Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this st...Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.展开更多
On the basis of more than 200-year control run, the performance of the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS-ESM-C） in simulating the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） cycle is evalu- ated, i...On the basis of more than 200-year control run, the performance of the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS-ESM-C） in simulating the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） cycle is evalu- ated, including the onset, development and decay of the ENSO. It is shown that, the model can reasonably simulate the annual cycle and interannual variability of sea surface temperature （SST） in the tropical Pacif- ic, as well as the seasonal phase-locking of the ENSO. The model also captures two prerequisites for the E1 Nino onset, i.e., a westerly anomaly and a warm SST anomaly in the equatorial western Pacific. Owing to too strong forcing from an extratropical meridional wind, however, the westerly anomaly in this region is largely overestimated. Moreover, the simulated thermocline is much shallower with a weaker slope. As a result, the warm SST anomaly from the western Pacific propagates eastward more quickly, leading to a faster develop- ment of an E1 Nino. During the decay stage, owing to a stronger E1Nino in the model, the secondary Gill-type response of the tropical atmosphere to the eastern Pacific warming is much stronger, thereby resulting in a persistent easterly anomaly in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, a cold anomaly in the warm pool appears as a result of a lifted thermocline via Ekman pumping. Finally, an E1 Nino decays into a La Nina through their interactions. In addition, the shorter period and larger amplitude of the ENSO in the model can be attribut- ed to a shallower thermocline in the equatorial Pacific, which speeds up the zonal redistribution of a heat content in the upper ocean.展开更多
A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature responses t...A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature responses to specified external forcing agents in a millennium-scale transient climate simulation with the fast version of LASG IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-gl） developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （LASG/IAP）. The model presents a reasonable performance in comparison with reconstructions of surface temperature. Differentiated from significant changes in the 20th century at the global scale, changes during the natural-forcing-dominant period are mainly manifested in the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonally, modeled significant changes are more pronounced during the wintertime at higher latitudes. This may be a manifestation of polar amplification associated with sea-ice-temperature positive feedback. The climate responses to total external forcings can explain about half of the climate variance during the whole millennium period, especially at decadal timescales. Surface temperature in the Antarctic shows heterogeneous and insignificant changes during the preindustrial period and the climate response to external forcings is undetectable due to the strong internal variability. The model response to specified external forcings is modulated by cloud radiative forcing （CRF）. The CRF acts against the fluctuations of external forcings. Effects of clouds are manifested in shortwave radiation by changes in cloud water during the natural-forcing-dominant period, but mainly in longwave radiation by a decrease in cloud amount in the ant hropogenic- forcing-dominant period.展开更多
This paper describes the historical simulations produced by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)climate system model(CAMS-CSM),which are contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Pro...This paper describes the historical simulations produced by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)climate system model(CAMS-CSM),which are contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).The model description,experiment design and model outputs are presented.Three members’historical experiments are conducted by CAMS-CSM,with two members starting from different initial conditions,and one excluding the stratospheric aerosol to identify the effect of volcanic eruptions.The outputs of the historical experiments are also validated using observational data.It is found that the model can reproduce the climatological mean states and seasonal cycle of the major climate system quantities,including the surface air temperature,precipitation,and the equatorial thermocline.The long-term trend of air temperature and precipitation is also reasonably captured by CAMS-CSM.There are still some biases in the model that need further improvement.This paper can help the users to better understand the performance and the datasets of CAMS-CSM.展开更多
The climate system models from Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main i...The climate system models from Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main information on the experiments including the experiment purpose, design, and the external forcings. The transient climate responses to the CO2 concentration increase at 1% per year are presented in the simulation of the two models. The BCC_CSM1.1-M result is closer to the CMIP5 multiple models ensemble. The two models perform well in simulating the historical evolution of the surface air temperature, globally and averaged for China. Both models overestimate the global warming and underestimate the warming over China in the 20th century. With higher horizontal resolution, the BCC_CSM1.1-M has a better capability in reproducing the annual evolution of surface air temperature over China.展开更多
In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly explo...In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.展开更多
This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM） and its four component models （atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice）. Two recent versions ...This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM） and its four component models （atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice）. Two recent versions are described： BCC_CSMI.1 with coarse resolution （approximately 2.8125°× 2.8125°） and BCC_CSMI.I（m） with moderate resolution （approximately 1.125°×1.125°）. Both versions are fully cou- pled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC_CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five （CMIP5） in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （1PCC） Fifth Assessment Report （AR5）. These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMI.1 and BCC_CSMI.I（m） are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC_CSMI.1 and BCC_CSMI.I（m） perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses in- dicate that the higher resolution in BCC CSMI.I（m） improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC_CSMI.1, particularly on regional scales.展开更多
