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Analysis of Short-term Cloud Feedback in East Asia Using Cloud Radiative Kernels 被引量:4
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作者 Fei WANG Hua ZHANG +2 位作者 Qi CHEN Min ZHAO Ting YOU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第9期1007-1018,共12页
Cloud radiative kernels were built by BCC_RAD(Beijing Climate Center radiative transfer model)radiative transfer code.Then,short-term cloud feedback and its mechanisms in East Asia(0.5°S−60.5°N,69.5°−15... Cloud radiative kernels were built by BCC_RAD(Beijing Climate Center radiative transfer model)radiative transfer code.Then,short-term cloud feedback and its mechanisms in East Asia(0.5°S−60.5°N,69.5°−150.5°E)were analyzed quantitatively using the kernels combined with MODIS satellite data from July 2002 to June 2018.According to the surface and monsoon types,four subregions in East Asia-the Tibetan Plateau,northwest,temperate monsoon(TM),and subtropical monsoon(SM)—were selected.The average longwave,shortwave,and net cloud feedbacks in East Asia are−0.68±1.20,1.34±1.08,and 0.66±0.40 W m^−2 K^−1(±2σ),respectively,among which the net feedback is dominated by the positive shortwave feedback.Positive feedback in SM is the strongest of all subregions,mainly due to the contributions of nimbostratus and stratus.In East Asia,short-term feedback in spring is primarily caused by marine stratus in SM,in summer is primarily driven by deep convective cloud in TM,in autumn is mainly caused by land nimbostratus in SM,and in winter is mainly driven by land stratus in SM.Cloud feedback in East Asia is chiefly driven by decreases in mid-level and low cloud fraction owing to the changes in relative humidity,and a decrease in low cloud optical thickness due to the changes in cloud water content. 展开更多
关键词 short-term cloud feedback cloud radiative kernels satellite observation East Asia
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Evaluation of Cloud Feedback at Local Scale: Warming or Cooling?
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作者 Esmaiel Malek 《Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B)》 2015年第4期216-226,共11页
Clouds affect the climate by positive and negative feedback. To study these effects at local scale, a radiation station was set up, which used two CM21 Kipp & Zonen pyranometers (one inverted), and two CG1 Kipp & ... Clouds affect the climate by positive and negative feedback. To study these effects at local scale, a radiation station was set up, which used two CM21 Kipp & Zonen pyranometers (one inverted), and two CG1 Kipp & Zonen pyrgeometers (one inverted) in Logan, Utah, USA. The pyranometers and pyrgeometers were ventilated using four CV2 Kipp & Zonen ventilation systems. Ventilation of pyranometers and pyrgeometers prevent dew, frost and snow accumulation, which otherwise would disturb the measurement. Knowing that available energy (Rn) as Rn = Rsi - Rso + Rli - Rio where Rsi and Rso are downward and upward solar radiation, respectively, and Rli and Rio as atmospheric and terrestrial, respectively, the effects of cloudiness were evaluated on a daily and annual basis. The results indicate that for the partly cloudy days of 4 and 5 September, 2007, cloudiness caused less available energy (Rn) in the amounts of-1.83 MJ·m^-2·d^-1 and -3.83 MJ·m^-2·d^-1 on these days, respectively. As shown, due to cloudiness at the experimental site, the net radiation loss was 2,804 - 4,055 = -1,251 MJ·m^-2·d^-1, which indicates a negative feedback due to cloudiness. 展开更多
关键词 cloud feedback PYRANOMETER pyrgeometer.
