This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has ...This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.展开更多
This paper investigates the impact of the model top and damping layer on the numerical simulation of tropical cyclones(TCs)and reveals the significant role of stratospheric gravity waves(SGWs).TCs can generate SGWs,wh...This paper investigates the impact of the model top and damping layer on the numerical simulation of tropical cyclones(TCs)and reveals the significant role of stratospheric gravity waves(SGWs).TCs can generate SGWs,which propagate upward and outward into the stratosphere.These SGWs can reach the damping layer,which is a consequence of the numerical scheme employed,where they can affect the tangential circulation through the dragging and forcing processes.In models with a higher top boundary,this tangential circulation develops far from the TC and has minimal direct impact on TC intensity.By comparison,in models with a lower top(e.g.,20 km),the damping layer is located just above the top of the TC.The SGW dragging in the damping layer and the consequent tangential force can thus induce ascent outside the eyewall,promote latent heat release,tilt the eyewall,and enlarge the inner-core radius.This process will reduce inner-core vorticity advection within the boundary layer,and eventually inhibits the intensification of the TC.This suggests that when the thickness of the damping layer is 5 km,the TC numerical model top height should be at least higher than 20 km to generate more accurate simulations.展开更多
Tropical cyclone-induced heavy precipitation(TCP)can have a detrimental impact on human productivity,causing significant economic losses and even human casualties in coastal countries every year.In this review article...Tropical cyclone-induced heavy precipitation(TCP)can have a detrimental impact on human productivity,causing significant economic losses and even human casualties in coastal countries every year.In this review article,the authors highlight the latest research developments in terms of ocean-atmosphere interactions and TCP,and identify the gaps where further research is required to enhance our understanding.The paper revolves around the following topics:(1)the characteristics of TCP over the ocean;(2)how air-sea interface processes,including sea surface temperature,sea-salt aerosols,and sea spray,influence TCP development;(3)the effects of TCP on the ocean;and(4)TCP changes in the context of global warming.In addition,directions and suggestions for future research toward a more comprehensive understanding of TCP-ocean interactions are discussed.Overall,this review summarizes the recent research progress and challenges in TCP-ocean interactions,and could serve as a guide for improvements in convective parameterization schemes and climate models toward predicting TCP distribution and intensity more accurately.展开更多
The disasters caused by tropical cyclones(TCs),including gale-force winds,heavy rainfall,and storm surges,have profound social and economic impacts,which are closely associated with the track,intensity,and structure o...The disasters caused by tropical cyclones(TCs),including gale-force winds,heavy rainfall,and storm surges,have profound social and economic impacts,which are closely associated with the track,intensity,and structure of TCs.Over the past few decades,significant progress has been made in developing theories and understanding the mechanisms of TC genesis and development,as well as advancing the monitoring and forecasting of TCs.展开更多
Bomb cyclones are rapidly deepening extratropical cyclones predominantly found in midlatitude regions.These extreme events are particularly frequent over the North Pacific(NP),posing significant societal and environme...Bomb cyclones are rapidly deepening extratropical cyclones predominantly found in midlatitude regions.These extreme events are particularly frequent over the North Pacific(NP),posing significant societal and environmental risks.Currently,our understanding of the variability of bomb cyclones over the NP remains limited.This study analyzes the variations in multiple NP bomb cyclone characteristics from 1980 onward using four major reanalysis datasets.The results show a weakening trend of bomb cyclones since the beginning of the 21st century,which is characterized by significant reductions in maximum near-surface wind speeds,increases in minimum sea level pressure,and slower deepening rates.Further analysis reveals that the observed weakening trend of bomb cyclones is closely linked to a reduction in maximum 850 hPa Eady growth rate,driven primarily by reduced vertical wind shear within the 30°-45°N latitudinal band.Furthermore,our findings indicate that the Aleutian Low acts to modulate the meridional air temperature gradient over the midlatitude NP,which is corroborated by climate model outputs.This modulation provides a pathway for the Aleutian Low to affect low-level baroclinicity and thus bomb cyclone characteristics.These results have important implications for future projections of bomb cyclone activity over the NP,aiding in risk assessment and mitigating the impacts of these extreme events.展开更多
Tropical cyclone(TC)intensity estimation is a fundamental aspect of TC monitoring and forecasting.Deep learning models have recently been employed to estimate TC intensity from satellite images and yield precise resul...Tropical cyclone(TC)intensity estimation is a fundamental aspect of TC monitoring and forecasting.Deep learning models have recently been employed to estimate TC intensity from satellite images and yield precise results.This work proposes the ViT-TC model based on the Vision Transformer(ViT)architecture.Satellite images of TCs,including infrared(IR),water vapor(WV),and passive microwave(PMW),are used as inputs for intensity estimation.Experiments indicate that combining IR,WV,and PMW as inputs yields more accurate estimations than other channel combinations.The ensemble mean technique is applied to enhance the model's estimations,reducing the root-mean-square error to 9.32 kt(knots,1 kt≈0.51 m s^(-1))and the mean absolute error to 6.49 kt,which outperforms traditional methods and is comparable to existing deep learning models.The model assigns high attention weights to areas with high PMW,indicating that PMW magnitude is essential information for the model's estimation.The model also allocates significance to the cloud-cover region,suggesting that the model utilizes the whole TC cloud structure and TC eye to determine TC intensity.展开更多
