The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO...The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is used. And based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model, the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the perturbation method. Firstly, an ENSO model of nonlinear time delay equation of equatorial Pacific is introduced, Secondly, by using the perturbed method, the zeroth and first order asymptotic perturbed solutions are constructed. Finally, from the comparison of the values for a figure, it is seen that the first asymptotic perturbed solution using the perturbation method has a good accuracy. And it is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used as an analytic operation for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.展开更多
A sea-air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Nino-southern oscillation （ENSO） model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic sol...A sea-air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Nino-southern oscillation （ENSO） model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic solution of the corresponding problem is obtained. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly and the related physical quantities.展开更多
By using cross-section data on consumption structure of rural residents in Gansu Province in 2007 and 2008,this paper adopts ELES model to conduct empirical analysis on consumption structure of rural residents in Gans...By using cross-section data on consumption structure of rural residents in Gansu Province in 2007 and 2008,this paper adopts ELES model to conduct empirical analysis on consumption structure of rural residents in Gansu Province.It indicates that in the current consumption structure of rural residents in Gansu Province,food expenditure is still at the most important and basic level;the overall consumption level of rural residents in Gansu Province is not high;at present,the consumption of rural residents in Gansu Province still hinges in a large measure on income,vulnerable to the price fluctuation.Consequently,increasing farmers'income and stabilizing the level of commodity price,turns out to be a foundation as well as an important approach to improve consumption structure of rural residents in Gansu Province.展开更多
According to the household consumption data of urban residents in Guangxi Statistical Yearbook in the year 2009, the ELES (Extended Linear Expenditure System) is used to analyze the consumption structure, the propensi...According to the household consumption data of urban residents in Guangxi Statistical Yearbook in the year 2009, the ELES (Extended Linear Expenditure System) is used to analyze the consumption structure, the propensity to consume, and the consumer flexibility of urban residents in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China in the year 2008. Result shows that urban residents in Guangxi has relatively low propensity to consume. And their consumption, especially the middle and low-income families, is mostly concentrated in food, cloth, lodging and other basic necessities of life, which account for more than a half of their income. Based on this, corresponding suggestions are put forward to enlarge the consumption demand of urban residents in Guangxi, such as increasing the regulation of income redistribution, minimizing the gap between the rich and the poor, enhancing the overall consumption level, cultivating the consumption hot spots for the urban residents, and actively guiding the enjoyable consumption.展开更多
Atmospheric physics is a very complicated natural phenomenon and needs to simplify its basic models for the sea-air oscillator. And it is solved by using the approximate method. The variational iteration method is a s...Atmospheric physics is a very complicated natural phenomenon and needs to simplify its basic models for the sea-air oscillator. And it is solved by using the approximate method. The variational iteration method is a simple and valid method. In this paper the coupled system for a sea-air oscillator model of interdecadal climate fluctuations is considered. Firstly, through introducing a set of functions, and computing the variations, the Lagrange multipliers are obtained. And then, the generalized expressions of variational iteration are constructed. Finally, through selecting appropriate initial iteration from the iteration expressions, the approximations of solution for the sea-air oscillator model are solved successively.展开更多
In this paper,a class of coupled system for the E1 Nifio/La Nifia southern oscillation(ENSO)atmospheric physics oscillation model is considered.We propose an ENSO atmospheric physics model using a method from the asym...In this paper,a class of coupled system for the E1 Nifio/La Nifia southern oscillation(ENSO)atmospheric physics oscillation model is considered.We propose an ENSO atmospheric physics model using a method from the asymptotic theory.It is indicated from the results that the asymptotic method can be used for analyzing the sea surface temperature anomaly and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model in the equatorial Pacific.展开更多
Extend Linear Expenditure System model is a collection of multiple linear models, and modeling is a clearly tedious process. The innovation of this paper is trying to find a simple way of ELES modeling, which means, i...Extend Linear Expenditure System model is a collection of multiple linear models, and modeling is a clearly tedious process. The innovation of this paper is trying to find a simple way of ELES modeling, which means, in order to omit the modeling process one by one, we try to use Excel functionality to create a model workplace. As long as you replace the original sample data in the workspace, you can get the results you want.展开更多