A new coupled climate system model(CSM) has been developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS) by employing several state-of-the-art component models. The coupled CAMS-CSM consists of the modified ...A new coupled climate system model(CSM) has been developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS) by employing several state-of-the-art component models. The coupled CAMS-CSM consists of the modified atmospheric model [ECmwf-HAMburg(ECHAM5)], ocean model [Modular Ocean Model(MOM4)], sea ice model [Sea Ice Simulator(SIS)], and land surface model [Common Land Model(CoLM)]. A detailed model description is presented and both the pre-industrial and "historical" simulations are preliminarily evaluated in this study.The model can reproduce the climatological mean states and seasonal cycles of the major climate system quantities,including the sea surface temperature, precipitation, sea ice extent, and the equatorial thermocline. The major climate variability modes are also reasonably captured by the CAMS-CSM, such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO), El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO), East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).The model shows a promising ability to simulate the EASM variability and the ENSO–EASM relationship. Some biases still exist, such as the false double-intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ) in the annual mean precipitation field,the overestimated ENSO amplitude, and the weakened Bjerknes feedback associated with ENSO; and thus the CAMS-CSM needs further improvements.展开更多
The development of coupled earth/climate system models in China over the past 20 years is reviewed, including a comparison with other international models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercom- parison Proje...The development of coupled earth/climate system models in China over the past 20 years is reviewed, including a comparison with other international models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercom- parison Project （CMIP） from phase 1 （CMIP1） to phase 4 （CMIP4）. The Chinese contribution to CMIP is summarized, and the major achievements from CMIP1 to CMIP3 are listed as a reference for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese models. After a description of CMIP5 experiments, the five Chinese models that participated in CMIP5 are then introduced. Furthermore, following a review of the current status of international model development, both the challenges and opportunities for the Chinese climate modeling community are discussed. The development of high-resolution climate models, earth system mod- els, and improvements in atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models, which are core components of earth/climate system models, are highlighted. To guarantee the sustainable development of climate system models in China, the need for national-level coordination is discussed, along with a list of the main compo- nents and supporting elements identified by the US National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling.展开更多
An experiment using the Community Climate System Model(CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5(CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the...An experiment using the Community Climate System Model(CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5(CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.展开更多
Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM...Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM2.0 aims to meet the demand for seamless climate prediction through accurate climate simulations and projections.This paper provides an overview of SYCIM2.0 and highlights its key features,especially the coupling of an unstructured ocean model and the tuning process.An extensive evaluation of its performance,focusing on the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),is presented based on long-term simulations with fixed external forcing.The results suggest that after nearly 240 years of integration,SYCIM2.0 achieves a quasi-equilibrium state,albeit with small trends in the net radiation flux at the top-of-atmosphere(TOA)and Earth’s surface,as well as with global mean near-surface temperatures.Compared to observational and reanalysis data,the model realistically simulates spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST)and precipitation centers to include their annual cycles,in addition to the lower-level wind fields in the EASM region.However,it exhibits a weakened and eastward-shifted Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH),resulting in an associated precipitation bias.SYCIM2.0 robustly captures the dominant mode of the EASM and its close relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)but exhibits relatively poor performance in simulating the second leading mode and the associated air–sea interaction processes.Further comprehensive evaluations of SYCIM2.0 will be conducted in future studies.展开更多
A new modeling concept, referred to as Modeling Surgery, has been recently developed at University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is specifically designed to diagnose coupled feedbacks between different climate components a...A new modeling concept, referred to as Modeling Surgery, has been recently developed at University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is specifically designed to diagnose coupled feedbacks between different climate components as well as climatic teleconnections within a specific component through systematically modifying the coupling configurations and teleconnective pathways. It thus provides a powerful means for identifying the causes and mechanisms of low-frequency variability in the Earth's climate system. In this paper, we will give a short review of our recent progress in this new area.展开更多
