Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts ...Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts and their lag time from meteorological droughts at a daily scale.In this study,precipitation data were collected to calculate the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and runoff data simulated by the variable infiltration capacity(VIC)model were utilized to compute the standardized runoff index(SRI).The three-threshold run theory was used to identify drought characteristics in China.These drought characteristics were utilized to investigate spatiotemporal variations,seasonal trends,and temporal changes in areas affected by meteorological and hydrological droughts.Additionally,the interconnections and lag effects between meteorological and hydrological droughts were explored.The results indicated that(1)drought occurred during approximately 28%of the past 34 years in China;(2)drought conditions tended to worsen in autumn and weaken in winter;(3)drought-affected areas shifted from northwest to northeast and finally to southern China;and(4)the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts was lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast,with all correlation coefficients exceeding 0.7.The lag times between meteorological and hydrological droughts were longest(5 d)in the Yangtze River,Yellow River,and Hai River basins,and shortest(0 d)in the Tarim River Basin.This study provides a scientific basis for effective early warning of droughts.展开更多
Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture,water resources,ecosystems,and human environment.In the Qilian Mountains,northwestern China,flash droughts are be...Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture,water resources,ecosystems,and human environment.In the Qilian Mountains,northwestern China,flash droughts are becoming more frequently due to the global climate warming.However,the spatiotemporal variations and their driving factors of flash droughts are not clear in this region.In this study,the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5-Land(ERA5-Land)dataset was utilized to identify two types of flash drought events(heatwave-induced and water scarcity-induced flash drought events)that occurred in the growing season(April‒September)during 1981-2020 in this area.The results showed that the frequency of heatwave-induced flash droughts has decreased since 2010,while the frequency of water scarcity-induced flash droughts has declined markedly.Spatially,heatwave-induced flash droughts were predominantly concentrated in the western Qilian Mountains,whereas water scarcity-induced flash droughts were primarily concentrated in the central and eastern Qilian Mountains.A significantly increasing temporal trend in both types of flash droughts in the eastern Qilian Mountains was found.Meanwhile,there was a decreasing temporal trend of heatwave-induced flash droughts in the southwestern part of the region.Additionally,the influence of two major atmospheric modes,i.e.,the El Niño‒Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),on these two types of flash droughts was explored by the Superposed Epoch Analysis.The ENSO mainly influences flash droughts in the central and eastern parts of the Qilian Mountains by altering the strength of the East Asian monsoon,while the NAO mainly affects flash droughts in the entire parts of the Qilian Mountains by inducing anomalous westerlies activity.Our findings have important implications for predicting the evolution of flash drought events in the Qilian Mountains region under continued climate warming.展开更多
Under current climate warming, the growth resilience of plantation forests after extreme droughts has garnered increasing attention. Platycladus orientalis Linn. is an evergreen tree species commonly used for afforest...Under current climate warming, the growth resilience of plantation forests after extreme droughts has garnered increasing attention. Platycladus orientalis Linn. is an evergreen tree species commonly used for afforestation, and the stability of P. orientalis plantation forests in the Loess Hilly region directly affects the ecological and environmental security of the entire Loess Plateau of China.However, systematic analyses of the growth resilience of P. orientalis plantation forests after extreme droughts along precipitation gradients remain scarce. In this study, we collected tree ring samples of P.orientalis along a precipitation gradient(255, 400, and 517 mm) from 2021 to 2023 and used dendroecological methods to explore the growth resilience of P. orientalis to drought stress on the Loess Plateau. Our findings revealed that the growth resilience of P. orientalis increased with increasing precipitation, enabling the trees to recover to the pre-drought growth levels. In regions with low precipitation(255 mm), the plantation forests were more sensitive to extreme droughts, struggling to recover to previous growth levels, necessitating conditional artificial irrigation. In regions with medium precipitation(400 mm), the growth of P. orientalis was significantly limited by drought stress and exhibited some recovery ability after extreme droughts, therefore warranting management through rainwater harvesting and conservation measures. Conversely, in regions with high precipitation(517 mm), the impacts of extreme droughts on P. orientalis plantation forests were relatively minor. This study underscored the need for targeted strategies tailored to different precipitation conditions rather than a "one-size-fits-all" approach to utilize precipitation resources effectively and maximize the ecological benefits of plantation forests. The findings will help maintain the stability of plantation forests and improve their ecosystem service functions in arid and semi-arid areas.展开更多
Since the mid-20th century,the Mongolian Plateau(MP)has experienced decadal droughts coupled with extreme heatwaves,severely affecting regional ecology and social development.However,the mechanisms behind these decada...Since the mid-20th century,the Mongolian Plateau(MP)has experienced decadal droughts coupled with extreme heatwaves,severely affecting regional ecology and social development.However,the mechanisms behind these decadalscale compound heatwavedrought events remain debated.Here,using reconstructions and simulations from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble,we demonstrate that,over the last millennium,decadal droughts on the MP occurred under both warm and cold conditions,differing from recent compound heatwavedrought events.We found that by examining temperature changes during these drought periods,the distinct influences of external forcings and internal variability can be simply and effectively distinguished.Specifically,colddry events were primarily driven by volcanic eruptions that weakened the East Asian summer monsoon and midlatitude westerlies,reducing moisture transport to the MP.In contrast,warmdry events were predominantly induced by internal variability,notably the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the expansion of the Barents Sea ice extent.The recent extreme compound event was probably influenced by the combined effects of anthropogenic forcings and internal variability.These findings deepen our understanding of how external forcings and internal variability affect decadal drought events on the MP and highlight that recent compound events are unprecedented in the context of the last millennium.展开更多
Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the curr...Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.展开更多