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Cloud Feedback on SST Variability in the Western Equatorial Pacific in GOALS/LASG Model 被引量:5
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作者 刘辉 张学洪 吴国雄 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1998年第3期130-141,共12页
The cloud feedback on the SST variability in the western equatorial Pacific in GOALS/LASG model is studied in this paper. Two versions of the model, one with the diagnostic cloud and another with the prescribed cloud,... The cloud feedback on the SST variability in the western equatorial Pacific in GOALS/LASG model is studied in this paper. Two versions of the model, one with the diagnostic cloud and another with the prescribed cloud, are used. Both versions are integrated for 45 years. It is found that in the prescribed cloud run, the SST variability in the western equatorial Pacific is mainly of interdecadal time scale and the interannual variability is very weak. In the diagnostic cloud run, however, the interdecadal SST variability is depressed much and the interannual SST variability becomes much significant.The mechanism for the feedback is then explored. The variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the western equatorial Pacific is found to be controlled mainly by the zonal wind anomaly, through the process of upwelling/downwelling in both versions. Then it is found that in the diagnostic cloud case, the negative feedback of the solar short wave (SW) flux acts significantly to balance the effect of upwelling/downwelling in addition to the latent flux. In addition, the variability of the SW flux is shown to be closely related to the variability of the middle and high cloud covers. Therefore, the negative feedback of the SW surface flux may have significant contribution to the cloud feedback on the SST variability. 展开更多
关键词 cloud feedback on SST variability
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Thermodynamic Feedback between Clouds and the Ocean Surface Mixed Layer
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作者 P.C.Chu Roland W.Garwood Jr. 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1990年第1期1-10,共10页
A cloud-ocean planetary boundary layer (OPBL) feedback mechanism is presented and tested in this paper. Water vapor, evaporated from the ocean surface or transported by the large-scale air flow, often forms convective... A cloud-ocean planetary boundary layer (OPBL) feedback mechanism is presented and tested in this paper. Water vapor, evaporated from the ocean surface or transported by the large-scale air flow, often forms convective clouds under a conditionally unstable lapse rate. The variable cloud cover and rainfall may have positive and negative feedback with the ocean mixed layer temperature and salinity structure. The coupling of the simplified Kuo's (1965) cumulus cloud model to the Kraus-Turner's (1967) ocean mixed layer model shows the existence of this feedback mechanism. The theory also predicts the generation of low frequency oscillation in the atmosphere and oceans. 展开更多
