One of the most important responsibilities of a supply chain manager is to decide “how much” (or “many”) of inventory items to order and how to transport them. This paper presents four mixed-integer linear program...One of the most important responsibilities of a supply chain manager is to decide “how much” (or “many”) of inventory items to order and how to transport them. This paper presents four mixed-integer linear programming models to help supply chain managers make these decisions for multiple products subject to multiple constraints when suppliers offer quantity discounts and shippers offer freight discounts. Each model deals with one of the possible combinations of all-units, incremental quantity discounts, all-weight and incremental freight discounts. The models are based on a piecewise linear approximation of the number of orders function. They allow any number of linear constraints and determine if independent or common (fixed) cycle ordering has a lower total cost. Results of computational experiments on an example problem are also presented.展开更多
In this present paper, a deterministic lot size model is developed for deteriorating items with incremental quantity discounts. It is assumed that shortages are permitted to occur and fully backlogged. A simple solut...In this present paper, a deterministic lot size model is developed for deteriorating items with incremental quantity discounts. It is assumed that shortages are permitted to occur and fully backlogged. A simple solution procedure is shown for determining the optimal order lot size and the optimal order cycle. A numerical example is used to illustrate how the solution procedure works.展开更多
The substitution process is the most impeccable one in the inventory model for deteriorating items considering their lifetime issues.In this developed model,we worked on the inventory system for substitutable deterior...The substitution process is the most impeccable one in the inventory model for deteriorating items considering their lifetime issues.In this developed model,we worked on the inventory system for substitutable deteriorating items(product 1 and product 2);and both products are similar.The demand of the product is considered to have three different types,including constant,price-dependent,and promotional effort-dependent demand,to show the uncertainty of demand for a product in real life,and it is a manufacturer-retailer supply chain,where the manufacturer gives the pre-payment option and also cash discount to the retailer.In the substitution phase,we considered three various cases according to the inventory level of products 1 and 2.Direct and indirect carbon emissions in production and transportation were also considered.Numerical examples were used to verify the developed model.Sensitivity analysis was carried out to verify the obtained optimal values.展开更多
Private placement has become an increasingly important method of equity refinancing for regulators, listed companies, and investors. This paper analyzes factors influencing private placement discounts based on the con...Private placement has become an increasingly important method of equity refinancing for regulators, listed companies, and investors. This paper analyzes factors influencing private placement discounts based on the controlling shareholder＇s opportunistic behavior and information asymmetry. Our findings indicate that the type of subscriber is a key determinant of the private placement discount, particularly when the subscriber is the controlling shareholder. Asymmetric information between listed companies and investors is another important determinant： The higher the degree of information asymmetry, the greater the private placement discounts.展开更多
“This durian smells amazing!What variety is it?”“Do you offer any discounts for buying ice cream in bulk?”“One durian pizza and one portion of fresh durian,please!”At a tropical-themed shop in Nanning East Stati...“This durian smells amazing!What variety is it?”“Do you offer any discounts for buying ice cream in bulk?”“One durian pizza and one portion of fresh durian,please!”At a tropical-themed shop in Nanning East Station,a chorus of customer questions filled the air.Student clerks smiled as they answered inquiries,swiftly packing each order.展开更多
The polynomial spline model, which belongs to the static term structure model of interest rates, is studied. Every cash flow of the project is discounted relatively accurately by obtaining the discount rate from the s...The polynomial spline model, which belongs to the static term structure model of interest rates, is studied. Every cash flow of the project is discounted relatively accurately by obtaining the discount rate from the static term structure model of interest rates. A simple basic model, which belongs to the dynamic term structure model, is studied, and the option pricing formula under changing risk-free rates is obtained by bringing it into the option pricing formula. Both dynamic and static term structure models are estimated by the use of the data of buy-back rates and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and an example is given to compare the differences between the traditional method and the method under the changes in the interest rates and the discount rates.展开更多