EC-Earth3P-HR reproduces well the observed Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)and its impacts on tropical cyclone genesis(TCG)in the western North Pacific(WNP).Hence,the historical simulation(1950-1979)and ...EC-Earth3P-HR reproduces well the observed Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)and its impacts on tropical cyclone genesis(TCG)in the western North Pacific(WNP).Hence,the historical simulation(1950-1979)and future projection under the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2020-2049)in EC-Earth3P-HR are adopted to explore possible changes in the BSISO’s modification of WNP TCG under global warming to enhance the understanding of TC activities in the WNP.Results show that the BSISO circulation in the WNP shifts northeastward under global warming.This leads to enhanced convection in a northwest-southeast-oriented band crossing the WNP.Along the band,the BSISO-related TCG anomalies are enhanced.Analyses of genesis potential index show that changes in the BSISO-related mid-tropospheric relative humidity play the dominant role in modifying the BSISO’s impacts on WNP TCG under global warming.The enhanced BSISO convection in the band moistens the middle troposphere,which helps reduce the entrainment of generally dry mid-tropospheric air in the updrafts and the modification of the boundary layer by the downdraft of generally dry mid-tropospheric air,leading to enhanced TCG.展开更多
Against the backdrop of climate change,the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)has captured widespread attention.Observational datasets indicate a declining trend in the genesis longitude of western North Pacific(WNP)TC...Against the backdrop of climate change,the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)has captured widespread attention.Observational datasets indicate a declining trend in the genesis longitude of western North Pacific(WNP)TCs.This study investigates the zonal changes of WNP TCs with CMIP6-HighResMIP models.These models capture the genesis density of WNP TCs fairly well.The results reveal a westward shift in TC genesis longitude.This trend is associated with the significant reduction in the TC frequency over the southeastern WNP.The study also discusses changes in large-scale circulation patterns and the impact of the strengthening Pacific Walker circulation.展开更多
Tropical cyclones(TCs)are complex and powerful weather systems,and accurately forecasting their path,structure,and intensity remains a critical focus and challenge in meteorological research.In this paper,we propose a...Tropical cyclones(TCs)are complex and powerful weather systems,and accurately forecasting their path,structure,and intensity remains a critical focus and challenge in meteorological research.In this paper,we propose an Attention Spatio-Temporal predictive Generative Adversarial Network(AST-GAN)model for predicting the temporal and spatial distribution of TCs.The model forecasts the spatial distribution of TC wind speeds for the next 15 hours at 3-hour intervals,emphasizing the cyclone's center,high wind-speed areas,and its asymmetric structure.To effectively capture spatiotemporal feature transfer at different time steps,we employ a channel attention mechanism for feature selection,enhancing model performance and reducing parameter redundancy.We utilized High-Resolution Weather Research and Forecasting(HWRF)data to train our model,allowing it to assimilate a wide range of TC motion patterns.The model is versatile and can be applied to various complex scenarios,such as multiple TCs moving simultaneously or TCs approaching landfall.Our proposed model demonstrates superior forecasting performance,achieving a root-mean-square error(RMSE)of 0.71 m s^(-1)for overall wind speed and 2.74 m s^(-1)for maximum wind speed when benchmarked against ground truth data from HWRF.Furthermore,the model underwent optimization and independent testing using ERA5reanalysis data,showcasing its stability and scalability.After fine-tuning on the ERA5 dataset,the model achieved an RMSE of 1.33 m s^(-1)for wind speed and 1.75 m s^(-1)for maximum wind speed.The AST-GAN model outperforms other state-of-the-art models in RMSE on both the HWRF and ERA5 datasets,maintaining its superior performance and demonstrating its effectiveness for spatiotemporal prediction of TCs.展开更多
Based on the ERA-5 reanalysis data provided by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),the development mechanisms of explosive cyclones in the Kuroshio Current area from 2000 to 2015 were classif...Based on the ERA-5 reanalysis data provided by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),the development mechanisms of explosive cyclones in the Kuroshio Current area from 2000 to 2015 were classified,and the characteristics of these explosive cyclones were analyzed by using diagnostic analysis,statistical analysis and linear fitting analysis methods.The results show that absolute vorticity advection,temperature advection,and non-adiabatic heating were the three main factors affecting the explosive development of cyclones.The development mechanisms of explosive cyclones in the Kuroshio Current area can be classified into three major categories,that is,the explosive cyclones were dominated by a single factor,two factors,or multiple factors.The explosive cyclones dominated by a single factor were mainly weak or medium,while there were fewer strong explosive cyclones and no super explosive cyclones.Among these explosive cyclones,the explosive cyclones dominated by absolute vorticity advection were the weakest,while the strongest explosive cyclones were dominated by non-adiabatic heating.The proportion of strong and supper explosive cyclones dominated by two factors was over 60%.The combination of two factors was more likely to generate strong explosive cyclones than the single-factor dominant type and the combination of three factors,among which the impact was the greatest under the combined effect of temperature advection and non-adiabatic heating.Through statistical analysis,it is concluded that non-adiabatic heating contributed the most to the explosive development of cyclones in the Kuroshio Current area,while vorticity advection had the least impact,and temperature advection had a considerable effect.In terms of seasonal characteristics,the explosive cyclones in the Kuroshio Current area mostly appeared in spring,followed by winter,while there were basically no explosive cyclones in summer and autumn.