关键词 CL feedback Thermodynamic feedback between clouds and the Ocean Surface Mixed Layer
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基于云端自进化学习的车辆轨迹预测方法
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作者 胡钊政 王圆海 +3 位作者 黄岩军 张佳楠 冯锋 孟杰 《汽车工程》 北大核心 2026年第2期308-320,共13页
在自动驾驶技术中,轨迹预测是保障系统安全与决策效率的关键环节。然而,现有方法普遍缺乏持续学习和自我进化能力,难以实现模型性能持续提升。为此,本文提出了一种基于云端自进化学习的车辆轨迹预测优化方法,结合闭环反馈机制与自适应... 在自动驾驶技术中,轨迹预测是保障系统安全与决策效率的关键环节。然而,现有方法普遍缺乏持续学习和自我进化能力,难以实现模型性能持续提升。为此,本文提出了一种基于云端自进化学习的车辆轨迹预测优化方法,结合闭环反馈机制与自适应学习策略,提升模型的性能和泛化能力。首先,构建云支持下轨迹预测自进化学习优化框架,通过车端数据实时采集与筛选、分布式云端自动化训练与验证以及优化模型自动下发,实现模型在多轮闭环反馈中高效持续优化。其次,设计多车协同的数据增强机制,通过虚实结合实现多模式数据采集并引入师徒模式进行车端负样本数据筛选,增强训练数据的代表性。最后,提出分布式云端轨迹预测模型优化方法,搭建分布式云端平台,其中,数据云负责融合多车异构数据,训练云与校验云分别执行大规模模型训练与迭代验证,并通过车云协同机制实现模型快速迭代与自适应部署。实验结果显示,经过多轮自进化学习,模型性能持续提升,车辆轨迹预测平均位移误差和最终位移误差相对改进率最高分别达到66.1%和57.1%,该方法显著提升了轨迹预测的准确性,具备良好的自适应性和持续优化能力。 展开更多
关键词 轨迹预测 自进化学习 分布式云端 闭环反馈
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Calculating the Climatology and Anomalies of Surface Cloud Radiative Effect Using Cloud Property Histograms and Cloud Radiative Kernels
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作者 Chen ZHOU Yincheng LIU Quan WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第12期2124-2136,共13页
Cloud radiative kernels(CRK)built with radiative transfer models have been widely used to analyze the cloud radiative effect on top of atmosphere(TOA)fluxes,and it is expected that the CRKs would also be useful in the... Cloud radiative kernels(CRK)built with radiative transfer models have been widely used to analyze the cloud radiative effect on top of atmosphere(TOA)fluxes,and it is expected that the CRKs would also be useful in the analyses of surface radiative fluxes,which determines the regional surface temperature change and variability.In this study,CRKs at the surface and TOA were built using the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model(RRTM).Longwave cloud radiative effect(CRE)at the surface is primarily driven by cloud base properties,while TOA CRE is primarily decided by cloud top properties.For this reason,the standard version of surface CRK is a function of latitude,longitude,month,cloud optical thickness(τ)and cloud base pressure(CBP),and the TOA CRK is a function of latitude,longitude,month,τand cloud top pressure(CTP).Considering that the cloud property histograms provided by climate models are functions of CTP instead of CBP at present,the surface CRKs on CBP-τhistograms were converted to CTP-τfields using the statistical relationship between CTP,CBP andτobtained from collocated CloudSat and MODIS observations.For both climate model outputs and satellites observations,the climatology of surface CRE and cloud-induced surface radiative anomalies calculated with the surface CRKs and cloud property histograms are well correlated with those calculated from surface radiative fluxes.The cloud-induced surface radiative anomalies reproduced by surface CRKs and MODIS cloud property histograms are not affected by spurious trends that appear in Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES)surface irradiances products. 展开更多