Droughts that occurred in selected areas located in homogeneous regions of South America during the austral springs(SON)and summers(DJF)from 1982 to 2019 are identified using the Standard Precipitation Index(SPI).Four...Droughts that occurred in selected areas located in homogeneous regions of South America during the austral springs(SON)and summers(DJF)from 1982 to 2019 are identified using the Standard Precipitation Index(SPI).Four areas were analyzed for droughts in SON,and three areas were analyzed for droughts in DJF.The areas in the Amazon suffered from the majority of their droughts during El Niño years,while most of the droughts in the areas of southern Brazil,Uruguay,and North Argentina occurred during La Niña years.In southeastern and central-western parts of Brazil,droughts occurred during both phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and also during neutral years.Thus,other processes besides ENSO are likely related to the observed droughts.The droughts were investigated for each area and month,and composites of atmospheric and oceanic variables during both seasons were analyzed for the selected cases.Regional and large-scale field composites were examined to identify the main processes associated with dry conditions in the different areas.Regional features were related to the influence of high pressure over southern and southeastern areas and the divergence of moisture flux in all areas.Meridional circulations contributed to subsidence over the dry regions.The large-scale influential features include SST anomalies,wavetrains over the South Pacific Ocean with centers of action over South America that produced subsidence in the study areas,and convection anomalies in the Maritime continent and surrounding areas.Therefore,the droughts were associated with a combination of regional and large-scale features that produced subsidence over the analyzed regions.展开更多
Extreme droughts are anticipated to have detrimental impacts on forest ecosystems,especially in water-limited regions,due to the influence of climate change.However,considerable uncertainty remains regarding the patte...Extreme droughts are anticipated to have detrimental impacts on forest ecosystems,especially in water-limited regions,due to the influence of climate change.However,considerable uncertainty remains regarding the patterns in species-specific responses to extreme droughts.Here,we conducted a study integrating dendrochronology and remote sensing methods to investigate the mosaic-distributed maple-oak(native)natural forests and poplar plantations(introduced)in the Horqin Sandy Land,Northeast China.We assessed the impacts of extreme droughts on tree performances by measuring interannual variations in radial growth and vegetation index.The results showed that precipitation and self-calibrated palmer drought severity index(scPDSI)are the major factors influencing tree-ring width index(RWI)and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).The severe droughts between 2000 and 2004 resulted in reduced RWI in the three studied tree species as well as led to NDVI reductions in both the maple-oak natural forests and the poplar plantations.The RWI reached the nadir during the2000-2004 severe droughts and remained at low levels two years after the severe drought,creating a legacy effect.In contrast to the lack of significant correlation between RWI and scPDSI,NDVI exhibited a significant positive correlation with scPDSI indicating the greater sensitivity of canopy performance to droughts than radial growth.Furthermore,interspecific differences in RWI and NDVI responses were observed,with the fast-growing poplar species experiencing a more significant RWI decrease and more negative NDVI anomaly during severe droughts than native species,highlighting the species-specific trade-offs between drought resilience and growth rate.This study emphasizes the importance of combining tree-level radial growth with landscape-scale canopy remote sensing to understand forest resilience and response.Our study improves our understanding of forest responses to extreme drought and highlights species differences in climate responses,offering crucial insights for optimizing species selection in sustainable afforestation and forest management in water-limited regions under the influence of climate change.展开更多
Climate change is expected to have long-term impacts on drought and wildfire risks in Oregon as summers continue to become warmer and drier. This paper investigates the projected changes in drought characteristics and...Climate change is expected to have long-term impacts on drought and wildfire risks in Oregon as summers continue to become warmer and drier. This paper investigates the projected changes in drought characteristics and drought propagation in the Umatilla River Basin in northeastern Oregon for mid-century(2030–2059) and late-century(2070–2099) climate scenarios. Drought characteristics for projected climates were determined using downscaled CMIP5 climate datasets from ten climate models and Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate effects on hydrologic processes. Short-term(three months) drought characteristics(frequency, duration, and severity) were analyzed using four drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI-3), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI-3), Standardized Streamflow Index(SSI-3), and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index(SSMI-3). Results indicate that short-term meteorological droughts are projected to become more prevalent, with up to a 20% increase in the frequency of SPI-3drought events. Short-term hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent(average increase of 11% in frequency of SSI-3 drought events), more severe, and longer in duration(average increase of 8% for short-term droughts).Similarly, short-term agricultural droughts are projected to become more frequent(average increase of 28% in frequency of SSMI-3 drought events) but slightly shorter in duration(average decrease of 4%) in the future. Historically, drought propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought is shorter than from meteorological to agricultural drought in most sub-basins. For the projected climate scenarios, the decrease in drought propagation time will likely stress the timing and capacity of water supply in the basin for irrigation and other uses.展开更多
Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly...Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly under abnormal atmospheric conditions(e.g., quasi-stationary high-pressure systems), and can persist for weeks, months, or even years.展开更多
With the precipitation data of 113 stations in East China during the last 50 years,the characteristics of the precipitation,including Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period (PC...With the precipitation data of 113 stations in East China during the last 50 years,the characteristics of the precipitation,including Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP) and their tendencies,are analyzed.The results show that the PCD in the northern part of the region is markedly higher than that in the southern part,but the PCP in the south is much earlier than that in the north by about one and a half months,which displays significant regional differences in precipitation.With the global warming,precipitation over East China shows an increasing tendency,but PCD displays a trend that is neither increasing nor decreasing.At the same time,the PCP is later than before,which can be mainly found in Jiangxi and southern Henan provinces.As a result,there are strong associations between the precipitation,PCD and PCP,which can be shown in the years with more precipitation,stronger PCD and later-than-usual PCP.In a word,the abnormal distribution of precipitation,PCP,and PCD over East China results in more extreme events of precipitation and more droughts and floods.展开更多
