Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and cli...Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.展开更多
Surface ozone(O_(3))pollution showed a continuous increasing trend during the recent decades in China,posing an increasing threat to food security.A wide range of yield reductions have been reported and thus more stud...Surface ozone(O_(3))pollution showed a continuous increasing trend during the recent decades in China,posing an increasing threat to food security.A wide range of yield reductions have been reported and thus more studies are needed to narrow down the uncertainty resulting from spatiotemporal accuracy of O_(3) metrics and extrapolation methods.Based on a high spatial resolution(0.1°)hourly surface O_(3) data,here we analyzed the spatiotemporal O_(3) pollution patterns and impacts on yield,production and economic losses for wheat,rice,and maize in China during 2005–2020.The accumulated O_(3) exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb(AOT40)increased by 10%during 2005–2019,and a decrease of 5.56%was observed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 lockdowns.Rising O_(3) pollution reduced national level wheat,rice and maize yields by 14.51%±0.43%,11.10%±0.6%,and 3.99%±0.11%,respectively.A Business-As-Usual projection suggested that the relative yield loss(RYL)would potentially reach 8%–18%at the national scale by 2050 if no emission control is implemented.COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 led to significantly reduced RYL for maize(0.52%)and rice(2.17%)but not for wheat(0.11%),with the largest reduction(1.88%–9.4%)in North China Plain,highlighting the potential benefits of emission control.Our findings provided robust evidence that rising O_(3) pollution has significantly affected China’s crop yields,production and economic losses,underscoring the urgent need to curb O_(3) pollution to safeguard food security,particularly in densely populated and industrialized regions.展开更多
The increasing frequency of compound extreme events under ongoing climate change threatens global food security.Compared to individual extreme events,the simultaneous occurrence of multiple extreme events can exacerba...The increasing frequency of compound extreme events under ongoing climate change threatens global food security.Compared to individual extreme events,the simultaneous occurrence of multiple extreme events can exacerbate crop yield reductions,yet comprehensive assessments of these compound effects remain limited.To bridge this gap,we applied a linear mixed-effects model to quantify the impacts of individual extreme events(cold days(CD)and killing degree days(KDD))and triple compound extreme events(heatwave and low precipitation(HWLP)and hot-dry-windy(HDW))on the global yields of winter wheat,soybeans,and maize from 1982 to 2016.Our analysis indicated that regions severely impacted by extreme events(exceeding the 95%threshold)experienced total crop yield losses of more than 9.16,24.89,26.69,and 7.12%due to CD,KDD,HWLP,and HDW,respectively.The adverse effects of compound events were particularly pronounced during critical growth stages.HWLP results in yield losses of 9.4%for winter wheat and 6.8%for maize per 10 hours of exposure during the heading to harvesting stages,while soybean yields declined by 8.8%per 10 hours during the planting to three-true-leaf stage.Similarly,KDD caused a 7.4%yield reduction in winter wheat per 10°C day during the heading to harvesting stages,a 9.5%reduction in maize per 10°C day during the planting to jointing stages,and a 3.8%reduction in soybean per 10°C day during the planting to three-true-leaf stages.These findings underscore the substantial contribution of compound extreme events,which are often overlooked in existing risk assessments,in determining the global yields of major staple crops.展开更多
Organic material combined with inorganic fertilizer has been shown to greatly improve crop yield and maintain soil fertility globally. However, it remains unclear if crop yield and soil fertility can be sustained in t...Organic material combined with inorganic fertilizer has been shown to greatly improve crop yield and maintain soil fertility globally. However, it remains unclear if crop yield and soil fertility can be sustained in the long term under the combined application of organic and inorganic fertilizers. Three long-term field trials were conducted to investigate the effects of organic amendments on the grain sustainable yield index(SYI), soil fertility index(SFI)and nutrient balance in maize–wheat cropping systems of central and southern China during 1991–2019. Five treatments were included in the trials: 1) no fertilization(control);2) balanced mineral fertilization(NPK);3) NPK plus manure(NPKM);4) high dose of NPK plus manure(1.5NPKM);and 5) NPK plus crop straw(NPKS). Over time, the grain yields of wheat and maize showed an increasing trend in all four fertilization treatments at the Yangling(YL) and Zhengzhou(ZZ) locations, while they declined at Qiyang(QY). The grain yield in the NPKM and 1.5NPKM treatments gradually exceeded that of the NPK and NPKS treatments at the QY site. The largest SYI was recorded in the NPKM treatment across the three sites, suggesting that inorganic fertilizer combined with manure can effectively improve crop yield sustainability. Higher SYI values were recorded at the YL and ZZ sites than at the QY site, possibly because the soil was more acid at QY. The key factors affecting grain yield were soil available phosphorus(AP) and available potassium(AK) at the YL and ZZ sites, and pH and AP at the QY site.All fertilization treatments resulted in soil N and P surpluses at the three sites, but soil K surpluses were recorded only at the QY site. The SFI was greater in the 1.5NPKM, NPKM and NPKS treatments than in the NPK treatment by 13.3–40.0 and 16.4–63.6% at the YL and ZZ sites, respectively, and was significantly higher in the NPKM and 1.5NPKM treatments than in the NPK and NPKS treatments at the QY site. A significant, positive linear relationship was found between SFI and crop yield, and SYI and nutrient balance, indicating that grain yield and its sustainability significantly increased with increasing soil fertility. The apparent N, P and K balances positively affected SFI.This study suggests that the appropriate amount of manure mixed with mineral NPK fertilizer is beneficial to the development of sustainable agriculture, which effectively increases the crop yield and yield sustainability by improving soil fertility.展开更多
The crop yields achieved through traditional plant breeding techniques appear to be nearing a plateau.Therefore,it is essential to accelerate advancements in photosynthesis,the fundamental process by which plants conv...The crop yields achieved through traditional plant breeding techniques appear to be nearing a plateau.Therefore,it is essential to accelerate advancements in photosynthesis,the fundamental process by which plants convert light energy into chemical energy,to further enhance crop yields.Research focused on improving photosynthesis holds significant promise for increasing sustainable agricultural productivity and addressing challenges related to global food security.This review examines the latest advancements and strategies aimed at boosting crop yields by enhancing photosynthetic efficiency.There has been a linear increase in yield over the years in historically released germplasm selected through traditional breeding methods,and this increase is accompanied by improved photosynthesis.We explore various aspects of the light reactions designed to enhance crop yield,including light harvest efficiency through smart canopy systems,expanding the absorbed light spectrum to include far-red light,optimizing non-photochemical quenching,and accelerating electron transport flux.At the same time,we investigate carbon reactions that can enhance crop yield,such as manipulating Rubisco activity,improving the Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle,introducing CO_(2)concentrating mechanisms in C_(3)plants,and optimizing carbon allocation.These strategies could significantly impact crop yield enhancement and help bridge the yield gap.展开更多