关键词 cloud radiative kernel surface radiative flux cloud feedback cloud properties cloud top pressure cloud base pressure
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Regime Behavior in the Sea Surface Temperature-Cloud Radiative Forcing Relationships over the Pacific Cold Tongue Region 被引量:1
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作者 WU Chun-Qiang ZHOU Tian-Jun De-Zheng SUN 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2010年第5期271-276,共6页
Previous analyses on the estimates of water vapor and cloud-related feedbacks in the tropics usually use observations over the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) period (1985-89). To examine the sample depen... Previous analyses on the estimates of water vapor and cloud-related feedbacks in the tropics usually use observations over the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) period (1985-89). To examine the sample dependence of previous estimates, the authors extend the analysis to two additional periods: 1990-94 and 1995-99. The results confirm our hypothesis, i.e., the values of the feedbacks depend on the period of data coverage. The differences in the feedbacks from cloud radiative forcings (CRFs) estimated from the three periods are particularly significant. Two possible causes for these differences are proposed. First, a regime behavior in the CRFs-Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) rela- tionship over the cold tongue region is revealed: when SSTA is below -0.5℃, the CRF anomalies are insensitive to the SSTA; when the SSTA is between -0.5℃ and 2.0℃, the CRF anomalies are positively correlated with the SSTA; however, when the SSTA exceeds 2.0℃, the CRF anomalies decrease with the SSTA. This regime behavior is due to the regime behavior of cirrostratus and deep convective clouds. Second, the CRFs-SSTA relationship is regulated by remote forcings. Warming of the far eastern equatorial Pacific would reduce the water vapor convergence over the central Pacific by weakening the trade wind over the southeastern Pacific, thereby reducing the feeding of moisture to the convective flow. The results suggest that CRFs-SSTA relationships during ENSO events are nonlinear and strongly depend on the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the SSTA. 展开更多
关键词 cloud radiative feedback cloud-SST regime ENSO nonlinearity
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Dimethylsulfide and Coral Bleaching: Links to Solar Radiation, Low Level Cloud and the Regulation of Seawater Temperatures and Climate in the Great Barrier Reef 被引量:1
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作者 Graham Jones Mark Curran +1 位作者 Hilton Swan Elisabeth Deschaseaux 《American Journal of Climate Change》 2017年第2期328-359,共32页