Droughts and soil erosion are among the most prominent climatic driven hazards in drylands,leading to detrimental environmental impacts,such as degraded lands,deteriorated ecosystem services and biodiversity,and incre...Droughts and soil erosion are among the most prominent climatic driven hazards in drylands,leading to detrimental environmental impacts,such as degraded lands,deteriorated ecosystem services and biodiversity,and increased greenhouse gas emissions.In response to the current lack of studies combining drought conditions and soil erosion processes,in this study,we developed a comprehensive Geographic Information System(GIS)-based approach to assess soil erosion and droughts,thereby revealing the relationship between soil erosion and droughts under an arid climate.The vegetation condition index(VCI)and temperature condition index(TCI)derived respectively from the enhanced vegetation index(EVI)MOD13A2 and land surface temperature(LST)MOD11A2 products were combined to generate the vegetation health index(VHI).The VHI has been conceived as an efficient tool to monitor droughts in the Negueb watershed,southeastern Tunisia.The revised universal soil loss equation(RUSLE)model was applied to quantitatively estimate soil erosion.The relationship between soil erosion and droughts was investigated through Pearson correlation.Results exhibited that the Negueb watershed experienced recurrent mild to extreme drought during 2000–2016.The average soil erosion rate was determined to be 1.8 t/(hm2•a).The mountainous western part of the watershed was the most vulnerable not only to soil erosion but also to droughts.The slope length and steepness factor was shown to be the most significant controlling parameter driving soil erosion.The relationship between droughts and soil erosion had a positive correlation(r=0.3);however,the correlation was highly varied spatially across the watershed.Drought was linked to soil erosion in the Negueb watershed.The current study provides insight for natural disaster risk assessment,land managers,and stake-holders to apply appropriate management measures to promote sustainable development goals in fragile environments.展开更多
Climate change impacts on Earth’s atmosphere have caused drastic changes in the environment of most regions of the world. The Middle East region ranks among the worst affected of these regions. This has taken forms o...Climate change impacts on Earth’s atmosphere have caused drastic changes in the environment of most regions of the world. The Middle East region ranks among the worst affected of these regions. This has taken forms of increasing atmospheric temperatures, intensive heat waves, decreased and erratic precipitation and general decline in water resources;all leading to frequent and longer droughts, desertification and giving rise to intensive and recurrent (SDS). The present conditions have led to increasing emissions of (GHG) in the earth atmosphere. All future projections especially those using (IPCC) models and emission scenarios indicate that the Middle East will undergo appreciable decrease in winter precipitation with increasing temperature until the end of this century both of which are inductive to increased dryness and desertification. Iraq as one of the countries of this region and due to its geographical location, its dependence mostly on surface water resources originating from neighboring countries, long years of neglect and bad land management put it in the most precarious and unstable position among the other countries of the region. Modelling studies have shown that Iraq is suffering now from excessive dryness and droughts, increasing loss of vegetation cover areas, increasing encroachment of sand dunes on agricultural lands, in addition to severe and frequent (SDS). These negative repercussions and their mitigations require solutions not on the local level alone but collective cooperation and work from all the countries of the region.展开更多
According to the ＂jacking-up＂ theory, which relates the cause of earthquakes to outer core convection ascension bodies, the crust will gradually recover after an earthquake. In such cases, the crust is stretched, th...According to the ＂jacking-up＂ theory, which relates the cause of earthquakes to outer core convection ascension bodies, the crust will gradually recover after an earthquake. In such cases, the crust is stretched, the underground temperature is reduced, precipitation decreases, and drought occurs. In this paper, precipitation is compared with ground temperature and seismic data to determine the spatial and temporal relationship between earthquakes and subsequent droughts. Our objective is to develop a new method of drought prediction. With a few exceptions in location, the analysis of the first drought to occur after the Ms 〉 7 earthquakes in China's Mainland and the adjacent areas since 1950 shows that droughts tended to occur in regions near earthquake epicenters and in the eastern regions of the epicenters at the same latitude within six months after the earthquakes. In addition, and the differences between the starting time of the earthquakes and the droughts nearly share the same probability of 0 to 6 months. After careful analysis of 34 Ms 〉 6.5 earthquakes occurring in western China from 1980 to 2011, we determined that a second drought tends to occur approximately six months following the first drought, indicating a quasi-half-year period. Moreover, the duration of the quasi-half-year fluctuation increases with the magnitude of earthquake, at approximately 2.5 years for Ms 6.5 earthquake and approximately 5 years for Ms 8 earthquake.展开更多
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters such as droughts in the world.The pre-monsoon Aus rice in Bangladesh depends on rainfall and is threatened by increasing droughts.However,limited...Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters such as droughts in the world.The pre-monsoon Aus rice in Bangladesh depends on rainfall and is threatened by increasing droughts.However,limited information on the changes in Aus rice as well as droughts hamper our understanding of the country’s agricultural resilience and adaption to droughts.Here,we collected all the official statistical data of Aus rice at the district level from 1980 to 2018,and examined the interannual variations of area,yield,and production.The results showed both area and production of Aus rice decreased significantly(61.58×103 ha yr-1 and 17.21×103 M.tons yr-1,respectively),while yield increased significantly(0.03 M.tons ha-1 yr-1).We also found a significantly increasing trend of droughts in 88%of area based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)data,especially in those rainfed agricultural areas.Moreover,we found significant positive correlations between PDSI and Aus rice area(production)in 33(25)out of 64 districts.There is hardly a relationship between PDSI and yield,likely due to the improved management and increasing irrigated areas.Implementing continuous drought monitoring,combined irrigation(surface and groundwater)systems,and conservation and precision agriculture are highly recommended in these drought-prone districts to ensure food security in Bangladesh.展开更多
Sediment yield dynamics on the Edwards Plateau region of Texas was dramatically influenced by a multi-year drought that occurred there during the 1950s. To assess the effect of this drought on sediment yield, we used ...Sediment yield dynamics on the Edwards Plateau region of Texas was dramatically influenced by a multi-year drought that occurred there during the 1950s. To assess the effect of this drought on sediment yield, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to identify the factors that contributed erosion and to propose potential mitigation measures in case of future drought recurrence. The basins of interest to this study were Brady Creek One (BC 1) and Deep Creek Three (DC 3), located in McCulloch County, Texas. Although the streams in these basins are not gauged, the land cover and reservoir sediment budgets have been assessed in a past study. Calibration of SWAT flow simulation was accomplished using parameter transfer from a gauging station located in San Saba River. The results showed that sediment yield from storms above 60 mm was five times more during and immediately after drought period than during continuous wet seasons. Approximately half of the total drought period sediment yield was from five major rainstorms. The multi-year drought coupled with historical high grazing intensity resulted in significant loss of plant cover, which was considered critical in determining erosion and sedimentation rates. To test this hypothesis, the model was run for the periods of high land cover (1990s) using the 1950s multi-year drought data which showed that sediment yield was 24% of that simulated for 1950s land cover. It was concluded that maintenance of surface cover could play a critical role associated with multi-year drought extreme events.展开更多
