Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 following the US military withdrawal,Pakistan has seen a sharp deterioration in its terrorism situation.Terrorist forces such as the Tehrik-e Taliban P...Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 following the US military withdrawal,Pakistan has seen a sharp deterioration in its terrorism situation.Terrorist forces such as the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan,Baloch separatist groups,and the Islamic State-Khorasan Province have taken advantage of the chaos and frequently attacked government agencies and other“high-value targets”throughout Pakistan,especially in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.There have also been terrorist attacks against China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects and personnel.The reasons for the deterioration of Pakistan's terrorism situation are multiple.Domestically,Pakistan faces many governance problems,failing to eradicate the breeding grounds for terrorism.Internationally,the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of US troops have dramatically altered the regional security landscape,leading to a significant surge in terrorist activities in Pakistan.Moreover,souring relations between Islamabad and Kabul have added to the complications of Pakistan's fight against terrorism.Amidst growing terrorist threats,the recent two cabinets of Pakistan'have introduced a series of counter-terrorism policies,which,despite demonstrating a strong determination,have yielded few results.Pakistan still faces enormous pressure from terrorism,and its security situation is far from optimistic.展开更多
Since the end of the Cold War, the non-proliferation work on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) has gradually become the first priority in the field of arms control and international security. With the unswerving effor...Since the end of the Cold War, the non-proliferation work on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) has gradually become the first priority in the field of arms control and international security. With the unswerving efforts by international community, enormous progress has been made in the construction .展开更多
Terrorist attacks represent a significant threat to national order,social stability,and economic security.Accurate prediction of such attacks is a critical task for casualty reduction,enhanced decision-making,and opti...Terrorist attacks represent a significant threat to national order,social stability,and economic security.Accurate prediction of such attacks is a critical task for casualty reduction,enhanced decision-making,and optimal resource distribution in counter-terrorism efforts.This paper introduces an innovative spatio-temporal fusion framework that combines graph convolutional network(GCN)with long short-term memory(LSTM)models.By capturing and merging spatio-temporal features from relevant events,the proposed GCN-LSTM model achieves remarkable accuracy in predicting terrorist attacks.The experimental results demonstrate outstanding perfor-mance,with the model attaining minimal RMSE and MAE values of 0.037 and 0.031,respectively,surpassing all baseline models(LSTM,GCN,and CNN-LSTM-Transformer).Through its effective interpretation of complex spatio-temporal patterns underlying terrorist attacks,our model substantially enhances the predictive accuracy across diverse time horizons.These findings carry crucial implications for enhancing counter-terrorism strategies.展开更多
This article seeks to explain the differing counter-terrorist effects in Algeria and Yemen over the past two decades.While terrorism peaked in both countries in the late 1990s and incumbents in both countries responde...This article seeks to explain the differing counter-terrorist effects in Algeria and Yemen over the past two decades.While terrorism peaked in both countries in the late 1990s and incumbents in both countries responded with“carrot and stick”strategies,the results have been entirely different,with Yemen mired in deeper violence,whereas domestic terrorist forces were almost wiped out in Algeria in the late 2000s.To account for this variance and to measure the effects of the“carrot and stick”approach,the article adopts the state capacity model by analyzing how Bouteflika centralized Algeria’s bureaucracy and administration since 1999 which facilitated the communication between the intelligence,military and judiciary,thus strengthening military operations and law enforcement,and how Saleh’s Yemen filled with separatism and sectarianism aggravated the regime’s deficiencies of information collection and revenue concentration,leading to the continuation of terrorism.Evidence from my framework and cases suggest that coping with terrorist violence requires much more thoroughgoing measures than military blows;legislative efforts and national dialogues.The study is not limited to the cases of Algeria and Yemen,but aims at shedding light on more countries confronted with terrorist threat.展开更多
This paper explores the mitigation of terrorism risks based on dynamic interactions between terrorist organizations and governments with asymmetric information.Uncertainties in the objectives and capabilities of terro...This paper explores the mitigation of terrorism risks based on dynamic interactions between terrorist organizations and governments with asymmetric information.Uncertainties in the objectives and capabilities of terrorists complicate defensive resource allocations for the public safety.Simultaneous and sequential game models are developed to investigate the asymmetric information effects on defensive strategies and terrorism risk analysis.The government can detect explicit or implicit signals to support decisions and update its beliefs according to a Bayesian law after it receives a terrorist threat.Analyses of the equilibrium for the signaling game indicate that the optimal government defensive strategy will significantly impact the actions of the terrorists.Asymmetric information is shown to play a crucial role in security decision making and terrorism risk mitigation,with the optimal defensive strategy changing according to terrorists and government capabilities.展开更多