The Tarim River Basin(TRB)is a vast area with plenty of light and heat and is an important base for grain and cotton production in Northwest China.In the context of climate change,however,the increased frequency of ex...The Tarim River Basin(TRB)is a vast area with plenty of light and heat and is an important base for grain and cotton production in Northwest China.In the context of climate change,however,the increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events is having numerous negative impacts on the region's agricultural production.To better understand how unfavorable climatic conditions affect crop production,we explored the relationship of extreme weather and climate events with crop yields and phenology.In this research,ten indicators of extreme weather and climate events(consecutive dry days(CDD),min Tmax(TXn),max Tmin(TNx),tropical nights(TR),warm days(Tx90p),warm nights(Tn90p),summer days(SU),frost days(FD),very wet days(R95p),and windy days(WD))were selected to analyze the impact of spatial and temporal variations on the yields of major crops(wheat,maize,and cotton)in the TRB from 1990 to 2020.The three key findings of this research were as follows:extreme temperatures in southwestern TRB showed an increasing trend,with higher extreme temperatures at night,while the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events in northeastern TRB was relatively low.The number of FD was on the rise,while WD also increased in recent years.Crop yields were higher in the northeast compared with the southwest,and wheat,maize,and cotton yields generally showed an increasing trend despite an earlier decline.The correlation of extreme weather and climate events on crop yields can be categorized as extreme nighttime temperature indices(TNx,Tn90p,TR,and FD),extreme daytime temperature indices(TXn,Tx90p,and SU),extreme precipitation indices(CDD and R95p),and extreme wind(WD).By using Random Forest(RF)approach to determine the effects of different extreme weather and climate events on the yields of different crops,we found that the importance of extreme precipitation indices(CDD and R95p)to crop yield decreased significantly over time.As well,we found that the importance of the extreme nighttime temperature(TR and TNx)for the yields of the three crops increased during 2005-2020 compared with 1990-2005.The impact of extreme temperature events on wheat,maize,and cotton yields in the TRB is becoming increasingly significant,and this finding can inform policy decisions and agronomic innovations to better cope with current and future climate warming.展开更多
1.The key to achieving China’s dual carbon goals As pointed out in the CO_(2) Emissions in 2023 report released by the International Energy Agency,global carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emis-sions reached 37.4 billion tonnes i...1.The key to achieving China’s dual carbon goals As pointed out in the CO_(2) Emissions in 2023 report released by the International Energy Agency,global carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emis-sions reached 37.4 billion tonnes in 2023[1],setting a new record high.The increase in CO_(2) emissions has exacerbated global warm-ing and led to a series of global climate problems.China is a major emitter of CO_(2).展开更多
Biochar and animal manure application can improve crop yields in salt-affected soil.Previous studies have primarily applied biochar and animal manure either alone or at fixed ratios,while their combined effects with v...Biochar and animal manure application can improve crop yields in salt-affected soil.Previous studies have primarily applied biochar and animal manure either alone or at fixed ratios,while their combined effects with varying combination proportions are still unclear.To address this knowledge gap,we performed a 2-a experiment(2023-2024)in a salinized cotton field in Wensu County of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China with the following 6 treatments:control;application of biochar(10t/hm^(2))alone(BC100%);application of cow manure(10 t/hm^(2))alone(CM100%);application of 70%biochar(7 t/hm^(2))combined with 30%cow manure(3 t/hm^(2))(BC70%+CM30%);application of 50%biochar(5 t/hm^(2))combined with 50%cow manure(5 t/hm^(2))(BC50%+CM50%);and application of 30%biochar(3 t/hm^(2))combined with 70%cow manure(7 t/hm^(2))(BC30%+CM70%).By measuring soil pH,electrical conductivity,soil organic matter,available phosphorus,available potassium,and available nitrogen at 0-20 and 20-40 cm depths,as well as yield components and cotton yield in 2023 and 2024,this study revealed that soil nutrients in the 0-20 cm depth were more sensitive to the treatment.Among all the treatments,BC50%+CM50%treatment had the highest value of soil pH(9.63±0.07)but the lowest values of electrical conductivity(161.9±31.8μS/cm),soil organic matter(1.88±0.27 g/kg),and available potassium(42.72±8.25 mg/kg)in 2024.Moreover,the highest cotton yield(5336.63±467.72 kg/hm^(2))was also observed under BC50%+CM50%treatment in 2024,which was 1.9 times greater than that under the control treatment.In addition,cotton yield in 2023 was jointly determined by yield components(density and number of cotton bolls)and soil nutrients(available phosphorus and available potassium),but in 2024,cotton yield was only positively related to yield components(density,number of cotton bolls,and single boll weight).Overall,this study highlighted that in salt-affected soil,the combination of biochar and cow manure at a 1:1 ratio is recommended for increasing cotton yield and reducing soil salinity stress.展开更多
The article examines the impact of increased aridization of the territory due to an increase in air temperature,reduced precipitation,and the formation of moisture deficiency on grain yields in Northern Kazakhstan.The...The article examines the impact of increased aridization of the territory due to an increase in air temperature,reduced precipitation,and the formation of moisture deficiency on grain yields in Northern Kazakhstan.The most important result of the work is the revealed inverse relationship between grain yields and the temperature of the growing season:low-yielding years are associated with high temperatures and droughts,and high-yielding years are associated with lower temperatures and an optimal ratio of heat and moisture.The novelty of this study is the use of the method of hydrological and climatic calculations in identifying the nature of temperature variability and precipitation in the territory of Northern Kazakhstan for the modern period(1991–2020)compared with the base period(1961–1990).At all the studied meteorological stations,there is a tendency for the average annual temperature and the temperature of the growing season to increase:in the forest-steppe zone with an average warming intensity of 0.3–0.33℃ per decade;in the steppe zone by 0.2–0.43℃ per decade;and in the growing season by 0.2–0.7℃ per decade.The air temperature in the steppe zone is rising more intensively than in the forest-steppe zone,and precipitation in the forest-steppe zone has changed more than in the steppe zone.An increase in the average annual air temperature during the growing season(May–August),combined with a shortage of atmospheric moisture or a constant amount of it,led to an increase in the degree of aridization of the territory,an increase in the frequency of droughts in the steppe zone of Northern Kazakhstan.展开更多
Different ratios of NPK were adopted in this research to study its effects on the objective traits of 2 early forage-rice varieties, and to obtain the optimum ratio to further improve the application technique in theo...Different ratios of NPK were adopted in this research to study its effects on the objective traits of 2 early forage-rice varieties, and to obtain the optimum ratio to further improve the application technique in theory. At the same time, the possibility of increasing yield and protein content in the grain through cultivation technique was also studied. The conclusions were：展开更多