With the action of small perturbation on generalized El-Nabulsi-Birkhoff fractional equations,the perturbation to Noether symmetries and adiabatic invariants are studied under the framework of El-Nabulsi′s fractional...With the action of small perturbation on generalized El-Nabulsi-Birkhoff fractional equations,the perturbation to Noether symmetries and adiabatic invariants are studied under the framework of El-Nabulsi′s fractional model.Firstly,based on the invariance of El-Nabulsi-Pfaff action under the infinitesimal transformations of group,the exact invariants are given.Secondly,on the basis of the definition of higher order adiabatic invariants of a dynamical system,the adiabatic invariants of the Noether symmetric perturbation for disturbed generalized El-Nabulsi′s fractional Birkhoff system are presented under some conditions,and some special cases are discussed.Finally,an example known as Hojman-Urrutia problem is given to illustrate the application of the results.展开更多
Severe biases exist in state-of-the-art general circulation models（GCMs） in capturing realistic central-Pacific（CP） El Nino structures. At the same time, many observational analyses have emphasized that thermoclin...Severe biases exist in state-of-the-art general circulation models（GCMs） in capturing realistic central-Pacific（CP） El Nino structures. At the same time, many observational analyses have emphasized that thermocline（TH） feedback and zonal advective（ZA） feedback play dominant roles in the development of eastern-Pacific（EP） and CP El Nino-Southern Oscillation（ENSO）, respectively. In this work, a simple linear air-sea coupled model, which can accurately depict the strength distribution of the TH and ZA feedbacks in the equatorial Pacific, is used to investigate these two types of El Nino. The results indicate that the model can reproduce the main characteristics of CP ENSO if the TH feedback is switched off and the ZA feedback is retained as the only positive feedback, confirming the dominant role played by ZA feedback in the development of CP ENSO. Further experiments indicate that, through a simple nonlinear control approach, many ENSO characteristics,including the existence of both CP and EP El Nino and the asymmetries between El Nino and La Nina, can be successfully captured using the simple linear air-sea coupled model. These analyses indicate that an accurate depiction of the climatological sea surface temperature distribution and the related ZA feedback, which are the subject of severe biases in GCMs, is very important in simulating a realistic CP El Nino.展开更多
In this paper, a Takagi Sugeno （T-S） fuzzy model-based method is proposed to deal with the problem of synchronization of two identical or different hyperchaotic systems. The T S fuzzy models with a small number of f...In this paper, a Takagi Sugeno （T-S） fuzzy model-based method is proposed to deal with the problem of synchronization of two identical or different hyperchaotic systems. The T S fuzzy models with a small number of fuzzy IF-THEN rules are employed to represent many typical hyperchaotic systems exactly. The benefit of employing the T-S fuzzy models lies in mathematical simplicity of analysis. Based on the T-S fuzzy hyperchaotic models, two fuzzy controllers arc designed via parallel distributed compensation （PDC） and exact linearization （EL） techniques to synchronize two identical hyperchaotic systems with uncertain parameters and two different hyperchaotic systems, respectively. The sufficient conditions for the robust synchronization of two identical hyperchaotic systems with uncertain parameters and the asymptotic synchronization of two different hyperchaotic systems are derived by applying the Lyapunov stability theory. This method is a universal one of synchronizing two identical or different hyperchaotic systems. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the validity of the proposed fuzzy model and hyperchaotic synchronization scheme.展开更多
In this paper, the tropical Pacific layer model of characteristic modes was developed, which improves andper feets the first vertical baroclinic mode model currently used in ENSO dynamic studies. The dynamic mechanism...In this paper, the tropical Pacific layer model of characteristic modes was developed, which improves andper feets the first vertical baroclinic mode model currently used in ENSO dynamic studies. The dynamic mechanisms andstructures of tropical Pacific thermoclinic depth disturbances were further detected. These studies demonstrate that, inaddition to the momentum exchange between oceanic mixed layer (surface layer) and thermoclinic layer (subsurface layer)which is an important dynamic mechanism triggering the thermoclinic depth disturbances, the vertical sea water mass ex change between oceanic layers plays an important dynamic role in triggering thermoclinic depth disturbances. Both kindsof physical processes excit different kind of dynamic modes and exhibit different structures, respectively. The disturbancesinduced by both kinds of dynamic modes intensify each other. The dynamic mechanism and dynamic processes of El Ninodeveloping are also discussed in the paper.