The research analyzed characters of rice/wheat growth and yield structure in Puyang and explored the effects of droughts and floods on the crops. The re-sults showed that droughts and floods had significant effects on...The research analyzed characters of rice/wheat growth and yield structure in Puyang and explored the effects of droughts and floods on the crops. The re-sults showed that droughts and floods had significant effects on crop growth and yield. In Puyang, the relieving and prevention technology of the disasters is con-cluded. Specifical y, it is recommended to make ful use of agricultural climate re-sources in a rational way and select suitable crop varieties according to climate and disaster characters, fol owed by timely sowing and scientific crop arrangement. What＇s more, ploughing should proceed in deeper soil layers and management measures should be optimized to reduce the effects of disasters on crops. In addi-tion to that, disaster index system should be reinforced in terms of establishment, monitoring, warning and prevention to lay scientific foundations and provide refer-ences for safe crop production and preventing and reducing disasters.展开更多
The impacts of climate change on the discharge regimes in New Brunswick (Canada) were analyzed, using artificial neural network models. Future climate data were extracted from the Canadian Coupled General Climate Mode...The impacts of climate change on the discharge regimes in New Brunswick (Canada) were analyzed, using artificial neural network models. Future climate data were extracted from the Canadian Coupled General Climate Model (CGCM3.1) under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios B1 and A2 defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate change fields (temperatures and precipitation) were downscaled using the delta change approach. Using the artificial neural network, future river discharge was predicted for selected hydrometric stations. Then, a frequency analysis was carried out using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function, where the parameters of the distribution were estimated using L-moments method. Depending on the scenario and the time slice used, the increase in low return floods was about 30% and about 15% for higher return floods. Low flows showed increases of about 10% for low return droughts and about 20% for higher return droughts. An important part of the design process using frequency analysis is the estimation of future change in floods or droughts under climate scenarios at a given site and for specific return periods. This was carried out through the development of Regional Climate Index (RCI), linking future floods and droughts to their frequencies under climate scenarios B1 and A2.展开更多
Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural c...Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.展开更多
This paper describes a study on the combined impacts of antecedent earthquakes and droughts on disastrous debris flows.This is a novel attempt in quantifying such impacts using the effective peak acceleration(EPA)(to ...This paper describes a study on the combined impacts of antecedent earthquakes and droughts on disastrous debris flows.This is a novel attempt in quantifying such impacts using the effective peak acceleration(EPA)(to represent earthquakes) and standardized precipitation index(SPI)(to represent droughts).The study is based on the analysis of 116 disastrous debris flow events occurred in China's Mainland in the last 100 years covering a wide spectrum of climate types and landforms.It has been found that the combined impacts from earthquakes and droughts on disastrous debris flows do exist and vary from low to very high according to different climate conditions and terrains.The impacts from earthquakes increase with the increased terrain relief,and the impacts from droughts are strongest in semi-humid climate condition(with reduced impacts in humid and semi-arid /arid climate conditions).Hypothetical explanations on the study discoveries have been proposed.This study reveals the possible reasons for the disastrous debris flow distributions around the world and has significant implications in paleo-climate-seismicanalysis and disastrous debris flow risk management.展开更多
Based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature from 1960 to 1989 in the Luanhe River Basin, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI） and standardized precipitation index （SPI） at thre...Based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature from 1960 to 1989 in the Luanhe River Basin, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI） and standardized precipitation index （SPI） at three- and six-month time scales and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index （sc-PDSI） were calculated to evaluate droughts in the study area. Temporal variations of the drought severity from 1960 to 1989 were analyzed and compared based on the results of different drought indices, and some typical drought events were identified. Spatial distributions of the drought severity according to the indices were also plotted and investigated. The results reveal the following： the performances of different drought indices are closely associated with the drought duration and the dominant factors of droughts; the SPEI is more accurate than the SPI when both evaporation and precipitation play important roles in drought events; the drought severity shown by the sc-PDSI is generally milder than the actual drought severity from 1960 to 1989; and the evolution of the droughts is usually delayed according to the scPDSI. This study provides valuable references for building drought early warning and mitigation systems in the Luanhe River Basin.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3006505)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(Grant No.B240203007)the National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention(Grant No.524015222)。
文摘Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts and their lag time from meteorological droughts at a daily scale.In this study,precipitation data were collected to calculate the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and runoff data simulated by the variable infiltration capacity(VIC)model were utilized to compute the standardized runoff index(SRI).The three-threshold run theory was used to identify drought characteristics in China.These drought characteristics were utilized to investigate spatiotemporal variations,seasonal trends,and temporal changes in areas affected by meteorological and hydrological droughts.Additionally,the interconnections and lag effects between meteorological and hydrological droughts were explored.The results indicated that(1)drought occurred during approximately 28%of the past 34 years in China;(2)drought conditions tended to worsen in autumn and weaken in winter;(3)drought-affected areas shifted from northwest to northeast and finally to southern China;and(4)the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts was lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast,with all correlation coefficients exceeding 0.7.The lag times between meteorological and hydrological droughts were longest(5 d)in the Yangtze River,Yellow River,and Hai River basins,and shortest(0 d)in the Tarim River Basin.This study provides a scientific basis for effective early warning of droughts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42477481,42477483)the Science and Technology Program in Gansu Province(23JRRA599)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)"Light of West China"Program.