The Earth system is a complex,nonlinear,and highly coupled system that integrates the atmosphere,land,ocean,cryosphere,lithosphere,and biosphere through various physical,chemical,and biological processes.The Earth Sys...The Earth system is a complex,nonlinear,and highly coupled system that integrates the atmosphere,land,ocean,cryosphere,lithosphere,and biosphere through various physical,chemical,and biological processes.The Earth System Model(ESM)is an advanced mathematical-physical representation of this intricate system.It extends beyond the traditional climate system models that focus primarily on the physical representation of atmospheric,terrestrial,and oceanic states,to encompass environmental and ecological dynamics.Consequently,ESMs are essential tools not only for weather and climate prediction but also for studying environmental and ecological evolution,human-induced climate impacts,and strategies in climate and ecological management.展开更多
The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） ex- periments performed by the Beijing Climate Center cli- mate system model （BCC_CSM1.1） is evaluated regard- ing the t...The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） ex- periments performed by the Beijing Climate Center cli- mate system model （BCC_CSM1.1） is evaluated regard- ing the time evolutions of the global and China mean sur- face air temperature （SAT） and surface climate change over China in recent decades. BCC CSM1.1 has better capability at reproducing the time evolutions of the global and China mean SAT than BCC_CSM1.0. By the year 2005, the BCC_CSM1.1 model simulates a warming am- plitude of approximately I℃ in China over the 1961- 1990 mean, which is consistent with observation. The distributions of the warming trend over China in the four seasons during 1958-2004 are basically reproduced by BCC CSM1.1, with the warmest occurring in winter. Al- though the cooling signal of Southwest China in spring is partly reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1, the cooling trend over central eastern China in summer is omitted by the model. For the precipitation change, BCC_CSM1.1 has good performance in spring, with drought in Southeast China. After removing the linear trend, the interannual correlation map between the model and the observation shows that the model has better capability at reproducing the summer SAT over China and spring precipitation over Southeast China.展开更多
Climate sensitivity represents the response of climate system to doubled CO2 concentration relative to the preindustrial level, which is one of the sources of uncertainty in climate projections. It is unclear how the ...Climate sensitivity represents the response of climate system to doubled CO2 concentration relative to the preindustrial level, which is one of the sources of uncertainty in climate projections. It is unclear how the climate sensitivity and feedbacks will change as a model system is upgraded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) to CMIP6. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing two versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) participating in CMIP6 and CMIP5, i.e., BCC-CSM2-MR and BCC-CSM1.1 m,which have the same horizontal resolution but different physical parameterizations. The results show that the equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS) of BCC-CSM slightly increases from CMIP5(2.94 K) to CMIP6(3.04 K). The small changes in the ECS result from compensation between decreased effective radiative forcing(ERF) and the increased net feedback. In contrast, the transient climate response(TCR) evidently decreases from 2.19 to 1.40 K, nearly the lower bound of the CMIP6 multimodel spread. The low TCR in BCC-CSM2-MR is mainly caused by the small ERF overly even though the ocean heat uptake(OHU) efficiency is substantially improved from that in BCC-CSM1.1 m.Cloud shortwave feedback(λSWCL) is found to be the major cause of the increased net feedback in BCC-CSM2-MR,mainly over the Southern Ocean. The strong positive λSWCL in BCC-CSM2-MR is coincidently related to the weakened sea ice-albedo feedback in the same region. This result is caused by reduced sea ice coverage simulated during the preindustrial cold season, which leads to reduced melting per 1-K global warming. As a result, in BCCCSM2-MR, reduced surface heat flux and strengthened static stability of the planetary boundary layer cause a decrease in low-level clouds and an increase in incident shortwave radiation. This study reveals the important compensation between λSWCL and sea ice-albedo feedback in the Southern Ocean.展开更多
This paper evaluates the performance of a coupled general circulation model FGOALS_s1.1 developed by LASG/IAP in simulating the annual modes of tropical precipitation.To understand the impacts of air-sea coupling on t...This paper evaluates the performance of a coupled general circulation model FGOALS_s1.1 developed by LASG/IAP in simulating the annual modes of tropical precipitation.To understand the impacts of air-sea coupling on the annual modes,the result of an off-line simulation of the atmospheric component of FGOALS_s1.1,i.e.,LASG/IAP atmospheric general circulation model SAMIL,is also analyzed.FGOALS_s1.1 can reasonably reproduce major characteristics of the annual mean precipitation.Nonetheless,the coupled model shows overestimation of precipitation over the equatorial Pacific and tropical South Pacific,and underestimation of precipitation over the northern equatorial Pacific.The monsoon mode simulated by FGOALS_s1.1 shows an equatorial anti-symmetric structure,which is consistent with the observation.The bias of the coupled model in simulating monsoon mode resembles that of SAMIL,especially over the subtropics.The main deficiency of FGOALS_s1.1 is its failure in simulating the spring-fall asymmetric mode.This is attributed to the false phase of sea surface temperature anomaly（SSTA） annual cycle over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean,which leads to the bias of the Walker circulation over the equatorial Pacific and the anti-Walker circulation over the Indian Ocean in boreal spring and fall.In addition,the domains of the western North Pacific monsoon and Indian monsoon simulated by the coupled model are smaller than the observation.The study suggests that the bias of the fully coupled oceanatmosphere model can only be partly attributed to the bias of the atmospheric component.The performance of FGOALS_s1.1 in simulating the annual cycle of equatorial SST deserves further improvement.展开更多
