In this study we extend the dimension-reduced projection-four dimensional variational data assimilation （DRP-4DVar） approach to allow the analysis time to be tunable, so that the intervals between analysis time and ...In this study we extend the dimension-reduced projection-four dimensional variational data assimilation （DRP-4DVar） approach to allow the analysis time to be tunable, so that the intervals between analysis time and observation times can be shortened. Due to the limits of the perfect-model assumption and the tangentlinear hypothesis, the analysis-time tuning is expected to have the potential to further improve analyses and forecasts. Various sensitivity experiments using the Lorenz-96 model are conducted to test the impact of analysistime tuning on the performance of the new approach under perfect and imperfect model scenarios, respectively. Comparing three DRP-4DVar schemes having the analysis time at the start, middle, and end of the assimilation window, respectively, it is found that the scheme with the analysis time in the middle of the window outperforms the others, on the whole. Moreover, the advantage of this scheme is more pronounced when a longer assimilation window is adopted or more observations are assimilated.展开更多
A four dimensional variational data assimilation （4DVar） based on a dimension-reduced projection （DRP-4DVar） has been developed as a hybrid of the 4DVar and Ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） concepts. Its good flow-...A four dimensional variational data assimilation （4DVar） based on a dimension-reduced projection （DRP-4DVar） has been developed as a hybrid of the 4DVar and Ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） concepts. Its good flow-dependent features are demonstrated in single-point experiments through comparisons with adjointbased 4DVar and three-dimensional variational data （3DVar） assimilations using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model （MM5）. The results reveal that DRP-4DVar can reasonably generate a background error covariance matrix （simply B-matrix） during the assimilation window from an initial estimation using a number of initial condition dependent historical forecast samples. In contrast, flow-dependence in the B-matrix of MM5 4DVar is barely detectable. It is argued that use of diagonal estimation in the B-matrix of the MM5 4DVar method at the initial time leads to this failure. The experiments also show that the increments produced by DRP-4DVar are anisotropic and no longer symmetric with respect to observation location due to the effects of the weather trends captured in its B-matrix. This differs from the MM5 3DVar which does not consider the influence of heterogeneous forcing on the correlation structure of the B-matrix, a condition that is realistic for many situations. Thus, the MM5 3DVar assimilation could only present an isotropic and homogeneous structure in its increments.展开更多
Accurate forecast of rainstorms associated with the mei-yu front has been an important issue for the Chinese economy and society. In July 1998 a heavy rainstorm hit the Yangzi River valley and received widespread atte...Accurate forecast of rainstorms associated with the mei-yu front has been an important issue for the Chinese economy and society. In July 1998 a heavy rainstorm hit the Yangzi River valley and received widespread attention from the public because it caused catastrophic damage in China. Several numerical studies have shown that many forecast models, including Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research’s fifth-generation mesoscale model （MM5）, failed to simulate the heavy precipitation over the Yangzi River valley. This study demonstrates that with the optimal initial conditions from the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation （DRP-4DVar） system, MM5 can successfully reproduce these observed rainfall amounts and can capture many important mesoscale features, including the southwestward shear line and the low-level jet stream. The study also indicates that the failure of previous forecasts can be mainly attributed to the lack of mesoscale details in the initial conditions of the models.展开更多
基金supported by the Special Project of the Meteorological Sector program Grant No GYHY(QX) 200906011the 973 project (Grant No 2004CB418304)
文摘In this study we extend the dimension-reduced projection-four dimensional variational data assimilation （DRP-4DVar） approach to allow the analysis time to be tunable, so that the intervals between analysis time and observation times can be shortened. Due to the limits of the perfect-model assumption and the tangentlinear hypothesis, the analysis-time tuning is expected to have the potential to further improve analyses and forecasts. Various sensitivity experiments using the Lorenz-96 model are conducted to test the impact of analysistime tuning on the performance of the new approach under perfect and imperfect model scenarios, respectively. Comparing three DRP-4DVar schemes having the analysis time at the start, middle, and end of the assimilation window, respectively, it is found that the scheme with the analysis time in the middle of the window outperforms the others, on the whole. Moreover, the advantage of this scheme is more pronounced when a longer assimilation window is adopted or more observations are assimilated.
基金We acknowledge the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No.2006BAC03B01)the Ministry of Science and Technology of China for funding the 973 project (Grant No.2005CB321703)
文摘A four dimensional variational data assimilation （4DVar） based on a dimension-reduced projection （DRP-4DVar） has been developed as a hybrid of the 4DVar and Ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） concepts. Its good flow-dependent features are demonstrated in single-point experiments through comparisons with adjointbased 4DVar and three-dimensional variational data （3DVar） assimilations using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model （MM5）. The results reveal that DRP-4DVar can reasonably generate a background error covariance matrix （simply B-matrix） during the assimilation window from an initial estimation using a number of initial condition dependent historical forecast samples. In contrast, flow-dependence in the B-matrix of MM5 4DVar is barely detectable. It is argued that use of diagonal estimation in the B-matrix of the MM5 4DVar method at the initial time leads to this failure. The experiments also show that the increments produced by DRP-4DVar are anisotropic and no longer symmetric with respect to observation location due to the effects of the weather trends captured in its B-matrix. This differs from the MM5 3DVar which does not consider the influence of heterogeneous forcing on the correlation structure of the B-matrix, a condition that is realistic for many situations. Thus, the MM5 3DVar assimilation could only present an isotropic and homogeneous structure in its increments.
基金the National Basic Research Program (973 Program) (No.2010CB 951604)the China Meteorological Administration for the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (meteorology) [Grant No. GYHY(QX)200906009]+1 种基金the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (No. 2010AA012304)the LASG free exploration fund
文摘Accurate forecast of rainstorms associated with the mei-yu front has been an important issue for the Chinese economy and society. In July 1998 a heavy rainstorm hit the Yangzi River valley and received widespread attention from the public because it caused catastrophic damage in China. Several numerical studies have shown that many forecast models, including Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research’s fifth-generation mesoscale model （MM5）, failed to simulate the heavy precipitation over the Yangzi River valley. This study demonstrates that with the optimal initial conditions from the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation （DRP-4DVar） system, MM5 can successfully reproduce these observed rainfall amounts and can capture many important mesoscale features, including the southwestward shear line and the low-level jet stream. The study also indicates that the failure of previous forecasts can be mainly attributed to the lack of mesoscale details in the initial conditions of the models.