Under the seller's quantity discount, buyers self-organize or rely on a third party to aggregate their pur- chasing quantities to obtain lower prices. Because of the unequal member contributions in the cooperative...Under the seller's quantity discount, buyers self-organize or rely on a third party to aggregate their pur- chasing quantities to obtain lower prices. Because of the unequal member contributions in the cooperative pur- chasing organization, the buyers' strategy is diferent, the members often fluctuate, and the organizations do not sustain themselves. An efective mechanism is necessary to improve the performance of purchasing groups. We study the various forms of cost allocation mechanism in practice. Diferent allocation rules may have influence on the buyers' behavior(i.e., purchasing quantities, whether joining the organization or not). We analyze the serial cost allocation and equilibrium purchasing quantity based on a Nash equilibrium, and the results show that each buyer is worse of when not participating in the existence buying organization of the other buyers. We further find that the serial mechanism just confirms the most efcient Nash equilibrium: reasonable cost allocation rule is necessary for the subjects to identify their optimal strategy.展开更多
With Internet changing the luxury business landscape,new players have emerged such as the Online Private Sales Retailers(OPSRs).These offer online buyers with a choice of limited-time sales to help companies get rid o...With Internet changing the luxury business landscape,new players have emerged such as the Online Private Sales Retailers(OPSRs).These offer online buyers with a choice of limited-time sales to help companies get rid of their overstocks.Luxury brands are no exception.No research has been conducted about how luxury consumers relate with such websites,hence this paper.In an exploratory fashion,interviews with luxury buyers who also buy online on OPSRs,are conducted to get insights on consumers’perceptions and luxury brand equity that selling through OPSRs may have.We find that appropriate product and brand help consumers forget that they are buying brands’unsold stocks,that transferring the luxury webmospheres would be positively perceived,that consumers from these websites are looking for benefits such as freedom of use and brand discovery,rather than personalized offers,that multiple discounts on several OPSRs may damage the luxury-perception of a brand,that the private sales members consider the service to be good enough for the demanded price,and that personalized invitations can help increase online consumers’feelings of desirability and exclusivity.The paper concludes with practical recommendations for both luxury companies and OPSRs.展开更多
The development and deployment of privary preserving supply chain quantity discount contract design can allow supply chain collaborations to take place without revealing any participant＇s data to others, reaping the ...The development and deployment of privary preserving supply chain quantity discount contract design can allow supply chain collaborations to take place without revealing any participant＇s data to others, reaping the benefits of collaborations wbile avoiding the drawbacks of privacy information disclosure. First, secure multi-party computation protocols are applied in the joint-ordering policy between a single supplier and a single retailer, the joint-ordering policy can be conducted without disclosing private cost information of any of the other supply chain partners. Secondly, secure multi-party computation protocols are applied in the privacy preserving supply chain quantity discount contract design between a single supplier and a single retailer. The information disclosure analyses of the algorithm show that： the optimal quantity discount of the jointordering policy can be conducted without disclosing private cost information of any of the other supply chain partners; the above protocol can be implemented without mediators; the privacy preserving quantity discount algorithm can be mutually verifiable and has solved the problem of asymmetric information.展开更多
An important and unresolved question is how human brain regions process information and interact with each other in intertemporal choice related to gains and losses. Using psychophysiological interaction and dynamic c...An important and unresolved question is how human brain regions process information and interact with each other in intertemporal choice related to gains and losses. Using psychophysiological interaction and dynamic causal modeling analyses, we investigated the functional interactions between regions involved in the decision- making process while participants performed temporal discounting tasks in both the gains and losses domains. We found two distinct intrinsic valuation systems underlying temporal discounting in the gains and losses domains： gains were specifically evaluated in the medial