Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective...Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040;2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.展开更多
Regional Climate Models are important tools, which are increasingly being used in studies of impacts and adaptation to climate change at local scale. The goal of this work is to assess the climate change over the La P...Regional Climate Models are important tools, which are increasingly being used in studies of impacts and adaptation to climate change at local scale. The goal of this work is to assess the climate change over the La Plata Basin, using the Eta Regional model with a resolution of 10 km. Initial and boundary conditions used by the model are provided by the Eta-20 km model and the HadGEM2-ES Global model. The RCP 4.5 scenario was used for simulations of the future climate. The evaluation of the present climate (1961-1990) shows that the model represents well the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature in the region. The model underestimates precipitation over large areas in summer, and overestimates in Southern Brazil in winter. Simulated temperature shows a good correlation with CRU data, with bias less than 1°C. The bias of temperature and precipitation in this simulation setup for the La Plata Basin is substantially reduced in comparison with previous literature using regional models. The climatic projections are shown in timeslices: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. In the three timeslices, the simulation project has a trend for an increase in precipitation during summer in Argentina, Uruguay, and southernmost Brazil. This increase is only projected in Southern Brazil during winter. The negative anomaly of precipitation appears in a large portion of the model domain during summer and is limited to some states in Southeast and Central-West Brazil in winter. The area with largest warming is projected in the northern portion of the domain. The projected increase in temperature reaches about 4°C in 2071-2099.展开更多
According to the latest research of ecosystem service（ ES）,the background and connotation of ecosystem services were briefly summarized,the relationship among human activity,climate change,and biodiversity and ecosy...According to the latest research of ecosystem service（ ES）,the background and connotation of ecosystem services were briefly summarized,the relationship among human activity,climate change,and biodiversity and ecosystem service function（ ESF） was synthetically analyzed,the research trends of ecosystem services function assessment（ ESFA） were discussed from multi-scale,and the perspectives was given based on the past studies. The ecological long-term location monitoring method based on the ESFA should be studied,evaluation index of ESFA should be further improved,and the ESF research on the arid region should be reinforced.展开更多
This paper introduces the process of development and practical use implementation of an advanced river management system for supporting integrated water resources management practices in Asian river basins under the f...This paper introduces the process of development and practical use implementation of an advanced river management system for supporting integrated water resources management practices in Asian river basins under the framework of GEOSS Asia water cycle initiative （AWCI）. The system is based on integration of data from earth observation satellites and in-situ networks with other types of data, including numerical weather prediction model outputs, climate model outputs, geographical infor- mation, and socio-economic data. The system builds on the water and energy budget distributed hydrological model （WEB-DHM） that was adapted for specific conditions of studied basins, in particular snow and glacier phenomena and equipped with other functions such as dam operation optimization scheme and a set of tools for climate change impact assess- ment to be able to generate relevant information for policy and decision makers. In situ data were archived for 18 selected ba- sins at the Data Integration and Analysis System （DIAS） of Japan and demonstration projects were carded out showing poten- tial of the new system. It included climate change impact assessment on hydrological regimes, which is presently a critical step for sound management decisions. Results of such three case studies in Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam are provided here.展开更多
基金the Brazilian Ministry of Science,Technology,and Innovation for supporting the work through Global Environmental Facility funding(UNDP BRA/10/G32)the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development(CNPq)for the grants 308035/2013-5 and 400792/2012-5
文摘Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040;2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.
文摘Regional Climate Models are important tools, which are increasingly being used in studies of impacts and adaptation to climate change at local scale. The goal of this work is to assess the climate change over the La Plata Basin, using the Eta Regional model with a resolution of 10 km. Initial and boundary conditions used by the model are provided by the Eta-20 km model and the HadGEM2-ES Global model. The RCP 4.5 scenario was used for simulations of the future climate. The evaluation of the present climate (1961-1990) shows that the model represents well the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature in the region. The model underestimates precipitation over large areas in summer, and overestimates in Southern Brazil in winter. Simulated temperature shows a good correlation with CRU data, with bias less than 1°C. The bias of temperature and precipitation in this simulation setup for the La Plata Basin is substantially reduced in comparison with previous literature using regional models. The climatic projections are shown in timeslices: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. In the three timeslices, the simulation project has a trend for an increase in precipitation during summer in Argentina, Uruguay, and southernmost Brazil. This increase is only projected in Southern Brazil during winter. The negative anomaly of precipitation appears in a large portion of the model domain during summer and is limited to some states in Southeast and Central-West Brazil in winter. The area with largest warming is projected in the northern portion of the domain. The projected increase in temperature reaches about 4°C in 2071-2099.
基金Supported by Science Research Item of Hubei Environmental Protection Agency,China(2013HB03)
文摘According to the latest research of ecosystem service（ ES）,the background and connotation of ecosystem services were briefly summarized,the relationship among human activity,climate change,and biodiversity and ecosystem service function（ ESF） was synthetically analyzed,the research trends of ecosystem services function assessment（ ESFA） were discussed from multi-scale,and the perspectives was given based on the past studies. The ecological long-term location monitoring method based on the ESFA should be studied,evaluation index of ESFA should be further improved,and the ESF research on the arid region should be reinforced.
基金the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research(APN)for financial support of the AWCI activities through several projects funded under the APN programmes
文摘This paper introduces the process of development and practical use implementation of an advanced river management system for supporting integrated water resources management practices in Asian river basins under the framework of GEOSS Asia water cycle initiative （AWCI）. The system is based on integration of data from earth observation satellites and in-situ networks with other types of data, including numerical weather prediction model outputs, climate model outputs, geographical infor- mation, and socio-economic data. The system builds on the water and energy budget distributed hydrological model （WEB-DHM） that was adapted for specific conditions of studied basins, in particular snow and glacier phenomena and equipped with other functions such as dam operation optimization scheme and a set of tools for climate change impact assess- ment to be able to generate relevant information for policy and decision makers. In situ data were archived for 18 selected ba- sins at the Data Integration and Analysis System （DIAS） of Japan and demonstration projects were carded out showing poten- tial of the new system. It included climate change impact assessment on hydrological regimes, which is presently a critical step for sound management decisions. Results of such three case studies in Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam are provided here.
