Consensus and disagreements between China and the U.S. are the key factors influencing the direction that global climate negotiation is heading for. By taking into account the uncertainties of temperature increment an...Consensus and disagreements between China and the U.S. are the key factors influencing the direction that global climate negotiation is heading for. By taking into account the uncertainties of temperature increment and its impact on GDP growth, together with the positive, negative and spillover effects of climate change investment on utility, a strategic simulation model including China and the U.S. is developed. Based on utility and game theory, a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The results show that the first-mover disadvantage exists in the game, and the scale of each country＇s climate change investment under non-cooperative win-win basis for global cooperation, the technology transfer and funding to China scenario is too small to ensure the 2℃ simulation results also indicate that it target. To guarantee the stability and makes sense to assist and compensate展开更多
Based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, the UNFCCC has different requirements on national GHG inventories submitted by Annex I and non-Annex I parties. Since 2007, the transparency of mit...Based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, the UNFCCC has different requirements on national GHG inventories submitted by Annex I and non-Annex I parties. Since 2007, the transparency of mitigation actions by developing countries, the submission frequency of national communications cored on national inventory and the relevant international consultation and analysis have become the key issues in climate negotiations. Relevant responsibilities of developing countries showed an increasing trend. Through the analysis of these different requirements, particularly on technical review system of national inventories on developed countries and of the current situation of China's inventory development, the challenges faced by China are identified and the corresponding countermeasures are also put forward, including improving institutional arrangements and statistic system, building country-specific and comprehensive database and preparing for time-series inventory development.展开更多
In recent years,with the soaring development of its national strength,China has made the world hear its voice and gained strength in negotiations.However,China is still confronting huge pressure placed by the dominant...In recent years,with the soaring development of its national strength,China has made the world hear its voice and gained strength in negotiations.However,China is still confronting huge pressure placed by the dominant western countries.During the Durban Conference,three main groups,namely the EU(Europe Union),the Umbrella Group,and the Group of 77 and China,played important roles,among which China is outstanding but is bearing a huge corresponding pressure on carbon emission reduction.China must continue to reinforce the coordination among those emerging developing countries and strive for the status and negotiation rights it deserves.Since energy conservation and emissions reduction is a key component of China's strategy for sustainable development,China should consider the low-carbon economy as an opportunity for development,strongly promote the development of clean energy technology and occupy the international strategic highland of the world economy.展开更多
A novel two-level hierarchical graph model is developed to analyze international climate change negotiations with hierarchical structures:the negotiations take place between two nations and between each nation and its...A novel two-level hierarchical graph model is developed to analyze international climate change negotiations with hierarchical structures:the negotiations take place between two nations and between each nation and its provincial governments.The two national government are two decision makers at the top level.Within each nation,the two provincial governments negotiate with the national government at the lower level.The theoretical structure of this novel model,including decision makers,options,moves,and preference relations,are developed.The interrelationship between the stabilities in the two-level hierarchical graph model and the stabilities in local models are investigated by theorems.These theorems can be utilized to calculate complete stabilities in the two-level hierarchical graph model when the stabilities in local graph models are known.The international climate change negotiations as the illustrative example is then investigated in detail.The extra equilibrium,uniquely obtained by this novel methodology,suggests that opposition may still be from one provincial government when the national government does not sign the international climate agreement and implements existing environmental laws.Compared with other approaches,this novel methodology is an effective and flexible tool in analyzing hierarchical conflicts at two levels by providing decision makers with strategic resolutions with broader vision.展开更多
Actors purposefully frame up their issues in multilateral negotiations to reach their desired goals.How were the issues related to mitigation framed up during the two decades of climate negotiations that yielded the P...Actors purposefully frame up their issues in multilateral negotiations to reach their desired goals.How were the issues related to mitigation framed up during the two decades of climate negotiations that yielded the Paris Agreement,what was the mechanism for the evolution of the frames and why did only certain crucially contested frames find traction?In these quests,this work conducts a simultaneous content and frame analysis by applying the framing theory and maps the historic evolution pathways of the related issues.The qualitative analysis identifies a process of frame generation through the contested rhetoric framing by the actors,in line with their primary logics which were shaped by their mental schemata.It finds that the act of framing was the sine-qua-non for the sustenance and traction of the issues,but the fates of the crucially contested frames were determined by the powerful actors.Applying the concept of framing allows the systematic visualization of the negotiation process related to Greenhouse Gas mitigation at the annual conferences of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and helps explain how and why certain outcomes appeared.展开更多