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies produccd on monthly to interannual time scales by the complex general circulation model (GCM) of the center for Ocean Land Atmosphere...The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies produccd on monthly to interannual time scales by the complex general circulation model (GCM) of the center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Interactions (C.O.L.A.) at low (R15) resolutions. The model is integraed using observed sea surface temperature (SST) for ten years 1979 through 1988. The model simulates generally realistic wind stress anomaly (WSA). The model-generated data set of WSA was used to force the Zebiax Cane ocean model (ZCOM) for ten years. The modeled (SST) anomalies were compared to the observed SST anomalies. The ZCOM simulation shows realistic 1982/83 and 1986/87 warm episodes along the equator, but could produce less realistic 1984/85and 1988/89 cold episodes along the equator due to lack of wind stress forcing in the mean model. Time series of the NINO3 index (measuring the SST anomaly in the mid-eastern Pacific) is realistic for the ZCOM simulation.展开更多
-In this paper, monthly mean SST data in a large area are used. After the spacial average of the data is carried out and the secular monthly means are substracted, a time series (Jan. 1951-Dec. 1985) of SST anomalies ...-In this paper, monthly mean SST data in a large area are used. After the spacial average of the data is carried out and the secular monthly means are substracted, a time series (Jan. 1951-Dec. 1985) of SST anomalies of the cold tongue water area in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is obtained. On the basis of the time series, an autoregression model, a self-exciting threshold autoregression model and an open loop autoregression model are developed respectively. The interannual variations are simulated by means of those models. The simulation results show that all the three models have made very good hindcasting for the nine El Nino events since 1951. In order to test the reliability of the open loop threshold model, extrapolated forecast was made for the period of Jan. 1986-Feb. 1987. It can be seen from the forecasting that the model could forecast well the beginning and strengthening stages of the recent El Nino event (1986-1987). Correlation coefficients of the estimations to observations are respectively 0. 84, 0. 88 and 0. 89. It is obvious that all the models work well and the open loop threshold one is the best. So the open loop threshold autoregression model is a useful tool for monitoring the SSTinterannual variation of the cold tongue water area in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and for estimating the El Nino strength.展开更多
Water shortage is the main problem facing any development in Egypt especially in the desert lands. River Nile is considered the main source of water in Egypt but its water covers only the area of flood plain where its...Water shortage is the main problem facing any development in Egypt especially in the desert lands. River Nile is considered the main source of water in Egypt but its water covers only the area of flood plain where its tributaries do not reach to the desert. The desert fringes, west of El-Minia governorate, Egypt, are areas of natural expansion for agricultural, industrial, and civil activities. This implies an increasing demand for groundwater. A numerical groundwater model is one of the main tools used for assessment of the resource potential and prediction of future impact under different circumstances and stresses. In this paper, a transient groundwater flow model in the desert district west of El-Minia, Egypt, was developed. The conceptual model was built by analyzing the hydrogeological data and previous work. Steady state model of year 1990 was used to investigate and calibrate the parameters such as hydraulic conductivities, recharge and conductance of the surface water streams. The storage coefficients are calibrated by the transient model based on the available data observed from 1990 to 2013, which provides insights to understand the behavior of groundwater system in Quaternary Aquifer and to predict spatial-temporal distributions of groundwater levels and groundwater flow in responding to extraction of water. The calibrated transient model will be used to predict the impacts of desert development schemes and water resources management schemes on groundwater in the study area.展开更多
An experiment using the Community Climate System Model(CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5(CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the...An experiment using the Community Climate System Model(CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5(CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.展开更多
The Covid-19 epidemic is an emerging infectious disease of the viral zoonosis type caused by the coronavirus strain SARS-CoV-2, it is classified as a human-to-human communicable disease and is currently a pandemic wor...The Covid-19 epidemic is an emerging infectious disease of the viral zoonosis type caused by the coronavirus strain SARS-CoV-2, it is classified as a human-to-human communicable disease and is currently a pandemic worldwide. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models of the epidemic dynamics of four compartments. We have collected data from the Djibouti health ministry. We study the positivity, boundedness, existence and uniqueness of the weak solution. Next, we define the Basic reproduction number by the method of the DFE and EEP. Then, we study the local and global stability and the bifurcation analysis of equilibrium to examine its epidemiological relevance. Finally, we analyze the fit of the data in comparison with the result of our mathematical results, to validate the model and estimate the important model parameters and prediction about the disease. We consider the real cases of Djibouti from 15th March to 15th May 2021.展开更多