[Objective] Long-term （over 18 years） fertilization experiments were con- ducted to study the responses of crop yields and soil fertility to long-term nutrient lacking at Zhengzhou in China. [Method] The present stu...[Objective] Long-term （over 18 years） fertilization experiments were con- ducted to study the responses of crop yields and soil fertility to long-term nutrient lacking at Zhengzhou in China. [Method] The present study consisted of five treat- ments： 1 CK （no fertilizer or manure）, （2） NP （nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer applied）, 31 NK （nitrogen and potassium fertilizer applied）, 4 PK （phosphorus and potassium fertilizer applied） and ：5 NPK （nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertil- izer applied）. [Result] Lacking of nitrogen or phosphorus led to a low yield; however, there was no significant difference in grain yields between the NP and NPK treat- ments which maintained a higher yield. Receiving no phosphorus, soil available phosphorus content declined to about 2.5 mg/kg. The concentration of soil ex- changeable potassium remained constant at a level of 60 mg/kg under the treat- ments without potassium fertilizer addition. Soil potassium spontaneous supply ca- pacity fluctuated around 100%.[Conclusion] In fluvo-aquic soil, nitrogen and phos- phorus were two key limiting factors to grain yields, biomass and yield component factors of wheat and maize, while potassium was not. However, potassium defi- ciency may occur in the future if there was still no potassium fertilizer applied.展开更多
It remains unclear whether biochar applications to calcareous soils can improve soil fertility and crop yield. A long-term field experiment was established in 2009 so as to determine the effect of biochar on crop yiel...It remains unclear whether biochar applications to calcareous soils can improve soil fertility and crop yield. A long-term field experiment was established in 2009 so as to determine the effect of biochar on crop yield and soil properties in a calcareous soil. Five treatments were： 1） straw incorporation; 2） straw incorporation with inorganic fertilizer; 3）, 4） and 5） straw incorporation with inorganic fertilizer, and biochar at 30, 60, and 90 t ha-l, respectively. The annual yield of either winter wheat or summer maize was not increased significantly following biochar application, whereas the cumulative yield over the first 4 growing seasons was significantly increased. Soil pH, measured in situ, was increased by a maximum of 0.35 units after 2 yr following biochar application. After 3 yr, soil bulk density significantly decreased while soil water holding capacity increased with adding biochar of 90 t ha^-1. Alkaline hydrolysable N decreased but exchangeable K increased due to biochar addition. Olsen-P did not change compared to the treatment without biochar. The results suggested that biochar could be used in calcareous soils without yield loss or significant impacts on nutrient availability.展开更多
Plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria （PGPR） are considered to be the most promising agents for cash crop production via increasing crop yields and decreasing disease occurrence. The Bacillus amyloliquefaciens strain...Plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria （PGPR） are considered to be the most promising agents for cash crop production via increasing crop yields and decreasing disease occurrence. The Bacillus amyloliquefaciens strain W19 can produce secondary metabolites （iturin and bacillomycin D） effectively against Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense （FOC）. In this study, the ability of a bio-organic fertilizer （BIO） containing strain W19 to promote plant growth and suppress the Fusarium wilt of banana was evaluated in both pot and field experiments. The results showed that application of BIO significantly promoted the growth and fruit yield of banana while suppressing the banana Fusariurn wilt disease. To further determine the beneficial mechanisms of the strain, the colonization of green fluorescent protein-tagged strain W19 on banana roots was observed using confocal laser scanning microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The effect of banana root exudates on the formation of biofilm of strain W19 indicated that the banana root exudates may enhance colonization. In addition, the strain W19 was able to produce indole-3-acetic acid （IAA）, a plant growth-promoting hormone. The results of these experiments revealed that the application of strain W19-enriched BIO improved the banana root colonization of strain W19 and growth of banana and suppressed the Fusarium wilt. The PGPR strain W19 can be a useful biocontrol agent for the production of banana under field conditions.展开更多
Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate rela- tively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common altern...Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate rela- tively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale （e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale）. Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.展开更多
Effect of application of K fertilizer and wheat straw to soil on crop yield and status of soil K in the plough layer under different planting systems was studied.The experiments on long-term application of K fertilize...Effect of application of K fertilizer and wheat straw to soil on crop yield and status of soil K in the plough layer under different planting systems was studied.The experiments on long-term application of K fertilizer and wheat straw to soil in Hebei fluvo aquic soil and Shanxi brown soil in northern China were begun in 1992.The results showed that K fertilizer and straw could improve the yields of wheat and maize with the order of NPK+St〉NPK〉NP+St〉NP,and treatment of K fertilizer made a significant difference to NP,and the efficiency of K fertilizer in maize was higher than in wheat under rotation system of Hebei.In contrast with Shanxi,the wastage of soil potassium was a more serious issue in the rotation system in Hebei,only treatment of NPK+St showed a surplus of potassium and the others showed a wane.K fertilizer and straw could improve the content of water-soluble K,nonspecifically adsorbed K,non-exchangeable K,mineral K,and total K in contrast to NP;however,K fertilizer and straw reduce the proportion of mineral K and improve proportion of other forms of potassium in the two locating sites.Compared with the beginning of orientation,temporal variability character of soil K content and proportion showed a difference between the two soil types;furthermore,there was a decrease in the content of mineral K and total K simultaneously in the two locating sites.As a whole,the effect of K fertilizer applied to soil directly excelled to wheat straw to soil.Wheat straw to soil was an effective measure to complement potassium to increase crop yield and retard the decrease of soil K.展开更多
Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more...Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more and more attention from Chinese government and scientists. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the national northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. Also, the possible change of crop yield caused by planting limits displacement during the periods 1950s-1981 and 1981-2007 was compared and discussed. The recognized calculation methods of agricultural climatic indices were employed. According to the indices of climatic regionalization for cropping systems, the national northern limits of cropping systems, winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation during two periods, including the 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007, were drawn with ArcGIS software. Compared with the situation during the 1950s- 1980, the northern limits of double cropping system during 1981-2007 showed significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning provinces and Beijing municipality, China. The northern limits of triple cropping system showed the maximum spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, China. Without considering variety change and social economic factors, the per unit area grain yield of main planting patterns would increase about 54-106% if single cropping system was replaced by double cropping system, which turned out to be 27- 58% if double cropping system was replaced by triple cropping system. In Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia autonomous regions, China, the northern limits of winter wheat during 1981-2007 moved northward and expanded westward in different degrees, compared with those during the 1950s-1980. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the northern limits of winter wheat moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would averagely increase about 25% in the change region if the spring wheat was replaced by winter wheat. In Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan provinces, China, the planting northern limits of double rice moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would increase in different degrees only from the perspective of heat resource. The stable- yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward in most regions, which was caused by the decrease of local precipitation in recent years. During the past 50 yr, climate warming made the national northern limits of cropping systems move northward in different degrees, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice both moved northward, and the cropping system change would cause the increase of per unit area grain yield in the change region. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward due to the decrease of precipitation.展开更多
A long term fertilization experiment was carried out in an experimental field in Lyczyn near Warsaw, Poland. Application ofmineral fertilizers, especially N fertilizers with and without farmyard manure accelerated th...A long term fertilization experiment was carried out in an experimental field in Lyczyn near Warsaw, Poland. Application ofmineral fertilizers, especially N fertilizers with and without farmyard manure accelerated the acidification process of the soil. Application of 1.6 t CaO ha -1 every four years was essential to maintenance of the soil pH KCl at 5.5～6.6 and base saturation degree above 60%. Application of 50 t farmyard manure ha -1 every 4 years, which contained 46 kg P and 240 kg K, was sufficient to maintain both the K and P fertility of the soil. Besides, it was beneficial to alleviating soil acidification. As a result of long term unbalanced fertilization, yield responses to N, P and K fertilizers increased significantly with time. The efficiency of N from farmyard manure was found to be comparable to that of N fertilizer during 1988～1991.展开更多
The accurate prediction of soybean yield is of great significance for agricultural production, monitoring and early warning.Although previous studies have used machine learning algorithms to predict soybean yield base...The accurate prediction of soybean yield is of great significance for agricultural production, monitoring and early warning.Although previous studies have used machine learning algorithms to predict soybean yield based on meteorological data,it is not clear how different models can be used to effectively separate soybean meteorological yield from soybean yield in various regions. In addition, comprehensively integrating the advantages of various machine learning algorithms to improve the prediction accuracy through ensemble learning algorithms has not been studied in depth. This study used and analyzed various daily meteorological data and soybean yield data from 173 county-level administrative regions and meteorological stations in two principal soybean planting areas in China(Northeast China and the Huang–Huai region), covering 34 years.Three effective machine learning algorithms(K-nearest neighbor, random forest, and support vector regression) were adopted as the base-models to establish a high-precision and highly-reliable soybean meteorological yield prediction model based on the stacking ensemble learning framework. The model's generalizability was further improved through 5-fold crossvalidation, and the model was optimized by principal component analysis and hyperparametric optimization. The accuracy of the model was evaluated by using the five-year sliding prediction and four regression indicators of the 173 counties, which showed that the stacking model has higher accuracy and stronger robustness. The 5-year sliding estimations of soybean yield based on the stacking model in 173 counties showed that the prediction effect can reflect the spatiotemporal distribution of soybean yield in detail, and the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) was less than 5%. The stacking prediction model of soybean meteorological yield provides a new approach for accurately predicting soybean yield.展开更多
Biochar(BC)is widely applied in agricultural production for its multiple uses such as carbon sequestration.However,application of BC alone has limited effect on soil fertility and crop yield,especially alkaline soil.T...Biochar(BC)is widely applied in agricultural production for its multiple uses such as carbon sequestration.However,application of BC alone has limited effect on soil fertility and crop yield,especially alkaline soil.Therefore,a pot experiment on Chinese cabbage(Brassica rapa var.glabra)was carried out in this study to investigate the effect of BC applied with organic fertilizer(OF)on alkaline soil properties and crop yield.To be specific,BC and OF were respectively applied at 0,1%,2%,and 3%,and Chinese cabbage was transplanted and cultivated for 2.5 months.Results showed that BC and OF increased the content of both organic matter and available P in alkaline soil(P<0.05).Moreover,the application of OF alone decreased the pH value but raised available N content of alkaline soil,and the application of only BC demonstrated the contrary effect(P<0.05).OF significantly improved crop yield(P<0.05),but the effect of BC was insignificant.Crop yield was the highest under the treatment of 1%BC and 3%OF.Thus,BC had limited effect on alkaline soil fertility and crop yield,but the application with OF was a good option for ameliorating alkaline soil and raising crop yield.展开更多
In this paper,spatial correlation of crop yield in the middle and west of Jilin Province is analyzed by us-ing the method of geostatistics semivariogram,taking the NDVI of NOAA/AVHRR spectrum data as the regionalized ...In this paper,spatial correlation of crop yield in the middle and west of Jilin Province is analyzed by us-ing the method of geostatistics semivariogram,taking the NDVI of NOAA/AVHRR spectrum data as the regionalized vari-able,aiming to provide theory and practical basis for field sampling of crop yield estimation using remote sensing.The ratio of nugget variance and sill of semivariograms are 21.1% and 9.7% in the west and middle regions in Jilin Province respectively.This shows that the crop yields are spatially correlated.The degree and range of correlation are far different in the different situations.In the west test region,the range is 49.9 km and the sill is 0.00019.In the middle testre-gion,the range is 16.5 km and the sill is0.00453.The dissimilarity in the western test region is larger than that in the middle one.The range in which the correlation existed of the former is far larger than the later.Different character is tics of spatial correlation of crop yield are decided by the environmental factors.Samples for crop yield estimation should be extracted according to the characteristic of spatial distribution of crop yield to promote the efficiency of sampling.展开更多
基金funded by the National 973 Program of China (2012CB955904)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31171452)the Sustainable Agriculture Innovation Network initiated and funded by Defra UK and Minstry of Agriculture of China (H5105000)
文摘Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFA0606001)the Ozone Formation Mechanism and Control Strategies Project of Research Center of Eco-Environmental Sciences+3 种基金Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.RCEES-CYZX-2020)the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42171463)H.T.and S.P.were supported by the US National Science Foundation(No.1903722)Andrew Carnegie Fellowship(No.G-F-19–56910).