Coral reefs produce atmospheric dimethylsulfide (DMSa) which oxidises to non-sea-salt (nss) sulfate aerosols, precursors of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and low level cloud (LLC), reducing solar radiation and regul... Coral reefs produce atmospheric dimethylsulfide (DMSa) which oxidises to non-sea-salt (nss) sulfate aerosols, precursors of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and low level cloud (LLC), reducing solar radiation and regulating sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here we report measurements of solar radiation, SST, LLC, DMS flux, , and rainfall before, during and after a major coral bleaching event at Magnetic Island in the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Measurements are compared with those made at the nearby fringing reef of Or-pheus Island where coral bleaching did not occur. Extreme solar radiation levels occurred from November to late January and could have reflected cloud radiative effects that increased downwelling of solar radiation. High levels of LLC often coincided with high periodic fluxes of DMS from the unbleached coral reef at Orpheus Island (e.g. 14 - 20 μmol·m-2·d-1), in direct contrast to the very low fluxes of DMS that were emitted from the bleached, human-impacted Magnetic Island fringing reef (nd-0.8 μmol·m-2·d-1) when SSTs were >30°C. Continuous SSTs measurements at the Magnetic Island reef revealed various heating and cooling periods, interspersed with stable SSTs. Cooling periods (negative climate feedback) ranged from -1°C to -3°C (7 day mean -1.6°C), and often seemed to occur during low tides, periodic pulses of DMS flux and LLC, keeping SSTs °C. In contrast warming periods of +1°C to +3°C (positive climate feedback, 7 day mean +1.52°C), seemed to occur during increasing tides, decreasing DMS flux and low to medium levels of LLC which increased solar radiation and caused SSTs over 30°C and corals to bleach. Alternation between these two states or types of feedback is indicated in this research and may be a function of enhanced scattering of solar radiation from nss-sulfate aerosols that originate from oxidation of DMSa produced from the coral reefs in the GBR. The net radiative forcing from clouds can be as high as four times as large as the radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 levels in the atmosphere, which needs to be taken into account when ascribing coral bleaching events in the GBR solely to GHG warming. Further studies are needed to more critically assess the importance of this GBR coral reef-cloud feedback to the climate of northern Australia and the western Pacific, where the greatest biomass of coral reefs occurs. 展开更多
关键词 DIMETHYLSULFIDE Low Level cloud CLIMATE feedback CORAL BLEACHING
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融合深度学习与云计算的智能调度系统优化策略
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作者 宿洪智 郑少明 +2 位作者 董鹏 刘丹 牟澎涛 《自动化技术与应用》 2026年第4期140-145,共6页
随着云计算与深度学习技术的快速发展,传统智能调度系统在动态环境适应性、资源利用率及调度效率等方面的不足日益凸显。针对上述问题,提出了一种融合深度学习与云计算的智能调度系统性能优化策略。首先,构建了智能调度系统模型,系统性... 随着云计算与深度学习技术的快速发展,传统智能调度系统在动态环境适应性、资源利用率及调度效率等方面的不足日益凸显。针对上述问题,提出了一种融合深度学习与云计算的智能调度系统性能优化策略。首先,构建了智能调度系统模型,系统性分析了深度学习技术在云计算环境中的集成方式;其次,以资源管理与调度决策优化为核心,设计并实现了一种多级反馈队列调度算法,通过动态优先级调整与老化机制提升系统公平性与响应能力;在此基础上,引入深度确定性策略梯度算法对调度策略进行进一步优化,以增强系统在复杂动态负载条件下的自适应性与决策精度。通过仿真实验,将所提方法与先来先服务、短作业优先及传统多级反馈队列等调度策略进行对比分析。结果表明,基于深度学习优化的多级反馈队列调度策略在响应时间、系统吞吐量、CPU利用率及进程等待时间等关键性能指标上均表现出显著优势。研究结果验证了深度学习与云计算融合在智能调度系统优化中的有效性与可行性,为相关领域的工程应用与后续研究提供了有价值的参考。 展开更多