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 40676016 and 10471039)the State KeyProgram for Basic Research of China (Grant Nos 2003CB415101-03 and 2004CB418304)+2 种基金the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No KZCX3-SW-221)in partly by E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant NoN.E03004)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province,China (Grant No Y606268)
文摘The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is used. And based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model, the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the perturbation method. Firstly, an ENSO model of nonlinear time delay equation of equatorial Pacific is introduced, Secondly, by using the perturbed method, the zeroth and first order asymptotic perturbed solutions are constructed. Finally, from the comparison of the values for a figure, it is seen that the first asymptotic perturbed solution using the perturbation method has a good accuracy. And it is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used as an analytic operation for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40876010)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China (Grant No.Y6110502)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of the Education Bureau of Anhui Province of China (Grant Nos.KJ2011A135 and KJ2011Z003)the LASG State Key Laboratory Special Fund of Chinathe Foundation of E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission,China (Grant No.E03004)
文摘A sea-air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Nino-southern oscillation （ENSO） model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic solution of the corresponding problem is obtained. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly and the related physical quantities.
文摘By using cross-section data on consumption structure of rural residents in Gansu Province in 2007 and 2008,this paper adopts ELES model to conduct empirical analysis on consumption structure of rural residents in Gansu Province.It indicates that in the current consumption structure of rural residents in Gansu Province,food expenditure is still at the most important and basic level;the overall consumption level of rural residents in Gansu Province is not high;at present,the consumption of rural residents in Gansu Province still hinges in a large measure on income,vulnerable to the price fluctuation.Consequently,increasing farmers'income and stabilizing the level of commodity price,turns out to be a foundation as well as an important approach to improve consumption structure of rural residents in Gansu Province.
文摘According to the household consumption data of urban residents in Guangxi Statistical Yearbook in the year 2009, the ELES (Extended Linear Expenditure System) is used to analyze the consumption structure, the propensity to consume, and the consumer flexibility of urban residents in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China in the year 2008. Result shows that urban residents in Guangxi has relatively low propensity to consume. And their consumption, especially the middle and low-income families, is mostly concentrated in food, cloth, lodging and other basic necessities of life, which account for more than a half of their income. Based on this, corresponding suggestions are put forward to enlarge the consumption demand of urban residents in Guangxi, such as increasing the regulation of income redistribution, minimizing the gap between the rich and the poor, enhancing the overall consumption level, cultivating the consumption hot spots for the urban residents, and actively guiding the enjoyable consumption.
文摘Atmospheric physics is a very complicated natural phenomenon and needs to simplify its basic models for the sea-air oscillator. And it is solved by using the approximate method. The variational iteration method is a simple and valid method. In this paper the coupled system for a sea-air oscillator model of interdecadal climate fluctuations is considered. Firstly, through introducing a set of functions, and computing the variations, the Lagrange multipliers are obtained. And then, the generalized expressions of variational iteration are constructed. Finally, through selecting appropriate initial iteration from the iteration expressions, the approximations of solution for the sea-air oscillator model are solved successively.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40876010)the Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA01020304)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation from the Education Bureau of Anhui Province,China(Grant No.KJ2011A135)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province,China(Grant No.Y6110502)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,China(Grant No.BK2011042)
文摘In this paper,a class of coupled system for the E1 Nifio/La Nifia southern oscillation(ENSO)atmospheric physics oscillation model is considered.We propose an ENSO atmospheric physics model using a method from the asymptotic theory.It is indicated from the results that the asymptotic method can be used for analyzing the sea surface temperature anomaly and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model in the equatorial Pacific.