regions, including the medial prefrontal and orbitofrontal cortices, and losses were evaluated in the lateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. In addition, immediate reward or pun- ishment was found to modulate the functional interactions between the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and distinct regions in both the gains and losses domains： in the gains domain, the mesolimbic regions; in the losses domain, the medial prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex, and insula. These findings suggest that intertemporal choice of gains and losses might involve distinct valuation systems, and more importantly, separate neural interactions may implement the intertemporal choices of gains and losses. These findings may provide a new biological perspective for understanding the neural mechanisms underlying intertemporal choice of gains and losses.展开更多
Objective: Lung cancer is one of the leading cancers and major causes of cancer mortality worldwide. The economic burden associated with the high mortality of lung cancer is high, which accounts for nearly $180 billio...Objective: Lung cancer is one of the leading cancers and major causes of cancer mortality worldwide. The economic burden associated with the high mortality of lung cancer is high, which accounts for nearly $180 billion on a global scale in 2008. This paper aims to understand the economic burden of lung cancer in terms of disability adjusted life years(DALY) in Australia, the Philippines, and Singapore.Methods: The years of life lost(YLL) and years lost due to disability(YLD) were calculated using the formula developed by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability for diseases, injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020. The same formula is represented in the Global Burden of Disease template provided by the World Health Organization. Appropriate assumptions were made when data were unavailable and projections were performed using regression analysis to obtain data for 2015.Results: The total DALYs due to lung cancer in Australia, the Philippines, and Singapore were 91,695, 38,584, and 12,435,respectively, and the corresponding DALY rates per a population of 1,000 were 4.0, 0.4, and 2.2, respectively, with a discount rate of 3%. When researchers calculated DALYs without the discount rate, the burden of disease increased substantially; the DALYs were 117,438 in Australia, 50,977 in the Philippines, and 16,379 in Singapore. Overall, YLL or premature death accounted for more than 95% of DALYs in these countries.Conclusions: Strategies for prevention, early diagnosis, and prompt treatment must be devised for diseases where the major burden is due to mortality.展开更多
The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth t...The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth transmission paths of risk factors to the investment benefit by identifying 14 overseas oil and gas investment risks in four categories.On the basis of the concept of risk compensation,different compensation mechanisms specific to each risk are designed.The risk and benefit are integrated objectively to develop a comprehensive evaluation model by correcting the recoverable reserve,adjusting benefit evaluation parameters such as investments on exploration and development,and compensating for the changes in risk factors with time through dynamic discount rate.Moreover,two cases studies,namely the evaluations of Project A in Sudan and comparison among Blocks A–G,are used to describe usage method and applicable scope of such evaluation model,respectively.According to the results,oil price is a key influencing factor for enterprise internal risk and industrial risk.Risk compensation reduces comprehensive benefit of overseas oil and gas investment and undermines the investment feasibility and priority of blocks.The research findings of this paper are free from the effects of some subject factors and avoid multi-objective decision making,and also avoid the undesired repeated calculation of risk factors.展开更多
In this paper, a compound Poisson risk model with time-dependent claims is studiedunder a multi-layer dividend strategy. A piecewise integro-differential equation for the Gerber- Shiu function is derived and solved. A...In this paper, a compound Poisson risk model with time-dependent claims is studiedunder a multi-layer dividend strategy. A piecewise integro-differential equation for the Gerber- Shiu function is derived and solved. Asymptotic formulas of the ruin probability are obtained when the claim size distributions are heavy-tailed.展开更多
We consider that the reserve of an insurance company follows a renewal risk process with interest and dividend. For this risk process, we derive integral equations and exact infinite series expressions for the Cerber-...We consider that the reserve of an insurance company follows a renewal risk process with interest and dividend. For this risk process, we derive integral equations and exact infinite series expressions for the Cerber-Shiu discounted penalty function. Then we give lower and upper bounds for the ruin probability. Finally, we present exact expressions for the ruin probability in a special case of renewal risk processes.展开更多