Significant changes have occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula(AP) including warmer temperatures, accelerated melting of glaciers, and breakup of ice shelves. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model(W...Significant changes have occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula(AP) including warmer temperatures, accelerated melting of glaciers, and breakup of ice shelves. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)forced by the Community Climate System Model 4(CCSM) simulations to study foehn wind warming in AP. Weather systems responsible for generating the foehn events are two cyclonic systems that move toward and/or cross over AP. WRF simulates the movement of cyclonic systems and the resulting foehn wind warming that is absent in CCSM. It is found that the warming extent along a transect across the central AP toward Larsen C Ice Shelf(LCIS) varies during the simulation period and the maximum warming moves from near the base of leeward slopes to over 40 km away extending toward the attached LCIS. Our analysis suggests that the foehn wind warming is negatively correlated with the incoming air temperature and the mountain top temperature during periods without significant precipitation, in which isentropic drawdown is the dominant heating mechanism. On the other hand, when significant precipitation occurs along the windward side of AP, latent heating is the major heating mechanism evidenced by positive relations between the foehn wind warming and 1) incoming air temperature, 2) windward precipitation, and 3)latent heating. Foehn wind warming caused by isentropic drawdown also tends to be stronger than that caused by latent heating. Comparison of WRF simulations forced by original and corrected CCSM data indicates that foehn wind warming is stronger in the original CCSM forced simulation when no significant windward precipitation is present.The foehn wind warming becomes weaker in both simulations when there is significant windward precipitation. This suggests that model’s ability to resolve the foehn warming varies with the forcing data, but the precipitation impact on the leeward warming is consistent.展开更多
Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991-2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM）, the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China （NEC） and ...Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991-2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM）, the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China （NEC） and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic-analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic-analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） of summer precipitation is respectively improved from -0. 13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009-13/1991-95 when using the equally weighted dynamic-analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.展开更多
The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)has been devoted to developing a climate system model(CSM)to meet demand for climate simulation and prediction for the East Asian region.In this study,we evaluated t...The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)has been devoted to developing a climate system model(CSM)to meet demand for climate simulation and prediction for the East Asian region.In this study,we evaluated the performance of CAMS-CSM in regard to sensible heat flux(H),latent heat flux(LE),surface temperature,soil moisture,and snow depth,focusing on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiment,with the aim of participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6.We systematically assessed the simulation results achieved by CAMS-CSM for these variables against various reference products and ground observations,including the FLUXNET model tree ensembles H and LE data,Climate Prediction Center soil moisture data,snow depth climatology data,and Chinese ground observations of snow depth and winter surface temperature.We compared these results with data from the ECMWF Interim reanalysis(ERA-Interim)and Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS).Our results indicated that CAMS-CSM simulations were better than or comparable to ERA-Interim reanalysis for snow depth and winter surface temperature at regional scales,but slightly worse when simulating total column soil moisture.The root-mean-square differences of H in CAMS-CSM were all greater than those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis,but less than or comparable to those from GLDAS.The spatial correlations for H in CAMS-CSM were the lowest in nearly all regions,except for North America.CAMS-CSM LE produced the lowest bias in Siberia,North America,and South America,but with the lowest spatial correlation coefficients.Therefore,there are still scopes for improving H and LE simulations in CAMS-CSM,particularly for LE.展开更多
As a substitute for the original displaced pole grids, a simple rotated spherical coordinate system was intro duced into the Community Sea Ice Model version 4（CSIM4）, which is a component of the Community Climate Sy...As a substitute for the original displaced pole grids, a simple rotated spherical coordinate system was intro duced into the Community Sea Ice Model version 4（CSIM4）, which is a component of the Community Climate System Model（CCSM） of the American National Center of Atmospheric Researeh（NCAR）, to deal with the ＂pole problems＂. In the new coordinates, both the geographical North Pole and South Pole lie in the model equator and grid sizes near the polar region are more uniform. With reanalysis dataset of American National Centers for Environment Prediction （NCEP） and Levitus dataset without considering sub-mixed layer heat flux, the model was integrated for 100 years with thermodynamics proce.ss involved only in the former 49 years and both dynamic and thermodynamic processes involved in the left time. Inner consistency of model results was checked with no contradiction found. The results of last 10 years＇ model output were analyzed and it is shown that the simulated sea ice seasonal variation is rational whereas sea ice extent in the Barcnts Sea in winter is larger than that of observation, Numerical experiment on influence of sub-mixed layer heat flux was also carried out and it is shown that the sub-mixed layer heat flux can modulate seasonal variation of sea ice greatly. As a model component, the sea ice model with rotated spherical coordinates was coupled with other models （the oceanic general cir culation model is the LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model （LICOM） with reduced grid, other models are components of NCAR CCSM2） forming a climate system model and its preliminary results were also given briefly.展开更多
基金jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)[grant number 42130608]the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[grant number 2024M753169]。
文摘Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.