文摘Extend Linear Expenditure System model is a collection of multiple linear models, and modeling is a clearly tedious process. The innovation of this paper is trying to find a simple way of ELES modeling, which means, in order to omit the modeling process one by one, we try to use Excel functionality to create a model workplace. As long as you replace the original sample data in the workspace, you can get the results you want.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.10972151,11272227)the Innovation Program for Scientific Research of Nanjing University of Science and Technology
文摘With the action of small perturbation on generalized El-Nabulsi-Birkhoff fractional equations,the perturbation to Noether symmetries and adiabatic invariants are studied under the framework of El-Nabulsi′s fractional model.Firstly,based on the invariance of El-Nabulsi-Pfaff action under the infinitesimal transformations of group,the exact invariants are given.Secondly,on the basis of the definition of higher order adiabatic invariants of a dynamical system,the adiabatic invariants of the Noether symmetric perturbation for disturbed generalized El-Nabulsi′s fractional Birkhoff system are presented under some conditions,and some special cases are discussed.Finally,an example known as Hojman-Urrutia problem is given to illustrate the application of the results.
基金supported by a project funded by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2017M610225)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41576019)
文摘Severe biases exist in state-of-the-art general circulation models（GCMs） in capturing realistic central-Pacific（CP） El Nino structures. At the same time, many observational analyses have emphasized that thermocline（TH） feedback and zonal advective（ZA） feedback play dominant roles in the development of eastern-Pacific（EP） and CP El Nino-Southern Oscillation（ENSO）, respectively. In this work, a simple linear air-sea coupled model, which can accurately depict the strength distribution of the TH and ZA feedbacks in the equatorial Pacific, is used to investigate these two types of El Nino. The results indicate that the model can reproduce the main characteristics of CP ENSO if the TH feedback is switched off and the ZA feedback is retained as the only positive feedback, confirming the dominant role played by ZA feedback in the development of CP ENSO. Further experiments indicate that, through a simple nonlinear control approach, many ENSO characteristics,including the existence of both CP and EP El Nino and the asymmetries between El Nino and La Nina, can be successfully captured using the simple linear air-sea coupled model. These analyses indicate that an accurate depiction of the climatological sea surface temperature distribution and the related ZA feedback, which are the subject of severe biases in GCMs, is very important in simulating a realistic CP El Nino.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 60534010, 60572070, 60774048 and 60728307)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Groups of China (Grant No 60521003)+1 种基金the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (Grant No 20070145015)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No 2006AA04Z183)
文摘In this paper, a Takagi Sugeno （T-S） fuzzy model-based method is proposed to deal with the problem of synchronization of two identical or different hyperchaotic systems. The T S fuzzy models with a small number of fuzzy IF-THEN rules are employed to represent many typical hyperchaotic systems exactly. The benefit of employing the T-S fuzzy models lies in mathematical simplicity of analysis. Based on the T-S fuzzy hyperchaotic models, two fuzzy controllers arc designed via parallel distributed compensation （PDC） and exact linearization （EL） techniques to synchronize two identical hyperchaotic systems with uncertain parameters and two different hyperchaotic systems, respectively. The sufficient conditions for the robust synchronization of two identical hyperchaotic systems with uncertain parameters and the asymptotic synchronization of two different hyperchaotic systems are derived by applying the Lyapunov stability theory. This method is a universal one of synchronizing two identical or different hyperchaotic systems. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the validity of the proposed fuzzy model and hyperchaotic synchronization scheme.