文摘Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 following the US military withdrawal,Pakistan has seen a sharp deterioration in its terrorism situation.Terrorist forces such as the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan,Baloch separatist groups,and the Islamic State-Khorasan Province have taken advantage of the chaos and frequently attacked government agencies and other“high-value targets”throughout Pakistan,especially in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.There have also been terrorist attacks against China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects and personnel.The reasons for the deterioration of Pakistan's terrorism situation are multiple.Domestically,Pakistan faces many governance problems,failing to eradicate the breeding grounds for terrorism.Internationally,the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of US troops have dramatically altered the regional security landscape,leading to a significant surge in terrorist activities in Pakistan.Moreover,souring relations between Islamabad and Kabul have added to the complications of Pakistan's fight against terrorism.Amidst growing terrorist threats,the recent two cabinets of Pakistan'have introduced a series of counter-terrorism policies,which,despite demonstrating a strong determination,have yielded few results.Pakistan still faces enormous pressure from terrorism,and its security situation is far from optimistic.
文摘Since the end of the Cold War, the non-proliferation work on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) has gradually become the first priority in the field of arms control and international security. With the unswerving efforts by international community, enormous progress has been made in the construction .
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,grant number 72274208.
文摘Terrorist attacks represent a significant threat to national order,social stability,and economic security.Accurate prediction of such attacks is a critical task for casualty reduction,enhanced decision-making,and optimal resource distribution in counter-terrorism efforts.This paper introduces an innovative spatio-temporal fusion framework that combines graph convolutional network(GCN)with long short-term memory(LSTM)models.By capturing and merging spatio-temporal features from relevant events,the proposed GCN-LSTM model achieves remarkable accuracy in predicting terrorist attacks.The experimental results demonstrate outstanding perfor-mance,with the model attaining minimal RMSE and MAE values of 0.037 and 0.031,respectively,surpassing all baseline models(LSTM,GCN,and CNN-LSTM-Transformer).Through its effective interpretation of complex spatio-temporal patterns underlying terrorist attacks,our model substantially enhances the predictive accuracy across diverse time horizons.These findings carry crucial implications for enhancing counter-terrorism strategies.
文摘This article seeks to explain the differing counter-terrorist effects in Algeria and Yemen over the past two decades.While terrorism peaked in both countries in the late 1990s and incumbents in both countries responded with“carrot and stick”strategies,the results have been entirely different,with Yemen mired in deeper violence,whereas domestic terrorist forces were almost wiped out in Algeria in the late 2000s.To account for this variance and to measure the effects of the“carrot and stick”approach,the article adopts the state capacity model by analyzing how Bouteflika centralized Algeria’s bureaucracy and administration since 1999 which facilitated the communication between the intelligence,military and judiciary,thus strengthening military operations and law enforcement,and how Saleh’s Yemen filled with separatism and sectarianism aggravated the regime’s deficiencies of information collection and revenue concentration,leading to the continuation of terrorism.Evidence from my framework and cases suggest that coping with terrorist violence requires much more thoroughgoing measures than military blows;legislative efforts and national dialogues.The study is not limited to the cases of Algeria and Yemen,but aims at shedding light on more countries confronted with terrorist threat.
基金Supported by the Key Technologies Research and DevelopmentProgram of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan of China (No 2006BAK04A08)
文摘This paper explores the mitigation of terrorism risks based on dynamic interactions between terrorist organizations and governments with asymmetric information.Uncertainties in the objectives and capabilities of terrorists complicate defensive resource allocations for the public safety.Simultaneous and sequential game models are developed to investigate the asymmetric information effects on defensive strategies and terrorism risk analysis.The government can detect explicit or implicit signals to support decisions and update its beliefs according to a Bayesian law after it receives a terrorist threat.Analyses of the equilibrium for the signaling game indicate that the optimal government defensive strategy will significantly impact the actions of the terrorists.Asymmetric information is shown to play a crucial role in security decision making and terrorism risk mitigation,with the optimal defensive strategy changing according to terrorists and government capabilities.