基金The Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.XDA05110201the National Basic Research Program(973 Program) of China under contract No.2010CB951901
文摘On the basis of more than 200-year control run, the performance of the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS-ESM-C） in simulating the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） cycle is evalu- ated, including the onset, development and decay of the ENSO. It is shown that, the model can reasonably simulate the annual cycle and interannual variability of sea surface temperature （SST） in the tropical Pacif- ic, as well as the seasonal phase-locking of the ENSO. The model also captures two prerequisites for the E1 Nino onset, i.e., a westerly anomaly and a warm SST anomaly in the equatorial western Pacific. Owing to too strong forcing from an extratropical meridional wind, however, the westerly anomaly in this region is largely overestimated. Moreover, the simulated thermocline is much shallower with a weaker slope. As a result, the warm SST anomaly from the western Pacific propagates eastward more quickly, leading to a faster develop- ment of an E1 Nino. During the decay stage, owing to a stronger E1Nino in the model, the secondary Gill-type response of the tropical atmosphere to the eastern Pacific warming is much stronger, thereby resulting in a persistent easterly anomaly in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, a cold anomaly in the warm pool appears as a result of a lifted thermocline via Ekman pumping. Finally, an E1 Nino decays into a La Nina through their interactions. In addition, the shorter period and larger amplitude of the ENSO in the model can be attribut- ed to a shallower thermocline in the equatorial Pacific, which speeds up the zonal redistribution of a heat content in the upper ocean.
基金supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(973 Program)under Grant No.2010CB951903the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40890054,41205043,and 41105054
文摘A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature responses to specified external forcing agents in a millennium-scale transient climate simulation with the fast version of LASG IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS-gl） developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （LASG/IAP）. The model presents a reasonable performance in comparison with reconstructions of surface temperature. Differentiated from significant changes in the 20th century at the global scale, changes during the natural-forcing-dominant period are mainly manifested in the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonally, modeled significant changes are more pronounced during the wintertime at higher latitudes. This may be a manifestation of polar amplification associated with sea-ice-temperature positive feedback. The climate responses to total external forcings can explain about half of the climate variance during the whole millennium period, especially at decadal timescales. Surface temperature in the Antarctic shows heterogeneous and insignificant changes during the preindustrial period and the climate response to external forcings is undetectable due to the strong internal variability. The model response to specified external forcings is modulated by cloud radiative forcing （CRF）. The CRF acts against the fluctuations of external forcings. Effects of clouds are manifested in shortwave radiation by changes in cloud water during the natural-forcing-dominant period, but mainly in longwave radiation by a decrease in cloud amount in the ant hropogenic- forcing-dominant period.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2019YFC1510001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91637210)+1 种基金the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(Grant No.2018Z007)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘This paper describes the historical simulations produced by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)climate system model(CAMS-CSM),which are contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).The model description,experiment design and model outputs are presented.Three members’historical experiments are conducted by CAMS-CSM,with two members starting from different initial conditions,and one excluding the stratospheric aerosol to identify the effect of volcanic eruptions.The outputs of the historical experiments are also validated using observational data.It is found that the model can reproduce the climatological mean states and seasonal cycle of the major climate system quantities,including the surface air temperature,precipitation,and the equatorial thermocline.The long-term trend of air temperature and precipitation is also reasonably captured by CAMS-CSM.There are still some biases in the model that need further improvement.This paper can help the users to better understand the performance and the datasets of CAMS-CSM.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) under No. 2010CB951903the National Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 41105054, 41205043the China Meteorological Administration under Grant No.GYHY201106022, GYHY201306048, CMAYBY2012-001
文摘The climate system models from Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main information on the experiments including the experiment purpose, design, and the external forcings. The transient climate responses to the CO2 concentration increase at 1% per year are presented in the simulation of the two models. The BCC_CSM1.1-M result is closer to the CMIP5 multiple models ensemble. The two models perform well in simulating the historical evolution of the surface air temperature, globally and averaged for China. Both models overestimate the global warming and underestimate the warming over China in the 20th century. With higher horizontal resolution, the BCC_CSM1.1-M has a better capability in reproducing the annual evolution of surface air temperature over China.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342228)the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences(Grant No.2020YFA0608902)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.92358302,and 42242018)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB0500303).
文摘In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.