文摘In this paper, the tropical Pacific layer model of characteristic modes was developed, which improves andper feets the first vertical baroclinic mode model currently used in ENSO dynamic studies. The dynamic mechanisms andstructures of tropical Pacific thermoclinic depth disturbances were further detected. These studies demonstrate that, inaddition to the momentum exchange between oceanic mixed layer (surface layer) and thermoclinic layer (subsurface layer)which is an important dynamic mechanism triggering the thermoclinic depth disturbances, the vertical sea water mass ex change between oceanic layers plays an important dynamic role in triggering thermoclinic depth disturbances. Both kindsof physical processes excit different kind of dynamic modes and exhibit different structures, respectively. The disturbancesinduced by both kinds of dynamic modes intensify each other. The dynamic mechanism and dynamic processes of El Ninodeveloping are also discussed in the paper.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies produccd on monthly to interannual time scales by the complex general circulation model (GCM) of the center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Interactions (C.O.L.A.) at low (R15) resolutions. The model is integraed using observed sea surface temperature (SST) for ten years 1979 through 1988. The model simulates generally realistic wind stress anomaly (WSA). The model-generated data set of WSA was used to force the Zebiax Cane ocean model (ZCOM) for ten years. The modeled (SST) anomalies were compared to the observed SST anomalies. The ZCOM simulation shows realistic 1982/83 and 1986/87 warm episodes along the equator, but could produce less realistic 1984/85and 1988/89 cold episodes along the equator due to lack of wind stress forcing in the mean model. Time series of the NINO3 index (measuring the SST anomaly in the mid-eastern Pacific) is realistic for the ZCOM simulation.
文摘-In this paper, monthly mean SST data in a large area are used. After the spacial average of the data is carried out and the secular monthly means are substracted, a time series (Jan. 1951-Dec. 1985) of SST anomalies of the cold tongue water area in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is obtained. On the basis of the time series, an autoregression model, a self-exciting threshold autoregression model and an open loop autoregression model are developed respectively. The interannual variations are simulated by means of those models. The simulation results show that all the three models have made very good hindcasting for the nine El Nino events since 1951. In order to test the reliability of the open loop threshold model, extrapolated forecast was made for the period of Jan. 1986-Feb. 1987. It can be seen from the forecasting that the model could forecast well the beginning and strengthening stages of the recent El Nino event (1986-1987). Correlation coefficients of the estimations to observations are respectively 0. 84, 0. 88 and 0. 89. It is obvious that all the models work well and the open loop threshold one is the best. So the open loop threshold autoregression model is a useful tool for monitoring the SSTinterannual variation of the cold tongue water area in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and for estimating the El Nino strength.
文摘Water shortage is the main problem facing any development in Egypt especially in the desert lands. River Nile is considered the main source of water in Egypt but its water covers only the area of flood plain where its tributaries do not reach to the desert. The desert fringes, west of El-Minia governorate, Egypt, are areas of natural expansion for agricultural, industrial, and civil activities. This implies an increasing demand for groundwater. A numerical groundwater model is one of the main tools used for assessment of the resource potential and prediction of future impact under different circumstances and stresses. In this paper, a transient groundwater flow model in the desert district west of El-Minia, Egypt, was developed. The conceptual model was built by analyzing the hydrogeological data and previous work. Steady state model of year 1990 was used to investigate and calibrate the parameters such as hydraulic conductivities, recharge and conductance of the surface water streams. The storage coefficients are calibrated by the transient model based on the available data observed from 1990 to 2013, which provides insights to understand the behavior of groundwater system in Quaternary Aquifer and to predict spatial-temporal distributions of groundwater levels and groundwater flow in responding to extraction of water. The calibrated transient model will be used to predict the impacts of desert development schemes and water resources management schemes on groundwater in the study area.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2012CB956000)the Strategic Priority Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA11010301)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41421005,U1406401)the Public Welfare Grant of China Meteorological Administration(No.GYHY201306018)the Global Change and Air-Sea Interactions of State Oceanic Administration(No.GASI-03-01-01-05)
文摘An experiment using the Community Climate System Model(CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5(CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.
文摘The Covid-19 epidemic is an emerging infectious disease of the viral zoonosis type caused by the coronavirus strain SARS-CoV-2, it is classified as a human-to-human communicable disease and is currently a pandemic worldwide. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models of the epidemic dynamics of four compartments. We have collected data from the Djibouti health ministry. We study the positivity, boundedness, existence and uniqueness of the weak solution. Next, we define the Basic reproduction number by the method of the DFE and EEP. Then, we study the local and global stability and the bifurcation analysis of equilibrium to examine its epidemiological relevance. Finally, we analyze the fit of the data in comparison with the result of our mathematical results, to validate the model and estimate the important model parameters and prediction about the disease. We consider the real cases of Djibouti from 15th March to 15th May 2021.
