Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized ...Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respectively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.展开更多
In this commentary,we first briefly review the significant utilities of household and living arrangement projections and the main types of methods for conduct-ing household projections.In the second and third sections...In this commentary,we first briefly review the significant utilities of household and living arrangement projections and the main types of methods for conduct-ing household projections.In the second and third sections,we summarize basic ideas,data needed,assessments and applications of ProFamy extended cohort-com-ponent methods/software for households and living arrangement projections;and we emphasize the importance to extend the ProFamy methods and software from deterministic to probabilistic households and living arrangement projections.In sec-tion 4,we demonstrate that the ProFamy approach provides an adequate and highly feasible modelling framework to extend probabilistic households and living arrange-ment projections(PHPs),in which the population size/structure projection out-comes are in consistence with those of probabilistic population projections(PPPs)released by United Nations Population Division(UNPD).In the last Section,we dis-cuss and recommend applying the user-friendly R package DemoRates of ProFamy software to estimate rural/urban(or race)-sex-age-specific standard schedules and the demographic summary measures,to conduct analyses and projections,such as single-parent households,caregivers,and care needs/costs for disabled older adults,age-friendly housing and households-based energy demands,etc.for healthy aging and sustainable development studies.Finally,we discuss the prospects of our ongo-ing international collaborative research project to substantially extend ProFamy cohort-component method from deterministic into probabilistic households and living arrangement projection(PHPs).As compared with ProFamy deterministic pro-jection method,the PHPs produces a lot of additional outcomes of probabilistically projected households and living arrangements in 2021-2100 with uncertainty inter-vals that are crucial for healthy aging and sustainable development studies.展开更多
Plug-in electric vehicle(PEV)load modeling is very important in the operation and planning studies of modern power system nowadays.Several parameters and considerations should be taken into account in PEV load modelin...Plug-in electric vehicle(PEV)load modeling is very important in the operation and planning studies of modern power system nowadays.Several parameters and considerations should be taken into account in PEV load modeling,making it a complex problem that should be solved using appropriate techniques.Different techniques have been introduced for PEV load modeling and each of them has individual specifications and features.In this paper,the most popular techniques for PEV load modeling are reviewed and their capabilities are evaluated.Both deterministic and probabilistic methods are investigated and some practical and theoretical hints are presented.Moreover,the characteristics of all techniques are compared with each other and suitable methods for unique applications are proposed.Finally,some potential research areas are presented for future works.展开更多
文摘Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respectively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018RFC2000400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72061137004)+1 种基金the grant awarded by the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China under grant section 2 of the Collaborative Program between China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN).The work of Qiushi Feng was supported by the Academic Research Fund(ACRF-TIER 2)awarded by Ministry of Education of Singaporesupported by the U.S.National Institute of Aging/National Institute of Health(P01AG031719).
文摘In this commentary,we first briefly review the significant utilities of household and living arrangement projections and the main types of methods for conduct-ing household projections.In the second and third sections,we summarize basic ideas,data needed,assessments and applications of ProFamy extended cohort-com-ponent methods/software for households and living arrangement projections;and we emphasize the importance to extend the ProFamy methods and software from deterministic to probabilistic households and living arrangement projections.In sec-tion 4,we demonstrate that the ProFamy approach provides an adequate and highly feasible modelling framework to extend probabilistic households and living arrange-ment projections(PHPs),in which the population size/structure projection out-comes are in consistence with those of probabilistic population projections(PPPs)released by United Nations Population Division(UNPD).In the last Section,we dis-cuss and recommend applying the user-friendly R package DemoRates of ProFamy software to estimate rural/urban(or race)-sex-age-specific standard schedules and the demographic summary measures,to conduct analyses and projections,such as single-parent households,caregivers,and care needs/costs for disabled older adults,age-friendly housing and households-based energy demands,etc.for healthy aging and sustainable development studies.Finally,we discuss the prospects of our ongo-ing international collaborative research project to substantially extend ProFamy cohort-component method from deterministic into probabilistic households and living arrangement projection(PHPs).As compared with ProFamy deterministic pro-jection method,the PHPs produces a lot of additional outcomes of probabilistically projected households and living arrangements in 2021-2100 with uncertainty inter-vals that are crucial for healthy aging and sustainable development studies.
文摘Plug-in electric vehicle(PEV)load modeling is very important in the operation and planning studies of modern power system nowadays.Several parameters and considerations should be taken into account in PEV load modeling,making it a complex problem that should be solved using appropriate techniques.Different techniques have been introduced for PEV load modeling and each of them has individual specifications and features.In this paper,the most popular techniques for PEV load modeling are reviewed and their capabilities are evaluated.Both deterministic and probabilistic methods are investigated and some practical and theoretical hints are presented.Moreover,the characteristics of all techniques are compared with each other and suitable methods for unique applications are proposed.Finally,some potential research areas are presented for future works.