This paper is to provide quantitative data on some critical issues in anticipation of the forthcoming international negotiations in Denmark on the control of atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations.Instead of letting only a ...This paper is to provide quantitative data on some critical issues in anticipation of the forthcoming international negotiations in Denmark on the control of atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations.Instead of letting only a small number of countries dominate a few controversial dialogues about emissions reductions,a comprehensive global system must be established based on emissions allowances for different countries,to realize the long-term goal of controlling global atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations.That a system rooted in"cumulative emissions per capita,"the best conception of the"common but differentiated responsibilities"principle affirmed by the Kyoto Protocol according to fundamental standards of fairness and justice,was demonstrated.Based on calculations of various countries'cumulative emissions per capita,estimates of their cumulative emissions from 1900 to 2005,and their annual emissions allowances into the future(2006―2050),a 470 ppmv atmospheric CO_(2)concentration target was set.According to the following four objective indicators―total emissions allowance from 1900 to 2050,actual emissions from 1900 to 2005,emissions levels in 2005,and the average growth rate of emissions from 1996 to 2005―all countries and regions whose population was more than 300000 in 2005 were divided into four main groups:countries with emissions deficits,countries and regions needing to reduce their gross emissions,countries and regions needing to reduce their emissions growth rates,and countries that can maintain the current emissions growth rates.Based on this proposal,most G8 countries by 2005 had already expended their 2050 emissions allowances.The accu-mulated financial value based on emissions has reached more than 5.5 trillion US dollars(20 dollars per ton of CO_(2)).Even if these countries could achieve their ambitious emissions reduction targets in the future,their per capita emissions from 2006 to 2050 would still be much higher than those of developing countries;under such circumstance,these future emissions would create more than 6.3 trillion US dollars in emissions deficits.Because of their low cumulative emissions per capita,most developing countries fall within one of the latter two groups,which means that they have leeway for making emissions decisions in the future.Although China accounts for more than 30%of the total global emissions allowance from 2006 to 2050,its total emissions can be controlled within that allow-ance by no other way than reducing its future emissions growth rates.In the end,nine key issues related to international climate negotiations were briefly addressed.展开更多
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation(No.71273153)the National Key Technology R&D Program(No.2012BAC20B04)
文摘Consensus and disagreements between China and the U.S. are the key factors influencing the direction that global climate negotiation is heading for. By taking into account the uncertainties of temperature increment and its impact on GDP growth, together with the positive, negative and spillover effects of climate change investment on utility, a strategic simulation model including China and the U.S. is developed. Based on utility and game theory, a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The results show that the first-mover disadvantage exists in the game, and the scale of each country＇s climate change investment under non-cooperative win-win basis for global cooperation, the technology transfer and funding to China scenario is too small to ensure the 2℃ simulation results also indicate that it target. To guarantee the stability and makes sense to assist and compensate
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Infrastructure Program (No.2012BAC20B02)
文摘Based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, the UNFCCC has different requirements on national GHG inventories submitted by Annex I and non-Annex I parties. Since 2007, the transparency of mitigation actions by developing countries, the submission frequency of national communications cored on national inventory and the relevant international consultation and analysis have become the key issues in climate negotiations. Relevant responsibilities of developing countries showed an increasing trend. Through the analysis of these different requirements, particularly on technical review system of national inventories on developed countries and of the current situation of China's inventory development, the challenges faced by China are identified and the corresponding countermeasures are also put forward, including improving institutional arrangements and statistic system, building country-specific and comprehensive database and preparing for time-series inventory development.
文摘In recent years,with the soaring development of its national strength,China has made the world hear its voice and gained strength in negotiations.However,China is still confronting huge pressure placed by the dominant western countries.During the Durban Conference,three main groups,namely the EU(Europe Union),the Umbrella Group,and the Group of 77 and China,played important roles,among which China is outstanding but is bearing a huge corresponding pressure on carbon emission reduction.China must continue to reinforce the coordination among those emerging developing countries and strive for the status and negotiation rights it deserves.Since energy conservation and emissions reduction is a key component of China's strategy for sustainable development,China should consider the low-carbon economy as an opportunity for development,strongly promote the development of clean energy technology and occupy the international strategic highland of the world economy.