文摘Flash drought is characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification with impacts on agriculture,water resources,ecosystems,and human environment.In the Qilian Mountains,northwestern China,flash droughts are becoming more frequently due to the global climate warming.However,the spatiotemporal variations and their driving factors of flash droughts are not clear in this region.In this study,the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5-Land(ERA5-Land)dataset was utilized to identify two types of flash drought events(heatwave-induced and water scarcity-induced flash drought events)that occurred in the growing season(April‒September)during 1981-2020 in this area.The results showed that the frequency of heatwave-induced flash droughts has decreased since 2010,while the frequency of water scarcity-induced flash droughts has declined markedly.Spatially,heatwave-induced flash droughts were predominantly concentrated in the western Qilian Mountains,whereas water scarcity-induced flash droughts were primarily concentrated in the central and eastern Qilian Mountains.A significantly increasing temporal trend in both types of flash droughts in the eastern Qilian Mountains was found.Meanwhile,there was a decreasing temporal trend of heatwave-induced flash droughts in the southwestern part of the region.Additionally,the influence of two major atmospheric modes,i.e.,the El Niño‒Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),on these two types of flash droughts was explored by the Superposed Epoch Analysis.The ENSO mainly influences flash droughts in the central and eastern parts of the Qilian Mountains by altering the strength of the East Asian monsoon,while the NAO mainly affects flash droughts in the entire parts of the Qilian Mountains by inducing anomalous westerlies activity.Our findings have important implications for predicting the evolution of flash drought events in the Qilian Mountains region under continued climate warming.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42071047)Innovation Fund Project for College Teachers in Gansu Province (2025A-008)+1 种基金Research Capability Enhancement Plan for Young Teachers at Northwest Normal University (NWNU-LKQN2024-19)Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province (22JR5RA129)。
文摘Under current climate warming, the growth resilience of plantation forests after extreme droughts has garnered increasing attention. Platycladus orientalis Linn. is an evergreen tree species commonly used for afforestation, and the stability of P. orientalis plantation forests in the Loess Hilly region directly affects the ecological and environmental security of the entire Loess Plateau of China.However, systematic analyses of the growth resilience of P. orientalis plantation forests after extreme droughts along precipitation gradients remain scarce. In this study, we collected tree ring samples of P.orientalis along a precipitation gradient(255, 400, and 517 mm) from 2021 to 2023 and used dendroecological methods to explore the growth resilience of P. orientalis to drought stress on the Loess Plateau. Our findings revealed that the growth resilience of P. orientalis increased with increasing precipitation, enabling the trees to recover to the pre-drought growth levels. In regions with low precipitation(255 mm), the plantation forests were more sensitive to extreme droughts, struggling to recover to previous growth levels, necessitating conditional artificial irrigation. In regions with medium precipitation(400 mm), the growth of P. orientalis was significantly limited by drought stress and exhibited some recovery ability after extreme droughts, therefore warranting management through rainwater harvesting and conservation measures. Conversely, in regions with high precipitation(517 mm), the impacts of extreme droughts on P. orientalis plantation forests were relatively minor. This study underscored the need for targeted strategies tailored to different precipitation conditions rather than a "one-size-fits-all" approach to utilize precipitation resources effectively and maximize the ecological benefits of plantation forests. The findings will help maintain the stability of plantation forests and improve their ecosystem service functions in arid and semi-arid areas.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42130604)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFF0804704)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42105044)Swedish STINT(Grant No.CH2019-8377)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(Grant No.164320H116)。
文摘Since the mid-20th century,the Mongolian Plateau(MP)has experienced decadal droughts coupled with extreme heatwaves,severely affecting regional ecology and social development.However,the mechanisms behind these decadalscale compound heatwavedrought events remain debated.Here,using reconstructions and simulations from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble,we demonstrate that,over the last millennium,decadal droughts on the MP occurred under both warm and cold conditions,differing from recent compound heatwavedrought events.We found that by examining temperature changes during these drought periods,the distinct influences of external forcings and internal variability can be simply and effectively distinguished.Specifically,colddry events were primarily driven by volcanic eruptions that weakened the East Asian summer monsoon and midlatitude westerlies,reducing moisture transport to the MP.In contrast,warmdry events were predominantly induced by internal variability,notably the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the expansion of the Barents Sea ice extent.The recent extreme compound event was probably influenced by the combined effects of anthropogenic forcings and internal variability.These findings deepen our understanding of how external forcings and internal variability affect decadal drought events on the MP and highlight that recent compound events are unprecedented in the context of the last millennium.
