With the continuous application of new technologies in reconnaissance and attack, false camouflage plays a more important role in improving the survivability of targets, and the number of decoys plays a crucial role i...With the continuous application of new technologies in reconnaissance and attack, false camouflage plays a more important role in improving the survivability of targets, and the number of decoys plays a crucial role in the camouflaging effect. Based on the concept of cost-effectiveness ratio, according to the newly formulated Johnson criterion and the view of discovery and destruction, this paper proposes to take the identification probability as the probability of being destroyed and uses mathematical formulas to calculate the cost of a single use decoy. On this basis, a cost-effectiveness ratio model is established, with the product of the increase in the survival probability of the target and the cost of the target as the benefit, and the sum of the product of the probability of being destroyed and the cost of the decoy and the cost of a single use as the consumption cost. The model is calculated and analyzed, and the number of decoys that conform to the actual situation is obtained.展开更多
In this paper,an explosive cyclone(EC)that occurred over Northeast China in the spring of 2016 is studied by using 6.7μm FY satellite water vapor(WV)imagery and NCEP(1°×1°)reanalysis data.Moreover,the ...In this paper,an explosive cyclone(EC)that occurred over Northeast China in the spring of 2016 is studied by using 6.7μm FY satellite water vapor(WV)imagery and NCEP(1°×1°)reanalysis data.Moreover,the evolutions of the upper-level jet stream(ULJ),the vertical motions,and the potential vorticity(PV)are analyzed in detail.Results show that different shapes of the WV image dark zones could reflect different stages of the EC.At the pre-explosion stage,a small dark zone and an S-shaped baroclinic leaf cloud can be found on the WV imagery.Then the dark zone expands and the leaf cloud grows into a comma-shaped cloud at the explosively developing stage.At the post-explosion stage,the dark zone brightens,and the spiral cloud forms.The whole process can be well described by the WV imagery.The dynamic dry band associated with the sinking motion and the ULJ can develop into the dry intrusion later,which is an important signal in forecasting the EC and should be paid attention to when analyzing the WV imagery.Furthermore,the mechanism is also analyzed in detail in this article.EC usually occurs in the left-exit region of the 200-h Pa jet and the region ahead of the 500-h Pa trough where there is significant positive vorticity advection(PVA).When the EC moves onto the sea surface,the decreased friction would favour the development of the EC.The upper-level PVA,the strong convergence at low level,and the divergence at high levels can maintain the strong updraft.Meanwhile,the high PV zone from the upper levels extends downward,approaching the cyclone.Together,they keep the cyclone deepening continuously.展开更多
文摘With the continuous application of new technologies in reconnaissance and attack, false camouflage plays a more important role in improving the survivability of targets, and the number of decoys plays a crucial role in the camouflaging effect. Based on the concept of cost-effectiveness ratio, according to the newly formulated Johnson criterion and the view of discovery and destruction, this paper proposes to take the identification probability as the probability of being destroyed and uses mathematical formulas to calculate the cost of a single use decoy. On this basis, a cost-effectiveness ratio model is established, with the product of the increase in the survival probability of the target and the cost of the target as the benefit, and the sum of the product of the probability of being destroyed and the cost of the decoy and the cost of a single use as the consumption cost. The model is calculated and analyzed, and the number of decoys that conform to the actual situation is obtained.
基金Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2021LASW-B17)Shanghai Typhoon Research Foundation(TFJJ202006)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175008,42030611)。
文摘In this paper,an explosive cyclone(EC)that occurred over Northeast China in the spring of 2016 is studied by using 6.7μm FY satellite water vapor(WV)imagery and NCEP(1°×1°)reanalysis data.Moreover,the evolutions of the upper-level jet stream(ULJ),the vertical motions,and the potential vorticity(PV)are analyzed in detail.Results show that different shapes of the WV image dark zones could reflect different stages of the EC.At the pre-explosion stage,a small dark zone and an S-shaped baroclinic leaf cloud can be found on the WV imagery.Then the dark zone expands and the leaf cloud grows into a comma-shaped cloud at the explosively developing stage.At the post-explosion stage,the dark zone brightens,and the spiral cloud forms.The whole process can be well described by the WV imagery.The dynamic dry band associated with the sinking motion and the ULJ can develop into the dry intrusion later,which is an important signal in forecasting the EC and should be paid attention to when analyzing the WV imagery.Furthermore,the mechanism is also analyzed in detail in this article.EC usually occurs in the left-exit region of the 200-h Pa jet and the region ahead of the 500-h Pa trough where there is significant positive vorticity advection(PVA).When the EC moves onto the sea surface,the decreased friction would favour the development of the EC.The upper-level PVA,the strong convergence at low level,and the divergence at high levels can maintain the strong updraft.Meanwhile,the high PV zone from the upper levels extends downward,approaching the cyclone.Together,they keep the cyclone deepening continuously.