基金Supported by the National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2010CB951902)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201306020)
文摘This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM） and its four component models （atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice）. Two recent versions are described： BCC_CSMI.1 with coarse resolution （approximately 2.8125°× 2.8125°） and BCC_CSMI.I（m） with moderate resolution （approximately 1.125°×1.125°）. Both versions are fully cou- pled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC_CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five （CMIP5） in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （1PCC） Fifth Assessment Report （AR5）. These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMI.1 and BCC_CSMI.I（m） are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC_CSMI.1 and BCC_CSMI.I（m） perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses in- dicate that the higher resolution in BCC CSMI.I（m） improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC_CSMI.1, particularly on regional scales.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFE0102400)National Natural Science Foundation of China(91637210 and 91737306)Basic Research Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2018Z007)
文摘A new coupled climate system model(CSM) has been developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS) by employing several state-of-the-art component models. The coupled CAMS-CSM consists of the modified atmospheric model [ECmwf-HAMburg(ECHAM5)], ocean model [Modular Ocean Model(MOM4)], sea ice model [Sea Ice Simulator(SIS)], and land surface model [Common Land Model(CoLM)]. A detailed model description is presented and both the pre-industrial and "historical" simulations are preliminarily evaluated in this study.The model can reproduce the climatological mean states and seasonal cycles of the major climate system quantities,including the sea surface temperature, precipitation, sea ice extent, and the equatorial thermocline. The major climate variability modes are also reasonably captured by the CAMS-CSM, such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO), El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO), East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).The model shows a promising ability to simulate the EASM variability and the ENSO–EASM relationship. Some biases still exist, such as the false double-intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ) in the annual mean precipitation field,the overestimated ENSO amplitude, and the weakened Bjerknes feedback associated with ENSO; and thus the CAMS-CSM needs further improvements.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41125017 and 41330423)LASG/IAP Funding for the Development of Climate System Model
文摘The development of coupled earth/climate system models in China over the past 20 years is reviewed, including a comparison with other international models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercom- parison Project （CMIP） from phase 1 （CMIP1） to phase 4 （CMIP4）. The Chinese contribution to CMIP is summarized, and the major achievements from CMIP1 to CMIP3 are listed as a reference for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese models. After a description of CMIP5 experiments, the five Chinese models that participated in CMIP5 are then introduced. Furthermore, following a review of the current status of international model development, both the challenges and opportunities for the Chinese climate modeling community are discussed. The development of high-resolution climate models, earth system mod- els, and improvements in atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models, which are core components of earth/climate system models, are highlighted. To guarantee the sustainable development of climate system models in China, the need for national-level coordination is discussed, along with a list of the main compo- nents and supporting elements identified by the US National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2012CB956000)the Strategic Priority Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA11010301)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41421005,U1406401)the Public Welfare Grant of China Meteorological Administration(No.GYHY201306018)the Global Change and Air-Sea Interactions of State Oceanic Administration(No.GASI-03-01-01-05)
文摘An experiment using the Community Climate System Model(CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5(CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U21A6001,42261144687,42175173)the Project supported by Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(Grant No.SML2023SP208)the GuangDong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515240036).
文摘Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM2.0 aims to meet the demand for seamless climate prediction through accurate climate simulations and projections.This paper provides an overview of SYCIM2.0 and highlights its key features,especially the coupling of an unstructured ocean model and the tuning process.An extensive evaluation of its performance,focusing on the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),is presented based on long-term simulations with fixed external forcing.The results suggest that after nearly 240 years of integration,SYCIM2.0 achieves a quasi-equilibrium state,albeit with small trends in the net radiation flux at the top-of-atmosphere(TOA)and Earth’s surface,as well as with global mean near-surface temperatures.Compared to observational and reanalysis data,the model realistically simulates spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST)and precipitation centers to include their annual cycles,in addition to the lower-level wind fields in the EASM region.However,it exhibits a weakened and eastward-shifted Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH),resulting in an associated precipitation bias.SYCIM2.0 robustly captures the dominant mode of the EASM and its close relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)but exhibits relatively poor performance in simulating the second leading mode and the associated air–sea interaction processes.Further comprehensive evaluations of SYCIM2.0 will be conducted in future studies.
文摘A new modeling concept, referred to as Modeling Surgery, has been recently developed at University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is specifically designed to diagnose coupled feedbacks between different climate components as well as climatic teleconnections within a specific component through systematically modifying the coupling configurations and teleconnective pathways. It thus provides a powerful means for identifying the causes and mechanisms of low-frequency variability in the Earth's climate system. In this paper, we will give a short review of our recent progress in this new area.
基金Supported by the National Large Scientific and Technological InfrastructureEarth System Numerical Simulation Facility and National Natural Science Foundation of China(41991282).