基金The authors would like to thank the anonymous referees for carefully reading this paper and having provided meaningful suggestions which helped improve the quality of paper.This paper should be dedicated to Dr.Ye Chen who was a coauthor and passed away in June,2019.This research was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71601096,China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2019M661838,the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities(China)under Grant No.NS2020061,and the Natural Science Young Scholar Foundation of Jiangsu,China,under Grant No.BK20160809.
文摘A novel two-level hierarchical graph model is developed to analyze international climate change negotiations with hierarchical structures:the negotiations take place between two nations and between each nation and its provincial governments.The two national government are two decision makers at the top level.Within each nation,the two provincial governments negotiate with the national government at the lower level.The theoretical structure of this novel model,including decision makers,options,moves,and preference relations,are developed.The interrelationship between the stabilities in the two-level hierarchical graph model and the stabilities in local models are investigated by theorems.These theorems can be utilized to calculate complete stabilities in the two-level hierarchical graph model when the stabilities in local graph models are known.The international climate change negotiations as the illustrative example is then investigated in detail.The extra equilibrium,uniquely obtained by this novel methodology,suggests that opposition may still be from one provincial government when the national government does not sign the international climate agreement and implements existing environmental laws.Compared with other approaches,this novel methodology is an effective and flexible tool in analyzing hierarchical conflicts at two levels by providing decision makers with strategic resolutions with broader vision.
文摘Actors purposefully frame up their issues in multilateral negotiations to reach their desired goals.How were the issues related to mitigation framed up during the two decades of climate negotiations that yielded the Paris Agreement,what was the mechanism for the evolution of the frames and why did only certain crucially contested frames find traction?In these quests,this work conducts a simultaneous content and frame analysis by applying the framing theory and maps the historic evolution pathways of the related issues.The qualitative analysis identifies a process of frame generation through the contested rhetoric framing by the actors,in line with their primary logics which were shaped by their mental schemata.It finds that the act of framing was the sine-qua-non for the sustenance and traction of the issues,but the fates of the crucially contested frames were determined by the powerful actors.Applying the concept of framing allows the systematic visualization of the negotiation process related to Greenhouse Gas mitigation at the annual conferences of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and helps explain how and why certain outcomes appeared.
基金Supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences Knowledge Innovation Program(Grant No.KZCX-YW-Q1-10)
文摘This paper is to provide quantitative data on some critical issues in anticipation of the forthcoming international negotiations in Denmark on the control of atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations.Instead of letting only a small number of countries dominate a few controversial dialogues about emissions reductions,a comprehensive global system must be established based on emissions allowances for different countries,to realize the long-term goal of controlling global atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations.That a system rooted in"cumulative emissions per capita,"the best conception of the"common but differentiated responsibilities"principle affirmed by the Kyoto Protocol according to fundamental standards of fairness and justice,was demonstrated.Based on calculations of various countries'cumulative emissions per capita,estimates of their cumulative emissions from 1900 to 2005,and their annual emissions allowances into the future(2006―2050),a 470 ppmv atmospheric CO_(2)concentration target was set.According to the following four objective indicators―total emissions allowance from 1900 to 2050,actual emissions from 1900 to 2005,emissions levels in 2005,and the average growth rate of emissions from 1996 to 2005―all countries and regions whose population was more than 300000 in 2005 were divided into four main groups:countries with emissions deficits,countries and regions needing to reduce their gross emissions,countries and regions needing to reduce their emissions growth rates,and countries that can maintain the current emissions growth rates.Based on this proposal,most G8 countries by 2005 had already expended their 2050 emissions allowances.The accu-mulated financial value based on emissions has reached more than 5.5 trillion US dollars(20 dollars per ton of CO_(2)).Even if these countries could achieve their ambitious emissions reduction targets in the future,their per capita emissions from 2006 to 2050 would still be much higher than those of developing countries;under such circumstance,these future emissions would create more than 6.3 trillion US dollars in emissions deficits.Because of their low cumulative emissions per capita,most developing countries fall within one of the latter two groups,which means that they have leeway for making emissions decisions in the future.Although China accounts for more than 30%of the total global emissions allowance from 2006 to 2050,its total emissions can be controlled within that allow-ance by no other way than reducing its future emissions growth rates.In the end,nine key issues related to international climate negotiations were briefly addressed.