文摘Surface ozone(O_(3))pollution showed a continuous increasing trend during the recent decades in China,posing an increasing threat to food security.A wide range of yield reductions have been reported and thus more studies are needed to narrow down the uncertainty resulting from spatiotemporal accuracy of O_(3) metrics and extrapolation methods.Based on a high spatial resolution(0.1°)hourly surface O_(3) data,here we analyzed the spatiotemporal O_(3) pollution patterns and impacts on yield,production and economic losses for wheat,rice,and maize in China during 2005–2020.The accumulated O_(3) exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb(AOT40)increased by 10%during 2005–2019,and a decrease of 5.56%was observed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 lockdowns.Rising O_(3) pollution reduced national level wheat,rice and maize yields by 14.51%±0.43%,11.10%±0.6%,and 3.99%±0.11%,respectively.A Business-As-Usual projection suggested that the relative yield loss(RYL)would potentially reach 8%–18%at the national scale by 2050 if no emission control is implemented.COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 led to significantly reduced RYL for maize(0.52%)and rice(2.17%)but not for wheat(0.11%),with the largest reduction(1.88%–9.4%)in North China Plain,highlighting the potential benefits of emission control.Our findings provided robust evidence that rising O_(3) pollution has significantly affected China’s crop yields,production and economic losses,underscoring the urgent need to curb O_(3) pollution to safeguard food security,particularly in densely populated and industrialized regions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42371483,and 42401573)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation,China(2022B1515130001)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(2024A1515012081 and 2025A1515010770)the Guangzhou Basic and Applied Basic Research Project,China(202201011666)the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(GZB20240880).
文摘The increasing frequency of compound extreme events under ongoing climate change threatens global food security.Compared to individual extreme events,the simultaneous occurrence of multiple extreme events can exacerbate crop yield reductions,yet comprehensive assessments of these compound effects remain limited.To bridge this gap,we applied a linear mixed-effects model to quantify the impacts of individual extreme events(cold days(CD)and killing degree days(KDD))and triple compound extreme events(heatwave and low precipitation(HWLP)and hot-dry-windy(HDW))on the global yields of winter wheat,soybeans,and maize from 1982 to 2016.Our analysis indicated that regions severely impacted by extreme events(exceeding the 95%threshold)experienced total crop yield losses of more than 9.16,24.89,26.69,and 7.12%due to CD,KDD,HWLP,and HDW,respectively.The adverse effects of compound events were particularly pronounced during critical growth stages.HWLP results in yield losses of 9.4%for winter wheat and 6.8%for maize per 10 hours of exposure during the heading to harvesting stages,while soybean yields declined by 8.8%per 10 hours during the planting to three-true-leaf stage.Similarly,KDD caused a 7.4%yield reduction in winter wheat per 10°C day during the heading to harvesting stages,a 9.5%reduction in maize per 10°C day during the planting to jointing stages,and a 3.8%reduction in soybean per 10°C day during the planting to three-true-leaf stages.These findings underscore the substantial contribution of compound extreme events,which are often overlooked in existing risk assessments,in determining the global yields of major staple crops.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42177341)the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shanxi,China(202203021222138).
文摘Organic material combined with inorganic fertilizer has been shown to greatly improve crop yield and maintain soil fertility globally. However, it remains unclear if crop yield and soil fertility can be sustained in the long term under the combined application of organic and inorganic fertilizers. Three long-term field trials were conducted to investigate the effects of organic amendments on the grain sustainable yield index(SYI), soil fertility index(SFI)and nutrient balance in maize–wheat cropping systems of central and southern China during 1991–2019. Five treatments were included in the trials: 1) no fertilization(control);2) balanced mineral fertilization(NPK);3) NPK plus manure(NPKM);4) high dose of NPK plus manure(1.5NPKM);and 5) NPK plus crop straw(NPKS). Over time, the grain yields of wheat and maize showed an increasing trend in all four fertilization treatments at the Yangling(YL) and Zhengzhou(ZZ) locations, while they declined at Qiyang(QY). The grain yield in the NPKM and 1.5NPKM treatments gradually exceeded that of the NPK and NPKS treatments at the QY site. The largest SYI was recorded in the NPKM treatment across the three sites, suggesting that inorganic fertilizer combined with manure can effectively improve crop yield sustainability. Higher SYI values were recorded at the YL and ZZ sites than at the QY site, possibly because the soil was more acid at QY. The key factors affecting grain yield were soil available phosphorus(AP) and available potassium(AK) at the YL and ZZ sites, and pH and AP at the QY site.All fertilization treatments resulted in soil N and P surpluses at the three sites, but soil K surpluses were recorded only at the QY site. The SFI was greater in the 1.5NPKM, NPKM and NPKS treatments than in the NPK treatment by 13.3–40.0 and 16.4–63.6% at the YL and ZZ sites, respectively, and was significantly higher in the NPKM and 1.5NPKM treatments than in the NPK and NPKS treatments at the QY site. A significant, positive linear relationship was found between SFI and crop yield, and SYI and nutrient balance, indicating that grain yield and its sustainability significantly increased with increasing soil fertility. The apparent N, P and K balances positively affected SFI.This study suggests that the appropriate amount of manure mixed with mineral NPK fertilizer is beneficial to the development of sustainable agriculture, which effectively increases the crop yield and yield sustainability by improving soil fertility.