文摘The Earth system is a complex,nonlinear,and highly coupled system that integrates the atmosphere,land,ocean,cryosphere,lithosphere,and biosphere through various physical,chemical,and biological processes.The Earth System Model(ESM)is an advanced mathematical-physical representation of this intricate system.It extends beyond the traditional climate system models that focus primarily on the physical representation of atmospheric,terrestrial,and oceanic states,to encompass environmental and ecological dynamics.Consequently,ESMs are essential tools not only for weather and climate prediction but also for studying environmental and ecological evolution,human-induced climate impacts,and strategies in climate and ecological management.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program,2010CB951903)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41105054)the China Meteorological Administration (GYHY200706010)
文摘The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） ex- periments performed by the Beijing Climate Center cli- mate system model （BCC_CSM1.1） is evaluated regard- ing the time evolutions of the global and China mean sur- face air temperature （SAT） and surface climate change over China in recent decades. BCC CSM1.1 has better capability at reproducing the time evolutions of the global and China mean SAT than BCC_CSM1.0. By the year 2005, the BCC_CSM1.1 model simulates a warming am- plitude of approximately I℃ in China over the 1961- 1990 mean, which is consistent with observation. The distributions of the warming trend over China in the four seasons during 1958-2004 are basically reproduced by BCC CSM1.1, with the warmest occurring in winter. Al- though the cooling signal of Southwest China in spring is partly reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1, the cooling trend over central eastern China in summer is omitted by the model. For the precipitation change, BCC_CSM1.1 has good performance in spring, with drought in Southeast China. After removing the linear trend, the interannual correlation map between the model and the observation shows that the model has better capability at reproducing the summer SAT over China and spring precipitation over Southeast China.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0602602 and 2017YFA0603503)National Natural Science Foundation of China (41605057)。
文摘Climate sensitivity represents the response of climate system to doubled CO2 concentration relative to the preindustrial level, which is one of the sources of uncertainty in climate projections. It is unclear how the climate sensitivity and feedbacks will change as a model system is upgraded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) to CMIP6. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing two versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) participating in CMIP6 and CMIP5, i.e., BCC-CSM2-MR and BCC-CSM1.1 m,which have the same horizontal resolution but different physical parameterizations. The results show that the equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS) of BCC-CSM slightly increases from CMIP5(2.94 K) to CMIP6(3.04 K). The small changes in the ECS result from compensation between decreased effective radiative forcing(ERF) and the increased net feedback. In contrast, the transient climate response(TCR) evidently decreases from 2.19 to 1.40 K, nearly the lower bound of the CMIP6 multimodel spread. The low TCR in BCC-CSM2-MR is mainly caused by the small ERF overly even though the ocean heat uptake(OHU) efficiency is substantially improved from that in BCC-CSM1.1 m.Cloud shortwave feedback(λSWCL) is found to be the major cause of the increased net feedback in BCC-CSM2-MR,mainly over the Southern Ocean. The strong positive λSWCL in BCC-CSM2-MR is coincidently related to the weakened sea ice-albedo feedback in the same region. This result is caused by reduced sea ice coverage simulated during the preindustrial cold season, which leads to reduced melting per 1-K global warming. As a result, in BCCCSM2-MR, reduced surface heat flux and strengthened static stability of the planetary boundary layer cause a decrease in low-level clouds and an increase in incident shortwave radiation. This study reveals the important compensation between λSWCL and sea ice-albedo feedback in the Southern Ocean.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40625014, 40628006, and 40523001the China Meteorological Administration under Grant Nos. GYHY200706005 and GYHY200706010
文摘This paper evaluates the performance of a coupled general circulation model FGOALS_s1.1 developed by LASG/IAP in simulating the annual modes of tropical precipitation.To understand the impacts of air-sea coupling on the annual modes,the result of an off-line simulation of the atmospheric component of FGOALS_s1.1,i.e.,LASG/IAP atmospheric general circulation model SAMIL,is also analyzed.FGOALS_s1.1 can reasonably reproduce major characteristics of the annual mean precipitation.Nonetheless,the coupled model shows overestimation of precipitation over the equatorial Pacific and tropical South Pacific,and underestimation of precipitation over the northern equatorial Pacific.The monsoon mode simulated by FGOALS_s1.1 shows an equatorial anti-symmetric structure,which is consistent with the observation.The bias of the coupled model in simulating monsoon mode resembles that of SAMIL,especially over the subtropics.The main deficiency of FGOALS_s1.1 is its failure in simulating the spring-fall asymmetric mode.This is attributed to the false phase of sea surface temperature anomaly（SSTA） annual cycle over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean,which leads to the bias of the Walker circulation over the equatorial Pacific and the anti-Walker circulation over the Indian Ocean in boreal spring and fall.In addition,the domains of the western North Pacific monsoon and Indian monsoon simulated by the coupled model are smaller than the observation.The study suggests that the bias of the fully coupled oceanatmosphere model can only be partly attributed to the bias of the atmospheric component.The performance of FGOALS_s1.1 in simulating the annual cycle of equatorial SST deserves further improvement.
