The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal structure of drought over the continental United States(CONUS) and their teleconnection at different timescales from observations and climate models. We use...The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal structure of drought over the continental United States(CONUS) and their teleconnection at different timescales from observations and climate models. We use the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) at 12-and 24-month timescales as the drought index. Spatial patterns of drought regimes are delineated by using the principal component analysis(PCA) while the temporal characteristics of the variability of each drought pattern and teleconnection with climate indices are analyzed by using the wavelet analysis. Wavelet coherence of the drought pattern and four climate indices: El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) are analyzed. The results show that major drought patterns are located over the Northwest, South, Upper Midwest, and East regions. The spatial pattern of the drought regimes is similar for the 12-and 24-month timescale drought. ENSO influences the drought over West and South at decadal timescales throughout the study period(1950–2015) while intermittent significant coherence is observed at interannual timescale. The coherence of NAO and PDO with SPEI-12 is decreased during recent decades. Generally, regional climate model(RCM)-simulated drought patterns are more localized in a smaller area over the region compared to the spatial extent of observed drought patterns. Power spectra of seasonal to interannual variability(2–5-yr period) of all four drought patterns from RCM simulations are similar to those from the observations. However, at larger periodicities(decadal variations)among-RCM spread increases with increasing periods.展开更多
A decadal change in summer rainfall in the Asian inland plateau（AIP） region is identified around 1999. This decadal change is characterized by an abrupt decrease in summer rainfall of about 15.7% of the climatologic...A decadal change in summer rainfall in the Asian inland plateau（AIP） region is identified around 1999. This decadal change is characterized by an abrupt decrease in summer rainfall of about 15.7% of the climatological average amount,leading to prolonged drought in the Asian inland plateau region. Both the surface air temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the AIP show a significant increase, while the soil moisture exhibits a decrease, after the late 1990s. Furthermore,the normalized difference vegetation index shows an apparent decreasing trend during 1999–2007. Three different drought indices—the standardized precipitation index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index—present pronounced climate anomalies during 1999–2007, indicating dramatic drought exacerbation in the region after the late 1990s. This decadal change in the summer rainfall may be attributable to a wave-like teleconnection pattern from Western Europe to Asia. A set of model sensitivity experiments suggests that the summer warming sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic could induce this teleconnection pattern over Eurasia, resulting in recent drought in the AIP region.展开更多
基金This work was partially supported by the Bishop,Floyd&Wilma Endowment and Paul A.Rechard Fellowship at the University of Wyoming
文摘The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal structure of drought over the continental United States(CONUS) and their teleconnection at different timescales from observations and climate models. We use the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) at 12-and 24-month timescales as the drought index. Spatial patterns of drought regimes are delineated by using the principal component analysis(PCA) while the temporal characteristics of the variability of each drought pattern and teleconnection with climate indices are analyzed by using the wavelet analysis. Wavelet coherence of the drought pattern and four climate indices: El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) are analyzed. The results show that major drought patterns are located over the Northwest, South, Upper Midwest, and East regions. The spatial pattern of the drought regimes is similar for the 12-and 24-month timescale drought. ENSO influences the drought over West and South at decadal timescales throughout the study period(1950–2015) while intermittent significant coherence is observed at interannual timescale. The coherence of NAO and PDO with SPEI-12 is decreased during recent decades. Generally, regional climate model(RCM)-simulated drought patterns are more localized in a smaller area over the region compared to the spatial extent of observed drought patterns. Power spectra of seasonal to interannual variability(2–5-yr period) of all four drought patterns from RCM simulations are similar to those from the observations. However, at larger periodicities(decadal variations)among-RCM spread increases with increasing periods.
基金supported jointly by the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant No.2016YFA0600604)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41461144001 and 41375046)+1 种基金Open Research Fund Program of Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)Grant No.KLME1403the Chinese Academy of Sciences President’s International Fellowship Initiative
文摘A decadal change in summer rainfall in the Asian inland plateau（AIP） region is identified around 1999. This decadal change is characterized by an abrupt decrease in summer rainfall of about 15.7% of the climatological average amount,leading to prolonged drought in the Asian inland plateau region. Both the surface air temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the AIP show a significant increase, while the soil moisture exhibits a decrease, after the late 1990s. Furthermore,the normalized difference vegetation index shows an apparent decreasing trend during 1999–2007. Three different drought indices—the standardized precipitation index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index—present pronounced climate anomalies during 1999–2007, indicating dramatic drought exacerbation in the region after the late 1990s. This decadal change in the summer rainfall may be attributable to a wave-like teleconnection pattern from Western Europe to Asia. A set of model sensitivity experiments suggests that the summer warming sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic could induce this teleconnection pattern over Eurasia, resulting in recent drought in the AIP region.