基金funded by CAS Project for Young Scientists in Basic Research(YSBR-072-8)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFF1000203 and 2022YFF1001704)。
文摘The crop yields achieved through traditional plant breeding techniques appear to be nearing a plateau.Therefore,it is essential to accelerate advancements in photosynthesis,the fundamental process by which plants convert light energy into chemical energy,to further enhance crop yields.Research focused on improving photosynthesis holds significant promise for increasing sustainable agricultural productivity and addressing challenges related to global food security.This review examines the latest advancements and strategies aimed at boosting crop yields by enhancing photosynthetic efficiency.There has been a linear increase in yield over the years in historically released germplasm selected through traditional breeding methods,and this increase is accompanied by improved photosynthesis.We explore various aspects of the light reactions designed to enhance crop yield,including light harvest efficiency through smart canopy systems,expanding the absorbed light spectrum to include far-red light,optimizing non-photochemical quenching,and accelerating electron transport flux.At the same time,we investigate carbon reactions that can enhance crop yield,such as manipulating Rubisco activity,improving the Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle,introducing CO_(2)concentrating mechanisms in C_(3)plants,and optimizing carbon allocation.These strategies could significantly impact crop yield enhancement and help bridge the yield gap.
基金funded by the Tianshan Yingcai Program of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2022TSYCCX0038)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Y2022108)the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation(CPSF)(GZC20232962).
文摘The Tarim River Basin(TRB)is a vast area with plenty of light and heat and is an important base for grain and cotton production in Northwest China.In the context of climate change,however,the increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events is having numerous negative impacts on the region's agricultural production.To better understand how unfavorable climatic conditions affect crop production,we explored the relationship of extreme weather and climate events with crop yields and phenology.In this research,ten indicators of extreme weather and climate events(consecutive dry days(CDD),min Tmax(TXn),max Tmin(TNx),tropical nights(TR),warm days(Tx90p),warm nights(Tn90p),summer days(SU),frost days(FD),very wet days(R95p),and windy days(WD))were selected to analyze the impact of spatial and temporal variations on the yields of major crops(wheat,maize,and cotton)in the TRB from 1990 to 2020.The three key findings of this research were as follows:extreme temperatures in southwestern TRB showed an increasing trend,with higher extreme temperatures at night,while the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events in northeastern TRB was relatively low.The number of FD was on the rise,while WD also increased in recent years.Crop yields were higher in the northeast compared with the southwest,and wheat,maize,and cotton yields generally showed an increasing trend despite an earlier decline.The correlation of extreme weather and climate events on crop yields can be categorized as extreme nighttime temperature indices(TNx,Tn90p,TR,and FD),extreme daytime temperature indices(TXn,Tx90p,and SU),extreme precipitation indices(CDD and R95p),and extreme wind(WD).By using Random Forest(RF)approach to determine the effects of different extreme weather and climate events on the yields of different crops,we found that the importance of extreme precipitation indices(CDD and R95p)to crop yield decreased significantly over time.As well,we found that the importance of the extreme nighttime temperature(TR and TNx)for the yields of the three crops increased during 2005-2020 compared with 1990-2005.The impact of extreme temperature events on wheat,maize,and cotton yields in the TRB is becoming increasingly significant,and this finding can inform policy decisions and agronomic innovations to better cope with current and future climate warming.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3901103)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(22288102)the Science and Technology Plan Project of the Xinjiang Production and Con-struction Crops(XPCC)(2023AB017-01).
文摘1.The key to achieving China’s dual carbon goals As pointed out in the CO_(2) Emissions in 2023 report released by the International Energy Agency,global carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emis-sions reached 37.4 billion tonnes in 2023[1],setting a new record high.The increase in CO_(2) emissions has exacerbated global warm-ing and led to a series of global climate problems.China is a major emitter of CO_(2).
基金funded by the Key Research and Development Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2023A02002-2)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFD1901503)the Central Guidance Fund for Local Science and Technology Development of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(ZYYD2024CG03)。
文摘Biochar and animal manure application can improve crop yields in salt-affected soil.Previous studies have primarily applied biochar and animal manure either alone or at fixed ratios,while their combined effects with varying combination proportions are still unclear.To address this knowledge gap,we performed a 2-a experiment(2023-2024)in a salinized cotton field in Wensu County of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China with the following 6 treatments:control;application of biochar(10t/hm^(2))alone(BC100%);application of cow manure(10 t/hm^(2))alone(CM100%);application of 70%biochar(7 t/hm^(2))combined with 30%cow manure(3 t/hm^(2))(BC70%+CM30%);application of 50%biochar(5 t/hm^(2))combined with 50%cow manure(5 t/hm^(2))(BC50%+CM50%);and application of 30%biochar(3 t/hm^(2))combined with 70%cow manure(7 t/hm^(2))(BC30%+CM70%).By measuring soil pH,electrical conductivity,soil organic matter,available phosphorus,available potassium,and available nitrogen at 0-20 and 20-40 cm depths,as well as yield components and cotton yield in 2023 and 2024,this study revealed that soil nutrients in the 0-20 cm depth were more sensitive to the treatment.Among all the treatments,BC50%+CM50%treatment had the highest value of soil pH(9.63±0.07)but the lowest values of electrical conductivity(161.9±31.8μS/cm),soil organic matter(1.88±0.27 g/kg),and available potassium(42.72±8.25 mg/kg)in 2024.Moreover,the highest cotton yield(5336.63±467.72 kg/hm^(2))was also observed under BC50%+CM50%treatment in 2024,which was 1.9 times greater than that under the control treatment.In addition,cotton yield in 2023 was jointly determined by yield components(density and number of cotton bolls)and soil nutrients(available phosphorus and available potassium),but in 2024,cotton yield was only positively related to yield components(density,number of cotton bolls,and single boll weight).Overall,this study highlighted that in salt-affected soil,the combination of biochar and cow manure at a 1:1 ratio is recommended for increasing cotton yield and reducing soil salinity stress.