基金supported by Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606501)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42075037)+1 种基金Key Laboratory Open Research Program of Xinjiang Science and Technology Department (Grant No. 2022D04009)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility” (EarthLab)。
文摘Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.
基金Support Foundation(FAPESP)/Belmont Forum-CLIMAX-2015-50687-8Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel(CAPES)-88887145932/2017-01+3 种基金CAPES-project88882.330673/2019-01the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico(CNPq)project306393/2018-2 and GVM thanks the National Agency for Scientific and Technological Promotion(ANPCyT)projects PICT-2019-2019-03982 and PICT-2019-2019-00481National University of the Litoral(UNL)project CAI+D-2020-50620190100082LINational Council for Scientific and Technical Research(CONICET)project PIP 11220200102257CO.
文摘Droughts that occurred in selected areas located in homogeneous regions of South America during the austral springs(SON)and summers(DJF)from 1982 to 2019 are identified using the Standard Precipitation Index(SPI).Four areas were analyzed for droughts in SON,and three areas were analyzed for droughts in DJF.The areas in the Amazon suffered from the majority of their droughts during El Niño years,while most of the droughts in the areas of southern Brazil,Uruguay,and North Argentina occurred during La Niña years.In southeastern and central-western parts of Brazil,droughts occurred during both phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and also during neutral years.Thus,other processes besides ENSO are likely related to the observed droughts.The droughts were investigated for each area and month,and composites of atmospheric and oceanic variables during both seasons were analyzed for the selected cases.Regional and large-scale field composites were examined to identify the main processes associated with dry conditions in the different areas.Regional features were related to the influence of high pressure over southern and southeastern areas and the divergence of moisture flux in all areas.Meridional circulations contributed to subsidence over the dry regions.The large-scale influential features include SST anomalies,wavetrains over the South Pacific Ocean with centers of action over South America that produced subsidence in the study areas,and convection anomalies in the Maritime continent and surrounding areas.Therefore,the droughts were associated with a combination of regional and large-scale features that produced subsidence over the analyzed regions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.32220103010,32192431,31722013)the National Key R&D Program of China(Nos.2023YFF1304201,2020YFA0608100)+1 种基金the Major Program of Institute of Applied EcologyChinese Academy of Sciences(No.IAEMP202201)。
文摘Extreme droughts are anticipated to have detrimental impacts on forest ecosystems,especially in water-limited regions,due to the influence of climate change.However,considerable uncertainty remains regarding the patterns in species-specific responses to extreme droughts.Here,we conducted a study integrating dendrochronology and remote sensing methods to investigate the mosaic-distributed maple-oak(native)natural forests and poplar plantations(introduced)in the Horqin Sandy Land,Northeast China.We assessed the impacts of extreme droughts on tree performances by measuring interannual variations in radial growth and vegetation index.The results showed that precipitation and self-calibrated palmer drought severity index(scPDSI)are the major factors influencing tree-ring width index(RWI)and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).The severe droughts between 2000 and 2004 resulted in reduced RWI in the three studied tree species as well as led to NDVI reductions in both the maple-oak natural forests and the poplar plantations.The RWI reached the nadir during the2000-2004 severe droughts and remained at low levels two years after the severe drought,creating a legacy effect.In contrast to the lack of significant correlation between RWI and scPDSI,NDVI exhibited a significant positive correlation with scPDSI indicating the greater sensitivity of canopy performance to droughts than radial growth.Furthermore,interspecific differences in RWI and NDVI responses were observed,with the fast-growing poplar species experiencing a more significant RWI decrease and more negative NDVI anomaly during severe droughts than native species,highlighting the species-specific trade-offs between drought resilience and growth rate.This study emphasizes the importance of combining tree-level radial growth with landscape-scale canopy remote sensing to understand forest resilience and response.Our study improves our understanding of forest responses to extreme drought and highlights species differences in climate responses,offering crucial insights for optimizing species selection in sustainable afforestation and forest management in water-limited regions under the influence of climate change.
基金the financial support received from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), USA (Grant No.2017-67003-26057) via an interagency partnership between USDA-NIFAthe National Science Foundation (NSF) on the research program Innovations at the Nexus of Food, Energy and Water Systemsfunded by the Ministry of Education, Government of India through the Scheme for Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration (SPARC) project grant (SPARC/2018-2019/P1080/SL)。
文摘Climate change is expected to have long-term impacts on drought and wildfire risks in Oregon as summers continue to become warmer and drier. This paper investigates the projected changes in drought characteristics and drought propagation in the Umatilla River Basin in northeastern Oregon for mid-century(2030–2059) and late-century(2070–2099) climate scenarios. Drought characteristics for projected climates were determined using downscaled CMIP5 climate datasets from ten climate models and Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate effects on hydrologic processes. Short-term(three months) drought characteristics(frequency, duration, and severity) were analyzed using four drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI-3), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI-3), Standardized Streamflow Index(SSI-3), and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index(SSMI-3). Results indicate that short-term meteorological droughts are projected to become more prevalent, with up to a 20% increase in the frequency of SPI-3drought events. Short-term hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent(average increase of 11% in frequency of SSI-3 drought events), more severe, and longer in duration(average increase of 8% for short-term droughts).Similarly, short-term agricultural droughts are projected to become more frequent(average increase of 28% in frequency of SSMI-3 drought events) but slightly shorter in duration(average decrease of 4%) in the future. Historically, drought propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought is shorter than from meteorological to agricultural drought in most sub-basins. For the projected climate scenarios, the decrease in drought propagation time will likely stress the timing and capacity of water supply in the basin for irrigation and other uses.
文摘Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly under abnormal atmospheric conditions(e.g., quasi-stationary high-pressure systems), and can persist for weeks, months, or even years.