Salinity is one of the major abiotic factors affecting the growth and productivity of crops in Hetao Irrigation District, China. In this study, the salinity tolerances of three local crops, wheat （Triticum aestinum L...Salinity is one of the major abiotic factors affecting the growth and productivity of crops in Hetao Irrigation District, China. In this study, the salinity tolerances of three local crops, wheat （Triticum aestinum L.）, maize （Zea mays L.） and sunflower （Helianthus annuus L.）, growing in 76 farm fields are evaluated with modified discount function. Salinity ecological zones appropriate for these local crops are characterized and a case study is presented for crop salinity ecological zoning. The results show that the yield reductions of wheat, maize and sunflower when grown in saline soils are attributed primarily to a reduction in spikelet number, 1 000-grain weight and seed number per head, respectively. Sunflower is the most tolerant crop among the three which had a salinity tolerance index （ST-index） of 12.24, followed by spring maize and spring wheat with ST-Indices of 9.00 and 7.43, respectively. According to the crop salinity tolerance results, the arable land in the Heping Village of this district was subdivided into four salinity ecological zones： the most suitable, suitable, sub-suitable and unsuitable zones. The area proportion of the most suitable zone for wheat, maize and sunflower within the Heping Village was 27.5, 46.5 and 77.5%, respectively. Most of the most suitable zone occurred in the western part of the village. The results of this study provide the scientific basis for optimizing the local major crop distribution and improving cultural practices management in Hetao Irrigation District.展开更多
In order to achieve the information fusion in the time domain based on the evidence theory, an evidence combination method in the time domain based on reliability and importance is proposed according to the idea of ev...In order to achieve the information fusion in the time domain based on the evidence theory, an evidence combination method in the time domain based on reliability and importance is proposed according to the idea of evidence discount. Firstly, the distortion of the time-domain evidence is judged based on single exponential smoothing. The real-time reliability of the evidence at the adjacent time is obtained by the real-time reliability assessment method of the evidence based on the credibility decay model.Then, the relative importance of the evidence at the adjacent time is obtained by comprehensively considering improved conflict degree and uncertainty. Finally, based on the criterion of evidence discount and the Dempster’s rule of combination, the evidence combination is carried out to achieve the sequential combination of time-domain evidence. The numerical simulation and analysis show that this method has fully embodied the dynamic characteristics of time-domain evidence combination, and it has strong processing ability for conflict information and anti-disturbing ability.The proposed method has good applicability to information fusion in the time domain.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to consider the expected value of a discounted penalty due at ruin in the Erlang（2） risk process under constant interest force. An integro-differential equation satisfied by the expected...The purpose of this paper is to consider the expected value of a discounted penalty due at ruin in the Erlang（2） risk process under constant interest force. An integro-differential equation satisfied by the expected value and a second-order differential equation for the Laplace transform of the expected value are derived. In addition, the paper will present the recursive algorithm for the joint distribution of the surplus immediately before ruin and the deficit at ruin. Finally, by the differential equation, the defective renewal equation and the explicit expression for the expected value are given in the interest-free case.展开更多
The emergence of cooperation still remains a fundamental conundrum in the social and behavior sciences.We introduce a new mechanism,deposit mechanism,into theoretical model to explore how this mechanism promotes coope...The emergence of cooperation still remains a fundamental conundrum in the social and behavior sciences.We introduce a new mechanism,deposit mechanism,into theoretical model to explore how this mechanism promotes cooperation in a well-mixed population.Firstly,we extend the common binary-strategy combination of cooperation and defection in public good game by adding a third strategy,namely,deposit cooperation.The players with deposit cooperation strategy pay a deposit in advance to obtain the benefits of public good at a lower contributions compared with the players with cooperation strategy,when the provision of public good is successful.Then,we explore the evolution of cooperation in the public good game with deposit by means of the replicator dynamics.Theoretical computations and stimulations show that the deposit mechanism can promote cooperation in a well-mixed population,and the numbers of equilibrium point are determined by variables of public good game.On the one hand,when the coexistence of cooperators and defectors is the stable equilibrium point in the evolutionary system,increasing the threshold of public good and adopting the weak altruism way for share benefits can enhance the level of cooperation in the population.On the other hand,if the coexistence of deposit cooperators and defectors is the stable equilibrium point,it is effective to promote the deposit cooperation by lowering the values of discount and deposit,and raising the threshold of public good.展开更多