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of upper ocean dynamics on velocity bunching,represented by az-imuthal cutoff wavelength(i.e.,sea surface wind,wave,and current).In this study,over 1400 dual-polarize...The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of upper ocean dynamics on velocity bunching,represented by az-imuthal cutoff wavelength(i.e.,sea surface wind,wave,and current).In this study,over 1400 dual-polarized(vertical-vertical(VV)and vertical-horizontal(VH))Sentinel-1(S-1)synthetic aperture radar(SAR)images collected in tropical cyclones(TC)are utilized.These images are combined with wind and rain observations from the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer(SFMR),wave simu-lations conducted using a third-generation numerical wave model,WAVEWATCH-III(WW3),and SAR-derived wind information collected from CyclObs winds.The WW3-simulated significant wave height(SWH)is validated against measurements from HY-2B altimeter taken in August and September 2021,yielding a root mean square error(RMSE)of 0.48 m and a correlation coefficient(COR)of 0.88.The SAR-based azimuthal cutoff wavelengths in VV polarization,which quantitatively represent the effect of velocity bunching,are compared with theoretical values calculated using WW3-simulated SWH.A notable relationship is observed between the difference in azimuthal cutoff wavelength and SAR-derived wind speed and WW3-simulated SWH.Analysis results show that the correlation between SAR-based azimuthal cutoff wavelength and SWH is stronger than that with wind and current.Finally,a machine learning algorithm is used to develop an algorithm aimed at simulating the azimuthal cutoff wavelength in TCs,including wind,wave,and incidence angle.This method yields an RMSE of 8.90 m,a COR of 0.91,and a scatter index of 0.04 for VV-polar-ization SAR.展开更多
The ability to forecast heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones （LTCs） can be improved with a better understanding of the mechanism of rainfall rates and distributions of LTCs. Research in the a...The ability to forecast heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones （LTCs） can be improved with a better understanding of the mechanism of rainfall rates and distributions of LTCs. Research in the area of LTCs has shown that associated heavy rainfall is related closely to mechanisms such as moisture transport, extratropical transition （ET）, interaction with monsoon surge, land surface processes or topographic effects, mesoscale convective system activities within the LTC, and boundary layer energy transfer etc.. LTCs interacting with environmental weather systems, especially the westerly trough and mei-yu front, could change the rainfall rate and distribution associated with these mid-latitude weather systems. Recently improved technologies have contributed to advancements within the areas of quantitative precipitation estimation （QPE） and quantitative precipitation forecasting （QPF）. More specifically, progress has been due primarily to remote sensing observations and mesoscale numerical models which incorporate advanced assimilation techniques. Such progress may provide the tools necessary to improve rainfall forecasting techniques associated with LTCs in the future.展开更多
Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis （ERA-40） sea-level pressu...Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis （ERA-40） sea-level pressure data during 1958-2001. The results reveal that extratropieal cyclone activity has displayed clear seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in northern East Asia. Spring is the season when cyclones occur most frequently. The spatial distribution of extratropieal cyclones shows that cyclones occur mainly within the 40°- 50°N latitudinal band in northern East Asia, and the most frequent region of occurrence is in Mongolia. Furthermore, this study also reveals the fact that the frequency of extratropieal cyclones has significantly decreased in the lower latitude region of northern East Asia during 1958 2001, but deeadal variability has dominated in higher latitude bands, with frequent cyclone genesis. The intensity of extratropical cyclones has decreased on an annual and seasonal basis. Variation of the annual number of cyclones in northern East Asia is associated with the mean intensity of the baroelinie frontal zone, which is influenced by climate warming in the higher latitudes. Moreover, the dipole structure of extratopical cyclone change, with increases in the north and decreases in the southern part of northern East Asia, is related to the northward movement of the baroelinic frontal zone on either side of 110°E.展开更多
There has been much progress in the study of tropical cyclones and tropical meteorology in China in the past few years. A new atmospheric field experiment of tropical cyclone landfall with the acronym of CLATEX (China...There has been much progress in the study of tropical cyclones and tropical meteorology in China in the past few years. A new atmospheric field experiment of tropical cyclone landfall with the acronym of CLATEX (China Landfalling Typhoon Experiment) was implemented in July-August 2002. The boundary layer characteristics of the target typhoon Vongfong and the mesoscale structural features of other land-falling typhoons were studied. In addition, typhoon track operational forecasting errors in the last decade have been reduced because the operational monitoring equipment and forecast techniques were improved. Some results from the research program on tropical cvclone landfall, structure and intensity change, inten-sification near coastal waters, interaction between tropical cyclone and mid-latitude circulation, and the interaction among different scales of motion are described in this paper. Four major meteorological scien-tific experiments in China with international cooperation were implemented in 1998: the South China Sea monsoon field experiment (SCSMEX), the Tibetan Plateau field experiment (TIPEX), the Huaihe River basin energy and water cycle experiment (HUBEX), and the South China heavy rain scientific experiment (HUAMEX). Although these field experiments have different scientific objectives, they commonly relate to monsoon activities and they interact with each other. The valuable intensive observation data that were obtained have already been shared internationally. Some new findings have been published recently. Other research work in China, such as the tropical air-sea interaction, tropical atmospheric circulation, and weather systems, are reviewed in this paper as well. Some research results have shown that the rainfall anomalies for different regions in China were closely related to the stages of El Nino events.展开更多