基金National Foundation for Outstanding Young Scientists (40825008)National Natural Science Foundation of China (40975020)Models and Technical Composites for Comprehensive Improvement of Ecological and Environmental Conditions in the Basin of Qinghai Lake (2007BAC30B05-4)
文摘With the precipitation data of 113 stations in East China during the last 50 years,the characteristics of the precipitation,including Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP) and their tendencies,are analyzed.The results show that the PCD in the northern part of the region is markedly higher than that in the southern part,but the PCP in the south is much earlier than that in the north by about one and a half months,which displays significant regional differences in precipitation.With the global warming,precipitation over East China shows an increasing tendency,but PCD displays a trend that is neither increasing nor decreasing.At the same time,the PCP is later than before,which can be mainly found in Jiangxi and southern Henan provinces.As a result,there are strong associations between the precipitation,PCD and PCP,which can be shown in the years with more precipitation,stronger PCD and later-than-usual PCP.In a word,the abnormal distribution of precipitation,PCP,and PCD over East China results in more extreme events of precipitation and more droughts and floods.
基金Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)The World Academy of Science (TWAS) for providing financial support
文摘Droughts and soil erosion are among the most prominent climatic driven hazards in drylands,leading to detrimental environmental impacts,such as degraded lands,deteriorated ecosystem services and biodiversity,and increased greenhouse gas emissions.In response to the current lack of studies combining drought conditions and soil erosion processes,in this study,we developed a comprehensive Geographic Information System(GIS)-based approach to assess soil erosion and droughts,thereby revealing the relationship between soil erosion and droughts under an arid climate.The vegetation condition index(VCI)and temperature condition index(TCI)derived respectively from the enhanced vegetation index(EVI)MOD13A2 and land surface temperature(LST)MOD11A2 products were combined to generate the vegetation health index(VHI).The VHI has been conceived as an efficient tool to monitor droughts in the Negueb watershed,southeastern Tunisia.The revised universal soil loss equation(RUSLE)model was applied to quantitatively estimate soil erosion.The relationship between soil erosion and droughts was investigated through Pearson correlation.Results exhibited that the Negueb watershed experienced recurrent mild to extreme drought during 2000–2016.The average soil erosion rate was determined to be 1.8 t/(hm2•a).The mountainous western part of the watershed was the most vulnerable not only to soil erosion but also to droughts.The slope length and steepness factor was shown to be the most significant controlling parameter driving soil erosion.The relationship between droughts and soil erosion had a positive correlation(r=0.3);however,the correlation was highly varied spatially across the watershed.Drought was linked to soil erosion in the Negueb watershed.The current study provides insight for natural disaster risk assessment,land managers,and stake-holders to apply appropriate management measures to promote sustainable development goals in fragile environments.
文摘Climate change impacts on Earth’s atmosphere have caused drastic changes in the environment of most regions of the world. The Middle East region ranks among the worst affected of these regions. This has taken forms of increasing atmospheric temperatures, intensive heat waves, decreased and erratic precipitation and general decline in water resources;all leading to frequent and longer droughts, desertification and giving rise to intensive and recurrent (SDS). The present conditions have led to increasing emissions of (GHG) in the earth atmosphere. All future projections especially those using (IPCC) models and emission scenarios indicate that the Middle East will undergo appreciable decrease in winter precipitation with increasing temperature until the end of this century both of which are inductive to increased dryness and desertification. Iraq as one of the countries of this region and due to its geographical location, its dependence mostly on surface water resources originating from neighboring countries, long years of neglect and bad land management put it in the most precarious and unstable position among the other countries of the region. Modelling studies have shown that Iraq is suffering now from excessive dryness and droughts, increasing loss of vegetation cover areas, increasing encroachment of sand dunes on agricultural lands, in addition to severe and frequent (SDS). These negative repercussions and their mitigations require solutions not on the local level alone but collective cooperation and work from all the countries of the region.
基金supported by the National 973 Program(Grant No.2008CB425704)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40975049)
文摘According to the ＂jacking-up＂ theory, which relates the cause of earthquakes to outer core convection ascension bodies, the crust will gradually recover after an earthquake. In such cases, the crust is stretched, the underground temperature is reduced, precipitation decreases, and drought occurs. In this paper, precipitation is compared with ground temperature and seismic data to determine the spatial and temporal relationship between earthquakes and subsequent droughts. Our objective is to develop a new method of drought prediction. With a few exceptions in location, the analysis of the first drought to occur after the Ms 〉 7 earthquakes in China's Mainland and the adjacent areas since 1950 shows that droughts tended to occur in regions near earthquake epicenters and in the eastern regions of the epicenters at the same latitude within six months after the earthquakes. In addition, and the differences between the starting time of the earthquakes and the droughts nearly share the same probability of 0 to 6 months. After careful analysis of 34 Ms 〉 6.5 earthquakes occurring in western China from 1980 to 2011, we determined that a second drought tends to occur approximately six months following the first drought, indicating a quasi-half-year period. Moreover, the duration of the quasi-half-year fluctuation increases with the magnitude of earthquake, at approximately 2.5 years for Ms 6.5 earthquake and approximately 5 years for Ms 8 earthquake.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41871349)The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19040301)。
文摘Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters such as droughts in the world.The pre-monsoon Aus rice in Bangladesh depends on rainfall and is threatened by increasing droughts.However,limited information on the changes in Aus rice as well as droughts hamper our understanding of the country’s agricultural resilience and adaption to droughts.Here,we collected all the official statistical data of Aus rice at the district level from 1980 to 2018,and examined the interannual variations of area,yield,and production.The results showed both area and production of Aus rice decreased significantly(61.58×103 ha yr-1 and 17.21×103 M.tons yr-1,respectively),while yield increased significantly(0.03 M.tons ha-1 yr-1).We also found a significantly increasing trend of droughts in 88%of area based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)data,especially in those rainfed agricultural areas.Moreover,we found significant positive correlations between PDSI and Aus rice area(production)in 33(25)out of 64 districts.There is hardly a relationship between PDSI and yield,likely due to the improved management and increasing irrigated areas.Implementing continuous drought monitoring,combined irrigation(surface and groundwater)systems,and conservation and precision agriculture are highly recommended in these drought-prone districts to ensure food security in Bangladesh.
