An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited i...An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.展开更多
沙戈荒区域丰富的风光热资源有利于支撑高能耗数据中心集群快速发展,但会使其面临算力负载强时变性、风光出力间歇性及恶劣天气离网运行可靠性的多重挑战。为此,该文提出一种考虑任务负载需求响应及源荷不确定性的数据中心集群微网电-...沙戈荒区域丰富的风光热资源有利于支撑高能耗数据中心集群快速发展,但会使其面临算力负载强时变性、风光出力间歇性及恶劣天气离网运行可靠性的多重挑战。为此,该文提出一种考虑任务负载需求响应及源荷不确定性的数据中心集群微网电-热设备容量协同优化配置方法。首先,根据计算任务对时延的敏感性,精细化建模可推迟可中断、可推迟不可中断及不可推迟3类任务负载的时间约束,在此基础上综合源荷不确定性建立数据中心集群微网“并网-离网”2阶段分布鲁棒优化模型,采用列与约束生成(column and constraint generation,C&CG)算法求解。以青海某实际数据中心为案例的分析结果表明:所提出的方法可使微网容量配置成本下降约25.8%,弃风率下降约56%,并大幅提高数据中心集群微网离网运行可靠性。该文研究为沙戈荒区域绿色低碳数据中心建设提供了理论支撑。展开更多
Fresh products have the characteristics of perishable, small batch and high frequency. Therefore, for fresh food e-commerce enterprises, market demand forecasting is particularly important. This paper takes the sales ...Fresh products have the characteristics of perishable, small batch and high frequency. Therefore, for fresh food e-commerce enterprises, market demand forecasting is particularly important. This paper takes the sales data of a fresh food e-commerce enterprise as the logistics demand, analyzes the influence of time and meteorological factors on the demand, extracts the characteristic factors with greater influence, and proposes a logistics demand forecast scheme of fresh food e-commerce based on the Bi-LSTM model. The scheme is compared with other schemes based on the BP neural network and LSTM neural network models. The experimental results show that the Bi-LSTM model has good prediction performance on the problem of logistics demand prediction. This facilitates further research on some supply chain issues, such as business decision-making, inventory control, and logistics capacity planning.展开更多
基金Project(51606225) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2016JJ2144) supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(502221703) supported by Graduate Independent Explorative Innovation Foundation of Central South University,China
文摘An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.
文摘沙戈荒区域丰富的风光热资源有利于支撑高能耗数据中心集群快速发展,但会使其面临算力负载强时变性、风光出力间歇性及恶劣天气离网运行可靠性的多重挑战。为此,该文提出一种考虑任务负载需求响应及源荷不确定性的数据中心集群微网电-热设备容量协同优化配置方法。首先,根据计算任务对时延的敏感性,精细化建模可推迟可中断、可推迟不可中断及不可推迟3类任务负载的时间约束,在此基础上综合源荷不确定性建立数据中心集群微网“并网-离网”2阶段分布鲁棒优化模型,采用列与约束生成(column and constraint generation,C&CG)算法求解。以青海某实际数据中心为案例的分析结果表明:所提出的方法可使微网容量配置成本下降约25.8%,弃风率下降约56%,并大幅提高数据中心集群微网离网运行可靠性。该文研究为沙戈荒区域绿色低碳数据中心建设提供了理论支撑。
文摘Fresh products have the characteristics of perishable, small batch and high frequency. Therefore, for fresh food e-commerce enterprises, market demand forecasting is particularly important. This paper takes the sales data of a fresh food e-commerce enterprise as the logistics demand, analyzes the influence of time and meteorological factors on the demand, extracts the characteristic factors with greater influence, and proposes a logistics demand forecast scheme of fresh food e-commerce based on the Bi-LSTM model. The scheme is compared with other schemes based on the BP neural network and LSTM neural network models. The experimental results show that the Bi-LSTM model has good prediction performance on the problem of logistics demand prediction. This facilitates further research on some supply chain issues, such as business decision-making, inventory control, and logistics capacity planning.