A 28-year best track dataset containing size parameters that include the radii of the 15.4 m s^-1 winds （R15） and the 25.7 m s^-1 winds （R26） of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the Northwestern Pacific, the NCEP/ NCA...A 28-year best track dataset containing size parameters that include the radii of the 15.4 m s^-1 winds （R15） and the 25.7 m s^-1 winds （R26） of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the Northwestern Pacific, the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature （ERSST） dataset are employed in this study. The climatology of size parameters for the tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific from 1977 to 2004 is investigated in terms of the spatial and temporal distributions. The results show that the major activity of TCs in the Northwestern Pacific is from July to October. A majority of TCs lie over the ocean west of 150°E, and a few TCs can intensify to the Saffir-Simpson （S-S） categories 4, 5. Both R15 and R26 tend to increase as the tropical cyclones intensify. The values of R15 and R26 are larger for intense TCs in the Northwestern Pacific than in the North Atlantic generally. Both R15 and R26 peak in October, and before and after October, R15 and R26 decrease, which is different from the case in the North Atlantic. The smaller R15s and R26s occur in a large range over the Northwestern Pacific, while the larger R15s and R26s mainly lie in the eastern ocean from Taiwan Island to the Philippine Islands where many tropical cyclones develop in intense systems. The tropical cyclones with size parameters of R15 or R26 on average take a longer time to intensify than to weaken, and the weak tropical cyclones have faster weakening rates than intensification rates. From 1977 to 2004, the annual mean values of R15 increase basically with year; during the 28-year period, the value of R15 increases by 52.7 kin, but R26 does not change with year obviously.展开更多
The characteristics of tropical cyclone（TC） extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall（TMDR） using daily station precipitation dat...The characteristics of tropical cyclone（TC） extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall（TMDR） using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend[-0.7（10 yr）^（-1）], a weak decreasing trend [-0.2（10 yr）^（-1）] and a weak increasing trend [0.1（10 yr）^（-1）], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR 50 mm and 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm（TCER） events]peaking in August and September. The western region（Changjiang） of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-h Pa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs.展开更多
Tibetan Plateau vortices （TPVs） are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） dnring the extended summer season （April-September）. Most TPVs stay on the TP, but a small number can move off the...Tibetan Plateau vortices （TPVs） are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） dnring the extended summer season （April-September）. Most TPVs stay on the TP, but a small number can move off the TP to the east. TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP （e.g., in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley）. Identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent （400-800 kin） and the limited availability of soundings over the TP, which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs. In this study, （i） manual tracking （MT） results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with （ii） results obtained by an automated tracking （AT） algorithm applied to ERA-Interim data. Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method （i） and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method （ii）. Conversely, ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs. In general, the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement, but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods, data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-Interim data. Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking, including in an operational weather forecasting context.展开更多
Valuable dropsonde data were obtained from multiple field campaigns targeting tropical cyclones,namely Higos,Nangka,Saudel,and Atsani,over the western North Pacific by the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan Central Weat...Valuable dropsonde data were obtained from multiple field campaigns targeting tropical cyclones,namely Higos,Nangka,Saudel,and Atsani,over the western North Pacific by the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau in 2020.The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method has been utilized in real-time to identify the sensitive regions for targeting observations adhering to the procedure of real-time field campaigns for the first time.The observing system experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of dropsonde data and CNOP sensitivity on TC forecasts in terms of track and intensity,using the Weather Research and Forecasting model.It is shown that the impact of assimilating all dropsonde data on both track and intensity forecasts is case-dependent.However,assimilation using only the dropsonde data inside the sensitive regions displays unanimously positive effects on both the track and intensity forecast,either of which obtains comparable benefits to or greatly reduces deterioration of the skill when assimilating all dropsonde data.Therefore,these results encourage us to further carry out targeting observations for the forecast of tropical cyclones according to CNOP sensitivity.展开更多
According to Argo profiles and one-dimensional Price-Weller-Pinkel models, the oceanic barrier layer variation induced by tropical cyclones is adequately analyzed in the Northwest Pacific. Results show that tropical c...According to Argo profiles and one-dimensional Price-Weller-Pinkel models, the oceanic barrier layer variation induced by tropical cyclones is adequately analyzed in the Northwest Pacific. Results show that tropical cyclones mainly aff ect the oceanic barrier layer through intensifying and weakening pre-existed barrier layer. The former even may generate new one after tropical cyclones’ passage. The latter can make pre-existed one disappear. Local wind stress and precipitation, the dominant factors, primarily determine the variation of barrier layer. Negative eff ects of wind mainly focus on the north of 20°N. This phenomenon is more meaningful for slow tropical cyclones. Conversely, positive eff ects of wind and precipitation center on the south of 20°N in the Northwest Pacific. Some data indicate that the barrier layer variation is also closely related with initial mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness.展开更多