文摘The article examines the impact of increased aridization of the territory due to an increase in air temperature,reduced precipitation,and the formation of moisture deficiency on grain yields in Northern Kazakhstan.The most important result of the work is the revealed inverse relationship between grain yields and the temperature of the growing season:low-yielding years are associated with high temperatures and droughts,and high-yielding years are associated with lower temperatures and an optimal ratio of heat and moisture.The novelty of this study is the use of the method of hydrological and climatic calculations in identifying the nature of temperature variability and precipitation in the territory of Northern Kazakhstan for the modern period(1991–2020)compared with the base period(1961–1990).At all the studied meteorological stations,there is a tendency for the average annual temperature and the temperature of the growing season to increase:in the forest-steppe zone with an average warming intensity of 0.3–0.33℃ per decade;in the steppe zone by 0.2–0.43℃ per decade;and in the growing season by 0.2–0.7℃ per decade.The air temperature in the steppe zone is rising more intensively than in the forest-steppe zone,and precipitation in the forest-steppe zone has changed more than in the steppe zone.An increase in the average annual air temperature during the growing season(May–August),combined with a shortage of atmospheric moisture or a constant amount of it,led to an increase in the degree of aridization of the territory,an increase in the frequency of droughts in the steppe zone of Northern Kazakhstan.
文摘Different ratios of NPK were adopted in this research to study its effects on the objective traits of 2 early forage-rice varieties, and to obtain the optimum ratio to further improve the application technique in theory. At the same time, the possibility of increasing yield and protein content in the grain through cultivation technique was also studied. The conclusions were：
基金Support by the Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest of China(201203030-5)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41201288,41201255,31301284)+2 种基金Key Programs for Science and Technology Development of Henan Province(132102110068)Excellent Youth Science and Technology Foundation of Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences(2013YQ15)JIRCAS-IARRP collaborative research:Estimation of the Present States of Fertilizer Use and Livestock Production and Their Environmental Load~~
文摘[Objective] Long-term （over 18 years） fertilization experiments were con- ducted to study the responses of crop yields and soil fertility to long-term nutrient lacking at Zhengzhou in China. [Method] The present study consisted of five treat- ments： 1 CK （no fertilizer or manure）, （2） NP （nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer applied）, 31 NK （nitrogen and potassium fertilizer applied）, 4 PK （phosphorus and potassium fertilizer applied） and ：5 NPK （nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertil- izer applied）. [Result] Lacking of nitrogen or phosphorus led to a low yield; however, there was no significant difference in grain yields between the NP and NPK treat- ments which maintained a higher yield. Receiving no phosphorus, soil available phosphorus content declined to about 2.5 mg/kg. The concentration of soil ex- changeable potassium remained constant at a level of 60 mg/kg under the treat- ments without potassium fertilizer addition. Soil potassium spontaneous supply ca- pacity fluctuated around 100%.[Conclusion] In fluvo-aquic soil, nitrogen and phos- phorus were two key limiting factors to grain yields, biomass and yield component factors of wheat and maize, while potassium was not. However, potassium defi- ciency may occur in the future if there was still no potassium fertilizer applied.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41171211)
文摘It remains unclear whether biochar applications to calcareous soils can improve soil fertility and crop yield. A long-term field experiment was established in 2009 so as to determine the effect of biochar on crop yield and soil properties in a calcareous soil. Five treatments were： 1） straw incorporation; 2） straw incorporation with inorganic fertilizer; 3）, 4） and 5） straw incorporation with inorganic fertilizer, and biochar at 30, 60, and 90 t ha-l, respectively. The annual yield of either winter wheat or summer maize was not increased significantly following biochar application, whereas the cumulative yield over the first 4 growing seasons was significantly increased. Soil pH, measured in situ, was increased by a maximum of 0.35 units after 2 yr following biochar application. After 3 yr, soil bulk density significantly decreased while soil water holding capacity increased with adding biochar of 90 t ha^-1. Alkaline hydrolysable N decreased but exchangeable K increased due to biochar addition. Olsen-P did not change compared to the treatment without biochar. The results suggested that biochar could be used in calcareous soils without yield loss or significant impacts on nutrient availability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 31572212 and 31372142)the National Key Basic Research Program of China (No. 2015CB150503)+5 种基金the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (No. 2013AA102802)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China (No. BK20150059)the Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of Chinathe 111 Project of China (No. B12009)the National Training Program of Innovation and Entrepreneurship for Undergraduates of China (No. 201410307089)the "Qing Lan" Project of China
文摘Plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria （PGPR） are considered to be the most promising agents for cash crop production via increasing crop yields and decreasing disease occurrence. The Bacillus amyloliquefaciens strain W19 can produce secondary metabolites （iturin and bacillomycin D） effectively against Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense （FOC）. In this study, the ability of a bio-organic fertilizer （BIO） containing strain W19 to promote plant growth and suppress the Fusarium wilt of banana was evaluated in both pot and field experiments. The results showed that application of BIO significantly promoted the growth and fruit yield of banana while suppressing the banana Fusariurn wilt disease. To further determine the beneficial mechanisms of the strain, the colonization of green fluorescent protein-tagged strain W19 on banana roots was observed using confocal laser scanning microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The effect of banana root exudates on the formation of biofilm of strain W19 indicated that the banana root exudates may enhance colonization. In addition, the strain W19 was able to produce indole-3-acetic acid （IAA）, a plant growth-promoting hormone. The results of these experiments revealed that the application of strain W19-enriched BIO improved the banana root colonization of strain W19 and growth of banana and suppressed the Fusarium wilt. The PGPR strain W19 can be a useful biocontrol agent for the production of banana under field conditions.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41001057 The Science and Technology Strategic Pilot of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA05090308+1 种基金 No.XDA05090310 Project Supported by State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, No.2011-KF-06
文摘Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate rela- tively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale （e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale）. Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.
文摘Effect of application of K fertilizer and wheat straw to soil on crop yield and status of soil K in the plough layer under different planting systems was studied.The experiments on long-term application of K fertilizer and wheat straw to soil in Hebei fluvo aquic soil and Shanxi brown soil in northern China were begun in 1992.The results showed that K fertilizer and straw could improve the yields of wheat and maize with the order of NPK+St〉NPK〉NP+St〉NP,and treatment of K fertilizer made a significant difference to NP,and the efficiency of K fertilizer in maize was higher than in wheat under rotation system of Hebei.In contrast with Shanxi,the wastage of soil potassium was a more serious issue in the rotation system in Hebei,only treatment of NPK+St showed a surplus of potassium and the others showed a wane.K fertilizer and straw could improve the content of water-soluble K,nonspecifically adsorbed K,non-exchangeable K,mineral K,and total K in contrast to NP;however,K fertilizer and straw reduce the proportion of mineral K and improve proportion of other forms of potassium in the two locating sites.Compared with the beginning of orientation,temporal variability character of soil K content and proportion showed a difference between the two soil types;furthermore,there was a decrease in the content of mineral K and total K simultaneously in the two locating sites.As a whole,the effect of K fertilizer applied to soil directly excelled to wheat straw to soil.Wheat straw to soil was an effective measure to complement potassium to increase crop yield and retard the decrease of soil K.