基金sponsored by the US NSF Grants OPP-1649713 and OPP-1543445
文摘Significant changes have occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula(AP) including warmer temperatures, accelerated melting of glaciers, and breakup of ice shelves. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)forced by the Community Climate System Model 4(CCSM) simulations to study foehn wind warming in AP. Weather systems responsible for generating the foehn events are two cyclonic systems that move toward and/or cross over AP. WRF simulates the movement of cyclonic systems and the resulting foehn wind warming that is absent in CCSM. It is found that the warming extent along a transect across the central AP toward Larsen C Ice Shelf(LCIS) varies during the simulation period and the maximum warming moves from near the base of leeward slopes to over 40 km away extending toward the attached LCIS. Our analysis suggests that the foehn wind warming is negatively correlated with the incoming air temperature and the mountain top temperature during periods without significant precipitation, in which isentropic drawdown is the dominant heating mechanism. On the other hand, when significant precipitation occurs along the windward side of AP, latent heating is the major heating mechanism evidenced by positive relations between the foehn wind warming and 1) incoming air temperature, 2) windward precipitation, and 3)latent heating. Foehn wind warming caused by isentropic drawdown also tends to be stronger than that caused by latent heating. Comparison of WRF simulations forced by original and corrected CCSM data indicates that foehn wind warming is stronger in the original CCSM forced simulation when no significant windward precipitation is present.The foehn wind warming becomes weaker in both simulations when there is significant windward precipitation. This suggests that model’s ability to resolve the foehn warming varies with the forcing data, but the precipitation impact on the leeward warming is consistent.
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Research Project of Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau(201502)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)+1 种基金Liaoning Province Agricultural Research and Industrialization Project(2015103038)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research(GYHY201306021)
文摘Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991-2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM）, the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China （NEC） and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic-analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic-analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） of summer precipitation is respectively improved from -0. 13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009-13/1991-95 when using the equally weighted dynamic-analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation for Young Scientists of China(41505010 and 41605073)Basic Research Special Project of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2017Y015 and 2017Y008)
文摘The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS)has been devoted to developing a climate system model(CSM)to meet demand for climate simulation and prediction for the East Asian region.In this study,we evaluated the performance of CAMS-CSM in regard to sensible heat flux(H),latent heat flux(LE),surface temperature,soil moisture,and snow depth,focusing on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiment,with the aim of participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6.We systematically assessed the simulation results achieved by CAMS-CSM for these variables against various reference products and ground observations,including the FLUXNET model tree ensembles H and LE data,Climate Prediction Center soil moisture data,snow depth climatology data,and Chinese ground observations of snow depth and winter surface temperature.We compared these results with data from the ECMWF Interim reanalysis(ERA-Interim)and Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS).Our results indicated that CAMS-CSM simulations were better than or comparable to ERA-Interim reanalysis for snow depth and winter surface temperature at regional scales,but slightly worse when simulating total column soil moisture.The root-mean-square differences of H in CAMS-CSM were all greater than those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis,but less than or comparable to those from GLDAS.The spatial correlations for H in CAMS-CSM were the lowest in nearly all regions,except for North America.CAMS-CSM LE produced the lowest bias in Siberia,North America,and South America,but with the lowest spatial correlation coefficients.Therefore,there are still scopes for improving H and LE simulations in CAMS-CSM,particularly for LE.
文摘As a substitute for the original displaced pole grids, a simple rotated spherical coordinate system was intro duced into the Community Sea Ice Model version 4（CSIM4）, which is a component of the Community Climate System Model（CCSM） of the American National Center of Atmospheric Researeh（NCAR）, to deal with the ＂pole problems＂. In the new coordinates, both the geographical North Pole and South Pole lie in the model equator and grid sizes near the polar region are more uniform. With reanalysis dataset of American National Centers for Environment Prediction （NCEP） and Levitus dataset without considering sub-mixed layer heat flux, the model was integrated for 100 years with thermodynamics proce.ss involved only in the former 49 years and both dynamic and thermodynamic processes involved in the left time. Inner consistency of model results was checked with no contradiction found. The results of last 10 years＇ model output were analyzed and it is shown that the simulated sea ice seasonal variation is rational whereas sea ice extent in the Barcnts Sea in winter is larger than that of observation, Numerical experiment on influence of sub-mixed layer heat flux was also carried out and it is shown that the sub-mixed layer heat flux can modulate seasonal variation of sea ice greatly. As a model component, the sea ice model with rotated spherical coordinates was coupled with other models （the oceanic general cir culation model is the LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model （LICOM） with reduced grid, other models are components of NCAR CCSM2） forming a climate system model and its preliminary results were also given briefly.