关键词 深度学习 云计算 智能调度系统 性能优化 多级反馈队列调度算法 策略梯度 自适应性
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基于订单的空天防御杀伤链作战效能评估
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作者 姜龙飞 赵建兵 《现代防御技术》 北大核心 2025年第5期70-79,共10页
为适应信息化智能化空天防御体系作战效能生成模式和评估手段的变化,采用军事理论与技术实践融合赋能的方式,在分析基于订单的空天防御杀伤链运行机制的基础上,分别研究探索了基于系统论正负反馈机制和基于作战云的复杂网络分析两种杀... 为适应信息化智能化空天防御体系作战效能生成模式和评估手段的变化,采用军事理论与技术实践融合赋能的方式,在分析基于订单的空天防御杀伤链运行机制的基础上,分别研究探索了基于系统论正负反馈机制和基于作战云的复杂网络分析两种杀伤链作战效能评估方法,用于量化评估未来空天防御作战中基于订单的杀伤链作战效能,描述空天防御作战中体系内部不同作战域作战要素间的复杂关联关系和动态耦合机制,进而为提升空天防御体系的整体作战效能提供数据支撑和理论借鉴。以空天防御杀伤链为例,验证了2种作战效能评估方法的可行性和有效性。 展开更多
关键词 空天防御 效能评估 杀伤链 订单 作战云 正负反馈
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基于气候模式输出的不同高度云量日变化分析
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作者 安雅涵 刘大锋 +1 位作者 蒋知烨 尹君 《气象科学》 2025年第6期903-915,共13页
云层的高度及其日变化对地球能量平衡和气候系统有着重要作用。然而,目前关于不同高度云量日变化特征的研究仍相对不足。本研究利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)中不同模式输出数... 云层的高度及其日变化对地球能量平衡和气候系统有着重要作用。然而,目前关于不同高度云量日变化特征的研究仍相对不足。本研究利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)中不同模式输出数据与国际卫星云气候计划(International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project,ISCCP)模拟器数据,探讨了总云量的对比关系,并通过云反馈模式比较计划(CFMIP)重点分析了不同高度云量的日变化。结果显示各模式与ISCCP模拟器数据在总云量的绝对值上存在显著差异,但时间序列分析显示模式输出与ISCCP模拟器数据表现出较高的相关性,特别是在低纬度地区。相比之下,高纬度地区的相关性稍显降低。表明,尽管模式输出的云量绝对值与模拟的卫星观测数据不能直接比较,但其反映的总云量变化趋势在时间尺度上仍具有重要的参考价值。此外,研究还揭示了低云和高云在日变化上显著的昼夜周期性,而低云和高云一般有降温和增温的显著差异。这些发现强调了准确模拟不同高度云层的日变化在气候预测中的重要性,是进一步提高气候模式准确性的关键。 展开更多
关键词 云量日变化 CMIP6模式 ISCCP模拟器 云反馈模式比较计划(CFMIP)
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基于目标检测的疲劳驾驶监评系统设计 被引量:1
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作者 代世佳 陈兴文 《山西电子技术》 2025年第2期26-28,共3页
针对营运驾驶员易出现疲劳驾驶而造成危险,利用摄像头提取驾驶员面部特征;通过Percentage of Eyelid Closure Time(Perclos)模型对驾驶员进行疲劳检测;出现疲劳驾驶后,利用云边协同架构将异常信息发送给驾驶员和管理员。系统利用近红外... 针对营运驾驶员易出现疲劳驾驶而造成危险,利用摄像头提取驾驶员面部特征;通过Percentage of Eyelid Closure Time(Perclos)模型对驾驶员进行疲劳检测;出现疲劳驾驶后,利用云边协同架构将异常信息发送给驾驶员和管理员。系统利用近红外摄像头改善了传统疲劳检测方法在光线复杂的环境下检测效果差的问题,并增加了驾驶员分析评价功能,对驾驶员的异常情况进行评价反馈。 展开更多
关键词 疲劳驾驶 目标检测 云边协同 评价反馈
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基于反馈的迭代采样高噪声点云去噪框架
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作者 王昶畅 江坤 +2 位作者 姜凯 张鹏 苏智勇 《图学学报》 北大核心 2025年第3期614-624,共11页
在三维点云采集过程中,由于测量异常、边缘散射和被测物体材质等因素的影响,点云数据容易受到噪声的干扰。然而,目前的深度点云去噪算法在高噪声条件下表现较差,且易导致锐利特征的平滑。针对这一问题,提出了一种基于反馈的迭代采样高... 在三维点云采集过程中,由于测量异常、边缘散射和被测物体材质等因素的影响,点云数据容易受到噪声的干扰。然而,目前的深度点云去噪算法在高噪声条件下表现较差,且易导致锐利特征的平滑。针对这一问题,提出了一种基于反馈的迭代采样高噪声点云去噪框架,旨在提升现有监督去噪算法在高噪声条件下的表现。首先,用现有的监督去噪网络对噪声点云进行初步去噪,得到预去噪点云;然后,将原始噪声点云和预去噪点云一起输入采样融合模块,得到包含几何细节和边缘特征的融合点云;再次,反馈感知细化网络在预去噪点云的反馈引导下对融合点云进行去噪,得到本轮迭代的去噪结果;最后,通过将当前去噪结果作为下一轮的反馈信息以及采样融合模块的输入,进行多次迭代,逐步去噪,得到最终的去噪结果。实验结果表明,在高噪声条件下,该框架提升了现有监督式点云去噪算法的性能,表现出了较好的去噪效果和特征保持能力。 展开更多
关键词 点云去噪 点云采样 高噪声 反馈机制 迭代
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Causes of Differences in the Tropical Pacific SST Warming Pattern Projected by CMIP6 Models
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作者 Jun YING Matthew COLLINS +4 位作者 Robin CHADWICK Shangfeng CHEN Xiaoming HU Tao LIAN Shangmin LONG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2025年第6期1077-1091,共15页