A new tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones is put forward and planted into the NCAR- AFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in MM5. The scheme for the new profile can make full use of the in...A new tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones is put forward and planted into the NCAR- AFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in MM5. The scheme for the new profile can make full use of the information from routine typhoon reports, including not only the maximum wind, but also the additional information of the wind speeds of 25.7 and 15.4 ms-1 and their corresponding radii, which are usually provided for strong cyclones. Thus, the new profile can be used to describe the outer structure of cyclones more accurately than by using the earlier scheme of MM5 in which on- ly the maximum wind speed is considered. Numerical experimental forecasts of two strong tropical cyclones are performed to examine the new profile. Results show that by using the new profile the prediction of both cyclones’ intensity can be obvi- ously improved, but the effects on the track prediction of the two cyclones are different. It seems that the new profile might be more suitable for strong cyclones with shifted tracks. However, the conclusion is drawn from only two typhoon cases, so more cases are needed to evaluate the new profile.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42422502 and 42275038)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program (Grant No.QBZ202306)funded by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China project under the International Science Partnerships Fund (ISPF)。
文摘This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42475016,42192555 and 42305085)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2023M741615)the 2023 Graduate Research Innovation Project of Hunan Province(Grant No.CX20230011)。
文摘This paper investigates the impact of the model top and damping layer on the numerical simulation of tropical cyclones(TCs)and reveals the significant role of stratospheric gravity waves(SGWs).TCs can generate SGWs,which propagate upward and outward into the stratosphere.These SGWs can reach the damping layer,which is a consequence of the numerical scheme employed,where they can affect the tangential circulation through the dragging and forcing processes.In models with a higher top boundary,this tangential circulation develops far from the TC and has minimal direct impact on TC intensity.By comparison,in models with a lower top(e.g.,20 km),the damping layer is located just above the top of the TC.The SGW dragging in the damping layer and the consequent tangential force can thus induce ascent outside the eyewall,promote latent heat release,tilt the eyewall,and enlarge the inner-core radius.This process will reduce inner-core vorticity advection within the boundary layer,and eventually inhibits the intensification of the TC.This suggests that when the thickness of the damping layer is 5 km,the TC numerical model top height should be at least higher than 20 km to generate more accurate simulations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 42192552 and 42475011]。
文摘Tropical cyclone-induced heavy precipitation(TCP)can have a detrimental impact on human productivity,causing significant economic losses and even human casualties in coastal countries every year.In this review article,the authors highlight the latest research developments in terms of ocean-atmosphere interactions and TCP,and identify the gaps where further research is required to enhance our understanding.The paper revolves around the following topics:(1)the characteristics of TCP over the ocean;(2)how air-sea interface processes,including sea surface temperature,sea-salt aerosols,and sea spray,influence TCP development;(3)the effects of TCP on the ocean;and(4)TCP changes in the context of global warming.In addition,directions and suggestions for future research toward a more comprehensive understanding of TCP-ocean interactions are discussed.Overall,this review summarizes the recent research progress and challenges in TCP-ocean interactions,and could serve as a guide for improvements in convective parameterization schemes and climate models toward predicting TCP distribution and intensity more accurately.
文摘The disasters caused by tropical cyclones(TCs),including gale-force winds,heavy rainfall,and storm surges,have profound social and economic impacts,which are closely associated with the track,intensity,and structure of TCs.Over the past few decades,significant progress has been made in developing theories and understanding the mechanisms of TC genesis and development,as well as advancing the monitoring and forecasting of TCs.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42030410)the Laoshan Laboratory(Grant Nos.LSKJ202202404 and LSKJ202202403)+1 种基金the Startup Foundation for Introducing Tal-ent of NUIST,Jiangsu Innovation Research Group(Grant No.JSS-CTD202346)the Jiangsu Funding Program for Excellent Post-doctoral Talent(Grant No.2023ZB690).
文摘Bomb cyclones are rapidly deepening extratropical cyclones predominantly found in midlatitude regions.These extreme events are particularly frequent over the North Pacific(NP),posing significant societal and environmental risks.Currently,our understanding of the variability of bomb cyclones over the NP remains limited.This study analyzes the variations in multiple NP bomb cyclone characteristics from 1980 onward using four major reanalysis datasets.The results show a weakening trend of bomb cyclones since the beginning of the 21st century,which is characterized by significant reductions in maximum near-surface wind speeds,increases in minimum sea level pressure,and slower deepening rates.Further analysis reveals that the observed weakening trend of bomb cyclones is closely linked to a reduction in maximum 850 hPa Eady growth rate,driven primarily by reduced vertical wind shear within the 30°-45°N latitudinal band.Furthermore,our findings indicate that the Aleutian Low acts to modulate the meridional air temperature gradient over the midlatitude NP,which is corroborated by climate model outputs.This modulation provides a pathway for the Aleutian Low to affect low-level baroclinicity and thus bomb cyclone characteristics.These results have important implications for future projections of bomb cyclone activity over the NP,aiding in risk assessment and mitigating the impacts of these extreme events.