In this paper, we consider a compound Poisson risk model with taxes paid according to a loss-carry-forward system and dividends paid under a threshold strategy. First, the closed-form expression of the probability fun...In this paper, we consider a compound Poisson risk model with taxes paid according to a loss-carry-forward system and dividends paid under a threshold strategy. First, the closed-form expression of the probability function for the total number of taxation periods over the lifetime of the surplus process is derived. Second, analytical expression of the expected accumulated discounted dividends paid between two consecutive taxation periods is provided. In addition, explicit expressions are also given for the exponential individual claims.展开更多
文摘One of the most important responsibilities of a supply chain manager is to decide “how much” (or “many”) of inventory items to order and how to transport them. This paper presents four mixed-integer linear programming models to help supply chain managers make these decisions for multiple products subject to multiple constraints when suppliers offer quantity discounts and shippers offer freight discounts. Each model deals with one of the possible combinations of all-units, incremental quantity discounts, all-weight and incremental freight discounts. The models are based on a piecewise linear approximation of the number of orders function. They allow any number of linear constraints and determine if independent or common (fixed) cycle ordering has a lower total cost. Results of computational experiments on an example problem are also presented.
文摘In this present paper, a deterministic lot size model is developed for deteriorating items with incremental quantity discounts. It is assumed that shortages are permitted to occur and fully backlogged. A simple solution procedure is shown for determining the optimal order lot size and the optimal order cycle. A numerical example is used to illustrate how the solution procedure works.
文摘The substitution process is the most impeccable one in the inventory model for deteriorating items considering their lifetime issues.In this developed model,we worked on the inventory system for substitutable deteriorating items(product 1 and product 2);and both products are similar.The demand of the product is considered to have three different types,including constant,price-dependent,and promotional effort-dependent demand,to show the uncertainty of demand for a product in real life,and it is a manufacturer-retailer supply chain,where the manufacturer gives the pre-payment option and also cash discount to the retailer.In the substitution phase,we considered three various cases according to the inventory level of products 1 and 2.Direct and indirect carbon emissions in production and transportation were also considered.Numerical examples were used to verify the developed model.Sensitivity analysis was carried out to verify the obtained optimal values.
基金Acknowledgments This paper is supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China （No. 10CJY007） and the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics （2010XG072）. We greatly appreciate the extensive assistance from Katherine Ye, Xiaoqin Qi, and Yichen Deng.
文摘Private placement has become an increasingly important method of equity refinancing for regulators, listed companies, and investors. This paper analyzes factors influencing private placement discounts based on the controlling shareholder＇s opportunistic behavior and information asymmetry. Our findings indicate that the type of subscriber is a key determinant of the private placement discount, particularly when the subscriber is the controlling shareholder. Asymmetric information between listed companies and investors is another important determinant： The higher the degree of information asymmetry, the greater the private placement discounts.
文摘“This durian smells amazing!What variety is it?”“Do you offer any discounts for buying ice cream in bulk?”“One durian pizza and one portion of fresh durian,please!”At a tropical-themed shop in Nanning East Station,a chorus of customer questions filled the air.Student clerks smiled as they answered inquiries,swiftly packing each order.
基金The Achievements of Young Fund Project of Humanitiesand Social Science of Ministry of Education(No.07JC790028)the NationalNatural Science Foundation of China (No.70671025).