The inter-model difference in the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern is a big stumbling block for reliable projections of global climate change. Here by conducting an inter-model Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) a... The inter-model difference in the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern is a big stumbling block for reliable projections of global climate change. Here by conducting an inter-model Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analysis as well as an ocean mixed-layer heat budget, we find that the first two modes of inter-model difference in the SST warming pattern projected by 30 CMIP6 models, explaining more than three-quarters of the total inter-model variance, are both tied to different cloud–radiation feedbacks. The EOF1 mode that captures the different magnitudes of El Ni?o-like warming as well as the largest inter-model variance in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, is likely driven by highly diverse cloud–radiation feedbacks in the east and, to a lesser extent, by differing changes in the oceanic vertical temperature gradient. The EOF2 mode that mainly represents the different magnitudes of SST warming in the western equatorial Pacific, is associated with differing levels of negative cloud–radiation feedback over the central equatorial Pacific through a dynamic air–sea coupled process involving both the Bjerknes feedback and the wind–evaporation–SST feedback.Considering in isolation the robust common model bias of a weak negative cloud–radiation feedback over the central equatorial Pacific, the projected SST warming in the western equatorial Pacific is likely to be smaller than the multi-model ensemble mean, thereby presenting a more weakeened zonal SST gradient than expected, implying the potential for more severe climate extremes under global warming. 展开更多
关键词 SST warming pattern inter-model difference cloud–radiation feedback
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基于大数据分析的教师教育云平台语音互动功能设计
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作者 任玲 《电声技术》 2025年第4期82-85,共4页
教师教育云平台是实现教育资源共享和提升教师专业发展水平的工具。平台集成大数据、人工智能和语音互动技术,为教师提供远程学习和教学支持,在提高教学质量的同时满足不同学习者的需求。基于大数据分析进行教师教育云平台语音互动功能... 教师教育云平台是实现教育资源共享和提升教师专业发展水平的工具。平台集成大数据、人工智能和语音互动技术,为教师提供远程学习和教学支持,在提高教学质量的同时满足不同学习者的需求。基于大数据分析进行教师教育云平台语音互动功能设计,优化语音和行为数据基础,精益语音转文本的识别技术,改进音频质量优化技术,设计个性化语言反馈系统。实验结果表明,平台在语音识别精度、音频清晰度及反馈满意度等方面表现优秀,可为未来教育技术的发展提供创新思路。 展开更多
关键词 教师教育云平台 大数据分析 语音互动 个性化反馈 音频优化
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大气CO_2浓度非均匀动态分布条件下的气候模拟 被引量:6
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作者 杨成荫 王汉杰 +1 位作者 韩士杰 赵苏璇 《地球物理学报》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2012年第9期2809-2825,共17页
