the growth of all three species was highly dependent on water availability and ENSO,and that the evergreen species C.alba and P.lingue increased their sensitivity to hydroclimate more than the deciduous species N.macrocarpa.These relationships were consistent across much of southern South America,highlighting the dependence of these species on water availability at large geographic scales.We found that there is a relationship between local water availability and ENSO that has intensified temporally and expanded geographically in recent decades.The xerophyllous species C.alba showed greater resistance and increasing resilience to severe droughts,while P.lingue and N.macrocarpa showed greater growth decline during droughts,possibly due to their preference for wetter environments.Our results highlight the crucial role of ENSO-driven water availability and drought in limiting tree growth and threatening the conservation of Mediterranean forests in central Chile.
基金the Ministry of Science and Technology,Government of India,and Council of Scientific and Industrial Research(CSIR)(09/081(1371)/2019-EMRI)for its funding,supported by a NERC Independent Research Fellowship(MITRE,NE/W007924/1)。
文摘In this study,we investigate the complex relationship between western disturbances(WDs),the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),and extreme precipitation events(EPEs) in the western Himalaya(WH) during the extended winter season(November–March).WDs west of WH coincide with 97% of recorded EPEs,contributing substantially(32% in winter,11% annually) to total precipitation within WH.WDs are 6% less frequent and 4% more intense during El Ni?o than La Ni?a to the west of WH.During El Ni?o(compared to La Ni?a) years,WDs co-occurring with EPEs are significantly more intense and associated with 17% higher moisture transport over “WH box”(the selected region where most of the winter precipitation over WH occurs).This results in twice the EPE frequency during El Ni?o periods than La Ni?a periods.A substantial southward shift(~180 km) of the subtropical jet(STJ) axis during El Ni?o brings WD tracks further south towards their primary moisture sources,especially the Arabian Sea.We have shown that WDs that are both more intense and pass to the south of their typical latitudes have higher levels of vertically integrated moisture flux(VIMF)within them.VIMF convergence in the most intense pentile of WDs is 5.7 times higher than in the weakest,and is 3.4 times higher in the second lowest latitude pentile than in the highest.Overall,this study demonstrates a direct link between changes in the latitudinal position and intensity of WDs associated with the winter STJ,and moisture convergence,which leads to the occurrence of EPEs over WH during ENSO phases.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFF0805101)the National Natural Science Founda-tion of China(Grant Nos.42376250 and 42405068).
文摘A prior observational study indicated an asymmetric link between sea surface temperature(SST)in the Tasman Sea and ENSO during austral summer.Specifically,El Niño is associated with a dipolar SST anomaly pattern,featuring warming in the northwest and cooling in the southeast,whereas La Niña corresponds to basin-scale warming.This study employs the experiments of coupled models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)to assess ENSO’s impact on Tasman Sea SST.While all 15 models capture the observed dipolar SST anomalies(SSTAs)in the Tasman Sea during El Niño years,only 7 models capture the basin-scale warmth in the Tasman Sea during La Niña years.Consequently,the models are bifurcated into two groups:group-one models yield one physically reasonable asymmetric connection as observed,including the asymmetry of oceanic heat transport,especially the Ekman meridional transport anomalies induced by zonal wind stress driven by the asymmetric atmospheric circulation over the Tasman Sea.However,due to abnormal responses to ENSO and systematic biases in model simulations,including jet and storm tracks,oceanic heat fluxes,ocean currents,and SST,the group-two models fail to reproduce the asymmetric connection between the Tasman Sea and ENSO.This study not only validates the observational asymmetric connection of SSTAs in the Tasman Sea with respect to the two opposite ENSO phases,but also provides evidence and clues to reduce the bias in group-two models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42105030 and 42105066]the Ministry of Commerce,People’s Republic of China.