文摘The polynomial spline model, which belongs to the static term structure model of interest rates, is studied. Every cash flow of the project is discounted relatively accurately by obtaining the discount rate from the static term structure model of interest rates. A simple basic model, which belongs to the dynamic term structure model, is studied, and the option pricing formula under changing risk-free rates is obtained by bringing it into the option pricing formula. Both dynamic and static term structure models are estimated by the use of the data of buy-back rates and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and an example is given to compare the differences between the traditional method and the method under the changes in the interest rates and the discount rates.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.70932004)the Social Science Foun-dation of China(No.11&ZD174)the Foundation of Humanities and Social Sciences in Universities of Shandong(No.J13WG68)
文摘Under the seller's quantity discount, buyers self-organize or rely on a third party to aggregate their pur- chasing quantities to obtain lower prices. Because of the unequal member contributions in the cooperative pur- chasing organization, the buyers' strategy is diferent, the members often fluctuate, and the organizations do not sustain themselves. An efective mechanism is necessary to improve the performance of purchasing groups. We study the various forms of cost allocation mechanism in practice. Diferent allocation rules may have influence on the buyers' behavior(i.e., purchasing quantities, whether joining the organization or not). We analyze the serial cost allocation and equilibrium purchasing quantity based on a Nash equilibrium, and the results show that each buyer is worse of when not participating in the existence buying organization of the other buyers. We further find that the serial mechanism just confirms the most efcient Nash equilibrium: reasonable cost allocation rule is necessary for the subjects to identify their optimal strategy.
文摘With Internet changing the luxury business landscape,new players have emerged such as the Online Private Sales Retailers(OPSRs).These offer online buyers with a choice of limited-time sales to help companies get rid of their overstocks.Luxury brands are no exception.No research has been conducted about how luxury consumers relate with such websites,hence this paper.In an exploratory fashion,interviews with luxury buyers who also buy online on OPSRs,are conducted to get insights on consumers’perceptions and luxury brand equity that selling through OPSRs may have.We find that appropriate product and brand help consumers forget that they are buying brands’unsold stocks,that transferring the luxury webmospheres would be positively perceived,that consumers from these websites are looking for benefits such as freedom of use and brand discovery,rather than personalized offers,that multiple discounts on several OPSRs may damage the luxury-perception of a brand,that the private sales members consider the service to be good enough for the demanded price,and that personalized invitations can help increase online consumers’feelings of desirability and exclusivity.The paper concludes with practical recommendations for both luxury companies and OPSRs.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.70771026)
文摘The development and deployment of privary preserving supply chain quantity discount contract design can allow supply chain collaborations to take place without revealing any participant＇s data to others, reaping the benefits of collaborations wbile avoiding the drawbacks of privacy information disclosure. First, secure multi-party computation protocols are applied in the joint-ordering policy between a single supplier and a single retailer, the joint-ordering policy can be conducted without disclosing private cost information of any of the other supply chain partners. Secondly, secure multi-party computation protocols are applied in the privacy preserving supply chain quantity discount contract design between a single supplier and a single retailer. The information disclosure analyses of the algorithm show that： the optimal quantity discount of the jointordering policy can be conducted without disclosing private cost information of any of the other supply chain partners; the above protocol can be implemented without mediators; the privacy preserving quantity discount algorithm can be mutually verifiable and has solved the problem of asymmetric information.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71471171,71071150,91432302,31620103905,31471005,and 71761167001)the Science Frontier Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(QYZDJSSW-SMC019)+2 种基金the Shenzhen Peacock Plan(KQTD2015033016104926)the Guangdong Pearl River Talents Plan Innovative and Entrepreneurial Team(2016ZT06S220)the CAS Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science,Institute of Psychology(Y5CX052003)
文摘An important and unresolved question is how human brain regions process information and interact with each other in intertemporal choice related to gains and losses. Using psychophysiological interaction and dynamic causal modeling analyses, we investigated the functional interactions between regions involved in the decision- making process while participants performed temporal discounting tasks in both the gains and losses domains. We found two distinct intrinsic valuation systems underlying temporal discounting in the gains and losses domains： gains were specifically evaluated in the medial regions, including the medial prefrontal and orbitofrontal cortices, and losses were evaluated in the lateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. In addition, immediate reward or pun- ishment was found to modulate the functional interactions between the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and distinct regions in both the gains and losses domains： in the gains domain, the mesolimbic regions; in the losses domain, the medial prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex, and insula. These findings suggest that intertemporal choice of gains and losses might involve distinct valuation systems, and more importantly, separate neural interactions may implement the intertemporal choices of gains and losses. These findings may provide a new biological perspective for understanding the neural mechanisms underlying intertemporal choice of gains and losses.