利用现有大气本底站的大气CO2浓度观测信息,综合考虑不同经济区划与土地覆盖类型对应的CO2浓度差异及其季节变化规律,构建模式区域内以月为单位的网格化大气CO2浓度非均匀动态分布数据模型.由此数据模型驱动RegCM4-CLM3.5区域气候模式运... 利用现有大气本底站的大气CO2浓度观测信息,综合考虑不同经济区划与土地覆盖类型对应的CO2浓度差异及其季节变化规律,构建模式区域内以月为单位的网格化大气CO2浓度非均匀动态分布数据模型.由此数据模型驱动RegCM4-CLM3.5区域气候模式运行,对东亚区2000年3月—2009年2月之间的气候变化特征进行了模拟,进而对大气CO2浓度非均匀动态分布可能引起的区域气候效应进行了初步研究.结果表明:目前气候模式中CO2浓度的常态均匀分布假设可能将温室效应夸大了10%左右.对大气CO2浓度非均匀动态分布影响气温变化的可能机制进行研究表明:CO2的自身效应(改变大气透射率)并不是导致Exp2试验温度降低的主要原因.大气CO2浓度的变化影响了大气与植物胞间CO2分压差,陆地植被通过改变气孔阻力适应这种变化,气孔阻力的变化直接影响到植物与大气间水分的交换,这种作用一方面通过蒸发冷却改变环境温度,另一方面,蒸发水分改变了近地面层湿度,进而水汽扩散到空中影响低云的分布.冬季,植物处于非生长季,对大气CO2浓度变化响应微弱,湿度和低云变化不明显;夏季,植物生长旺盛,由CO2生理学强迫激发的云反馈效应强烈,其效果是使中低云趋于增加,进而减弱了到达对流层低层的太阳短波辐射,造成温室效应减弱. 展开更多
关键词 大气CO2浓度 非均匀动态分布 温室效应 云反馈 CO2生理学强迫
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气候模式中云辐射反馈过程机理的评述 被引量:41
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作者 汪方 丁一汇 《地球科学进展》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2005年第2期207-215,共9页
云对地气系统的辐射收支具有十分重要的作用,云辐射参数化是目前气候模式中不确定性的主要来源。云可以通过多种途径对辐射产生影响,形成不同符号、不同量值的反馈机制。研究表明,模式气候对不同的云辐射参数化方案十分敏感。预报云水... 云对地气系统的辐射收支具有十分重要的作用,云辐射参数化是目前气候模式中不确定性的主要来源。云可以通过多种途径对辐射产生影响,形成不同符号、不同量值的反馈机制。研究表明,模式气候对不同的云辐射参数化方案十分敏感。预报云水含量方案的引入,改进了对云辐射过程的模拟,但与观测资料相比仍有差距。一般说来,模式中引入云水的相变和相互作用的云粒子大小产生负反馈,而光学厚度和云量产生的是正反馈。云辐射反馈的净作用其大小和符号因模式而异。云辐射与大尺度天气气候背景之间有着紧密的联系,尤其是海温对辐射平衡有显著影响。最后总结了当前云辐射研究中存在的主要问题,并提出了改进的途径。 展开更多
关键词 气候模式 云辐射反馈 参数化
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基于云模型与贝叶斯反馈的网络安全等级评估方法 被引量:11
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作者 朱丹 谢晓尧 +1 位作者 徐洋 夏梦婷 《山东大学学报(理学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2018年第1期53-62,共10页
鉴于测评人员对信息系统等级保护测评中网络安全评估的测评指标理解的局限性、评判的模糊性以及量化打分中判定区间的不确定性,将云模型与贝叶斯反馈算法相结合,采用云模型理论来处理评估结果的模糊性和随机性。由于传统的一维逆向云算... 鉴于测评人员对信息系统等级保护测评中网络安全评估的测评指标理解的局限性、评判的模糊性以及量化打分中判定区间的不确定性,将云模型与贝叶斯反馈算法相结合,采用云模型理论来处理评估结果的模糊性和随机性。由于传统的一维逆向云算法出现超熵为虚数的情况,因此,使用无确定度逆向云算法来避免这种情况的发生。通过建立贝叶斯反馈云模型,对给出的测评结果进行检验和修正,使评估结果更加客观,准确。根据已修正网络安全整体评估云的期望和熵,给出合理的安全等级判定区间,作为实际测评中等级评估的依据。实例验证表明,该评估方法可以有效地修正测评人员评估结果之间的差异,实现合理的判定划分,给出客观、准确的等级评估结果。 展开更多
关键词 网络安全等级测评 评判模糊性 云模型 逆向云算法 贝叶斯反馈
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耦合模式热带太平洋云—气候反馈模拟误差评估 被引量:5
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作者 李志强 俞永强 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2011年第3期457-472,共16页
云—气候反馈是热带海气相互作用的重要过程,同时也是气候模拟的难点。本文利用IPCCAR4提供的耦合模式20世纪模拟试验结果和观测资料,通过滤波和经验正交展开(EOF)的方法将热带太平洋海表温度的年际变化和年代际变化信号分别提取出来,... 云—气候反馈是热带海气相互作用的重要过程,同时也是气候模拟的难点。本文利用IPCCAR4提供的耦合模式20世纪模拟试验结果和观测资料,通过滤波和经验正交展开(EOF)的方法将热带太平洋海表温度的年际变化和年代际变化信号分别提取出来,然后再分别计算观测和模式在年际和年代际时间尺度上云—辐射和热通量反馈特征,发现在上述两个时间尺度上,耦合模式模拟的云—辐射和热通量的反馈都要比观测和再分析资料的偏弱。反馈偏弱的可能原因是模式中热带大气对流和云对海表温度变化的敏感性比真实大气要偏弱。值得注意的是,尽管耦合模式热带太平洋年代际热力反馈偏弱,但是耦合模式模拟的热带太平洋南北纬10°之间海表温度的年代际增温趋势与观测相当。进一步分析表明,只用年代际热力反馈来解释热带太平洋的气候变化是不够的,还必须考虑动力反馈对于海表温度变化的调节作用。 展开更多
关键词 年代际变化 云—气候反馈 耦合模式 热通量
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地球失控增暖可能性的数值模拟 被引量:9
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作者 朱伟军 钱明 张虹娇 《气象与减灾研究》 2006年第1期22-28,共7页
通过改变太阳常数引进强外辐射强迫的变化,利用NCAR气候系统模式CSM1.4,就气候系统对强外辐射强迫下的失控增暖效应进行了初步研究。结果表明:气候对于太阳常数分别增加2.5%、10%与增加25%的响应有所不同,即对于较小的强迫,气候系统的... 通过改变太阳常数引进强外辐射强迫的变化,利用NCAR气候系统模式CSM1.4,就气候系统对强外辐射强迫下的失控增暖效应进行了初步研究。结果表明:气候对于太阳常数分别增加2.5%、10%与增加25%的响应有所不同,即对于较小的强迫,气候系统的响应是线性的;而对于较大的强迫,响应很可能是非线性的。对于NCAR模式,如果强迫足够大,气候系统将会经历失控增暖。失控增暖的主要趋势并不是最初设想的正的水汽反馈增暖,至少在模式中,不只是“失控的温室效应”增暖,还有“失控的云反馈”增暖。 展开更多
关键词 太阳常数 失控增暖 数值实验 云反馈增暖
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