文摘Tanzania is mainly subject to a bimodal rainfall pattern,characterized by two distinct seasons:the long rains,occurring from March to May,and the short rains,which typically take place from October to December(OND).Short rains are usually less intense but still significantly influence local agriculture.Therefore,with station-based observations and reanalysis data,the current paper examines the interannual variability of OND precipitation in Tanzania from 1993 to 2022 and explores the possible impacts from El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)as well as the mechanisms.It is found that the Tanzania OND precipitation is above(below)normal in 1997,2006,2011,and 2019(1993,1998,2005,and 2016).The composite difference between wet(dry)years and the climatology indicates that the anomalous lower-level convergence(divergence)and upward(downward)motion are the critical circulation characters for above(below)precipitation.Further analysis indicates ENSO and the IOD are the two main oceanic systems modulating OND precipitation in Tanzania.El Niño and a positive IOD could induce easterly anomalies and weaken the Walker circulation over the Indian Ocean,consequently leading to lower-level convergence in water vapor flux,upward anomalies,and more than normal precipitation in Tanzania.In contrast,La Niña and a negative IOD produce opposite circulation anomalies and less than normal precipitation over Tanzania.Moreover,through partial correlation and Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Analysis,the individual contributions of ENSO and the IOD to circulation are investigated.It is found that although both the IOD and ENSO impact the Walker circulation,the feedback to the IOD is stronger than ENSO.These results provide critical insights into the oceanic drivers and their mechanistic pathways underlying precipitation anomalies in Tanzania.
基金supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(Grant No.42325605)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42176243)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42222501)。
文摘The Hadley Circulation(HC),a fundamental component of global atmospheric circulation,plays an important role in the global energy balance and transport of moisture.The interaction between ENSO and the HC significantly impacts tropical climate and has broad implications for global climate variability through atmospheric teleconnections.The HC is usually represented by the mass stream function.As a result,it can rarely be observed through in-situ measurement.Reanalysis datasets and CMIP models are frequently used to investigate the properties of the HC.Previous studies systematically assess the capability of these CMIP models to represent the spatial distribution and intensity of the HC anomalies associated with ENSO events.However,most of these studies investigate the HC anomaly from a global perspective.In this work,we focus on evaluating the ability of CMIP6 models to capture the three-dimensional features of ENSO-related HC anomalies in comparison to that in six reanalysis datasets.Results show a consistent westward shift of the ENSO-related HC over the tropical Central-Eastern Pacific in almost all CMIP6 models,accompanied by a weakening of the asymmetric component of the ENSO-related HC over the equatorial Pacific.The former is mainly attributed to the westward extension of the Pacific cold tongue in CMIP models,while the latter is more related to the southward shift of the ENSO-related SST and precipitation anomalies in CMIP models.One should be aware of these biases when studying the ENSO-related atmospheric circulation changes.Our study has broad implications for ENSO simulations and the predictability of ENSO-related global climate variabilities.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2024YFF0808900,2023YFF0805300,and 2020YFA0608804the Civilian Space Programme of China under contract No.D040305.
文摘The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a naturally recurring interannual climate fluctuation that affects the global climate system.The advent of deep learning-based approaches has led to transformative changes in ENSO forecasts,resulting in significant progress.Most deep learning-based ENSO prediction models which primarily rely solely on reanalysis data may lead to challenges in intensity underestimation in long-term forecasts,reducing the forecasting skills.To this end,we propose a deep residual-coupled model prediction(Res-CMP)model,which integrates historical reanalysis data and coupled model forecast data for multiyear ENSO prediction.The Res-CMP model is designed as a lightweight model that leverages only short-term reanalysis data and nudging assimilation prediction results of the Community Earth System Model(CESM)for effective prediction of the Niño 3.4 index.We also developed a transfer learning strategy for this model to overcome the limitations of inadequate forecast data.After determining the optimal configuration,which included selecting a suitable transfer learning rate during training,along with input variables and CESM forecast lengths,Res-CMP demonstrated a high correlation ability for 19-month lead time predictions(correlation coefficients exceeding 0.5).The Res-CMP model also alleviated the spring predictability barrier(SPB).When validated against actual ENSO events,Res-CMP successfully captured the temporal evolution of the Niño 3.4 index during La Niña events(1998/99 and 2020/21)and El Niño events(2009/10 and 2015/16).Our proposed model has the potential to further enhance ENSO prediction performance by using coupled models to assist deep learning methods.