基金Research funding for this project was provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42192563 and 42120104001)the Hong Kong RGC General Research Fund(Grant No.11300920)+1 种基金Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation(Grant Nos.2208085UQ12,2308085US01)Anhui&Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research(Grant Nos.KJGG202201,KY202306)。
文摘Tropical cyclone(TC)intensity estimation is a fundamental aspect of TC monitoring and forecasting.Deep learning models have recently been employed to estimate TC intensity from satellite images and yield precise results.This work proposes the ViT-TC model based on the Vision Transformer(ViT)architecture.Satellite images of TCs,including infrared(IR),water vapor(WV),and passive microwave(PMW),are used as inputs for intensity estimation.Experiments indicate that combining IR,WV,and PMW as inputs yields more accurate estimations than other channel combinations.The ensemble mean technique is applied to enhance the model's estimations,reducing the root-mean-square error to 9.32 kt(knots,1 kt≈0.51 m s^(-1))and the mean absolute error to 6.49 kt,which outperforms traditional methods and is comparable to existing deep learning models.The model assigns high attention weights to areas with high PMW,indicating that PMW magnitude is essential information for the model's estimation.The model also allocates significance to the cloud-cover region,suggesting that the model utilizes the whole TC cloud structure and TC eye to determine TC intensity.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42088101]。
文摘EC-Earth3P-HR reproduces well the observed Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)and its impacts on tropical cyclone genesis(TCG)in the western North Pacific(WNP).Hence,the historical simulation(1950-1979)and future projection under the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2020-2049)in EC-Earth3P-HR are adopted to explore possible changes in the BSISO’s modification of WNP TCG under global warming to enhance the understanding of TC activities in the WNP.Results show that the BSISO circulation in the WNP shifts northeastward under global warming.This leads to enhanced convection in a northwest-southeast-oriented band crossing the WNP.Along the band,the BSISO-related TCG anomalies are enhanced.Analyses of genesis potential index show that changes in the BSISO-related mid-tropospheric relative humidity play the dominant role in modifying the BSISO’s impacts on WNP TCG under global warming.The enhanced BSISO convection in the band moistens the middle troposphere,which helps reduce the entrainment of generally dry mid-tropospheric air in the updrafts and the modification of the boundary layer by the downdraft of generally dry mid-tropospheric air,leading to enhanced TCG.
基金supported by a key project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42192563]。
文摘Against the backdrop of climate change,the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)has captured widespread attention.Observational datasets indicate a declining trend in the genesis longitude of western North Pacific(WNP)TCs.This study investigates the zonal changes of WNP TCs with CMIP6-HighResMIP models.These models capture the genesis density of WNP TCs fairly well.The results reveal a westward shift in TC genesis longitude.This trend is associated with the significant reduction in the TC frequency over the southeastern WNP.The study also discusses changes in large-scale circulation patterns and the impact of the strengthening Pacific Walker circulation.
基金supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(NO.SML2021SP201)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42306200 and 42306216)+2 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3008100)the Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(Grant No.311021004)the Oceanic Interdisciplinary Program of Shanghai Jiao Tong University(Project No.SL2021ZD203)。
文摘Tropical cyclones(TCs)are complex and powerful weather systems,and accurately forecasting their path,structure,and intensity remains a critical focus and challenge in meteorological research.In this paper,we propose an Attention Spatio-Temporal predictive Generative Adversarial Network(AST-GAN)model for predicting the temporal and spatial distribution of TCs.The model forecasts the spatial distribution of TC wind speeds for the next 15 hours at 3-hour intervals,emphasizing the cyclone's center,high wind-speed areas,and its asymmetric structure.To effectively capture spatiotemporal feature transfer at different time steps,we employ a channel attention mechanism for feature selection,enhancing model performance and reducing parameter redundancy.We utilized High-Resolution Weather Research and Forecasting(HWRF)data to train our model,allowing it to assimilate a wide range of TC motion patterns.The model is versatile and can be applied to various complex scenarios,such as multiple TCs moving simultaneously or TCs approaching landfall.Our proposed model demonstrates superior forecasting performance,achieving a root-mean-square error(RMSE)of 0.71 m s^(-1)for overall wind speed and 2.74 m s^(-1)for maximum wind speed when benchmarked against ground truth data from HWRF.Furthermore,the model underwent optimization and independent testing using ERA5reanalysis data,showcasing its stability and scalability.After fine-tuning on the ERA5 dataset,the model achieved an RMSE of 1.33 m s^(-1)for wind speed and 1.75 m s^(-1)for maximum wind speed.The AST-GAN model outperforms other state-of-the-art models in RMSE on both the HWRF and ERA5 datasets,maintaining its superior performance and demonstrating its effectiveness for spatiotemporal prediction of TCs.
文摘Based on the ERA-5 reanalysis data provided by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),the development mechanisms of explosive cyclones in the Kuroshio Current area from 2000 to 2015 were classified,and the characteristics of these explosive cyclones were analyzed by using diagnostic analysis,statistical analysis and linear fitting analysis methods.The results show that absolute vorticity advection,temperature advection,and non-adiabatic heating were the three main factors affecting the explosive development of cyclones.The development mechanisms of explosive cyclones in the Kuroshio Current area can be classified into three major categories,that is,the explosive cyclones were dominated by a single factor,two factors,or multiple factors.The explosive cyclones dominated by a single factor were mainly weak or medium,while there were fewer strong explosive cyclones and no super explosive cyclones.Among these explosive cyclones,the explosive cyclones dominated by absolute vorticity advection were the weakest,while the strongest explosive cyclones were dominated by non-adiabatic heating.The proportion of strong and supper explosive cyclones dominated by two factors was over 60%.The combination of two factors was more likely to generate strong explosive cyclones than the single-factor dominant type and the combination of three factors,among which the impact was the greatest under the combined effect of temperature advection and non-adiabatic heating.Through statistical analysis,it is concluded that non-adiabatic heating contributed the most to the explosive development of cyclones in the Kuroshio Current area,while vorticity advection had the least impact,and temperature advection had a considerable effect.In terms of seasonal characteristics,the explosive cyclones in the Kuroshio Current area mostly appeared in spring,followed by winter,while there were basically no explosive cyclones in summer and autumn.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42076238,42376174)the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.23ZR1426900).