文摘Objective: Lung cancer is one of the leading cancers and major causes of cancer mortality worldwide. The economic burden associated with the high mortality of lung cancer is high, which accounts for nearly $180 billion on a global scale in 2008. This paper aims to understand the economic burden of lung cancer in terms of disability adjusted life years(DALY) in Australia, the Philippines, and Singapore.Methods: The years of life lost(YLL) and years lost due to disability(YLD) were calculated using the formula developed by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability for diseases, injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020. The same formula is represented in the Global Burden of Disease template provided by the World Health Organization. Appropriate assumptions were made when data were unavailable and projections were performed using regression analysis to obtain data for 2015.Results: The total DALYs due to lung cancer in Australia, the Philippines, and Singapore were 91,695, 38,584, and 12,435,respectively, and the corresponding DALY rates per a population of 1,000 were 4.0, 0.4, and 2.2, respectively, with a discount rate of 3%. When researchers calculated DALYs without the discount rate, the burden of disease increased substantially; the DALYs were 117,438 in Australia, 50,977 in the Philippines, and 16,379 in Singapore. Overall, YLL or premature death accounted for more than 95% of DALYs in these countries.Conclusions: Strategies for prevention, early diagnosis, and prompt treatment must be devised for diseases where the major burden is due to mortality.
文摘The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth transmission paths of risk factors to the investment benefit by identifying 14 overseas oil and gas investment risks in four categories.On the basis of the concept of risk compensation,different compensation mechanisms specific to each risk are designed.The risk and benefit are integrated objectively to develop a comprehensive evaluation model by correcting the recoverable reserve,adjusting benefit evaluation parameters such as investments on exploration and development,and compensating for the changes in risk factors with time through dynamic discount rate.Moreover,two cases studies,namely the evaluations of Project A in Sudan and comparison among Blocks A–G,are used to describe usage method and applicable scope of such evaluation model,respectively.According to the results,oil price is a key influencing factor for enterprise internal risk and industrial risk.Risk compensation reduces comprehensive benefit of overseas oil and gas investment and undermines the investment feasibility and priority of blocks.The research findings of this paper are free from the effects of some subject factors and avoid multi-objective decision making,and also avoid the undesired repeated calculation of risk factors.
基金Surported by the Third Stage of 211 ProjectInnovative Talent Training Project of S-09110the Chongqing University Postgraduates’ Science and Innovation Fund (200911B1B0110327)
文摘In this paper, a compound Poisson risk model with time-dependent claims is studiedunder a multi-layer dividend strategy. A piecewise integro-differential equation for the Gerber- Shiu function is derived and solved. Asymptotic formulas of the ruin probability are obtained when the claim size distributions are heavy-tailed.
文摘We consider that the reserve of an insurance company follows a renewal risk process with interest and dividend. For this risk process, we derive integral equations and exact infinite series expressions for the Cerber-Shiu discounted penalty function. Then we give lower and upper bounds for the ruin probability. Finally, we present exact expressions for the ruin probability in a special case of renewal risk processes.