基金funded by the Mode Construction of Modern Farming System and Supporting Technology Research and Demonstration, China (200803028)
文摘Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more and more attention from Chinese government and scientists. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the national northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. Also, the possible change of crop yield caused by planting limits displacement during the periods 1950s-1981 and 1981-2007 was compared and discussed. The recognized calculation methods of agricultural climatic indices were employed. According to the indices of climatic regionalization for cropping systems, the national northern limits of cropping systems, winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation during two periods, including the 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007, were drawn with ArcGIS software. Compared with the situation during the 1950s- 1980, the northern limits of double cropping system during 1981-2007 showed significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning provinces and Beijing municipality, China. The northern limits of triple cropping system showed the maximum spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, China. Without considering variety change and social economic factors, the per unit area grain yield of main planting patterns would increase about 54-106% if single cropping system was replaced by double cropping system, which turned out to be 27- 58% if double cropping system was replaced by triple cropping system. In Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia autonomous regions, China, the northern limits of winter wheat during 1981-2007 moved northward and expanded westward in different degrees, compared with those during the 1950s-1980. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the northern limits of winter wheat moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would averagely increase about 25% in the change region if the spring wheat was replaced by winter wheat. In Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan provinces, China, the planting northern limits of double rice moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would increase in different degrees only from the perspective of heat resource. The stable- yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward in most regions, which was caused by the decrease of local precipitation in recent years. During the past 50 yr, climate warming made the national northern limits of cropping systems move northward in different degrees, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice both moved northward, and the cropping system change would cause the increase of per unit area grain yield in the change region. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward due to the decrease of precipitation.
文摘A long term fertilization experiment was carried out in an experimental field in Lyczyn near Warsaw, Poland. Application ofmineral fertilizers, especially N fertilizers with and without farmyard manure accelerated the acidification process of the soil. Application of 1.6 t CaO ha -1 every four years was essential to maintenance of the soil pH KCl at 5.5～6.6 and base saturation degree above 60%. Application of 50 t farmyard manure ha -1 every 4 years, which contained 46 kg P and 240 kg K, was sufficient to maintain both the K and P fertility of the soil. Besides, it was beneficial to alleviating soil acidification. As a result of long term unbalanced fertilization, yield responses to N, P and K fertilizers increased significantly with time. The efficiency of N from farmyard manure was found to be comparable to that of N fertilizer during 1988～1991.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS-ASTIP-2016-AII)。
文摘The accurate prediction of soybean yield is of great significance for agricultural production, monitoring and early warning.Although previous studies have used machine learning algorithms to predict soybean yield based on meteorological data,it is not clear how different models can be used to effectively separate soybean meteorological yield from soybean yield in various regions. In addition, comprehensively integrating the advantages of various machine learning algorithms to improve the prediction accuracy through ensemble learning algorithms has not been studied in depth. This study used and analyzed various daily meteorological data and soybean yield data from 173 county-level administrative regions and meteorological stations in two principal soybean planting areas in China(Northeast China and the Huang–Huai region), covering 34 years.Three effective machine learning algorithms(K-nearest neighbor, random forest, and support vector regression) were adopted as the base-models to establish a high-precision and highly-reliable soybean meteorological yield prediction model based on the stacking ensemble learning framework. The model's generalizability was further improved through 5-fold crossvalidation, and the model was optimized by principal component analysis and hyperparametric optimization. The accuracy of the model was evaluated by using the five-year sliding prediction and four regression indicators of the 173 counties, which showed that the stacking model has higher accuracy and stronger robustness. The 5-year sliding estimations of soybean yield based on the stacking model in 173 counties showed that the prediction effect can reflect the spatiotemporal distribution of soybean yield in detail, and the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) was less than 5%. The stacking prediction model of soybean meteorological yield provides a new approach for accurately predicting soybean yield.
文摘Biochar(BC)is widely applied in agricultural production for its multiple uses such as carbon sequestration.However,application of BC alone has limited effect on soil fertility and crop yield,especially alkaline soil.Therefore,a pot experiment on Chinese cabbage(Brassica rapa var.glabra)was carried out in this study to investigate the effect of BC applied with organic fertilizer(OF)on alkaline soil properties and crop yield.To be specific,BC and OF were respectively applied at 0,1%,2%,and 3%,and Chinese cabbage was transplanted and cultivated for 2.5 months.Results showed that BC and OF increased the content of both organic matter and available P in alkaline soil(P<0.05).Moreover,the application of OF alone decreased the pH value but raised available N content of alkaline soil,and the application of only BC demonstrated the contrary effect(P<0.05).OF significantly improved crop yield(P<0.05),but the effect of BC was insignificant.Crop yield was the highest under the treatment of 1%BC and 3%OF.Thus,BC had limited effect on alkaline soil fertility and crop yield,but the application with OF was a good option for ameliorating alkaline soil and raising crop yield.
文摘In this paper,spatial correlation of crop yield in the middle and west of Jilin Province is analyzed by us-ing the method of geostatistics semivariogram,taking the NDVI of NOAA/AVHRR spectrum data as the regionalized vari-able,aiming to provide theory and practical basis for field sampling of crop yield estimation using remote sensing.The ratio of nugget variance and sill of semivariograms are 21.1% and 9.7% in the west and middle regions in Jilin Province respectively.This shows that the crop yields are spatially correlated.The degree and range of correlation are far different in the different situations.In the west test region,the range is 49.9 km and the sill is 0.00019.In the middle testre-gion,the range is 16.5 km and the sill is0.00453.The dissimilarity in the western test region is larger than that in the middle one.The range in which the correlation existed of the former is far larger than the later.Different character is tics of spatial correlation of crop yield are decided by the environmental factors.Samples for crop yield estimation should be extracted according to the characteristic of spatial distribution of crop yield to promote the efficiency of sampling.