文摘Sediment yield dynamics on the Edwards Plateau region of Texas was dramatically influenced by a multi-year drought that occurred there during the 1950s. To assess the effect of this drought on sediment yield, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to identify the factors that contributed erosion and to propose potential mitigation measures in case of future drought recurrence. The basins of interest to this study were Brady Creek One (BC 1) and Deep Creek Three (DC 3), located in McCulloch County, Texas. Although the streams in these basins are not gauged, the land cover and reservoir sediment budgets have been assessed in a past study. Calibration of SWAT flow simulation was accomplished using parameter transfer from a gauging station located in San Saba River. The results showed that sediment yield from storms above 60 mm was five times more during and immediately after drought period than during continuous wet seasons. Approximately half of the total drought period sediment yield was from five major rainstorms. The multi-year drought coupled with historical high grazing intensity resulted in significant loss of plant cover, which was considered critical in determining erosion and sedimentation rates. To test this hypothesis, the model was run for the periods of high land cover (1990s) using the 1950s multi-year drought data which showed that sediment yield was 24% of that simulated for 1950s land cover. It was concluded that maintenance of surface cover could play a critical role associated with multi-year drought extreme events.
文摘The research analyzed characters of rice/wheat growth and yield structure in Puyang and explored the effects of droughts and floods on the crops. The re-sults showed that droughts and floods had significant effects on crop growth and yield. In Puyang, the relieving and prevention technology of the disasters is con-cluded. Specifical y, it is recommended to make ful use of agricultural climate re-sources in a rational way and select suitable crop varieties according to climate and disaster characters, fol owed by timely sowing and scientific crop arrangement. What＇s more, ploughing should proceed in deeper soil layers and management measures should be optimized to reduce the effects of disasters on crops. In addi-tion to that, disaster index system should be reinforced in terms of establishment, monitoring, warning and prevention to lay scientific foundations and provide refer-ences for safe crop production and preventing and reducing disasters.
文摘The impacts of climate change on the discharge regimes in New Brunswick (Canada) were analyzed, using artificial neural network models. Future climate data were extracted from the Canadian Coupled General Climate Model (CGCM3.1) under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios B1 and A2 defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate change fields (temperatures and precipitation) were downscaled using the delta change approach. Using the artificial neural network, future river discharge was predicted for selected hydrometric stations. Then, a frequency analysis was carried out using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function, where the parameters of the distribution were estimated using L-moments method. Depending on the scenario and the time slice used, the increase in low return floods was about 30% and about 15% for higher return floods. Low flows showed increases of about 10% for low return droughts and about 20% for higher return droughts. An important part of the design process using frequency analysis is the estimation of future change in floods or droughts under climate scenarios at a given site and for specific return periods. This was carried out through the development of Regional Climate Index (RCI), linking future floods and droughts to their frequencies under climate scenarios B1 and A2.
文摘Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.
基金funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2011BAK12B02)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41190084)+2 种基金the National Key Technology R&D Program (Grant No 2012 BAK10B04)the Non-Profit Industry Financial Program of MWR (Grant No. 201301058)the Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute of Sciences Innovation Team Project (Grant No. CKSF2012052/TB)
文摘This paper describes a study on the combined impacts of antecedent earthquakes and droughts on disastrous debris flows.This is a novel attempt in quantifying such impacts using the effective peak acceleration(EPA)(to represent earthquakes) and standardized precipitation index(SPI)(to represent droughts).The study is based on the analysis of 116 disastrous debris flow events occurred in China's Mainland in the last 100 years covering a wide spectrum of climate types and landforms.It has been found that the combined impacts from earthquakes and droughts on disastrous debris flows do exist and vary from low to very high according to different climate conditions and terrains.The impacts from earthquakes increase with the increased terrain relief,and the impacts from droughts are strongest in semi-humid climate condition(with reduced impacts in humid and semi-arid /arid climate conditions).Hypothetical explanations on the study discoveries have been proposed.This study reveals the possible reasons for the disastrous debris flow distributions around the world and has significant implications in paleo-climate-seismicanalysis and disastrous debris flow risk management.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41171220)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of the Ministry of Education of China(Grant No.IRT13062)+2 种基金the Programme of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities(the 111 Project,Grant No.B08048)the Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilizationthe National Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro-Science
文摘Based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature from 1960 to 1989 in the Luanhe River Basin, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI） and standardized precipitation index （SPI） at three- and six-month time scales and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index （sc-PDSI） were calculated to evaluate droughts in the study area. Temporal variations of the drought severity from 1960 to 1989 were analyzed and compared based on the results of different drought indices, and some typical drought events were identified. Spatial distributions of the drought severity according to the indices were also plotted and investigated. The results reveal the following： the performances of different drought indices are closely associated with the drought duration and the dominant factors of droughts; the SPEI is more accurate than the SPI when both evaporation and precipitation play important roles in drought events; the drought severity shown by the sc-PDSI is generally milder than the actual drought severity from 1960 to 1989; and the evolution of the droughts is usually delayed according to the scPDSI. This study provides valuable references for building drought early warning and mitigation systems in the Luanhe River Basin.