文摘The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of upper ocean dynamics on velocity bunching,represented by az-imuthal cutoff wavelength(i.e.,sea surface wind,wave,and current).In this study,over 1400 dual-polarized(vertical-vertical(VV)and vertical-horizontal(VH))Sentinel-1(S-1)synthetic aperture radar(SAR)images collected in tropical cyclones(TC)are utilized.These images are combined with wind and rain observations from the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer(SFMR),wave simu-lations conducted using a third-generation numerical wave model,WAVEWATCH-III(WW3),and SAR-derived wind information collected from CyclObs winds.The WW3-simulated significant wave height(SWH)is validated against measurements from HY-2B altimeter taken in August and September 2021,yielding a root mean square error(RMSE)of 0.48 m and a correlation coefficient(COR)of 0.88.The SAR-based azimuthal cutoff wavelengths in VV polarization,which quantitatively represent the effect of velocity bunching,are compared with theoretical values calculated using WW3-simulated SWH.A notable relationship is observed between the difference in azimuthal cutoff wavelength and SAR-derived wind speed and WW3-simulated SWH.Analysis results show that the correlation between SAR-based azimuthal cutoff wavelength and SWH is stronger than that with wind and current.Finally,a machine learning algorithm is used to develop an algorithm aimed at simulating the azimuthal cutoff wavelength in TCs,including wind,wave,and incidence angle.This method yields an RMSE of 8.90 m,a COR of 0.91,and a scatter index of 0.04 for VV-polar-ization SAR.
基金financed by the National Grand Fundamental Research 973 Program of China (Grant Nos. 2009CB421504 and 2004CB418301)the Key Program of the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China (NSFC) (Grant No. 40730948)the NSFC (Grant Nos. 40575018, 40675033 and 40975032)
文摘The ability to forecast heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones （LTCs） can be improved with a better understanding of the mechanism of rainfall rates and distributions of LTCs. Research in the area of LTCs has shown that associated heavy rainfall is related closely to mechanisms such as moisture transport, extratropical transition （ET）, interaction with monsoon surge, land surface processes or topographic effects, mesoscale convective system activities within the LTC, and boundary layer energy transfer etc.. LTCs interacting with environmental weather systems, especially the westerly trough and mei-yu front, could change the rainfall rate and distribution associated with these mid-latitude weather systems. Recently improved technologies have contributed to advancements within the areas of quantitative precipitation estimation （QPE） and quantitative precipitation forecasting （QPF）. More specifically, progress has been due primarily to remote sensing observations and mesoscale numerical models which incorporate advanced assimilation techniques. Such progress may provide the tools necessary to improve rainfall forecasting techniques associated with LTCs in the future.
基金supported by project 2006C-B400503Project 2007BAC29B02
文摘Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis （ERA-40） sea-level pressure data during 1958-2001. The results reveal that extratropieal cyclone activity has displayed clear seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in northern East Asia. Spring is the season when cyclones occur most frequently. The spatial distribution of extratropieal cyclones shows that cyclones occur mainly within the 40°- 50°N latitudinal band in northern East Asia, and the most frequent region of occurrence is in Mongolia. Furthermore, this study also reveals the fact that the frequency of extratropieal cyclones has significantly decreased in the lower latitude region of northern East Asia during 1958 2001, but deeadal variability has dominated in higher latitude bands, with frequent cyclone genesis. The intensity of extratropical cyclones has decreased on an annual and seasonal basis. Variation of the annual number of cyclones in northern East Asia is associated with the mean intensity of the baroelinie frontal zone, which is influenced by climate warming in the higher latitudes. Moreover, the dipole structure of extratopical cyclone change, with increases in the north and decreases in the southern part of northern East Asia, is related to the northward movement of the baroelinic frontal zone on either side of 110°E.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40175019 and 40275018the Key Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China under Grant No.2001DIA20026.
文摘There has been much progress in the study of tropical cyclones and tropical meteorology in China in the past few years. A new atmospheric field experiment of tropical cyclone landfall with the acronym of CLATEX (China Landfalling Typhoon Experiment) was implemented in July-August 2002. The boundary layer characteristics of the target typhoon Vongfong and the mesoscale structural features of other land-falling typhoons were studied. In addition, typhoon track operational forecasting errors in the last decade have been reduced because the operational monitoring equipment and forecast techniques were improved. Some results from the research program on tropical cvclone landfall, structure and intensity change, inten-sification near coastal waters, interaction between tropical cyclone and mid-latitude circulation, and the interaction among different scales of motion are described in this paper. Four major meteorological scien-tific experiments in China with international cooperation were implemented in 1998: the South China Sea monsoon field experiment (SCSMEX), the Tibetan Plateau field experiment (TIPEX), the Huaihe River basin energy and water cycle experiment (HUBEX), and the South China heavy rain scientific experiment (HUAMEX). Although these field experiments have different scientific objectives, they commonly relate to monsoon activities and they interact with each other. The valuable intensive observation data that were obtained have already been shared internationally. Some new findings have been published recently. Other research work in China, such as the tropical air-sea interaction, tropical atmospheric circulation, and weather systems, are reviewed in this paper as well. Some research results have shown that the rainfall anomalies for different regions in China were closely related to the stages of El Nino events.