基金supported by the Special Fund for Agro-Scientific Research in the Public Interest, China (2009030012-3)
文摘Salinity is one of the major abiotic factors affecting the growth and productivity of crops in Hetao Irrigation District, China. In this study, the salinity tolerances of three local crops, wheat （Triticum aestinum L.）, maize （Zea mays L.） and sunflower （Helianthus annuus L.）, growing in 76 farm fields are evaluated with modified discount function. Salinity ecological zones appropriate for these local crops are characterized and a case study is presented for crop salinity ecological zoning. The results show that the yield reductions of wheat, maize and sunflower when grown in saline soils are attributed primarily to a reduction in spikelet number, 1 000-grain weight and seed number per head, respectively. Sunflower is the most tolerant crop among the three which had a salinity tolerance index （ST-index） of 12.24, followed by spring maize and spring wheat with ST-Indices of 9.00 and 7.43, respectively. According to the crop salinity tolerance results, the arable land in the Heping Village of this district was subdivided into four salinity ecological zones： the most suitable, suitable, sub-suitable and unsuitable zones. The area proportion of the most suitable zone for wheat, maize and sunflower within the Heping Village was 27.5, 46.5 and 77.5%, respectively. Most of the most suitable zone occurred in the western part of the village. The results of this study provide the scientific basis for optimizing the local major crop distribution and improving cultural practices management in Hetao Irrigation District.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71571190 71601183+1 种基金 L1534031)the Shanxi Province Natural Science Foundation of China(2014JQ2-7045)
文摘In order to achieve the information fusion in the time domain based on the evidence theory, an evidence combination method in the time domain based on reliability and importance is proposed according to the idea of evidence discount. Firstly, the distortion of the time-domain evidence is judged based on single exponential smoothing. The real-time reliability of the evidence at the adjacent time is obtained by the real-time reliability assessment method of the evidence based on the credibility decay model.Then, the relative importance of the evidence at the adjacent time is obtained by comprehensively considering improved conflict degree and uncertainty. Finally, based on the criterion of evidence discount and the Dempster’s rule of combination, the evidence combination is carried out to achieve the sequential combination of time-domain evidence. The numerical simulation and analysis show that this method has fully embodied the dynamic characteristics of time-domain evidence combination, and it has strong processing ability for conflict information and anti-disturbing ability.The proposed method has good applicability to information fusion in the time domain.
基金supported by the National Natural science Foundation of china(70271069)
文摘The purpose of this paper is to consider the expected value of a discounted penalty due at ruin in the Erlang（2） risk process under constant interest force. An integro-differential equation satisfied by the expected value and a second-order differential equation for the Laplace transform of the expected value are derived. In addition, the paper will present the recursive algorithm for the joint distribution of the surplus immediately before ruin and the deficit at ruin. Finally, by the differential equation, the defective renewal equation and the explicit expression for the expected value are given in the interest-free case.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71871171,71871173,and 71701076)
文摘The emergence of cooperation still remains a fundamental conundrum in the social and behavior sciences.We introduce a new mechanism,deposit mechanism,into theoretical model to explore how this mechanism promotes cooperation in a well-mixed population.Firstly,we extend the common binary-strategy combination of cooperation and defection in public good game by adding a third strategy,namely,deposit cooperation.The players with deposit cooperation strategy pay a deposit in advance to obtain the benefits of public good at a lower contributions compared with the players with cooperation strategy,when the provision of public good is successful.Then,we explore the evolution of cooperation in the public good game with deposit by means of the replicator dynamics.Theoretical computations and stimulations show that the deposit mechanism can promote cooperation in a well-mixed population,and the numbers of equilibrium point are determined by variables of public good game.On the one hand,when the coexistence of cooperators and defectors is the stable equilibrium point in the evolutionary system,increasing the threshold of public good and adopting the weak altruism way for share benefits can enhance the level of cooperation in the population.On the other hand,if the coexistence of deposit cooperators and defectors is the stable equilibrium point,it is effective to promote the deposit cooperation by lowering the values of discount and deposit,and raising the threshold of public good.
基金Supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (S2011010004511)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (201120102020005)
文摘In this paper, we consider a compound Poisson risk model with taxes paid according to a loss-carry-forward system and dividends paid under a threshold strategy. First, the closed-form expression of the probability function for the total number of taxation periods over the lifetime of the surplus process is derived. Second, analytical expression of the expected accumulated discounted dividends paid between two consecutive taxation periods is provided. In addition, explicit expressions are also given for the exponential individual claims.