文摘A 28-year best track dataset containing size parameters that include the radii of the 15.4 m s^-1 winds （R15） and the 25.7 m s^-1 winds （R26） of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the Northwestern Pacific, the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature （ERSST） dataset are employed in this study. The climatology of size parameters for the tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific from 1977 to 2004 is investigated in terms of the spatial and temporal distributions. The results show that the major activity of TCs in the Northwestern Pacific is from July to October. A majority of TCs lie over the ocean west of 150°E, and a few TCs can intensify to the Saffir-Simpson （S-S） categories 4, 5. Both R15 and R26 tend to increase as the tropical cyclones intensify. The values of R15 and R26 are larger for intense TCs in the Northwestern Pacific than in the North Atlantic generally. Both R15 and R26 peak in October, and before and after October, R15 and R26 decrease, which is different from the case in the North Atlantic. The smaller R15s and R26s occur in a large range over the Northwestern Pacific, while the larger R15s and R26s mainly lie in the eastern ocean from Taiwan Island to the Philippine Islands where many tropical cyclones develop in intense systems. The tropical cyclones with size parameters of R15 or R26 on average take a longer time to intensify than to weaken, and the weak tropical cyclones have faster weakening rates than intensification rates. From 1977 to 2004, the annual mean values of R15 increase basically with year; during the 28-year period, the value of R15 increases by 52.7 kin, but R26 does not change with year obviously.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41375056),the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41675042)the National Science-Technology Support Plan Project (Grant No.2013BAK05B03)+1 种基金the Hainan Meteorological Service Research Project (Grant No.HNQXQN201402)the China Meteorological Administration Forecaster Special Project (Grant No.CMAYBY2015-058)
文摘The characteristics of tropical cyclone（TC） extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall（TMDR） using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend[-0.7（10 yr）^（-1）], a weak decreasing trend [-0.2（10 yr）^（-1）] and a weak increasing trend [0.1（10 yr）^（-1）], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR 50 mm and 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm（TCER） events]peaking in August and September. The western region（Changjiang） of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-h Pa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs.
基金supported by the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund grant agreement P100195 between the Met Office and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading for the MESETA(Modelling Physical and Dynamical Processes over the Tibetan Plateau and their Regional Effects over East Asia) project
文摘Tibetan Plateau vortices （TPVs） are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） dnring the extended summer season （April-September）. Most TPVs stay on the TP, but a small number can move off the TP to the east. TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP （e.g., in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley）. Identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent （400-800 kin） and the limited availability of soundings over the TP, which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs. In this study, （i） manual tracking （MT） results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with （ii） results obtained by an automated tracking （AT） algorithm applied to ERA-Interim data. Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method （i） and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method （ii）. Conversely, ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs. In general, the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement, but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods, data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-Interim data. Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking, including in an operational weather forecasting context.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Nature Scientific Foundation of China(Grant.Nos.41930971 and 41775061)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1506402)。
文摘Valuable dropsonde data were obtained from multiple field campaigns targeting tropical cyclones,namely Higos,Nangka,Saudel,and Atsani,over the western North Pacific by the Hong Kong Observatory and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau in 2020.The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)method has been utilized in real-time to identify the sensitive regions for targeting observations adhering to the procedure of real-time field campaigns for the first time.The observing system experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of dropsonde data and CNOP sensitivity on TC forecasts in terms of track and intensity,using the Weather Research and Forecasting model.It is shown that the impact of assimilating all dropsonde data on both track and intensity forecasts is case-dependent.However,assimilation using only the dropsonde data inside the sensitive regions displays unanimously positive effects on both the track and intensity forecast,either of which obtains comparable benefits to or greatly reduces deterioration of the skill when assimilating all dropsonde data.Therefore,these results encourage us to further carry out targeting observations for the forecast of tropical cyclones according to CNOP sensitivity.
基金Supported by the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction(No.GASI-IPOVAI-04)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC1404000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41276001)
文摘According to Argo profiles and one-dimensional Price-Weller-Pinkel models, the oceanic barrier layer variation induced by tropical cyclones is adequately analyzed in the Northwest Pacific. Results show that tropical cyclones mainly aff ect the oceanic barrier layer through intensifying and weakening pre-existed barrier layer. The former even may generate new one after tropical cyclones’ passage. The latter can make pre-existed one disappear. Local wind stress and precipitation, the dominant factors, primarily determine the variation of barrier layer. Negative eff ects of wind mainly focus on the north of 20°N. This phenomenon is more meaningful for slow tropical cyclones. Conversely, positive eff ects of wind and precipitation center on the south of 20°N in the Northwest Pacific. Some data indicate that the barrier layer variation is also closely related with initial mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness.
文摘A new tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones is put forward and planted into the NCAR- AFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in MM5. The scheme for the new profile can make full use of the information from routine typhoon reports, including not only the maximum wind, but also the additional information of the wind speeds of 25.7 and 15.4 ms-1 and their corresponding radii, which are usually provided for strong cyclones. Thus, the new profile can be used to describe the outer structure of cyclones more accurately than by using the earlier scheme of MM5 in which on- ly the maximum wind speed is considered. Numerical experimental forecasts of two strong tropical cyclones are performed to examine the new profile. Results show that by using the new profile the prediction of both cyclones’ intensity can be obvi- ously improved, but the effects on the track prediction of the two cyclones are different. It seems that the new profile might be more suitable for strong cyclones with shifted tracks. However, the conclusion is drawn from only two typhoon cases, so more cases are needed to evaluate the new profile.
